CN110197320B - Power distribution network overload risk assessment method with multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch - Google Patents

Power distribution network overload risk assessment method with multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch Download PDF

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CN110197320B
CN110197320B CN201910275827.6A CN201910275827A CN110197320B CN 110197320 B CN110197320 B CN 110197320B CN 201910275827 A CN201910275827 A CN 201910275827A CN 110197320 B CN110197320 B CN 110197320B
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distribution network
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power distribution
flexible multi
state switch
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CN110197320A (en
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王朝亮
徐习东
杨勇
陆翌
刘云栋
许烽
宣佳卓
陈骞
倪晓军
丁超
郑眉
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Zhejiang University ZJU
State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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Zhejiang University ZJU
State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a power distribution network overload risk assessment method with a multi-end flexible multi-state switch. According to the method, the overload risk index of the power distribution network is calculated by a mathematical analysis method under the condition that the time sequence load probability model of each feeder line and the capacity configuration of each end of the flexible multi-state switch are known for the power distribution network with the flexible multi-state switch connected to the tail ends of the feeder lines. The method can compare the influence of different capacity configuration schemes of the flexible multi-state switch on the overload risk of the distribution network under the condition of determining the time sequence load probability model of each feeder line, can judge whether the distribution network needs to be provided with the flexible multi-state switch or not and determine the capacity configuration of the flexible multi-state switch under the condition of not needing additional known conditions, and has great significance for the planning of the flexible multi-state switch.

Description

Power distribution network overload risk assessment method with multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power distribution network overload risk assessment, and particularly relates to a power distribution network overload risk assessment method with a multi-end flexible multi-state switch.
Background
In recent years, with the rise of new power devices and the continuous abundant power demand of users, flexible power distribution equipment represented by flexible multi-state switches has been rapidly developed. The flexible multi-state switch has flexible power flow control capability, can effectively improve the flexibility, economy and reliability of operation control of the power distribution network, and meets the customized power requirements of distributed power supply consumption, high power quality, high power supply reliability and the like.
The traditional method for evaluating the overload risk of the distribution network mainly comprises a simulation method and an analysis method. The simulation method utilizes a load distribution model of each feeder line, and obtains overload risk indexes on the basis of massive calculation through a Monte Carlo method, so that the operation time is long, and the result accuracy is difficult to guarantee; after the flexible multi-state switch appears, the traditional analysis method cannot solve the problem of flow mutual aid among multiple feeder lines and is not applicable any more.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems in the prior art, the invention provides an overload risk assessment method for a power distribution network with a multi-end flexible multi-state switch, which can quickly calculate overload risk indexes of the power distribution network under different capacity configuration schemes of the flexible multi-state switch so as to guide reasonable selection of capacities of all ends of the flexible multi-state switch.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: an overload risk assessment method for a power distribution network with a multi-end flexible multi-state switch is characterized in that the overload risk index of the power distribution network with the flexible multi-state switch connected to the tail ends of a plurality of feeder lines is calculated through a mathematical analysis method under the condition that a time sequence load probability model of each feeder line and the capacity configuration of each end of the flexible multi-state switch are known, namely the average overload state probability piOLAnd an expected starved power EENS.
The method can compare the influence of different capacity configuration schemes of the flexible multi-state switch on the overload risk of the distribution network under the condition of determining the time sequence load probability model of each feeder line, can judge whether the distribution network needs to be provided with the flexible multi-state switch or not and determine the capacity configuration of the flexible multi-state switch under the condition of not needing additional known conditions, and has great significance for the planning of the flexible multi-state switch.
Further, the method for evaluating the overload risk of the power distribution network with the multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch comprises the following steps: establishing a normal distribution probability model of each feeder line; dividing the single feeder into 4 states according to the load size and calculating the probability in each state; distribution network state partitioning into 4nCalculating the probability of the power distribution network in each state; solving overload state probability pi of power distribution network under each statefail|kAnd expected starved power EENSk(ii) a Respectively calculating overload risk index pi of power distribution network by utilizing total probability formula and summation formulaOLAnd an expected starved power EENS.
Furthermore, the specific process of the power distribution network overload risk assessment method with the multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch is as follows:
step 1: dividing a balance into 24 time periods, and setting the second feeder line for n feeder lines independent of each other among loadsThe active load of the i feeder lines in the time period t is PLi(t)，PLi(t) the parameter of the normal distribution whose size satisfies is μi(t)、σi(t) then PLiThe probability model of (t) is represented by:
Figure BDA0002019927940000021
step 2: according to the active load P of the ith feeder lineLi(t) upper limit of feeder transmission power PNiAnd the flexible multi-state switch capacity P of the terminalSNiFor the ith feeder state S of the t time periodi(t) is divided into the following four states:
Figure BDA0002019927940000031
and step 3: let the ith feeder line be at AjThe probability of (j ═ 1,2,3,4) state is piij(t), calculated from the formula:
πij(t)＝π{Si(t)＝Aj}；
and 4, step 4: distribution network of flexible multi-state switch connected with n feeder lines coexists 4nA combination of states, set asikFor the state of the ith feeder line under the kth state combination of the power distribution network, calculating the probability pi of the power distribution network in the kth state combination according to the following formulak(t)：
Figure BDA0002019927940000032
And 5: calculating the overload state probability pi of the power distribution network under the kth state combination according to the following formulafail|k(t)：
Figure BDA0002019927940000033
Step 6: calculating the expected shortage of the distribution network in the kth state combination by the following formulaElectric quantity EENSk：
Figure BDA0002019927940000034
And 7: if the distribution network under the kth state combination is sequentially provided with r feeders in the state A1S feeder lines are in state A2Or A3U feeders in state A4，r+s+u＝n，ΩkFor the load space with overload under the kth state combination, the probability pi that the power distribution network is in the state combination k and is overloaded is calculated by the following multiple integralsfail,k(t) and expected starved power E (t):
Figure BDA0002019927940000041
Figure BDA0002019927940000044
and 8: calculating the average overload state probability pi of the overload risk index of the power distribution network according to the following formulaOLAnd expected starved power EENS:
Figure BDA0002019927940000042
Figure BDA0002019927940000043
according to the method, on the premise that a time sequence normal distribution probability model of the feeder loads is known, the states of the distribution network are divided according to the sizes of the feeder loads, calculation of distribution network overload risk indexes is simplified, and the calculation speed is increased.
Compared with the existing assessment method, the assessment method for the overload risk of the power distribution network with the multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch has the advantages that: by the method for dividing the distribution network state, the overload risk index of the distribution network with the multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch is quickly calculated, so that analytical expressions among the capacity of each terminal, the load probability density of each terminal and the overload risk of the distribution network are established, and the method has guiding significance for selecting the capacity of the flexible multi-state switch.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a topology of a power distribution network including a multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the state division of a single feeder according to the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process of evaluating overload risk of a power distribution network including a multi-state flexible multi-state switch according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the drawings and the detailed description.
A power distribution network overload risk assessment method with a multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch comprises the following specific processes:
step 1: dividing a balance into 24 time periods, and aiming at n feeders independent of loads, setting the active load of the ith feeder in the time period t as PLi(t)，PLi(t) the parameter of the normal distribution whose size satisfies is μi(t)、σi(t) then PLiThe probability model of (t) is represented by:
Figure BDA0002019927940000051
step 2: according to the active load P of the ith feeder lineLi(t) upper limit of feeder transmission power PNiAnd the flexible multi-state switch capacity P of the terminalSNiFor the ith feeder state S of the t time periodi(t) is divided into the following four states:
Figure BDA0002019927940000052
and step 3: let the ith feeder line be at AjThe probability of (j ═ 1,2,3,4) state is piij(t) Calculated from the following equation:
πij(t)＝π{Si(t)＝Aj}；
and 4, step 4: distribution network of flexible multi-state switch connected with n feeder lines coexists 4nA combination of states, set asikFor the state of the ith feeder line under the kth state combination of the power distribution network, calculating the probability pi of the power distribution network in the kth state combination according to the following formulak(t)：
Figure BDA0002019927940000053
And 5: calculating the overload state probability pi of the power distribution network under the kth state combination according to the following formulafail|k(t)：
Figure BDA0002019927940000061
Step 6: calculating the expected power shortage EENS of the distribution network under the kth state combination according to the following formulak：
Figure BDA0002019927940000062
And 7: if the distribution network under the kth state combination is sequentially provided with r feeders in the state A1S feeder lines are in state A2Or A3U feeders in state A4，r+s+u＝n，ΩkFor the load space with overload under the kth state combination, the probability pi that the power distribution network is in the state combination k and is overloaded is calculated by the following multiple integralsfail,k(t) and expected starved power E (t):
Figure BDA0002019927940000063
Figure BDA0002019927940000064
and 8: calculating the average overload state probability pi of the overload risk index of the power distribution network according to the following formulaOLAnd expected starved power EENS:
Figure BDA0002019927940000065
Figure BDA0002019927940000066
the topological structure of the power distribution network containing the three-terminal flexible multi-state switch is shown in figure 1, and the distribution parameter mu of a normal distribution probability model is obtained from historical data of the load of each feeder linei(t)、σi(t) active load P according to feeder line as shown in FIG. 2LiUpper limit of transmission power of feeder line PNiAnd flexible multi-state switch port capacity PSNiThe state S of each feeder line in each time segmenti(t) division into A1、A2、A3、A4Dividing the state of the power distribution network into 64 types and calculating the probability pi of the power distribution network in each state in turnk(t) calculating the overload state probability pi of the power distribution network in different states through multiple integralsfail|k(t) and expected starved power EENSk(t) respectively calculating the average overload state probability pi of the power distribution network by a total probability formula and a summation formulaOLAnd the expected starved power EENS, the entire flow is shown in FIG. 3.
While the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, it should be understood that the above description should not be taken as limiting the invention. Various modifications and alterations to this invention will become apparent to those skilled in the art upon reading the foregoing description. Accordingly, the scope of the invention should be determined from the following claims.

Claims (1)

1. A power distribution network overload risk assessment method containing a multi-terminal flexible multi-state switch is characterized in that the method comprises the following steps ofThe method comprises the steps that the tail ends of a plurality of feeders are connected with a power distribution network of a flexible multi-state switch, and under the condition that a time sequence load probability model of each feeder and the capacity configuration of each end of the flexible multi-state switch are known, an overload risk index of the power distribution network, namely an average overload state probability pi is calculated through a mathematical analysis methodOLAnd an expected starved power EENS;
the specific process of the power distribution network overload risk assessment method is as follows:
step 1: dividing a balance into 24 time periods, and aiming at n feeders independent of loads, setting the active load of the ith feeder in the time period t as PLi(t)，PLi(t) the parameter of the normal distribution whose size satisfies is μi(t)、σi(t) then PLiThe probability model of (t) is represented by:
Figure FDA0003004118720000011
step 2: according to the active load P of the ith feeder lineLi(t) upper limit of feeder transmission power PNiAnd the flexible multi-state switch capacity P of the terminalSNiFor the ith feeder state S of the t time periodi(t) is divided into the following four states:
Figure FDA0003004118720000012
and step 3: let the ith feeder line be at AjThe probability of (j ═ 1,2,3,4) state is piij(t), calculated from the formula:
πij(t)＝π{Si(t)＝Aj}；
and 4, step 4: distribution network of flexible multi-state switch connected with n feeder lines coexists 4nA combination of states, set asikFor the state of the ith feeder line under the kth state combination of the power distribution network, calculating the probability pi of the power distribution network in the kth state combination according to the following formulak(t)：
Figure FDA0003004118720000021
And 5: calculating the overload state probability pi of the power distribution network under the kth state combination according to the following formulafail|k(t)：
Figure FDA0003004118720000022
Step 6: calculating the expected power shortage EENS of the distribution network under the kth state combination according to the following formulak：
Figure FDA0003004118720000023
And 7: if the distribution network under the kth state combination is sequentially provided with r feeders in the state A1S feeder lines are in state A2Or A3U feeders in state A4，r+s+u＝n，ΩkFor the load space with overload under the kth state combination, the probability pi that the power distribution network is in the state combination k and is overloaded is calculated by the following multiple integralsfail,k(t) and expected starved power E (t):
Figure FDA0003004118720000024
Figure FDA0003004118720000025
and 8: calculating the average overload state probability pi of the overload risk index of the power distribution network according to the following formulaOLAnd expected starved power EENS:
Figure FDA0003004118720000026
Figure FDA0003004118720000027
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