CN107370157B - Power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on power flow entropy - Google Patents
Power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on power flow entropy Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on a power flow entropy. The method comprises the following steps: (1) acquiring operation parameters of each element of a power grid; (2) carrying out uncertainty sampling on the running state of the power grid; (3) calculating the power flow entropy of the power grid and the available transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after sampling; (4) judging whether a sampling termination condition is reached; (5) establishing an available transmission capacity risk benefit model; (6) and generating an available transmission capacity decision model by combining the power flow entropy, and determining an optimal release value according to the model. The decision model combining the power grid power flow entropy and the available transmission capacity risk benefit model is creatively established, the operation state and the risk benefit of the power grid system are comprehensively considered, and the decision is made on the available transmission capacity release value from the safety technical level and the market economic level, so that the release value is more fit with the power grid operation reality, and meanwhile, the economic benefit of the power grid is effectively improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of power dispatching and power markets, in particular to a power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on a power flow entropy.
Background
The Available transmission Capability (ATC for short) of the power grid means that in the power system, the transmission power of further transactions can be assumed without the power contract of the transaction. The method is an important safety index on the technical aspect, and the safety and stability margin of system operation are visually embodied; is key market information at the market level, upon which market parties can arrange for transactions. Therefore, the reasonable distribution of the power system can effectively improve the overall efficiency and economic benefit of the power system.
At present, the prior art has the following defects in the aspects of available transmission capacity evaluation and decision making:
1. only the evaluation of a certain aspect of the available transmission capacity (such as risk evaluation, safety evaluation and the like) is involved, but a decision is made according to an evaluation result, particularly a reasonable objective decision is made instead of an empirical subjective decision, and a specific method is not provided for issuing a reasonable available transmission capacity operation value to each participant of the power grid operation;
2. the minimum value of the available transmission capacity under the 'N-1' criterion (single fault safety criterion) is used as a release value, but the occurrence probability of the situation is extremely low in the actual operation process of the power system, so that the release value of the available transmission capacity is too conservative, and the existing transmission resources cannot be fully utilized; or the economic benefit of available transmission capacity is maximized, and the basic requirement of the operation reliability of the power system is neglected; therefore, the fact that the safety is optimal or the economy is optimal is simply considered, the market operation is separated, and a technical blank exists how to comprehensively consider the system operation state and the risk benefit;
3. the influence of the practical situations in the power market environment such as the priority of power transmission service, floating quotation of power generators and the like on the evaluation and decision of available power transmission capacity is not involved.
Therefore, the available transmission capacity decision is essentially a converged technical, economic and market problem. How to comprehensively decide the safety and the economy of the power grid operation under different current system environments and different risk levels and objectively and reasonably release the operation value of the available transmission capacity becomes a research problem which needs to be urgently solved in the power dispatching and power market.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above technical problems, the present invention aims to provide a power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on a power flow entropy, which initially establishes a decision model combining a power grid power flow entropy and an available transmission capacity risk benefit model, comprehensively considers the operation state and the risk benefit of a power grid system, and makes a decision on an available transmission capacity release value from a safety technical level and a market economic level, so that the release value is more suitable for the actual operation of the power grid, and the economic benefit of the power grid is effectively improved.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the method for determining the risk benefit of the available transmission capacity of the power grid based on the power flow entropy comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring operation parameters of the power grid element as a system initial state, and constructing a node admittance matrix and a node incidence matrix; the power grid elements comprise a generator, a line, a transformer, a node and a reactive power compensation device;
s2, carrying out uncertainty sampling on the running states of a part of electric network element generators, lines and transformers, loads of all nodes and output power of the generators;
s3, respectively calculating the power flow entropy of the power grid and the available transmission capacity of the power grid according to the sampled state of the power grid system;
s4, judging whether a self-adaptive sampling termination condition is reached or not according to the power grid available power transmission capacity value, if so, executing a step S5, otherwise, executing a step S2 to a step S3;
s5, establishing a risk benefit model of the available transmission capacity of the power grid according to the available transmission capacity of the power grid;
and S6, establishing a power grid available transmission capacity decision model according to the power grid flow entropy and the power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit model, determining an optimal release value of the power grid available transmission capacity according to the model, and finishing decision making.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the invention establishes a decision model combining the power grid power flow entropy and the available transmission capacity risk benefit model, not only evaluates the safety technical level and the market economic level of the available transmission capacity, but also provides a specific method for objectively making a reasonable decision according to the evaluation result and issuing a reasonable available transmission capacity operation value; meanwhile, the available transmission capacity decision model established by the invention comprehensively considers the system operation state and risk benefit, and avoids the situation that the operation is not qualified for market operation, such as optimal safety or optimal economy, which is simply considered, so that the decision result is more fit for the actual operation of the power grid, and the economic benefit of the power grid is effectively improved.
The available power transmission capacity decision model established by the invention adopts a mode of carrying out probabilistic sampling on the system running state, fully considers the uncertain factors of the power system, and adopts a self-adaptive sampling termination condition to ensure that the model is suitable for different system environments and different risk levels; the sampling times are reduced as much as possible while the calculation accuracy is ensured, and the calculation time is shortened.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the invention can be further improved as follows:
further, the operation parameters of the grid element in step S1 include:
the method comprises the following steps of generating an economic parameter and a power output limit value of a generator, a line impedance parameter and branch data, a rated operation parameter, an impedance parameter, a transformation ratio and branch data of a transformer, load data of each node, a rated operation parameter and a compensation limit value of a reactive power supplementing device; the system initial state includes a power transmission area (node), a power reception area (node), a system reference power, and a slack node position.
Further, the specific process of step S2 is as follows:
the method comprises the following steps of performing probabilistic sampling on the running states of a generator, a line and a transformer, and performing probabilistic sampling on loads of nodes and output power of the generator, wherein the probabilistic sampling is as follows:
(1) the method comprises the following steps of performing probabilistic sampling on the operating states of a generator, a line and a transformer, setting the operating states to be operating or fault, and expressing the operating states by adopting the following formula, wherein a probability distribution function follows two-point distribution:
wherein x iskiThe operation state of the ith sample of the element k is 1, which represents that the element works normally, and 0 represents that the element is in failure; the active output power of the generator is determined to be 0 when the generator is in fault, and the circuit or the transformer is determined to be broken when the generator is in fault;
λkis the typical failure rate of component k, given by the component manufacturer or statistical data; lambda [ alpha ]kiThe actual failure rate of the ith sampling of the element k is calculated by a computer[0，1]Randomly extracting intervals; if the actual failure rate lambdakiA typical failure rate λ of less than or equal to element kkIf so, determining that the element k fails in the ith sample; if λkiGreater than λkThen, the element k is determined to be operating normally in the ith sample;
(2) the node loads and the output power of the generator fluctuate in the actual operation process of the power grid, and the probability distribution obeys standard Gaussian distribution, so the node loads and the output power of the generator are expressed by the following formulas:
Pmi＝N(μ,σ2)
wherein, PmiIs the actual load or actual output power of the node m at the ith sampling, the mean value mu of the Gaussian distribution is the static power of the node m in the initial system state, sigma2Characterizing the actual output power P of the node mmiThe degree of fluctuation of (a).
The beneficial effect of adopting the further scheme is that: the method has the advantages that the probabilistic sampling is carried out on the operation state of the power grid, the uncertain factors of the power system are fully considered, and the operation reality of the power system is met.
Further, step S3 is to calculate power flow entropy and available transmission capacity of the power grid according to the sampled power grid system state, specifically:
(1) calculating the power grid load flow entropy H in the system state after the ith samplingiThe specific process comprises the following steps:
calculating the load rate mu of each line in the power grid according to the power grid running state of the ith samplingriThe value is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,for the actual transmission power of the ith sample of line r,for the maximum transmissible power, N, of the line rlineIs a wireTotal number of roads. According to the ith sampling, the load rate mu of each lineriThe distribution situation of the grid load flow entropy H after the ith sampling is calculatediSpecifically, the following formula is adopted for expression:
the constant sequence U is taken as { U1, U2.. the., U g.. the., U11} (0, 0.2.. the., u.0 }), and l is used as the constant sequence UgiRepresents the load factor mu after the ith sampleri∈(Ug,Ug+1]C takes an empirical value ln 10;
the beneficial effect of adopting the further technical scheme is as follows: the power grid load flow entropy can well reflect the distribution condition of the line load rate, and the uniform distribution of the line load can enhance the shock resistance and disturbance resistance of the system; otherwise, the line load is distributed unevenly, and the impact and disturbance on the system are concentrated on a few lines, which causes serious consequences. Therefore, the running state of the system is represented by the power grid load flow entropy, and the problem that in the prior art, the economy is optimal and the running reality of the power grid is separated only by considering the economy is solved.
(2) Calculating the available transmission capacity ATC of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling by adopting a primary-dual interior point algorithm according to the following objective function and constraint conditions, wherein the calculated objective function and constraint conditions are as follows:
Min(-ATCi)
wherein, ATCi∈R1And the value is the power transmission capacity value available for the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling.
Wherein, f (x, ATC)i) For system flow constraints, we represent:
in the above formula, (a, b) are nodes a and b to which transmission lines are connected; pa、QaFor active and reactive power flowing into node a, QsaThe capacity of the reactive power compensation device at the node a is shown; u shapea、UbThe voltage amplitudes of the node a and the node b are obtained; thetaabIs the voltage phase angle between the node a and the node b; gab、BabAdmittance matrixes of a node a and a node b are obtained; n is a radical ofnodeThe total node number of the power grid.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for generating capacity constraints, SG、SRRepresenting an active power supply and a reactive power supply in the power grid; pGrFor the active power transmitted by the line r, GrP、
the lower limit and the upper limit of active power transmitted by the line r; qRrFor the reactive power transmitted by the line r, RrQ、the lower limit and the upper limit of the reactive power transmitted by the line r.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for voltage amplitude constraints, NlineThe total number of lines is; vrIs the voltage amplitude of the line r, rV、
the lower limit and the upper limit of the voltage amplitude of the transmission of the line r.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for the purpose of thermally stable confinement, SlineIs a region limited by thermal stability constraints; prFor the active power transmitted by the line r, rP、
the lower limit and the upper limit of the active power transmitted under the thermal stability constraint of the line r.
The beneficial effect of adopting the further technical scheme is as follows: the calculation of the available transmission capacity of the power grid is the basis of various research problems in the field, the calculated amount and the iteration times of the original-dual interior point algorithm have low sensitivity to the system dimension, the convergence is good, and the local optimal solution is not easy to occur; the available power transmission capacity is calculated by adopting the primary-dual interior point algorithm, so that the calculation speed and the calculation precision under the condition of sampling a plurality of system operation parameters for a plurality of times can be ensured.
Further, the specific process of determining whether the uncertain sample reaches the adaptive sample termination condition in step S2 in step S4 is as follows: whether the adaptive sampling termination condition is met is determined by the following formula:
wherein, ATCiThe value of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling is obtained; n is the number of completed samples; eATCThe expected value of the available transmission capacity after N times of sampling is completed; vATCThe variance of available transmission capacity after completing N times of sampling;the threshold value required to be reached in order to terminate the statistical variance of the samples.
The operation process of the self-adaptive sampling termination condition is as follows: sampling is completed each time and corresponding available transmission capacity ATC is calculatediThen, all V at this timeATCCalculating; if it is
The sampling termination condition is satisfied and the sampling is completed, otherwise, the sampling is continued and steps S2 to S3 are performed.
The beneficial effect of adopting the further scheme is that: by adopting the self-adaptive sampling termination condition instead of the determined maximum sampling times, the model can be ensured to be suitable for different system environments and different risk levels, and the precision error caused by subjectively setting the sampling times is avoided; for a power grid with small scale and simple topological structure, the model automatically selects fewer sampling times, and the calculation speed is increased; for a power grid with large scale and a complex topological structure, the sampling termination condition is met only by needing large sampling times, and the calculation precision is ensured.
Further, the specific process of establishing the risk benefit model of the available transmission capacity of the power grid according to the available transmission capacity of the power grid in step S5 is as follows:
the available transmission capacity risk benefit model needs to respectively calculate the available transmission capacity numerical value ATC of the power grid obtained by N times of samplingi∈[1,N]ATC (automatic transmission control) value as available transmission capacity release value of power gridTThe mathematical model is as follows:
Profiti＝(Benefiti+Effi-Costi)-γ(Comi+Lossi)
wherein, ProfitiA risk benefit model of available transmission capacity of the power grid is obtained; ATCiThe value of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling is obtained; ATCTIssuing a value for the available transmission capacity of the power grid; benefitiThe value ATC of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith samplingiATC (automatic transmission control) value as available transmission capacity release value of power gridTLater, the power grid sales revenue benefits; effiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the efficiency and the benefit of equipment operation are obtained; costiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the power grid purchases the electricity cost; comiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, transmitting the interrupted compensation cost; lossiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the overall loss cost increases due to the increase in transmission power.
Gamma is a risk evaluation coefficient which represents the attention degree of a decision maker to the risk; if gamma is more than or equal to 0 and less than 1, the optimism is held, and the smaller the gamma is, the more optimistic the device is; if γ is 1, it represents a neutral attitude; if gamma is greater than 1, it indicates that cautious attitudes are held, and gamma is more conservative as it is larger;
wherein, the calculation model of each variable is as follows:
a. the power grid obtains economic income according to electric quantity sales, the increase of the available transmission capacity release value enables the transmission power of the power grid to be increased, meanwhile, the transmission service priority is considered, the transmission electric quantity is divided into high-level unrevoable transmission quantity and low-level repealable transmission quantity, and therefore the benefit of the electric grid sales income can be expressed as follows:
Benefiti＝Cn*ATCFN+Cr*(ATCT-ATCFN)
wherein, CnThe price (unit: yuan/MWh) of the electricity sold for the irrevocable amount of the transmission is CrIs the price (unit: yuan/MWh) of the revocable power selling amount of the power transmission amount, and Cn>Cr；ATCFNA transmission power representing an irrevocable amount of power transmission.
b. The overall operation efficiency of the power grid can be improved by increasing the distribution value of the available transmission capacity, the utilization rate of equipment is improved, and therefore certain economic benefits are generated, and the efficiency benefits of the operation of the equipment can be expressed as follows:
Effi＝∑KEff*[ATCT-ATCi]*pi
wherein, KEffRepresents the running cost (unit is Yuan/MWh); p is a radical ofiIs ATCiThe probability of occurrence in all the solved available power transmission capacity values after N samples is expressed by the following formula:
c. the higher electricity purchasing cost can be formed by increasing the available transmission capacity release value, and the electricity generation cost function of the generator considering the economic quotation of the generator is as follows: costGt＝atP2 Gt+btPGt+ct。
Wherein, PGtRepresents the active power of the t-th engine, at、bt、ctRepresenting the economic parameters of the tth engine, the quote function of the tth generator is: cGt＝2atPGt+bt(ii) a So that electricity is generatedThe grid electricity purchase cost can be expressed as:
wherein, CGRepresenting the power purchase price (unit is Yuan/MWh) of the power grid;
d. when available transmission capacity release value ATCTMore than or equal to actual value ATC of available transmission capacity of power grid at the momentiThe transmission capability of the power grid can not meet the ATCTThe power supply service of partial users is interrupted, and contract compensation cost is generated; considering transmission service priority, irrevocable transmission amount and revocable transmission amount have different compensation prices, so the compensation cost due to transmission interruption can be expressed as:
wherein M isnMeans irrevocable outage service compensation electricity price (unit: yuan/MWh), MrRepresents a revocable transmission outage service compensation electricity price (unit: element/MWh), and Mn>Mr；ATCFNA transmission power representing an irrevocable amount of power transmission.
e. The greater transmission power results in a higher power loss, referred to as the aggregate loss cost increase, which can be expressed as:
Lossi＝∑Kl*qloss(ATCi 2-ATCT 2)*pi
wherein, KlRepresenting the loss cost coefficient (unit: Yuan/MWh), qlossRepresenting the power conversion factor.
The beneficial effect of adopting the further scheme is that: the risk and the benefit of the value of the available transmission capacity are comprehensively considered from the market economy level; the concept of priority of power transmission service is introduced, the quotation factors of the generator set are calculated, the practical situations in the power market environment such as floating quotation of a power generator and the like are considered, the authenticity of a decision result is improved, the economic value of available power transmission capacity is further mined, and the decision result is more suitable for the market environment; the psychological tendency and subjective experience of decision makers can be reflected while objective foundation is kept, so that the decision making is more scientific.
Further, step S6 is to establish a power grid available transmission capacity decision model according to the power grid power flow entropy and the power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit model, and determine an optimal distribution value of the power grid available transmission capacity according to the model, where the specific process of completing the decision is as follows:
the available transmission capacity decision model is a multi-objective optimization model and is expressed by the following formula:
Min(-αProfiti+βHi)
s.t.:α+β＝1
wherein α and β are weighting coefficients, ProfitiRisk-benefit model for available transmission capacity of power grid, HiAnd the entropy is the power flow entropy of the power grid.
Drawings
Fig. 1 schematically shows a schematic structural diagram of a power grid system of the present invention;
FIG. 2 schematically illustrates a method flow diagram of the present invention;
fig. 3 schematically shows a probability distribution of available transmission capacity in the present invention;
fig. 3-a is a probability distribution of available transmission power when the number of sampling times is 1000, fig. 3-B is a probability distribution of available transmission power when the number of sampling times is 5000, and fig. 3-C is a probability distribution of available transmission power under adaptive sampling conditions;
fig. 4 schematically illustrates a risk-benefit model of the available transmission capacity in the present invention;
fig. 4-a is a graph of a relationship between an operating efficiency gain of equipment and an available transmission capacity distribution value, fig. 4-B is a graph of a relationship between a sales profit of a power grid and an available transmission capacity distribution value, fig. 4-C is a graph of a relationship between an offset cost due to transmission interruption and an available transmission capacity distribution value, and fig. 4-D is a graph of a relationship between a comprehensive grid loss cost and an available transmission capacity distribution value.
Detailed Description
Exemplary embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It is to be understood that the embodiments shown and described in the drawings are merely exemplary and are intended to illustrate the principles and spirit of the invention, not to limit the scope of the invention.
Referring to a power grid system shown in FIG. 1, the invention provides a power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on a power flow entropy.
Referring to the method described in fig. 2, an embodiment of the invention is illustrated:
(1) acquiring operation parameters of a power grid element as a system initial state, and constructing a node admittance matrix and a node incidence matrix;
the power grid elements comprise a generator, a line, a transformer, a node and a reactive power compensation device; the power grid element operation parameters comprise generator economic parameters and output limit values, line impedance parameters and branch data, transformer rated operation parameters, impedance parameters, transformation ratio and branch data, load data of each node, and rated operation parameters and compensation limit values of the reactive power compensation device.
In the present embodiment, the initial system state selected further includes that the power transmission area is node 1 and node 2, the power reception area is node 12, node 13 and node 14, the system reference power is 100MW, and the slack node is node 1.
(2) The method comprises the following steps of performing probabilistic sampling on the running states of a generator, a line and a transformer, and performing probabilistic sampling on loads of nodes and output power of the generator, wherein the probabilistic sampling is as follows:
(21) the method comprises the following steps of performing probabilistic sampling on the operating states of a generator, a line and a transformer, setting the operating states to be operation or failure, and expressing the operating states by adopting the following formula, wherein a probability distribution function follows two-point distribution:
xkithe operation state of the ith sample of the element k is 1, which represents that the element works normally, and 0 represents that the element is in failure; the active output power of the generator is determined to be 0 when the generator is in fault, and the circuit or the transformer is determined to be broken when the generator is in fault;
wherein λ iskIs the typical failure rate of component k, generally given by the component manufacturer or statistical data; lambda [ alpha ]kiFor the actual failure rate of element k at the ith sample, the computer calculates the failure rate at [0, 1 ]]Randomly extracting intervals; if the actual failure rate lambdakiA typical failure rate λ of less than or equal to element kkThen element k is considered to be failed in the ith sample; if λkiGreater than λkThen element k is considered to be operating normally in the ith sample;
according to one embodiment of the present application, typical failure rates of all generators, transmission lines and transformers are chosen to be 0.001, 0.01 and 0.001, respectively.
(22) The node loads and the output power of the generator fluctuate in the actual operation process of the power grid, and the probability distribution obeys standard Gaussian distribution, so the node loads and the output power of the generator can be expressed as follows:
Pmi＝N(μ,σ2)
wherein, PmiThe actual load or the actual output power of the node m during the ith sampling is obtained, and the mean value mu of the Gaussian distribution is the static power of the node m in the initial system state; sigma2Characterizing the actual output power P of the node mmiThe empirical value σ is taken in this example2＝0.02。
(3) Calculating the power flow entropy and the available transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after sampling, and specifically comprising the following steps:
(31) calculating the power grid load flow entropy under the system state after sampling:
calculating the load rate mu of each line in the power grid according to the power grid running state of the ith samplingriSpecifically, the following formula is adopted for representation:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for the actual transmission power of the ith sample of line r,for the maximum transmissible power, N, of the line rlineThe total number of lines is;
according to the ith sampling, the load rate mu of each lineriThe distribution situation of the grid load flow entropy H after the ith sampling is calculatediSpecifically, the following formula is adopted for expression:
the constant sequence U is taken as { U1, U2.. the., U g.. the., U11} (0, 0.2.. the., u.0 }), and l is used as the constant sequence UgiRepresents the load factor mu after the ith sampleri∈(Ug,Ug+1]C takes an empirical value ln 10;
(32) calculating the power transmission capacity value available for the power grid in the system state after sampling, wherein the calculated objective function and constraint conditions are as follows:
Min(-ATCi)
wherein, ATCi∈R1The value is the power transmission capacity value available for the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling;
wherein, f (x, ATC)i) For system flow constraints, we represent:
in the above formula, (a, b) are nodes a and b to which transmission lines are connected; pa、QaFor flow into node aActive and reactive power, QsaThe capacity of the reactive power compensation device at the node a is shown; u shapea、UbThe voltage amplitudes of the node a and the node b are obtained; thetaabIs the voltage phase angle between the node a and the node b; gab、BabAdmittance matrixes of a node a and a node b are obtained; n is a radical ofnodeThe total node number of the power grid.
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for generating capacity constraints, SG、SRRepresenting an active power supply and a reactive power supply in the power grid; pGrFor the active power transmitted by the line r, GrP、
the lower limit and the upper limit of active power transmitted by the line r; qRrFor the reactive power transmitted by the line r, RrQ、
lower limit and upper limit of reactive power transmitted for the line r;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for voltage amplitude constraints, NlineThe total number of lines is; vrIs the voltage amplitude of the line r, rV、
lower and upper limits of the voltage amplitude of the transmission of the line r;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for the purpose of thermally stable confinement, SlineIs a region limited by thermal stability constraints; prFor the active power transmitted by the line r, rP、
as a liner lower limit and upper limit of active power transmitted under thermal stability constraint.
(4) Judging whether a self-adaptive sampling termination condition is reached according to the available power transmission capacity value of the power grid, wherein the self-adaptive sampling termination condition is as follows:
wherein, ATCiThe value of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling is obtained; n is the number of completed samples; eATCThe expected value of the available transmission capacity after N times of sampling is completed; vATCThe variance of available transmission capacity after completing N times of sampling;
a threshold value required to be reached for terminating the sample statistical variance; according to one embodiment of the invention, takeNamely, when the statistical variance of the available transmission capacity obtained by sampling calculation is less than or equal to 1%, the precision meets the requirement.
The operation process of the self-adaptive sampling termination condition is as follows: sampling is completed each time and corresponding available transmission capacity ATC is calculatediThen, all V at this timeATCCalculating; if it is
The sampling termination condition is satisfied and the sampling is completed, otherwise, the sampling is continued and steps S2 to S3 are performed.
The practical situation of the available transmission capacity probability distribution is shown in fig. 3, and the applicability of the adaptive sampling termination condition for comparative analysis is classified into the following three cases:
fig. 3-a. fixed number of samples, N1000; fig. 3-b. fixed number of samples, N5000; 3-C, adaptive sampling times, requirements
| Evaluation index | A | B | C |
| EATC/MW | 0.4226 | 0.4369 | 0.4482 |
| VATC | 0.0584 | 0.0114 | 0.0099 |
| Run time/sec | 5.2350 | 25.4550 | 29.1810 |
From the above table and fig. 3, it can be seen that as the number of samples increases, the V of the available transmission capacity increasesATCThe continuous reduction shows that the increase of the sampling times leads the operation result to tend to be stable, the probability distribution tends to be smooth, and the calculation and the analysis of the available transmission capacity are more facilitated; however, the increase of the sampling times can also greatly improve the running time, and the adoption of the self-adaptive sampling termination condition can reduce the sampling times as far as possible while ensuring the calculation accuracy, thereby ensuring that the model is suitable for different system environments and different risk levels.
(5) Establishing a risk benefit (net income) model of the available transmission capacity of the power grid, wherein the risk benefit (net income) model is obtained by respectively calculating the available transmission capacity value ATC of the power grid obtained by N times of samplingi∈[1,N]ATC (automatic transmission control) value as available transmission capacity release value of power gridTRevenue profit, Benefit, sale from the gridiEfficiency of operation Eff of the plantiAnd the power grid electricity purchasing CostiCompensation cost Com due to transmission interruptioniLoss incremental Loss of integrated network due to increased transmission poweriThe method comprises five parts, and the specific calculation model is as follows:
Profiti＝(Benefiti+Effi-Costi)-γ(Comi+Lossi)
wherein, ProfitiA risk benefit model of available transmission capacity of the power grid is obtained; ATCiThe value of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling is obtained; ATCTIssuing a value for the available transmission capacity of the power grid; benefitiThe value ATC of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith samplingiATC (automatic transmission control) value as available transmission capacity release value of power gridTLater, the power grid sales revenue benefits; effiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the efficiency and the benefit of equipment operation are obtained; costiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the power grid purchases the electricity cost; comiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, transmitting the interrupted compensation cost; lossiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the overall loss cost increases due to the increase in transmission power.
Gamma is a risk evaluation coefficient which represents the attention degree of a decision maker to the risk; if gamma is more than or equal to 0 and less than 1, the optimism is held, and the smaller the gamma is, the more optimistic the device is; if γ is 1, it represents a neutral attitude; if gamma is greater than 1, it indicates that cautious attitudes are held, and gamma is more conservative as it is larger;
wherein, the calculation model of each variable is as follows:
a. the power grid obtains economic income according to electric quantity sales, the increase of the available transmission capacity release value enables the transmission power of the power grid to be increased, meanwhile, the transmission service priority is considered, the transmission electric quantity is divided into high-level unrevoable transmission quantity and low-level repealable transmission quantity, and therefore the benefit of the electric grid sales income can be expressed as follows:
Benefiti＝Cn*ATCFN+Cr*(ATCT-ATCFN)
wherein, CnThe price (unit: yuan/MWh) of the electricity sold for the irrevocable amount of the transmission is CrIs the price (unit: yuan/MWh) of the revocable power selling amount of the power transmission amount, and Cn>Cr；ATCFNA transmission power representing an irrevocable amount of power transmission.
b. The overall operation efficiency of the power grid can be improved by increasing the distribution value of the available transmission capacity, the utilization rate of equipment is improved, and therefore certain economic benefits are generated, and the efficiency benefits of the operation of the equipment can be expressed as follows:
Effi＝∑KEff*[ATCT-ATCi]*pi
wherein, KEffRepresents the running cost (unit is Yuan/MWh); according to the research results of the prior art, K is generally taken in the embodiment Eff50 yuan/MWh; p is a radical ofiIs ATCiThe probability of occurrence in all the solved available power transmission capacity values after N samples is expressed by the following formula:
as shown in fig. 4-a, the relationship between the available transmission capacity distribution value and the efficiency benefit of the equipment operation is shown.
c. The higher electricity purchasing cost can be formed by increasing the available transmission capacity release value, and the electricity generation cost function of the generator considering the economic quotation of the generator is as follows: costGt＝atP2 Gt+btPGt+ct。
Wherein, PGtRepresents the active power of the t-th engine, at、bt、ctRepresenting the economic parameters of the tth engine, the quote function of the tth generator is: cGt＝2atPGt+bt(ii) a Therefore, the electricity purchasing cost of the power grid can be expressed as:
wherein, CGRepresenting the power purchase price (unit is Yuan/MWh) of the power grid;
in this example, for the convenience of analysis, the difference between the revenue Benefit of power grid sales and the power grid purchase cost is defined as the profit of power grid sales, i.e., Benefiti-Costi(ii) a As shown in fig. 4-B, the relationship between the available transmission capacity distribution value and the sales profit of the power grid is embodied.
d. When available transmission capacity release value ATCTMore than or equal to actual value ATC of available transmission capacity of power grid at the momentiThe transmission capability of the power grid can not meet the ATCTThe power supply service of partial users is interrupted, and contract compensation cost is generated; considering transmission service priority, irrevocable transmission amount and revocable transmission amount have different compensation prices, so the compensation cost due to transmission interruption can be expressed as:
wherein M isnMeans irrevocable outage service compensation electricity price (unit: yuan/MWh), MrRepresents a revocable transmission outage service compensation electricity price (unit: element/MWh), and Mn>Mr；ATCFNA transmission power representing an irrevocable amount of power transmission; as shown in fig. 4-C, the relationship between the available transmission capacity issuance value and the transmission outage compensation cost is embodied.
e. The greater transmission power results in a higher power loss, referred to as the aggregate loss cost increase, which can be expressed as:
Lossi＝∑Kl*qloss(ATCi 2-ATCT 2)*pi
wherein, KlRepresenting the loss cost coefficient (unit: Yuan/MWh), qlossTo representCoefficient of power conversion, in this case generally Kl600 yuan/MWh, qloss0.01; as shown in fig. 4-D, the relationship between the available transmission capacity distribution value and the integrated grid loss cost increment is shown.
As can be seen from fig. 4, as the distribution value of the available transmission capacity increases, the profit of the electricity selling and purchasing difference value, the efficiency benefit of the equipment operation, the compensation cost and the increment of the comprehensive network loss cost increase all increase, and when the distribution value is smaller than the optimal distribution value, the economic benefit growth rate is greater than the economic risk growth rate; when the release value is greater than the optimal release value, the economic risk growth rate, especially the growth rate of the reimbursement cost, is greatly increased, resulting in a sharp decrease in the economic net gain.
(6) And establishing a power grid available transmission capacity decision model by combining the power grid flow entropy and the power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit model, wherein the decision model is represented by the following formula:
Min(-αProfiti+βHi)
s.t.:α+β＝1
wherein α and β are weighting coefficients, ProfitiRisk-benefit model for available transmission capacity of power grid, HiAnd the entropy is the power flow entropy of the power grid.
And according to the decision model, seeking the optimal condition of the decision model under different available transmission capacity release values, determining the optimal release value and finishing the decision process.
For comparative analysis of the applicability of the available transmission capacity decision model provided by the invention, the following three situations are adopted: A. calculating an available transmission capacity release value according to the available transmission capacity decision model provided by the invention; B. making an available transmission capacity decision purely aiming at maximizing economic benefits; C. and (3) purely making a decision on available transmission capacity based on a static stability constraint 'N-1' criterion with optimal safety.
As can be seen from the table above, the scheme B can enable the power grid to obtain the highest economic benefit, but the power grid operation reliability at this time is low; the scheme C can ensure the reliability of power grid transmission, but the release value is too conservative, and the existing power transmission resources cannot be fully utilized; the risk benefit decision model of the available transmission capacity of the power grid based on the tidal current entropy comprehensively considers the system operation state and the risk benefit, considers the power grid operation reality and the power grid economic benefit, ensures that the power grid has higher reliability, and obviously improves the economic benefit of the available transmission capacity while fitting the power grid operation reality.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.
Claims (7)
1. A power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on a power flow entropy is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, acquiring operation parameters of the power grid element as a system initial state, and constructing a node admittance matrix and a node incidence matrix; the power grid elements comprise a generator, a line, a transformer, a node and a reactive power compensation device;
s2, carrying out uncertainty sampling on the running states of a part of electric network element generators, lines and transformers, loads of all nodes and output power of the generators;
s3, respectively calculating the power flow entropy of the power grid and the available transmission capacity of the power grid according to the sampled state of the power grid system;
s4, judging whether a self-adaptive sampling termination condition is reached or not according to the power grid available power transmission capacity value, if so, executing a step S5, otherwise, executing a step S2 to a step S3;
s5, establishing a risk benefit model of the available transmission capacity of the power grid according to the available transmission capacity of the power grid;
and S6, establishing a power grid available transmission capacity decision model according to the power grid flow entropy and the power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit model, determining an optimal release value of the power grid available transmission capacity according to the model, and finishing decision making.
2. The power flow entropy-based grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method according to claim 1, wherein the operation parameters in the step S1 include:
the system comprises a generator economic parameter and output limit value, a line impedance parameter and branch data, a transformer rated operation parameter, an impedance parameter, a transformation ratio and branch data, each node load data, a reactive power compensation device rated operation parameter and a compensation limit value.
3. The power flow entropy-based risk benefit decision method for available transmission capacity of power grid according to claim 1, wherein the step S2 specifically includes:
the method comprises the following steps of performing probabilistic sampling on the running states of a generator, a line and a transformer, and performing probabilistic sampling on loads of nodes and output power of the generator, and specifically comprises the following steps:
s21, carrying out probabilistic sampling on the operation states of the generator, the line and the transformer, wherein the operation states are set as operation or failure, the probability distribution function follows two-point distribution, and the operation states are expressed by the following formula:
xkithe operation state of the ith sample of the element k is 1, which represents that the element works normally, and 0 represents that the element is in failure; the active output power of the generator is determined to be 0 when the generator is in fault, and the circuit or the transformer is determined to be broken when the generator is in fault;
λkis the typical failure rate of component k, given by the component manufacturer or statistical data; lambda [ alpha ]kiFor the actual failure rate of element k at the ith sample, the computer calculates the failure rate at [0, 1 ]]Randomly extracting intervals; if the actual failure rate lambdakiA typical failure rate λ of less than or equal to element kkIf so, determining that the element k fails in the ith sample; if λkiGreater than λkThen, the element k is determined to be operating normally in the ith sample;
s22, carrying out probabilistic sampling on the node loads and the generator output power, wherein the probability distribution obeys standard Gaussian distribution, and the node loads and the generator output power are expressed by the following formulas:
Pmi＝N(μ,σ2)
wherein, PmiIs the actual load or actual output power of the node m at the ith sampling, the mean value mu of the Gaussian distribution is the static power of the node m in the initial system state, sigma2Characterizing the actual output power P of the node mmiThe degree of fluctuation of (a).
4. The power flow entropy-based risk benefit decision method for available transmission capacity of power grid according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 specifically includes:
s31, calculating power grid load flow entropy Hi: the specific process is as follows:
firstly, calculating the load rate mu of each line in the power grid according to the power grid operation state sampled at the ith timeriSpecifically, the following formula is adopted for representation:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for the actual transmission power of the ith sample of line r,
for the maximum transmissible power, N, of the line rlineThe total number of lines is;
then, each line load rate mu is sampled according to the ith timeriThe distribution situation of the grid load flow entropy H after the ith sampling is calculatediSpecifically, the following formula is adopted for expression:
the constant sequence U is taken as { U1, U2.. the., Ug.. the., U11}, which is {0, 0.2.. the.2.0}, using lgiRepresents the load factor mu after the ith sampleri∈(Ug,Ug+1]C takes an empirical value ln 10;
s32, calculating the available transmission capacity of the power grid:
according to a target function and a constraint condition calculated by the available transmission capacity of the power grid, calculating the available transmission capacity ATC of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling by adopting a primary-dual interior point algorithm, wherein the calculated target function and the constraint condition are as follows:
Min(-ATCi)
wherein, ATCi∈R1The value is the power transmission capacity value available for the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling;
wherein, f (x, ATC)i) For system flow constraints, we represent:
in the above formula, (a, b) are nodes a and b to which transmission lines are connected; pa、QaFor active and reactive power flowing into node a, QsaThe capacity of the reactive power compensation device at the node a is shown; u shapea、UbThe voltage amplitudes of the node a and the node b are obtained; thetaabIs the voltage phase angle between the node a and the node b; gab、BabAdmittance matrixes of a node a and a node b are obtained; n is a radical ofnodeCounting the total nodes of the power grid;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for generating capacity constraints, SG、SRRepresenting an active power supply and a reactive power supply in the power grid; pGrFor the active power transmitted by the line r, GrP、
the lower limit and the upper limit of active power transmitted by the line r; qRrFor the reactive power transmitted by the line r, RrQ、
lower limit and upper limit of reactive power transmitted for the line r;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,for voltage amplitude constraints, NlineThe total number of lines is; vrIs the voltage amplitude of the line r, rV、
lower and upper limits of the voltage amplitude of the transmission of the line r;
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
for the purpose of thermally stable confinement, SlineIs a region limited by thermal stability constraints; prFor the active power transmitted by the line r, rP、the lower limit and the upper limit of the active power transmitted under the thermal stability constraint of the line r.
5. The method for determining the risk benefit of the available transmission capacity of the power grid based on the power flow entropy as claimed in claim 1, wherein the specific process of determining whether the uncertain sampling in the step S2 reaches the adaptive sampling termination condition in the step S4 is as follows:
after each sampling is finished, calculating the available transmission capacity of the corresponding power grid, and calculating the variance of the available transmission capacity of the power grid at the moment;
if the variance of the available transmission capacity of the power grid is smaller than or equal to a threshold value required to be reached by the statistic variance of the termination sampling, the termination sampling condition is met, the sampling is completed, and otherwise, the sampling is continued; specifically, the following formula is adopted to determine whether the adaptive sampling termination condition is met:
wherein, ATCiThe value of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling is obtained; n is the number of completed sampling times; eATCThe expected value of the available transmission capacity after N times of sampling is completed; vATCThe variance of available transmission capacity after completing N times of sampling;
the threshold value required to be reached in order to terminate the statistical variance of the samples.
6. The power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on the power flow entropy as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S5 is to establish a power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit model according to the power grid available transmission capacity by the specific process of:
separately transmitting ATCi∈[1,N]ATC (automatic transmission control) value as available transmission capacity release value of power gridTAnd then, calculating a risk benefit model of the available transmission capacity of the power grid by adopting the following formula:
Profiti＝(Benefiti+Effi-Costi)-γ(Comi+Lossi)
wherein, ProfitiA risk benefit model of available transmission capacity of the power grid is obtained; ATCiThe value of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith sampling is obtained; ATCTIssuing a value for the available transmission capacity of the power grid; benefitiThe value ATC of the available power transmission capacity of the power grid in the system state after the ith samplingiATC (automatic transmission control) value as available transmission capacity release value of power gridTLater, the power grid sales revenue benefits; effiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the efficiency and the benefit of equipment operation are obtained; costiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTLater, the electric network purchases electricityCost; comiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, transmitting the interrupted compensation cost; lossiIs ATCiAs the issued value ATCTThen, the increase of the comprehensive network loss cost due to the increase of the transmission power;
gamma is a risk evaluation coefficient which represents the attention degree of a decision maker to the risk; if gamma is more than or equal to 0 and less than 1, the optimism is held, and the smaller the gamma is, the more optimistic the device is; if γ is 1, it represents a neutral attitude; if gamma is greater than 1, it indicates that cautious attitudes are held, and gamma is more conservative as it is larger;
the power grid sales revenue benefit is expressed by the following formula:
Benefiti＝Cn*ATCFN+Cr*(ATCT-ATCFN)
wherein, CnThe unit of the price of the electricity sold for the irrevocable amount of the electric power is as follows: Meta/MWh, CrThe unit of the price of the power sold for the revocable transmission quantity is as follows: meta/MWh, and Cn>Cr；ATCFNA transmission power representing an irrevocable amount of power transmission;
the efficiency and the benefit of the equipment operation are expressed by the following formula:
Effi＝∑KEff*[ATCT-ATCi]*pi
wherein, KEffRepresents the operating cost in units of: Yuan/MWh; p is a radical ofiIs ATCiThe probability of occurrence in all the solved available power transmission capacity values after N samples is expressed by the following formula:
the power grid electricity purchasing cost is expressed by the following formula:
wherein, CGThe unit of the power purchase price of the power grid is as follows: Meta/MWh, PGtRepresents the active power of the t-th engine, at、bt、ctRepresenting an economic parameter of the t engine;
the compensation cost of the transmission interruption is expressed by the following formula:
wherein M isnAnd the unit of the compensation price of the irrevocable transmission capacity interruption service is as follows: m is Yuan/MWhrAnd the unit of the compensation electricity price of the revocable transmission capacity interruption service is as follows: m is meta/MWh, andn>Mr；ATCFNa transmission power representing an irrevocable amount of power transmission;
the comprehensive network loss cost increment is expressed by the following formula:
Lossi＝∑Kl*qloss(ATCi 2-ATCT 2)*pi
wherein, KlRepresents the loss cost factor, in units: m. Yuan/MWh, qlossRepresenting the power conversion factor.
7. The power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit decision method based on the power flow entropy as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S6 is to establish a power grid available transmission capacity decision model according to the power flow entropy of the power grid and the power grid available transmission capacity risk benefit model, specifically:
Min(-αProfiti+βHi)
α+β＝1
wherein α and β are weighting coefficients, ProfitiRisk-benefit model for available transmission capacity of power grid, HiAnd the entropy is the power flow entropy of the power grid.
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