CN109636113A - Power grid risk analysis method based on deploying node - Google Patents
Power grid risk analysis method based on deploying node Download PDFInfo
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- CN109636113A CN109636113A CN201811340462.2A CN201811340462A CN109636113A CN 109636113 A CN109636113 A CN 109636113A CN 201811340462 A CN201811340462 A CN 201811340462A CN 109636113 A CN109636113 A CN 109636113A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E40/00—Technologies for an efficient electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y02E40/70—Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Abstract
The power grid risk analysis method based on deploying node that the present invention relates to a kind of, belongs to electric power network field.This method is based on prim al- dual interior point m ethod optimal load flow model calculate node Marginal Pricing and generating set is contributed, the single Risk Evaluation Factors under high risk N-3 failure operation state are solved by nonlinear programming approach, further calculate the integrated risk assessment for obtaining the completion of combination entropy index to power grid.This method uses the one month Power system load data in certain city, is scanned to high risk N-3 line fault scene, enables risk assessment to consider the case where being largely likely to occur, as a result closer to reality；The integrated risk index of solution includes Two indices joint weighted entropy, this index compensates for the deficiency of independent index analysis in view of trend distribution, mistake load and the obstruction severity of power grid are horizontal to power grid risk and the combined influence of self-organized criticality.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to electric power network field, it is related to the power grid risk analysis method based on deploying node.
Background technique
Under the Power Market opened gradually, the uncertain factor for influencing Electric Power Network Planning and scheduling is more prominent: electricity
Randomness, the fluctuation of load and electricity price, the failure of grid equipment, the variation of cost etc. of source power output.These uncertain factors are not
The randomness of the market promotion and coming and go for grid operation mode are only caused, so that dispatcher is difficult to accurate quantification system
Real risk, increase pressure to its correct operation, and system function caused by system element failure lacks, and seriously affects
The power supply reliability of electric system, to society brings huge loss.Under Power Market, electric system is carried out static
Safety analysis chooses high risk fault scenes as forecast failure collection, assesses dispatching of power netwoks operation risk, find system
Weak link, can failure occur before formulate Control Measure, this be carry out system operation risk evade have efficacious prescriptions
Formula.
The basic step of dispatching of power netwoks operation risk assessment specifically includes that system state selection, system mode analysis, system
Risk indicator calculates and dispatching running way selection.The selection of system mode is generally by parsing enumerative technique or Monte Carlo
Simulation determines the operating status of the elements such as generating set, transformer, route, to be made of the operating status of element whole
The operating status of a complication system；System mode analysis mainly in the state of selected, carries out trend meter to electric system
It calculates；The calculating of system risk index refers to by repeatedly simulating or the accumulation of enumeration state, updates reliability index, and to the end
The process of index value.The selection of each system mode will all change the reliability index of system.The selection of dispatching running way is
Risk assessment is carried out to multiple grid operation modes using methods of risk assessment, and selects the method for operation of priming the pump.
The existing Contingency screening carried out for system operation risk assessment only considers substance failure mostly, and serious event occurs
The method that urgent corrective action when barrier --- load is cut down is mostly averagely to cut down in domain or cut down by significance level；Existing skill
Risk assessment of the art for system operation mode lays particular emphasis on adequacy evaluation, i.e. static reliability assessment aspect mostly.
According to N-1 criterion, the generation of substance failure will not destroy the safe operation of power grid, only consider substance failure not
It can reflect electric power netting safe running level, therefore, screen the higher failure of failure severity carrying out static security analysis to power grid
When, the analysis to multiple failure be it is very necessary, need to consider N-k (k >=2) failure to the shadow of system safety operation state
It rings.
Current trend corrective action is all to carry out load reduction from the angle of logical reach, optimization, ratio, and do not consider
Generator is to burden apportionment relationship before failure, less rationally.
The prior art does not carry out safety evaluation to system risk mostly.Adequacy evaluation, i.e. static reliability are assessed only
Reflect research the period in composite power systems power system capacity meets load electric power and total electrical energy demands in a static condition
Degree, relate only to the stability of system, it is unknowable for the responding ability of dynamic and transient disturbance, and power grid is not transported
Capable degree of risk (safe coefficient) quantization.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of power grid risk analysis method based on deploying node.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
Power grid risk analysis method based on deploying node, method includes the following steps:
S1: the calculating of the deploying node based on AC power flow；
S2: the single index analysis of power grid risk assessment；
S3: the power grid risk comprehensive assessment based on joint weighted entropy；
S4: to the net assessment of network system operation risk.
Further, the step S1 specifically:
Using the minimum optimization aim as system of the sum of coal consumption expense, pollution processing cost and mistake load compensation expense cost
Function, consider following constraint: active power and reactive power equilibrium, unit climbing, cut load or more at unit output bound
Limit, node voltage bound and the Line Flow constraint based on AC power flow, establish the dynamic optimal of power grid economic load dispatching a few days ago
Model:
In model, number of segment when T is total；M is interstitial content；ai、biAnd ciIt is for the coal consumption cost function of generating set
Number；kiFor the coefficient for polluting processing cost function；riFor the coefficient for losing load compensation expense linear function；Pgi、QgiIndicate power generation
The active and reactive power output of unit i；Pdi、QdiIndicate the active and reactive load in node i；Pij、QijIndicate route lijUpper circulation
Active and reactive power；Pci、QciIt indicates active and reactive to cut load in node i；PgimaxAnd PgiminIndicate that generator has
The upper and lower limit of function power output；QgimaxAnd QgiminIndicate the upper and lower limit of the idle power output of generator i；riFor the creep speed of unit i；
VimaxAnd ViminIndicate the voltage magnitude upper and lower limit of node i；SlimaxAnd SliminThe trend apparent energy of route l-i is flowed through in expression
Upper and lower limit；Load is cut to be cut down according to the principle of constant power factor；
For the demand for meeting calculating and the scheduling of Spot Price under Power Market, using prim al- dual interior point m ethod to formula
(1) it is solved, realizes what the calculating of LMP Link Manager Protocol (Link Manager Protocol, LMP) and optimal load flow calculated
Linkage；
The essence of interior point method is the combination of Lagrangian, logarithmic barrier function and Newton method three, and thinking is: full
Sufficient slack variable and Lagrange multiplier are greater than in zero or minus situation, and along feasible direction, iteration, which is found out, makes target letter
The interior point that number reduces repeats this process until obtaining optimal value；The deploying node calculation formula at certain moment is as follows:
Li=λ-∑ Aim×Pim+λ(Fi-1) (2)
In formula, LiIndicate the Marginal Pricing of node i；λ is the reference electricity price of balance nodes；AimIt is node i for route m's
Transfer factor；PlmFor the shadow price of route m；FiIt is node i for the loss penalty factor of balance nodes.
Further, the step S2 specifically:
(1) interruptible load cost of compensation
The interruptible load cost of compensation of different stage has difference, uses r in formula (3)jTo indicate；The decision of dispatcher
According to the product of making up price and outage capacity, formulated with the least principle of total cost；Certain period interruptible load compensation at
This is calculated with following formula:
In formula, DcThe cost of compensation of interruptible load is cut off for the period；NcFor the number of users for participating in interruptible load；
rjAnd PcjRespectively cut off the load and its unit price of user j；
(2) power grid short-term operation cost
In the case where network congestion, economize on electricity electricity price can completely embody network constraint to the shadow of node marginal cost
It rings, the power grid short-term operation costing formula based on node electricity price method is as follows, under Pool mode:
In formula, NloadFor load number；NgenFor generating set number；qvAnd PvThe respectively electricity price and function of load bus v
Rate；qwAnd PwThe respectively electricity price and power of power generation node w.
Further, the step S3 specifically:
(1) single index weighted entropy
For the interruptible load cost of compensation under M N-3 failure operation mode of power grid, give constant sequence U=[U1,
U2 ..., Un], use lkIndicate interruptible load cost of compensation wi∈(Uk,Uk+1] number, then cost belongs to section (Uk,Uk+1]
Probability P (k) are as follows:
The power grid interruptible load cost of compensation entropy under the M kind method of operation is obtained according to Shannon's theorems and formula (5) are as follows:
Known by formula (3), when the order of in probability vector P=(P1, P2 ..., Pn-1) component arbitrarily converts, entropy function
Value it is constant；Entropy function (6) is weighted with the power grid in each section interruptible load cost of compensation that is averaged, obtains weighted compensation
Cost entropy are as follows:
In formula, W (k) is interruptible load cost of compensation wi∈(Uk, Uk+1] all operating conditions mean compensation algorithm cost,
If (Uk,Uk+1] there is t value at cost in section, then
(2) Two indices combine weighted entropy
The calculating of the cost entropy of same steps is carried out to power grid short-term operation cost with the method for a section；To comprehensively consider
Influence of the load compensation cost to power grid risk is lost caused by short-term operation cost caused by Network congestion and generation deficiency, is introduced
This index of joint weighted entropy；
In information theory, combined signal source is made of two information sources X, Y, and probability distribution is mathematically represented as:
A combined signal source, joint probability space are formed with the two information sources are as follows:
The combination entropy of two-dimensional random variable is defined as the mathematic expectaion of joint self-information, it is being averaged for two-dimensional random variable
Probabilistic measurement, the calculation formula of combination entropy are as follows:
If using interruptible load cost of compensation and short-term operation cost as this two-dimensional random variable, and with each section
Average unit cost wiAnd viAs weight, then the joint weighted entropy of operation of power networks are as follows:
Two indices joint weighted entropy comprehensively considers the trend distribution of power grid, loses load and obstruction severity to power grid wind
The influence of danger level and self-organized criticality, makes up the deficiency of single index analysis.
Further, the step S4 specifically:
Step 1: reading system primitive network parameter, the essential information and system N-3 failure operation mode collection of each Power Generation,
Dynamic economic dispatch model is solved using prim al- dual interior point m ethod, obtain LMP and loses load；When trend is not restrained according to excitation
Compatible management mode determines optimal cutting load amount；
Step 2: the power grid calculated under various failure operation modes loses load cost and one risk of short-term operation cost sheet
Evaluation index；
Step 3: introducing the concept of weighted entropy, single finger is carried out respectively to the mistake load cost and short-term operation cost of power grid
The calculating of weighted entropy is marked, generation deficiency is horizontal and clogged conditions are respectively to the influence of power grid risk to describe；
Step 4: calculating joint weighted entropy index, comprehensively consider short-term operation cost and generation deficiency caused by Network congestion
The caused influence for losing load compensation cost to power grid risk, thus the net assessment of complete paired systems operation risk.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
(1) deploying node is introduced as complementary analysis tool, has been given full play to it in electricity transaction and has been handled defeated
The important function having in resistance plug.
(2) this technology is scanned high risk N-3 line fault scene, is carried out using the one month load data in certain city
It calculates, enables risk assessment to consider the case where being largely likely to occur, assessment result is closer to reality.
(3) when generation catastrophe failure needs cutting load, using the Interruptable-Load Management mode of compatible incentives, Neng Goujian
The interests for caring for Utilities Electric Co. and user are applicable to the Different Optimization target of load rejection distribution.
(4) the single risk indicator solved includes representing the mistake load cost of user's power loss risk and representing network risks
Short-term operation cost has comprehensively considered power grid and two different interests main bodys of load, and risk assessment is more comprehensively.
(5) concept for introducing entropy index, integrates assessment system risk for both generation deficiency and backlog.And
Not only the level of two kinds of costs had been considered, but also has reflected the dispersion degree of cost distribution, has realized multi-angle risk assessment.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to keep the purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and beneficial effects clearer, the present invention provides following attached drawing and carries out
Illustrate:
Fig. 1 is implementation process of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with attached drawing, a preferred embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail.
The calculating of 1 deploying node based on AC power flow
Using the minimum optimization mesh as system of the sum of the costs such as coal consumption expense, pollution processing cost and mistake load compensation expense
Scalar functions, it is contemplated that following constraint: active power and reactive power equilibrium, unit climbing, are cut on load at unit output bound
Lower limit, node voltage bound and Line Flow constraint based on AC power flow etc. establish the dynamic of power grid economic load dispatching a few days ago
State optimal models:
In the model, number of segment when T is total；M is interstitial content；ai、biAnd ciIt is for the coal consumption cost function of generating set
Number；kiFor the coefficient for polluting processing cost function；riFor the coefficient for losing load compensation expense linear function.Pgi、QgiIndicate power generation
The active and reactive power output of unit i；Pdi、QdiIndicate the active and reactive load in node i；Pij、QijIndicate route lijUpper circulation
Active and reactive power；Pci、QciIt indicates active and reactive to cut load in node i；PgimaxAnd PgiminIndicate that generator has
The upper and lower limit of function power output；QgimaxAnd QgiminIndicate the upper and lower limit of the idle power output of generator i；riFor the creep speed of unit i；
VimaxAnd ViminIndicate the voltage magnitude upper and lower limit of node i；SlimaxAnd SliminThe trend apparent energy of route l-i is flowed through in expression
Upper and lower limit.Load is cut to be cut down according to the principle of constant power factor.
The meaning of deploying node refers to that electric system is when increasing the load of unit MW on this node with most economical
Method dispatches electric power come cost of electricity-generating needed for meeting the workload demand.Under the settlement mode of node electricity price, electricity power enterprise and
It is struck a bargain respectively with the LMP of respectively place node load side.The costs such as Congestion Relief Cost and via net loss are also converted in LMP,
Therefore differentiation is presented in LMP.
For the demand for meeting calculating and the scheduling of Spot Price under Power Market, the present invention uses prim al- dual interior point m ethod
Formula (1) is solved, realizes the linkage that the calculating of LMP and optimal load flow calculate.The essence of interior point method be Lagrangian,
The combination of logarithmic barrier function and Newton method three, basic ideas are: meeting slack variable and Lagrange multiplier is greater than
Zero or minus situation under, along feasible direction, iteration find out make objective function reduce interior point, repeat this process until
Obtain optimal value.The method does not require initial point in feasible zone, and has the number of iterations few, and quickly, robustness is good for convergence
The advantages of, therefore can be used for the solution of large-scale nonlinear constrained minimization problem.It is active corresponding with reactive balance equation in formula (1)
Lagrange multiplier and active and reactive real time node electricity price have identical economic significance, claimed in economy and finance
For " shadow price ".It contains the information abundant such as cost of electricity-generating, backlog and via net loss of system, therefore real-time
Advantage is had more than other algorithms in the decomposition of electricity price.The deploying node calculation formula at certain moment is as follows:
Li=λ-∑ Aim×Pim+λ(Fi-1) (2)
In the formula, LiIndicate the Marginal Pricing of node i；λ is the reference electricity price of balance nodes；AimIt is node i for route m
Transfer factor；PlmFor the shadow price of route m；FiIt is node i for the loss penalty factor of balance nodes.
The single index analysis of 2 power grid risk assessments
(1) interruptible load cost of compensation
Important component of the interruptible load as ancillary service is participated in by way of signing a contract with user
In spinning reserve capacity market.When the spinning reserve deficiency of Generation Side, it can cut off and sign interrupting in contract in advance
Load, spinning reserve needed for reducing Generation Side are contributed, and are improved system abundant intensity, are increased participation of the user in electricity market
Degree.
In the case where interruptible load participates in spare capacity market, interruptible load cost of compensation and load it is important
Degree is related, i.e. the interruptible load cost of compensation of different stage has difference, uses r in formula (3)jTo indicate.Dispatcher's
Decision can be formulated with the least principle of total cost according to the product of making up price and outage capacity.The interruption of certain period is negative
Lotus cost of compensation is calculated with following formula.
In the formula, DcThe cost of compensation of interruptible load is cut off for the period；NcFor the number of users for participating in interruptible load
Amount；rjAnd PcjRespectively cut off the load and its unit price of user j.
(2) power grid short-term operation cost
The limited transmission capacity of power transmission network and transmission loss are two most basic features of power transmission network.It is open from
Generally to follow following three principles by under the Power Market that competes, carrying out dispatch: low quotation unit is preferentially grid-connected
The net value maximization of society and transmission system safe and reliable operation are realized in power generation.Based on above three principle, power grid is carrying out electricity
Power should be guiding with profit maximization when trading, and allow the unit of low quotation multiple electric as far as possible and the high unit offered is allowed to send out less even
It does not generate electricity.The route in system near certain low quotation units has been inevitably resulted in this way assumes responsibility for heavier load,
Obstruction is just produced when it is more than the capacity of route.Dispatcher should adjust power output plan, cut-out load or disconnected at this time
Overload route is opened to guarantee system safe and stable operation, and thus the incrementss of caused cost of electricity-generating are the short-term fortune of power grid
Row cost.
In the case where network congestion, economize on electricity electricity price can completely embody network constraint to the shadow of node marginal cost
It rings, the power grid short-term operation costing formula based on node electricity price method is following (by taking Pool mode as an example).
In the formula, NloadFor load number；NgenFor generating set number；qvAnd PvRespectively the electricity price of load bus v and
Power；qwAnd PwThe respectively electricity price and power of power generation node w.
The 3 power grid risk comprehensive assessments based on joint weighted entropy
(1) single index weighted entropy
When analyzing Power System Reliability, the reliability index of use can be divided into following two categories: certainty refers to
Mark and probability index.Certainty index refer to certain process or certain event frequency of occurrence or horizontal related extreme value, do not wrap
Include the information of whole process.And probability index then refers to the index for containing whole process and capable of reflecting this process characteristic.
Therefore, both reliability indexs are comprehensively considered herein, and the mistake load cost and short-term operation cost to power grid N-3 operation are most
Big minimum value and entropy index carry out statistics calculating, and analyze with this reliability water under high risk method of operation of power grid N-3
It is flat.
Entropy theory is proposed first by roentgen Clausius, originally serves as molecular motion in research physics
The index of confusion degree rule formed the regular scientific theory to develop for studying order phenomenon in nature later,
It is widely used among the uncertainty of discrete system and the description of order degree.Entropy class index in Power System Analysis is big
Comentropy is mostly used, that is, is used to judge a kind of probability description of system status discreteness, when system is in unique states,
System order degree highest, system entropy are minimum；When system is in various states and each state probability of occurrence is equal, system order
Degree is minimum, and system entropy is maximum.For complication system sensu lato for one, entropy index can reflect to a certain extent
The probability and self-organizing critical state of power grid cascading failure.Present invention introduces lose load cost and add combining for short-term operation cost
Weigh entropy, the topological structure of concentrated expression power grid, the severity for losing load and obstruction are horizontal to electric network reliability and from group
Knit the influence of criticality.
For the interruptible load cost of compensation under M N-3 failure operation mode of power grid, give constant sequence U=[U1,
U2 ..., Un], use lkIndicate interruptible load cost of compensation wi∈(Uk,Uk+1] number, then cost belongs to section (Uk,Uk+1]
Probability P (k) are as follows:
The power grid interruptible load cost of compensation entropy under the M kind method of operation is obtained according to Shannon's theorems and formula (5) are as follows:
By formula (3) it is found that when the order of in probability vector P=(P1, P2 ..., Pn-1) component arbitrarily converts, entropy letter
Several values is constant.Therefore the entropy that (6) formula defines only considered the cost probability distribution in each section, ignores each section itself and belongs to
The difference of property, the i.e. different fact of value at cost.Which results in cost of compensation to focus primarily upon high numerical intervals and low numerical value
The compensation entropy of period, the two are the same, that is to say, that from the point of view of system reliability angle, power grid risk representated by the two
Probability that is horizontal and entering self-organizing critical state be it is equal, this is obviously runed counter to the fact.
As an improvement, the present invention adds entropy function (6) with the power grid in each section interruptible load cost of compensation that is averaged
Power, obtains weighted compensation cost entropy are as follows:
In formula, W (k) is interruptible load cost of compensation wi∈(Uk, Uk+1] all operating conditions mean compensation algorithm cost,
If (Uk,Uk+1] there is t value at cost in section, then
The weighted compensation cost entropy defined by formula (7) can not only embody interruptible load cost of compensation in point in each section
Cloth situation, moreover it is possible to comprehensively consider the size of each section cost of compensation, can more efficiently characterize to lose caused by generation deficiency and bear
Influence of the lotus amount to power grid risk level.
(2) Two indices combine weighted entropy
The calculating of the cost entropy of same steps is carried out to power grid short-term operation cost with the method for a section.To comprehensively consider
Influence of the load compensation cost to power grid risk is lost caused by short-term operation cost caused by Network congestion and generation deficiency, is now drawn
Enter this index of joint weighted entropy.
In information theory, combined signal source can consider to be made of two information sources X, Y, and probability distribution can mathematically indicate
Are as follows:
A combined signal source, joint probability space are formed with the two information sources are as follows:
The combination entropy of two-dimensional random variable is defined as the mathematic expectaion of joint self-information, it is being averaged for two-dimensional random variable
Probabilistic measurement, the calculation formula of combination entropy are as follows:
If using interruptible load cost of compensation and short-term operation cost as this two-dimensional random variable, and with each section
Average unit cost wiAnd viAs weight, then the joint weighted entropy of operation of power networks are as follows:
Therefore, Two indices joint weighted entropy comprehensively considers the trend distribution of power grid, loses load and obstruction severity pair
The influence of power grid risk level and self-organized criticality, compensates for the deficiency of single index analysis.
4 Risk assessment frameworks
A large amount of power grid high risk N-3 operating statuses are considered, by the power grid dynamic power flow for establishing meter and optimal load curtailment
Model seek deploying node and lose load, thus calculate power grid interruptible load cost of compensation and short-term operation at
The single evaluations index such as this, the definition for introducing entropy index carry out probability statistics and joint assessment to above-mentioned single index, complete
Combined reliability assessment and the analysis of self-organizing critical state under system high risk failure operation state.Specific step is as follows.
Step 1: reading system primitive network parameter, the essential information and system N-3 failure operation mode collection of each Power Generation,
Dynamic economic dispatch model is solved using prim al- dual interior point m ethod, obtain LMP and loses load.When trend is not restrained according to excitation
Compatible management mode determines optimal cutting load amount.
Step 2: the power grid calculated under various failure operation modes loses the single wind such as load cost and short-term operation cost
Dangerous evaluation index.
Step 3: introducing the concept of weighted entropy, single finger is carried out respectively to the mistake load cost and short-term operation cost of power grid
The calculating of weighted entropy is marked, generation deficiency is horizontal and clogged conditions are respectively to the influence of power grid risk to describe.
Step 4: calculating joint weighted entropy index, comprehensively consider short-term operation cost and generation deficiency caused by Network congestion
The caused influence for losing load compensation cost to power grid risk, thus the net assessment of complete paired systems operation risk.
Specific implementation flow is as shown in Figure 1.
(1) key problem in technology of the invention point:
1) Electrical Power System Dynamic alternating current optimal power flow problem is solved based on former dual interior point, as system scale increases
Greatly, the method remains to restrain rapidly, reduces the number of iterations, strong robustness.
2) interruptible load based on compatible incentives model cuts down algorithm, can motivate the true benefit letter of reporting of user oneself
Number, is conducive to the interests for comprehensively considering genco and user, can be used for the Different Optimization target of load rejection distribution.
3) comprehensively consider power grid and two different interests main bodys of load, propose the mistake load for representing user's power loss risk
Cost and the short-term operation cost for representing network risks.
4) concept and method of weighted entropy and joint weighted entropy are introduced in power networks risk assessment, both considers wind
Danger is horizontal, it is also considered that the distribution situation of risk.
(2) innovative point of the present invention:
1) deploying node is introduced as complementary analysis tool, has given full play to it in electricity transaction and processing transmission of electricity
The important function having in obstruction.
2) present invention is scanned high risk N-3 line fault scene, and risk assessment is enabled to consider a large amount of high risks
Fault scenes.
3) risk of power grid Yu two different interests main bodys of load has been comprehensively considered, has been established based on Two indices joint weighted entropy
Power grid risk index, level and dispersion degree to risk carry out comprehensive assessment.
Finally, it is stated that preferred embodiment above is only used to illustrate the technical scheme of the present invention and not to limit it, although logical
It crosses above preferred embodiment the present invention is described in detail, however, those skilled in the art should understand that, can be
Various changes are made to it in form and in details, without departing from claims of the present invention limited range.
Claims (5)
1. the power grid risk analysis method based on deploying node, it is characterised in that: method includes the following steps:
S1: the calculating of the deploying node based on AC power flow；
S2: the single index analysis of power grid risk assessment；
S3: the power grid risk comprehensive assessment based on joint weighted entropy；
S4: to the net assessment of network system operation risk.
2. the power grid risk analysis method according to claim 1 based on deploying node, it is characterised in that: the step
Rapid S1 specifically:
Using the minimum optimization aim letter as system of the sum of coal consumption expense, pollution processing cost and mistake load compensation expense cost
Number, considers following constraint: active power and reactive power equilibrium, unit output bound, unit climbing, cut load bound,
Node voltage bound and Line Flow constraint based on AC power flow, establish the dynamic optimal mould of power grid economic load dispatching a few days ago
Type:
In model, number of segment when T is total；M is interstitial content；ai、biAnd ciFor the coefficient of the coal consumption cost function of generating set；kiFor
Pollute the coefficient of processing cost function；riFor the coefficient for losing load compensation expense linear function；Pgi、QgiIndicate generating set i's
Active and reactive power output；Pdi、QdiIndicate the active and reactive load in node i；Pij、QijIndicate route lijUpper circulation active and
Reactive power；Pci、QciIt indicates active and reactive to cut load in node i；PgimaxAnd PgiminIndicate generated power power output
Upper and lower limit；QgimaxAnd QgiminIndicate the upper and lower limit of the idle power output of generator i；riFor the creep speed of unit i；VimaxAnd Vimin
Indicate the voltage magnitude upper and lower limit of node i；SlimaxAnd SliminThe trend apparent energy upper and lower limit of route l-i is flowed through in expression；It cuts
Load is cut down according to the principle of constant power factor；
For the demand for meeting calculating and the scheduling of Spot Price under Power Market, using prim al- dual interior point m ethod to formula (1) into
Row solves, and realizes the linkage that the calculating of LMP Link Manager Protocol (Link Manager Protocol, LMP) and optimal load flow calculate；
The essence of interior point method is the combination of Lagrangian, logarithmic barrier function and Newton method three, and thinking is: meeting pine
Relaxation variable and Lagrange multiplier are greater than in zero or minus situation, and along feasible direction, iteration, which is found out, subtracts objective function
Small interior point repeats this process until obtaining optimal value；The deploying node calculation formula at certain moment is as follows:
Li=λ-∑ Aim×Pim+λ(Fi-1) (2)
In formula, LiIndicate the Marginal Pricing of node i；λ is the reference electricity price of balance nodes；AimThe node i of transfer for to(for) route m
The factor；PlmFor the shadow price of route m；FiIt is node i for the loss penalty factor of balance nodes.
3. the power grid risk analysis method according to claim 2 based on deploying node, it is characterised in that: the step
Rapid S2 specifically:
(1) interruptible load cost of compensation
The interruptible load cost of compensation of different stage has difference, uses r in formula (3)jTo indicate；The decision of dispatcher according to
The product of making up price and outage capacity is formulated with total cost least principle；The interruptible load cost of compensation of certain period is used
Following formula calculates:
In formula, DcThe cost of compensation of interruptible load is cut off for the period；NcFor the number of users for participating in interruptible load；rjWith
PcjRespectively cut off the load and its unit price of user j；
(2) power grid short-term operation cost
In the case where network congestion, economize on electricity electricity price can completely embody influence of the network constraint to node marginal cost, base
It is as follows in the power grid short-term operation costing formula of node electricity price method, under Pool mode:
In formula, NloadFor load number；NgenFor generating set number；qvAnd PvThe respectively electricity price and power of load bus v；qw
And PwThe respectively electricity price and power of power generation node w.
4. the power grid risk analysis method according to claim 3 based on deploying node, it is characterised in that: the step
Rapid S3 specifically:
(1) single index weighted entropy
For the interruptible load cost of compensation under M N-3 failure operation mode of power grid, give constant sequence U=[U1,
U2 ..., Un], use lkIndicate interruptible load cost of compensation wi∈(Uk,Uk+1] number, then cost belongs to section (Uk,Uk+1]
Probability P (k) are as follows:
The power grid interruptible load cost of compensation entropy under the M kind method of operation is obtained according to Shannon's theorems and formula (5) are as follows:
Known by formula (3), when the order of in probability vector P=(P1, P2 ..., Pn-1) component arbitrarily converts, the value of entropy function
It is constant；Entropy function (6) is weighted with the power grid in each section interruptible load cost of compensation that is averaged, obtains weighted compensation cost
Entropy are as follows:
In formula, W (k) is interruptible load cost of compensation wi∈(Uk, Uk+1] all operating conditions mean compensation algorithm cost, if
(Uk,Uk+1] there is t value at cost in section, then
(2) Two indices combine weighted entropy
The calculating of the cost entropy of same steps is carried out to power grid short-term operation cost with the method for a section；To comprehensively consider power grid
Influence of the load compensation cost to power grid risk is lost caused by short-term operation cost caused by blocking and generation deficiency, introduces joint
This index of weighted entropy；
In information theory, combined signal source is made of two information sources X, Y, and probability distribution is mathematically represented as:
A combined signal source, joint probability space are formed with the two information sources are as follows:
The combination entropy of two-dimensional random variable is defined as the mathematic expectaion of joint self-information, it is the average not true of two-dimensional random variable
Qualitatively measurement, the calculation formula of combination entropy are as follows:
If using interruptible load cost of compensation and short-term operation cost as this two-dimensional random variable, and being averaged with each section
Cost wiAnd viAs weight, then the joint weighted entropy of operation of power networks are as follows:
Two indices joint weighted entropy comprehensively considers the trend distribution of power grid, loses load and obstruction severity to power grid risk water
Flat and self-organized criticality influence, makes up the deficiency of single index analysis.
5. the power grid risk analysis method according to claim 4 based on deploying node, it is characterised in that: the step
Rapid S4 specifically:
Step 1: reading system primitive network parameter, the essential information and system N-3 failure operation mode collection of each Power Generation use
Prim al- dual interior point m ethod solves dynamic economic dispatch model, obtains LMP and loses load；When trend is not restrained according to compatible incentives
Management mode determine optimal cutting load amount；
Step 2: the power grid calculated under various failure operation modes loses load cost and one risk assessment of short-term operation cost sheet
Index；
Step 3: introducing the concept of weighted entropy, single index is carried out with short-term operation cost to the mistake load cost of power grid respectively and is added
The calculating of entropy is weighed, generation deficiency is horizontal and clogged conditions are respectively to the influence of power grid risk to describe；
Step 4: calculating joint weighted entropy index, comprehensively consider short-term operation cost and generation deficiency caused by Network congestion and cause
Influence of the mistake load compensation cost to power grid risk, thus the net assessment of complete paired systems operation risk.
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