CN105719062A - Method for assessing risks and weak links of power grid, with double fault probability characteristics considered - Google Patents

Method for assessing risks and weak links of power grid, with double fault probability characteristics considered Download PDF

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Publication number
CN105719062A
CN105719062A CN201610028535.9A CN201610028535A CN105719062A CN 105719062 A CN105719062 A CN 105719062A CN 201610028535 A CN201610028535 A CN 201610028535A CN 105719062 A CN105719062 A CN 105719062A
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probability
power
risk
data
fault
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CN105719062B (en
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王建学
田春筝
周锟
王圆圆
周玉龙
赵天辉
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Xian Jiaotong University
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Co Ltd
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Xian Jiaotong University
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management, e.g. organising, planning, scheduling or allocating time, human or machine resources; Enterprise planning; Organisational models
    • G06Q10/063Operations research or analysis
    • G06Q10/0635Risk analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply

Abstract

Provided is a method for assessing risks and weak links of a power grid, with double fault probability characteristics considered. Firstly, system basic technical data, system running constraint condition data and component reliability data are acquired from an electric power system planning department. Then, the basic power flow distribution situation of the system is calculated. According to the load shedding amount and the system N-1 fault state probability of the N-1 condition and the load shedding amount and the system N-2 fault state approximate probability of the N-2 condition, risk participation factors of the Expected Power Not Supplied (EPNS) of the system of an electric generator or power transmission equipment are calculated. The risk participation factors are ranked. If the risk participation factor of some component is relatively large, then the component is relatively weak in the power grid and is a weak link of the power grid. In the invention, since double fault and probability information is considered, calculation results are relatively accurate and achieve relatively great reference value. The method of the invention significantly reduces computing resource consumption and shortens the computing time while guaranteeing the accuracy of system probability indexes.

Description

A kind of power grid risk considering double probability of malfunction characteristic and weak link appraisal procedure
Technical field
The invention belongs to Electric Power Network Planning technical field, relate to a kind of electrical network wind considering probability and double fault Danger and weak link appraisal procedure.
Background technology
In the Power System Planning stage, the assessment most typical method of electric network security is N-1 static security analysis. After this criterion calls arbitrarily disconnects an element in power system, system remains to keep safe operation, i.e. N-1 Criterion.This kind of method be widely applied at present power system planning, design, the link such as operation.But, The serious power outage repeatedly occurred promotes it was recognized that the N-1 criterion that uses for many years of power industry, the most not Be enough to keep the rational risk level of power system.
N-1 criteria evaluation method two subject matters of existence: 1) element in network is not carried out probabilistic Modeling, The consequence that fault causes can only be provided, but cannot provide the probabilistic information of this event of failure, along with Electric Power Network Planning The uncertain factor being faced with gets more and more, and is difficult to obtain preferably in terms of solving probabilistic problem Effect.2) furthermore, N-1 criterion is single element fault criterion, in current complicated network system, The major accident multiple failure often that occurs of system causes, and this situation N-1 criterion cannot consider.
In order to solve the above-mentioned two problems of tradition N-1 criterion, occur in that power system based on Risk Theory Methods of risk assessment.Compared with previous methods, risk assessment can by accident occur probability with produce consequence (as Economic loss etc.) the order of severity combine, risk and benefit to system are considered as a whole, by system Economic security index quantify.But, in order to obtain system index accurately, it is necessary for carrying out greatly The Monte Carlo sampling of amount, which results in calculating resource consumption big, calculates time-consuming long problem.Especially should Being used in practical power systems, the calculating time generally requires tens hours, greatly limit its application.
Summary of the invention
For overcoming the problems of the prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of result of calculation more accurate, Save the calculating time and power grid risk level and weak link can be given, the electric power of reference is provided for planning personnel System evaluation method.
For achieving the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that:
A kind of power grid risk considering double probability of malfunction characteristic and weak link appraisal procedure, including following step Rapid:
Step 1: obtain system basic technical data from Power System Planning department, system runs constraints number According to, component reliability data;
System basic technical data include node data, transmission line data, transformator data, load data with And alternator data;
System run constraints include each generating set exert oneself upper lower limit value, reactive source is idle exerts oneself bound Value, node voltage upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value;
Component reliability data include the forced outage rate FOR of element ii
Step 2: calculate the basic trend distribution situation of system;
Step 3: consider N-1 situation: on the basis of the trend distribution situation of basis, fault-free is broken one by one in step 2 Exploitation motor, circuit, transformator carry out Load flow calculation after single element, checks Power grid structure change The out-of-limit situation of the power of circuit and transformator front and back;If creating the feelings that power is out-of-limit or trend does not restrains Condition, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N-1 fault shape The probability that state occurs;
Step 4: consider N-2 situation: on the basis of trend distribution situation, gradually fault-free disconnection is sent out in step 2 Motor, circuit, transformator carry out after any two element Load flow calculation again, checks Power grid structure The out-of-limit situation of the power of circuit and transformator before and after change;If created, power is out-of-limit or trend does not restrains Situation, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N-2 therefore The approximation probability that barrier state occurs;
Step 5: the probability that the cutting load amount obtained according to step 3 and system N-1 malfunction occur, and Cutting load amount that step 4 obtains and the approximation probability that system N-2 malfunction occurs, use probability weight Mode calculates systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP when considering double fault and underpower expected value EPNS;
Step 6: according to the systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS of step 5, Calculate each electromotor or the transmission facility contribution situation to system power deficiency expected value EPNS, i.e. risk to participate in The factor;
Step 7: the risk participation factors of electromotor each to whole system and transmission facility is ranked up, if certain is first The biggest then this element of risk participation factors of part is the weakest in electrical network, belongs to the weak link of electrical network.
The probability P that in described step 3, system N-1 malfunction occursk,N-1Obtained by formula (1):
Pk,N-1=FORiN-1(1-FORj) (1)
In above formula, i is the element broken down, and j is the element not broken down, FORiIt is forcing of element i Outage rate, ∏N-1(1-FORj) it is that beyond element i, the trouble-proof probability of all elements is long-pending.
The approximation probability P that in described step 4, system N-2 malfunction occursk,N-2Obtained by formula (2):
Pk,N-2=FORm×FORn (2)
In above formula, FORnAnd FORmIt is the forced outage rate of fault element n and m respectively.
In described step 5, systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS is by formula (3) Obtain with formula (4):
LOLP=1-∏k∈I(1-Pk) (3)
EPNS=∑k∈IPkWcut,k (4)
In both the above formula, it is that all meetings obtained in step 3 and step 4 cause system cutting load The set of N-1 and N-2 malfunction;PkIt it is the probability of system fault condition k generation;Wcut,kIt is at system Cutting load amount after being adjusted by optimal load flow when malfunction k.
In described step 6, the risk participation factors of each electromotor or transmission facility is obtained by formula (5):
RLoss,i=(∑k∈AWcut,kPk)/EPNS (5)
In above formula, RLoss,iBeing the risk participation factors of transmission facility i, A is all in transmission facility i fault There is to lose the malfunction of load in simultaneity factor.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention is:
1) in the assessment probability index of system, it is accurate that the present invention has result of calculation simultaneously, calculates the shortest Advantage.Contrasting traditional N-1 criterion, in the present invention, the method for proposition is owing to only need to consider double fault, Greatly reduce the system mode number needing to be estimated, decrease calculating resource consumption, when shortening calculating Between;And owing to the probability that double above fault occurs in electrical network is the least, institute of the present invention extracting method still may be used To calculate the probability level with high accuracy.
2) finding in power system weak link, the present invention assesses based on probability N-2, gives risk ginseng With level of factor, compensate for tradition risk assessment and carry out mainly around node load, and the most directly characterize The index defect of Net Frame of Electric Network importance.And according to risk participation factors index, can preferably grasp electrical network In may produce the Net Frame of Electric Network weak link of serious consequence because of fault.
Power department is mainly based upon deterministic N-1 standard to the risk of electrical network and the assessment of weak link at present Then, the present invention proposes a set of brand-new complete electric network reliability and weak link appraisal procedure, contrasts base In the Model in Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems of Monte Carlo simulation, the present invention can ensure that system probability level is certain While degree of accuracy, greatly reduce calculating resource consumption, shorten the calculating time.The method can become tradition The important supplement of certainty criterion, has bigger using value in China's Power System Planning field, gram Having taken N-1 criterion in prior art and can not reflect probabilistic information, result of calculation is inaccurate and power system can The problem calculating overlong time by property assessment.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is power grid risk of the present invention and the calculation process schematic diagram of weak link assessment.
Detailed description of the invention
The invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but present disclosure is not limited solely to this.
In the present invention, element includes electromotor, transformator and transmission line of electricity.
When applying institute's extracting method of the present invention, need first to obtain related data from Electric Power Network Planning department.From electrical network System basic technical data, system that planning department obtains run constraints data, component reliability data;
System basic technical data include node data, transmission line data, transformator data, load data with And alternator data;
System run constraints data include each generating set exert oneself upper lower limit value, reactive source is idle exert oneself on Lower limit, node voltage upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value.
In addition to the above master data being used for Load flow calculation, in addition it is also necessary to acquisition component reliability data:
Component reliability data include the forced outage rate of element (electromotor, transformator and transmission line of electricity) i FORi
See Fig. 1, after Electric Power Network Planning department obtains above-mentioned information, the most successively electrical network is examined Consider risk and the weak link assessment of probability and double fault.
Step 1, obtains the power system basic technical data of planning from Power System Planning department.
Step 2, calculates the basic trend distribution situation of system.
Step 3, it is considered to all N-1 malfunctions, i.e. step 2 basis Load flow calculation on the basis of one by one without Fault carries out Load flow calculation after disconnecting the single elements such as electromotor, circuit, transformator, check Net Frame of Electric Network knot The result such as the out-of-limit situation of power of circuit and transformator before and after structure change.If it is out-of-limit or damp to create power The situation that stream is not restrained, then utilize with the system minimum object function of cutting load amount, it is considered to operation of power networks retrains The optimal load flow model of condition, it is judged that system the need of excision load, if desired cutting load, then records this Time cutting load amount, and calculate current system N-1 malfunction occur probability.The element that note is currently cut-off For i, the then probability P that current system N-1 malfunction occursk,N-1As shown in formula (1).
Pk,N-1=FORiN-1(1-FORj) (1)
In above formula, ∏N-1(1-FORj) it is that beyond element i, the trouble-proof probability of all elements is long-pending.
It should be noted that the currently practical operation electrical network overwhelming majority meets N-1 criterion, i.e. can skip This step;But the electrical network of new planning differs and meets N-1 criterion surely, it is still desirable to this step.
Step 4, it is considered to all N-2 malfunctions, the most in step 2 on the basis of Load flow calculation the most without reason Barrier disconnects and carries out Load flow calculation in electromotor, circuit, transformator after any two element again, checks electrical network The result such as the out-of-limit situation of power of circuit and transformator before and after grid structure change.If it is out-of-limit to create power Or the situation that trend does not restrains, then utilize with the system minimum object function of cutting load amount, it is considered to electrical network is transported The optimal load flow model of row constraint condition, it is judged that system is the need of excision load, and if desired excision load is then Record cutting load amount now, and calculate the approximation probability that current system N-2 malfunction occurs.Note is current The element cut-off is m and n, then the approximation probability P that current system N-2 malfunction occursk,N-2Such as formula (2) Shown in.
Pk,N-2=FORm×FORn (2)
In above formula, FORmAnd FORnIt is element m and the forced outage rate of element n respectively.
Step 5, the probability occurred according to the cutting load amount obtained in step 3 and current system N-1 malfunction, The mode using probability weight calculates system index loss of load probability LOLP when considering double fault and power Not enough expected value EPNS.Shown in its expression formula such as formula (3) and formula (4).
LOLP=1-∏k∈I(1-Pk) (3)
EPNS=Σk∈IPkWCut, k (4)
In both the above formula, I is the N-1 that all meetings obtained in step 3 and step 4 cause system cutting load Set with N-2 malfunction;PkIt it is the probability of system fault condition k generation;Wcut,kIt is that system is in event Cutting load amount after being adjusted by optimal load flow during barrier state k.
Step 6, in order to embody the different transmission facility contribution situation to system power deficiency expected value EPNS, Find out the weak link of electrical network, according to systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and the underpower expectation of step 5 Value EPNS, calculates each electromotor or transmission facility (transmission facility includes circuit, transformator) to system power The contribution situation of not enough expected value EPNS, i.e. risk participation factors, as shown in formula (5).
RLoss,i==(∑keAWcut,kPk)/EPNS (5)
In above formula, RLoss,iBeing the risk participation factors of transmission facility i, A is all in transmission facility i fault There is to lose the malfunction of load in simultaneity factor.
Step 7: the risk participation factors of electromotor each to whole system and transmission facility is ranked up, if certain The risk participation factors of element is relatively big, illustrates that the impact that it breaks down is more serious, and belong in electrical network is thin Weak link.
The present invention proposes a kind of power grid risk considering double probability of malfunction characteristic and weak link appraisal procedure, And electric network reliability index and the weak link confession planning personnel's reference considering under double failure condition can be given at. The electrical network appraisal procedure that the present invention is carried has two functions: 1, assess the risk indicator of system, and 2, find out The weak link of Net Frame of Electric Network.
First, the present invention is by assessing all double malfunctions, and calculates its probability occurred, with weighting Mode obtain the risk indicator of system;Second, the present invention proposes the concept of risk participation factors, by meter Calculate different elements and the contribution situation of EPNS is found out the weak link in electrical network.Contrast traditional N-1 criterion, Due to the fact that and consider double fault and probabilistic information, result of calculation is the most accurate, has more reference value; Contrasting Model in Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems based on Monte Carlo simulation, the present invention can ensure that system probability refers to While marking certain degree of accuracy, greatly reduce calculating resource consumption, shorten the calculating time.To sum up, the present invention There is in the Power System Planning of current China preferable application prospect, can be as power network planning scheme Effectively appraisal procedure.

Claims (5)

1. the power grid risk considering double probability of malfunction characteristic and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: Comprise the following steps:
Step 1: obtain system basic technical data from Power System Planning department, system runs constraints number According to, component reliability data;
System basic technical data include node data, transmission line data, transformator data, load data with And alternator data;
System run constraints include each generating set exert oneself upper lower limit value, reactive source is idle exerts oneself bound Value, node voltage upper lower limit value and Branch Power Flow upper lower limit value;
Component reliability data include the forced outage rate FOR of element ii
Step 2: calculate the basic trend distribution situation of system;
Step 3: consider N-1 situation: on the basis of the trend distribution situation of basis, fault-free is broken one by one in step 2 Exploitation motor, circuit, transformator carry out Load flow calculation after single element, checks Power grid structure change The out-of-limit situation of the power of circuit and transformator front and back;If creating the feelings that power is out-of-limit or trend does not restrains Condition, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N-1 fault shape The probability that state occurs;
Step 4: consider N-2 situation: on the basis of trend distribution situation, gradually fault-free disconnection is sent out in step 2 Motor, circuit, transformator carry out after any two element Load flow calculation again, checks Power grid structure The out-of-limit situation of the power of circuit and transformator before and after change;If created, power is out-of-limit or trend does not restrains Situation, then use optimal load flow model to carry out cutting load, record cutting load amount, and calculate system N-2 therefore The approximation probability that barrier state occurs;
Step 5: the probability that the cutting load amount obtained according to step 3 and system N-1 malfunction occur, and Cutting load amount that step 4 obtains and the approximation probability that system N-2 malfunction occurs, use probability weight Mode calculates systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP when considering double fault and underpower expected value EPNS;
Step 6: according to the systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS of step 5, Calculate each electromotor or the transmission facility contribution situation to system power deficiency expected value EPNS, i.e. risk to participate in The factor;
Step 7: the risk participation factors of electromotor each to whole system and transmission facility is ranked up, if certain is first The biggest then this element of risk participation factors of part is the weakest in electrical network, belongs to the weak link of electrical network.
2. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute State the probability P that in step 3, system N-1 malfunction occursK, N-1Obtained by formula (1):
PK, N-1=FORiΠN-1(1-FORj) (1)
In above formula, i is the element broken down, and j is the element not broken down, FORiIt is forcing of element i Outage rate, ΠN-1(1-FORj) it is that beyond element i, the trouble-proof probability of all elements is long-pending.
3. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute State the approximation probability P that in step 4, system N-2 malfunction occursK, N-2Obtained by formula (2):
PK, N-2=FORm×FORn (2)
In above formula, FORnAnd FORmIt is the forced outage rate of fault element n and m respectively.
4. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute State in step 5 systematic electricity shortfall probability LOLP and underpower expected value EPNS by formula (3) and formula (4) Obtain:
LOLP=1-Πk∈I(1-Pk) (3)
EPNS=∑k∈IPkWCut, k (4)
In both the above formula, I is that all meetings obtained in step 3 and step 4 cause system cutting load The set of N-1 and N-2 malfunction;PkIt it is the probability of system fault condition k generation;WCut, kIt is at system Cutting load amount after being adjusted by optimal load flow when malfunction k.
5. a kind of power grid risk as claimed in claim 1 and weak link appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that: institute The risk participation factors stating each electromotor or transmission facility in step 6 is obtained by formula (5):
RLoss, i=(∑k∈AWCut, kPk)/EPNS (5)
In above formula, RLoss, iBeing the risk participation factors of transmission facility i, A is all in transmission facility i fault There is to lose the malfunction of load in simultaneity factor.
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