CN108427856A - A kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curve-fitting methods of power distribution network - Google Patents
A kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curve-fitting methods of power distribution network Download PDFInfo
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- CN108427856A CN108427856A CN201810297818.2A CN201810297818A CN108427856A CN 108427856 A CN108427856 A CN 108427856A CN 201810297818 A CN201810297818 A CN 201810297818A CN 108427856 A CN108427856 A CN 108427856A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
The present invention proposes a kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curve-fitting methods of power distribution network.The meteorological data that the present invention is provided by the true disaster loss data of history typhoon and meteorological department, by calculating the fitting index F in probability of malfunction curve corresponding to different K valuesapproOptimal K values are obtained, and then fit the probability of malfunction curve of the 10 kilovolts of shaft towers of optimal power distribution network to match with practical disaster loss result.It is of the invention simple and quick effectively to fit the security risk assessment that can be applied to distribution shaft tower in power distribution network under violent typhoon environment suitable for the distribution line failure probability curve under violent typhoon environment.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curve-fitting methods of power distribution network.
Background technology
Typhoon is a kind of natural calamity that huge structural destruction can be caused to power grid.It is influenced by violent typhoon, U.S.'s ink
Western brother gulf area power grid, eastern region power grid and China southeastern coastal areas power grid are that the whole world is easiest to break by typhoon
Bad power grid.For some area power grid under violent typhoon environment, high wind speed and a wide range of rainfall of typhoon can cause easily
Electric equipment element permanent failure in power grid.For typhoon, the typhoon eye of wind is the strongest region of typhoon wind-force, typhoon wind speed
Reach maximum value at eye of wind edge, therefore typhoon wind the structure of the eye destructive power is most strong, it is also the most apparent to power grid harm.In power grid
In numerous component equipments, distribution line and distribution shaft tower are the electrical equipments most easily destroyed by typhoon.From China's southeastern coast electricity
From the point of view of net history typhoon disaster loss statistical result, most of distribution line falls tower and is happened in eye of wind region.In violent typhoon
Under environment, the probability of malfunction of distribution line shaft tower will be with born air speed value and increase and significantly increase, it is therefore desirable to build
Vertical 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curves of power distribution network suitable under violent typhoon environment.
The problem of distribution line failure probability function is fitted under related violent typhoon environment, acquiring method generally has following two
Kind：
(1) historical failure rate statistical value is used.Traditional method is usually the average value counted with history chromic trouble rate
Go the failure rate of replacement distribution line.
(2) it is obtained by establishing Optimized model solution nonlinear equation.Probability of malfunction curve best fit question essence and
Speech is seek optimal solution the problem of.
The above two classes method lacks during 10 kilovolts of shaft tower failure rate functions of power distribution network are sought under violent typhoon environment there are following
Point：
(1) to using for historical failure rate statistical value, the historical failure rate statistical value of distribution line shaft tower is circuit event
The average value of barrier rate statistics, can not reflect that distribution line short duration failure rate is influenced by violent typhoon weather.Although violent typhoon is sent out
Raw probability is low and duration is not grown, but the probability of malfunction of 10 kilovolts of shaft towers of power distribution network is more general under this extreme weather
Many has been higher by for situation.
(2) for solving the method for nonlinear equation by establishing Optimized model, although being asked by establishing Optimized model
The method of solution nonlinear equation can solve probability of malfunction curve, but due to probability of malfunction curve best fit problem this substantially
It is seek optimal K values the problem of, operand and difficulty can be increased using Nonlinear System of Equations significantly.
In view of in 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction optimization of profile models of power distribution network containing only there are one unknown variable K, to have
Effect establishes the distribution line failure probability curve being suitable under violent typhoon environment, by the true disaster loss data of history typhoon and gas
As department provides near the ground wind field of the data to typhoon：Especially wind speed maximum, the eye of wind half to electric network element most destructive power
Diameter carries out calculating solution.And unknown variable K values how are effectively solved to obtain the power distribution network 10,000 being suitable under violent typhoon environment
Shaft tower probability of malfunction curve is lied prostrate, is prior art difficult point.
Invention content
Based on the above shortcoming, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curves of power distribution network
Approximating method, this method quickly and effectively can be fitted simply suitable for violent typhoon according to history typical case's typhoon disaster loss data
10kV distribution line shaft tower probability of malfunction curves under environment.The present invention is applied under violent typhoon environment distribution line in power distribution network
With the security risk assessment of distribution shaft tower.
The object of the present invention is achieved like this：A kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curve-fitting methods of power distribution network, packet
Include following steps：
Step 1：
Shaft tower failure rate formula：
And shaft tower probability of malfunction formula：
Wherein, VminFor designed wind speed of poles and towers, VexFor the Limit of Wind Speed of shaft tower, Vex=2Vmin, K is that shaft tower probability of malfunction is bent
The crucial variable to be identified of line carries out M deciles to the possible section [X, Y] of K values, and X values 0.05, Y values 0.25, M is taken as 100；
Step 2：According to single shaft tower failure rate formula and probability of malfunction formula, according to formula (1) K different from formula (2) drafting
Corresponding wind speed-probability of malfunction the curve, i.e. V-P of valuesCurve；
Step 3：Certain true typhoon passes through power distribution network region to be studied, then the solar or lunar halo corresponding to its different wind speed with
Guild scans out a specific disaster-stricken band in disaster area before center of typhoon, for wind speed ViCorresponding devastated band, should be by
The disconnected bar probability that fallen in the band of disaster area domain is expressed as：
In formula：It is total for all shaft towers in region,To be fallen in region, disconnected shaft tower is total, by formula (3) for more
A disaster-stricken band of difference obtains different wind speed ViCorresponding
Step 4：Defining the single shaft tower probability simulation index that breaks down is：
In formula：For V under the conditions of special defining K valueiCorresponding PsValue, according in the corresponding devastated band of corresponding wind speed
Break corresponding to bar probability and the different K values that are obtained by step 2Value, calculate different K values respectively corresponding to fitting refer to
Mark Fappro, finally take all FapproK corresponding to minimum value is as optimal K values.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows：
(1) present invention effectively increases 10 kilovolts of shaft towers and falls the accuracy of disconnected bar probability of malfunction curve；
(2) the bar probability of malfunction curve that falls to break recognized, can effectively assess power distribution network disaster loss under violent typhoon environment, be distribution
Network operation repair personnel provides sufficient circuit warning information, carries out circuit power distribution network Yi Dan broken in advance and difference occurs
The preparation of dangerous operating condition reduces society and economy loss；
(3) the optimal K values of disconnected bar probability of malfunction curve of falling calculate succinct convenient, and method can be expanded effectively to other voltages etc.
During the bar probability of malfunction Drawing of Curve that falls to break of grade circuit.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the control flow chart of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the approximation relation figure of single shaft tower failure rate and suffered air speed value；
Fig. 3 is Wei Maxun to the cities WC of H provinces power distribution network influence area schematic diagram；
Specific implementation mode
The invention will be further described for citing below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Embodiment 1
A kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curve-fitting methods of power distribution network, include the following steps：
Step 1：
Shaft tower failure rate formula：
And shaft tower probability of malfunction formula：
Wherein, VminFor designed wind speed of poles and towers, VexFor the Limit of Wind Speed of shaft tower, Vex=2Vmin, K is that shaft tower probability of malfunction is bent
The crucial variable to be identified of line carries out M deciles to the possible section [X, Y] of K values, and X values 0.05, Y values 0.25, M is taken as 100；
Step 2：According to single shaft tower failure rate formula and probability of malfunction formula, according to formula (1) K different from formula (2) drafting
Corresponding wind speed-probability of malfunction the curve, i.e. V-P of valuesCurve；
Step 3：Certain true typhoon passes through power distribution network region to be studied, then the solar or lunar halo corresponding to its different wind speed with
Guild scans out a specific disaster-stricken band in disaster area before center of typhoon, for wind speed ViCorresponding devastated band, should be by
The disconnected bar probability that fallen in the band of disaster area domain is expressed as：
In formula：It is total for all shaft towers in region,To be fallen in region, disconnected shaft tower is total, by formula (3) for more
A disaster-stricken band of difference obtains different wind speed ViCorresponding
Step 4：Defining the single shaft tower probability simulation index that breaks down is：
In formula：For V under the conditions of special defining K valueiCorresponding PsValue, according in the corresponding devastated band of corresponding wind speed
Break corresponding to bar probability and the different K values that are obtained by step 2Value, calculate different K values respectively corresponding to fitting refer to
Mark Fappro, finally take all FapproK corresponding to minimum value is as optimal K values
Embodiment 2
The example that true typhoon damages power grid distribution line shaft tower is used to verify the validity of this method.
2014 Super Typhoon Wei Maxun (number 1409) power grid saved to China coast H cause extremely serious destruction.Choose typhoon
Wei Maxun calculates power distribution network shaft tower probability of malfunction parameter of curve as typical disaster loss scene.
The relationship of single shaft tower failure rate and born air speed value is established, as shown in Figure 2.If V in Fig. 2minFor 32m/s, Vex
For 64m/s.To falling disconnected bar probability calculation with decisive role, K values can be assessed parameter K according to the true typhoon disaster of history.
When typhoon Wei Maxun passes through the cities WC of H provinces power distribution network region, then the solar or lunar halo corresponding to its different wind speed is with typhoon
Guild scans out a specific disaster-stricken band in somewhere before center.So, you can the typhoon number provided according to meteorological observatory
According to and classics Rankie models, calculate the solar or lunar halo corresponding to different wind speed, and geographical generalized information system is combined to determine that disaster-stricken band, Fig. 3 are
Wei Maxun is to the cities WC of H provinces power distribution network influence area schematic diagram.It is labelled with eye of wind radius and the typhoon zones radius 50KM simultaneously in Fig. 3
Domain.
The destruction that typhoon Wei Maxun in 2014 saves H WC utility grids is to study power distribution network to fall the good scene of disconnected bar.This time
H, which saves 220 or more power transmission networks, in typhoon does not have to occur tower, but the typhoon institute cities Guo WC power distribution network has occurred and falls to break on a large scale
Bar.The typhoon Typhoon Information that in the course of transit meteorological department is provided is shown in Table 1.
The Typhoon Information that 1 meteorological department of table provides
By Fig. 3 and table 1 as it can be seen that this time typhoon eye of wind radius is 20KM in event, if inswept region is within the border in the cities Qi WC
Region A, it is 60m/s that circuit, which bears wind speed, in the region.The inswept region of 50KM radiuses institute is region B, and the area is obtained by calculation
It is 42m/s that circuit, which bears mean wind speed, in domain.In certain specific region, since typhoon makees the wind load of all shaft towers in the region
With more close, the disconnected bar probability that falls in the region can be approximately considered unanimously.
Using this patent institute extracting method：
It 1) may 100 deciles of section [0.05,0.2] progress to K values；
2) according to single shaft tower failure rate formula and probability of malfunction formula, wind speed-failure corresponding to different K values is drawn
Probability curve, i.e. V-PsCurve：
3) when typhoon Wei Maxun passes through the cities WC of H provinces power distribution network region, then the solar or lunar halo corresponding to its different wind speed is with platform
Guild scans out a specific disaster-stricken band in disaster area before wind center.For wind speed ViCorresponding devastated band, this is disaster-stricken
Fall to break bar probability in the band of region：Certain bar falls disconnected bar probability as the area corresponding to 0.75,42m/s in region A corresponding to 60m/s
The disconnected bar probability that falls of certain bar is 0.3 in the B of domain.
4) it falls disconnected bar probability and to be obtained by step 2 in the corresponding devastated band of different wind speed obtained according to step 3
Different K values corresponding to PsValue, calculates the fitting index F corresponding to each K valuesappro：
Fitting index corresponding to the 2 calculated each K values of this patent institute extracting method of table
The corresponding F of different K values obtained according to table 2appro, take FapproK corresponding to minimum value is as optimal K values, then most
Excellent K values are 0.08.
It is analyzed by above-mentioned steps as it can be seen that this patent has quickly and easily effectively fitted by force according to history typhoon disaster loss data
10kV distribution line shaft tower probability of malfunction curves under typhoon environment.
10kV distribution lines shaft tower probability of malfunction curve under the violent typhoon environment that this method obtains and typhoon Wei Maxun phases
Between the practical disaster loss in the cities WC of H provinces be closely connected, compensating for the historical failure rate statistical value of distribution line shaft tower can not reflect and match
The defect that electric line short duration failure rate is influenced by violent typhoon weather.Meanwhile being fitted probability of malfunction with by Nonlinear System of Equations
The method of function is compared, and this method is by calculating the fitting index F corresponding to different K valuesappro, and then optimal K values are obtained,
Calculation amount can be effectively reduced and calculate intensity.Further embody the validity of this patent institute extracting method.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of 10 kilovolts of shaft tower probability of malfunction curve-fitting methods of power distribution network, include the following steps：
Step 1：
Shaft tower failure rate formula：
And shaft tower probability of malfunction formula：
Wherein, VminFor designed wind speed of poles and towers, VexFor the Limit of Wind Speed of shaft tower, Vex=2Vmin, K is shaft tower probability of malfunction curve pass
Key variable to be identified carries out M deciles to the possible section [X, Y] of K values, and X values 0.05, Y values 0.25, M is taken as 100；
Step 2：According to single shaft tower failure rate formula and probability of malfunction formula, different K values institute is drawn according to formula (1) and formula (2)
Corresponding wind speed-probability of malfunction curve, i.e. V-PsCurve；
Step 3：Certain true typhoon passes through power distribution network region to be studied, then the solar or lunar halo corresponding to its different wind speed is with typhoon
Guild scans out a specific disaster-stricken band in disaster area before center, for wind speed ViCorresponding devastated band, should be by disaster area
The disconnected bar probability that fallen in the band of domain is expressed as：
In formula：It is total for all shaft towers in region,To fall disconnected shaft tower sum in region, by formula (3) be directed to it is multiple not
Different wind speed V are obtained with disaster-stricken bandiCorresponding
Step 4：Defining the single shaft tower probability simulation index that breaks down is：
In formula：For V under the conditions of special defining K valueiCorresponding PsValue, according to the bar that falls to break in the corresponding devastated band of corresponding wind speed
Corresponding to probability and the different K values obtained by step 2Value, calculate different K values respectively corresponding to fitting index
Fappro, finally take all FapproK corresponding to minimum value is as optimal K values.
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