CN102590651A - Measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method - Google Patents
Measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method, and belongs to the technical field of power systems and automation thereof. The method comprises the following two steps of: (1) identifying a lightning occurrence range within a certain time period according to the measured lightning data of lightning occurrence time, occurrence positions, strength and the like which are measured, and predicting a lightning occurrence region in the next time step length and credibility thereof; and (2) calculating the lightning failure probability of each line by using a lightning failure probability formula according to real-time parameters of a line length in the predicted lightning occurrence region, the area of the predicted lighting occurrence region, thunderbolt density and the like. By the method, the line failure probability can be dynamically and adaptively evaluated according to changes in external weather conditions, so that the risks of lightning disasters can be early warned for the system; and the method is combined with a wide-area measurement analysis protection control system, so that the capability of the power system in withstanding the lightning disasters can be improved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the Power System and its Automation technical field, the present invention relates to a kind of appraisal procedure of transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction more precisely.
Background technology
Chinese Economy Development and can source distribution unbalanced, the electric power that the Midwest sends need could arrive the many coastal regions in east China of electricity needs through remote the conveying.Electric power send the increase of electrical distance to make the security of electric system and stability receive great challenge in carrying.In order to defend accidental fault to cause the electric system accident of having a power failure on a large scale, Xue Yu wins the academician and has proposed the defence framework of having a power failure on a large scale of space-time cooperative, and develops wide area and keep watch on and analyze protection control system (WARMAP).What yet this system was directed against is general successive failure, and its fault collection is changeless, can not discern the circuit that possibly break down along with the change dynamics of physical environment.The frequent a kind of high strong electromagnetic pulse phenomenon that takes place of thunder and lightning nature; Electrical network has the characteristic that wide area distributes because of it; Geometric scale reaches thousands of rice; Be very easy to receive the impact of thunder and lightning, annual China ultra-high-tension power transmission line is because the tripping operation number of times that accumulative total causes accounts for the 40%-70% of total tripping operation number of times, and thunder and lightning has become the key factor that has a strong impact on electric power netting safe running.If can a situation arises according to thunder and lightning, the lightning fault probability of transmission line of electricity in the assessment thunder and lightning zone, dynamic self-adapting ground combines the ability of the defence thunder and lightning disaster of raising electric system with wide area measurement analysis protection control system.Therefore, need the thunder and lightning of giving chapter and verse badly a situation arises the appraisal procedure of computational scheme lightning fault probability.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is: the deficiency of improving the existing defence framework that has a power failure; The fault collection of existing defence framework become by fixing risk equipment collection change online generation according to external environment and dynamically envision risk equipment collection; Thereby realize the Risk-warning of system's thunder and lightning disaster, improved the ability of electric system defence thunder and lightning disaster.
The present invention is based on the thunder and lightning measured data; Discern thunderbolt scope in each time step; Association is carried out in zone in the thunderbolt scope in a plurality of time steps; The thunder and lightning occurrence scope of the next time step of lightning information extrapolation forecast through several time steps calculates the transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction in the thunder and lightning occurrence scope.This method can overcome the deficiency of past for the lightning monitoring means, only uses the information of thunderbolt, and the zone of the following thunderbolt of forecast of extrapolating is that the result shows to have very strong practicality to a kind of brand-new trial of thunder and lightning forecast.
Specifically, the present invention takes following technical scheme to realize, comprises the following steps:
1) gathers in the fixed time scope by unified markers in control center; Thunder and lightning measured data in the geographic range of being studied (containing the moment, longitude and latitude); The geographic range lattice point of being studied (being defaulted as the grid of length of side 9km) is changed, it is divided into the lattice point of homalographic, the lattice point adjustable size.
2) the thunderbolt zone in identification step-length preset time.To the given period, the setpoint distance threshold values is 1,2 respectively ..., 5 lattice point length of sides, the lattice point that difference of longitude and difference of latitude all is less than or equal to threshold values is grouped into same a group.To first period, be that each group of being divided in 1 o'clock is as fundamental group, and with corresponding primary circle covering with threshold values.In addition, the acquiescence threshold values is that 3 o'clock results is final subregion.Describe single final subregion for the little connected domain of trying one's best with area, adopt inner contained primary circle of this subregion and outer tangent line institute region.To other period, respectively with threshold values 2,3, the subregion result of 4,5 lattice points representes with primary circle and outer tangent line institute region, and again that each threshold values is corresponding forecast result and the comparison of actual subregion choose that forecast result optimal and divide the thunder and lightning district.
3) if first time step forecasts that the result is recognition result.If the time step more than second, then the recognition result of this time step and the recognition result of a last time step are carried out relatedly, find out each regional incidence relation on two time steps.
4) forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast are forecast in the zone extrapolation that is associated, all forecast areas are formed the forecast result.
5) calculating needs the length of circuit in the thunder and lightning forecast area, the size of thunder and lightning forecast area of supervision, calls the lightning fault new probability formula and calculates the lightning fault probability.
6) by the size of line fault probability, all circuits are sorted.Filter out the bigger circuit of line fault likelihood ratio, for wide area measurement analysis protection control system provides risk equipment collection.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is following: the present invention passes through the information of thunderbolt; The occurrence scope of identification thunder and lightning; Forecast the thunderbolt scope of back time step according to the thunderbolt trend extrapolation of a plurality of time steps; The probability of calculating circuit lightning fault in the forecast scope, thus the circuit probability of malfunction assessed adaptively according to the change dynamics of external weather conditions.The fault collection that this method will have the defence framework now is become by fixing risk equipment collection and changes online generation according to external environment and dynamically envision risk equipment collection, thereby the Risk-warning of the system of realization thunder and lightning disaster has improved the ability of electric system defence thunder and lightning disaster.Because this method only need just can be forecast the thunder and lightning occurrence scope according to thunderbolt information, information acquisition is convenient, and reliability is high, has improved the ability of electric system defence thunder and lightning disaster.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the inventive method.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing 1, the inventive method is described in detail.
Step 1 is implemented in control center and gathers in the fixed time scope by unified markers among Fig. 1; Thunder and lightning measured data in the geographic range of being studied (containing the moment, longitude and latitude); The geographic range lattice point of being studied (being defaulted as the grid of length of side 9km) is changed; It is divided into the lattice point of homalographic, the lattice point adjustable size.
Step 2 realizes identification thunder and lightning occurrence scope among Fig. 1.To the given period, at first add up the thunderbolt quantity on each lattice point, the setpoint distance threshold values is 1 respectively; 2 ..., 5 lattice point length of sides; The lattice point that difference of longitude and difference of latitude all is less than or equal to threshold values is grouped into same a group, rejects the crowd of thunderbolt quantity less than certain certain value, and each group represented with circle.To first period, with threshold values be each group of being divided in 1 o'clock as fundamental group, and with corresponding primary circle coverings, in addition, the results of giving tacit consent to threshold values and being 3 o'clock is final subregion.Describe single final subregion for the little connected domain of trying one's best with area, adopt inner contained primary circle of this subregion and outer tangent line institute region.Execution in step 4 after identification is accomplished.To other period, respectively with threshold values 2,3, the subregion result of 4,5 lattice points representes with primary circle and outer tangent line institute region, and again that each threshold values is corresponding forecast result and the comparison of actual subregion choose that forecast result optimal and divide the thunder and lightning district.After identification is accomplished, execution in step 3.
Step 3 realizes the incidence relation in zone in adjacent two the time step recognition results of identification among Fig. 1.Since second time step; Compare the zone in former and later two period recognition results; (t is for calculating step-length less than
individual lattice point length if there are relation of inclusion or two interregional distances in two zones; Unit is minute), then two zones are identified as associated region.Be associated with following several kinds of situation between the zone: a regional i of previous time step is corresponding with a regional j of a back time step; A regional i of previous time step does not have the zone corresponding in a back time step; A regional j in the time step in back does not have the zone in the previous time step corresponding; The a plurality of regional i of previous time step
1, i
2...,, i
nCorresponding with a regional j of a back time step; The several regional j of a corresponding back time step of regional i of previous time step
1, j
2..., j
nTo extrapolation forecast algorithms different in the different situations invocation step 4 in the step 3.
Step 4 realizes the forecast area of extrapolation forecast associated area, the confidence level of forecast area among Fig. 1, forecast thunderbolt quantity.A regional i of previous time step and the regional j of a back time step are associated; Adopt the mobile trend of two-parameter linearized index smoothing method zoning i of holter and j center of gravity; Adopt this mobile trend to calculate the center position of forecast area, the shape of forecast area shape and regional j is identical.
Regional i to previous time step does not have the corresponding situation in zone in a back time step; Regional i is added buffer zone; If associated region appears in 3 time step inner region i; It is extracted and corresponding zone extrapolation forecast in buffer zone, otherwise after 3 time steps, from buffer zone, delete automatically.
To the situation that does not have the regional j in a zone and the back time step to be associated in the previous time step; From buffer zone, search the associated region whether regional j is arranged; If do not have; New forecast area is regional j, if having, forecasts new forecast area with zone that inquires and regional j with the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method extrapolation of holter.
A plurality of regional i to previous time step
1, i
2...,, i
nThe situation corresponding with the regional j of a back time step; Forecast the forecast result of two kinds of trend: one, merger trend: a plurality of zones of previous time step are merged into a regional i and regional j with the new forecast area of holter two-parameter linearized index smoothing method extrapolation forecast, the confidence level of forecast area is changed to 51%; Two, cleavage tendency: if regional j represent by a plurality of circles and outer tangent line thereof, then in subregion the search and regional i
1, i
2...,, i
nCorresponding j
1, j
2..., j
nIf regional j is split into regional j and regional i by a circle expression
1, i
2...,, i
nCorresponding j
1, j
2..., j
n, corresponding zone pushed away with the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method of holter forecast new forecast area, the confidence level of forecast area is changed to 49%.
Several regional j to the corresponding back time step of regional i of previous time step
1, j
2..., j
nSituation, forecast the forecast result of two kinds of trend: one, cleavage tendency: if regional i is represented then search and regional j in subregion by a plurality of circles and outer tangent line thereof
1, j
2..., j
nCorresponding i
1, i
2...,, i
nIf regional i is split into regional i and regional j by a circle expression
1, j
2..., j
nCorresponding i
1, i
2...,, i
n, with the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method of the holter new forecast area of forecast of extrapolating respectively, the confidence level of forecast area is changed to 51% to corresponding; Two, merger trend: with regional j
1, j
2..., j
nThe regional i that was merged into regional j and a last time is with the new forecast area of holter two-parameter linearized index smoothing method extrapolation forecast, and the confidence level of forecast area is changed to 49%.All forecast areas are formed the forecast result.
Step 5 realizes calculating the lightning fault probability in forecast area among Fig. 1.Calculate the length of transmission line of electricity in the forecast scope, the area of forecast scope of required supervision; Transmission line of electricity is calculated in length, thunder and lightning generation area and the forecast confidence level substitution transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction formula in the minefield, obtain the transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction.
Circuit lightning fault new probability formula is:
Wherein n is the thunderbolt density of last time step, and S is the area of lattice point, and A is hundred kilometers lightning fault probability of annual of dissimilar shaft tower.
Step 6 is embodied as wide area measurement analysis protection control system among Fig. 1 provides risk equipment collection.Size by the line fault probability sorts to all circuits.Filter out the circuit of line fault probability, with the risk centralized equipment of these line information input wide area measurement analysis protection control system greater than k (k can artificially set).
Implementation result
This method adopts in the thunder and lightning early warning system of Jiangxi.Practical operation situation with the Jiangxi system is an example, and August 13 had 4 line trippings, is respectively that 7 o'clock 44 minutes months plum lines, 8: 21 flood diversion Po I lines, 9: 06 pan copper cash, 23: 51 hawks are believed the I line.Because big vast Po I line does not have shaft tower information, except that big vast Po I line, All other routes all can correctly forecast.
Claims (10)
1. based on the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method of thunder and lightning measured data, its characteristic comprises the following steps:
1) gathers in the fixed time scope by unified markers in control center; Thunder and lightning measured data in the geographic range of being studied (containing the moment, longitude and latitude); The geographic range lattice point of being studied (being defaulted as the grid of length of side 9km) is changed, it is divided into the lattice point of homalographic, the lattice point adjustable size;
2) the thunderbolt information on each lattice point in time step of statistics with having thunderbolt and forming a zone less than the lattice point of zone identification threshold values at interval, is rejected thunderbolt quantity less than 2 zone; With circle or the round formal description that adds outer tangent line, the several regions of being discerned is just formed the recognition result in this time step with the single zone that identifies;
3) if first time step forecasts that the result is recognition result; If the time step more than second, then the recognition result of this time step and the recognition result of a last time step are carried out relatedly, find out each regional incidence relation on two time steps;
4) to situation that the zone is associated in zone in the previous time step and the back time step, call the forecast area that corresponding one by one algorithm forecasts next time step;
Situation about 5) zone in the previous time step and the several zones in the back time step being associated is called the division Processing Algorithm and is forecast the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast;
6), call the division Processing Algorithm and forecast the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast to a plurality of zones of previous time step and a situation that the zone is associated of a back time step;
7) zone in the previous time step is not had the situation of associated region in a back time step, call the zone that regional disappearance algorithm process disappears;
8) zone in the back time step is not had the situation of associated region in previous time step, call the zone and the forecast area that algorithm forecasts next time step newly occurs;
9) calculating needs the length of circuit in the thunder and lightning forecast area, the size of thunder and lightning forecast area of supervision, calls the lightning fault new probability formula and calculates the lightning fault probability;
10) by the size of line fault probability, all circuits are sorted; Filter out the bigger circuit of lightning fault likelihood ratio, for wide area measurement analysis protection control system provides risk equipment collection, for the relevant forecast failure collection of online generation thunder and lightning and carry out safety and stability evaluation the data basis is provided.
2. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1 is characterized in that, identifies the thunderbolt zone, with the thunderbolt zone in circle or circle and the outer tangent line match recognition result thereof; To the given period, the setpoint distance threshold values is 1,2 respectively ..., 5 lattice point length of sides, the lattice point that difference of longitude and difference of latitude all is less than or equal to threshold values is grouped into same a group; To first period, be that each group of being divided in 1 o'clock is as fundamental group, and with corresponding primary circle covering with threshold values; In addition, the acquiescence threshold values is that 3 o'clock results is final subregion; Describe single final subregion for the little connected domain of trying one's best with area, adopt inner contained primary circle of this subregion and outer tangent line institute region; To other period, respectively with threshold values 2,3, the subregion result of 4,5 lattice points representes with primary circle and outer tangent line institute region, and again that each threshold values is corresponding forecast result and the comparison of actual subregion choose that forecast result optimal and divide the thunder and lightning district.
3. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1 is characterized in that, confirms the incidence relation of adjacent time step identified region; Since second time step, the zone in former and later two period recognition results relatively, if two zones have relation of inclusion or two interregional distances less than
Individual lattice point length (t is for calculating step-length, unit be minute) is associated region with two zones then; Be associated with following several kinds of situation between the zone: a regional i of previous time step is corresponding with a regional j of a back time step; A regional i of previous time step does not have the zone corresponding in a back time step; A regional j in the time step in back does not have the zone in the previous time step corresponding; The a plurality of regional i of previous time step
1, i
2...,, i
nCorresponding with a regional j of a back time step; The several regional j of a corresponding back time step of regional i of previous time step
1, j
2..., j
n
4. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1; It is characterized in that; To situation that the zone is associated in zone in the previous time step and the back time step, call the forecast area that corresponding one by one algorithm forecasts next time step; A regional i of previous time step and the regional j of a back time step are associated; Adopt the mobile trend of two-parameter linearized index smoothing method zoning i of holter and j center of gravity; Adopt this mobile trend to calculate the center position of forecast area, the shape of forecast area shape and regional j is identical.
5. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1; It is characterized in that; To the situation that several zones of a zone of previous time step and a back time step are associated, call the division Processing Algorithm and forecast the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast; A regional i of previous time step and the several regional j of a back time step
1, j
2..., j
nBe associated, provide the forecast result of two kinds of trend simultaneously: regional i is resolved into and regional j
1, j
2..., j
nCorresponding zone with the new forecast area of corresponding zone extrapolation forecast, is changed to 51% with the confidence level of forecast area; With regional j
1, j
2..., j
nBe merged into the corresponding zone with regional i, with the new forecast area of corresponding zone extrapolation forecast, the confidence level of forecast area is changed to 49%.
6. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1; It is characterized in that; To a plurality of zones of previous time step and a situation that the zone is associated of a back time step, call the division Processing Algorithm and forecast the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast; The a plurality of regional i of previous time step
1, i
2...,, i
nBe associated with a regional j of a back time step, provide the forecast result of two kinds of trend simultaneously: regional i
1, i
2...,, i
nBe merged into the corresponding zone with regional j, with the new forecast area of corresponding zone extrapolation forecast, the confidence level of forecast area is changed to 51%; Regional j is resolved into and regional i
1, i
2...,, i
nCorresponding zone with the new forecast area of corresponding zone extrapolation forecast, is changed to 49% with the confidence level of forecast area.
7. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1; It is characterized in that; Zone in the previous time step is not had the situation of associated region in a back time step, call the zone that regional disappearance algorithm process disappears; The regional i that disappears is added the working area, in 3 time steps,, then regional i is deleted from the working area, if having, then with regional i and the new forecast area of zone extrapolation forecast that is associated if there is not the zone related with regional i.
8. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1; It is characterized in that; Zone in the back time step is not had the situation of associated region in previous time step, call the zone and the forecast area that algorithm forecasts next time step newly occurs; To the situation that does not have the regional j in a zone and the back time step to be associated in the previous time step; From buffer zone, search the associated region whether regional j is arranged; If do not have; New forecast area is regional j, if having, forecasts new forecast area with zone that inquires and regional j with extrapolation.
9. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1 is characterized in that, utilizes interior zone of forecast scope and confidence level thereof, thunderbolt density calculation transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction; Calculate the length of transmission line of electricity in the forecast scope, the area of forecast scope of required supervision; Transmission line of electricity is calculated in length, thunder and lightning generation area, thunderbolt density and the forecast confidence level substitution transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction formula in the minefield, obtain the transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction.
10. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on the thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1; It is characterized in that; Size by the line fault probability; All circuits are sorted filters out the circuit of lightning fault probability greater than certain value, with the risk centralized equipment of these line informations input wide area measurement analyses protection control system.
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