CN102590651B - Measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method - Google Patents

Measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method Download PDF

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CN102590651B
CN102590651B CN201110457698.6A CN201110457698A CN102590651B CN 102590651 B CN102590651 B CN 102590651B CN 201110457698 A CN201110457698 A CN 201110457698A CN 102590651 B CN102590651 B CN 102590651B
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region
time
forecast
lightning
area
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CN201110457698.6A
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CN102590651A (en
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薛禹胜
谢云云
王昊昊
薛峰
李碧君
徐泰山
万芳茹
汪马翔
张劲中
陈家宏
王海涛
金学成
刘镭
郭玉金
姚诸香
邹根华
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国电南瑞科技股份有限公司
江西省电力公司
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Abstract

The invention discloses a measured lightning data-based transmission line failure probability evaluation method, and belongs to the technical field of power systems and automation thereof. The method comprises the following two steps of: (1) identifying a lightning occurrence range within a certain time period according to the measured lightning data of lightning occurrence time, occurrence positions, strength and the like which are measured, and predicting a lightning occurrence region in the next time step length and credibility thereof; and (2) calculating the lightning failure probability of each line by using a lightning failure probability formula according to real-time parameters of a line length in the predicted lightning occurrence region, the area of the predicted lighting occurrence region, thunderbolt density and the like. By the method, the line failure probability can be dynamically and adaptively evaluated according to changes in external weather conditions, so that the risks of lightning disasters can be early warned for the system; and the method is combined with a wide-area measurement analysis protection control system, so that the capability of the power system in withstanding the lightning disasters can be improved.

Description

Transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data

Technical field

The invention belongs to Power System and its Automation technical field, the present invention relates to more precisely a kind of appraisal procedure of transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction.

Background technology

Chinese Economy Development and can source distribution unbalanced, the electric power that Midwest sends need to could arrive the many coastal regions in east China of electricity needs by remote conveying.In electric power conveying, the increase of power transmission distance makes the safety and stability of electric system be subject to great challenge.In order to defend accidental fault to cause the electric system accident of having a power failure on a large scale, Xue Yu victory academician has proposed the defence framework of having a power failure on a large scale of space-time cooperative, and develops wide area monitoring and analyzing Protection control system (WARMAP).Yet this system for be general successive failure, its fault collection is changeless, the circuit that can not may break down along with the variation Dynamic Recognition of physical environment.The frequent a kind of high strong electromagnetic pulse phenomenon occurring of thunder and lightning nature, electrical network has because of it feature that wide area distributes, geometric scale reaches thousands of rice, be very easy to be subject to the impact of thunder and lightning, the tripping operation number of times that annual China ultra-high-tension power transmission line causes due to accumulative total accounts for the 40%-70% of total tripping operation number of times, and thunder and lightning has become the key factor that has a strong impact on electric power netting safe running.If can according to thunder and lightning, a situation arises, in assessment thunder and lightning region, dynamic self-adapting ground, the lightning fault probability of transmission line of electricity, analyzes Protection control system with wide area measurement and combines, the ability of the defence thunder and lightning disaster of raising electric system.Therefore, need the thunder and lightning of giving chapter and verse badly a situation arises the appraisal procedure of computational scheme lightning fault probability.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is: the deficiency of improving existing power failure defence framework, the fault collection of existing defence framework is become according to external environment and changed the online dynamically anticipation risk equipment collection that generates from the risk equipment collection of fixing, thereby realize the Risk-warning of system Lightning Disaster, improved the ability of electric system defence Lightning Disaster.

The present invention is based on thunder and lightning measured data, identify thunderbolt scope in each time step, association is carried out in region within the scope of thunderbolt in a plurality of time steps, the thunder and lightning occurrence scope that forecasts next time step by the lightning information extrapolation of several time steps, calculates the transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction in thunder and lightning occurrence scope.This method can overcome the past for the deficiency of lightning monitoring means, only uses the information of thunderbolt, and the region of the following thunderbolt of forecast of extrapolating, is a kind of brand-new trial to lightning forecasting, and result shows to have very strong practicality.

Specifically, the present invention takes following technical scheme to realize, and comprises the following steps:

1) in control center, by unified markers, gather within the scope of the fixed time, thunder and lightning measured data in the geographic range of studying (containing the moment, longitude and latitude), studied geographic range lattice point (being defaulted as the grid of length of side 9km) is changed, be divided into the lattice point of homalographic, lattice point size is adjustable.

2) the thunderbolt region in identification step-length preset time.To the given period, setpoint distance threshold values is 1,2 respectively ..., 5 lattice point length of sides, the lattice point that difference of longitude and difference of latitude is all less than or equal to threshold values is grouped into same a group.To the first period, using threshold values be each group of dividing for 1 o'clock as fundamental group, and cover it with corresponding primary circle.In addition, acquiescence threshold values is that the division result of 3 o'clock is final subregion.For the little connected domain of trying one's best with area, describe single final subregion, adopt this subregion inner contained primary circle and outer tangent line institute region.To other period, respectively by threshold values 2,3, the subregion result of 4,5 lattice points represents with primary circle and outer tangent line institute region, then by corresponding forecast result and the actual subregion comparison of each threshold values, and that choose forecast result optimum divided thunder and lightning district.

3), if first time step, forecast result is recognition result.If second above time step, the recognition result of this time step and the recognition result of a upper time step are carried out associatedly, find out the incidence relation in each region in two time steps.

4) to the region extrapolation forecast forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast that are associated, all forecast areas are formed to forecast result.

5) calculate the length of circuit in lightning forecasting region, the size in lightning forecasting region that needs supervision, call lightning fault new probability formula and calculate lightning fault probability.

6) by the size of line fault probability, all circuits are sorted.Filter out the circuit that line fault likelihood ratio is larger, for wide area measurement, analyze Protection control system risk equipment collection is provided.

Beneficial effect of the present invention is as follows: the present invention passes through the information of thunderbolt, the occurrence scope of identification thunder and lightning, according to the thunderbolt trend extrapolation of a plurality of time steps, forecast the thunderbolt scope of time step below, the probability of calculating circuit lightning fault within the scope of forecast, thus according to the variation dynamic self-adapting of external weather conditions assess line fault probability.This method is become the fault collection of existing defence framework according to external environment and is changed dynamically anticipation risk equipment collection of online generation from the risk equipment collection of fixing, thereby realizes the Risk-warning of system Lightning Disaster, has improved the ability of electric system defence Lightning Disaster.Because this method only need to just can be forecast thunder and lightning occurrence scope according to thunderbolt information, information acquisition is convenient, and reliability is high, has improved the ability of electric system defence Lightning Disaster.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the inventive method.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing 1, the inventive method is described in detail.

In Fig. 1, step 1 realizes in control center and gathering within the scope of the fixed time by unified markers, thunder and lightning measured data in the geographic range of studying (containing the moment, longitude and latitude), studied geographic range lattice point (being defaulted as the grid of length of side 9km) is changed, be divided into the lattice point of homalographic, lattice point size is adjustable.

In Fig. 1, step 2 realizes identification thunder and lightning occurrence scope.To the given period, first add up the thunderbolt quantity on each lattice point, setpoint distance threshold values is 1 respectively, 2 ..., 5 lattice point length of sides, the lattice point that difference of longitude and difference of latitude is all less than or equal to threshold values is grouped into same a group, rejects the group that thunderbolt quantity is less than certain certain value, and each group represented with justifying.To the first period, using threshold values be each group of dividing for 1 o'clock as fundamental group, and cover it with corresponding primary circle, in addition, acquiescence threshold values is that the division result of 3 o'clock is final subregion.For the little connected domain of trying one's best with area, describe single final subregion, adopt this subregion inner contained primary circle and outer tangent line institute region.Identified rear execution step 4.To other period, respectively by threshold values 2,3, the subregion result of 4,5 lattice points represents with primary circle and outer tangent line institute region, then by corresponding forecast result and the actual subregion comparison of each threshold values, and that choose forecast result optimum divided thunder and lightning district.After having identified, execution step 3.

In Fig. 1, step 3 realizes the incidence relation in region in adjacent two the time step recognition results of identification.Since second time step, compare the region in former and later two period recognition results, if two regions have relation of inclusion or two interregional distances to be less than individual lattice point length (t is for calculating step-length, unit be minute), is identified as associated region by two regions.Between region, be associated with following several situation: a region i of previous time step is corresponding with a region j of a rear time step; A region i of previous time step does not have region corresponding in a rear time step; A region j in a rear time step does not have the region in previous time step corresponding; A plurality of region i of previous time step 1, i 2...,, i ncorresponding with a region j of a rear time step; Several region j of the corresponding rear time step of a region i of previous time step 1, j 2..., j n.To extrapolation forecast algorithms different in different situations invocation step 4 in step 3.

In Fig. 1, step 4 realizes the extrapolation forecast forecast area of associated area, the confidence level of forecast area is forecast thunderbolt quantity.A region i of previous time step and the region j of a rear time step are associated, adopt the mobile trend of the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method zoning i of holter and j center of gravity, adopt this mobile trend to calculate the center position of forecast area, forecast area shape is identical with the shape of region j.

The region i of previous time step is not had to situation corresponding to region in a rear time step, region i is added to buffer zone, if there is associated region in 3 time step inner region i, it is extracted and the extrapolation forecast of corresponding region in buffer zone, otherwise automatically from buffer zone, delete after 3 time steps.

To the situation that does not have the region j in region and a rear time step to be associated in previous time step, from buffer zone, search the associated region that whether has region j, if do not had, new forecast area is region j, if had, with the region inquiring and region j, with the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method extrapolation of holter, forecast new forecast area.

A plurality of region i to previous time step 1, i 2...,, i nthe situation corresponding with the region j of a rear time step, forecast the forecast result of two kinds of trend: one, merger trend: a plurality of regions of previous time step are merged into a region i and the region j new forecast area of the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method extrapolation of holter forecast, the confidence level of forecast area is set to 51%; Two, cleavage tendency: if region j by a plurality of circles and outer tangent line thereof, represented, in subregion search and region i 1, i 2...,, i ncorresponding j 1, j 2..., j nif region j is represented by a circle, region j is split into and region i 1, i 2...,, i ncorresponding j 1, j 2..., j n, corresponding region is pushed away to the new forecast area of forecast with the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method of holter, the confidence level of forecast area is set to 49%.

Several region j to the corresponding rear time step of the region i of previous time step 1, j 2..., j nsituation, forecast the forecast result of two kinds of trend: one, cleavage tendency: if region i by a plurality of circles and outer tangent line thereof, represented, search and region j in subregion 1, j 2..., j ncorresponding i 1, i 2...,, i nif region i is represented by a circle, region i is split into and region j 1, j 2..., j ncorresponding i 1, i 2...,, i n, to corresponding, with the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method of holter, extrapolate respectively and forecast new forecast area, the confidence level of forecast area is set to 51%; Two, merger trend: by region j 1, j 2..., j nthe new forecast area of holter two-parameter linearized index smoothing method extrapolation forecast for the i of region that was merged into region j and a upper time, is set to 49% by the confidence level of forecast area.All forecast areas are formed to forecast result.

In Fig. 1, step 5 realizes the lightning fault probability calculating in forecast area.Calculate the length of transmission line of electricity within the scope of forecast, the area of forecast scope of required supervision, transmission line of electricity is calculated in length, thunder and lightning generation area and forecast confidence level substitution transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction formula in minefield, obtain transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction.

Circuit lightning fault new probability formula is:

P = n ( A 1 l 1 + A 2 l 2 + . . . + A n l n ) 280 S

The thunderbolt density that wherein n is last time step, the area that S is lattice point, A is hundred kilometers of lightning fault probability of annual of dissimilar shaft tower.

In Fig. 1, step 6 is embodied as wide area measurement analysis Protection control system provides risk equipment collection.Size by line fault probability, sorts to all circuits.Filter out the circuit that line fault probability is greater than k (k can artificially set), the risk equipment that these line information input wide area measurements are analyzed to Protection control system is concentrated.

Implementation result

The method adopts in the Lightning Warning system of Jiangxi.The practical operation situation of Jiangxi system of take is example, and August 13 had 4 line trippings, is respectively 7 o'clock 44 minutes months plum lines, 8: 21 flood diversion Po I lines, 9: 06 pan copper cash, 23: 51 hawk letter I lines.Because big vast Po I line does not have shaft tower information, except big vast Po I line, All other routes all can correctly forecast.

Claims (9)

1. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
1) in control center, by unified markers, gather within the scope of the fixed time, the thunder and lightning measured data containing the moment, longitude and latitude in the geographic range of studying, by studied geographic range lattice point, is divided into the lattice point of homalographic, and lattice point size is adjustable;
2) the thunderbolt information on each lattice point in time step of statistics, forms a region by the lattice point that exists thunderbolt and interval to be less than region identification threshold values, rejects the region that thunderbolt quantity is less than 2; The single region identifying is added to the formal description of outer tangent line with circle or circle, some regions of identifying just form the recognition result in this time step, concrete grammar is: to given time step, setpoint distance threshold values is 1 respectively, 2, ..., 5 lattice point length of sides, the lattice point that difference of longitude and difference of latitude is all less than or equal to threshold values is grouped into same a group; To first time step, using threshold values be each group of dividing for 1 o'clock as fundamental group, and cover it with corresponding primary circle; In addition, acquiescence threshold values is that the division result of 3 o'clock is final subregion; For the little connected domain of trying one's best with area, describe single final subregion, adopt this subregion inner contained primary circle and outer tangent line institute region; To step-length At All Other Times, respectively by threshold values 2,3, the subregion result of 4,5 lattice points represents with primary circle and outer tangent line institute region, then by corresponding forecast result and the actual subregion comparison of each threshold values, and that choose forecast result optimum divided thunder and lightning district;
3), if first time step, forecast result is recognition result; If second above time step, the recognition result of this time step and the recognition result of a upper time step are carried out associatedly, find out the incidence relation in each region in two time steps;
4), if a region in previous time step is associated with a region in a rear time step, call the forecast area that corresponding algorithm one by one forecasts next time step;
5), if the several regions in a region in previous time step and a rear time step are associated, call division Processing Algorithm and forecast the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast;
6) if a region of a plurality of regions of previous time step and a rear time step, call division Processing Algorithm forecast the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast;
7), if the region in previous time step does not have associated region in a rear time step, call the region that disappearance algorithm process in region disappears;
8), if the region in a rear time step does not have associated region in previous time step, call region and newly occur that algorithm forecasts the forecast area of next time step;
9) calculate the length of circuit in lightning forecasting region, the size in lightning forecasting region that needs supervision, call lightning fault new probability formula and calculate lightning fault probability;
10) by the size of line fault probability, all circuits are sorted; Filter out the circuit that lightning fault likelihood ratio is larger, for wide area measurement, analyze Protection control system risk equipment collection is provided, for generating online the forecast failure collection that thunder and lightning is relevant and carrying out safety and stability evaluation, provide data basis.
2. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1, is characterized in that, determines the incidence relation of adjacent time step identified region; Since second time step, compare the region in former and later two period recognition results, if two regions have relation of inclusion or two interregional distances to be less than individual lattice point length, is identified as associated region by two regions, and wherein t is for calculating step-length, and unit is minute; Between region, be associated with following several situation: a region i of previous time step is corresponding with a region j of a rear time step; A region i of previous time step does not have region corresponding in a rear time step; A region j in a rear time step does not have the region in previous time step corresponding; A plurality of region i of previous time step 1, i 2..., i ncorresponding with a region j of a rear time step; Several region j of the corresponding rear time step of a region i of previous time step 1, j 2..., j n.
3. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, to region in previous time step and a situation that region is associated in a rear time step, call the forecast area that corresponding algorithm one by one forecasts next time step; A region i of previous time step and the region j of a rear time step are associated, adopt the mobile trend of the two-parameter linearized index smoothing method zoning i of holter and j center of gravity, adopt this mobile trend to calculate the center position of forecast area, forecast area shape is identical with the shape of region j.
4. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the situation that several regions of previous time step region and a rear time step are associated, calls division Processing Algorithm and forecasts the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast; A region i of previous time step and several region j of a rear time step 1, j 2..., j nbe associated, provide the forecast result of two kinds of trend simultaneously: region i is resolved into and region j 1, j 2..., j ncorresponding region, by the new forecast area of corresponding region extrapolation forecast, is set to 51% by the confidence level of forecast area; By region j 1, j 2..., j nbe merged into the region corresponding with region i, by the new forecast area of corresponding region extrapolation forecast, the confidence level of forecast area is set to 49%.
5. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, a situation that region is associated to a plurality of regions of previous time step with a rear time step, calls division Processing Algorithm and forecasts the forecast area of next time step and the confidence level of forecast; A plurality of region i of previous time step 1, i 2..., i nbe associated with a region j of a rear time step, provide the forecast result of two kinds of trend: by region i simultaneously 1, i 2..., i nbe merged into the region corresponding with region j, by the new forecast area of corresponding region extrapolation forecast, the confidence level of forecast area is set to 51%; Region j is resolved into and region i 1, i 2..., i ncorresponding region, by the new forecast area of corresponding region extrapolation forecast, is set to 49% by the confidence level of forecast area.
6. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, region in previous time step be there is no in a rear time step to the situation of associated region, call the region that disappearance algorithm process in region disappears; The region i of disappearance is added to working area, in 3 time steps, if do not have region associated with region i, region i is deleted from working area, if had, by region i and the new forecast area of region extrapolation forecast being associated.
7. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, region in a rear time step is not had to the situation of associated region in previous time step, call region and newly occur that algorithm forecasts the forecast area of next time step; To the situation that does not have the region j in region and a rear time step to be associated in previous time step, from buffer zone, search the associated region that whether has region j, if do not had, new forecast area is region j, if had, with the region inquiring and region j, with extrapolation, forecast new forecast area.
8. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1, is characterized in that, utilizes region within the scope of forecast and confidence level thereof, thunderbolt density calculation transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction; Calculate the length of transmission line of electricity within the scope of forecast, the area of forecast scope of required supervision, transmission line of electricity is calculated in length, thunder and lightning generation area, thunderbolt density and forecast confidence level substitution transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction formula in minefield, obtain transmission line lightning stroke probability of malfunction.
9. the transmission line malfunction probability assessment method based on thunder and lightning measured data according to claim 1; it is characterized in that; by the size of line fault probability; all circuits are sorted and filter out the circuit that lightning fault probability is greater than certain value, and the risk equipment that these line information input wide area measurements are analyzed to Protection control system is concentrated.
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