CN108229735B - Drainage basin withering prediction method and system based on climate factors - Google Patents
Drainage basin withering prediction method and system based on climate factors Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a basin withering prediction method and system based on climate factors, wherein the method comprises the following steps: establishing a plurality of climate factor data and basin water vapor flux remote correlation models and basin air temperature remote correlation models; establishing a model related to river basin water vapor flux, air temperature, river basin evaporation and precipitation; forecasting to obtain the watershed water vapor flux and the watershed air temperature by combining the watershed water vapor flux remote correlation model and the watershed air temperature remote correlation model; and predicting the rich and dry state of the drainage basin according to the water vapor flux and the air temperature of the drainage basin, in combination with a drainage basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model, in combination with drainage basin landform and underlying surface information. The method can effectively improve the accuracy of time prediction and the accuracy of runoff prediction, further can improve the accuracy of predicting the long-term withered condition in the drainage basin, and realizes more reasonable and effective water resource planning and utilization.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, in particular to a basin withering forecasting method and system based on climate factors.
Background
The river basin withering condition is the flow rate of the river flow path in the river basin, has important influence on national economy and production and life of people, and can provide important guidance for production and life by predicting the river basin withering condition.
At present, the main method for predicting the long-term rich-withered condition in the drainage basin is to establish a periodic model according to historical data of the rich-withered condition in the drainage basin, and predict the rich-withered condition in the drainage basin within a period of time in the future according to the periodic model. However, the periodic model only counts the appearance of the river basin withering condition, does not reveal the decisive factor of the river basin withering, and has a large error in two aspects: one is the error of the period, for example, the period of a certain period model is 3 to 8 years, and if the 3-year rich water year is passed, it is difficult to determine whether the next year is a dry year or a rich water year; secondly, the error of the runoff quantity is large, and a large error exists when the periodic model estimates the runoff quantity.
In addition, the river basin withering condition is determined by evaporation, precipitation, river basin landform and underlying surface conditions in the river basin, and although the prediction of the river basin withering condition in a short term by the measured values of the variables is a mature technology at present, the prediction of the river basin withering condition in a long term by using the method has certain difficulty and needs to be solved because future evaporation and precipitation data cannot be directly measured.
Disclosure of Invention
The present invention is directed to solving, at least to some extent, one of the technical problems in the related art.
Therefore, one purpose of the invention is to provide a drainage basin withering prediction method based on climate factors, which can effectively improve the accuracy of time prediction and the accuracy of runoff prediction, and further can improve the accuracy of predicting long-term withering conditions in a drainage basin, thereby realizing more reasonable and effective water resource planning and utilization.
The invention also aims to provide a river basin withering prediction system based on the climate factors.
In order to achieve the above object, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting river basin withering based on climate factors, including the following steps: establishing a plurality of climate factor data and basin water vapor flux remote correlation models according to a plurality of climate factor data including ocean surface temperature data and basin water vapor flux data; establishing a plurality of climate factor data and basin air temperature remote correlation models according to the plurality of climate factor data including the ocean surface temperature data and the basin air temperature data; establishing a basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model according to the basin water vapor flux data, the basin air temperature data and basin evaporation data and basin precipitation data; forecasting to obtain the drainage basin water vapor flux according to a plurality of climate factor data in a plurality of preset times and by combining the climate factor data with a drainage basin water vapor flux remote correlation model; forecasting to obtain the temperature of the drainage basin according to the plurality of climate factor data in the preset time and by combining the plurality of climate factor data and the drainage basin temperature remote correlation model; and predicting to obtain the river basin evaporation and precipitation according to the river basin water vapor flux and the river basin air temperature and by combining the river basin water vapor flux and the river basin air temperature with a river basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model, and predicting to obtain the river basin withering condition according to the river basin evaporation and precipitation and by combining the river basin landform and underlying surface information.
According to the method for predicting the river basin withering based on the climate factors, the future evaporation and precipitation of the river basin can be predicted through the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors, the river basin landform and the underlying surface condition are combined, the long-term withering condition in the river basin can be predicted, and the evaporation, precipitation and runoff conditions in different areas in the river basin can be accurately obtained, so that the accuracy of time prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of runoff prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of predicting the long-term withering condition in the river basin can be improved, and more reasonable and effective water resource planning and utilization can be realized.
In addition, the river basin withering prediction method based on the climate factors according to the above embodiment of the present invention may further have the following additional technical features:
further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model for remote correlation between the plurality of climate factor data and the watershed water vapor flux is:
wherein Q isv(loc, t) is the magnitude and direction of the water vapor flux at a certain location loc at time t, SST: (i) Is tiOcean surface temperature at time, X (t)i) Is tiIntensity of a plurality of climate factors at a time, X being a plurality of climate factors, SST: (i) And X (t)i) For the ocean surface temperature at multiple times and the intensity of multiple climate factors,
and (3) carrying out a model of remote correlation between the ocean surface temperature and the long-term water vapor flux in the basin and a plurality of climate factors.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model relating the plurality of climate factor data and the temperature and the altitude of the drainage basin is:
T(loc,t)＝fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,i)，
where T (loc, T) is the air temperature at a certain location loc at time T, fTAnd the ocean surface temperature and the plurality of climate factors are used as a model related to the long-term temperature and the remote temperature in the basin.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model of the watershed water vapor flux and air temperature related to the watershed evaporation and precipitation is:
E＝fE(Qv,T)，
P＝fP(Qv,T)，
wherein E is evaporation, P is precipitation, fEFor the basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation correlation model, fPAnd the water vapor flux, the air temperature and the drainage basin precipitation are correlated models.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the predicting of evaporation and precipitation of the watershed further comprises:
and taking the predicted value of the water vapor flux of the drainage basin and the predicted value of the air temperature of the drainage basin as independent variables, inputting the relevant models of the water vapor flux, the air temperature and the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin to obtain the predicted values of the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin within a preset time, and obtaining the rich and dry condition of the drainage basin according to the predicted values of the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin.
In order to achieve the above object, in another embodiment of the present invention, a river basin withering prediction system based on climate factors is provided, including: the first modeling module is used for establishing a plurality of climate factor data and basin water vapor flux remote correlation models according to a plurality of climate factor data including ocean surface temperature data and basin water vapor flux data; the second modeling module is used for establishing a plurality of climate factor data and basin air temperature remote correlation models according to the plurality of climate factor data including the ocean surface temperature data and the basin air temperature data; the third modeling module is used for establishing a basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation related model according to the basin water vapor flux data, the basin air temperature data and basin evaporation data and basin precipitation data; the water vapor flux prediction module is used for predicting to obtain the river basin water vapor flux according to a plurality of climate factor data in a plurality of preset times and by combining the plurality of climate factor data and the river basin water vapor flux remote correlation model; the air temperature prediction module is used for predicting to obtain the temperature of the drainage basin according to the plurality of climate factor data in the preset time and by combining the plurality of climate factor data and the drainage basin air temperature remote correlation model; and the watershed plump prediction module is used for predicting to obtain watershed evaporation and precipitation according to the watershed water vapor flux and the watershed air temperature and by combining the watershed water vapor flux and the watershed evaporation and precipitation correlation model, and predicting to obtain the watershed plump condition according to the watershed evaporation and precipitation and by combining the watershed landform information and underlying surface information.
According to the system for predicting the river basin withering based on the climate factors, the future evaporation and precipitation of the river basin can be predicted through the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors, and the evaporation, precipitation and runoff conditions of different areas in the river basin can be accurately obtained by predicting the long-term withering condition of the river basin by combining the landform and underlying surface conditions of the river basin, so that the accuracy of time prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of runoff prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of predicting the long-term withering condition of the river basin can be further improved, and more reasonable and effective water resource planning and utilization can be realized.
In addition, the river basin withering prediction system based on the climate factor according to the above embodiment of the present invention may further have the following additional technical features:
further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model for remote correlation between the plurality of climate factor data and the watershed water vapor flux is:
wherein Q isv(loc, t) is the magnitude and direction of the water vapor flux at a certain location loc at time t, SST (t)i) Is tiOcean surface temperature at time, X (t)i) Is tiIntensity of a plurality of climate factors at a time, X being a plurality of climate factors, SST (t)i) And X (t)i) For the ocean surface temperature at multiple times and the intensity of multiple climate factors,
and (3) carrying out a model of remote correlation between the ocean surface temperature and the long-term water vapor flux in the basin and a plurality of climate factors.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model relating the plurality of climate factor data and the temperature and the altitude of the drainage basin is:
T(loc,t)＝fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti)，
wherein T (loc, T) is the air temperature at a certain location loc at time T,Tand the ocean surface temperature and the plurality of climate factors are used as a model related to the long-term temperature and the remote temperature in the basin.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model of the watershed water vapor flux and air temperature related to the watershed evaporation and precipitation is:
E＝fE(Qv,)，
P＝fP(Qv,)，
wherein E is evaporation, P is precipitation, fEFor the basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation correlation model, fPAnd the water vapor flux, the air temperature and the drainage basin precipitation are correlated models.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the watershed rich-withering prediction module is further configured to input a model relating to the watershed water vapor flux, the temperature, and the watershed evaporation and precipitation as arguments, and obtain predicted values of the watershed evaporation and precipitation within a preset time, so as to obtain the watershed rich-withering condition according to the predicted values of the watershed evaporation and precipitation.
Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and, in part, will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.
Drawings
The foregoing and/or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily appreciated from the following description of the embodiments, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of which:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting river basin withering based on climate factors according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting river basin withering based on climate factors according to an embodiment of the present invention
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a watershed abundant prediction system based on a climate factor according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to embodiments of the present invention, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings, wherein like or similar reference numerals refer to the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar function throughout. The embodiments described below with reference to the drawings are illustrative and intended to be illustrative of the invention and are not to be construed as limiting the invention.
The method and the system for predicting the river basin withering based on the climate factors provided by the embodiment of the invention are described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and firstly, the method for predicting the river basin withering based on the climate factors provided by the embodiment of the invention is described with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a watershed abundant drought prediction method based on a climate factor according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for predicting the river basin withering based on the climate factors comprises the following steps:
in step S101, a model of remote correlation between climate factor data and watershed water vapor flux is established according to climate factor data and watershed water vapor flux data including ocean surface temperature data.
It is understood that the plurality of climate factor data may be solar black sub-intensity, air pressure, etc. The embodiment of the invention can establish a model for remotely correlating the ocean surface temperature, the plurality of climate factors and the long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin based on the existing ocean surface temperature data, the plurality of climate factor data and the drainage basin water vapor flux data.
In particular, the surface temperature of the ocean has a certain influence on the climate in a direct way that it can influence the amount and temperature of water vapor produced, and thus the water vapor flux and air temperature, and thus the evaporation and precipitation, for example, most typically represented by the phenomenon of el nino (lanina), and thus the evaporation and precipitation can be predicted from the surface temperature of the ocean for a period of time in the future. In addition, other climate factors, such as solar black seed intensity, barometric pressure, etc., also have some effect on the climate, and these variables may also be taken into account in the model that predicts evaporation and precipitation over a future period of time. The prediction of evaporation and precipitation, among other things, will be explained in more detail below.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model for remote correlation between the plurality of climate factor data and the watershed water vapor flux is:
wherein Q isv(loc, t) is the magnitude and direction of the water vapor flux at a certain location loc at time t, SST (t)i) Is tiOcean surface temperature at time, X (t)i) Is tiIntensity of a plurality of climate factors at a time, X being a plurality of climate factors, SST (t)i) And X (t)i) For the ocean surface temperature at multiple times and the intensity of multiple climate factors,
the model is a model for remote correlation of ocean surface temperature, a plurality of climate factors and long-term water vapor flux in a drainage basin.
Specifically, in the embodiment of the present invention, a model relating ocean surface temperature and a plurality of climate factors to long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin may be established through SVD (Singular value decomposition) analysis or regression analysis, and by observing the model relating ocean surface temperature and a plurality of climate factors to long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin, it is found that the influence of ocean surface temperature and some climate factors in some ocean areas on water vapor flux at loc is significant, and the model relating ocean surface temperature and other climate factors to long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin may be appropriately simplified according to the difference of the research drainage basin:
wherein SSTloc(ti) Sea surface temperature, X, representing sea area with a significant effect on water vapor flux at locloc(ti) Indicating the strength of a number of climate factors that have a significant effect on the water vapor flux at loc,
and (3) a model for remotely correlating the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors at loc with the long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin is shown. According to the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors and the model related to long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin, the ocean surface temperature of the sea area influencing the water vapor flux at a certain position of the drainage basin and a plurality of climates influencing the water vapor flux at the position can be obtainedThe intensity of the factor is a value for what the water vapour flux is after a certain time has elapsed.
In step S102, a model relating a plurality of climate factor data and a basin air temperature remote is created based on a plurality of climate factor data including ocean surface temperature data and basin air temperature data.
That is to say, the embodiment of the invention can establish the correlation model of the ocean surface temperature, the plurality of climate factors and the long-term temperature and remote temperature in the drainage basin based on the existing ocean surface temperature data, the plurality of climate factor data and the drainage basin temperature data.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present invention, the plurality of climate factor data and the model relating the temperature and the remote of the drainage basin are:
T(loc,t)＝fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti)，
where T (loc, T) is the air temperature at a certain location loc at time T, fTThe model is a model of correlation between the ocean surface temperature and a plurality of climate factors and long-term temperature and remote in the basin.
Specifically, the embodiment of the invention can establish a model relating the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors with the long-term temperature and remote in the basin through SVD analysis or regression analysis, and find that the influence of the ocean surface temperature and some climate factors of part of the ocean areas on the air temperature at the loc position is more obvious by observing the model relating the ocean surface temperature and a plurality of climate factors with the long-term temperature and remote in the basin, and can properly simplify the model relating the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors with the long-term temperature and remote in the basin according to the difference of the research basin:
T(loc,t)＝fT,loc(SSTloc(ti),Xloc(ti),ti)，
wherein SSTloc(ti) Sea surface temperature, X, representing sea area having a significant effect on air temperature at locloc(ti) Intensity, f, of other climate factors which have a more significant effect on the air temperature at locT,locAnd the model represents the correlation between the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors at the loc and the long-term temperature and remote in the basin. According to the seaThe model of correlation between the surface temperature and the plurality of climate factors and the long-term temperature and the remote in the basin can obtain the value of the temperature at a certain position after a certain time when the ocean surface temperature of the sea area influencing the temperature at the certain position of the basin and the intensity of the plurality of climate factors influencing the temperature at the certain position are certain values.
In step S103, a basin water vapor flux, temperature, basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model is established according to the basin water vapor flux data, the basin temperature data, the basin evaporation data and the basin precipitation data.
That is to say, the embodiment of the invention can establish the model related to the steam flux, the air temperature, the evaporation data of the drainage basin and the precipitation data of the drainage basin based on the existing drainage basin steam flux data, the drainage basin air temperature data, the drainage basin evaporation data and the drainage basin precipitation data.
Optionally, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model relating the watershed water vapor flux and air temperature to the watershed evaporation and precipitation is:
E＝fE(Qv,T)，
P＝fP(Qv,T)，
wherein E is evaporation, P is precipitation, fEIs a model related to the steam flux, air temperature and basin evaporation in the basin fPThe model is a model related to the river basin water vapor flux, the air temperature and the river basin precipitation.
Specifically, the embodiment of the invention can establish the model of the river basin water vapor flux, the air temperature, the river basin evaporation and the precipitation through regression analysis. According to the model related to the steam flux, the air temperature and the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin, when the steam flux and the air temperature at a certain position of the drainage basin are certain values, the values of the evaporation and precipitation at the position can be obtained.
In step S104, the watershed water vapor flux is predicted according to the plurality of climate factor data within the plurality of preset times and by combining the plurality of climate factor data and the watershed water vapor flux remote correlation model.
It can be understood that the ocean surface temperature and the plurality of climate factors in the current period and the previous period can be used as independent variables, and the ocean surface temperature and the plurality of climate factors are input into the model which is remotely related to the long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin, so that the predicted value of the water vapor flux in the drainage basin in the future period can be obtained.
Specifically, the method and the device can predict the long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin based on the existing ocean surface temperature data and other climate factor data, and the long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin is predicted by combining the ocean surface temperature data and other climate factor data with the model relating the ocean surface temperature data and other climate factor data with the long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin.
In step S105, the temperature of the drainage basin is predicted according to the plurality of climate factor data within the plurality of preset times and by combining the plurality of climate factor data and the drainage basin temperature remote correlation model.
It can be understood that, in the embodiment of the present invention, the ocean surface temperature and the data of the plurality of climate factors in the current and previous periods of time are used as independent variables, and the ocean surface temperature and the data of the plurality of climate factors and the long-term temperature remote correlation model in the basin are input to obtain the predicted value of the temperature in the basin in the future period of time.
Specifically, the embodiment of the invention can predict the long-term air temperature in the drainage basin based on the existing ocean surface temperature data and a plurality of climate factor data, and the long-term air temperature in the drainage basin is predicted based on the existing ocean surface temperature data and a plurality of climate factor data and by combining the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors and the long-term air temperature remote correlation model in the drainage basin.
In step S106, according to the water vapor flux and the air temperature of the drainage basin and the relevant models of the water vapor flux and the air temperature of the drainage basin and evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin, the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin are obtained through prediction, and according to the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin and the landform and underlying surface information of the drainage basin, the abundant and withered condition of the drainage basin is obtained through prediction.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the predicting evaporation and precipitation of the watershed further comprises: and (3) taking the predicted value of the water vapor flux of the drainage basin and the predicted value of the air temperature of the drainage basin as independent variables, inputting the water vapor flux and the air temperature of the drainage basin and the drainage basin evaporation and precipitation related models to obtain the predicted values of the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin within a preset time, and obtaining the rich and withered condition of the drainage basin according to the predicted values of the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin.
Specifically, the embodiment of the invention can predict long-term evaporation and precipitation in the drainage basin based on the predicted long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin and the predicted long-term air temperature in the drainage basin, and predict long-term evaporation and precipitation in the drainage basin based on the predicted long-term water vapor flux and predicted air temperature in the drainage basin and the correlation model of the water vapor flux and predicted air temperature in the drainage basin and the evaporation and precipitation in the drainage basin, and predict long-term withering condition in the drainage basin based on the predicted long-term evaporation and precipitation in the drainage basin and the landform and underlying surface condition of the drainage basin.
In an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 2, the method for predicting long-term withering in a drainage basin based on climate factors such as sea temperature includes the following steps:
step S1, establishing a model of correlation between ocean surface temperature and other climate factors and long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin;
step S2, establishing a model of correlation between the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors and the long-term temperature and remote temperature in the basin;
step S3, establishing a basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model;
step S4, predicting long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin based on the existing ocean surface temperature data and other climate factor data;
step S5, predicting the long-term air temperature in the basin based on the existing ocean surface temperature data and other climate factor data;
step S6, predicting long-term evaporation and precipitation in the drainage basin based on the predicted long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin and the predicted long-term air temperature in the drainage basin;
and step S7, predicting the long-term rich and withered condition in the drainage basin based on the predicted long-term evaporation and precipitation in the drainage basin, the drainage basin landform and the underlying surface condition.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention can utilize ocean surface temperature and other climate factors as model drive for predicting the long-term withered condition in the drainage basin, improve the accuracy of time prediction, improve the accuracy of runoff prediction, accurately know the evaporation, precipitation and runoff conditions of different areas in the drainage basin, provide more reference data for water resource planning and utilization, and further more reasonably and effectively plan and utilize water resources.
According to the method for predicting the river basin withering based on the climate factors, provided by the embodiment of the invention, future evaporation and precipitation of the river basin can be predicted through the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors, and the evaporation, precipitation and runoff conditions of different areas in the river basin can be accurately obtained by predicting the long-term withering condition of the river basin by combining the landform and underlying surface conditions of the river basin, so that the accuracy of time prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of runoff prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of prediction of the long-term withering condition of the river basin can be further improved, and more reasonable and effective water resource planning and utilization can be realized.
Next, a raining and withering forecasting system for a drainage basin based on a climate factor according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a watershed abundant drought prediction system based on a climate factor according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 3, the system 10 for predicting river basin withering based on climate factors includes: the system comprises a first modeling module 100, a second modeling module 200, a third modeling module 300, a water vapor flux prediction module 400, an air temperature prediction module 500, and a watershed rich prediction module 600.
The first modeling module 100 is configured to establish a model of remote correlation between a plurality of climate factor data and watershed water vapor flux according to a plurality of climate factor data including ocean surface temperature data and watershed water vapor flux data. The second modeling module 200 is configured to build a model of correlation between the plurality of climate factor data and the temperature swing of the basin according to the plurality of climate factor data and the temperature data of the basin including the ocean surface temperature data. The third modeling module 300 is used for establishing a basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model according to basin water vapor flux data, basin air temperature data, basin evaporation data and basin precipitation data. The water vapor flux prediction module 400 is configured to predict the water vapor flux of the drainage basin according to a plurality of climate factor data in a plurality of preset times and by combining the plurality of climate factor data with the drainage basin water vapor flux remote correlation model. The air temperature prediction module 500 is configured to predict the temperature of the drainage basin according to a plurality of climate factor data within a plurality of preset times and by combining the plurality of climate factor data with the drainage basin air temperature remote correlation model. The watershed plump prediction module 600 is used for predicting to obtain watershed evaporation and precipitation according to the watershed water vapor flux and the watershed air temperature and by combining the watershed water vapor flux and the air temperature with a watershed evaporation and precipitation correlation model, and predicting to obtain the watershed plump condition according to the watershed evaporation and precipitation and by combining the watershed landform and underlying surface information. The system 10 of the embodiment of the invention can predict future evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin through the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors, and predict the long-term withering condition in the drainage basin by combining the drainage basin landform and the underlying surface condition, thereby effectively improving the accuracy of predicting the river basin withering.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the model for remote correlation between the plurality of climate factor data and the watershed water vapor flux is:
wherein Q isv(loc, t) is the magnitude and direction of the water vapor flux at a certain location loc at time t, SST (t)i) Is tiOcean surface temperature at time, X (t)i) Is tiIntensity of a plurality of climate factors at a time, X being a plurality of climate factors, SST (t)i) And X (t)i) For the ocean surface temperature at multiple times and the intensity of multiple climate factors,
the model is a model for remote correlation of ocean surface temperature, a plurality of climate factors and long-term water vapor flux in a drainage basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the present invention, the plurality of climate factor data and the model for correlating the temperature and the altitude of the drainage basin are as follows:
T(loc,t)＝fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti)，
where T (loc, T) is the air temperature at a certain location loc at time T, fTThe model is a model of correlation between the ocean surface temperature and a plurality of climate factors and long-term temperature and remote in the basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the present invention, the model of the watershed water vapor flux and air temperature in relation to the watershed evaporation and precipitation is:
E＝fE(Qv,T)，
P＝fP(Qv,T)，
wherein E is evaporation, P is precipitation, fEIs a model related to the steam flux, air temperature and basin evaporation in the basin fPThe model is a model related to the river basin water vapor flux, the air temperature and the river basin precipitation.
Further, in an embodiment of the present invention, the watershed rich-withering prediction module 600 is further configured to input a model relating to the watershed water vapor flux, the watershed air temperature, the watershed evaporation and precipitation, and the predicted value of the watershed evaporation and precipitation within a preset time, as arguments, so as to obtain the watershed rich-withering condition according to the predicted values of the watershed evaporation and precipitation.
It should be noted that the foregoing explanation on the embodiment of the method for predicting river basin withering based on climate factors is also applicable to the system for predicting river basin withering based on climate factors of this embodiment, and details are not described here.
According to the river basin withering prediction system based on the climate factors, the future evaporation and precipitation of the river basin can be predicted through the ocean surface temperature and other climate factors, and the evaporation, precipitation and runoff conditions of different areas in the river basin can be accurately obtained by predicting the long-term withering condition of the river basin by combining the landform and underlying surface conditions of the river basin, so that the accuracy of time prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of runoff prediction can be effectively improved, the accuracy of predicting the long-term withering condition of the river basin can be further improved, and more reasonable and effective water resource planning and utilization can be realized.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that the terms "central," "longitudinal," "lateral," "length," "width," "thickness," "upper," "lower," "front," "rear," "left," "right," "vertical," "horizontal," "top," "bottom," "inner," "outer," "clockwise," "counterclockwise," "axial," "radial," "circumferential," and the like are used in the orientations and positional relationships indicated in the drawings for convenience in describing the invention and to simplify the description, and are not intended to indicate or imply that the referenced devices or elements must have a particular orientation, be constructed and operated in a particular orientation, and are therefore not to be considered limiting of the invention.
Furthermore, the terms "first", "second" and "first" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one such feature. In the description of the present invention, "a plurality" means at least two, e.g., two, three, etc., unless specifically limited otherwise.
In the present invention, unless otherwise expressly stated or limited, the terms "mounted," "connected," "secured," and the like are to be construed broadly and can, for example, be fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally formed; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be directly connected or indirectly connected through intervening media, or they may be connected internally or in any other suitable relationship, unless expressly stated otherwise. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood by those skilled in the art according to specific situations.
In the present invention, unless otherwise expressly stated or limited, the first feature "on" or "under" the second feature may be directly contacting the first and second features or indirectly contacting the first and second features through an intermediate. Also, a first feature "on," "over," and "above" a second feature may be directly or diagonally above the second feature, or may simply indicate that the first feature is at a higher level than the second feature. A first feature being "under," "below," and "beneath" a second feature may be directly under or obliquely under the first feature, or may simply mean that the first feature is at a lesser elevation than the second feature.
In the description herein, references to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples," etc., mean that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the invention. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above are not necessarily intended to refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples. Furthermore, various embodiments or examples and features of different embodiments or examples described in this specification can be combined and combined by one skilled in the art without contradiction.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention, and that variations, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made to the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. A basin withering prediction method based on climate factors is characterized by comprising the following steps:
according to a plurality of climate factor data including ocean surface temperature data and basin water vapor flux data, establishing a model for remote correlation of the climate factor data and the basin water vapor flux, wherein the model for remote correlation of the climate factor data and the basin water vapor flux is as follows:
wherein Q isv(loc, t) is the magnitude and direction of the water vapor flux at a certain location loc at time t, SST (t)i) Is tiOcean surface temperature at time, X (t)i) Is tiThe intensity of the plurality of climate factors at the time, X being the plurality of climate factors,
a model for remotely correlating the ocean surface temperature and the plurality of climate factors with long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin is obtained;
according to the plurality of climate factor data including the ocean surface temperature data and the basin air temperature data, a model related to the climate factor data and the basin air temperature and the temperature is established, wherein the model related to the climate factor data and the basin air temperature and the temperature is as follows: t (loc, T) ═ fT(SST(ti)，X(ti)，loc，ti) Where T (loc, T) is the air temperature at a certain location loc at time T, fTThe ocean surface temperature and a plurality of climate factors are used as models related to long-term temperature and remote temperature in the basin;
establishing a basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model according to the basin water vapor flux data, the basin air temperature data and basin evaporation data and the basin precipitation data, wherein the basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model is as follows: e ═ fE(Qv，T)，P＝fP(QvT), wherein E is evaporation, P is precipitation, f)EFor the basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation correlation model, fPThe model is a model related to the river basin water vapor flux, the air temperature and the river basin precipitation;
forecasting to obtain the drainage basin water vapor flux according to a plurality of climate factor data in a plurality of preset times and by combining the climate factor data and a drainage basin water vapor flux remote correlation model;
forecasting to obtain the temperature of the drainage basin according to the plurality of climate factor data in the preset time and by combining the climate factor data with the drainage basin temperature remote correlation model; and
and predicting to obtain the evaporation capacity and the precipitation capacity of the drainage basin according to the water vapor flux and the air temperature of the drainage basin and by combining the water vapor flux and the air temperature of the drainage basin and a drainage basin evaporation and precipitation correlation model, and predicting to obtain the rich and withered condition of the drainage basin according to the evaporation capacity and the precipitation capacity of the drainage basin and by combining the landform and underlying surface information of the drainage basin.
2. The method for predicting the flooding basin withering based on the climate factors as claimed in claim 1, wherein the predicting obtains the evaporation capacity and the precipitation capacity of the flooding basin, further comprising:
and taking the predicted value of the water vapor flux of the drainage basin and the predicted value of the air temperature of the drainage basin as independent variables, inputting the relevant models of the water vapor flux, the air temperature and the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin to obtain the predicted values of the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin within a preset time, and obtaining the rich and dry condition of the drainage basin according to the predicted values of the evaporation and precipitation of the drainage basin.
3. A system for predicting river basin withering based on climate factors is characterized by comprising:
the first modeling module is used for establishing a model related to climate factor data and watershed water vapor flux telemetering according to a plurality of climate factor data including ocean surface temperature data and watershed water vapor flux data, and the model related to climate factor data and watershed water vapor flux telemetering is as follows:
wherein Q isv(loc, t) is the magnitude and direction of the water vapor flux at a certain location loc at time t, SST (t)i) Is tiOcean surface temperature at time, X (t)i) Is tiThe intensity of the plurality of climate factors at the time, X being the plurality of climate factors,
a model for remotely correlating the ocean surface temperature and the plurality of climate factors with long-term water vapor flux in the drainage basin is obtained;
the second modeling module is used for establishing a model related to the climate factor data and the basin air temperature far according to the climate factor data including the ocean surface temperature data and the basin air temperature data, and the model related to the climate factor data and the basin air temperature far is as follows: t (loc, T) ═ fT(SST(ti)，X(ti)，loc，ti) Where T (loc, T) is the air temperature at a certain location loc at time T, fTThe ocean surface temperature and a plurality of climate factors are used as models related to long-term temperature and remote temperature in the basin;
the third modeling module is used for establishing a basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation related model according to the basin water vapor flux data, the basin air temperature data, the basin evaporation data and the basin precipitation data, wherein the basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation and precipitation related model is as follows: e ═ fE(Qv，T)，P＝fP(QvT), wherein E is evaporation, P is precipitation, f)EFor the basin water vapor flux, air temperature and basin evaporation correlation model, fPThe model is a model related to the river basin water vapor flux, the air temperature and the river basin precipitation;
the water vapor flux prediction module is used for predicting to obtain the river basin water vapor flux according to a plurality of climate factor data in a plurality of preset times and by combining the climate factor data and the river basin water vapor flux remote correlation model;
the air temperature prediction module is used for predicting to obtain the temperature of the drainage basin according to the plurality of climate factor data in the preset time and by combining the climate factor data with the drainage basin air temperature remote correlation model; and
and the watershed plump prediction module is used for predicting to obtain the watershed evaporation capacity and the rainfall according to the watershed water vapor flux and the watershed air temperature and by combining the watershed water vapor flux and the watershed evaporation and rainfall correlation model, and predicting to obtain the watershed plump condition according to the watershed evaporation capacity and the rainfall and by combining the watershed landform and underlying surface information.
4. The watershed rich-withering prediction system based on the climate factors as claimed in claim 3, wherein the watershed rich-withering prediction module is further configured to input the watershed water vapor flux and the predicted value of the watershed air temperature as independent variables, and input the model related to the watershed water vapor flux and the air temperature and the watershed evaporation and precipitation to obtain the predicted values of the watershed evaporation and precipitation within a preset time, so as to obtain the watershed rich-withering condition according to the predicted values of the watershed evaporation and precipitation.
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