CN108229735A - The rich withered Forecasting Methodology in basin and system based on climatic factor - Google Patents
The rich withered Forecasting Methodology in basin and system based on climatic factor Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of rich withered Forecasting Methodology in basin based on climatic factor and system, wherein, method includes：Establish multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux and the distant correlation model of basin temperature；Establish basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model；The distant correlation model of water basin combination vapour flux and the distant correlation model of basin temperature, prediction obtain basin water vapor flux and basin temperature；According to basin water vapor flux and basin temperature, and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model are combined, and according to basin evaporation and precipitation, and combine basin topography and underlying surface information, prediction obtains the rich withered situation in basin.This method can effectively improve the accuracy of time prediction, effectively improve the accuracy of Runoff forestry, and then can improve the precision of long-term rich withered situation in prediction basin, realize that more rationally effective water resources utilize.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Hydrological Forecasting Technique field, the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in more particularly to a kind of basin based on climatic factor
And system.
Background technology
The rich withered situation in basin refers to the size situation of river ethic in basin, the production to national economy and the people
Life has important influence, and the prediction rich withered situation in basin can provide important directive function for production and living.
At present, the main method for predicting long-term rich withered situation in basin is established according to the historical data of the rich withered situation in basin
Periodic model is predicted according to periodic model withered situation rich to the basin in following a period of time.However, periodic model is
The presentation of the rich withered situation of watershed is counted, and there is no disclose the rich withered deciding factor in basin, and periodic model exists
There are large errors for two aspects：First, the error in period, for example, its period of certain periodic model is 3 to 8 years, if having undergone 3
High flow year in year, then next year is low flow year or high flow year to be difficult to determine；Second is that the error of run-off size, periodic model estimation diameter
There are large errors during uninterrupted.
In addition, the rich withered situation in basin is determined by evaporation, precipitation, basin topography and underlying surface situation in basin, although above-mentioned
The rich withered situation in basin of the measured value prediction of variable in a short time is currently the technology of a comparative maturity, but due to following steaming
Hair and precipitation data can not be measured directly, so predicting that there are certain difficulties for long-term rich withered situation in basin, need with this method
It solves.
Invention content
The present invention is directed to solve at least some of the technical problems in related technologies.
For this purpose, an object of the present invention is to provide a kind of rich withered Forecasting Methodology in basin based on climatic factor, the party
Method can effectively improve the accuracy of time prediction, effectively improve the accuracy of Runoff forestry, and then can improve pre- flow measurement
The precision of long-term rich withered situation in domain realizes that more rationally effective water resources utilize.
It is another object of the present invention to propose a kind of rich withered forecasting system in basin based on climatic factor.
In order to achieve the above objectives, one aspect of the present invention embodiment proposes a kind of rich withered prediction in basin based on climatic factor
Method includes the following steps：Led to according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data with basin steam
Data are measured, establish multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux；According to described including marine surface temperature
Multiple climatic factor data and basin temperature record including data, it is distant related to basin temperature to establish multiple climatic factor data
Model；Data, basin precipitation data are evaporated according to the basin steam flux data, the basin temperature record and basin, built
Vertical basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model；According to multiple climatic factor numbers in multiple preset times
According to, and the multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux are combined, prediction obtains basin water vapor flux；Root
According to multiple climatic factor data in the multiple preset time, and it is distant related to basin temperature to combine multiple climatic factor data
Model, prediction obtain basin temperature；According to the basin water vapor flux and basin temperature, and with reference to the basin water vapor flux,
The evaporation of temperature and basin, precipitation correlation model, prediction obtain basin evaporation and precipitation, and according to basin evaporation and precipitation,
And basin topography and underlying surface information are combined, prediction obtains the rich withered situation in basin.
The rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin based on climatic factor of the embodiment of the present invention, can by marine surface temperature and its
The evaporation in his climatic factor prediction basin future and precipitation in conjunction with basin topography and underlying surface situation, are predicted long-term in basin
Rich withered situation can accurately know the evaporation of different zones in basin, precipitation, runoff situation, during so as to effectively improve
Between the accuracy predicted, effectively improve the accuracy of Runoff forestry, and then long-term rich withered situation in prediction basin can be improved
Precision, realize that more rationally effective water resources utilize.
In addition, the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin according to the above embodiment of the present invention based on climatic factor can also have with
Under additional technical characteristic：
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the multiple climatic factor data and basin water vapor flux are distant
Correlation model is：
Wherein, Qv(loc, t) be at a certain position loc, the size and Orientation of t moment water vapor flux, SST (i) it is tiWhen
The marine surface temperature at quarter, X (ti) it is tiThe intensity of multiple climatic factors at moment, X be multiple climatic factors, SST (i) and X
(ti) for multiple moment marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors intensity,For the marine surface temperature and multiple gas
Wait the factor and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the multiple climatic factor data are distant related to basin temperature
Model is：
T (loc, t)=fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,i),
Wherein, T (loc, t) is the f at a certain position loc, the temperature of t momentTFor the marine surface temperature and multiple
Climatic factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation
Correlation model is：
E=fE(Qv, T),
P=fP(Qv, T),
Wherein, E is evaporation, and P is precipitation, fECorrelation model, f are evaporated for the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basinPFor
The basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin precipitation correlation model.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the prediction obtains basin evaporation and precipitation, further wraps
It includes：
Using the predicted value of the basin water vapor flux and the predicted value of the basin temperature as independent variable, the stream is inputted
Domain water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model obtain basin evaporation and the prediction of precipitation in preset time
Value, to be worth to the rich withered situation in the basin according to basin evaporation and the prediction of precipitation.
In order to achieve the above objectives, it is rich withered pre- to propose a kind of basin based on climatic factor for another aspect of the present invention embodiment
Dress system is surveyed, including：First modeling module, for according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data
With basin steam flux data, multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux are established；Second modeling module,
For according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data and basin temperature record, establishing multiple
Climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature；Third modeling module, for according to the basin steam flux data, institute
Basin temperature record and basin evaporation data, basin precipitation data are stated, establishes basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, drop
Water correlation model；Water vapor flux prediction module, for according to multiple climatic factor data in multiple preset times, and with reference to institute
Multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux are stated, prediction obtains basin water vapor flux；Temperature prediction module,
For according to multiple climatic factor data in the multiple preset time, and combine multiple climatic factor data and basin temperature
Distant correlation model, prediction obtain basin temperature；The rich withered prediction module in basin, for according to the basin water vapor flux and basin gas
Temperature, and with reference to the evaporation of the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin, precipitation correlation model, prediction obtains basin evaporation and precipitation,
And according to basin evaporation and precipitation, and basin topography and underlying surface information are combined, prediction obtains the rich withered situation in basin.
The rich withered prediction dress system in the basin based on climatic factor of the embodiment of the present invention, can by marine surface temperature and
The evaporation in other climatic factors prediction basin future and precipitation in conjunction with basin topography and underlying surface situation, are predicted long in basin
Phase rich withered situation, can accurately know the evaporation of different zones in basin, precipitation, runoff situation, so as to effectively improve
The accuracy of time prediction effectively improves the accuracy of Runoff forestry, and then can improve long-term rich withered shape in prediction basin
The precision of condition realizes that more rationally effective water resources utilize.
In addition, the rich withered forecasting system in the basin according to the above embodiment of the present invention based on climatic factor can also have with
Under additional technical characteristic：
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the multiple climatic factor data and basin water vapor flux are distant
Correlation model is：
Wherein, Qv(loc, t) is the SST (t at a certain position loc, the size and Orientation of t moment water vapor fluxi) it is ti
The marine surface temperature at moment, X (ti) it is tiThe intensity of multiple climatic factors at moment, X be multiple climatic factors, SST (ti) and
X(ti) for multiple moment marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors intensity,For the marine surface temperature and multiple
Climatic factor and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the multiple climatic factor data are distant related to basin temperature
Model is：
T (loc, t)=fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti),
Wherein, T (loc, t) be at a certain position loc, the temperature of t moment,TFor the marine surface temperature and multiple
Climatic factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation
Correlation model is：
E=fE(Qv),
P=fP(Qv),
Wherein, E is evaporation, and P is precipitation, fECorrelation model, f are evaporated for the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basinPFor
The basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin precipitation correlation model.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the rich withered prediction module in the basin is additionally operable to the basin
The predicted value of the predicted value of water vapor flux and the basin temperature as independent variable, input the basin water vapor flux, temperature and
Basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model obtain the basin evaporation in preset time and the predicted value of precipitation, to be steamed according to the basin
The prediction of hair and precipitation is worth to the rich withered situation in the basin.
The additional aspect of the present invention and advantage will be set forth in part in the description, and will partly become from the following description
It obtains significantly or is recognized by the practice of the present invention.
Description of the drawings
Above-mentioned and/or additional aspect and advantage of the invention will become from the following description of the accompanying drawings of embodiments
Significantly and it is readily appreciated that, wherein：
Fig. 1 is the flow chart according to the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin based on climatic factor of one embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the flow chart according to the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin based on climatic factor of a specific embodiment of the invention
Fig. 3 is the structural representation according to the rich withered forecasting system in the basin based on climatic factor of one embodiment of the invention
Figure.
Specific embodiment
The embodiment of the present invention is described below in detail, the example of the embodiment is shown in the drawings, wherein from beginning to end
Same or similar label represents same or similar element or the element with same or like function.Below with reference to attached
The embodiment of figure description is exemplary, it is intended to for explaining the present invention, and is not considered as limiting the invention.
The rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin based on climatic factor proposed according to embodiments of the present invention is described with reference to the accompanying drawings
And system, the rich withered prediction side in the basin based on climatic factor proposed according to embodiments of the present invention is described with reference to the accompanying drawings first
Method.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin based on climatic factor of one embodiment of the invention.
Include the following steps as shown in Figure 1, being somebody's turn to do the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in basin based on climatic factor：
In step S101, according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data and basin steam
Flux data establishes multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux.
It is understood that multiple climatic factor data can be the data such as sunspot intensity, air pressure.The present invention is implemented
Example can be based on having marine surface temperature data and multiple climatic factor data and basin steam flux data, so as to establish sea
Foreign surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.
Specifically, marine surface temperature to weather there are certain influence, direct mode is marine surface temperature energy
Enough influence steam generate number and temperature, so as to influence the water vapor flux in its leeward and temperature, and then influence its leeward
Evaporation and precipitation, for example, a most typical representative is exactly EI Nino (La Nina) phenomenon, therefore can pass through ocean table
Evaporation and precipitation in face temperature prediction following a period of time.In addition, other climatic factors, such as sunspot intensity, air pressure
Also to weather there are certain influence, these variables can be also allowed for evaporation in prediction following a period of time and precipitation
Model.Wherein, it about evaporation and the prediction of precipitation, will be described in detail below.
Optionally, in one embodiment of the invention, multiple climatic factor data and the distant relevant mode of basin water vapor flux
Type is：
Wherein, Qv(loc, t) is the SST (t at a certain position loc, the size and Orientation of t moment water vapor fluxi) it is ti
The marine surface temperature at moment, X (ti) it is tiThe intensity of multiple climatic factors at moment, X be multiple climatic factors, SST (ti) and
X(ti) for multiple moment marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors intensity,For marine surface temperature and multiple weathers
The factor and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.
Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention can pass through SVD (Singular value decomposition, singular value point
Solution) analysis or regression analysis establish marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and the distant relevant mode of long-term water vapor flux in basin
Type, and pass through and observe marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux, discovery portion in basin
The marine surface temperature and certain climatic factors for dividing marine site influence the water vapor flux at loc than more significant, can be according to research
The difference in basin is appropriate to simplify marine surface temperature and other climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin：
Wherein, SSTloc(ti) represent to influence water vapor flux at loc the marine surface temperature in more significant marine site, Xloc
(ti) represent to influence water vapor flux at loc the intensity of relatively more significant multiple climatic factors,Represent ocean table at loc
Face temperature and other climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.According to marine surface temperature and other weathers
The factor can be known with the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin, when the ocean in the marine site for influencing basin somewhere water vapor flux
Surface temperature and when to influence the intensity of multiple climatic factors of water vapor flux at this be certain value, after sometime, at this
Water vapor flux why be worth.
In step s 102, according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data and basin temperature
Data establish multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature.
That is, the embodiment of the present invention can be based on having marine surface temperature data and multiple climatic factor data and
Basin temperature record, so as to establish marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.
Optionally, in one embodiment of the invention, multiple climatic factor data are with the distant correlation model of basin temperature：
T (loc, t)=fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti),
Wherein, T (loc, t) is the f at a certain position loc, the temperature of t momentTFor marine surface temperature and multiple weathers
The factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.
Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention can by SVD analyze or regression analysis establish marine surface temperature and other
Climatic factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin, and pass through and observe marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and basin
The medium-term and long-term distant correlation model of temperature, find Partial Sea Area marine surface temperature and certain climatic factors to the temperature shadow at loc
It rings than more significant, it can be appropriate to simplify in marine surface temperature and other climatic factors and basin according to the difference in research basin
The distant correlation model of long-term temperature：
T (loc, t)=fT,loc(SSTloc(ti),Xloc(ti),ti),
Wherein, SSTloc(ti) represent to influence temperature at loc the marine surface temperature in more significant marine site, Xloc(ti)
Represent the intensity on other relatively more significant climatic factors of temperature influence at loc, fT,locRepresent loc at marine surface temperature and its
His climatic factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.According to marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and length in basin
The distant correlation model of phase temperature can know, when the marine site for influencing basin somewhere temperature marine surface temperature and influence temperature at this
Multiple climatic factors intensity be certain value when, after sometime, why the temperature at this is worth.
In step s 103, data, basin precipitation are evaporated according to basin steam flux data, basin temperature record and basin
Data establish basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model.
That is, the embodiment of the present invention can be based on having basin steam flux data, basin temperature record and basin
Data, basin precipitation data are evaporated, so as to establish basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model.
Optionally, in one embodiment of the invention, basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation relevant mode
Type is：
E=fE(Qv, T),
P=fP(Qv, T),
Wherein, E is evaporation, and P is precipitation, fECorrelation model, f are evaporated for basin water vapor flux, temperature and basinPFor basin
Water vapor flux, temperature and basin precipitation correlation model.
Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention can be established by regression analysis basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation,
Precipitation correlation model.It can be known according to the evaporation of basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin, precipitation correlation model, when basin somewhere
Water vapor flux and temperature when being certain value, why evaporation, precipitation at this are worth.
In step S104, according to multiple climatic factor data in multiple preset times, and multiple climatic factors are combined
Data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux, prediction obtain basin water vapor flux.
It is understood that the embodiment of the present invention can by now and marine surface temperature interior for the previous period and more
A climatic factor data input marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and water vapor flux long-term in basin are distant as independent variable
Correlation model can obtain the predicted value of the basin water vapor flux in following a period of time.
Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention can be based on having marine surface temperature data and other climatic factor data,
Long-term water vapor flux refers to based on existing marine surface temperature data and other climatic factor data in prediction basin, and combines sea
Foreign surface temperature and other climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin predict that long-term steam leads in basin
Amount.
In step S105, according to multiple climatic factor data in multiple preset times, and multiple climatic factors are combined
Data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature, prediction obtain basin temperature.
It is understood that the embodiment of the present invention can by now and marine surface temperature interior for the previous period and
Multiple climatic factor data input marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors and the distant phase of long-term temperature in basin as independent variable
Model is closed, obtains the predicted value of the basin temperature in following a period of time.
Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention can be based on having marine surface temperature data and multiple climatic factor data,
Long-term temperature refers to based on existing marine surface temperature data and multiple climatic factor data in prediction basin, and combines ocean table
Face temperature and other climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin, predict long-term temperature in basin.
In step s 106, according to basin water vapor flux and basin temperature, and water basin combination vapour flux, temperature and basin
Evaporation, precipitation correlation model, prediction obtain basin evaporation and precipitation, and according to basin evaporation and precipitation, and with reference to basin topography
With underlying surface information, prediction obtains the rich withered situation in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, prediction obtains basin evaporation and precipitation, further comprises：It will
The predicted value of basin water vapor flux is with the predicted value of basin temperature as independent variable, input basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin
Evaporation, precipitation correlation model obtain the basin evaporation in preset time and the predicted value of precipitation, with according to basin evaporation and precipitation
Prediction be worth to the rich withered situation in basin.
Specifically, the embodiment of the present invention can be based on long-term gas in water vapor flux long-term in the basin of prediction and basin
Temperature predicts that evaporation, precipitation refer to long-term water vapor flux and temperature in the basin based on prediction, and water basin combination for a long time in basin
Vapour flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model predict in basin evaporation, precipitation and the basin based on prediction for a long time
Medium-term and long-term evaporation, precipitation and basin topography and underlying surface situation predict that long-term rich withered situation refers to the stream based on prediction in basin
Evaporation, precipitation, and combine basin topography and underlying surface situation for a long time in domain predict long-term rich withered situation in basin.
In one particular embodiment of the present invention, it is as shown in Fig. 2, long-term rich in the basin based on climatic factors such as extra large temperature
Withered Forecasting Methodology includes the following steps：
Step S1 establishes marine surface temperature and other climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin；
Step S2 establishes marine surface temperature and other climatic factors and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin；
Step S3 establishes basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model；
Step S4 based on existing marine surface temperature data and other climatic factor data, predicts long-term steam in basin
Flux；
Step S5 based on existing marine surface temperature data and other climatic factor data, predicts long-term temperature in basin；
Step S6, long-term water vapor flux and long-term temperature in basin, predict and are steamed for a long time in basin in the basin based on prediction
Hair, precipitation；
Step S7, evaporation, precipitation and basin topography and underlying surface situation for a long time in the basin based on prediction, in prediction basin
Long-term rich withered situation.
To sum up, the embodiment of the present invention can be long-term in basin by the use of marine surface temperature and other climatic factors as predicting
The model-driven of rich withered situation improves the accuracy of time prediction, improves the accuracy of Runoff forestry, and can accurately obtain
Know the evaporation of different zones in basin, precipitation, runoff situation, utilized for water resources and more reference datas are provided, and then
More rationally effective it can carry out water resources utilization.
The rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin based on climatic factor proposed according to embodiments of the present invention, can pass through ocean surface
The evaporation in temperature and other climatic factors prediction basin future and precipitation, in conjunction with basin topography and underlying surface situation, pre- flow measurement
Long-term rich withered situation, can accurately know the evaporation of different zones in basin, precipitation, runoff situation, so as to have in domain
Effect improves the accuracy of time prediction, effectively improves the accuracy of Runoff forestry, and then can improve long-term in prediction basin
The precision of rich withered situation realizes that more rationally effective water resources utilize.
The rich withered prediction dress system in the basin based on climatic factor proposed according to embodiments of the present invention referring next to attached drawing description
System.
Fig. 3 is the structure diagram of the rich withered prediction dress system in the basin based on climatic factor of one embodiment of the invention.
As shown in figure 3, the rich withered prediction dress system 10 in basin that should be based on climatic factor includes：First modeling module 100,
Two modeling modules 200, third modeling module 300, water vapor flux prediction module 400, Temperature prediction module 500 and basin are rich withered pre-
Survey module 600.
Wherein, the first modeling module 100 is used for according to multiple climatic factor numbers including marine surface temperature data
According to basin steam flux data, establish multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux.Second modeling mould
Block 200 is used to, according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data and basin temperature record, establish more
A climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature.Third modeling module 300 is used for according to basin steam flux data, stream
Domain temperature record and basin evaporation data, basin precipitation data, establish basin water vapor flux, temperature is evaporated with basin, precipitation phase
Close model.Water vapor flux prediction module 400 is used for according to multiple climatic factor data in multiple preset times, and is combined multiple
Climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux, prediction obtain basin water vapor flux.Temperature prediction module 500 is used for
According to multiple climatic factor data in multiple preset times, and combine multiple climatic factor data and the distant relevant mode of basin temperature
Type, prediction obtain basin temperature.The rich withered prediction module 600 in basin is used for according to basin water vapor flux and basin temperature, and is combined
Basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model, prediction obtains basin evaporation and precipitation, and is steamed according to basin
Hair and precipitation, and basin topography and underlying surface information are combined, prediction obtains the rich withered situation in basin.The system 10 of the embodiment of the present invention
Evaporation and the precipitation in basin future can be predicted by marine surface temperature and other climatic factors, in conjunction with basin topography under
Pad face situation predicts long-term rich withered situation in basin, so as to effectively improve the accuracy of the rich withered prediction in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, multiple climatic factor data are distant related to basin water vapor flux
Model is：
Wherein, Qv(loc, t) is the SST (t at a certain position loc, the size and Orientation of t moment water vapor fluxi) it is ti
The marine surface temperature at moment, X (ti) it is tiThe intensity of multiple climatic factors at moment, X be multiple climatic factors, SST (ti) and
X(ti) for multiple moment marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors intensity,For marine surface temperature and multiple weathers
The factor and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature
For：
T (loc, t)=fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti),
Wherein, T (loc, t) is the f at a certain position loc, the temperature of t momentTFor marine surface temperature and multiple weathers
The factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, basin water vapor flux, temperature are related to basin evaporation, precipitation
Model is：
E=fE(Qv, T),
P=fP(Qv, T),
Wherein, E is evaporation, and P is precipitation, fECorrelation model, f are evaporated for basin water vapor flux, temperature and basinPFor basin
Water vapor flux, temperature and basin precipitation correlation model.
Further, in one embodiment of the invention, the rich withered prediction module 600 in basin is additionally operable to lead to basin steam
The predicted value of amount is with the predicted value of basin temperature as independent variable, and input basin water vapor flux, temperature are evaporated with basin, precipitation phase
Model is closed, obtains the basin evaporation in preset time and the predicted value of precipitation, to be obtained according to the predicted value of basin evaporation and precipitation
To the rich withered situation in basin.
It should be noted that the explanation of aforementioned withered Forecasting Methodology embodiment rich to the basin based on climatic factor is also fitted
For the rich withered forecasting system in the basin based on climatic factor of the embodiment, details are not described herein again.
The rich withered forecasting system in the basin based on climatic factor proposed according to embodiments of the present invention, can pass through ocean surface
The evaporation in temperature and other climatic factors prediction basin future and precipitation, in conjunction with basin topography and underlying surface situation, pre- flow measurement
Long-term rich withered situation, can accurately know the evaporation of different zones in basin, precipitation, runoff situation, so as to have in domain
Effect improves the accuracy of time prediction, effectively improves the accuracy of Runoff forestry, and then can improve long-term in prediction basin
The precision of rich withered situation realizes that more rationally effective water resources utilize.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be understood that term " " center ", " longitudinal direction ", " transverse direction ", " length ", " width ",
" thickness ", " on ", " under ", "front", "rear", "left", "right", " vertical ", " level ", " top ", " bottom " " interior ", " outer ", " up time
The orientation or position relationship of the instructions such as needle ", " counterclockwise ", " axial direction ", " radial direction ", " circumferential direction " be based on orientation shown in the drawings or
Position relationship is for only for ease of the description present invention and simplifies description rather than instruction or imply that signified device or element must
There must be specific orientation, with specific azimuth configuration and operation, therefore be not considered as limiting the invention.
In addition, term " first ", " second " are only used for description purpose, and it is not intended that instruction or hint relative importance
Or the implicit quantity for indicating indicated technical characteristic.Define " first " as a result, the feature of " second " can be expressed or
Implicitly include at least one this feature.In the description of the present invention, " multiple " are meant that at least two, such as two, three
It is a etc., unless otherwise specifically defined.
In the present invention unless specifically defined or limited otherwise, term " installation ", " connected ", " connection ", " fixation " etc.
Term should be interpreted broadly, for example, it may be being fixedly connected or being detachably connected or integral；Can be that machinery connects
It connects or is electrically connected；It can be directly connected, can also be indirectly connected by intermediary, can be in two elements
The connection in portion or the interaction relationship of two elements, unless otherwise restricted clearly.For those of ordinary skill in the art
For, the concrete meaning of above-mentioned term in the present invention can be understood as the case may be.
In the present invention unless specifically defined or limited otherwise, fisrt feature can be with "above" or "below" second feature
It is that the first and second features are in direct contact or the first and second features pass through intermediary mediate contact.Moreover, fisrt feature exists
Second feature " on ", " top " and " above " but fisrt feature right over second feature or oblique upper or be merely representative of
Fisrt feature level height is higher than second feature.Fisrt feature second feature " under ", " lower section " and " below " can be
One feature is immediately below second feature or obliquely downward or is merely representative of fisrt feature level height less than second feature.
In the description of this specification, reference term " one embodiment ", " example ", " is specifically shown " some embodiments "
The description of example " or " some examples " etc. means specific features, structure, material or the spy for combining the embodiment or example description
Point is contained at least one embodiment of the present invention or example.In the present specification, schematic expression of the above terms are not
It must be directed to identical embodiment or example.Moreover, particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described can be in office
It is combined in an appropriate manner in one or more embodiments or example.In addition, without conflicting with each other, the skill of this field
Art personnel can tie the different embodiments or examples described in this specification and the feature of different embodiments or examples
It closes and combines.
Although the embodiments of the present invention has been shown and described above, it is to be understood that above-described embodiment is example
Property, it is impossible to limitation of the present invention is interpreted as, those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the invention can be to above-mentioned
Embodiment is changed, changes, replacing and modification.
Claims (10)
1. the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in a kind of basin based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that include the following steps：
According to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data and basin steam flux data, establish multiple
Climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux；
According to multiple climatic factor data including the data including marine surface temperature and basin temperature record, establish multiple
Climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature；
Data, basin precipitation data are evaporated according to the basin steam flux data, the basin temperature record and basin, established
Basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model；
According to multiple climatic factor data in multiple preset times, and combine the multiple climatic factor data and basin steam
The distant correlation model of flux, prediction obtain basin water vapor flux；
According to multiple climatic factor data in the multiple preset time, and combine multiple climatic factor data and basin temperature
Distant correlation model, prediction obtain basin temperature；And
According to the basin water vapor flux and basin temperature, and with reference to the evaporation of the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin, precipitation
Correlation model, prediction obtains basin evaporation and precipitation, and according to basin evaporation and precipitation, and combines basin topography and underlay
Face information, prediction obtain the rich withered situation in basin.
2. the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin according to claim 1 based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that the multiple gas
Wait factor data is with the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux：
Wherein, Qv(loc, t) is the SST (t at a certain position loc, the size and Orientation of t moment water vapor fluxi) it is tiMoment
Marine surface temperature, X (ti) it is tiThe intensity of multiple climatic factors at moment, X be multiple climatic factors, SST (ti) and X
(ti) for multiple moment marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors intensity,For the marine surface temperature and multiple gas
Wait the factor and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.
3. according to the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin described in claim 1 based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that the multiple weather
Factor data is with the distant correlation model of basin temperature：
T (loc, t)=fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti),
Wherein, T (loc, t) is the f at a certain position loc, the temperature of t momentTFor the marine surface temperature and multiple weathers
The factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.
4. the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in the basin according to claim 1 based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that the basin water
Vapour flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model are：
E=fE(Qv, T),
P=fP(Qv, T),
Wherein, E is evaporation, and P is precipitation, fECorrelation model, f are evaporated for the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basinPIt is described
Basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin precipitation correlation model.
5. according to the rich withered Forecasting Methodology in basin of the claim 1-4 any one of them based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that institute
It states prediction and obtains basin evaporation and precipitation, further comprise：
Using the predicted value of the basin water vapor flux and the predicted value of the basin temperature as independent variable, the basin water is inputted
Vapour flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model obtain the basin evaporation in preset time and the predicted value of precipitation, with
The rich withered situation in the basin is worth to according to basin evaporation and the prediction of precipitation.
6. a kind of rich withered forecasting system in basin based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that including：
First modeling module, for according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data and basin steam
Flux data establishes multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux；
Second modeling module, for according to multiple climatic factor data including marine surface temperature data and basin
Temperature record establishes multiple climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature；
Third modeling module, for according to the basin steam flux data, the basin temperature record and basin evaporate data,
Basin precipitation data establishes basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model；
Water vapor flux prediction module for according to multiple climatic factor data in multiple preset times, and combines the multiple
Climatic factor data and the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux, prediction obtain basin water vapor flux；
Temperature prediction module for according to multiple climatic factor data in the multiple preset time, and combines multiple weathers
Factor data and the distant correlation model of basin temperature, prediction obtain basin temperature；And
The rich withered prediction module in basin, for leading to according to the basin water vapor flux and basin temperature, and with reference to the basin steam
Amount, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model, prediction obtain basin evaporation and precipitation, and evaporate and drop according to the basin
Water, and basin topography and underlying surface information are combined, prediction obtains the rich withered situation in basin.
7. the rich withered forecasting system in the basin according to claim 6 based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that the multiple gas
Wait factor data is with the distant correlation model of basin water vapor flux：
Wherein, Qv(loc, t) is the SST (t at a certain position loc, the size and Orientation of t moment water vapor fluxi) it is tiMoment
Marine surface temperature, X (ti) it is tiThe intensity of multiple climatic factors at moment, X be multiple climatic factors, SST (ti) and X
(ti) for multiple moment marine surface temperature and multiple climatic factors intensity,For the marine surface temperature and multiple gas
Wait the factor and the distant correlation model of long-term water vapor flux in basin.
8. the rich withered forecasting system in the basin according to claim 6 based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that the multiple gas
Wait factor data is with the distant correlation model of basin temperature：
T (loc, t)=fT(SST(ti),X(ti),loc,ti),
Wherein, T (loc, t) is the f at a certain position loc, the temperature of t momentTFor the marine surface temperature and multiple weathers
The factor and the distant correlation model of long-term temperature in basin.
9. the rich withered forecasting system in the basin according to claim 6 based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that the basin water
Vapour flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model are：
E=fE(Qv, T),
P=fP(Qv, T),
Wherein, E is evaporation, and P is precipitation, fECorrelation model, f are evaporated for the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basinPIt is described
Basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin precipitation correlation model.
10. according to the rich withered forecasting system in basin of the claim 6-9 any one of them based on climatic factor, which is characterized in that
The rich withered prediction module in basin is additionally operable to make the predicted value of the basin water vapor flux and the predicted value of the basin temperature
For independent variable, the basin water vapor flux, temperature and basin evaporation, precipitation correlation model are inputted, obtains the stream in preset time
Domain is evaporated and the predicted value of precipitation, to be worth to the rich withered situation in the basin according to basin evaporation and the prediction of precipitation.
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