CN105550501A - Method for recognizing drought evolution driving mechanism of basin/region - Google Patents
Method for recognizing drought evolution driving mechanism of basin/region Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for recognizing a drought evolution driving mechanism of a basin/region. The method comprises the following steps of (1) recognizing drought evolution driving factors; (2) analyzing a meteorological and hydrological feature evolution rule; (3) analyzing an underlying surface condition evolution rule; (4) analyzing an influencing period of the drought evolution driving factors; and (5) recognizing a drought evolution driving mode of the basin/region. In comparison with the prior art, the method takes a natural-manual binary water cycle theory as the main line and is combined with the influence of natural climatic change, man-made climatic change, underlying surface condition change and water conservancy project regulation on drought to construct the drought evolution driving mode, so that the drought driving factors can be more accurately recognized to provide a technological support for drought risk evaluation and response. The method can be widely applied to recognition of the drought evolution driving mechanism of the basin/region, in particular to recognition of the drought evolution driving mechanism of east Liaohe river basin.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of arid cause for evolution monitoring field, particularly relate to the recognition methods that a kind of basin/regional drought develops driving mechanism.
Background technology
Under climate change and the effect of human activity, worldwide arid totally present take place frequently, multiple, running fire and concurrent situation.Since 1900, global Droughts has caused more than 1,100 ten thousand people dead, and more than 2,000,000,000 people are affected.Immediate and mid-term, China's Loss Caused by Meteorological Disasters accounts for 61% of whole lose from natural calamity, and Droughts loss accounts for 55% of Loss Caused by Meteorological Disasters.Arid does not occur over just the relatively deficient northern area of water resource, frequently occurs in the southern area of water resource relative abundance yet.In recent years, southwest and In Middle And Lower Reaches of Changjiang River all there occurs the drought event of large area, long duration.Therefore, identify that the driving mechanism that arid develops has important function and significance.
Over nearly 10 years, the research of arid driving mechanism is mainly carried out from three aspects: one is the impact that climate change develops drought event; Two is impacts that mankind's activity develops drought event; Three is that climate change and mankind's activity are jointly on the impact that drought event develops.
For the driving mechanism of climate change to drought event, Chinese scholars has done many correlative studys.Xie An etc. are in the Northeast of China, Zhai Pan Mao etc. are in China northeast, North China and the Northwest, Gu waits quietly for Yuan Dynasty Guanzhong area, the large congruence of chapter is in east China area, DaiAG has all carried out correlative study in areas such as the U.S., result shows, unusual weather conditions (temperature raises or decrease in precipitation) cause above-mentioned area that arid occurs, or even the main cause of continuous drought.
Chinese scholars more and more paid close attention to the driving mechanism of mankind's activity for non-irrigated event in recent years, and it relates generally to the aspects such as Land_use change/covering change, hydraulic engineering construction.Fu Congbin etc. are in China's West of The Northeast China and east Inner Mongolia, ginger meets to be waited clearly in Xinjiang of China area, DeoRC etc. are in Australian eastern region, Zhang Huqiang etc. are in western China, Mu Xingmin etc. have all carried out correlative study in Southwestern China area, result shows, mankind's activity, and particularly land use change survey is the main cause of aggravating above-mentioned regional climate arid.
Along with the aggravation of climate change and the effect of human activity, the research simultaneously carried out drought event develops impact from climate change and mankind's activity two aspect is more and more paid close attention to.Cheng Guodong and Wang Genxu is in NORTHWEST CHINA area, Wang Jianhua and Guo Yue are in Chongqing City of China, Tong Yiqin etc. are in Ningbo City of China, Zhang Jiatuan and Qu Yanping is in China northeast, southwest, AminSB is in Lebanon of Mediterranean Region, Gong Zhiqiang and Feng Guolin is in the northern area of China, Zhang Yun etc. are in Xihaigu Prefecture, Guo Rui and Cha late autumn is at Jing river basin, Hou Guangliang etc. are in Eastern Qinghai Province, Stone surpasses in Tangshan City, slow roc and Zhang Shengtang have all carried out correlative study in the northern area of China, result shows, climate change and mankind's activity are the main causes that arid and drought occur in above-mentioned area.
The main deficiency of these methods is embodied in two aspects: one is analyze separately its impact developed drought event from climate change and mankind's activity two aspects, is difficult to the nature and the social property that embody arid; Two is comprehensively analyze its impact developed drought event from climate change and mankind's activity two aspects, but along with going deep into of climate change and the effect of human activity, binary drive characteristic that water cycle process presents significantly " nature-artificial ", building of hydraulic engineering and irrigating facility, in certain area, change the spatial-temporal distribution characteristic of drought event, said method is difficult to embody polynary, the complicated driving feature of also existing of drought event.Therefore, should serve as theme with the overall key element process of " nature-artificial " dualistic water cycle, the impact on arid such as distinct natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change, hydraulic engineering adjustment, the identification of arid driving mechanism under improving complex environment further.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to the deficiency developing driving mechanism recognition methods for existing arid, propose the recognition methods that a kind of basin/regional drought develops driving mechanism.The method is served as theme with " nature-artificial " dualistic water cycle theory, unified with nature climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change, the impact of hydraulic engineering adjustment on arid, build the drive pattern that arid develops, arid driven factor can be identified more accurately, for aridity risk evaluation and reply provide technical support.
To achieve these goals, the technical solution used in the present invention is: a kind of basin/regional drought develops the recognition methods of driving mechanism, and method step is as follows,
(1) driven factor that arid develops is identified
The indicator of major effect period comprises the adjustment of natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change and hydraulic engineering; The change of land surface condition can affect Water Vapor Content, but not independent factor, according to predictor selection independency principle, choose quantity of precipitation, Water Vapor Content and hydraulic engineering as judging that natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change and hydraulic engineering are to the indicator of the major effect period of broad sense arid; Consider the impact of latitude zone, place, basin quantity of precipitation by general circulation general layout, there is zonality, choose non-regional rainfall factor, be i.e. the quantity of precipitation of political divisions, place, basin and the quantity of precipitation in basin self;
(2) meteorological model key element development law is analyzed
The tendency of development law of Water Vapor Content, precipitation, temperature, evaporation, runoff, these main meteorological hydrographic features of soil moisture content in dialysis basin/region, mutability and periodically, obtain latitude zone, place, basin annual precipitation catastrophe point t
1, place, basin subregion annual precipitation catastrophe point t
2, the annual precipitation catastrophe point t in basin own
3, place, basin subregion Water Vapor Content catastrophe point t
4, then t=min{t
1, t
2, t
3, t
4for natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change are to the cut-point of arid major effect period, namely anthropogenic climate change has an impact to arid from t;
(3) land surface condition development law is analyzed
The development law Main Analysis Land Use Change of land surface condition and hydraulic engineering ruuning situation, in analysis stream/region, input operate time, main these main correlation parameters of water supply coverage of all reservoirs, determine that in basin/region, hydraulic engineering drops into the time t ' of utilization the earliest;
(4) influencing timeslice that arid develops driven factor is analyzed
Suppose t
sfor initial time, t
efor the end time, through the analysis of step (2) and step (3), can obtain natural climate change in calculation interval is [t to the influencing timeslice of arid
s, t '], in calculation interval, natural climate change and hydraulic engineering are [t ', t] to the influencing timeslice of arid, and in calculation interval, natural climate changes, anthropogenic climate change and hydraulic engineering be [t, t to the influencing timeslice of arid
e];
(5) drive pattern that basin/regional drought develops is identified
According to the analysis of step (4), the drive pattern that basin/regional drought develops can be identified.
As preferably, in step (1), natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change pass through to affect Water Vapor Content, precipitation and evapotranspiration, affect the supply and demand water of water resource system; Land surface condition change, by affecting runoff mechanism, affects surface water, the holard and groundwater run off; The adjustment of the hydraulic engineerings such as retaining, diversion, water lift, water transfer have impact on the water supply side of water resource system.
As preferably, in step (2), cubic spline function is adopted to carry out the analysis of trend of meteorological model key element, wherein, the significance test employing nonparametric statistics method of inspection; Mann-Kendall method and Yamamoto method is adopted to carry out mutability detection; Maximum Entropy Spectral Estimation is adopted to carry out periodicity extraction.
As preferably, in step (3), based on Land Use Change in remotely-sensed data of many phases analysis stream/region.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the advantages that: the inventive method is served as theme with " nature-artificial " dualistic water cycle theory, unified with nature climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change, the impact of hydraulic engineering adjustment on arid, build the drive pattern that arid develops, arid driven factor can be identified more accurately, for aridity risk evaluation and reply provide technical support.Basin/regional drought can be widely used in and develop driving mechanism identification, be specially adapted to East Liao River Basin arid and develop driving mechanism identification.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is that arid develops overall driving mechanism recognition principle;
Fig. 2 is the analytical approach that arid develops driving mechanism influencing timeslice;
Fig. 3 is the influencing timeslice analysis result that arid develops driven factor;
Fig. 4 is the arid drive pattern recognition result in embodiment;
Embodiment
The invention will be further described below;
Embodiment: see Fig. 1, Fig. 2, Fig. 3, Fig. 4, a kind of basin/regional drought develops the recognition methods of driving mechanism, and choose the East Liao River Basin that drought event takes place frequently and carry out positive research, method step is as follows:
(1) driven factor that arid develops is identified
Natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change, by affecting Water Vapor Content, precipitation and evapotranspiration, affect the supply and demand water of water resource system; Land surface condition change, by affecting runoff mechanism, affects surface water, the holard and groundwater run off; The adjustment of the hydraulic engineerings such as retaining, diversion, water lift, water transfer have impact on the water supply side of water resource system.Therefore, precipitation, Water Vapor Content, land surface condition, hydraulic engineering identify that above-mentioned 4 class driving forces are to the indicator of the major effect period of arid.And the change of land surface condition can affect Water Vapor Content, it is an independent factor not, according to predictor selection independency principle, choose quantity of precipitation, Water Vapor Content and hydraulic engineering as judging that natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change and hydraulic engineering are to the indicator of the major effect period of broad sense arid.Consider the impact of latitude zone, place, basin quantity of precipitation by general circulation general layout, there is zonality, choose non-regional rainfall factor, be i.e. the quantity of precipitation of political divisions, place, basin and the quantity of precipitation in basin self.Therefore, choose East Liao River Basin place subregion quantity of precipitation, the annual precipitation in basin own, temperature, potential evaporation amount, natural runoff, hydraulic engineering be adjusted to Main Driving Factors.
(2) meteorological model key element development law is analyzed
The development law (tendency, mutability and periodically) of the meteorological model key element such as Water Vapor Content, precipitation, temperature, evaporation, runoff in dialysis stream/region, the characters of climate and hydrology in stream/region can be understood better, simultaneously for identifying stream/regional drought driving mechanism, especially identify that the influencing timeslice of natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change convection current/regional drought provides foundation.Adopt cubic spline function to carry out the analysis of trend of meteorological model key element, wherein, inspection adopts the nonparametric statistics method of inspection; Mann-Kendall method and Yamamoto method is adopted to carry out mutability detection; Maximum Entropy Spectral Estimation is adopted to carry out periodicity extraction.Through above-mentioned analysis, place, basin subregion quantity of precipitation catastrophe point can be obtained in nineteen eighty-two, the annual precipitation catastrophe point in basin own is in nineteen eighty-two, penetration temperature height was in 1988, evaporation capacity catastrophe point is in nineteen ninety-five, natural runoff catastrophe point in 1984, then nineteen eighty-two be natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change to the cut-point of arid major effect period, namely anthropogenic climate change has an impact to arid from nineteen eighty-two.
(3) land surface condition development law is analyzed
The development law Main Analysis Land Use Change of land surface condition and hydraulic engineering ruuning situation.Based on Land Use Change in remotely-sensed data of many phases analysis stream/region; The correlation parameter such as input operate time, main water supply coverage of all reservoirs in analysis stream/region, determines that the time that hydraulic engineering in stream/region drops into utilization is the earliest nineteen fifty.
(4) influencing timeslice that arid develops driven factor is analyzed
The research period of the present embodiment is 1960 ~ 2010 years, through the analysis of step (2) and step (3), 1960 ~ 1981 years East Liao River Basin arids can be obtained and develop the main impact by natural climate change, land surface condition change (mainly land use change survey) and hydraulic engineering adjustment; The main impact regulated by natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change (mainly land use change survey) and hydraulic engineering of East Liao River Basin arid in 1982 ~ 2010 years.
(5) drive pattern that basin/regional drought develops is identified
According to the analysis of step (4), the drive pattern that basin/regional drought develops can be identified.
Mechanism of the present invention: arid is the class extremal process in weather nature evolution, affects, have the reoccurrence period by the nature rhythm and pace of moving things.Along with the change of weather and land surface condition, the frequency that arid occurs, intensity and time and spatial distribution characteristic all there occurs marked change.For reducing arid loss, the mankind are dispatched by the distribution and optimization of hydraulic engineering, have impact on frequency, intensity and coverage that arid occurs to a certain extent.Natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change and hydraulic engineering regulate the overall 4 class driving forces constituting arid and develop.With under increasing the anthropogenic climate change impact of warming up as essential characteristic, the frequency of extreme and continuous generation short of rain, in increasing situation, fundamentally changes the essential characteristic of arid; Land surface condition change changes Basin Rainfall runoff yield feature, thus has influence on water resources quantity and the available water in basin; By the Optimized Operation of River-Basin water conservancy engineering (group), the basin water supply that improve the dry period ensures, reduces influence degree and the scope (Fig. 1) of arid.Develop in driving mechanism identification in arid, emphasis is the contribution identifying that the change of anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition and hydraulic engineering regulate the frequency to arid, intensity and duration to change, to support the comprehensive reply of arid.
The method of the present invention is served as theme with " nature-artificial " dualistic water cycle theory, unified with nature climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change, the impact of hydraulic engineering adjustment on arid, build the drive pattern that arid develops, arid driven factor can be identified more accurately, for aridity risk evaluation and reply provide technical support.Above-mentioned conclusion illustrates that the method establishment arid utilizing the present invention to propose develops driving mechanism recognition methods and can analyze natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change and hydraulic engineering adjustment more exactly to the driving mechanism of arid differentiation, the aridity risk evaluation and the reply that can be next step provide supplemental support, can be applicable in actual project analysis.
Above exhaustive presentation is carried out to the recognition methods of a kind of basin provided by the present invention/regional drought differentiation driving mechanism, apply specific case herein to set forth principle of the present invention and embodiment, the explanation of above embodiment just understands method of the present invention and core concept thereof for helping; Simultaneously, for one of ordinary skill in the art, according to thought of the present invention, all will change in specific embodiments and applications, to change of the present invention and improve will be possible, and design and the scope of accessory claim defined can not be exceeded, in sum, this description should not be construed as limitation of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. basin/regional drought develops a recognition methods for driving mechanism, it is characterized in that: method step is as follows,
(1) driven factor that arid develops is identified
The indicator of major effect period comprises the adjustment of natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change, land surface condition change and hydraulic engineering; The change of land surface condition can affect Water Vapor Content, but not independent factor, according to predictor selection independency principle, choose quantity of precipitation, Water Vapor Content and hydraulic engineering as judging that natural climate change, anthropogenic climate change and hydraulic engineering are to the indicator of the major effect period of broad sense arid; Consider the impact of latitude zone, place, basin quantity of precipitation by general circulation general layout, there is zonality, choose non-regional rainfall factor, be i.e. the quantity of precipitation of political divisions, place, basin and the quantity of precipitation in basin self;
(2) meteorological model key element development law is analyzed
The tendency of development law of Water Vapor Content, precipitation, temperature, evaporation, runoff, these main meteorological hydrographic features of soil moisture content in dialysis basin/region, mutability and periodically, obtain latitude zone, place, basin annual precipitation catastrophe point t
1, place, basin subregion annual precipitation catastrophe point t
2, the annual precipitation catastrophe point t in basin own
3, place, basin subregion Water Vapor Content catastrophe point t
4, then t=min{t
1, t
2, t
3, t
4for natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change are to the cut-point of arid major effect period, namely anthropogenic climate change has an impact to arid from t;
(3) land surface condition development law is analyzed
The development law Main Analysis Land Use Change of land surface condition and hydraulic engineering ruuning situation, in analysis stream/region, input operate time, main these main correlation parameters of water supply coverage of all reservoirs, determine that in basin/region, hydraulic engineering drops into the time t ' of utilization the earliest;
(4) influencing timeslice that arid develops driven factor is analyzed
Suppose t
sfor initial time, t
efor the end time, through the analysis of step (2) and step (3), can obtain natural climate change in calculation interval is [t to the influencing timeslice of arid
s, t '], in calculation interval, natural climate change and hydraulic engineering are [t ', t] to the influencing timeslice of arid, and in calculation interval, natural climate changes, anthropogenic climate change and hydraulic engineering be [t, t to the influencing timeslice of arid
e];
(5) drive pattern that basin/regional drought develops is identified
According to the analysis of step (4), the drive pattern that basin/regional drought develops can be identified.
2. a kind of basin/regional drought develops the recognition methods of driving mechanism according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: in step (1), natural climate change and anthropogenic climate change, by affecting Water Vapor Content, precipitation and evapotranspiration, affect the supply and demand water of water resource system; Land surface condition change, by affecting runoff mechanism, affects surface water, the holard and groundwater run off; The adjustment of the hydraulic engineerings such as retaining, diversion, water lift, water transfer have impact on the water supply side of water resource system.
3. a kind of basin/regional drought develops the recognition methods of driving mechanism according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: in step (2), adopt cubic spline function to carry out the analysis of trend of meteorological model key element, wherein, significance test adopts the nonparametric statistics method of inspection; Mann-Kendall method and Yamamoto method is adopted to carry out mutability detection; Maximum Entropy Spectral Estimation is adopted to carry out periodicity extraction.
4. a kind of basin/regional drought develops the recognition methods of driving mechanism according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: in step (3), based on Land Use Change in remotely-sensed data of many phases analysis stream/region.
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Cited By (7)
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| CN106570340A (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2017-04-19 | 中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司 | River channel cross section groundwater runoff estimation method |
| CN107316095A (en) * | 2016-09-23 | 2017-11-03 | 武汉大学 | A kind of region meteorological drought grade prediction technique for coupling multi-source data |
| CN109086826A (en) * | 2018-08-06 | 2018-12-25 | 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 | Wheat Drought recognition methods based on picture depth study |
| CN110909973A (en) * | 2019-09-25 | 2020-03-24 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Comprehensive drought monitoring and evaluating method considering underlying surface condition |
| CN111984700A (en) * | 2020-08-17 | 2020-11-24 | 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Monthly runoff prediction method based on hydrothermal coupling balance principle |
| CN112765808A (en) * | 2021-01-15 | 2021-05-07 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Ecological drought monitoring and evaluating method |
| CN113592334A (en) * | 2021-08-09 | 2021-11-02 | 水利部牧区水利科学研究所 | Method for analyzing and evaluating influence factors of water fluctuation of rivers and lakes |
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| CN107316095A (en) * | 2016-09-23 | 2017-11-03 | 武汉大学 | A kind of region meteorological drought grade prediction technique for coupling multi-source data |
| CN107316095B (en) * | 2016-09-23 | 2020-09-11 | 武汉大学 | Regional weather drought level prediction method coupled with multi-source data |
| CN106570340A (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2017-04-19 | 中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司 | River channel cross section groundwater runoff estimation method |
| CN109086826A (en) * | 2018-08-06 | 2018-12-25 | 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 | Wheat Drought recognition methods based on picture depth study |
| CN109086826B (en) * | 2018-08-06 | 2021-05-07 | 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 | Wheat drought identification method based on image deep learning |
| CN110909973A (en) * | 2019-09-25 | 2020-03-24 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Comprehensive drought monitoring and evaluating method considering underlying surface condition |
| CN111984700A (en) * | 2020-08-17 | 2020-11-24 | 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Monthly runoff prediction method based on hydrothermal coupling balance principle |
| CN111984700B (en) * | 2020-08-17 | 2023-04-28 | 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 | Moon runoff prediction method based on hydrothermal coupling balance principle |
| CN112765808A (en) * | 2021-01-15 | 2021-05-07 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Ecological drought monitoring and evaluating method |
| CN112765808B (en) * | 2021-01-15 | 2022-11-15 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Ecological drought monitoring and evaluating method |
| CN113592334A (en) * | 2021-08-09 | 2021-11-02 | 水利部牧区水利科学研究所 | Method for analyzing and evaluating influence factors of water fluctuation of rivers and lakes |
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Application publication date: 20160504 |