CN107832895A - Crops disease forecast method - Google Patents
Crops disease forecast method Download PDFInfo
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- CN107832895A CN107832895A CN201711210653.2A CN201711210653A CN107832895A CN 107832895 A CN107832895 A CN 107832895A CN 201711210653 A CN201711210653 A CN 201711210653A CN 107832895 A CN107832895 A CN 107832895A
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- 208000037265 diseases, disorders, signs and symptoms Diseases 0.000 title claims abstract description 84
- 201000010099 disease Diseases 0.000 title claims abstract description 76
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 21
- 238000002513 implantation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 15
- 238000005457 optimization Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 208000031968 Cadaver Diseases 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000006378 damage Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- 208000027418 Wounds and injury Diseases 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 235000013339 cereals Nutrition 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000013480 data collection Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 239000004459 forage Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 208000014674 injury Diseases 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000003860 storage Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 230000004083 survival effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 241000894007 species Species 0.000 description 24
- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 description 12
- 238000002474 experimental method Methods 0.000 description 3
- 241000894006 Bacteria Species 0.000 description 2
- 241000196324 Embryophyta Species 0.000 description 2
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 2
- 208000035473 Communicable disease Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 241000244206 Nematoda Species 0.000 description 1
- 208000031662 Noncommunicable disease Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 241000592344 Spermatophyta Species 0.000 description 1
- 241000700605 Viruses Species 0.000 description 1
- 238000004220 aggregation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002776 aggregation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006806 disease prevention Effects 0.000 description 1
- 235000013399 edible fruits Nutrition 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000009313 farming Methods 0.000 description 1
- 208000015181 infectious disease Diseases 0.000 description 1
- 230000003071 parasitic effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000024241 parasitism Effects 0.000 description 1
- 244000052769 pathogen Species 0.000 description 1
- 238000000528 statistical test Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000000126 substance Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000006467 substitution reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/02—Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining
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- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Agronomy & Crop Science (AREA)
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- Marine Sciences & Fisheries (AREA)
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of crops disease forecast method, comprise the following steps：S1, the collection of historical data, classification, sequence, generation retrieval sequence table；S2, category storage, and the historical data of identical point is associated；S3, historical data is counted according to geographical position, disease species and Growth season respectively, statistical chart is drawn as ordinate using the quantity of all categories for abscissa, relevant historical data, the number average of middle historical data of all categories is calculated, and marks average value graduation mark；S4, proportion of crop planting position, implantation time, the quantity of generation disease and the quantity of corresponding average value corresponding to species are transferred respectively, calculate the probability of happening of disease respectively, averaged, the judgement intervened then is made whether according to the result asked for.Forecasting Methodology proposed by the present invention, accuracy is high, facilitates the optimization and adjustment of Plant plane, reduces the probability of happening of disease, improves the survival rate of crops, reduces planting cost.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the anti-harmful technical field of crops, more particularly to a kind of crops disease forecast method.
Background technology
Crops are growing with product storage, frequently suffer from the threat of disease.A part of disease is by true
The pathogens such as bacterium, virus, bacterium, nematode and parasitic seed plant cause, and this kind of disease is referred to as infectious disease or parasitism
Venereal disease does harm to, and also a kind of disease is due to the influence of the factors such as crop climate, soil, cultivation condition and harmful substance and occurred
The disease without contagion probability, referred to as noninfectious disease or physiological disturbance.Two kinds of diseases have fatal work to crops
With, therefore how to prevent and prevent that the generation of disease is significant.Crops disease forecast refers to following to crops
State is expected and speculated that saying for broad sense is exactly according to historical summary and new information, with appropriate method and skill
Art, analysis, estimation and deduction to the following carry out science of crops.However, the species of crops is more at present, classification is wide, in advance
Survey difficulty it is generally larger, along with the technological means of prediction is limited, thus for corps diseases prediction level need into
One step improves.Based on the shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention proposes a kind of crops disease forecast method.
The content of the invention
The invention aims to solve shortcoming present in prior art, and a kind of crops disease forecast proposed
Method.
Crops disease forecast method, comprises the following steps：
S1, historical data collection and arrangement：The species, position, hair that history corps diseases occur are collected from station is observed and predicted
Raw season and the extent of injury, are then sorted out, are sorted respectively according to geographical position, disease species and Growth season, and
Retrieval sequence table is generated according to sequence, and retrieves sequence table and is stored in forecasting system；
S2, historical data sequence and association：Historical data after sequence is stored respectively according to the difference of classification,
Then the historical data for the identical point being related in will be different classes of is mutually associated；
S3, the statistics of historical data and drafting：Respectively according to geographical position, disease species and Growth season to history number
According to being counted, and the quantity using geographical position as abscissa, relevant historical data is that ordinate draws statistical chart, with disease kind
Class is abscissa, the quantity of relevant historical data is that ordinate draws statistical chart, using Growth season as abscissa, relevant historical number
According to quantity draw statistical chart for ordinate, then calculate history in geographical position, disease species and Growth season classification respectively
The number average of data, and average value graduation mark is marked on corresponding statistical chart；
S4, prediction corps diseases situation：The generation disease in 1 kilometer of the planting location of crops to be predicted is transferred respectively
Quantity and the quantity of corresponding average value, the implantation time of crops to be predicted corresponding to the quantity of generation disease and corresponding flat
The quantity of generation disease and the quantity of corresponding average value corresponding to the quantity of average, the species of crops to be predicted, and according to
Planting location, implantation time and the species of crops carry out the calculating of disease probability of happening respectively, and by the result of calculation of three
Averaged, the judgement intervened then is made whether according to the result asked for.
Preferably, the geographical position, disease species and Growth season correspond to different numberings respectively.
Preferably, divided downwards step by step by province, city, county, town, village in the geographical position, and to the data in same village
It is numbered in order from 1, and different provinces, city, county, town, village use different numberings.
Preferably, the disease species is produce the species of the crops of disease, including cereal crops, industrial crops, work
Five industry crop, forage crop and medicinal crop subclass, and the title in each subclass according still further to crop is drawn
Point.
Preferably, the Growth season includes one in spring, summer, fall and winter, and may be used also in each season
With including upper, middle and lower three phases.
Preferably, the average value of the probability calculated in step S4 by planting location, implantation time and the species of crops
If less than 60%, show that the probability that disease occurs is relatively low, without being handled, if by planting location, implantation time and crops
The average value of probability that calculates of species need to lock in planting location, implantation time and the species of crops higher than 60%
Probability exceeds the part of corresponding average value, and carries out project setting and optimization for the contents of the section, while implements corresponding
The precautionary measures of disease.
Forecasting Methodology proposed by the present invention, to the history of corps diseases, a situation arises is collected, arranged and counted, and
Different according to classification carry out the drafting of statistical chart, and mark corresponding average value respectively, and the easy part that disease occurs is directly perceived
Show, facilitate manager to find the factor of disease generation, while history number is transferred respectively according to the characteristic of crops to be predicted
According to, and the probability scenarios corresponding to historical data are calculated, the disease possibility occurrence of crops is calculated further according to probability scenarios, is made
The mode calculated with a variety of aggregation of variable can improve the accuracy that disease probability occurs, while can according to the probability results of calculating
To trace major influence factors when disease occurs, manager is facilitated targetedly to be optimized to the Plant plane of crops
And adjustment, accomplish the generation of effective pre- disease prevention, reduce the probability of happening of disease, improve the survival rate of crops, reduce farming
Thing planting cost.
Embodiment
The present invention is made with reference to specific embodiment further to explain.
Embodiment
Crops disease forecast method proposed by the present invention, S1, historical data collection and arrangement：Gone through from station collection is observed and predicted
History corps diseases occur species, position, Growth season and the extent of injury, then according to geographical position, disease species with
And Growth season is sorted out, sorted respectively, and retrieval sequence table is generated according to sequence, and retrieve sequence table and be stored in prediction system
In system；
S2, historical data sequence and association：Historical data after sequence is stored respectively according to the difference of classification,
Then the historical data for the identical point being related in will be different classes of is mutually associated；
S3, the statistics of historical data and drafting：Respectively according to geographical position, disease species and Growth season to history number
According to being counted, and the quantity using geographical position as abscissa, relevant historical data is that ordinate draws statistical chart, with disease kind
Class is abscissa, the quantity of relevant historical data is that ordinate draws statistical chart, using Growth season as abscissa, relevant historical number
According to quantity draw statistical chart for ordinate, then calculate history in geographical position, disease species and Growth season classification respectively
The number average of data, and average value graduation mark is marked on corresponding statistical chart；
S4, prediction corps diseases situation：The generation disease in 1 kilometer of the planting location of crops to be predicted is transferred respectively
Quantity and the quantity of corresponding average value, the implantation time of crops to be predicted corresponding to the quantity of generation disease and corresponding flat
The quantity of generation disease and the quantity of corresponding average value corresponding to the quantity of average, the species of crops to be predicted, and according to
Planting location, implantation time and the species of crops carry out the calculating of disease probability of happening respectively, and by the result of calculation of three
Averaged, if average value be less than 60%, show occur disease probability it is relatively low, without being handled, if by planting location,
The average value for the probability that the species of implantation time and crops calculates needs to lock planting location, implantation time higher than 60%
Exceed the part of corresponding average value with probability in the species of crops, and project setting and excellent is carried out for the contents of the section
Change, while implement the precautionary measures of corresponding disease.
In the present invention, geographical position, disease species and Growth season correspond to different numberings respectively；In geographical position by
Province, city, county, town, village are divided downwards step by step, and the data in same village are numbered from 1 in order, and different provinces, city,
County, town, village use different numberings；Disease species is produce the species of the crops of disease, including cereal crops, economical make
Five thing, insutrial crop, forage crop and medicinal crop subclass, and the title in each subclass according still further to crop is entered
Row division；Growth season include spring, summer, one in fall and winter, and can also include in each season it is upper, in,
Lower three phases.
The soil of 4 pieces of Planting Crops is chosen, and every block of soil is divided into 2 parts, a part is another as experiment soil
Soil, experiment are predicted respectively according to Forecasting Methodology proposed by the present invention suddenly as a comparison for part, and according to the knot of prediction
Fruit makes corresponding project setting, does prevention of damage by disease measure, and contrasts soil and Plant plane is not adjusted, experiment soil and
Contrast soil is planted simultaneously, and statistical test soil, compared to the disease damage rate of contrast soil, result of the test is shown, is made
The damage ratio that the soil disease after project setting is predicted and carried out with Forecasting Methodology proposed by the present invention is only corresponding contrast
The 28%~36% of soil, shows, Forecasting Methodology proposed by the present invention can effectively help staff to make rational prevention
Measure, reduce the loss late of disease.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention be not limited thereto,
Any one skilled in the art the invention discloses technical scope in, technique according to the invention scheme and its
Inventive concept is subject to equivalent substitution or change, should all be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. crops disease forecast method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
S1, historical data collection and arrangement：Collect species, position that history corps diseases occur from station is observed and predicted, season occurs
Section and the extent of injury, are then sorted out, are sorted respectively according to geographical position, disease species and Growth season, and according to
Sequence generation retrieval sequence table, and retrieve sequence table and be stored in forecasting system；
S2, historical data sequence and association：Historical data after sequence is stored respectively according to the difference of classification, then
The historical data for the identical point being related in will be different classes of is mutually associated；
S3, the statistics of historical data and drafting：Historical data is entered according to geographical position, disease species and Growth season respectively
Row statistics, and the quantity using geographical position as abscissa, relevant historical data be ordinate draw statistical chart, using disease species as
Abscissa, the quantity of relevant historical data draw statistical chart for ordinate, using Growth season as abscissa, relevant historical data
Quantity is that ordinate draws statistical chart, then historical data in calculating geographical position, disease species and Growth season classification respectively
Number average, and on corresponding statistical chart mark average value graduation mark；
S4, prediction corps diseases situation：The number of the generation disease in 1 kilometer of the planting location of crops to be predicted is transferred respectively
Quantity and corresponding average value of the amount with the generation disease corresponding to the quantity of corresponding average value, the implantation time of crops to be predicted
Quantity, the quantity of generation disease and the quantity of corresponding average value corresponding to the species of crops to be predicted, and according to plantation
The species of position, implantation time and crops carries out the calculating of disease probability of happening respectively, and the result of calculation of three is asked for
Average value, the judgement intervened then is made whether according to the result asked for.
2. crops disease forecast method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the geographical position, disease species
And Growth season corresponds to different numberings respectively.
3. crops disease forecast method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that in the geographical position by province, city,
County, town, village are divided downwards step by step, and the data in same village are numbered from 1 in order, and different provinces, city, county, town,
Village uses different numberings.
4. crops disease forecast method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the disease species are generation disease
Crops species, including five cereal crops, industrial crops, insutrial crop, forage crop and medicinal crop subclasses
Not, and the title in each subclass according still further to crop is divided.
5. crops disease forecast method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the Growth season include spring,
One in summer, fall and winter, and can also include upper, middle and lower three phases in each season.
6. crops disease forecast method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that by planting position in the step S4
If putting, the average value for the probability that the species of implantation time and crops calculates is less than 60%, show to occur the probability of disease compared with
It is low, without being handled, if the average value of the probability calculated by planting location, implantation time and the species of crops is higher than
60% need to lock planting location, implantation time and crops species in probability exceed the part of corresponding average value,
And project setting and optimization are carried out for the contents of the section, while implement the precautionary measures of corresponding disease.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201711210653.2A CN107832895A (en) | 2017-11-27 | 2017-11-27 | Crops disease forecast method |
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201711210653.2A CN107832895A (en) | 2017-11-27 | 2017-11-27 | Crops disease forecast method |
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| CN107832895A true CN107832895A (en) | 2018-03-23 |
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| CN201711210653.2A Pending CN107832895A (en) | 2017-11-27 | 2017-11-27 | Crops disease forecast method |
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114638445A (en) * | 2022-05-19 | 2022-06-17 | 北京佳格天地科技有限公司 | Method, device, medium and electronic equipment for preventing crop diseases |
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| CN103064365A (en) * | 2012-12-11 | 2013-04-24 | 南京理工大学 | Agriculture comprehensive information remote wireless monitoring and pre-warning system |
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2017
- 2017-11-27 CN CN201711210653.2A patent/CN107832895A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103064365A (en) * | 2012-12-11 | 2013-04-24 | 南京理工大学 | Agriculture comprehensive information remote wireless monitoring and pre-warning system |
| CN105872030A (en) * | 2016-03-25 | 2016-08-17 | 湖南省农业信息与工程研究所 | System and method for detecting and reporting diseases and insect pests |
| CN107194506A (en) * | 2017-05-10 | 2017-09-22 | 北京兴农丰华科技有限公司 | Diseases and pests of agronomic crop warning information analysis method |
| CN107103395A (en) * | 2017-05-31 | 2017-08-29 | 宁波高新区鹏博科技有限公司 | A kind of short-term method for early warning of crop pests |
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| Title |
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| 赵增锋: "苹果病虫害种类、地域分布及主要病虫害发生趋势研究", 《中国博士学位论文全文数据库农业科技辑》 * |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114638445A (en) * | 2022-05-19 | 2022-06-17 | 北京佳格天地科技有限公司 | Method, device, medium and electronic equipment for preventing crop diseases |
| CN114638445B (en) * | 2022-05-19 | 2022-07-29 | 北京佳格天地科技有限公司 | Method, device, medium, and electronic device for crop disease prevention |
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