CN107808211A - A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method - Google Patents

A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN107808211A
CN107808211A CN201710832337.2A CN201710832337A CN107808211A CN 107808211 A CN107808211 A CN 107808211A CN 201710832337 A CN201710832337 A CN 201710832337A CN 107808211 A CN107808211 A CN 107808211A
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
water
requirement
prediction
demand
industry
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Pending
Application number
CN201710832337.2A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Inventor
周亚岐
于京要
谢子书
吴彦斌
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
Individual
Original Assignee
Individual
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Individual filed Critical Individual
Priority to CN201710832337.2A priority Critical patent/CN107808211A/en
Publication of CN107808211A publication Critical patent/CN107808211A/en
Pending legal-status Critical Current

Links

Classifications

    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0631Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
    • G06Q10/06315Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Energy or water supply
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02ATECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A20/00Water conservation; Efficient water supply; Efficient water use
    • Y02A20/152Water filtration

Landscapes

  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Public Health (AREA)
  • Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
  • General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Primary Health Care (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

The invention belongs to hydraulic engineering field, more particularly to a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, including step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the prediction of tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.Beneficial effects of the present invention:Water requirement will be predicted according to social economic development of region target and index, water requirement is divided into five fractional predictions, determines that region gross water requirement is included in public supply mains leak rate, and water system dynamic process be needed by analysis, realizing needs water trend prediction to regional water resources;The reasonability of water requirement is analyzed, according to three red lines and water price regulatory mechanism, regional water resources regulated and controled, so as to realize the region even water resources rational use of basin aspect.

Description

A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method
Technical field
The invention belongs to hydraulic engineering field, more particularly to a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method.
Background technology
Water Resources Demand Forecast is one of element task of water resource administrative system.Current world economy high speed development, Water resources crisis is increasingly shown especially, how to predict that the water requirement in future is endangered to avoid the waste of investment or reduce future with water exactly The generation of machine turns into an important research topic, has carried out extensive research both at home and abroad.
At home, China has carried out first time water resources survey and water resource Utilization assessment work the eighties in last century Make.According to socio-economic development situation at that time, with 2000 for predicting long-term forcasted years, it is proposed that national, each basin piece and each The water demand forecast achievement and research report of three levels of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities.After this, difference department in China's mutually goes on Gone influences more far-reaching program results several times.In April, 2002, China organize water resource assets authorized strength work, Planning is according to the Scientific Outlook on Development and the general requirement built a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society.
Following water demand is related to many factors such as economy, society, is a complicated change procedure, predicts in addition The limitation of method, water supply and demand is caused to hold inaccurate.Past many departments prediction result all or will be by It is proved to be obvious bigger than normal, causes the misleading to varying degrees to planning for water resources development and water supply project.Meanwhile in many regional faces Face today of water shortage situation, how for social economy-water resources complex system characteristic, proposition meet regional water resources change The water demand prediction method of feature, successfully manage the shortage of water resources crisis that climate change is brought.China integrates in basin water resources In planning, also clearly propose to take into full account influence and challenge that climate change is brought, take into full account various possible influences.Cause This, increases, socio-economic development situation of change according to Future Climate scene, population, scientific forecasting future water resource supply and demand change Process simultaneously proposes that corresponding regulation measure has turned into the major issue of current China's water resources management.
The content of the invention
To solve the above problems, the present invention provides a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method.
Technical scheme:A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the Three industry Water Demand Predictions, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.
Further, water requirement refers to varying level yearly water consumption in the step 1, is to adapt to the national economic development Reasonable water requirement under overall goal requirement, is the water requirement under the conditions of sustainable use.
Further, industrial water requirements prediction refers to present situation industrial structure, production technology etc. for base in the step 2 Plinth, consider the water saving potential in varying level year, divide power industry, general industry, village industry to be predicted respectively;
Industrial water requirements calculates ten thousand yuan of industrial added values and analysis industry water consumption quota in the varying level year by predicting Carry out analysis calculating;
Industrial water consumption IW=QY, wherein Q are ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota (m3/ ten thousand yuan), Y is industrial then Ten thousand yuan of value addeds are (ten thousand yuan).
Further, life needs moisture urban life and the class of life in the countryside two in the step 2, and urban life is containing public Cause water, the big life in rural area include livestock water, and life water demand forecast is entered using civil water quota method per capita in step 2 Row prediction;
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);Po is with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is the net quota (L/ of domestic water People d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
Further, agricultural water consumption is mainly irrigated including planting industry, woods fruit and grassland in the step 2, fishery needs Water.
Further, planting industry, woods fruit and grassland crop structure are by storing, drawing, the job facilities such as carrying to farmland, woods Ground, grassland are supplied water, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural irrigation water demand forecast uses quota method;
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet jj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2); gNet jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (m3/ ten thousand hm2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
Further, fishery needs water to include water surface for aquaculture evaporation, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss.
Further, water demand of ecological environment described in the step 2 has relativity, different ecological environments, difference Ecological environmental protection strategy under water demand of ecological environment be different.
Further, determine that region gross water requirement needs to be included in public supply mains leak rate in the step 3.
Further, the analysis on its rationality of water requirement is based primarily upon five aspects in the step 3:Expanding economy speed Degree;It is expected that industrial water consumption;Live Use Water Quota predicts whether to meet internal and international water saving standard;Water demand of ecological environment exists Demand-decided model in regular period;Whether the control requirement of " three red line " is met.
Present invention has the advantages that:It is industrial water demand that moisture, which will be needed, according to social economic development of region target and index prediction Measure prediction, the prediction of tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction five Individual part, determine that region gross water requirement is included in public supply mains leak rate, water system dynamic process, realization pair are needed by analysis Regional water resources need water trend prediction, and the reasonability of water requirement is analyzed, and regulate and control machine according to " three red lines " and water price Regional water resources are regulated and controled by system, so as to realize the region even water resources rational use of basin aspect, support area economy Social sustainable development.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the FB(flow block) of the present invention.
Embodiment
A kind of embodiment of the present invention is explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 be the present invention FB(flow block), a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, it is characterised in that including following step Suddenly:
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;Water requirement refers to varying level yearly water consumption, is to adapt to national economy The reasonable water requirement developed under overall goal requirement, is the water requirement under the conditions of sustainable use.
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the Three industry Water Demand Predictions, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
(1) industrial water requirements prediction refers to based on present situation industrial structure, production technology etc., considers varying level year Water saving potential, power industry, general industry, village industry is divided to be predicted respectively.
Industrial water requirements calculates ten thousand yuan of industrial added values by predicting varying level year and analyzes industry water consumption quota Row analysis calculates;
Industrial water consumption IW=QY, wherein Q are ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota (m3/ ten thousand yuan), Y is industrial then Ten thousand yuan of value addeds are (ten thousand yuan).
(2) tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction;The tertiary industry includes business's drink industry and service trade, the former tertiary industry are divided in greatly In industry.
(3) domestic water demand is predicted;Life needs water to include urban life and the class of life in the countryside two.Urban life contains public thing Industry water, drinking water in rural China include livestock water, and life water demand forecast is carried out using daily water consumption method per capita in step 2 Prediction.
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);Po is with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is the net quota (L/ of domestic water People d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
(4) agricultural water consumption is predicted;Agricultural water consumption, which mainly includes planting industry, woods fruit and grassland irrigation, fishery, needs water.
In step 2 planting industry, woods fruit and grassland crop structure be by store, draw, carry etc. job facilities to farmland, forest land, Grassland is supplied water, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural irrigation water demand forecast uses quota method;
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet jj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2); gNet jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (m3/ ten thousand hm2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
Fishery needs water to include water surface for aquaculture evaporation, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss in step 2.
(5) water demand of ecological environment is predicted;Water demand of ecological environment has a relativity, different ecological environments, different Water demand of ecological environment under ecological environmental protection strategy is different.
According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, 5 parts are divided into, industrial water requirements is pre- Survey, the prediction of tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction, division are closed Reason, convenient prediction.
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;Determine that region gross water requirement needs to be included in public supply mains leak rate.
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.The analysis on its rationality of water requirement is based primarily upon five aspects:Economic hair Open up speed;It is expected that industrial water consumption;Live Use Water Quota predicts whether to meet internal and international water saving standard;Ecological environment water demand Measure demand-decided model over a period to come;Whether the control requirement of " three red line " is met.
Embodiment 1
By taking Chengde as an example, Chengde water demand amount is predicted.Water demand analyze forecasting research with In year on the basis of 2010, using the year two thousand twenty as medium term planning forcasted years, the year two thousand thirty is as long term planning forcasted years.
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;Water requirement refers to varying level yearly water consumption, is to adapt to national economy The reasonable water requirement developed under overall goal requirement, is the water requirement under the conditions of sustainable use.Prediction principle mainly considers:
(1) it is combined with Levels of Social Economic Development.Using each forcasted years socio-economic development index as foundation, implementing to hold The principle of supervention exhibition, demand of each industry development of make overall plans society, economy, ecology, environment etc. to water.
(2) consider the restrictive function that water scarcity increases to water requirement, implement water-saving policy comprehensively.
(3) consider that socialist market economy system, economic restructuring and scientific and technological progress will need the influence of water to future.
(4) pay attention to present situation basic data, law-analysing and trend analysis, water demand forecast symbol are carried out with reference to history actual conditions Close each regional characteristics.
(5) reasonable disposition water resource, overall arrangement life, production, ecological environment and Water Consumption in Agriculture.
It is reasonable to predict that principle is set, water demand analysis forecasting research year on the basis of 2010, using the year two thousand twenty as Medium term planning forcasted years, the year two thousand thirty as long term planning forcasted years, are advantageous to the medium-term and long-term plans of water demand.
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the Three industry Water Demand Predictions, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
(1) industry (industry, construction industry) Water Demand Prediction
Industrial water requirements is predicted based on present situation industrial structure, production technology etc., considers that the water saving in varying level year is dived Power, power industry, general industry, village industry is divided to be predicted respectively.
Industrial water requirements calculates ten thousand yuan of industrial added values and analysis industry water consumption quota in the varying level year by predicting Carry out analysis calculating.If ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota Q (m3/ ten thousand yuan), industrial ten thousand yuan of value addeds are Y (ten thousand yuan) then, Then industrial water consumption IW=QY.
Ten thousand yuan of Chengde industrial added value average consumption 40m in 20103/ ten thousand yuan.With reference to each administrative area difference water-saving Flat and Different Industries developing direction, predicts each forcasted years water consumption quota by different administrative areas, refers to table 1 respectively.
The Chengde County Subdivision industrial water demand quota prediction outcome table unit of table 1:m3/ ten thousand yuan
Administrative area 2020 forcasted years 2030 forcasted years
Weichang 19 10
Longhua County 32 17
Pingquan County 24 13
Chengde County 29 16
Xinglong County 31 16
Kuan Cheng counties 16 9
Fengning County 22 12
Luanping County 21 11
3rd area and industrial zone 35 25
According to the water consumption quota of prediction and industrial added value situation, varying level year County Subdivision industrial water requirements is analyzed, 2020 horizontal yearly water consumptions are 202,250,000 m3, 2030 horizontal yearly water consumptions are 228,570,000 m3.Achievement is shown in Table 2.
The Chengde County Subdivision industrial water requirements prediction unit of table 2:Ten thousand m3
(2) tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction
The tertiary industry includes business and drinks industry and service trade, and the former tertiary industry is divided in big industry.Traveled for Chengde Industry is more flourishing, the tertiary industry with water ratio it is higher in the case of, the tertiary industry must individually be considered.Tertiary industry water The determination of quota is complex, with reference to Hebei province's aggregate level and combines city statistics comprehensive analysis in recent years, 2010 The comprehensive water-using of the tertiary industry is rated for 40m3/ ten thousand yuan, by implementing the measures such as transformation on economy of water cousumption, it is contemplated that by 2020 be 33m3/ Wan Yuan, the year two thousand thirty 20m3/ ten thousand yuan, it is 82,380,000 m to predict 2020 forcasted years tertiary industry water requirements accordingly3, 2030 forcasted years Water requirement is 120,650,000 m3.It is shown in Table 3.
The Chengde County Subdivision tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction outcome table unit of table 3:Ten thousand m3
(3) domestic water demand is predicted
Life needs moisture urban life and the class of life in the countryside two, urban life water containing government utility, the big life bag in rural area Livestock water is included, water demand forecast is predicted using civil water quota method per capita.
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);P0For with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is the net quota (L/ of domestic water People d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
The factor that the method considers is to use water population and water demand quota.Water demand quota is using present situation water survey data as base Plinth, situation of change over the years is analyzed, consider varying level year town dweller's per capita income level, water price level, water-demand management, water saving Utensil promotion and popularization situation, domestic water custom etc., drafts its corresponding water consumption quota.
Net quota is combined and held with reference to the established water supply standard of construction department, domestic similar regional Live Use Water Quota The actual conditions in moral city, each forcasted years cities and towns and the net quota of urban residents' domestic water are drafted respectively.
The present situation city population lives water consumption quota average out to 100L/ day for human beings, it is contemplated that living standard improves and water saving is arranged Apply the factors such as raising, it is predicted that 2020 forcasted years water consumption quotas are the 110L/ day for human beings, and 2030 forcasted years water consumption quotas are 120 L/ The day for human beings.
Present situation people in the countryside Live Use Water Quota is the 45L/ day for human beings, it is contemplated that living standard improves and water saving measures improve Etc. factor, it is predicted that 2020 forcasted years water consumption quotas are the 50L/ day for human beings, and 2030 forcasted years water consumption quotas are the 60L/ day for human beings.
Chengde present situation government utility water consumption quota is the 45L/ day for human beings, it is contemplated that social development needs, and determines 2020 water Non-leap year level is the 50L/ day for human beings, and 2030 forcasted years level is the 60L/ day for human beings.
Livestock is predicted with water by draught animal and small livestock civil water quota method.It is shown in Table 4.Each county's Water Demand Prediction achievement is shown in Table 5。
The animal husbandry water consumption quota of table 4 predicts unit:L/ head days
Species 2020 forcasted years 2030 forcasted years
Draught animal 50 40
Small livestock 13 7
The Chengde County Subdivision domestic water demand prediction outcome table unit of table 5:Ten thousand m3
(4) agricultural water consumption is predicted
Agricultural is that the primary industry needs water mainly to include planting industry, woods fruit and grassland irrigation, the moisturizing of the fishing pool etc..
Planting industry, woods fruit and grassland crop structure are by storing, drawing, the job facilities such as carrying and supplied to farmland, forest land, grassland Water, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural irrigation water demand forecast uses quota method, is related to the net irrigation quota of all kinds crop, fills Irrigate three key indexs of Water application rate and irrigated area.
Agricultural production irrigation requirement considers water efficiency of irrigation, and it is 0.45 or so, 2020,2030 that 2010 actual Forcasted years develop the development of overall development level and water-saving irrigation measure according to country and water resources in Hebei Province, press respectively 0.55th, 0.69 meter.Irrigation norm takes into full account the irrigation water water coefficient after water saving, respectively by normal flow year 50% and low flow year 75% two kind of fraction analysis.
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet jj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2); gNet jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (m3/ ten thousand hm2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
Planting industry irrigation requirement includes paddy field, crop field and field of vegetables irrigation requirement, and wherein paddy field, crop field water demand forecast is pressed The above method is calculated.Field of vegetables Water Demand Prediction, including commodity field of vegetables need water and rural area field of vegetables to need water two parts.Irrigation norm It is shown in Table 6.Agricultural water consumption prediction is shown in Table 7.
The Chengde planting industry of table 6, woods fruit and grassland irrigation norm prediction outcome table unit:m3/ mu
The Chengde County Subdivision planting industry of table 7, woods fruit and grassland irrigation requirement prediction outcome table unit:Ten thousand m3
Fishery needs water to include water surface for aquaculture evaporation, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss, with reference to real in recent years Border water using level determines fishing pool water consumption quota.Fishery, animal husbandry water consumption quota are shown in Table 8.
The Chengde fishery of table 8, animal husbandry water consumption quota prediction unit:m3/ mu
Chengde present situation primary industry the year two thousand twenty, the year two thousand thirty water requirement are shown in Table 9.
The Chengde County Subdivision agricultural water consumption prediction outcome table unit of table 9:Ten thousand m3
(5) water demand of ecological environment is predicted
Water demand of ecological environment has relativity, and different ecological environments, different ecological environmental protection strategies are (as improved Strategy, maintain strategy etc.) under water demand of ecological environment be different.
When carrying out ecological environment water demand prediction, urban greening is only accounted for water, the moisturizing of river lake, environmental sanitation water Deng considering respectively for this ecological environment water demand prediction point greening water requirement, river lake moisturizing water requirement, environmental sanitation water requirement.
Using unit plane, water demand quota multiplies green coverage and tried to achieve greening water requirement for many years, by norm with reference to domestic and international water using level It is general to choose (0.5~1m3/m2·a).Chengde present situation greening water demand quota is 0.6m3/m2A, consider that social development needs And the extension of city size, 2020 forcasted years, 2030 forcasted years quota are still 0.6m3/m2·a。
The moisturizing of river lake multiplies river lake moisturizing area using unit area moisturizing quota and tried to achieve.Quota reference area weather conditions and The based process measure in general river lake water domain, (5~100,000 m are chosen by norm under general seepage control measure3/hm2·a).Chengde present situation The moisturizing of river lake is rated for 50,000 m3/hm2A, predict that 2020 forcasted years and 2030 forcasted years quota still maintain 50,000 m3/hm2·a。
Environmental sanitation moisturizing Water Demand Prediction using unit plane, defend area and try to achieve for many years by water demand quota multiplication ring.Chengde present situation environmental sanitation It is rated for 0.73m3/m2A, 2020 forcasted years and 2030 forcasted years quota remain unchanged.
Quota and the varying level yearly correlation area index of prediction more than, analyzing 2020 horizontal yearly water consumptions is 59650000 m3, it is 84,040,000 m to 2030 horizontal yearly water consumptions3Chengde County Subdivision water demand of ecological environment is shown in Table 10.
The Chengde County Subdivision water demand of ecological environment prediction outcome table unit of table 10:Ten thousand m3
Administrative area The year two thousand twenty The year two thousand thirty
Weichang 117 171
Longhua County 733 1078
Pingquan County 663 971
Chengde County 1957 2627
Xinglong County 219 230
Kuan Cheng counties 152 246
Fengning County 458 607
Luanping County 686 1002
3rd area (contain industrial zone) 981 1472
The whole city 5965 8404
According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, be divided into 5 part industrial water requirements predictions, Tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction, division is reasonable, Convenient prediction.
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;Determine that region gross water requirement needs to consider that urban water supply considers pipe network leakage Rate, it is 8% or so that 2010 actual, and 2020 forcasted years, 2030 forcasted years are respectively increased to 7%, 6%.Predict 2020 forcasted years The more annual water requirements in the whole city are 13.57 hundred million m3, the m of 50% fraction water requirement 13.8 hundred million3, 75% fraction water requirement 11.33 hundred million m3;The more annual water requirements in the 2030 forcasted years whole cities are 13.88 hundred million m3, 50% fraction water requirement be 13.29 hundred million m3, 75% protects The m of card rate water requirement 14.14 hundred million3.Refer to table 11.
The Chengde County Subdivision Water Demand Prediction outcome table unit of table 11:Ten thousand m3
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.
Analysis on its rationality is carried out to the above-mentioned water demand forecast achievement in Chengde:
The situation that increase becomes steady is presented in Chengde town dweller life, government utility and urban ecology water consumption, industrial Water speedup gradually reduces, and agricultural water total amount is in reduction trend, and total water consumption is under the drive that industry and urban water increase The situation that increase becomes steady is presented.
Analysis on its rationality is carried out to water demand forecast achievement and is based primarily upon five aspects:
1) expanding economy speed;Due to fast development economic from now on, the particularly industrial proportion of secondary industry it is relative Stable, for industrial water under conditions of unit consumption constantly reduces, water requirement still has the growth of an appropriateness, and prediction industrial water demand increases The growth rate of two period industrial added values of long 2010~the year two thousand twenty of rate and 2020~the year two thousand thirty is respectively 7.0% and 6.5%. Industrial water demand coefficient of elasticity is respectively 0.52,0.24, is analyzed from coefficient of elasticity, water demand forecast achievement is higher, but considers Chengde City's water utilization rate is relatively low, and with the development in Capital Circle economic zone, industry has faster growth over a period to come It is rational.
2) estimated industrial water consumption;It is expected that 23m of the industrial water consumption from present situation per capita3Bring up to the year two thousand twenty and the year two thousand thirty 51m3And 48m3;262.9m of the comprehensive water-using amount from present situation per capita3The 342.7m of the year two thousand twenty is adjusted to respectively3And the year two thousand thirty 292.1m3, changed greatly per capita between 2010~the year two thousand twenty of water consumption index, but be far below national present situation comprehensive water-using amount per capita 460m3Water using level, also below Main Developed Countries present situation, comprehensive water-using amount is horizontal per capita.
3) Live Use Water Quota predicts whether to meet internal and international water saving standard;Live Use Water Quota prediction by domestic and International standard is weighed and is at low-level, meets the standard of " a water-saving society ", compared with northern China Provinces (regions), all accords with Close Water-saving Agriculture requirement.
4) water demand of ecological environment demand-decided model over a period to come;Water demand of ecological environment over a period to come " for Need calmly ", " Lowest ecological water demand " is reached by water transfer between basin even in distant view forcasted years, belongs to a relatively low need Ask.
5) the control requirement of " three red lines " whether is met;" three red lines " is specific:No.1 Central File is clear and definite within 2011 It is proposed, carry out most stringent of water resources management system, establish water total amount control, water-use efficiency control and Water Functional Zone limitation and receive Dirty " trinomial pricing model ", correspondingly delimit water total amount, water-use efficiency and Water Functional Zone limitation and receive dirty " three red lines ".Put forth effort to change The outstanding problems such as current water resource is excessively developed, water waste, water pollution are serious, make water resource key element in economic layout, industry Turn into important binding character, controlling, guiding index in development, structural adjustment, firmly contain water waste.
After analyzing the reasonability of water requirement, according to water price regulatory mechanism, regional water resources are regulated and controled, from And rational utilization of water resources, the support area sustainable development of socio-economy;Strengthen resident's consciousness of saving water, implement city dweller per capita Live Use Water Quota system;The application of water-saving technology in the industrial production is promoted, steps up municipal sewage plant and Treated sewage reusing Facilities Construction, under conditions of effluent of municipal sewage plant water quality is ensured, municipal middle water reclamation rate is improved, realize that municipal water provides Source is long-term, effective, sustainable use.
Compared with prior art, it is determined that Water Demand Prediction principle, will be according to social economic development of region target and index Prediction needs moisture as industrial water requirements prediction, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction four Individual part, determine that region gross water requirement is included in public supply mains leak rate, water system dynamic process, realization pair are needed by analysis Regional water resources need water trend prediction, and the reasonability of water requirement is analyzed, and according to water price regulatory mechanism, regional water is provided Source is regulated and controled, so as to rational utilization of water resources, the support area sustainable development of socio-economy;Strengthen resident's consciousness of saving water, fall Real city dweller Live Use Water Quota system per capita;The application of water-saving technology in the industrial production is promoted, is stepped up at municipal sewage Factory and Treated sewage reusing Facilities Construction are managed, under conditions of effluent of municipal sewage plant water quality is ensured, improves municipal middle water reuse Rate, realize city water resource it is long-term, effectively, sustainable use.
An example of the present invention is described in detail above, but content is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, no The practical range for limiting the present invention can be considered as.Any changes and modifications in accordance with the scope of the present application, Should still it belong within the patent covering scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, tertiary industry Industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.
2. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that needed in the step 1 Water refers to varying level yearly water consumption, is the reasonable water requirement in the case where adapting to the requirement of national economic development overall goal, being can Water requirement under the conditions of sustainable utilization.
A kind of 3. regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that work in the step 2 Industry Water Demand Prediction refers to based on present situation industrial structure, production technology etc., considers the water saving potential in varying level year, point electricity Power industry, general industry, village industry are predicted respectively;
Industrial water requirements calculates to be carried out by ten thousand yuan of industrial added values and analysis industry water consumption quota in the varying level year predicted Analysis calculates;
Industrial water consumption IW=QY, wherein Q are ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota (m3/ ten thousand yuan), Y is ten thousand yuan of industry then Value added is (ten thousand yuan).
4. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that raw in the step 2 Living to need water to include urban life and the class of life in the countryside two, urban life water containing government utility, the big life in rural area includes livestock use Water, life water demand forecast is predicted using civil water quota method per capita in step 2;
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);Po is with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is net quota (the L/ people of domestic water d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
A kind of 5. regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the step 2 middle peasant Industry water requirement, which mainly includes planting industry, woods fruit and grassland irrigation, fishery, needs water.
6. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 5, it is characterised in that planting industry, woods fruit and grass Crop structure is by storing, drawing, the job facilities such as carrying and supplied water to farmland, forest land, grassland, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural fills Irrigate water demand forecast and use quota method;
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet jj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2);gNet jFor i The forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (hm of m3/ ten thousand2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
7. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 5, it is characterised in that fishery needs water to include supporting Grow evaporation from water surface, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss.
A kind of 8. regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 4, it is characterised in that institute in the step 2 Stating water demand of ecological environment has a relativity, the ecological environment under different ecological environments, different ecological environmental protection strategies Water requirement is different.
9. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 8, it is characterised in that in the step 3 really Determining region gross water requirement needs to be included in public supply mains leak rate.
10. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 9, it is characterised in that needed in the step 3 The analysis on its rationality of water is based primarily upon five aspects:Expanding economy speed;It is expected that industrial water consumption;Live Use Water Quota is pre- Whether survey meets internal and international water saving standard;Water demand of ecological environment demand-decided model over a period to come;Whether " three are met The control requirement of red line ".
CN201710832337.2A 2017-09-15 2017-09-15 A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method Pending CN107808211A (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201710832337.2A CN107808211A (en) 2017-09-15 2017-09-15 A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201710832337.2A CN107808211A (en) 2017-09-15 2017-09-15 A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN107808211A true CN107808211A (en) 2018-03-16

Family

ID=61583928

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN201710832337.2A Pending CN107808211A (en) 2017-09-15 2017-09-15 A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN107808211A (en)

Cited By (15)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108537465A (en) * 2018-04-23 2018-09-14 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 The method for calculating Water Requirement in urban rivers and lakes
CN109685256A (en) * 2018-12-13 2019-04-26 武汉大学 A kind of basin water dynamic optimization distribution method towards overall control
CN110199843A (en) * 2019-07-16 2019-09-06 太原市水利技术推广服务站 A kind of long-range irrigation monitor control system
CN110288209A (en) * 2019-06-11 2019-09-27 北京师范大学 Water Resources Allocation method, apparatus, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN110458357A (en) * 2019-08-12 2019-11-15 中国水利水电科学研究院 Industrial drought loss forecasting and appraisal procedure
CN110852477A (en) * 2019-10-08 2020-02-28 华中科技大学 Production water demand prediction method based on system dynamics
CN111401732A (en) * 2020-03-13 2020-07-10 中国水利水电科学研究院 Hierarchical identification method for water resource supply and demand situation
CN111985798A (en) * 2020-08-10 2020-11-24 河海大学 Water shortage type northern city multi-condition water resource supply and demand balance calculation analysis method
CN111996980A (en) * 2020-07-10 2020-11-27 河海大学 Method for balanced intensive utilization of regional water resources
CN112085317A (en) * 2020-07-28 2020-12-15 中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司 Water-shortage city multi-water-source fine matching method for water supply management requirements
CN113344449A (en) * 2021-07-02 2021-09-03 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 Method for predicting monthly-scale industrial water demand
CN113469440A (en) * 2021-07-02 2021-10-01 河海大学 Method for predicting monthly-scale water demand for life
CN113888046A (en) * 2021-11-03 2022-01-04 河南省水利科学研究院 County-area agricultural initial water right accounting and distributing method
CN116205361A (en) * 2023-03-07 2023-06-02 河海大学 Industrial water efficiency grading prediction method based on matching degree
CN117094441A (en) * 2023-08-24 2023-11-21 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 Water supply prediction model establishment method, water supply prediction device and electronic equipment

Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103218536A (en) * 2013-04-26 2013-07-24 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 Great-leap-forward development area water demand prediction method
CN105512832A (en) * 2015-12-29 2016-04-20 杭州电子科技大学 Urban water demand combined predication method based on time-varying weight minimum variance

Patent Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103218536A (en) * 2013-04-26 2013-07-24 珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院 Great-leap-forward development area water demand prediction method
CN105512832A (en) * 2015-12-29 2016-04-20 杭州电子科技大学 Urban water demand combined predication method based on time-varying weight minimum variance

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
马滇珍 等: "全国供需水预测", 《水利规划》 *

Cited By (22)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108537465A (en) * 2018-04-23 2018-09-14 中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司 The method for calculating Water Requirement in urban rivers and lakes
CN109685256A (en) * 2018-12-13 2019-04-26 武汉大学 A kind of basin water dynamic optimization distribution method towards overall control
CN110288209A (en) * 2019-06-11 2019-09-27 北京师范大学 Water Resources Allocation method, apparatus, electronic equipment and storage medium
CN110199843B (en) * 2019-07-16 2021-05-18 太原市水利技术推广服务站 Remote irrigation monitoring control system
CN110199843A (en) * 2019-07-16 2019-09-06 太原市水利技术推广服务站 A kind of long-range irrigation monitor control system
CN110458357A (en) * 2019-08-12 2019-11-15 中国水利水电科学研究院 Industrial drought loss forecasting and appraisal procedure
CN110852477A (en) * 2019-10-08 2020-02-28 华中科技大学 Production water demand prediction method based on system dynamics
CN110852477B (en) * 2019-10-08 2022-09-27 华中科技大学 Production water demand prediction method based on system dynamics
CN111401732A (en) * 2020-03-13 2020-07-10 中国水利水电科学研究院 Hierarchical identification method for water resource supply and demand situation
CN111996980A (en) * 2020-07-10 2020-11-27 河海大学 Method for balanced intensive utilization of regional water resources
CN112085317A (en) * 2020-07-28 2020-12-15 中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司 Water-shortage city multi-water-source fine matching method for water supply management requirements
CN111985798A (en) * 2020-08-10 2020-11-24 河海大学 Water shortage type northern city multi-condition water resource supply and demand balance calculation analysis method
CN113344449B (en) * 2021-07-02 2023-08-29 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 Method for predicting monthly industrial water demand
CN113469440A (en) * 2021-07-02 2021-10-01 河海大学 Method for predicting monthly-scale water demand for life
CN113344449A (en) * 2021-07-02 2021-09-03 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 Method for predicting monthly-scale industrial water demand
CN113469440B (en) * 2021-07-02 2023-11-14 河海大学 Method for predicting monthly scale living water demand
CN113888046A (en) * 2021-11-03 2022-01-04 河南省水利科学研究院 County-area agricultural initial water right accounting and distributing method
CN113888046B (en) * 2021-11-03 2024-05-14 河南省水利科学研究院 County-area agricultural initial water right accounting and distribution method
CN116205361A (en) * 2023-03-07 2023-06-02 河海大学 Industrial water efficiency grading prediction method based on matching degree
CN116205361B (en) * 2023-03-07 2024-02-23 河海大学 Industrial water efficiency grading prediction method based on matching degree
CN117094441A (en) * 2023-08-24 2023-11-21 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 Water supply prediction model establishment method, water supply prediction device and electronic equipment
CN117094441B (en) * 2023-08-24 2024-04-26 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 Water supply prediction model establishment method, water supply prediction device and electronic equipment

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
CN107808211A (en) A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method
Ahmad et al. Water-energy nexus and energy efficiency: A systematic analysis of urban water systems
Dong et al. Regional water footprint evaluation in China: A case of Liaoning
Lu et al. The energy-food-water nexus: Water footprint of Henan-Hubei-Hunan in China
Kendy et al. Policies drain the North China Plain: Agricultural policy and groundwater depletion in Luancheng County, 1949-2000
López-Gunn et al. Implications of the modernization of irrigation systems
Chini et al. The changing virtual water trade network of the European electric grid
CN102254237A (en) Method for predicting and dynamically regulating regional water resource supply-demand situations
Zhang et al. Linking physical water consumption with virtual water consumption: Methodology, application and implications
CN107767048A (en) A kind of water resource stratification collocation method and allocation models
Da-ping et al. Discussion on the demand management of water resources
Xu et al. Inequality of water allocation and policy response considering virtual water trade: a case study of Lanzhou city, China
Li et al. Sustainability of water and energy use for food production based on optimal allocation of agricultural irrigation water
Jiang et al. Urban water resources quota management: the core strategy for water demand management in China
Dong et al. Controlled irrigation for paddy rice in China
Arlosoroff Managing scarce water: recent Israeli experience
Lei et al. Study on ecological allocation of mine water in mining area based on long-term rainfall forecast
Lamaddalena et al. Participatory water management in Italy: case study of the Consortium “Bonifica della Capitanata”
Mazzeo Analysis of strategic natural resources: the FEW Nexus model applied to Irpinia (Italy) and implications for regional planning
CN111985798A (en) Water shortage type northern city multi-condition water resource supply and demand balance calculation analysis method
Singh et al. Water policy in India: A review
Spiller et al. Mapping diversity of urban metabolic functions: a planning approach for more resilient cities
Yang et al. Integrated agricultural irrigation management technique in the arid inland area, China
Besbes et al. Elements for a Conceptual Model of National Water Security
Liu et al. Forecasting on China’s water demand by industry in 2021

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination