CN107808211A - A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to hydraulic engineering field, more particularly to a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, including step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the prediction of tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.Beneficial effects of the present invention:Water requirement will be predicted according to social economic development of region target and index, water requirement is divided into five fractional predictions, determines that region gross water requirement is included in public supply mains leak rate, and water system dynamic process be needed by analysis, realizing needs water trend prediction to regional water resources;The reasonability of water requirement is analyzed, according to three red lines and water price regulatory mechanism, regional water resources regulated and controled, so as to realize the region even water resources rational use of basin aspect.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to hydraulic engineering field, more particularly to a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method.
Background technology
Water Resources Demand Forecast is one of element task of water resource administrative system.Current world economy high speed development,
Water resources crisis is increasingly shown especially, how to predict that the water requirement in future is endangered to avoid the waste of investment or reduce future with water exactly
The generation of machine turns into an important research topic, has carried out extensive research both at home and abroad.
At home, China has carried out first time water resources survey and water resource Utilization assessment work the eighties in last century
Make.According to socio-economic development situation at that time, with 2000 for predicting long-term forcasted years, it is proposed that national, each basin piece and each
The water demand forecast achievement and research report of three levels of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities.After this, difference department in China's mutually goes on
Gone influences more far-reaching program results several times.In April, 2002, China organize water resource assets authorized strength work,
Planning is according to the Scientific Outlook on Development and the general requirement built a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society.
Following water demand is related to many factors such as economy, society, is a complicated change procedure, predicts in addition
The limitation of method, water supply and demand is caused to hold inaccurate.Past many departments prediction result all or will be by
It is proved to be obvious bigger than normal, causes the misleading to varying degrees to planning for water resources development and water supply project.Meanwhile in many regional faces
Face today of water shortage situation, how for social economy-water resources complex system characteristic, proposition meet regional water resources change
The water demand prediction method of feature, successfully manage the shortage of water resources crisis that climate change is brought.China integrates in basin water resources
In planning, also clearly propose to take into full account influence and challenge that climate change is brought, take into full account various possible influences.Cause
This, increases, socio-economic development situation of change according to Future Climate scene, population, scientific forecasting future water resource supply and demand change
Process simultaneously proposes that corresponding regulation measure has turned into the major issue of current China's water resources management.
The content of the invention
To solve the above problems, the present invention provides a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method.
Technical scheme:A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the
Three industry Water Demand Predictions, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.
Further, water requirement refers to varying level yearly water consumption in the step 1, is to adapt to the national economic development
Reasonable water requirement under overall goal requirement, is the water requirement under the conditions of sustainable use.
Further, industrial water requirements prediction refers to present situation industrial structure, production technology etc. for base in the step 2
Plinth, consider the water saving potential in varying level year, divide power industry, general industry, village industry to be predicted respectively;
Industrial water requirements calculates ten thousand yuan of industrial added values and analysis industry water consumption quota in the varying level year by predicting
Carry out analysis calculating;
Industrial water consumption IW=QY, wherein Q are ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota (m3/ ten thousand yuan), Y is industrial then
Ten thousand yuan of value addeds are (ten thousand yuan).
Further, life needs moisture urban life and the class of life in the countryside two in the step 2, and urban life is containing public
Cause water, the big life in rural area include livestock water, and life water demand forecast is entered using civil water quota method per capita in step 2
Row prediction;
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);Po is with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is the net quota (L/ of domestic water
People d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
Further, agricultural water consumption is mainly irrigated including planting industry, woods fruit and grassland in the step 2, fishery needs
Water.
Further, planting industry, woods fruit and grassland crop structure are by storing, drawing, the job facilities such as carrying to farmland, woods
Ground, grassland are supplied water, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural irrigation water demand forecast uses quota method;
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet j/ηj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2);
gNet jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (m3/ ten thousand hm2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
Further, fishery needs water to include water surface for aquaculture evaporation, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss.
Further, water demand of ecological environment described in the step 2 has relativity, different ecological environments, difference
Ecological environmental protection strategy under water demand of ecological environment be different.
Further, determine that region gross water requirement needs to be included in public supply mains leak rate in the step 3.
Further, the analysis on its rationality of water requirement is based primarily upon five aspects in the step 3:Expanding economy speed
Degree;It is expected that industrial water consumption;Live Use Water Quota predicts whether to meet internal and international water saving standard;Water demand of ecological environment exists
Demand-decided model in regular period;Whether the control requirement of " three red line " is met.
Present invention has the advantages that:It is industrial water demand that moisture, which will be needed, according to social economic development of region target and index prediction
Measure prediction, the prediction of tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction five
Individual part, determine that region gross water requirement is included in public supply mains leak rate, water system dynamic process, realization pair are needed by analysis
Regional water resources need water trend prediction, and the reasonability of water requirement is analyzed, and regulate and control machine according to " three red lines " and water price
Regional water resources are regulated and controled by system, so as to realize the region even water resources rational use of basin aspect, support area economy
Social sustainable development.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the FB(flow block) of the present invention.
Embodiment
A kind of embodiment of the present invention is explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 be the present invention FB(flow block), a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, it is characterised in that including following step
Suddenly:
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;Water requirement refers to varying level yearly water consumption, is to adapt to national economy
The reasonable water requirement developed under overall goal requirement, is the water requirement under the conditions of sustainable use.
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the
Three industry Water Demand Predictions, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
(1) industrial water requirements prediction refers to based on present situation industrial structure, production technology etc., considers varying level year
Water saving potential, power industry, general industry, village industry is divided to be predicted respectively.
Industrial water requirements calculates ten thousand yuan of industrial added values by predicting varying level year and analyzes industry water consumption quota
Row analysis calculates;
Industrial water consumption IW=QY, wherein Q are ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota (m3/ ten thousand yuan), Y is industrial then
Ten thousand yuan of value addeds are (ten thousand yuan).
(2) tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction;The tertiary industry includes business's drink industry and service trade, the former tertiary industry are divided in greatly
In industry.
(3) domestic water demand is predicted;Life needs water to include urban life and the class of life in the countryside two.Urban life contains public thing
Industry water, drinking water in rural China include livestock water, and life water demand forecast is carried out using daily water consumption method per capita in step 2
Prediction.
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);Po is with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is the net quota (L/ of domestic water
People d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
(4) agricultural water consumption is predicted;Agricultural water consumption, which mainly includes planting industry, woods fruit and grassland irrigation, fishery, needs water.
In step 2 planting industry, woods fruit and grassland crop structure be by store, draw, carry etc. job facilities to farmland, forest land,
Grassland is supplied water, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural irrigation water demand forecast uses quota method;
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet j/ηj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2);
gNet jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (m3/ ten thousand hm2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
Fishery needs water to include water surface for aquaculture evaporation, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss in step 2.
(5) water demand of ecological environment is predicted;Water demand of ecological environment has a relativity, different ecological environments, different
Water demand of ecological environment under ecological environmental protection strategy is different.
According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, 5 parts are divided into, industrial water requirements is pre-
Survey, the prediction of tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction, division are closed
Reason, convenient prediction.
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;Determine that region gross water requirement needs to be included in public supply mains leak rate.
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.The analysis on its rationality of water requirement is based primarily upon five aspects:Economic hair
Open up speed;It is expected that industrial water consumption;Live Use Water Quota predicts whether to meet internal and international water saving standard;Ecological environment water demand
Measure demand-decided model over a period to come;Whether the control requirement of " three red line " is met.
Embodiment 1
By taking Chengde as an example, Chengde water demand amount is predicted.Water demand analyze forecasting research with
In year on the basis of 2010, using the year two thousand twenty as medium term planning forcasted years, the year two thousand thirty is as long term planning forcasted years.
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;Water requirement refers to varying level yearly water consumption, is to adapt to national economy
The reasonable water requirement developed under overall goal requirement, is the water requirement under the conditions of sustainable use.Prediction principle mainly considers:
(1) it is combined with Levels of Social Economic Development.Using each forcasted years socio-economic development index as foundation, implementing to hold
The principle of supervention exhibition, demand of each industry development of make overall plans society, economy, ecology, environment etc. to water.
(2) consider the restrictive function that water scarcity increases to water requirement, implement water-saving policy comprehensively.
(3) consider that socialist market economy system, economic restructuring and scientific and technological progress will need the influence of water to future.
(4) pay attention to present situation basic data, law-analysing and trend analysis, water demand forecast symbol are carried out with reference to history actual conditions
Close each regional characteristics.
(5) reasonable disposition water resource, overall arrangement life, production, ecological environment and Water Consumption in Agriculture.
It is reasonable to predict that principle is set, water demand analysis forecasting research year on the basis of 2010, using the year two thousand twenty as
Medium term planning forcasted years, the year two thousand thirty as long term planning forcasted years, are advantageous to the medium-term and long-term plans of water demand.
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, the
Three industry Water Demand Predictions, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
(1) industry (industry, construction industry) Water Demand Prediction
Industrial water requirements is predicted based on present situation industrial structure, production technology etc., considers that the water saving in varying level year is dived
Power, power industry, general industry, village industry is divided to be predicted respectively.
Industrial water requirements calculates ten thousand yuan of industrial added values and analysis industry water consumption quota in the varying level year by predicting
Carry out analysis calculating.If ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota Q (m3/ ten thousand yuan), industrial ten thousand yuan of value addeds are Y (ten thousand yuan) then,
Then industrial water consumption IW=QY.
Ten thousand yuan of Chengde industrial added value average consumption 40m in 20103/ ten thousand yuan.With reference to each administrative area difference water-saving
Flat and Different Industries developing direction, predicts each forcasted years water consumption quota by different administrative areas, refers to table 1 respectively.
The Chengde County Subdivision industrial water demand quota prediction outcome table unit of table 1:m3/ ten thousand yuan
Administrative area | 2020 forcasted years | 2030 forcasted years |
Weichang | 19 | 10 |
Longhua County | 32 | 17 |
Pingquan County | 24 | 13 |
Chengde County | 29 | 16 |
Xinglong County | 31 | 16 |
Kuan Cheng counties | 16 | 9 |
Fengning County | 22 | 12 |
Luanping County | 21 | 11 |
3rd area and industrial zone | 35 | 25 |
According to the water consumption quota of prediction and industrial added value situation, varying level year County Subdivision industrial water requirements is analyzed,
2020 horizontal yearly water consumptions are 202,250,000 m3, 2030 horizontal yearly water consumptions are 228,570,000 m3.Achievement is shown in Table 2.
The Chengde County Subdivision industrial water requirements prediction unit of table 2:Ten thousand m3
(2) tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction
The tertiary industry includes business and drinks industry and service trade, and the former tertiary industry is divided in big industry.Traveled for Chengde
Industry is more flourishing, the tertiary industry with water ratio it is higher in the case of, the tertiary industry must individually be considered.Tertiary industry water
The determination of quota is complex, with reference to Hebei province's aggregate level and combines city statistics comprehensive analysis in recent years, 2010
The comprehensive water-using of the tertiary industry is rated for 40m3/ ten thousand yuan, by implementing the measures such as transformation on economy of water cousumption, it is contemplated that by 2020 be 33m3/
Wan Yuan, the year two thousand thirty 20m3/ ten thousand yuan, it is 82,380,000 m to predict 2020 forcasted years tertiary industry water requirements accordingly3, 2030 forcasted years
Water requirement is 120,650,000 m3.It is shown in Table 3.
The Chengde County Subdivision tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction outcome table unit of table 3:Ten thousand m3
(3) domestic water demand is predicted
Life needs moisture urban life and the class of life in the countryside two, urban life water containing government utility, the big life bag in rural area
Livestock water is included, water demand forecast is predicted using civil water quota method per capita.
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);P0For with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is the net quota (L/ of domestic water
People d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
The factor that the method considers is to use water population and water demand quota.Water demand quota is using present situation water survey data as base
Plinth, situation of change over the years is analyzed, consider varying level year town dweller's per capita income level, water price level, water-demand management, water saving
Utensil promotion and popularization situation, domestic water custom etc., drafts its corresponding water consumption quota.
Net quota is combined and held with reference to the established water supply standard of construction department, domestic similar regional Live Use Water Quota
The actual conditions in moral city, each forcasted years cities and towns and the net quota of urban residents' domestic water are drafted respectively.
The present situation city population lives water consumption quota average out to 100L/ day for human beings, it is contemplated that living standard improves and water saving is arranged
Apply the factors such as raising, it is predicted that 2020 forcasted years water consumption quotas are the 110L/ day for human beings, and 2030 forcasted years water consumption quotas are 120 L/
The day for human beings.
Present situation people in the countryside Live Use Water Quota is the 45L/ day for human beings, it is contemplated that living standard improves and water saving measures improve
Etc. factor, it is predicted that 2020 forcasted years water consumption quotas are the 50L/ day for human beings, and 2030 forcasted years water consumption quotas are the 60L/ day for human beings.
Chengde present situation government utility water consumption quota is the 45L/ day for human beings, it is contemplated that social development needs, and determines 2020 water
Non-leap year level is the 50L/ day for human beings, and 2030 forcasted years level is the 60L/ day for human beings.
Livestock is predicted with water by draught animal and small livestock civil water quota method.It is shown in Table 4.Each county's Water Demand Prediction achievement is shown in Table
5。
The animal husbandry water consumption quota of table 4 predicts unit:L/ head days
Species | 2020 forcasted years | 2030 forcasted years |
Draught animal | 50 | 40 |
Small livestock | 13 | 7 |
The Chengde County Subdivision domestic water demand prediction outcome table unit of table 5:Ten thousand m3
(4) agricultural water consumption is predicted
Agricultural is that the primary industry needs water mainly to include planting industry, woods fruit and grassland irrigation, the moisturizing of the fishing pool etc..
Planting industry, woods fruit and grassland crop structure are by storing, drawing, the job facilities such as carrying and supplied to farmland, forest land, grassland
Water, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural irrigation water demand forecast uses quota method, is related to the net irrigation quota of all kinds crop, fills
Irrigate three key indexs of Water application rate and irrigated area.
Agricultural production irrigation requirement considers water efficiency of irrigation, and it is 0.45 or so, 2020,2030 that 2010 actual
Forcasted years develop the development of overall development level and water-saving irrigation measure according to country and water resources in Hebei Province, press respectively
0.55th, 0.69 meter.Irrigation norm takes into full account the irrigation water water coefficient after water saving, respectively by normal flow year 50% and low flow year
75% two kind of fraction analysis.
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet j/ηj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2);
gNet jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (m3/ ten thousand hm2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
Planting industry irrigation requirement includes paddy field, crop field and field of vegetables irrigation requirement, and wherein paddy field, crop field water demand forecast is pressed
The above method is calculated.Field of vegetables Water Demand Prediction, including commodity field of vegetables need water and rural area field of vegetables to need water two parts.Irrigation norm
It is shown in Table 6.Agricultural water consumption prediction is shown in Table 7.
The Chengde planting industry of table 6, woods fruit and grassland irrigation norm prediction outcome table unit:m3/ mu
The Chengde County Subdivision planting industry of table 7, woods fruit and grassland irrigation requirement prediction outcome table unit:Ten thousand m3
Fishery needs water to include water surface for aquaculture evaporation, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss, with reference to real in recent years
Border water using level determines fishing pool water consumption quota.Fishery, animal husbandry water consumption quota are shown in Table 8.
The Chengde fishery of table 8, animal husbandry water consumption quota prediction unit:m3/ mu
Chengde present situation primary industry the year two thousand twenty, the year two thousand thirty water requirement are shown in Table 9.
The Chengde County Subdivision agricultural water consumption prediction outcome table unit of table 9:Ten thousand m3
(5) water demand of ecological environment is predicted
Water demand of ecological environment has relativity, and different ecological environments, different ecological environmental protection strategies are (as improved
Strategy, maintain strategy etc.) under water demand of ecological environment be different.
When carrying out ecological environment water demand prediction, urban greening is only accounted for water, the moisturizing of river lake, environmental sanitation water
Deng considering respectively for this ecological environment water demand prediction point greening water requirement, river lake moisturizing water requirement, environmental sanitation water requirement.
Using unit plane, water demand quota multiplies green coverage and tried to achieve greening water requirement for many years, by norm with reference to domestic and international water using level
It is general to choose (0.5~1m3/m2·a).Chengde present situation greening water demand quota is 0.6m3/m2A, consider that social development needs
And the extension of city size, 2020 forcasted years, 2030 forcasted years quota are still 0.6m3/m2·a。
The moisturizing of river lake multiplies river lake moisturizing area using unit area moisturizing quota and tried to achieve.Quota reference area weather conditions and
The based process measure in general river lake water domain, (5~100,000 m are chosen by norm under general seepage control measure3/hm2·a).Chengde present situation
The moisturizing of river lake is rated for 50,000 m3/hm2A, predict that 2020 forcasted years and 2030 forcasted years quota still maintain 50,000 m3/hm2·a。
Environmental sanitation moisturizing Water Demand Prediction using unit plane, defend area and try to achieve for many years by water demand quota multiplication ring.Chengde present situation environmental sanitation
It is rated for 0.73m3/m2A, 2020 forcasted years and 2030 forcasted years quota remain unchanged.
Quota and the varying level yearly correlation area index of prediction more than, analyzing 2020 horizontal yearly water consumptions is
59650000 m3, it is 84,040,000 m to 2030 horizontal yearly water consumptions3Chengde County Subdivision water demand of ecological environment is shown in Table 10.
The Chengde County Subdivision water demand of ecological environment prediction outcome table unit of table 10:Ten thousand m3
Administrative area | The year two thousand twenty | The year two thousand thirty |
Weichang | 117 | 171 |
Longhua County | 733 | 1078 |
Pingquan County | 663 | 971 |
Chengde County | 1957 | 2627 |
Xinglong County | 219 | 230 |
Kuan Cheng counties | 152 | 246 |
Fengning County | 458 | 607 |
Luanping County | 686 | 1002 |
3rd area (contain industrial zone) | 981 | 1472 |
The whole city | 5965 | 8404 |
According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, be divided into 5 part industrial water requirements predictions,
Tertiary industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction, division is reasonable,
Convenient prediction.
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;Determine that region gross water requirement needs to consider that urban water supply considers pipe network leakage
Rate, it is 8% or so that 2010 actual, and 2020 forcasted years, 2030 forcasted years are respectively increased to 7%, 6%.Predict 2020 forcasted years
The more annual water requirements in the whole city are 13.57 hundred million m3, the m of 50% fraction water requirement 13.8 hundred million3, 75% fraction water requirement 11.33 hundred million
m3;The more annual water requirements in the 2030 forcasted years whole cities are 13.88 hundred million m3, 50% fraction water requirement be 13.29 hundred million m3, 75% protects
The m of card rate water requirement 14.14 hundred million3.Refer to table 11.
The Chengde County Subdivision Water Demand Prediction outcome table unit of table 11:Ten thousand m3
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.
Analysis on its rationality is carried out to the above-mentioned water demand forecast achievement in Chengde:
The situation that increase becomes steady is presented in Chengde town dweller life, government utility and urban ecology water consumption, industrial
Water speedup gradually reduces, and agricultural water total amount is in reduction trend, and total water consumption is under the drive that industry and urban water increase
The situation that increase becomes steady is presented.
Analysis on its rationality is carried out to water demand forecast achievement and is based primarily upon five aspects:
1) expanding economy speed;Due to fast development economic from now on, the particularly industrial proportion of secondary industry it is relative
Stable, for industrial water under conditions of unit consumption constantly reduces, water requirement still has the growth of an appropriateness, and prediction industrial water demand increases
The growth rate of two period industrial added values of long 2010~the year two thousand twenty of rate and 2020~the year two thousand thirty is respectively 7.0% and 6.5%.
Industrial water demand coefficient of elasticity is respectively 0.52,0.24, is analyzed from coefficient of elasticity, water demand forecast achievement is higher, but considers Chengde
City's water utilization rate is relatively low, and with the development in Capital Circle economic zone, industry has faster growth over a period to come
It is rational.
2) estimated industrial water consumption;It is expected that 23m of the industrial water consumption from present situation per capita3Bring up to the year two thousand twenty and the year two thousand thirty
51m3And 48m3;262.9m of the comprehensive water-using amount from present situation per capita3The 342.7m of the year two thousand twenty is adjusted to respectively3And the year two thousand thirty
292.1m3, changed greatly per capita between 2010~the year two thousand twenty of water consumption index, but be far below national present situation comprehensive water-using amount per capita
460m3Water using level, also below Main Developed Countries present situation, comprehensive water-using amount is horizontal per capita.
3) Live Use Water Quota predicts whether to meet internal and international water saving standard;Live Use Water Quota prediction by domestic and
International standard is weighed and is at low-level, meets the standard of " a water-saving society ", compared with northern China Provinces (regions), all accords with
Close Water-saving Agriculture requirement.
4) water demand of ecological environment demand-decided model over a period to come;Water demand of ecological environment over a period to come " for
Need calmly ", " Lowest ecological water demand " is reached by water transfer between basin even in distant view forcasted years, belongs to a relatively low need
Ask.
5) the control requirement of " three red lines " whether is met;" three red lines " is specific:No.1 Central File is clear and definite within 2011
It is proposed, carry out most stringent of water resources management system, establish water total amount control, water-use efficiency control and Water Functional Zone limitation and receive
Dirty " trinomial pricing model ", correspondingly delimit water total amount, water-use efficiency and Water Functional Zone limitation and receive dirty " three red lines ".Put forth effort to change
The outstanding problems such as current water resource is excessively developed, water waste, water pollution are serious, make water resource key element in economic layout, industry
Turn into important binding character, controlling, guiding index in development, structural adjustment, firmly contain water waste.
After analyzing the reasonability of water requirement, according to water price regulatory mechanism, regional water resources are regulated and controled, from
And rational utilization of water resources, the support area sustainable development of socio-economy;Strengthen resident's consciousness of saving water, implement city dweller per capita
Live Use Water Quota system;The application of water-saving technology in the industrial production is promoted, steps up municipal sewage plant and Treated sewage reusing
Facilities Construction, under conditions of effluent of municipal sewage plant water quality is ensured, municipal middle water reclamation rate is improved, realize that municipal water provides
Source is long-term, effective, sustainable use.
Compared with prior art, it is determined that Water Demand Prediction principle, will be according to social economic development of region target and index
Prediction needs moisture as industrial water requirements prediction, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction four
Individual part, determine that region gross water requirement is included in public supply mains leak rate, water system dynamic process, realization pair are needed by analysis
Regional water resources need water trend prediction, and the reasonability of water requirement is analyzed, and according to water price regulatory mechanism, regional water is provided
Source is regulated and controled, so as to rational utilization of water resources, the support area sustainable development of socio-economy;Strengthen resident's consciousness of saving water, fall
Real city dweller Live Use Water Quota system per capita;The application of water-saving technology in the industrial production is promoted, is stepped up at municipal sewage
Factory and Treated sewage reusing Facilities Construction are managed, under conditions of effluent of municipal sewage plant water quality is ensured, improves municipal middle water reuse
Rate, realize city water resource it is long-term, effectively, sustainable use.
An example of the present invention is described in detail above, but content is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, no
The practical range for limiting the present invention can be considered as.Any changes and modifications in accordance with the scope of the present application,
Should still it belong within the patent covering scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
Step 1:Determine Water Demand Prediction principle;
Step 2:According to social economic development of region target and index prediction water requirement, including industrial water requirements prediction, tertiary industry
Industry Water Demand Prediction, domestic water demand prediction, agricultural water consumption prediction, water demand of ecological environment prediction;
Step 3:Determine region gross water requirement;
Step 4:The analysis on its rationality of water requirement.
2. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that needed in the step 1
Water refers to varying level yearly water consumption, is the reasonable water requirement in the case where adapting to the requirement of national economic development overall goal, being can
Water requirement under the conditions of sustainable utilization.
A kind of 3. regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that work in the step 2
Industry Water Demand Prediction refers to based on present situation industrial structure, production technology etc., considers the water saving potential in varying level year, point electricity
Power industry, general industry, village industry are predicted respectively;
Industrial water requirements calculates to be carried out by ten thousand yuan of industrial added values and analysis industry water consumption quota in the varying level year predicted
Analysis calculates;
Industrial water consumption IW=QY, wherein Q are ten thousand yuan of industrial added value water consumption quota (m3/ ten thousand yuan), Y is ten thousand yuan of industry then
Value added is (ten thousand yuan).
4. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that raw in the step 2
Living to need water to include urban life and the class of life in the countryside two, urban life water containing government utility, the big life in rural area includes livestock use
Water, life water demand forecast is predicted using civil water quota method per capita in step 2;
Calculation formula is as follows:
LWOnly=P0×LQ×365/1000
LWHair=LWOnly/ η=P0×LQ×365/1000η
In formula:LWOnlyFor life net water requirement (ten thousand m3);Po is with water population (ten thousand people);LQ is net quota (the L/ people of domestic water
d);LWHairFor life hair water requirement (ten thousand m3);η is domestic water supplying system Water application rate.
A kind of 5. regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the step 2 middle peasant
Industry water requirement, which mainly includes planting industry, woods fruit and grassland irrigation, fishery, needs water.
6. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 5, it is characterised in that planting industry, woods fruit and grass
Crop structure is by storing, drawing, the job facilities such as carrying and supplied water to farmland, forest land, grassland, to meet to need water requirement.Agricultural fills
Irrigate water demand forecast and use quota method;
Calculation formula is as follows:
WAgriculture fills i=∑ (CIrrigate j×gNet j/ηj)
In formula:WAgriculture fills iWater requirement (ten thousand m are filled for the agriculture of i forcasted years3);CIrrigate jFor i forcasted years j crop irrigations areas (ten thousand hm2);gNet jFor i
The forcasted years j crop irrigations quota (hm of m3/ ten thousand2);ηjFor i forcasted years j crop irrigation Water application rates.
7. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 5, it is characterised in that fishery needs water to include supporting
Grow evaporation from water surface, the magnitude of recruitment and quantity of exchanged water of seepage institute water loss.
A kind of 8. regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 4, it is characterised in that institute in the step 2
Stating water demand of ecological environment has a relativity, the ecological environment under different ecological environments, different ecological environmental protection strategies
Water requirement is different.
9. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 8, it is characterised in that in the step 3 really
Determining region gross water requirement needs to be included in public supply mains leak rate.
10. a kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method according to claim 9, it is characterised in that needed in the step 3
The analysis on its rationality of water is based primarily upon five aspects:Expanding economy speed;It is expected that industrial water consumption;Live Use Water Quota is pre-
Whether survey meets internal and international water saving standard;Water demand of ecological environment demand-decided model over a period to come;Whether " three are met
The control requirement of red line ".
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