CN110458357A - Industrial drought loss forecasting and appraisal procedure - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of industrial drought loss forecasting and appraisal procedures, comprising: establishes Forecast model of industrial water demand；Calibration is carried out to Forecast model of industrial water demand parameter；Obtain industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio；Industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio is calculated；Industrial loss assessed value is calculated.Using the present invention can real-time and efficiently full forecast and assessment drought loss, provide urgent need information for the scientific mitigation disaster relief, at the same be also meteorology, water conservancy, agricultural, environmental protection and civil affairs department's decision provide important scientific basis.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to casualty loss electric powder prediction, in particular to a kind of industrial drought loss forecasting and assessment side
Method.
Background technique
With the exception of Global climate change, drought event is more frequent, causes serious damage to society, economy, ecology
It loses.Regional arid often results in global influence, and drought has become the most commonly used natural calamity of global effect.Drought
Calamity causes serious influence to social economy's ecology, has caused the extensive concern of countries in the world.Currently, both at home and abroad to arid
In terms of loss appraisal and prediction are concentrated mainly on agricultural, including planting industry and animal husbandry, otherwise drought loss research compared with
It is few, such as city domestic water, tourist industry and industry.Data are mainly by way of investigation, expert interviewing and statistics on the spot
It obtains；Assessment and prediction technique are mainly combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, most of to use input output model, hydrology economics
The Economic Models such as model, there are also plant physiologies mechanism models such as some EPIC, the risk of loss degree based on risk assessment principle
Model etc..
However, inventor it has been investigated that, at present arid to social economy ecology caused by loss lack compared with system
Quantitative research.Drought loss appraisal and prediction it is more and also it is most of concentrate on agricultural, otherwise drought loss research compared with
It is few；Assessment and prediction technique mainly use qualitative and quantitative evaluation to combine, and quantitative evalution model is mostly statistical model, by area
The factors such as domain, artificial influence, and universality is poor, can not real-time high-efficiency objectively evaluate.Drought loss forecasting side in the prior art
In a certain respect just for region, model universality is poor for method, lacks the loss appraisal and prediction technique of complete set.
Summary of the invention
Based on this, the technical issues of to solve in the prior art, spy proposes a kind of industrial drought loss forecasting and assessment
Method, comprising:
Step 1, the drought disaster forecast and assessment request that user sends are received, industrial water demand prediction mould is established according to user's request
Type；
Step 2, it is requested to carry out calibration to Forecast model of industrial water demand parameter according to user；
Step 3, according to user's request industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio；
Step 4, it predicts to obtain industrial water requirements using the Forecast model of industrial water demand of foundation, according to industrial water requirements and work
Industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio is calculated in industry water requirement Deficient Ratio；
Step 5, industrial loss assessed value is calculated according to industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio；Obtained industrial loss is assessed
Value is sent to respective request user.
In one embodiment, the Forecast model of industrial water demand are as follows:
In formula (1),The industrial water consumption of respectively 1 year and standard year, unit are hundred million m3；Hi, Ho difference
For 1 year and the Huffman coefficient of standard year；Mi, Mo are respectively the ratio of 1 year and standard year processing industry in industrial output value
Weight；Gi, G0 are respectively the industrial added value of 1 year and standard year；ε, a, β be respectively Huffman coefficient, processing industry ratio and
Impact factor of the industrial added value to industrial water requirements.
In one embodiment, according to the actual used water amount and statistical yearbook number in city water resource bulletin, statistical yearbook
According to Forecast model of industrial water demand parameter ε, a, β progress calibration.
In one embodiment, dry year city water level is lower than normal yield water level, using normal flow year as normal yield,
When normal yield water resource can guarantee it is industrial normally need water, dry year water level is compared with normal yield water level,
Water level decreasing rate is industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio, and it is as follows to calculate industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio:
Ri=(H-Hi)/H (2)
In formula (2), Ri is 1 year industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio, and H is normal yield water level, and Hi is 1 year water level.
In one embodiment, industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio are as follows:
In formula (3), the 1 year industrial water deficit in the region Wi,For 1 year industrial water requirements, the industry in 1 year of the region Ri was lacked
Water rate.
In one embodiment, the alternative cost to be caused damages using the opportunity cost of industrial water as water shortage to industry,
Calculate industrial loss assessed value, such as following formula caused by water shortage:
Yi=Wi/Ui (4)
In formula (4), Yi is industrial loss assessed value caused by water shortage, and Wi is industrial water deficit, and Ui is that ten thousand yuan of industry increase
The water consumption of value.
Implement the embodiment of the present invention, will have the following beneficial effects:
Real-time and efficiently full forecast and assessment drought loss, provide urgent need information for the science mitigation disaster relief, while being also
Meteorology, water conservancy, agricultural, environmental protection and civil affairs department's decision provide important scientific basis.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below
There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this
Some embodiments of invention for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can be with
It obtains other drawings based on these drawings.
Wherein:
Fig. 1 is industrial drought loss forecasting and the flow diagram of appraisal procedure in the present invention.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other
Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Arid industry or service trade economic loss pass through caused by referring to the destruction of water service function due to caused by arid
Ji loss.Arid influences to be mainly manifested in the influence of water service function and as caused by arid time caused by industry or service trade
The influence of raw disaster.The influence of the secondary disaster as caused by arid is difficult to quantify and does not have generality.Only consider in clock of the present invention
It is lost caused by the destruction of water service.Function of the water in industrial service industry is analyzed, can be divided by economics character
Two classes: one kind is to production division, and another kind of is to consumer sector.Production division refers to that the primary industry, secondary industry, third produce
Industry.Consumer sector includes public utilities, family life etc..
If the shadow for leading to water resource insufficient supply by arid in certain time period to generate to the industrial service industry output value
It rings, understands and analyze influence of the arid to industry and services economic loss from different perspectives, the mathematical model established is different,
Model can be using exp-function method, power function method etc..In the present invention, using linear regression theory, gray system theory, establish
Evaluation model of the arid to industrial service industry economic loss.
1) linear regression theory: linear regression analysis can determine physical relationship and its intensity between two variables.It returns
Return analysis based on the actual value of independent variable and dependent variable, linear model is established, and under certain accuracy, according to independent variable
Predict the value of dependent variable.
There are causalities between many variables in social economy, and can be generally divided into two classes: one kind is deposited between variable
In completely specified relationship, i.e., a variable can be unique really according to certain rule by one or several other variables
It is fixed；It is another kind of to be that there is probabilistic relationships to a certain degree between variable, such as between grain yield and dose
Relationship just belongs to this.Research and utilization regression analysis determines correlativity and degree of correlation between variable, establishes regression model,
Degree of correlation between test variable, is estimated and is predicted using regression model.
2) gray system theory: gray system theory is exactly relationship between each factor of some internal system not right and wrong
Normal defines, which provides a kind of new analysis method, i.e. correlation analysis method.According to developing state between factor
Similar or different degree measures the correlation degree between factor, and there is disclosed feature and degree that things dynamically associates.Grey colour system
System theory using developing state as foothold, to sample size number do not have strict requirements, do not need the typical regularity of distribution yet,
Calculation amount is few, and does not occur the quantized result of the degree of association and the situation that qualitative analysis is inconsistent.
Gray system theory sufficiently excavates the hidden letter in finite data according to the behavioural characteristic data of specific gray system
Breath, find element between or element itself mathematical relationship.Gray system theory can use discrete model, establish one temporally
Make the model analyzed paragraph by paragraph.
Such as Fig. 1, the invention proposes a kind of industry and service trade drought loss forecasting and appraisal procedures, comprising:
Step 1, the drought disaster forecast and assessment request that user sends are received, industrial water demand prediction mould is established according to user's request
Type, or establish service trade water demand forecast model；
Wherein, the Forecast model of industrial water demand are as follows:
In formula,The industrial water consumption of respectively 1 year and standard year, unit are hundred million m3；Hi, Ho are respectively
The Huffman coefficient of i and standard year；Mi, Mo are respectively the specific gravity of 1 year and standard year processing industry in industrial output value；
Gi, G0 are respectively the industrial added value of 1 year and standard year；ε, a, β are respectively Huffman coefficient, processing industry ratio and industry
Impact factor of the value added to industrial water requirements；
Wherein, the service trade water demand forecast model are as follows:
In formula, Pi R、Po RThe service trade water consumption of respectively 1 year and standard year, unit are hundred million m3；Ei, Eo are respectively i-th
Resident's Engel coefficient in year and standard year；Ni, No are respectively 1 year and the standard year size of population；Fi, Fo are respectively 1 year
With the precipitation of standard year；δ, φ, ω are respectively the influence of Engel coefficient, the size of population and rainfall to service trade water requirement
The factor；
Step 2, it is requested to carry out calibration to Forecast model of industrial water demand parameter according to user, or to service trade water demand forecast
Model parameter carries out calibration；
It is pre- to industrial water demand according to the actual used water amount and statistical yearbook data in city water resource bulletin, statistical yearbook
It surveys model parameter ε, a, β and carries out calibration；
According to the actual used water amount and statistical yearbook data in city water resource bulletin, statistical yearbook, water is needed to service trade
Prediction model parameters δ, φ, ω carry out calibration；
Step 3, according to user's request industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio, or service trade water requirement Deficient Ratio is obtained；
Wherein, dry year city water level is lower than normal yield water level, using normal flow year as normal yield, when normal yield
Water resource can guarantee it is industrial normally need water, dry year water level is compared with normal yield water level, water level decreasing rate
For industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio, such as following formula:
Ri=(H-Hi)/H
In formula, Ri is 1 year industrial Deficient Ratio, and H is normal yield water level, and Hi is 1 year water level；
Wherein, dry year city water level is lower than normal yield water level, using normal flow year as normal yield, when normal yield
Water resource can guarantee that the normal of service trade needs water, and dry year water level is compared with normal yield water level, and water level decreasing rate is
Service trade water requirement Deficient Ratio, such as following formula:
Si=(K-Ki)/K
In formula, Si is 1 year service trade Deficient Ratio, and K is normal yield water level, and Ki is 1 year water level.
Step 4, it predicts to obtain industrial water requirements using the Forecast model of industrial water demand of foundation, according to industrial water requirements and work
Industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio is calculated in industry water requirement Deficient Ratio；Or it is measured using the service trade water demand forecast model of foundation
Service trade water requirement Deficient Ratio is calculated according to service trade water requirement and service trade water requirement Deficient Ratio in service trade water deficit；
Wherein, industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio are as follows:
In formula, the 1 year industrial water deficit in the region Wi,For 1 year industrial water requirements, the 1 year industrial water shortage in the region Ri
Rate；
Wherein, service trade water requirement Deficient Ratio are as follows:
Vi=Pi R*Si
In formula, the 1 year service trade water deficit in the region Vi, Pi RFor 1 year service trade water requirement, the service trade in 1 year of the region Si
Deficient Ratio；
Step 5, industrial loss assessed value is calculated according to industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio, or according to service trade water requirement
Service trade loss appraisal value is calculated in Deficient Ratio；Obtained industrial loss assessed value or service trade loss appraisal value are sent to
Respective request user；
Wherein, the alternative cost to be caused damages using the opportunity cost of industrial water as water shortage to industry is calculated water shortage and made
At industrial loss assessed value, such as following formula:
Yi=Wi/Ui
In formula, Yi is industrial loss assessed value caused by water shortage, and Wi is industrial water deficit, and Ui is ten thousand yuan of industrial added values
Water consumption；
Wherein, the alternative cost for using the opportunity cost of water to cause damages as water shortage to service trade using service trade is calculated and is lacked
The loss of service trade caused by water, such as following formula:
Zi=Vi/Li
In formula, Zi is service trade loss appraisal value caused by water shortage, and Vi is service trade water deficit, and Li is the increasing of ten thousand meta-service industry
Value added water consumption.
The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although with reference to the foregoing embodiments
Invention is explained in detail, those skilled in the art should understand that: it still can be to aforementioned each implementation
Technical solution documented by example is modified or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features；And these modification or
Replacement, can't be such that the essence of corresponding technical solution departs from the spirit and scope of the technical scheme of various embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of industry drought loss forecasting and appraisal procedure characterized by comprising
Step 1, the drought disaster forecast and assessment request that user sends are received, Forecast model of industrial water demand is established according to user's request；
Step 2, it is requested to carry out calibration to Forecast model of industrial water demand parameter according to user；
Step 3, according to user's request industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio；
Step 4, it predicts to obtain industrial water requirements using the Forecast model of industrial water demand of foundation, according to industrial water requirements and industrial need
Industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio is calculated in water Deficient Ratio；
Step 5, industrial loss assessed value is calculated according to industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio；Obtained industrial loss assessed value is sent out
Give respective request user.
2. industry drought loss forecasting according to claim 1 and appraisal procedure, which is characterized in that
Wherein, the Forecast model of industrial water demand are as follows:
In formula (1),The industrial water consumption of respectively 1 year and standard year, unit are hundred million m3；Hi, Ho are respectively i-th
The Huffman coefficient in year and standard year；Mi, Mo are respectively the specific gravity of 1 year and standard year processing industry in industrial output value；Gi,
G0 is respectively the industrial added value of 1 year He standard year；ε, a, β are respectively that Huffman coefficient, processing industry ratio and industry increase
The value added impact factor to industrial water requirements.
3. industry drought loss forecasting according to claim 2 and appraisal procedure, which is characterized in that
According to the actual used water amount and statistical yearbook data in city water resource bulletin, statistical yearbook, mould is predicted to industrial water demand
Shape parameter ε, a, β carry out calibration.
4. industry drought loss forecasting according to claim 1 and appraisal procedure, which is characterized in that
Wherein, dry year city water level is lower than normal yield water level, regard normal flow year as normal yield, water money when normal yield
Source can guarantee it is industrial normally need water, dry year water level is compared with normal yield water level, water level decreasing rate be work
It is as follows to calculate industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio for industry water requirement Deficient Ratio:
Ri=(H-Hi)/H (2)
In formula (2), Ri is 1 year industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio, and H is normal yield water level, and Hi is 1 year water level.
5. industry drought loss forecasting according to claim 4 and appraisal procedure, which is characterized in that
Wherein, industrial water requirements Deficient Ratio are as follows:
In formula (3), the 1 year industrial water deficit in the region Wi,For 1 year industrial water requirements, the 1 year industrial Deficient Ratio in the region Ri.
6. industry drought loss forecasting according to claim 5 and appraisal procedure, which is characterized in that
Wherein, the alternative cost to be caused damages using the opportunity cost of industrial water as water shortage to industry, caused by calculating water shortage
Industrial loss assessed value, such as following formula:
Yi=Wi/Ui (4)
In formula (4), Yi is industrial loss assessed value caused by water shortage, and Wi is industrial water deficit, and Ui is ten thousand yuan of industrial added values
Water consumption.
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| CN110020811A (en) * | 2019-04-16 | 2019-07-16 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Arid is to productivity impact evaluation method |
-
2019
- 2019-08-12 CN CN201910740677.1A patent/CN110458357A/en active Pending
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20140343855A1 (en) * | 2013-05-15 | 2014-11-20 | The Regents Of The University Of California | Drought Monitoring and Prediction Tools |
| CN106408160A (en) * | 2016-08-29 | 2017-02-15 | 长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司 | Water resource configuration method based on general rule framework set |
| CN107808211A (en) * | 2017-09-15 | 2018-03-16 | 周亚岐 | A kind of regional water resources needing forecasting method |
| CN108615105A (en) * | 2018-03-30 | 2018-10-02 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | Crops drought loss appraisal system and method based on remotely-sensed data |
| CN110020811A (en) * | 2019-04-16 | 2019-07-16 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Arid is to productivity impact evaluation method |
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