CN107633354B - Comprehensive evaluation method for running state health degree of station direct current system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for the running state health degree of a station direct current system, which comprises the following steps: A. an evaluation index system considering the factors of the health of direct current system equipment, operation defects, service life, voltage and current operation states and the like is established; B. obtaining each index value through statistical calculation, and carrying out standardization and normalization processing; C. calculating subjective and objective weights based on an improved analytic hierarchy process and a standard deviation and average deviation algorithm; and D, obtaining two quantitative evaluation results of the running state health degree of the direct current system to be evaluated by a linear weighting method. The evaluation process not only gives consideration to the objectivity of the evaluation, but also reflects the importance degree of the influence of different evaluation indexes on the evaluation result. The evaluation result tends to be more reasonable, the health degree change process of the system operation state is more microscopically and meticulously distinguished, and quantitative evaluation basis is provided for the optimization decision of the maintenance and overhaul plan of the direct current system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of quantitative evaluation of the running state of a power supply system for a substation of a power system, in particular to a multi-view comprehensive evaluation method of the running state of a DC system for the substation, which is suitable for carrying out subjective and objective-based refined quantitative evaluation on the actual running state of the DC system and can provide a basis for further optimization decision of running risk evaluation and maintenance plan of the DC system.
Background
The alternating current and direct current power supply system for the transformer substation is a provider of power supplies and operation control power supplies of communication and various protection and automation devices in the transformer substation, is a premise of normal operation of intelligent equipment of the transformer substation, and is an important link for ensuring safe and reliable operation of the transformer substation. The alternating current and direct current power supply system is divided into different power supply modules according to different components, and the main power supply objects and the functions of the power supply modules are different. When the system normally operates, the alternating current power supply system is responsible for providing a stable alternating current power supply for alternating current electric devices such as a lighting system, ventilation equipment, monitoring equipment, metering equipment and the like, the direct current power supply system is responsible for providing a stable direct current power supply for loads of automatic equipment such as control, protection and circuit breakers and the like in a transformer substation, and the communication power supply system is responsible for providing a communication power supply for internal communication loads of the transformer substation. When the alternating current power supply system breaks down, if the fault can be eliminated through the control of the segmented bus, the continuous power supply of the alternating current and direct current load for the station can be continued. When a large-scale power failure accident occurs, a standby power supply such as a storage battery needs to be started to provide direct current energy for guaranteeing normal operation of important direct current loads for the station, and a reliable power supply is provided for important alternating current loads such as monitoring, metering and emergency lighting through an inverter unit. In addition, because the protection and automation devices of the transformer substation, the control loop and the signal loop of the automation devices can stably and reliably work only by using the alternating current and direct current power supply, the failure of the alternating current and direct current power supply can also cause the failure of relay protection and a safety automation device, and further cause the override trip of the protection device when the system fails, thereby enlarging the accident range. The fire accident of the southern suburb in xi an city, Shaanxi, 6.18.2016 is caused by the problem of AC/DC power supply system. The direct-current power supply system is used as a foundation for safe operation of important infrastructure such as a transformer substation and a communication base station, and the stable operation of the direct-current power supply system is guaranteed to play a vital role in safe operation of the transformer substation. In the operation of an electric power system, the damage of electric power equipment, system faults and accident range expansion caused by unreasonable design of a direct-current power supply, improper equipment selection and non-standard operation maintenance, or the direct-current power supply faults caused by the failure of preventing the operation risk of the direct-current power supply of a transformer substation in advance and reducing the power supply reliability can bring potential huge losses to a power supply system and national property. Therefore, the evaluation of the health state of the direct-current power supply of the transformer substation and the corresponding anti-accident prevention and control measures are the problems which must be solved preferentially, and the research of the multi-view comprehensive evaluation oriented to the reliability and the safety of the running state of the direct-current system can provide a scientific refined quantification method for dynamically evaluating the potential running risk of the direct-current system, and the evaluation and the establishment of the corresponding early warning strategy and measures can greatly enhance the running reliability of the power supply system for the substation.
The direct current system of the transformer substation consists of a direct current distribution panel and a storage battery pack, wherein the direct current distribution panel comprises a charging device and a direct current feed system. At present, a corresponding evaluation and assessment method is established around the running state evaluation of the station direct current system in China, for example, the state evaluation and risk evaluation method based on deduction statistics of direct current power supply equipment is determined in the equipment state evaluation and risk evaluation technical guide of Guangdong power grid company, and the method has a certain guiding effect on unifying the planning and construction standard of the station direct current power supply system and preventing the running risk. However, the evaluation method does not consider the importance degree of the influence of the operation defects of the equipment of the direct current system in different degrees on the evaluation result, so that the evaluation result is over conservative, and the evaluation method also does not consider the real-time operation state of the direct current power supply system. Therefore, in combination with the construction and development requirements of the intelligent substation, the invention provides a set of evaluation method of the station direct-current power supply system comprehensively considering multi-factor influence, and the evaluation method has important significance for improving the operation reliability of the station power supply of the intelligent substation and completing the evaluation method of the station power supply operation state.
Disclosure of Invention
According to the rapid development of the current direct-current power supply technology for the substation, the invention provides a set of operation state health degree evaluation method which comprehensively considers the influences of multiple factors such as the equipment configuration and operation defects of a distribution panel and a storage battery of a direct-current system for the substation, the equipment operation age, the real-time operation state of direct-current piezoelectric current and the like. The method comprises the steps of establishing a set of comprehensive evaluation index system, combining a direct current power supply system object for a station to be evaluated, calculating and standardizing all indexes by using operation statistical data and online measurement data of the direct current system for the station and based on the determined calculation and analysis methods of different evaluation indexes, obtaining an intuitive comparison and evaluation result on the basis of considering the influence of subjective and objective weights on the evaluation result, and providing quantitative evaluation basis for the evaluation of the operation state health degree and the prevention of operation risks of the direct current system for the substation. The comprehensive evaluation method is simple to apply, has intuitive and clear conclusion, and has good popularization and application values.
A comprehensive evaluation method for the running state health degree of a station direct current system is characterized in that an evaluation index system based on establishment comprises the following steps:
the first evaluation index and the EHI include whether the DC system equipment configuration for the station meets the following requirements:
(1) a double set of configuration charging devices; (2) double-set configuration storage battery pack; (3) a charging module based on a high-frequency switching technology is adopted; (4) configuring a charging module according to an N +1 mode; (5) an effective voltage reduction and regulation device is configured; (6) whether the rated capacity of the storage battery meets the requirements of the accident discharge or not; (7) whether the capacity of the feeder switch meets the power supply requirement or not; (8) whether the direct current air switch and the fuse meet the level difference requirement or not; (9) whether the main connection of the direct current system meets the technical specification requirements or not; (10) the direct current screen has anti-fault measures; (11) the battery pack has counter-fault measures.
The evaluation index II and the operation health index OHI comprise whether the station direct current system meets the following emergency operation defects:
(1) the direct current bus is subjected to voltage loss; (2) the direct current bus is fully grounded; (3) the storage battery pack is on fire or explodes; (4) short circuit of the storage battery group; (5) the storage battery pack is in an open circuit; (6) fusing an outlet fuse of the storage battery pack; (7) tripping a direct current switch at the outlet of the charging device; (8) the two sections of alternating current power supplies of the charging device are interrupted; (9) a charging device fault or a single set of charging device with 2 or more charging module faults; (10) the silicon voltage reduction loop is open; (11) tripping of the direct current switch causes loss of power of an important protection or control loop; (12) the dc feeder branch is completely grounded.
And whether the station dc system satisfies the following significant operational drawbacks:
(1) over/under voltage of the direct current bus; (2) the direct current is grounded discontinuously, but the normal operation of the system is not influenced temporarily; (3) the capacity of the storage battery is reduced to be below 80% of rated capacity or the requirement of opening and closing a switch is not met; (4) swelling of the storage battery and damage of the shell; (5) the over/under voltage or the float charging current of the storage battery monomer does not meet the requirement; (6) the storage battery heats, and the temperature of the shell exceeds the standard; (7) one path of alternating current power supply of the charging device is interrupted; (8) the voltage stabilization and the current stabilization of the charging device do not meet the requirements; (9) the silicon voltage reduction circuit automatically adjusts abnormally; (10) the manual regulation of the silicon pressure reduction loop is abnormal; (11) tripping a non-important direct current load direct current switch; (12) the direct current system has a ring network; (13) the direct current feeder line branch is grounded and alarmed; (14) the feeder switch uses an AC air switch.
And whether the station dc system meets the following general operational drawbacks: (1) failure or damage to auxiliary equipment in the battery compartment; (2) corrosion and oxidation phenomena exist in the connection piece and the pole of the storage battery pack; (3) seepage of the storage battery; (4) a single charging module failure; (5) the auxiliary contact of the direct current breaker is broken.
Evaluation index three, service life index, including the service life index RYI _ CH of the charging device and the service life index RYI _ BAT of the storage battery pack;
evaluating indexes IV, namely static safety indexes of the direct current system, including a node voltage distribution coefficient UDCDI and a current distribution coefficient IDCDI of a feeder line branch;
the comprehensive evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating the evaluation index of the station direct current system based on the established evaluation index system;
step 2, carrying out standardization processing on the evaluation index calculation result obtained by the calculation in the step 1: for the index i of the direct current system j to be evaluated, selectively processing the gauge index measurement type by a standardization method:
selecting and processing one: when the index is a positive index, namely the index result is better as the index result is larger, the standardized formula is as follows:
in the formula I, xijIndicating an index calculation result;
{ x of index i, respectivelyijJ is the maximum value and the minimum value of 1,2 … n.
Selecting and processing two: when the index is an inverse index, that is, the smaller the index data is, the better the index data is, the standardized formula is as follows:
selecting and processing three: when the index is a moderate index, i.e. the index data is closer
The better, the normalized formula is:
in the formula
Is the best stable value of index i.
Step 3, carrying out subjective weighting based on improved AHP and objective weighting based on standard deviation and average deviation aiming at the standardized processing evaluation index obtained in the step 2;
step 4, based on the subjective weighting and objective weighting results obtained in step 3, based on the combined weighting, adopting an additive weighting method to carry out comprehensive evaluation, specifically defining the obtained subjective weight vector W1＝[w11w12…w1m]And a guest weight vector W2＝[w21w22…w2m]Then the linear combining weight is
W＝k1W1+k2W2(k1+k2＝1,k1≥0,k2≥0)，k1And k2Can be set according to the importance degree of the subjective and objective weights respectively, k1And k2Equal to 0.5 indicates that the subjective and objective weights have the same importance. The comprehensive evaluation value of the running state health degree of the direct current system for the station to be evaluated by utilizing the additive weighted evaluation model is
Wherein j represents the number of the direct current systems to be evaluated, and i represents the number of the evaluation indexes.
In the above method for comprehensively evaluating the health degree of the operating state of the station dc system, in step 1, the calculation method of each evaluation index specifically includes:
index one: the calculation method of the equipment health index ED is shown as a formula I.
In the formula IV, eiIs the value of the ith statistical item in the 11 statistical items of the equipment health index, ei1 means that the ith statistic is fullExamination requirements for foot indices, ei0 means not satisfied.
Index two: the calculation method of the operational health indicator OHI is shown as formula five.
In the formula V, nOHIThe number of times of running health evaluation indexes is counted; e.g. of the typeOHI,iFor the value of the ith statistic of the health index, the calculation method refers to the formula six.
In the formula VI, ni、njAnd nkRespectively representing the statistical item numbers of the emergency defect, the major defect and the general defect of the operation of the direct current system; e.g. of the typeiIndicating whether the ith emergency operation defect exists, ei1 represents present, ei0 means absent; e.g. of the typejIndicating whether a jth major operating defect exists, ej1 represents present, ei0 indicates absent; e.g. of the typekIndicating whether the k-th general operation defect exists, ek1 represents present, ek0 means absent. Parameter kOHI,1、kOHI,2、kOHI,3Are weight coefficients.
Index three: the calculation method of the service life index is shown as a formula seven.
In the seventh expression, T represents the whole operation period of the charging device or the storage battery, and the maintenance recording time of each device is not considered, namely the unit year; t isyeRepresents the design service life of the charging device or the storage battery, and is unit year; t is1And T2Two comparison thresholds, one for age; parameter kRYI,1、kRYI,2The age factor is reduced.
The index is four: static safety metrics include
The calculation method of the node voltage distribution coefficient UDCDI is shown in formula eight.
In the formula VIII, nUDCDICounting times of the node voltage distribution coefficient; e.g. of the typeUDCDI,iThe calculation method is referred to formula nine, wherein the ith statistical value is the node voltage distribution coefficient index.
In the ninth formula, m represents the total number of the investigation nodes; u. ofdc,lAn actual operating value representing the voltage of the l-th node under consideration; u. ofl,eRepresenting the nominal operating value of the voltage at the l-th node under consideration. Pl% represents a proportionality coefficient; etau,lAnd (4) expressing a penalty factor, and correcting the severity of the node voltage deviation rated value by adopting a piecewise continuous penalty function shown in a formula ten.
The calculation method of the distribution coefficient IDCDI of the feeder branch current is shown as the formula eleven.
In the formula eleven, nIDCDICounting the times of the current distribution coefficient of the feeder line branch; e.g. of the typeIDCDI,iThe calculation method is the formula twelve, wherein the ith statistical value is the index of the current distribution coefficient of the feeder branch circuit.
In the formula twelve, q represents the total number of the investigation nodes; i.e. idc,rRepresenting the actual operation value of the considered r branch current; i.e. ir,eRepresenting the maximum allowable operating value of the considered r-th branch current. Etai,rAnd representing a penalty factor, and correcting the branch current stability margin by adopting a piecewise continuous penalty function shown in the formula thirteen.
In the formula thirteen, Pr% represents the set proportional threshold.
In the above comprehensive evaluation method for the health degree of the operating state of the station direct current system, the specific method based on subjective weighting of the improved AHP in step 3 is as follows: establishing a judgment matrix A (a) by pairwise comparison of evaluation indexesij)m×mBy solving the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the decision matrix AmaxAnd checking the consistency of the relative importance degree sequence of each index determined by using the formula fourteen.
In the formula, m is the maximum order of the matrix, namely the number of evaluation indexes; deltaCRIs a random consistency ratio; deltaRIThe index value is a random consistency index of the m-order matrix, and the index value is increased along with the increase of the order number of the matrix; when deltaCR<When the value is 0.1, the sequencing results of the relative importance degrees among the indexes in the single hierarchy are considered to have better consistency. On the premise of satisfying consistency test, the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix is solvedmaxAnd carrying out normalization processing on the corresponding feature vectors to obtain subjective weight vectors among all indexes in the same layer.
In the above comprehensive evaluation method for the health degree of the operating state of the station direct current system, the specific method of objective weighting based on the standard deviation and the average deviation in step 3 is as follows: the standard deviation and average deviation method obtains objective weight by calculating the standard deviation and average deviation of the index without considering the weighting coefficient W. The weighting vector W is chosen such that the total standard deviation and/or the total mean deviation of all evaluation indices is maximal, i.e.:
in the formula fifteen, F (W) is a fitness function; parameters alpha and beta are weight coefficients, alpha + beta is equal to 1, alpha is equal to or larger than 0, beta is equal to or larger than 0, alpha is equal to 0 and only considers the average difference without considering the standard difference, beta is equal to 0 and only considers the standard difference without considering the average difference, and alpha and beta are not equal to 0 and both the standard difference and the average difference are considered; m represents the number of evaluation indexes; n represents the number of direct current systems for the station to be evaluated; sigmaiAnd muiRespectively representing the standard deviation sum and the average deviation of the evaluation index i when the weighting coefficient W is not considered; wiThe index i is expressed taking into account the objective weights of the standard deviation and the mean deviation. Solving the fifteen optimization problems can obtain: fourteen of the optimal problems.
It can always be proved theoretically
Is the only maximum point of the objective function f (w). Because the traditional weighting vector generally meets the normalized constraint condition rather than the unitization constraint condition, the unitization weighting vector is obtained
Then, also need to be right
Carrying out normalization processing, namely:
compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and effects: when the health degree of the running state of the station direct current system is evaluated, various factors such as key technical measures for guaranteeing the safe running of a distribution screen and storage battery equipment of the direct current system, defects and service life of the running of the system, the actual running state of system voltage and current and the like are comprehensively considered, a set of comprehensive evaluation system is established, and the actual running state of the system can be more comprehensively reflected. In the evaluation process, the index is based on the subjective and objective weighted combination weight, so that the subjective and objective properties of comprehensive evaluation are considered, and the importance degree of the influence of different evaluation indexes on the evaluation result is reflected. The evaluation result tends to be more reasonable, the health degree change process of the system operation state is distinguished more microscopically and meticulously, and quantitative evaluation basis is provided for the optimization decision of the maintenance and overhaul plan of the direct current system. The method theorizes the engineering evaluation problem, and the analysis result is more intuitive and convincing.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a method structure diagram for comprehensively evaluating the health degree of the operating state of the station dc system.
Fig. 2 is an index system for evaluating the health degree of the running state of the direct current system for the station.
Detailed Description
The following describes a specific implementation manner of the comprehensive evaluation method for the health degree of the operating state of the station direct current system, and performs analysis and calculation by combining specific examples,
first, the principle of the method of the present invention will be described.
The specific contents and steps of the index and the method for comprehensively evaluating the running state health degree of the station direct current system are as follows:
1. establishment of evaluation index System
The evaluation of the running state health degree of the station direct current system mainly considers the evaluation of the factors of the reasonability of the configuration of direct current system equipment, the statistics of historical running defects, whether counter-fault measures exist, the running age of key equipment of the system, the static running safety of direct current voltage and current and the like. Therefore, the following comprehensive evaluation index system is established around the above aspects:
A. equipment health indicator EHI
Whether the DC system equipment configuration for the survey station meets the following requirements or not is examined: (1) a double set of configuration charging devices; (2) double-set configuration storage battery pack; (3) a charging module based on a high-frequency switching technology is adopted; (4) configuring a charging module according to an N +1 mode; (5) an effective voltage reduction and regulation device is configured; (6) whether the rated capacity of the storage battery meets the accident discharge requirement or not; (7) whether the capacity of the feeder switch meets the power supply requirement or not; (8) whether the direct current air switch and the fuse meet the level difference requirement or not; (9) whether the main wiring of the direct current system meets the requirement of the technical specification or not; (10) the direct current screen has anti-fault measures; (11) the battery pack has counter-fault measures.
B. Operational health index OHI
Whether the DC system for the inspection station meets the following emergency operation defects or not is examined: (1) the direct current bus is subjected to voltage loss; (2) the direct current bus is fully grounded; (3) the storage battery pack is on fire or explodes; (4) short circuit of the storage battery pack; (5) the storage battery pack is in an open circuit; (6) fusing an outlet fuse of the storage battery pack; (7) tripping a direct current switch at the outlet of the charging device; (8) interrupting the two sections of alternating current power supplies of the charging device; (9) a charging device fault or a single set of charging device with 2 or more charging module faults; (10) the silicon voltage reduction loop is open; (11) tripping of the direct current switch causes loss of power of an important protection or control loop; (12) the dc feeder branch is completely grounded.
Whether the DC system for the survey station meets the following important operation defects or not is determined: (1) over/under voltage of the direct current bus; (2) the direct current is grounded discontinuously, but the normal operation of the system is not influenced temporarily; (3) the capacity of the storage battery is reduced to be below 80 percent of rated capacity or does not meet the switching-on and switching-off requirements of a switch; (4) swelling of the storage battery and damage of the shell; (5) the over/under voltage or the float charging current of the storage battery monomer does not meet the requirement; (6) the storage battery heats, and the temperature of the shell exceeds the standard; (7) one path of alternating current power supply of the charging device is interrupted; (8) the voltage stabilization and the current stabilization of the charging device do not meet the requirements; (9) the silicon voltage reduction circuit automatically adjusts abnormally; (10) the manual regulation of the silicon pressure reduction loop is abnormal; (11) tripping a non-important direct current load direct current switch; (12) the direct current system has a ring network; (13) the direct current feeder line branch is grounded and alarmed; (14) the feeder switch uses an AC air switch.
Whether the DC system for the survey station meets the following general operation defects or not is determined: (1) failure or damage to auxiliary equipment in the battery compartment; (2) corrosion and oxidation phenomena exist in the connection piece and the pole of the storage battery pack; (3) seepage of the storage battery; (4) a single charging module failure; (5) the auxiliary contact of the direct current breaker is broken.
C. Age index
The charging device service life index RYI _ CH and the storage battery pack service life index RYI _ BAT are formed. D. Static safety index of DC system
The device is composed of a node voltage distribution coefficient UDCDI and a current distribution coefficient IDCDI of a feeder branch circuit.
2. Calculation of evaluation index
The calculation method of the equipment health index ED is shown as a formula I.
In the formula I, eiIs the value of the ith statistical item in the 11 statistical items of the equipment health index, ei1 means that the ith statistical item meets the index assessment requirement, ei0 means not satisfied.
The calculation method of the operation health index OHI is shown as formula two.
In the formula II, nOHIThe number of times of running health evaluation indexes is counted; e.g. of the typeOHI,iFor the value of the ith statistic of the running health index, the calculation method refers to the formula three.
In the formula III, ni、njAnd nkIndicating emergency, major and general defects of operation of the dc system respectivelyCounting the number of items; e.g. of the typeiIndicating whether the ith emergency operation defect exists, ei1 represents present, ei0 means absent; e.g. of the typejIndicating whether a jth major operating defect exists, ej1 represents present, ei0 indicates absent; e.g. of the typekIndicating whether the k-th general operation defect exists, ek1 represents present, ek0 means absent. Parameter kOHI,1、kOHI,2、kOHI,3The weight coefficients can be set by referring to the technical guide rules of equipment state evaluation and risk assessment of Guangdong power grid company
The calculation method of the service life index is shown as the formula IV.
In the fourth expression, T represents the whole operation period of the charging device or the storage battery, and the maintenance recording time of each device is not considered, namely the unit year; t isyeRepresents the design service life of the charging device or the storage battery, and is unit year; t is1And T2Two comparison thresholds of service life are respectively used, parameter setting can be carried out by referring to the technical guide rules of equipment state evaluation and risk evaluation of Guangdong power grid company, and T is set1And T27 years and 10 years respectively; parameter kRYI,1、 kRYI,2For the service life factor, parameter setting can be carried out by referring to the technical guide rules of equipment state evaluation and risk assessment of Guangdong power grid company
The calculation method of the node voltage distribution coefficient UDCDI is shown in the formula five.
In the formula V, nUDCDICounting times of the node voltage distribution coefficient; e.g. of the typeUDCDI,iThe ith statistical value of the node voltage distribution coefficient index is calculated according to the formula six.
In the sixth expression, m represents the total number of the investigation nodes; u. ofdc,lAn actual operating value representing the voltage of the l-th node under consideration; u. ofl,eRepresenting the nominal operating value of the voltage at the l-th node under consideration. Pl% represents a proportionality coefficient; etau,lAnd (4) expressing a penalty factor, and correcting the severity of the node voltage deviation rated value by adopting a segmented continuous penalty function shown in a formula seven.
The calculation method of the distribution coefficient IDCDI of the feeder branch current is shown as the formula eight.
In the formula VIII, nIDCDICounting the times of the current distribution coefficient of the feeder line branch; e.g. of the typeIDCDI,iThe ith statistical value of the current distribution coefficient index of the feeder branch is obtained, and the calculation method refers to the ninth expression.
In the ninth expression, q represents the total number of the investigation nodes; i.e. idc,rRepresenting the actual operating value of the considered r branch current; i.e. ir,eRepresenting the maximum allowable operating value of the considered r-th branch current. Etai,rAnd representing a penalty factor, and correcting the branch current stability margin by adopting a piecewise continuous penalty function shown in a formula ten.
In the formula ten, Pr% represents the set proportional threshold.
3. Normalization processing of evaluation index calculation results
In the evaluation index system, since indexes differ from each other in terms of content, dimension, and value quality standard, it is necessary to standardize the calculation results of the indexes.
For the index i of the direct current system j to be evaluated, the standardization method can be carried out in the following three ways.
When the index is a positive index, namely the index result is better as the index result is larger, the standardized formula is as follows:
in the formula eleven, xijIndicating an index calculation result;
{ x of index i, respectivelyijJ is the maximum value and the minimum value of 1,2 … n.
When the index is an inverse index, that is, the smaller the index data is, the better the index data is, the standardized formula is as follows:
when the index is a moderate index, i.e. the index data is closer
The better, the normalized formula is:
in the formula
Is the best stable value of index i.
4. Subjective weighting of evaluation index based on improved AHP
The improved analytic hierarchy process is a new scale method for expanding indexes, and can avoid the problem that the traditional analytic hierarchy process adopts scales corresponding to 9 evaluation grades, which may cause wrong evaluation conclusion or wrong consistency check. The method first divides the judgment scale into 6 scales, for example, if the comparison scale of E to F and F to G is known, the comparison of E to G is transitive, namely E: G ═ E: F)/(F: G), and a slightly important score is set as lambda, and an important score is set as lambda2The significantly important score is λ4With a strongly important score of λ6An extremely important score is λ8Since the limit of the numerical judgment is 9, let λ8＝9(λ8The above values are all noted as 9), and λ is obtained as 1.3161, whereby the index scale shown in table 1 can be given.
TABLE 1 Scale and meanings of evaluation index for improving AHP method
| Scale | Scale meanings | Scale | Scale meanings |
| 1 | E and F are equally important | 3 | E is significantly more important than F |
| 1.3161 | E is slightly more important than F | 5.1966 | E is more important than F |
| 1.7321 | E is more important than F | 9 | E is extremely important than F |
According to table 1, a determination matrix a ═ a (a) is established by pairwise comparison of evaluation indexesij)m×mBy solving the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the decision matrix AmaxAnd checking the consistency of the relative importance degree sequence of each index determined by using the formula fourteen.
In the formula, m is the maximum order of the matrix, namely the number of evaluation indexes; deltaCRIs a random consistency ratio; deltaRIThe index value is a random consistency index of the m-order matrix, the index value is increased along with the increase of the order number of the matrix, and the value is referred to table 2.
TABLE 2 consistency judgment values
| Order m | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| δRIValue of | 0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.9 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.49 |
When deltaCR<When the value is 0.1, the sequencing results of the relative importance degrees among the indexes in the single row of the hierarchy are considered to have better consistency. On the premise of meeting consistency check, the maximum characteristic value lambda of the judgment matrix is solvedmaxAnd carrying out normalization processing on the corresponding characteristic vectors to obtain subjective weight vectors among all indexes of the same layer.
5. Objective weighting of evaluation index based on standard deviation and average deviation
The standard deviation and average deviation method obtains an objective weight by calculating the standard deviation and average deviation of an index without considering the weighting coefficient W. The weighting vector W is chosen such that the total standard deviation and/or the total mean deviation of all evaluation indices is maximal, i.e.:
in the formula fifteen, F (W) is a fitness function; parameters alpha and beta are weight coefficients, alpha + beta is equal to 1, alpha is equal to or larger than 0, beta is equal to or larger than 0, alpha is equal to 0 and only considers the average difference without considering the standard difference, beta is equal to 0 and only considers the standard difference without considering the average difference, and alpha and beta are not equal to 0 and both the standard difference and the average difference are considered; m represents the number of evaluation indexes; n represents the number of direct current systems for the station to be evaluated; sigmaiAnd muiRespectively representing the standard deviation sum and the average deviation of the evaluation index i when the weighting coefficient W is not considered; wiThe index i is expressed taking into account the objective weights of the standard deviation and the mean deviation. Solving the fifteen optimization problems can obtain: fourteen of the optimal problems.
It can always be proved theoretically
Is the only maximum point of the objective function f (w). Because the traditional weighting vector generally meets the normalized constraint condition rather than the unitization constraint condition, the unitization weighting vector is obtained
Then, also need to be right
Carrying out normalization processing, namely:
6. comprehensive evaluation is carried out by adopting an additive weighting method based on combined weighting
Let it be assumed that the subjective weight vector W has been obtained1＝[w11w12…w1m]And objective weight vector W2＝[w21w22…w2m]，
The linear combining weight is W ═ k1W1+k2W2(k1+k2＝1,k1≥0,k2≥0)，k1And k2Can be set according to the importance degree of the subjective and objective weights respectively, k1And k2Equal to 0.5 indicates that the subjective and objective weights have the same importance. The comprehensive evaluation value of the running state health degree of the direct current system for the station to be evaluated by utilizing the additive weighted evaluation model is
Wherein j represents the number of the direct current systems to be evaluated, and i represents the number of the evaluation indexes.
Secondly, the following specific examples are described with reference to the above method, including the following steps:
the first step is as follows: establishment of an index System
According to the figure 2, the index system is divided into two levels, wherein the first level is an equipment health index, an operation health index, a service life index and a direct current system static safety index; the second layer equipment health indexes comprise whether a charging device is configured in a double-set mode or not, whether a storage battery set is configured in a double-set mode or not, whether a charging module based on a high-frequency switching technology is adopted or not, whether a charging module is configured in an N +1 mode or not, whether a voltage reduction and regulation device is effective or not, whether the rated capacity of the storage battery set meets an accident discharge requirement or not, whether the switch capacity of a feeder line meets a power supply requirement or not, whether a direct current air switch and a fuse meet a level difference requirement or not, whether a main connection wire of a direct current system meets a technical specification requirement or not, whether a direct current screen executes related. The operation health indexes comprise whether emergency defects such as direct current bus voltage loss, direct current bus full grounding, storage battery pack ignition or explosion, storage battery pack short circuit, storage battery pack open circuit, storage battery pack outlet fuse fusing, charging device outlet direct current switch tripping, charging device two-section alternating current power interruption, charging device failure or single set of charging device 2 or more charging module failure, silicon voltage reduction loop open circuit, important protection or control loop power loss caused by direct current switch tripping, direct current feeder branch circuit full grounding, storage battery pack operation defects and the like exist; whether major operation defects such as over/under voltage of a direct current bus, direct current intermittent grounding without influencing normal operation of a system temporarily exist, the capacity of a storage battery is reduced to be below 80% of rated capacity or not meeting the requirement of switch opening and closing, the storage battery expands or the shell is damaged, the over/under voltage of a storage battery monomer or the floating charging current does not meet the requirement, the storage battery is heated or the shell temperature exceeds the standard, one path of alternating current power supply of a charging device is interrupted, the voltage of the charging device is stabilized, the requirement of constant current is not met, the operation health index, the manual regulation abnormity of a silicon voltage reduction loop, the tripping of an unimportant direct current load direct current switch, a looped network exists in a direct current system, a direct current feeder branch grounding alarm exists; whether the faults or damages of the auxiliary equipment in the storage battery chamber, the corrosion or oxidation phenomena of the connecting sheet and the pole of the storage battery pack, the seepage of the storage battery, the faults of a single charging module, the bad auxiliary contact of the direct current breaker and other general operation defects exist. The service life index comprises a charging device service life index and a storage battery pack service life index. The static safety index of the direct current system comprises a node voltage distribution coefficient and a current distribution coefficient of a feeder line branch.
The second step is that: example analysis
The following is taken as an example of a test result from relevant aspects of four transformer substations to examine the multi-view comprehensive evaluation method for the state of the direct current system for the transformer substations.
The results obtained by performing relevant detection and statistics on four aspects of the four indexes, namely the equipment health index EHI, the operation health index OHI, the service life index and the static safety index of the direct current system, are shown in table 3:
TABLE 3 Transformer substation index detection statistics
The specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the spirit of the invention. Various modifications or additions may be made to the described embodiments or alternatives may be employed by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit or ambit of the invention as defined in the appended claims.
The third step: the calculation of the comprehensive weight taking into account the subjective and objective weights. The invention combines the weights of all evaluation indexes obtained by using the subjective and objective weighting methods to form the idea of final weight, which can objectively reflect the importance degree of each index and reflect the subjective desire of a decision maker. The subjective weight adopts an improved analytic hierarchy process, the objective weight adopts a standard deviation and average deviation method, and the objective weight is synthesized by a linear weighting method. 1) Subjective weight calculation
The degrees of importance among the evaluation indexes shown in table 4 were determined according to the degree of importance ranking.
TABLE 4 subjective weight ranking table
The subjective weight judgment matrix is obtained according to Table 4
Solving the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix A to obtain lambdamax4.0094. Substituting:
satisfies deltaCR<0.1, namely the ordering result of the relative importance degree among the indexes of the single row has better consistency. Go toSubjective weight determination based on improved AHP is carried out on the secondary indexes of the service life index and the distribution coefficient index. The subjective weight ranking tables shown in tables 5 and 6 were determined.
TABLE 5 service life itemized index weight ranking table
TABLE 6 distribution coefficient itemized index weight sorting table
From tables 5 and 6, the judgment matrix A can be obtained1And A2Respectively as follows:
separate solution matrix A1And A2Maximum eigenvalue of (D) to obtain λmax_A1＝λmax_A22, the consistency test is satisfied. Separately solving for λmax、λmax_A1And λmax_A2Corresponding feature vector, [ 0.38640.71870.27470.5086 ]]，[0.6050 0.7962]，[0.5 0.866]Normalized to obtain [ 0.20460.38060.14550.2693]、[0.4318 0.5682]、[0.366 0.634]. Further, the subjective weight of each evaluation index can be determined as follows.
TABLE 7 subjective weighting results
2) Objective weight based on standard deviation and mean deviation
Calculating an evaluation index:
TABLE 8 substation index score results
According to the evaluation indexes, the specified index is a positive index, the larger the index is, the better the index is, dimensionless standardization processing is firstly carried out to obtain:
the standard deviation, average deviation and average value of each index can be obtained by the matrix without considering the weighting coefficient.
Standard deviation sigmai＝[0.0433 0.3644 0.3596 0.3596 0.2269 0.2481]
Mean difference μi＝[0.0375 0.3156 0.3595 0.3595 0.1963 0.2144]
Average value zi＝[0.97500.7896 0.6322 0.6322 0.8572 0.8412]
According to
When α is 0.5 and β is 0.5, respectively, the compounds can be obtained
Weighting vector
Normalized to obtain
Normalizing the result
TABLE 9 Objective weighting results
3) Composite weight
The subjective weight obtained by the improved analytic hierarchy process, the objective weight obtained by the standard deviation and average deviation process are weighted by a linear weighting process, the weighting factor is 0.5, and the comprehensive weight is obtained, and the result is as follows.
TABLE 10 comprehensive weight calculation results
The fifth step: scoring and evaluating system evaluation according to weight
Calculating a result according to the comprehensive weight and the score condition of each index of the transformer substation
Table 9 general division condition of each substation based on this evaluation method
As shown in table 9, when the scores of the substations were obtained based on the weights, it can be seen that the score of the substation No. 1 is 0.9725 and is very close to 1, which indicates that the multi-view comprehensive evaluation score of the substation No. 1 based on the health degree of the operating state of the dc system for the substation is very high, and indicates that the operating state of the dc system is good. The scores of the substations 3 and 4 are 0.7587 and 0.8244 respectively, which shows that the running state of the direct current system is generally normal, but some non-critical parts have problems needing to be checked. The score of the substation 2 is 0.4977, which indicates that the operation state of the dc system is worthy of attention, and as can be seen from table 9, the dc system for the substation is insufficient, so that the system maintenance needs to be timely performed.
The evaluation result shows that the comprehensive evaluation method for the running state health degree of the direct current system for the substation not only can effectively compare the running states of direct current systems of different substations, but also can comprehensively analyze the running states of the substations from the aspects of direct current load power supply reliability, equipment configuration rationality, system running safety, equipment aging degree and the like. The health degree of the operation state is quantitatively evaluated through specific numerical values, the serious condition of the system operation with problems can be more carefully distinguished, the obtained evaluation result is basically consistent with the judgment of the power industry standard, and the evaluation result has credibility and decision reference value of state early warning.
Claims (4)
1. A comprehensive evaluation method for the running state health degree of a station direct current system is characterized in that an evaluation index system based on establishment comprises the following steps:
the first evaluation index and the EHI include whether the DC system equipment configuration for the station meets the following requirements:
(1) a double set of configuration charging devices; (2) double-set configuration storage battery pack; (3) a charging module based on a high-frequency switching technology is adopted; (4) configuring a charging module according to an N +1 mode; (5) an effective voltage reduction and regulation device is configured; (6) whether the rated capacity of the storage battery meets the requirements of the accident discharge or not; (7) whether the capacity of the feeder switch meets the power supply requirement or not; (8) whether the direct current air switch and the fuse meet the level difference requirement or not; (9) whether the main wiring of the direct current system meets the requirement of the technical specification or not; (10) the direct current screen has anti-fault measures; (11) the storage battery pack has counter-fault measures;
the evaluation index II and the operation health index OHI comprise whether the station direct current system meets the following emergency operation defects:
(1) the direct current bus is subjected to voltage loss; (2) the direct current bus is fully grounded; (3) the storage battery pack is on fire or explodes; (4) short circuit of the storage battery pack; (5) the storage battery pack is in an open circuit; (6) fusing an outlet fuse of the storage battery pack; (7) tripping a direct current switch at the outlet of the charging device; (8) the two sections of alternating current power supplies of the charging device are interrupted; (9) a charging device fault or a single set of charging device with 2 or more charging module faults; (10) the silicon voltage reduction loop is open; (11) tripping of the direct current switch causes loss of power of an important protection or control loop; (12) the direct current feeder line branch is completely grounded;
and whether the station dc system satisfies the following significant operational drawbacks:
(1) over/under voltage of the direct current bus; (2) the direct current is grounded discontinuously, but the normal operation of the system is not influenced temporarily; (3) the capacity of the storage battery is reduced to be below 80 percent of rated capacity or does not meet the switching-on and switching-off requirements of the switch; (4) swelling of the storage battery and damage of the shell; (5) the over/under voltage or the float charging current of the storage battery monomer does not meet the requirement; (6) the storage battery heats, and the temperature of the shell exceeds the standard; (7) one path of alternating current power supply of the charging device is interrupted; (8) the voltage stabilization and the current stabilization of the charging device do not meet the requirements; (9) the silicon voltage reduction circuit automatically adjusts abnormally; (10) the manual regulation of the silicon pressure reduction loop is abnormal; (11) tripping a non-important direct current load direct current switch; (12) the direct current system has a ring network; (13) the direct current feeder line branch is grounded and alarmed; (14) the feeder switch uses an AC air switch;
and whether the station dc system meets the following general operational drawbacks: (1) failure or damage to auxiliary equipment in the battery compartment; (2) corrosion and oxidation phenomena exist in the connection piece and the pole of the storage battery pack; (3) seepage of the storage battery; (4) a single charging module failure; (5) the auxiliary contact of the direct current breaker is broken;
evaluation index three, service life index, including charging device service life index RYI _ CH and storage battery service life index RYI _ BAT;
evaluating indexes IV, namely static safety indexes of the direct current system, including a node voltage distribution coefficient UDCDI and a current distribution coefficient IDCDI of a feeder line branch;
the comprehensive evaluation method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating the evaluation index of the station direct current system based on the established evaluation index system;
step 2, carrying out standardization processing on the evaluation index calculation result obtained by the calculation in the step 1: for an index i of a direct current system j to be evaluated, selectively processing the index measurement type by a standardization method:
selecting and processing one: when the index is a positive index, namely the index result is better as the index result is larger, the standardized formula is as follows:
in the formula I, xijIndicating an index calculation result;
{ x of index i, respectivelyijJ ═ 1,2 … n } of the maximum and minimum values;
selecting and processing two: when the index is an inverse index, that is, the smaller the index data is, the better the index data is, the standardized formula is as follows:
selecting and processing three: when the index is a moderate index, i.e. the index data is closer
The better, the normalized formula is:
in the formula
Is the optimal stable value of the index i;
step 3, carrying out subjective weighting based on improved AHP and objective weighting based on standard deviation and average deviation aiming at the standardized processing evaluation index obtained in the step 2;
step 4, based on the subjective weighting and objective weighting results obtained in step 3, performing comprehensive evaluation by an additive weighting method based on combined weighting, specifically defining the obtained subjective weight vector W1＝[w11 w12 … w1m]And objective weight vector W2＝[w21 w22 … w2m]Then the linear combining weight is W ═ k1W1+k2W2(k1+k2＝1,k1≥0,k2≥0)，k1And k2Can be set according to the importance degree of the subjective and objective weights respectively, k1And k2Equal to 0.5 indicates that the subjective and objective weights are of equal importance; the comprehensive evaluation value of the running state health degree of the direct current system for the station to be evaluated by utilizing the additive weighted evaluation model is
Wherein j represents a groupThe number of dc systems is evaluated, and i represents the number of evaluation indexes.
2. The comprehensive evaluation method for the operating state health degree of the station direct current system according to claim 1, wherein in the step 1, the calculation method of each evaluation index specifically comprises:
index one: the calculation method of the equipment health index ED is shown as a formula I;
in the formula IV, eiIs the value of the ith statistical item in the 11 statistical items of the equipment health index, ei1 means that the ith statistical item meets the index assessment requirement, ei0 indicates unsatisfied;
index two: the calculation method of the operation health index OHI is shown as formula five;
in the formula V, nOHIThe number of times of running health evaluation indexes is counted; e.g. of the typeOHI,iThe calculation method is referred to the formula six for the ith statistical value of the running health index;
in the formula VI, ni、njAnd nkRespectively representing the statistical item numbers of the emergency defect, the major defect and the general defect of the operation of the direct current system; e.g. of the typeiIndicating whether the ith emergency operation defect exists, ei1 represents present, ei0 means absent; e.g. of the typejIndicating whether a jth major operating defect exists, ej1 represents present, ei0 indicates absent; e.g. of the typekIndicates whether the k-th yi general defect exists，ek1 represents present, ek0 indicates absent; parameter kOHI,1、kOHI,2、kOHI,3Is a weight coefficient;
index three: the calculation method of the service life index is shown as a formula seven;
formula VII, TyThe service life of the charging device or the storage battery is expressed, and the maintenance recording time of each device is not considered, namely the unit year; t isyeRepresents the design service life of the charging device or the storage battery, and is unit year; t is1And T2Two comparison thresholds, one for age; parameter kRYI,1、kRYI,2The factor is the age;
the index is four: static safety metrics include
The calculation method of the node voltage distribution coefficient UDCDI is shown in the formula eight;
in the formula VIII, nUDCDICounting times of the node voltage distribution coefficient; e.g. of the typeUDCDI,iThe ith statistical value of the node voltage distribution coefficient index is obtained by referring to the formula nine;
in the ninth formula, m represents the total number of the investigation nodes; u. ofdc,lActual operation value representing the voltage of the investigated first node; u. ofl,eA nominal operating value representing the voltage of the first node under investigation; pl% represents a proportionality coefficient; etau,lRepresenting a penalty factor, and correcting the severity of the node voltage deviation from a rated value by adopting a piecewise continuous penalty function shown in a formula ten;
the calculation method of the distribution coefficient IDCDI of the feeder line branch current is shown as the formula eleven;
in the formula eleven, nIDCDICounting the times of the current distribution coefficient of the feeder line branch; e.g. of the typeIDCDI,iThe ith statistical value of the current distribution coefficient index of the feeder line branch is obtained, and the calculation method is the formula twelve;
in the formula twelve, q represents the total number of the investigation nodes; i.e. idc,rRepresenting the actual operation value of the investigated r branch current; i.e. ir,eRepresenting the maximum allowable operating value of the considered r branch current; etai,rRepresenting a penalty factor, and correcting the branch current stability margin by adopting a piecewise continuous penalty function shown in a formula thirteen;
in the formula thirteen, Pr% represents the set proportional threshold.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method for the health degree of the operating state of the station direct current system according to claim 1, wherein the specific method of subjective weighting based on the improved AHP in the step 3 is as follows: establishing a judgment matrix A (a) by pairwise comparison of evaluation indexesij)m×mBy solving the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the decision matrix AmaxDetermined by fourteen checksDetermining the consistency of the relative importance degree sequencing of each index;
in the formula, m is the maximum order of the matrix, namely the number of evaluation indexes; deltaCRIs a random consistency ratio; deltaRIThe index value is a random consistency index of the m-order matrix, and the index value is increased along with the increase of the order number of the matrix; when deltaCR<When the average value is 0.1, the sequencing results of the relative importance degrees among the indexes in the single row of the hierarchy are considered to have better consistency; on the premise of meeting consistency check, the maximum characteristic value lambda of the judgment matrix is solvedmaxAnd carrying out normalization processing on the corresponding feature vectors to obtain subjective weight vectors among all indexes in the same layer.
4. The comprehensive evaluation method for the health degree of the operating state of the station direct current system according to claim 1, wherein the specific method of objective weighting based on the standard deviation and the average deviation in the step 3 is as follows: the standard deviation and average deviation method is to obtain objective weight by calculating the standard deviation and average deviation of the index without considering the weighting coefficient W; the weighting vector W is chosen such that the total standard deviation and/or the total mean deviation of all evaluation indicators is maximal, i.e.:
in the formula fifteen, F (W) is a fitness function; parameters alpha and beta are weight coefficients, alpha + beta is equal to 1, alpha is equal to or larger than 0, beta is equal to or larger than 0, alpha is equal to 0 and only considers the average difference without considering the standard difference, beta is equal to 0 and only considers the standard difference without considering the average difference, and alpha and beta are not equal to 0 and both the standard difference and the average difference are considered; m represents the number of evaluation indexes; n represents the number of direct current systems for the station to be evaluated; sigmaiAnd muiRespectively representing the standard deviation sum and the average deviation of the evaluation index i when the weighting coefficient W is not considered; wiThe index i takes into account the standard deviation and the mean deviationThe objective weight of (a); solving the fifteen optimization problem of the formula can obtain: fifteen the optimal problem solution;
it can always be proved theoretically
Is the only maximum point of the objective function F (W); because the traditional weighting vector generally meets the normalization constraint condition rather than the unitization constraint condition, the unitization weighting vector is obtained
Then, also need to be right
Carrying out normalization processing, namely:
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