CN106355343A - Comprehensive risk evaluating method of power grid - Google Patents
Comprehensive risk evaluating method of power grid Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a comprehensive risk evaluating method of a power grid. The method includes: building a power grid risk evaluating index system, selecting a reasonable index value interval to perform risk grading, setting a corresponding risk quantization value interval, calculating the risk grade and risk quantization value of each operation risk index, calculating the operation risk grade and quantization value of the power grid, performing probability grading on accident occurrence probability, determining the quantization value of the accident occurrence probability, calculating the risk grade and risk quantization value of a grid structure risk index after each accident, calculating the risk grade and quantization value of a power grid structure, calculating the comprehensive risk quantization value of the power grid, and determining the comprehensive risk grade of the power grid. The comprehensive risk evaluating method has the advantages that the risks during the real-time operation of the power grid are considered, the potential risks brought by the defects of the power grid structure are also considered, risk grading is introduced to perform grading on the calculated comprehensive risks, and reference and basis are provided for the optimization of the power grid risks.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of power systems, more particularly, to a kind of power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment.
Background technology
The fault of power distribution network is the key factor of the impact quality of power supply and power supply reliability, only ensure that the peace of power distribution network
Full stable operation, can ensure the safe and reliable operation of whole electrical network.Therefore, it is highly desirable to carry out more power distribution network peaces
The full work defending field, studies to the methods of risk assessment of power distribution network, by risk assessment is carried out to power distribution network, can
In time, comprehensively find tender spots and the weakness zone of power distribution network, and then propose defence and corrective measure, suppression accident effectively
Generation and expansion.
Although still at an early stage on Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System both at home and abroad, pre- particularly with real-time probability of malfunction
Survey still neither one to unify and effective scheme, but the effort through scientific research in recent years and practical work person, sum up and joined
The risk assessment of electrical network is broadly divided into four aspects:
1) set up the equipment outage model of time-varying；
2) quick methods of risk assessment；
3) it is easy to the online risk indicator of scheduling decision；
4) it is based on prevention of risk control decision.
At present power distribution network risk assessment mainly by setting up the outage model of element and calculating corresponding system mode probability,
In conjunction with the historical load characteristic (as year load level) of statistics, calculate wind using the method that risk probability is multiplied with risk schedule
Danger, the subject matter that it exists is as follows:
1) because contingency occurrence probability is multiplied by risk evaluation result with severity of injuries, therefore dispatcher cannot
Understand their concrete composition according to risk indicator, cannot learn accident occur probability and accident the order of severity, this
Have impact on the judgement of system coordinator to a certain extent, and be likely to result in the scheduling of mistake and select；
2) due to being analyzed to the electricity distribution network model set up by the load data of statistics, the therefore knot of risk assessment
Fruit be often one period within result of calculation it is impossible to reflection particular moment power distribution network risk level, and use load
Data is load data in the past, needs following risk level is estimated by means such as load predictions；
3) it is typically only capable to carry out risk assessment in the form of off-line analysiss it is impossible to reflect each of power distribution network appearance in time
Class risk situation, is easily caused the generation of more massive accident it is impossible to accomplish timely accident early warning.
Occurred in that the new approaches of some power distribution network risk assessment in the last few years, launched mainly around real-time risk, by right
Risk schedule and risk probability of happening carry out deciding grade and level to calculate ultimate risk, but this only only accounts for the wind under current state
Danger, and do not consider the potential risk that the deficiency being existed by grid structure is brought.
In view of the problems referred to above that current power distribution network risk assessment exists, find out and a kind of the risk level of power distribution network can be entered
The method that row is effectively assessed comprehensively becomes problem demanding prompt solution.
Content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved is, provides a kind of power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment, both considers to join
The risk level of electrical network real time execution, it is further contemplated that the potential risk brought by power distribution network grid structure defect itself, comprehensively
Reflect the integrated risk level of power distribution network, be simultaneously introduced risk deciding grade and level and grade classification is carried out to the integrated risk calculated,
Optimization for power distribution network risk provides reference and foundation.
In order to solve above-mentioned technical problem, the present invention provides a kind of power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment, comprising:
Step s1, chooses the operation risk index for building power distribution network Risk Assessment Index System and rack risk refers to
Mark；
Step s2, chooses rational desired value interval respectively and each operation risk index and rack risk indicator is carried out
Risk class divides, and it is interval to set corresponding risk quantification value；
Step s3, according to described step s2, the index risk class interval determining and risk quantification value interval computation are each
The risk class of individual operation risk index and risk quantification value；
Step s4, according to the risk quantification value of described step s3 each operation risk index calculated, calculating is joined
Power networks risk grade and quantized value；
Step s5, calculates the probability of malfunction of circuit, and calculates the accident probability that single line fault causes, and accident is occurred
Probability carries out probability and defines the level and determine contingency occurrence probability quantized value；
Step s6, the consequence after each of described step s5 accident is occurred is analyzed, true according to described step s2
The wind of rack risk indicator behind fixed index risk class interval and the generation of risk quantification each accident of index interval computation
Dangerous grade and risk quantification value；
Step s7, the probability of happening quantized value of each accident being obtained according to described step s5 and described step s6 obtain
Accident occur after rack risk indicator risk quantification value, calculate accident risk consequence quantized value, and calculate distribution network structure
Risk class and quantized value；
The distribution that step s8, the power distribution network operation risk quantized value being obtained according to described step s4 and described step s7 obtain
Net rack risk quantification value, calculates power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value, and determines power distribution network synthesis risk class.
Wherein, operation risk index described in described step s1 includes load loss risk, user's power failure risk, important use
Family power failure risk, circuit highest load factor, heavy duty overload number of lines, transformator highest load factor and heavy duty overload transformator number
Mesh totally 7 indexs, described rack risk indicator includes rate of energy loss after fault, amount loss rate and fault during user after fault
Responsible consumer loss totally 3 indexs afterwards.
Wherein, described step s2 specifically includes:
Set different risk class, and according to degree of risk, risk class is ranked up；
For each index, the desired value setting corresponding to each risk class is interval；
For each risk class, set corresponding risk quantification value.
Wherein, described step s3 specifically includes:
Calculate the desired value of each operation risk index；
Determine the risk class of operation risk index according to the desired value of calculated operation risk index, and according to right
The risk quantification value of the risk quantification value interval computation operation risk index answered.
Wherein, described step s4 specifically includes:
According to the risk quantification value of each operation risk index calculated, calculate and run average risk value and run
Excessive risk value；
According to running average risk value and running highest value-at-risk, calculate operation risk quantized value, and determine operation risk
Grade.
Wherein, described step s5 specifically includes:
Calculate the probability of malfunction of circuit, and calculate the accident probability that single line fault causes；
According to calculated contingency occurrence probability, determine contingency occurrence probability grade and calculate contingency occurrence probability quantization
Value.
Wherein, described step s6 specifically includes:
Consequence after each accident is occurred is analyzed, and calculates the desired value of rack risk indicator；
Determine risk class and the risk amount of rack risk indicator according to the desired value of calculated rack risk indicator
Change value.
Wherein, described step s7 specifically includes:
The risk quantification value of calculated rack risk indicator after being occurred according to every accident, calculates this accident and occurs
Accident risk consequence quantized value afterwards；
The probability quantized value being occurred according to accident, calculates the accident risk of this accident in conjunction with accident risk consequence quantized value
Value；
The accident that power distribution network is likely to occur is analyzed, and is calculated corresponding accident wind after every accident occurs
Danger is worth, and calculates rack value-at-risk；
According to calculated rack value-at-risk, determine rack risk class and rack risk quantification value.
Wherein, described step s8 specifically includes:
According to calculated power distribution network operation risk quantized value and distribution network structure risk quantification value, calculate power distribution network comprehensive
Close risk quantification value；
According to calculated power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value, determine power distribution network synthesis risk class.
Wherein, described power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value is bigger, and power distribution network synthesis risk class is lower, then power distribution network synthesis
Risk assessment is less.
The having the beneficial effects that of the embodiment of the present invention:
The present invention proposes a kind of power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment, and the method had both considered power distribution network real time execution
Risk level, it is contemplated that the potential risk brought by power distribution network grid structure defect itself, reflects power distribution network comprehensively
Integrated risk level；
The definition of risk indicator is more comprehensive, covers the various aspects of power distribution network risk, has both embodied circuit and transformation
The risk of device, embodies the risk of loss that may bring after accident occurs so that the change energy of operation risk and rack risk again
Enough embody in integrated risk immediately；
In the calculating process of power distribution network synthesis risk, application risk quantized value and risk class are embodying risk water simultaneously
Flat, give visual understanding in terms of qualitatively and quantitatively two, make management and running personnel that the risk level of power distribution network is had deeper
The understanding entering, and the scheme of reply risk can be found out rapidly.
Brief description
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
Have technology description in required use accompanying drawing be briefly described it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description be only this
Some embodiments of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, acceptable
Other accompanying drawings are obtained according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of schematic flow sheet of embodiment of the present invention power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment.
Fig. 2 is power distribution network synthesis Risk Assessment Index System schematic diagram in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is the 3 feeder line 14 node power distribution net schematic diagram of embodiment of the present invention application.
Specific embodiment
The explanation of following embodiment is refer to the attached drawing, can be in order to the specific embodiment implemented in order to the example present invention.
Refer to shown in Fig. 1, the embodiment of the present invention one provides a kind of power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment, comprising:
Step s1, chooses the operation risk index for building power distribution network Risk Assessment Index System and rack risk refers to
Mark；
Step s2, chooses rational desired value interval respectively and each operation risk index and rack risk indicator is carried out
Risk class divides, and it is interval to set corresponding risk quantification value；
Step s3, according to described step s2, the index risk class interval determining and risk quantification value interval computation are each
The risk class of individual operation risk index and risk quantification value；
Step s4, according to the risk quantification value of described step s3 each operation risk index calculated, calculating is joined
Power networks risk grade and quantized value；
Step s5, calculates the probability of malfunction of circuit, and calculates the accident probability that single line fault causes, and accident is occurred
Probability carries out probability and defines the level and determine contingency occurrence probability quantized value；
Step s6, the consequence after each of described step s5 accident is occurred is analyzed, true according to described step s2
The wind of rack risk indicator behind fixed index risk class interval and the generation of risk quantification each accident of index interval computation
Dangerous grade and risk quantification value；
Step s7, the probability of happening quantized value of each accident being obtained according to described step s5 and described step s6 obtain
Accident occur after rack risk indicator risk quantification value, calculate accident risk consequence quantized value, and calculate distribution network structure
Risk class and quantized value；
The distribution that step s8, the power distribution network operation risk quantized value being obtained according to described step s4 and described step s7 obtain
Net rack risk quantification value, calculates power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value, and determines power distribution network synthesis risk class.
Hereinafter each step is described in detail.
As shown in Fig. 2 in step s1, power distribution network operation risk assessment index system specifically includes operation risk index and net
Frame risk indicator, wherein operation risk index include load loss risk, user's power failure risk, responsible consumer power failure risk, line
Road highest load factor, heavy duty overload number of lines, transformator highest load factor and heavy duty overload transformator number totally 7 indexs,
Rack risk indicator includes rate of energy loss after fault, responsible consumer loss is altogether after amount loss rate and fault during user after fault
3 indexs.
In step s2, risk class division is carried out to each index, and it is interval, specifically to set corresponding risk quantification value
Process is as follows:
A) set different risk class, and according to degree of risk, risk class is ranked up；
B) for each index, the desired value setting corresponding to each risk class is interval；
The risk class dividing condition of 10 indexs described in step s1 and corresponding desired value are shown in Table 1, its apoplexy
The dangerous order of severity is ordered as (order according to degree of risk is up to minimum): the above risk of one-level > prime risk > light breeze danger
> tertiary risk > the following risk of three-level.
Table 1 risk indicator grade classification and corresponding desired value
C) for each risk class, set corresponding risk quantification value.
The risk class corresponding risk quantification value of above-mentioned 10 indexs is shown in Table 2, and especially, stops for responsible consumer
Risk index rsys3With responsible consumer loss index c after faultfu, the corresponding risk quantification value of each risk class is respectively 100,
80th, all index risk quantification value lower limits in 70,60, and table 1 are 60.
The corresponding risk quantification value of table 2 risk indicator grade
| Risk indicator grade | Risk class corresponds to risk quantification value |
| The following risk of three-level | 90-100 |
| Tertiary risk | 80-90 |
| Light breeze danger | 70-80 |
| Prime risk | 60-70 |
| The following risk of one-level | 60 |
Above-mentioned steps s3 calculate risk class and the risk quantification value of each operation risk index, and detailed process is as follows:
A) computational methods of the desired value of each operation risk index are as follows:
Load loss risk indicator rsys1: the degree of this index reflection load loss, can account for according to load loss and always bear
The percentage ratio of lotus is weighing it is also possible to weigh according to the absolute value of load loss.
User's power failure risk indicator rsys2: the situation that this index reflection user has a power failure, can weigh according to power failure amount,
Can also weigh according to the percentage ratio of amount total shared by power failure amount.
Responsible consumer power failure risk indicator rsys3: the situation that this index reflection responsible consumer has a power failure, according to responsible consumer
Power-off condition is weighing.
Circuit highest load factor index rsys4: the line condition of this index reflection heavy duty or overload most serious, according to all
In circuit, load factor highest value is weighing.
Heavy duty overload number of lines index rsys5: there is heavy duty and the journey of overload situations in this index reflection system neutral road
Degree, can weigh according to the ratio that the number of lines being in heavily loaded overload accounts for total line number it is also possible to directly according to
Weighing, the circuit herein load factor being more than or equal to 80% is considered as heavy duty overload to the number of circuit being in heavily loaded overload
Circuit.
Transformator highest load factor index rsys6: the transformator situation of this index reflection heavy duty or overload most serious, according to
In all transformators, load factor highest value is weighing.
Heavy duty overload transformator number index rsys7: in this index reflection system there are heavy duty and overload situations in transformator
Degree, can weigh it is also possible to straight according to the ratio that the transformator number being in heavily loaded overload accounts for total transformator number
Connect to weigh according to the number of the transformator being in heavily loaded overload, herein in by load factor be more than or equal to 80% transformator
It is considered as heavy duty overload transformator.
B) risk class and the risk quantification value of each operation risk index are calculated:
Distribution network data according to collecting calculates each and refers to target value, according to the desired value calculated in Table 1
Find out corresponding risk indicator grade, and calculate the risk quantification value of this index with reference to table 2, the numerical value in interval is using linear
Interpolation method calculates.
Above-mentioned steps s4 calculate power distribution network operation risk grade and quantized value, and detailed process is as follows:
A) distinguish calculation risk index r firstsys1-rsys7Risk quantification value, be designated as a1-a7,Calculated using following formula and run
Average risk value:
In formula: rsysaFor running average risk value；αiFor risk indicator rsysiWeight, and meetCan profit
Determined with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) it is also possible to directly specify size；aiFor risk indicator rsysiRisk quantification value.
B) (i.e. the maximum index of operation risk index risk is corresponding and then to calculate operation highest value-at-risk using following formula
Risk quantification value):
In formula: rsysmFor running highest value-at-risk.
C) using following formula calculating operation risk quantized value:
rsys=γ1rsysa+γ2rsysm(3)
In formula: rsysFor operation risk quantized value；γ1For running the weight of average risk value, γ2For running highest value-at-risk
Weight, and meet γ1+γ2=1, it is possible to use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines it is also possible to directly specify size.
D) according to the power distribution network operation risk quantized value calculating, determine power distribution network operation risk grade in conjunction with table 3.
Table 3 operation risk grade and quantized value
Above-mentioned steps s5 calculate the probability of malfunction of circuit, and calculate the accident probability that single line fault causes, to accident
Probability of happening carries out probability and defines the level and determine contingency occurrence probability quantized value, and detailed process is as follows:
A) using the probability of malfunction of following formula calculating circuit:
In formula: pfProbability of malfunction for circuit；λ is the fault rate of circuit；μ is the repair rate of circuit；σ repaiies for probability of malfunction
Positive divisor, value is shown in Table 4.
Table 4 probability of malfunction modifying factor value table
| Load factor | 0%-20% | 20%-40% | 40%-60% | 60%-80% | 80%-100% | > 100% |
| σ | 0.95 | 0.98 | 1 | 1.02 | 1.05 | 1.1 |
B) assuming that certain plays accident is caused by breaking down in i-th line road in power distribution network, then this plays accident generation
Probability peFor:
Similarly, contingency occurrence probability grade is determined with reference to table 5 according to calculated contingency occurrence probability and calculate thing
Therefore probability of happening quantized value, contingency occurrence probability quantized value is designated as lp, the results are shown in Table shown in 5.
Table 5 contingency occurrence probability grade and quantized value
| Contingency occurrence probability pe | Contingency occurrence probability grade | Contingency occurrence probability quantized value lp |
| <10-5 | Three-level | 80-100 |
| 10-5-10-4 | Two grades | 70-80 |
| >10-4 | One-level | 60-70 |
Above-mentioned steps s6 calculate the risk class of rack risk indicator and risk quantification value after each accident occurs, specifically
Process is as follows:
A) consequence after the generation of each of step s5 accident is analyzed, respectively 3 racks in calculation procedure s1
The desired value of risk indicator, computational methods are as follows:
Rate of energy loss c after faultfe: the energy loss situation of this index reflection whole power distribution network after breaking down, utilize
Formula (6) calculates.
In formula: ρfeFor fault afterload loss rate；sflFor load loss capacity；sslFor overall system capacity；nfcAfter fault
The lossy number of users of institute；nscFor the total number of users of system；Capacity for i-th loss user；For j-th user of system
Capacity；Rating factor for i-th removed user；For the rating factor of j-th user of system, rating factor is equal
Between 0 to 1, and the more important then rating factor of user is bigger；tflFor fault correction time.
Amount loss rate c during user after faultfc: the user's loss feelings in this index reflection whole power distribution network after breaking down
Condition, is calculated using formula (7).
Responsible consumer loss c after faultfu: for the risk assessment of power distribution network, due to responsible consumer impact with common
User compare typically different, therefore fault whether can cause responsible consumer have a power failure be often a side paying close attention to
Face, so using the loss of responsible consumer as a single index, the power-off condition according to responsible consumer after fault to be weighed.
B) result of calculation according to above-mentioned 3 rack risk indicators, determines each net in conjunction with Tables 1 and 2 in step s2
Frame risk indicator risk class and risk quantification value.
Above-mentioned steps s7 calculate accident risk consequence quantized value, and calculate distribution network structure risk class and quantized value, tool
Body process is as follows:
A), after setting the generation of some accident, it is c according to step s5 each rack risk indicator value calculatedfe、cfcWith
cfu, obtaining corresponding rack risk indicator risk quantification value in conjunction with Tables 1 and 2 is lfe、lfcAnd lfu, then utilizing following formula to calculate should
Accident risk consequence quantized value after accident generation:
lf=β1lfe+β2lfc+β3lfu(8)
In formula: lfFor accident risk consequence quantized value；lfe、lfcAnd lfuIt is respectively index cfe、cfcAnd cfuCorresponding risk
Quantized value；β1、β2And β3For respective weights, and meet β1+β2+β3=1, it is possible to use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines it is also possible to directly
Specified size.
B) the probability quantized value l of this accident generation is calculated according to step s5p, and combine after calculated this accident occurs
Accident risk consequence quantized value lf, the accident risk value of this accident is calculated using following formula:
lr=ω1lp+ω2lf(9)
In formula: lrFor accident risk value；lpFor contingency occurrence probability quantized value；lfFor accident risk consequence quantized value；ω1
And ω2For corresponding weight, and meet ω1+ω2=1, it is possible to use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines it is also possible to directly specify size.
C) the line fault accident (not considering multiple failure) power distribution network being likely to occur is analyzed, and is calculated
Corresponding accident risk value after every accident generation, using following formula calculating rack value-at-risk:
In formula: lgFor rack value-at-risk；nbFor distribution network line number；nsiFor corresponding turn of confession after the fault of i-th line road
Scheme number, value is 0,1,2,3, in the case of more than 3 kinds of turning solutions, only takes during calculating3 kinds of maximum sides of numerical value
Case；For the accident risk value of corresponding j-th turning solution after the fault of i-th line road, work as nsiWhen=0Value be taken as
The accident risk value under load condition is lost after i bar line fault；Work as nsiWhen ≠ 0Work as nsiWhen=0εiFor the rack risk penalty factor of i-th line road fault, in order that penalty factor adapts to electrical network scale, no
Value with the penalty factor in score value is different, and value condition is shown in Table 6.
Table 6 rack risk penalty factor table
D) according to calculated rack value-at-risk, rack risk class and rack risk quantification value are determined in conjunction with table 7, will
Rack risk class quantized value is designated as rgri.
Table 7 rack risk class and quantized value
Above-mentioned steps s8 calculate power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value, and determine power distribution network synthesis risk class, detailed process
As follows:
According to step s4 calculated power distribution network operation risk quantized value and step s7 calculated power distribution network net
Frame risk quantification value, using following formula calculating power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value:
rcom=θ1rsys+θ2rgri(11)
In formula: rcomFor integrated risk quantized value；rsysFor operation risk quantized value；rgriFor rack risk quantification value；θ1With
θ2For respective weights, and meet θ1+θ2=1, it is possible to use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines it is also possible to directly specify size.
The integrated risk quantized value more big then power distribution network risk finally calculated is less, and determines comprehensive wind according to table 8
Dangerous grade.
Table 8 power distribution network synthesis risk class tablet
| Integrated risk grade | Integrated risk quantized value |
| The following risk of three-level | 90-100 |
| Tertiary risk | 80-90 |
| Light breeze danger | 70-80 |
| Prime risk | 60-70 |
| The above risk of one-level | 60 |
Power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment in order to show the embodiment of the present invention can reflect power distribution network exactly
Integrated risk situation, the present embodiment carries out integrated risk assessment to the power distribution network of 3 feeder line 14 node as shown in Figure 3.
Fig. 3 interior joint 1, node 2 and node 3 are feed-in node, and remaining node is load bus, and initial operating state is offline
Interconnection switch on road 5-11, circuit 10-14 and circuit 7-16 is in open mode.In order to simulate real system, each is born
The user gradation of lotus node obtains between 0-1 at random, and number of users obtains between 1-10 at random, and assumes the institute of same node
There is the rating factor of user all identical.Risk assessment cycle set is 1 year, and each bar branch trouble attribute is shown in Table 9.
Table 9 branch trouble attribute list
To first wife's electric system, the value-at-risk under initial operating state calculates first, then removes in distribution system
The interconnection switch of 5-11 calculates to value-at-risk again, finally the integrated risk value in the case of above-mentioned 2 kinds is contrasted.Meter
Calculation the results are shown in Table shown in 10 and table 11, and under turning solution accident risk value string in table 10, parenthesized numeral represents mistake load
Situation, under initial operating state, all of interconnection switch is all opened, and in calculating process, the value condition of each weight is: α1=...
=α7=1/7, γ1=0.2, γ2=0.8, β1=0.3, β2=0.3, β3=0.4, ω1=0.4, ω2=0.6, θ1=0.5, θ2
=0.5.
Table 10 accident risk value is analyzed
Table 11 risk evaluation result contrasts
To carry out counting of accident risk value as a example the result of calculation of fault branch 1-4 and 9-12 in table 10 Central Plains distribution system
Calculate explanation.After branch road 1-4 fault, turning solution has following two: 1) closes the switch of 5-11 branch road；2) close opening of 7-16 branch road
Close.For scheme 1) for, its damage sequence quantized value is 100, and accident probability quantized value is 82, and therefore its accident risk value is
96.4；For scheme 2) for, its damage sequence quantized value is 100, and accident probability quantized value is 82, therefore its accident risk value
For 96.4.After branch road 9-12 fault, due to there is no corresponding turning solution, therefore cutting load behaviour can only be carried out to load bus 12
Make, its damage sequence quantized value is 92.05, accident probability quantized value is 90, therefore its accident risk value is 91.64.
Taking table 11 Central Plains distribution system as a example carry out calculation specifications.In terms of operation risk, except circuit highest load factor
Beyond the risk quantification value of index is 94.33, the risk quantification value of remaining index is 100, therefore can run average risk
It is worth for 99.19, running highest value-at-risk is 94.33, being calculated operation risk quantized value is 95.31, and is transported according to table 3
Row risk class is the following risk of three-level.In terms of rack risk, according to the turning solution number in table 10 and turning solution thing
Therefore it is 1.23 that value-at-risk, convolution (10) and table 6 can be calculated rack value-at-risk, is therefore calculated rack according to table 7
Risk quantification value is 91.16, and rack risk class is the following risk of three-level.In terms of integrated risk, according to being calculated
Operation risk quantized value and rack risk quantification value, can be calculated integrated risk quantized value is 91.57, and according to table 8
Obtaining integrated risk grade is the following risk of three-level.
Be can be seen that by data in table 10 and remove after an interconnection switch, the turning solution after line failure is obvious
Reduce (such as branch road 1-4,6-7,2-8,8-9 etc.), the accident risk value of turning solution has also reduced (i.e. accident risk becomes big),
This has also obtained corresponding embodiment in table 11, and the integrated risk quantized value of whole distribution system is decreased obviously, integrated risk etc.
Level improves.The main cause causing the above results is that the minimizing of interconnection switch can turn the line of confession after leading to power distribution network to have an accident
Road tails off, and can only take the measure of cutting load, and the loss that cutting load brings is greater than load therefore in the case of unavoidable
Turn the loss supplying, even those do not need the accident of cutting load, and the number of its turning solution tails off and also results in risk level
Lifting, eventually embody in integrated risk.In above-mentioned example, rack value-at-risk is changed into 0.3 from 1.23, corresponding net
Frame risk quantification value is also changed into 80.55 from 91.16, and integrated risk quantized value is changed into 82.02 from 91.57, rack risk class and
Integrated risk grade is changed into tertiary risk it can be seen that removing the risk of power distribution network after 5-11 interconnection switch from the following risk of three-level
Level significantly improves, and this has reflected the change of system risk level exactly.
By described above, implement the embodiment of the present invention, have the advantages that
The present invention proposes a kind of power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment, and the method had both considered power distribution network real time execution
Risk level, it is contemplated that the potential risk brought by power distribution network grid structure defect itself, reflects power distribution network comprehensively
Integrated risk level；
The definition of risk indicator is more comprehensive, covers the various aspects of power distribution network risk, has both embodied circuit and transformation
The risk of device, embodies the risk of loss that may bring after accident occurs so that the change energy of operation risk and rack risk again
Enough embody in integrated risk immediately；
In the calculating process of power distribution network synthesis risk, application risk quantized value and risk class are embodying risk water simultaneously
Flat, give visual understanding in terms of qualitatively and quantitatively two, make management and running personnel that the risk level of power distribution network is had deeper
The understanding entering, and the scheme of reply risk can be found out rapidly.
Above disclosed be only present pre-ferred embodiments, certainly the right model of the present invention can not be limited with this
Enclose, the equivalent variations therefore made according to the claims in the present invention, still belong to the scope that the present invention is covered.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of power distribution network synthesis methods of risk assessment, comprising:
Step s1, chooses the operation risk index for building power distribution network Risk Assessment Index System and rack risk indicator；
Step s2, chooses rational desired value interval respectively and carries out risk to each operation risk index and rack risk indicator
Grade classification, and it is interval to set corresponding risk quantification value；
Step s3, the index risk class interval being determined according to described step s2 and each fortune of risk quantification value interval computation
The risk class of row risk indicator and risk quantification value；
Step s4, according to the risk quantification value of described step s3 each operation risk index calculated, calculates power distribution network
Operation risk grade and quantized value；
Step s5, calculates the probability of malfunction of circuit, and calculates the accident probability that single line fault causes, to contingency occurrence probability
Carry out probability to define the level and determine contingency occurrence probability quantized value；
Step s6, the consequence after each of described step s5 accident is occurred is analyzed, and is determined according to described step s2
Risk of rack risk indicator etc. behind index risk class interval and the generation of risk quantification each accident of index interval computation
Level and risk quantification value；
The thing that step s7, the probability of happening quantized value of each accident being obtained according to described step s5 and described step s6 obtain
Therefore after occurring rack risk indicator risk quantification value, calculate accident risk consequence quantized value, and calculate distribution network structure risk
Grade and quantized value；
The power distribution network net that step s8, the power distribution network operation risk quantized value being obtained according to described step s4 and described step s7 obtain
Frame risk quantification value, calculates power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value, and determines power distribution network synthesis risk class.
2. method according to claim 1 is it is characterised in that operation risk index described in described step s1 includes load
Loss risk, user's power failure risk, responsible consumer power failure risk, circuit highest load factor, heavy duty overload number of lines, transformator
Highest load factor and heavy duty overload transformator number totally 7 indexs, described rack risk indicator include rate of energy loss after fault,
Responsible consumer loss totally 3 indexs after amount loss rate and fault during user after fault.
3. method according to claim 1 is it is characterised in that described step s2 specifically includes:
Set different risk class, and according to degree of risk, risk class is ranked up；
For each index, the desired value setting corresponding to each risk class is interval；
For each risk class, set corresponding risk quantification value.
4. method according to claim 3 is it is characterised in that described step s3 specifically includes:
Calculate the desired value of each operation risk index；
Determine the risk class of operation risk index according to the desired value of calculated operation risk index, and according to corresponding
The risk quantification value of risk quantification value interval computation operation risk index.
5. method according to claim 4 is it is characterised in that described step s4 specifically includes:
According to the risk quantification value of each operation risk index calculated, calculate and run average risk value and run highest wind
Danger is worth；
According to running average risk value and running highest value-at-risk, calculate operation risk quantized value, and determine operation risk grade.
6. method according to claim 5 is it is characterised in that described step s5 specifically includes:
Calculate the probability of malfunction of circuit, and calculate the accident probability that single line fault causes；
According to calculated contingency occurrence probability, determine contingency occurrence probability grade and calculate contingency occurrence probability quantized value.
7. method according to claim 6 is it is characterised in that described step s6 specifically includes:
Consequence after each accident is occurred is analyzed, and calculates the desired value of rack risk indicator；
Determine risk class and the risk quantification value of rack risk indicator according to the desired value of calculated rack risk indicator.
8. method according to claim 7 is it is characterised in that described step s7 specifically includes:
The risk quantification value of calculated rack risk indicator after being occurred according to every accident, after calculating the generation of this accident
Accident risk consequence quantized value；
The probability quantized value being occurred according to accident, calculates the accident risk value of this accident in conjunction with accident risk consequence quantized value；
The accident that power distribution network is likely to occur is analyzed, and is calculated corresponding accident risk after every accident occurs
Value, and calculate rack value-at-risk；
According to calculated rack value-at-risk, determine rack risk class and rack risk quantification value.
9. method according to claim 8 is it is characterised in that described step s8 specifically includes:
According to calculated power distribution network operation risk quantized value and distribution network structure risk quantification value, calculate power distribution network synthesis wind
Dangerous quantized value；
According to calculated power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value, determine power distribution network synthesis risk class.
10. the method according to claim 1 or 9, it is characterised in that described power distribution network synthesis risk quantification value is bigger, is joined
Electric network synthetic risk class is lower, then power distribution network synthesis risk assessment is less.
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