CN107194574B - Power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss - Google Patents

Power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss Download PDF

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CN107194574B
CN107194574B CN201710356194.2A CN201710356194A CN107194574B CN 107194574 B CN107194574 B CN 107194574B CN 201710356194 A CN201710356194 A CN 201710356194A CN 107194574 B CN107194574 B CN 107194574B
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risk
fault
load
loss
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冯大伟
王震泉
陈曦
韩志锟
刘代刚
施超
乐晓蓉
赵继超
许文超
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China Energy Engineering Group Jiangsu Power Design Institute Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss, which comprises the following steps: constructing a line fault risk factor function; constructing a fault risk probability function under a line maintenance state based on the fault risk factor function; constructing a load loss rate function after the fault; constructing a loss load severity function based on the utility function; multiplying a fault risk probability function and a loss load severity function in a line maintenance state to obtain a loss load risk index function, namely a risk index evaluation model of a line fault in the line maintenance state; and acquiring basic data of the power grid to be evaluated, and calculating the load loss risk index of the power grid to be evaluated by using the risk index evaluation model. The method is beneficial to a power grid manager to clearly know the operation risk points existing in the operation of the system, make a corresponding prevention control strategy according to the corresponding risk level, and adjust and optimize the operation state of the system through prevention control measures so as to enable the system to be far away from the hidden danger operation points and operate within a safety range.

Description

Power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss, and belongs to the field of static security risk assessment of power systems.
Background
Electric power is a fundamental industry and a utility which support national economy and social development, the degree of dependence on electric power is higher and higher with the rapid development of national economy and the continuous improvement of the living standard of people in China, and a power grid becomes an important public infrastructure for national economy and social development, so that higher requirements are provided for the safe operation of the power grid, particularly for evaluating safety risk points in advance and making risk control plans, so that the safety of the power grid is an important aspect which is paid attention and paid attention by power managers, the safety risk evaluation aiming at the power grid is also an important research field which is paid attention by power grid companies, no matter whether a main power grid of 220kV or above or a power distribution grid of 110kV or below, and the static safety risk evaluation method and theory of the power grid go through three development stages, and the common methods comprise the following three development stages:
(1) deterministic analysis method
The deterministic analysis method is a given system topology and parameters, an operation mode and a disturbance mode, does not consider different operation conditions and accident occurrence possibility, and has arbitrariness for selecting an accident set;
(2) probability analysis method
The probability analysis method overcomes the defects of the deterministic analysis method, but the severity of the consequences caused by different accidents is not distinguished, the preventive measures of a plurality of accidents are influenced, the cost performance of the accidents cannot be evaluated, and decision support cannot be provided for the choice between the safety factors and the economic factors of the system;
(3) risk analysis method
The application of the risk theory in the power system is a new topic, and the risk analysis is used as the expansion of the traditional analysis method of the power system, and is widely applied to the fields of planning design, equipment maintenance, safety analysis, prevention control and the like of the power system, but a set of scientific, reasonable and highly operable risk assessment model needs to be established based on a large amount of basic data of a power grid.
However, the existing 110kV and below power grids still have weak power supply links due to the inherent feeding operation mode and the limited power grid scale in the area, and still have great load loss risks in the mode of power grid maintenance or fault. For a long time, electric power workers mainly focus on the research of a safety analysis and evaluation system of a transmission network with the voltage of 220kV or more, and a unified and complete evaluation system for the safety analysis of a distribution network with the voltage of 110kV or less is not formed.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
a power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss comprises the following steps,
constructing a line fault risk factor function P*；
Based on fault risk factor function P*And constructing a fault risk probability function under the line maintenance state
Figure BDA0001299157500000021
Construction of post-failure load loss Rate function PFL；
Construction of loss-of-load severity function S based on utility functionFL(C/E)；
Probability function of fault risk under line maintenance state
Figure BDA0001299157500000022
Function S of severity of loss of loadFLMultiplying (C/E) to obtain a load loss risk index function
Figure BDA0001299157500000023
Namely a risk index evaluation model of the line fault in the line maintenance state;
and acquiring basic data of the power grid to be evaluated, and calculating the load loss risk index of the power grid to be evaluated by using the risk index evaluation model.
Line fault risk factor function P*In order to realize the purpose,
P*number of annual average faults/total length of line
Wherein the annual average fault frequency is equal to the annual average trip frequency.
The probability function P of the fault risk in the line repair state is,
Figure BDA0001299157500000031
wherein l is the line maintenance length, t' is the line maintenance time,
Figure BDA0001299157500000032
is at a set of times XtProbability of occurrence of lower fault E.
Load loss rate function P after failureFLIn order to realize the purpose,
Figure BDA0001299157500000033
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0001299157500000034
for the lost ith user capacity,
Figure BDA0001299157500000035
the power level factor for the ith removed user,
Figure BDA0001299157500000036
for the j-th user capacity,
Figure BDA0001299157500000037
power supply class factor for jth user, NFCFor faults, taking account of the number of all lost users after the respective transfer scheme, NSCIs the total number of users.
Loss of load severity function SFL(C/E) is as follows,
Figure BDA0001299157500000038
where C is the consequence of an indeterminate fault, SFL(C/E) is the severity of C produced in the event of failure E, T is the mean time to failure repair, and T is the expected time to failure repair after evaluation by the decision maker.
Loss of load risk indicator function
Figure BDA0001299157500000039
In order to realize the purpose,
Figure BDA0001299157500000041
the basic data comprise parameters needed in a grid structure to be evaluated and a risk index evaluation model.
And if the power grid to be evaluated is of a same-tower double-radiation structure, the fault risk probability under the line maintenance state is 1.
The invention achieves the following beneficial effects: the invention effectively establishes a safety risk evaluation model of the power distribution network of 110kV or below, is beneficial to a power grid manager to clearly know the operation risk points existing in the operation of the system, makes a corresponding prevention control strategy according to the corresponding risk level, and adjusts and optimizes the operation state of the system through prevention control measures so as to lead the system to be far away from the hidden danger operation points and operate within a safety range.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
As shown in fig. 1, a power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss includes the following steps:
step 1, constructing a line fault risk factor function P*。
Line fault risk factor function P*In order to realize the purpose,
P*number of annual average faults/total length of line
Wherein the annual average fault frequency is equal to the annual average trip frequency.
Step 2, based on the fault risk factor function P*And constructing a fault risk probability function under the line maintenance state
Figure BDA0001299157500000042
The probability function P of the fault risk in the line repair state is,
Figure BDA0001299157500000051
wherein l is the line maintenance length, t' is the line maintenance time,
Figure BDA0001299157500000052
is at a set of times XtProbability of occurrence of lower fault E.
Step 3, constructing a load loss rate function P after the faultFL。
In an actual system of a power distribution network, after a fault occurs, load loss is divided into two parts, namely transferable load and non-transferable load, importance degrees of power consumers are different, and specific embodiment is that power supply priorities are different, and the requirement on power supply reliability is higher for the consumers with higher priorities, so that a power supply level factor is introduced, and the higher the power supply level factor is, the higher the priority is.
Load loss rate function P after failureFLIn order to realize the purpose,
Figure BDA0001299157500000053
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0001299157500000054
for the lost ith user capacity,
Figure BDA0001299157500000055
the power level factor for the ith removed user,
Figure BDA0001299157500000056
Figure BDA0001299157500000057
for the j-th user capacity,
Figure BDA0001299157500000058
a power supply level factor for the jth user,
Figure BDA0001299157500000059
NFCfor faults, taking account of the number of all lost users after the respective transfer scheme, NSCIs the total number of users.
Step 4, constructing a loss load severity function S based on the utility functionFL(C/E)。
The method is characterized in that the mathematical community has a specific construction method of various severity functions, the method is various, a common risk severity measuring theory in the field of power grid safety risk assessment is a utility theory, the utility theory is introduced into the field of power system safety risk, an exponential utility function is selected according to the property of a fault utility function, the application is based on load loss risk assessment, so that the higher the load loss rate is, the higher the severity function value is, and according to the analysis, the load loss severity function based on the utility function is obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0001299157500000061
where C is the consequence of an indeterminate fault, SFLAnd (C/E) is the severity of C generated under the condition that the fault E occurs, T is the mean time for fault repair, and T is the expected time for fault repair after evaluation by a decision maker and is closely related to the classification of the power supply area where the transformer substation is located.
Step 5, carrying out fault risk probability function under the line maintenance state
Figure BDA0001299157500000062
Function S of severity of loss of loadFLMultiplying (C/E) to obtain a load loss risk index function
Figure BDA0001299157500000063
Namely a risk index evaluation model of the line fault in the line maintenance state.
Loss of load risk indicator function
Figure BDA0001299157500000064
Comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001299157500000065
and 6, acquiring basic data of the power grid to be evaluated, and calculating the load loss risk index of the power grid to be evaluated by using the risk index evaluation model.
The basic data comprise parameters needed in a grid structure to be evaluated and a risk index evaluation model. If the power grid to be evaluated is of a same-tower double-radiation structure, the fault risk probability is 1 in the line maintenance state; parameters required in the risk index evaluation model comprise a grid structure, load size, power supply grade factors, line length, expected fault repair time (determined by classification of a power supply area), the total number of users, the number of lost users, fault repair average time and the like.
A specific implementation case is given below, taking a 110kV new region of a local grid in jiangsu as an example, the specific basic data is shown in table 1 (some parts in table one are not written out, such as maintenance time and the like, and need to be confirmed on site by a grid operation department), the average time for fault repair is obtained according to actual statistics, and the specific data is shown in table two, and the data is brought into a model for calculation.
Table-base data
Figure BDA0001299157500000071
Figure BDA0001299157500000081
Mean time to failure recovery
Figure BDA0001299157500000082
Figure BDA0001299157500000091
As can be seen from the data, the local-level utility grid has 197 lines in total, the total length is about 1926 km, and the average trip time of the 110kV lines in 2014-2016 of the grid is 25 times per year, and the risk factor of the trip occurring in a specific time period of each kilometer line is 25/1926-0.013 times/km-1.484 × 10-6 times/km.h.
And calculating the N-1 fault risk under the new area transformation line maintenance state.
The probability that the 110kV new district and the white horse line trip occurs is as follows:
Figure BDA0001299157500000092
the load loss rate of the new zone after the trip of the 110kV new zone-white horse (according to the load importance level, the power supply level factors r from 1 level users to 4 level users are 1, 0.8, 0.6 and 0.4 in sequence):
Figure BDA0001299157500000093
since the new region is located in the class A power supply region, the power supply recovery time of the new region is within 30 minutes, so that the load loss severity function based on the utility function is as follows:
Figure BDA0001299157500000094
finally, the real-time risk indexes based on the lost load are obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0001299157500000101
the method establishes a safety risk evaluation model of the power distribution network of 110kV or below, is helpful for a power grid manager to clearly recognize operation risk points existing in the operation of the system, makes a corresponding preventive control strategy according to corresponding risk levels, and adjusts and optimizes the operation state of the system through preventive control measures so as to enable the system to be far away from hidden danger operation points and operate within a safety range.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, several modifications and variations can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and variations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. A power grid security risk assessment method based on load loss is characterized by comprising the following steps: comprises the steps of (a) preparing a mixture of a plurality of raw materials,
constructing a line fault risk factor function P*；
Based on fault risk factor function P*And constructing a fault risk probability function under the line maintenance state
Figure FDA0002472636230000011
The probability function P of the fault risk in the line repair state is,
Figure FDA0002472636230000012
wherein l is the line maintenance length, t' is the line maintenance time,
Figure FDA0002472636230000013
is at a set of times XtProbability of occurrence of lower fault E;
line fault risk factor function P*In order to realize the purpose,
P*number of annual average faults/total length of line
Wherein the annual average fault frequency is equal to the annual average trip frequency;
construction of post-failure load loss Rate function PFL；
Construction of loss-of-load severity function S based on utility functionFL(C/E)；
Loss of load severity function SFL(C/E) is as follows,
Figure FDA0002472636230000014
where C is the consequence of an indeterminate fault, SFL(C/E) is the severity of C generated under the occurrence of the fault E, T is the mean time to repair the fault, and T is the expected time to repair the fault after evaluation by a decision maker;
load loss rate function P after failureFLIn order to realize the purpose,
Figure FDA0002472636230000021
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0002472636230000022
for the lost ith user capacity,
Figure FDA0002472636230000023
the power level factor for the ith removed user,
Figure FDA0002472636230000024
for the j-th user capacity,
Figure FDA0002472636230000025
power supply class factor for jth user, NFCFor faults, taking account of the number of all lost users after the respective transfer scheme, NSCThe total number of users;
probability function of fault risk under line maintenance state
Figure FDA0002472636230000026
Function S of severity of loss of loadFLMultiplying (C/E) to obtain a load loss risk index function
Figure FDA0002472636230000027
I.e. the line is out of order in the line repair stateThe risk indicator evaluation model of (1);
and acquiring basic data of the power grid to be evaluated, and calculating the load loss risk index of the power grid to be evaluated by using the risk index evaluation model.
2. The load loss-based power grid security risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein: loss of load risk indicator function
Figure FDA0002472636230000028
In order to realize the purpose,
Figure FDA0002472636230000029
3. the load loss-based power grid security risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein: the basic data comprise parameters needed in a grid structure to be evaluated and a risk index evaluation model.
4. The load loss-based grid security risk assessment method according to claim 1 or 3, wherein: and if the power grid to be evaluated is of a same-tower double-radiation structure, the fault risk probability under the line maintenance state is 1.
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CN108110893A (en) * 2017-11-22 2018-06-01 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 A kind of electric network fault grade automatic identifying method of transmission ＆ distribution collaboration
CN108182554A (en) * 2018-02-09 2018-06-19 国网冀北电力有限公司 A kind of power distribution network power failure risk status cognitive method
CN109490715A (en) * 2018-12-25 2019-03-19 浙江中新电力工程建设有限公司自动化分公司 A kind of electric power system fault method of discrimination of extreme environment
CN110060179B (en) * 2019-04-24 2023-04-18 国网山东省电力公司济南供电公司 Multi-voltage-level maintenance plan optimization method and device based on risk overlapping degree
CN111159641B (en) * 2019-11-28 2023-01-24 广东电网有限责任公司 Power grid comprehensive difficulty risk assessment method
CN111401731A (en) * 2020-03-13 2020-07-10 贵州电网有限责任公司 Risk control aid decision-making method and system based on artificial intelligence learning
CN112383056A (en) * 2020-11-26 2021-02-19 国网北京市电力公司 Method and device for evaluating importance degree of automatic standby power supply switching device
CN112614008A (en) * 2020-11-30 2021-04-06 国网北京市电力公司 Load transfer processing method and device
CN115619080A (en) * 2022-11-11 2023-01-17 国网吉林省电力有限公司长春供电公司 Power distribution network post-disaster emergency repair method considering power failure loss of users

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