CN106447533A - Evaluation method based on urban electric energy safety development indexes - Google Patents
Evaluation method based on urban electric energy safety development indexes Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to an evaluation method based on urban electric energy safety development indexes. According to the method, by establishing an index system of the urban electric energy safety development indexes and regarding the generating safety degree, the power grid safety degree and the grid source charge coordination safety degree as secondary indexes, based on the urban electric energy safety development, the urban electric energy safety development condition is evaluated in an omnibearing manner in multiple perspectives from three links of power generation, transmission, and consumption; different weights are set according to the influence degrees of the indexes on the electric energy safety, comprehensive calculation, analysis and evaluation can be performed, the scientific benchmarking index system and evaluation standards are established, the advancement of the electric energy safety level evaluation method is guaranteed, the development space of electric energy safety is mined to the maximum, and powerful theoretical basis can be provided for the development of electric energy safety; and weight endowment of the indexes, consistent and nondimensionalized processing of the indexes, and establishment of scoring and evaluation criteria of the indexes are all bases for comprehensive evaluation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention is evaluated and management aspect in city electric energy, is related to city electric energy safe current situation comprehensive evaluation index,
A kind of more particularly to evaluation methodology based on city electric energy safe development index.
Background technology
Safety is the life of power industry, is the important guarantee of enterprise reform and development, is to improve Business Economic Benefit
Premise, be not just far from being safely benefit.Ensure urban electricity supply safety, be directly connected to the stability and harmony and people of society
Being smoothed out of productive life, it is necessary to give the attention of height.For
Implement national energy-saving and strategy is reduced discharging, the policy of " Safety first, precaution crucial, comprehensive control " is responded, ensure electric power
System safety, maintains social stability, and is that society provides more safe and reliable electric energy, needs a kind of city electric energy safe of structure badly and sends out
Exhibition assessment indicator system, comprehensive in terms of generating degree of safety, power grid security degree, net source lotus coordinate degree of safety, comment with multi-angle
Valency city electric energy safe state of development.
Existing research, it will usually from power supply reliability, the quality of power supply, electrical network reliability are angularly cut, and build and evaluate
Index is reflecting electric energy safe situation.But fail to consider generating, transmission of electricity, three link electric energy safe situations of electricity consumption, therefore
Piece surface analysis can only be carried out to security developments, fail to provide comprehensive, comprehensive analysis.
Content of the invention
The present invention reduces discharging strategy based on national energy-saving, sets up electric energy safe Development Assessment index system, provides one kind and be based on
The evaluation methodology of city electric energy safe development index, coordinates degree of safety etc. from generating degree of safety, power grid security degree, net source lotus respectively
Aspect is comprehensive, evaluate city electric energy safe state of development with multi-angle, considers generating, transmission of electricity, electricity consumption process influence city
The correlation factor of city's electric energy safe, realizes the effective evaluation of the security developments situation to city electric energy.
Technical program of the present invention lies in providing a kind of evaluation methodology based on city electric energy safe development index, by building
The index system of vertical city electric energy safe development index, from generating, transmission of electricity, three links of electricity consumption, is carried out to electric energy safe development
Overall merit；
The city electric energy safe development index includes three two-level index：Generating degree of safety, power grid security degree, source net lotus
Coordinate degree of safety；The two-level index each has multiple three-level indexs；Determine mathematical model and its number of each three-level index
According to computing formula；
Impact according to three-level index to the influence degree, two-level index of two-level index to city electric energy safe development index
Degree, determines the weight of each two-level index and the weight of each three-level index respectively by expert graded；
According to the data of the power system actual motion of collection, the numerical value of each three-level index is calculated；According to each three-level
The numerical value of index and weight, calculate the numerical value of corresponding two-level index；According to numerical value and the weight of each two-level index, city is calculated
Electric energy safe development index.
Preferably, the numerical value of each index of any one-level, is normalized respectively and processes with nondimensionalization；
The weight of each index of any one-level, is to pass through the calculated comprehensive weight of combination weighting method respectively；Institute
Combination weighting method is stated, and is the weight that subjective weights are obtained by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and Objective Weight is obtained by entropy assessment
Weight, then will be integrated by the ratio for setting to the weight of subjective weights and Objective Weight, obtain the comprehensive weight.
To sum up, the security developments based on electric energy consider, for electric energy, " Safety first, precaution crucial, Synthetic for response country
The policy of reason ", builds city electric energy safe development indicators system, is conducive to comprehensively reflecting city electric energy safe state of development,
Also a kind of New Century Planned Textbook will be provided for city electric energy safe Development Assessment, will be that city electric energy safe theory of development is studied with appraisement system
Lay the foundation.
The security developments of electric power are conducive to promoting the stable development of social economy, and power grid enterprises will also safeguard that power system is pacified
Complete stable as one of important process.The present invention thinks that society and the people bring safe and reliable based on electric power netting safe running
Electric energy, maximization benefit be target, set up city electric energy safe development index, for characterizing electric energy safe development degree, press
According to hierarchical structure model, progressively trace to the source step by step, limit index at different levels, the safety of electric energy has been had an X-rayed by horizontal longitudinal direction two lines
Development.
The city electric energy safe development index of the present invention, coordinates degree of safety from generating degree of safety, power grid security degree, net source lotus
Aspect is comprehensive, evaluate city electric energy safe state of development with multi-angle, has considered the correlation of impact city electric energy safe
The factor, set up some sub- indexs carries out index system and the evaluation methodology of systematic analysis technique to the security developments of electric energy, from send out
The security developments situation of city electric energy is systematically evaluated in electric, transmission of electricity, three links of electricity consumption.
Influence degree of the present invention always according to each index to electric energy safe, sets different weights, carries out COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING, divides
Analysis with evaluate, so as to set up science to marking index system and evaluation criterion, to guarantee electric energy safe level evaluation method
Advance, farthest excavates the development space of electric energy safe, is that the development of electric energy safe provides strong theoretical foundation.
Wherein, index weights at different levels give, index unification at different levels, nondimensionalization processes and index at different levels marking and interpretational criteria
Establish the basis for being overall merit.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the evaluation methodology based on city electric energy safe development index.
Specific embodiment
Technological means, creation characteristic, reached purpose and effect for realizing the present invention is easy to understand, with reference to
Specific embodiment, is expanded on further the present invention.
City electric energy safe development index, is urban safety Coordination index again, refers to that electrical network is needed for giving in balancing electric power
When asking, Generation Side is considered with electricity consumption side, it is ensured that the green intensity that can reach under the premise of safety.Described city electric energy
Security developments index, is important ingredient during power system is evaluated, important link in economic development, and its importance is not sayed
And explain, as urban development and stable life line, be not only related to the production in a city, life normally orderly and social
Stable harmony, also related to citizen interests and country interests.
As shown in figure 1, the present invention provides a kind of evaluation methodology based on city electric energy safe development index, comprising following mistake
Journey：
(1) electric energy green index system is set up, comprising setting up the index system of city electric energy safe development index (as table 1
Shown), from generating, transmission of electricity, three links of electricity consumption, overall merit is carried out to electric energy safe development；Determine the number of each bottom index
Learn model and computing formula；
(2) metrics evaluation model is set up.By the calculating of bottom index, according to impact of each index factor to higher level's index
Degree size, determines the weight of each index by expert graded；
(3) basic data (such as current, the history same period, the relevant rudimentary data with base year) of each index is collected, will be each
Achievement data is normalized so as to which result is the number between 0-1, and is successively calculated according to result from the bottom up every
The numerical value of first class index, the numeric weights of each sub- index are added by weighing factor, are obtained higher level and are referred to target value, by that analogy, most
Obtain eventually investigating the value of object (as electric energy greenness index).
Wherein, as the dimension of each evaluation index is different with type, it is difficult to be directly compared, it is not easy to directly to carry out comprehensive
Close and evaluate, therefore there is a need to carries out nondimensionalization process and standardization to achievement data.So-called nondimensionalization is processed
Refer to for all indexs dimension be gone, all desired values are adjusted to same magnitude；So-called standardization refer to by positive index,
Reverse index and appropriate index are adjusted to same direction and are compared.Nondimensionalization is processed and standardization is provided to strengthen
Comparability between index.
Also, when evaluation criterion weight coefficient is determined, mainly by quantitative analysises, compare in electric energy greenness respectively
Relatively important level between individual different affecting factors.Subjective and objective tax is combined in the present invention and weighs model, using combination type weight system
Number determines the weight coefficient of each index, it is ensured that the value of each evaluation criterion weight coefficient is in reasonable level.That is, the present invention is led to
Cross subjective weights method (as analytic hierarchy process (AHP)) and subjective weights model is set up, visitor is set up by Objective Weighting (as entropy assessment)
See and assign power model, then pass through combination weighting method (as linear weighted combination method), to the flexible strategy of aforementioned master/Objective Weighting and
Or evaluation ranking results are combined.The Evaluation formula can consider subjective and objective assign power during play
Effect, can embody the accuracy for sorting between each index weights coefficient of subjective weighting method, can guarantee that index weights coefficient number again
According to the Impersonal authenticity of value, in place of preferably avoiding the defect of single enabling legislation, can be derived that more accurately, more reasonably
Index weights coefficient.
The present invention designs the comprehensive index system of electric power safety development come the peace to evaluate electric energy from multi-angle different aspects
Full level.With reference to table 1, index system is described in detail.
1 city electric energy safe Development Assessment index system of table
Electric energy safe development index in city of the present invention, including three two-level index：Generating degree of safety, power grid security
Degree and source net lotus coordinate degree of safety.Each bottom index computing formula is as follows：
1. generating degree of safety
The safe coefficient of generating degree of safety reflection power production process, mainly includes three three-level index factors：Unit is pacified
Full sex factor, the unit reliability factor and the anti-risk factor of unit.
(1)Unit safety sex factor
It is used for reflecting the ability that generating set stands unexpected disturbance.Suddenly disturbance refers to suddenly-applied short circuit or loses unplanned outage
System element.Safety factor is reflected in the of short duration period whole generating and transmitting system, and power system capacity satisfaction is negative in a dynamic condition
The degree that lotus requires.
1) unit Primary frequency control ability
The judge of unit Primary frequency control ability depends on its assessment period frequency modulation Qualification, and formula is as follows：
In formula：B52For the qualified number of times of frequency modulation；B53Total degree is examined for (moon, season, year) frequency modulation.
For example, to Hydropower Unit, fired power generating unit and combustion engine etc. dead band, speed governor droop, peak load amplitude limit, come into operation model
Enclose, whether the item such as respondent behavior meets requirement and examined, satisfaction gets a mark of 100, on the contrary 0 point.
2) unit AGC ability
1. AGC regulations speed meets and requires, then get a mark of 100, otherwise obtains 0 point.
2. AGC response time meets and requires, then get a mark of 100, otherwise obtains 0 point.
For example, using the fired power generating unit of unit pulverized-coal system, or using CFBB fired power generating unit will
Ask for：AGC (Automatic Generation Control) regulations speed is not less than 1.0% unit rated active power/min；AGC response time is little
In 60s.Using the requirement of the fired power generating unit of the ball type pulverizer system it is：AGC regulations speed is not less than the specified wattful power of 2% unit
Rate/min；AGC response time is not more than 40s.
3) unit AVC ability
Automatism voltage control (AVC) is to realize the important means to reactive power and the control of voltage, is to improve further
System voltage level, guarantee power grid security, stable, high-quality, the effective measures of economical operation.For example：
1. AVC month operational percentage 98%, is reached for 100 points, and the ratio for not up to accounting for 98% in actual operational percentage is multiplied by 100
As a result score.
2. AVC governing speed, 2 minutes interior energies are adjusted to target zone by command request, and performance meets and then gets a mark of 100, no
Meet and then obtain 0 point.
4) unit enters phase/stagnant phase regulating power
Entering and voltage being ahead of for electric current, during unit leading phase operation, electromotor is in underexcited operation state.Stagnant is mutually electricity
Stream lags behind voltage.To entering the effective regulation with stagnant phase, it is possible to increase unit operation efficiency.For example：
1. absorbing reactive power under generator rating power, reaches Q1=[(0.975S)2-P2]0.5Get a mark of 100；In 0～Q1
Between, score 0-100 is divided, linear interpolation.
2. reactive power being sent under generator rating power, reaches Q2=(S2-P2)0.5, get a mark of 100；Reach Q1=
[(0.975S)2-P2]0.5Obtain 80 points；Reach in 0～Q1Between, score 0-80 is divided, linear interpolation；In Q1～Q2Between, score 80-
100 points, linear interpolation.
(2)The unit reliability factor
The guarantee of reflection unit provides the ability of up-to-standard electric energy to power system；By to unit availability coefficient, equivalent
Availability coefficient, operating factor, usage factor, forced outage rate, unit tripping rate and seven indexs of machine set technology management level are comprehensive
Close analyzing generator group reliability.
1) availability coefficient=available hours/statistics period hours * 100%
2) equivalent available factor=(available hours-drop exert oneself hour)/statistics period hours * 100%
3) operating factor=(hours run/statistics period hours) * 100%
4) usage factor=utilize hour/statistics period hours * 100%
5) forced outage rate=forced outage hour/(forced outage hour+hours run) * 100%
6) unit tripping rate
The definition of unit that in net unit, tripping times are most all was related to according to a season or 1 year：Unit tripping rate=
Investigate unit and evaluate the year most number of times * 100% of tripping times/evaluation year tripping times.In such as all units, certain unit whole year
Tripping times are most, and the unit tripping rate is 1.Then the unit tripping index is the annual not tripping operation of 0, certain unit, then trip-out rate
For 0.
7) machine set technology management level
Qualitative index, by expert estimation.It is every that previous year power plant technical supervision quality evaluation score accounts for the ratio of total score
The machine set technology management level score of individual power plant.
(3)The unit emergency capability factor
1) RB index
RUNBACK (abbreviation RB), i.e. unit under unusual service condition, the Important Auxiliary equipment of mainly unit is such as given, air-introduced machine, to
When water pump etc. breaks down, can quickly reduce load to fault target load, it is ensured that unit safety stable operation.RB index generation
The table success rate of set auxiliary machinery fault removal of load.Its computing formula is as follows：
In formula：B32For the successful number of times of removal of load；B33For total removal of load number of times.
2) possesses black start-up ability
The index is qualitative index, has corresponding post expert to be estimated marking, scope 1-100 to system black start-up ability
Point.So-called black starting-up, after referring to that whole system hinders stoppage in transit for some reason, system all has a power failure and (is not excluded for isolated minor scale power net and still maintains fortune
OK), in complete " black " state, other web help is independent of, is started by the generating set in system with self-startup ability,
The generating set of non self starting is driven, is gradually expanded system recovery scope, finally realize the recovery of whole system.
3) unit steady-state behaviour index
Unit steady-state behaviour index=100* steady-state operation qualified time/unit operation time.
2. power grid security degree
Power grid security degree refers to safe coefficient of the electrical network in conveying power process, is mainly made up of following index：
The unqualified time target variance rate of line voltage qualifying object variance rate, electrical network power supply reliability, mains frequency, power grid heat are stable
Absolute contribution degree, Network Voltage Stability absolute contribution degree.
(1)Line voltage qualifying object variance rate
Under different electric pressures, difference between the acceptable level of virtual voltage and voltage qualifying object value, i.e.,：Electrical network electricity
The pressing lattice target variance rate=actual qualification rate of voltage/voltage target qualification rate.
(2)Electrical network power supply reliability
In electrical network actual motion, in the power supply reliability reflection plan phase between actual power time and plan power-on time
Difference, i.e.,：
Power supply reliability=actual power time/(power off time includes scheduled outage, accident to statistics phase whole power-on times
Power failure, provisional power failure).
(3)The unqualified time target variance rate of mains frequency
The index in the actual motion of electrical network, difference between frequency underproof time and its desired value, i.e.,：Electrical network
The unqualified time target variance rate of frequency=actual frequency unqualified time/plan allows the frequency unqualified time.
(4)The stable absolute contribution degree of power grid heat
The stable absolute contribution degree of power grid heat is referred to as electrical network local section has transmission of electricity bottle under a certain method of operation
Neck, associated plant must keep certain start to ensure that electrical network key sections meet thermally-stabilised demand.The index belongs to qualitative finger
Mark, by relevant station, expert is given a mark.
(5)Network Voltage Stability absolute contribution degree
It is all of in system under specified service condition and after being disturbed that Network Voltage Stability refers to power system
Bus is all continuously kept the ability of acceptable voltage.The index belongs to qualitative index, and by relevant station, expert is given a mark.
3. net lotus in source coordinates degree of safety
Net source lotus is coordinated degree of safety and refers to, during balancing electric power supply and demand, reflect the green of supply and demand security performance
Colour index, comprising：Peak-valley ratio, the technical supervision quality evaluation factor, AGC response factor, AVC response factor, primary frequency modulation ring
Answer the factor.
(1)Peak-valley ratio
Load peak-valley difference, as the foundation of power system Load adjustment using electricity wisely measure, is electric power system power source planning fortune
Row provides reference conditions.The index computing formula is as follows：Peak-valley ratio=(per the minimum load of maximum monthly load-this month)/monthly
Peak load * 100%.
(2)The technical supervision quality evaluation factor
Electric power network technique supervision fully demonstrates the management philosophy of " overall process, comprehensive, life cycle management ", only not traditional
Nine technical supervisions, more focus on specific technique supervision stage by stage, and relevant scoring is calculated and considers multiple dimensions, prominent technology prison
The problem that superintends and directs is oriented to and effect.
A) planning, design and equipment purchase stage (100 points of total score)
1. technical supervision participation can be examined and appraised the examination of careful, design, equipment bidding and respectively account for 20 points；
2. pair above-mentioned each proposition technical supervision opinions and suggestions respectively account for 10 points；
3. pair three phases technological supervision work situation forms written final report and accounts for 10 points.
B) device fabrication, examination and transport memory phase (100 points of total score)
1. technical supervision is participated in equipment in-factory supervision and accounts for 20 points, and proposition problem and rectification are implemented and account for 10 points；
2. technical supervision is participated in equipment appearance examination and accounts for 10 points, and proposition problem and rectification are implemented and account for 10 points；
3. pair equipment conveying storage development technical supervision accounts for 10 points, and proposition problem and rectification are implemented and account for 10 points；
4. pair payment equipment development third party's sampling observation accounts for 15 points, it is found that nonconformance and practicable rectification account for 15 points.
C) installation and debugging, acceptance stage (100 points of total score)
1. technical supervision is participated in electrical performance test and accounts for 10 points, and proposition problem and rectification are implemented and account for 10 points；
2. protection is participated in technical supervision and automatization's united test accounts for 10 points, and proposition problem and rectification are implemented and account for 10 points；
3. technical supervision is participated in commissioning test and accounts for 10 points, and proposition problem and practicable rectification account for 10 points；
4. technical supervision is participated in Start-up and Adjustment and accounts for 10 points, and proposition problem and practicable rectification account for 10 points；
5. technical supervision is participated in final acceptance of construction and accounts for 10 points, and proposition problem and practicable rectification account for 10 points.
D) O＆M maintenance stage (150 points of total score)
1. traditional 9 technical supervisions of normal development account for 40 points, issue early warning and alarm singly accounts for 10 points, track and rectify and improve and realize
Closed loop accounts for 10 points；
2. carry out live detection and on-line monitoring accounts for 20 points, detection and monitoring are pinpointed the problems and implement rectification and account for 10 points；?
The qualification rate and availability of line monitoring device and detecting instrument accounts for 10 points；
3. carry out specific technique supervision and 50 points are accounted for, wherein lightning protection, anti-flood control, summer peak meeting and Du Dong, hidden troubles removing, letter
Breath safety inspection, the practical examination of PMS system, current conversion station, equipment familial defect analysiss etc. 8 are indispensability, amount to 40 points, few
1 is detained 5 points, is separately had increase item, is accounted for 5 points per 1, fills it up with 10 and be only divided into.
E) retired disenabling stage (50 points of total score)
1. technical supervision witness equipment is retired scraps disposal and accounts for 20 points, forms reading report and accounts for 10 points；
2. technical supervision proposes the practical suggestion of equipment extension retired or used equipment repetition and accounts for 10 points, is adopted and accounts for 10 points.
F) technical supervision management performance examination (quarterly giving a mark, 100 points of total score)
1. season (moon) report and subordinate list report promptness to account for 5 points；
2. grid equipment quality problems monthly magazine and subordinate list are made a report on integrity and account for 10 points；
3. technical supervision quarterly report (WORD version) is made a report on integrity and accounts for 10 points；
4. quarterly report subordinate list amounts to 47 points of (announcement/early warning single-shot cloth and 25 points of quantity of rectification, overall process technological supervision work developments
10 points of situation, specific technique supervise work 10 points, 2 points of technical supervision training, current season family's defect issue 5 points, current season man
Race's defect rectifies and improves 5 points)；
5.PMS2.0 technical supervision module application situation accounts for 10 points；
6. technical supervision major tasks and innovation account for 8 points.
(3)AGC response factor
Frequency modulation frequency modulation is also referred to as Automation generation control, refers to that generating set provides enough adjustable capacity and certain
Regulations speed, real-time tracking frequency under the adjusting deviation for allowing, the requirement stable to meet system frequency.The index belongs to
Qualitative index, carries out marking judge by corresponding post expert, and all examination conditions are met for 100 points, otherwise 0 point.
(4)AVC response factor
Automatism voltage control can realize the control to reactive power and voltage, can improve further system voltage level,
Ensure power grid security, stable, high-quality, economical operation.The index belongs to qualitative index, carries out marking by corresponding post expert and comments
Sentence, all examination conditions are met for 100 points, otherwise 0 point.
(5)Primary frequency modulation response factor
Primary frequency modulation refers to the frequency character of load intrinsic using system, and the effect of generating set regulating system, comes
System frequency is prevented to deviate the regulative mode of standard.When power system frequency deviates target frequency, generating set passes through speed governing
The automatic reaction of system, adjusts active exerting oneself and reduces the ability of frequency departure.Generating set primary frequency regulation performance can be according to once
Regulation dead-band, speed governor droop, peak load amplitude limit, the scope that comes into operation, five performance indications of respective behavior are examined.The index
Belong to qualitative index, marking judge is carried out by corresponding post expert, all examination conditions are met for 100 points, otherwise 0 point.
It is the concrete calculation of bottom index of the present invention above.Power different to bottom target setting again in the present invention
Weight, carries out COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING, A+E, so as to progressively solve upper strata desired value.Wherein, index weights at different levels give, at different levels
Index unification, nondimensionalization process and index at different levels marking and the establishment of interpretational criteria are the basis of overall merit.
Pretreatment for achievement data includes that index normalization and nondimensionalization are processed, it is intended to improve between achievement data
Comparability；The tax power model of index is using the subjective and objective method for combining, and subjective weights adopt analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and Objective Weight is adopted
With entropy assessment, two kinds of weights are integrated by certain proportion, obtain the comprehensive weight of electric energy green index system.
The real data of City Green electric energy in some examples of the present invention, is accessed, electric energy safe development in city is referred to
Each factor of number, can calculate analysis in temporal sequence (as the continuous several years), or can be by when time value, nearly five annual
Value, base-period value etc. carry out comprehensive statistics analysis, carry out vertical and horizontal statistical analysiss, by forming the post that index changed in recent years
Shape analysis chart intuitively shows, and is predicted.
By the subitem comparative study of each index, can correctly point out that electric energy green real need changes or needs to be changed
Kind direction；In conjunction with each index, carry out regional horizontal comparative research can be found that each department green energy development long slab and
Short slab, and eliminate the experience with operability of these short slabs；Longitudinal comparison research in areal can be policymaker with
And actual power worker evaluates green energy Activities and provides reference frame.For example, the electric energy life to all online power plant
Occurrence state carries out quantitative assessment and differentiation, and the high power plant of index means electric energy " more green ", preferentially will generate electricity, so as to carry significantly
The efficiency of management of electrical network energy-saving distribution is risen, realizes the green energy supply of more clean and effective.
The electric energy Green Index System that the present invention sets up is the Important Platform that energy resources security coordination is distributed rationally.
By city electric energy safe development index, generating safety, power grid security, net source lotus is coordinated safety and can monitor analysis, supervises in real time
Survey, this has important impetus to the intensive use potentials and efficient utilization that ensure energy structure optimizing, especially green energy resource.
The present invention follows green demand driving factor, reviews the track of reinventing of the green value chain, successively decomposes, by each point
Green increment behavioral activity on Zhi Jiedian carries out digitization sign, builds index system, and qualitative and quantitative combining assessment, with number
It is said that words, quantify the greening degree of perspective electric energy value chain, it is that electric energy Green Development Analysis of Countermeasure provides decision-making foundation and suggestion.
Although present disclosure has been made to be discussed in detail by above preferred embodiment, but it should be appreciated that above-mentioned
Description is not considered as limitation of the present invention.After those skilled in the art have read the above, for the present invention's
Multiple modifications and substitutions all will be apparent.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be limited to the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of evaluation methodology based on city electric energy safe development index, it is characterised in that
By setting up the index system of city electric energy safe development index, from generating, transmission of electricity, three links of electricity consumption, electric energy is pacified
Full development carries out overall merit；
The city electric energy safe development index includes three two-level index：Generating degree of safety, power grid security degree, source net lotus are coordinated
Degree of safety；The two-level index each has multiple three-level indexs；Determine the mathematical model of each three-level index and its data
Computing formula；
Impact journey according to three-level index to the influence degree, two-level index of two-level index to city electric energy safe development index
Degree, determines the weight of each two-level index and the weight of each three-level index respectively by expert graded；
According to the data of the power system actual motion of collection, the numerical value of each three-level index is calculated；According to each three-level index
Numerical value and weight, calculate the numerical value of corresponding two-level index；According to numerical value and the weight of each two-level index, city electric energy is calculated
Security developments index.
2. evaluation methodology as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that
The numerical value of each index of any one-level, is normalized respectively and nondimensionalization is processed；
The weight of each index of any one-level, is to pass through the calculated comprehensive weight of combination weighting method respectively；Described group
Tax power method is closed, and is the weight that subjective weights are obtained by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and is obtained the weight of Objective Weight by entropy assessment,
Again will be integrated by the ratio for setting to the weight of subjective weights and Objective Weight, obtain the comprehensive weight.
3. evaluation methodology as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that
Three-level index under two-level index generating degree of safety, comprising in order to reflect that generating set stands to disturb suddenly the unit of ability
Safety factor；
The unit safety sex factor includes multiple level Four indexs further, to reflect unit Primary frequency control ability, unit respectively
AGC ability, unit AVC ability, unit enter phase/stagnant phase regulating power；According to value of calculation or the setting value of each level Four index, and
In conjunction with by the weight that combination weighting method is each level Four target setting, the numerical value of the unit safety sex factor is calculated；
Wherein, the value of calculation of unit Primary frequency control ability, examines total degree to obtain by solving the qualified number of times of 100 × frequency modulation/frequency modulation
Arrive；
The setting value of unit AGC ability, by judging whether AGC regulations speed meets requirement come value, when meeting, value is
100, when being unsatisfactory for, value is 0；Or, by judging whether AGC response time meets requirement come value, when meeting, value is
100, when being unsatisfactory for, value is 0；
The setting value of unit AVC ability, by judging whether AVC month operational percentage reaches 98% come value, when reaching, value is
100, the ratio for accounting for 98% according to actual operational percentage when not up to is multiplied by 100 result as value；Or, by judging AVC
Whether governing speed disclosure satisfy that the condition for being adjusted to target zone by command request in 2 minutes carrys out value, meet condition
Value is 100, and ungratified value is 0；
Unit enters the setting value of phase/stagnant phase regulating power, by judging absorbing reactive power under generator rating power, if reach
To Q1Carry out value：Reach Q1When value be 100, in 0～Q1Between when value linear interpolation in 0 to 100；Or, by judging
Reactive power is sent under generator rating power, if reach Q1、Q2Carry out value：Reach Q2When value be 100, reach Q1When take
It is worth for 80, in 0～Q1Between when value linear interpolation in the 0-80, in Q1～Q2Between when value linear interpolation in the 80-100；
Wherein,
Q1=[(0.975S)2-P2]0.5
Q2=(S2-P2)0.5.
4. evaluation methodology as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that
Three-level index under two-level index generating degree of safety, comprising in order to reflect unit to the up-to-standard electric energy of power system offer
The unit reliability factor of ability；
The unit safety sex factor includes multiple level Four indexs further：Availability coefficient, equivalent available factor, operating factor,
Usage factor, forced outage rate, unit tripping rate, machine set technology management level；According to the value of calculation of each level Four index or set
Definite value, and combine the number that the unit reliability factor is calculated by the weight that combination weighting method is each level Four target setting
Value；Wherein,
Availability coefficient=available hours/statistics period hours * 100%
Equivalent available factor=(available hours-drop exert oneself hour)/statistics period hours * 100%
Operating factor=(hours run/statistics period hours) * 100%
Usage factor=utilize hour/statistics period hours * 100%
Forced outage rate=forced outage hour/(forced outage hour+hours run) * 100%
Unit tripping rate=investigation unit evaluates the most number of times * 100% of year tripping times/evaluation year tripping times；
Machine set technology management level, the ratio for accounting for total score by calculating previous year power plant technical supervision quality evaluation score is obtained
Arrive.
5. evaluation methodology as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that
Three-level index under two-level index generating degree of safety, comprising the unit emergency capability factor, which includes multiple level Four further
Index：RB index, black start-up ability, unit steady-state behaviour index；According to value of calculation or the setting value of each level Four index, and tie
Close the numerical value that the unit reliability factor is calculated by the weight that combination weighting method is each level Four target setting；Wherein
RB index, reflects the success rate of set auxiliary machinery fault removal of load, by solving：The successful number of times of 100 × removal of load/total
Removal of load number of times；
Black start-up ability, reflection system is started by the generating set of self-startup ability after hindering stoppage in transit for some reason and recovers whole system
Ability, sets value in the range of 1-100；
Unit steady-state behaviour index=100* steady-state operation qualified time/unit operation time.
6. evaluation methodology as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that
Three-level index under two-level index power grid security degree, comprising：
The actual qualification rate of line voltage qualifying object variance rate=voltage/voltage target qualification rate
Electrical network power supply reliability=actual power time/statistics phase whole power-on times
The unqualified time target variance rate of mains frequency=actual frequency unqualified time/plan allows the frequency unqualified time.
The stable absolute contribution degree of power grid heat, reflects that ensureing electrical network key sections by holding start meets the energy of thermally-stabilised demand
Power, is the qualitative index for setting value by expert graded；
Network Voltage Stability absolute contribution degree, after reflecting under specified service condition and being disturbed, in system, all buses continue
The ability of acceptable voltage is kept, and is the qualitative index that value is set by expert graded.
7. evaluation methodology as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that
Two-level index source net lotus coordinates the three-level index under degree of safety, comprising：
Peak-valley ratio=(per the minimum load of maximum monthly load-this month)/per maximum monthly load * 100%
AGC response factor, reflects whether generating set possesses and provides enough adjustable capacity and certain regulations speed, permitting
Perhaps under adjusting deviation, real-time tracking frequency, to meet the ability of system frequency stability requirement, is to set to take by expert graded
The qualitative index of value；When judging that satisfaction meets the ability corresponding conditionses, value is 100, and otherwise value is 0；
AVC response factor, reflects whether possess to reactive power and voltage-controlled ability, is to set to take by expert graded
The qualitative index of value；When judging that satisfaction meets the ability corresponding conditionses, value is 100, and otherwise value is 0；
Primary frequency modulation response factor, when reflection power system frequency deviates target frequency, generating set passes through oneself of governing system
The dynamic ability that reacts to adjust active minimizing frequency departure of exerting oneself, is the qualitative index for setting value by expert graded；Sentence
When disconnected satisfaction meets the ability corresponding conditionses, value is that 100, otherwise value is 0.
8. evaluation methodology as claimed in claim 7, it is characterised in that
Two-level index source net lotus coordinates the three-level index under degree of safety, also includes the technical supervision quality evaluation factor, and which is basis
Planning, design and equipment purchase stage, device fabrication, examination and transport memory phase, installation and debugging, acceptance stage, fortune
The dimension maintenance stage, retired disenabling stage, technical supervision management performance examines the stage, sets the qualitative of value by expert graded
Index.
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