CN106384210B - A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment maintenance prioritization method based on maintenance risk income - Google Patents
A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment maintenance prioritization method based on maintenance risk income Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment maintenance prioritization method based on maintenance risk income, the following steps are included: power transmission and transforming equipment information collection, collects environment, system and the facility information of equipment required for simultaneously analytical equipment risk source identification link and equipment risk evaluation link；The identification of power transmission and transforming equipment risk source, the information acquired using information collection link, the uncertain factor and security risk face to equipment are carried out identification and classification quantitative, establish equipment outage model；The assessment of equipment fault sequence severity carries out topological analysis, Load flow calculation, and simulating grid Run-time scenario to power grid according to the probability of malfunction of equipment stoppage in transit situation and each running equipment, the synthesis sequence severity of power grid after assessment equipment failure；The sequencing problem of the overhaul of the equipments priority in the case where overhauling resource limited circumstances is solved based on the overhaul of the equipments sequence of maintenance risk income, provides theory and technology support for the arrangement of service work.The invention belongs to power transmission and transforming equipments to overhaul field.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power transmission and transforming equipments to overhaul field, and in particular to a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment overhauls priority ranking side
Method.
Background technique
As typical asset intensive enterprise, electric power enterprise is paid in the fortune inspection of power transmission and transforming equipment, maintenance every year
A large sum of expense.Periodic plan compared to blindness overhauls, and repair based on condition of component can be according to the state and power grid of power equipment itself
Operating status make maintenance judgement, more economical and efficient.
With deepening continuously for smart grid construction, power electronic technique, the communication technology, network technology, big data technology
And the combination of electric system is more closely, every accurate Condition Monitoring Technology, advanced failure predication and diagnostic techniques, perfect
The repairs based on condition of component the relevant technologies such as status assessment directive/guide make constant progress, for repair based on condition of component system it is perfect provide it is broader
Space.
Mostly risk maintenance at present is distinguished as with the benefit of Risk Constraint and distinct device maintenance mode in maintenance process
The Optimal Maintenance for realizing equipment is considered, does not consider the On The Choice for needing repair apparatus generally.Traditional equipment Risk maintenance decision
Often using the size of probability of equipment failure or risk indicator as in a manner of the selection of Awaiting Overhaul cluster tool, although simple real
With, but actually some equipment by own material aging limitation or weather environment due to being influenced, nothing being overhauled
The failure probability and equipment Risk of equipment is greatly reduced in method.Therefore using the above method can not select really need maintenance,
It is able to achieve the maintenance maximized equipment of effect.And the index of current equipment risk evaluation is excessively single, does not account for equipment event
Hinder the coupled relation between consequence, affects the accuracy of Awaiting Overhaul equipment selection to a certain extent.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to: a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment maintenance priority ranking side based on maintenance risk income is provided
Method to solve the sequencing problem of the overhaul of the equipments priority in the case where overhauling resource limited circumstances, and then mentions for the arrangement of service work
It is supported for theory and technology.
To solve the above problems, providing a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment maintenance priority ranking side based on maintenance risk income
Method, comprising the following steps:
Step 1. power transmission and transforming equipment information collection
Collect and the environment of equipment required for analytical equipment risk source identification link and equipment risk evaluation link, system and
Facility information.
The identification of step 2. power transmission and transforming equipment risk source
Using information collection link acquire information, the uncertain factor and security risk faced to equipment carry out identification and
Classification quantitative establishes equipment outage model, specific as follows:
2-1. establishes the probability of equipment failure model for being suitable for risk assessment
Establish the defeated change for being able to respond ageing failure situation, equipment own health status and weather, environmental conditions
Electric equipment failure probability model, model expression are as follows:
P=(β/η) (Teq/η)β-1·exp(γ1Z1+γ2Z2+γ3)
In formula, η is scale parameter；TeqFor the equivalent runing time of equipment, runing time is divided into n by equipment running temperature
A minizone ti, temperature θ in each minizoneHiIt is constant, it is obtained after cumulative；Z1For equipment health status classification；Z2For weather environment
Classification, is simulated, normal weather environment (Z using three-state model2=1), bad weather circumstances (Z2=2), catastrophe weather environment (Z2
=3)；β,γ1、γ2、γ3To carry out the parameter that Maximum-likelihood estimation fitting obtains by historical sample.
2-2. determines parameter η, Z in failure probability model according to device type1, Teq；
2-3. according to same type device history operation data carry out maximum likelihood fitting obtain failure probability model parameter beta,
γ1、γ2、γ3；
2-4. is according to maintenance front and back equipment service condition analysis maintenance front and back probability of equipment failure；
The assessment of step 3. equipment fault sequence severity
Topological analysis, Load flow calculation are carried out to power grid according to the probability of malfunction of equipment stoppage in transit situation and each running equipment, and
Using the methods of Monte-Carlo Simulation simulating grid Run-time scenario, the synthesis sequence severity of power grid after assessment equipment failure.From
Influence level to divide, equipment fault sequence severity is divided into: equipment loses severity, personal environmental loss severity, system damage
Lose four severity, social loss's severity levels.It is specific as follows:
3-1. establishes different operation of power networks scenes by the states choosing method such as Monte-Carlo Simulation
3-2. equipment loses analysis of severity
It is the required human and material resources maintenance cost of maintenance or renewal expense L after equipment fault that equipment, which loses severity,M；
3-3. person environmental loss analysis of severity
Personal environmental loss is personal injury and environmental pollution improvement expense L caused by equipment faultP；
3-4. system loss analysis of severity
According to network operation risk assessment method, in conjunction with electric power accident and risk relevant regulations, by system loss severity
LGFollowing 5 are decomposed into, need to be analyzed respectively:
1) subtract for load type system loss severity LG1, according to application scenarios, by subtracting the size for load total amount or subtract confession
Load accounts for the ratio of load total amount to measure.
2) heavy duty or overload type system loss severity LG2, include the heavy duty and overload of equipment and transmission cross-section, pass through
Actual loading value and the ratio of rated value divide severity grade.
3) variation type system loss severity LG3, including low-voltage severity and two kinds of overvoltage severity.
4) grid disconnection type system loss severity LG4, the failure stoppage in transit of part key equipment is possible to will cause in power grid
System part off-the-line, the voltage class of partial electric grid is tight to determine after judging whether there is off-the-line and off-the-line according to power network topology
Severe grade.
5) plant stand or responsible consumer full cut-off type system loss severity LG5, there are some crucial plant stands and again in operation of power networks
Want user, it is possible to because of certain plant stands and responsible consumer full cut-off caused by equipment fault, cause biggish power grid accident.For plant stand
Full cut-off type system loss severity determines severity grade by plant stand voltage class, tight for responsible consumer full cut-off type system loss
Severe determines risk class by responsible consumer grade, and responsible consumer grade is true according to related management method by local people's governments
It is fixed.
Since system loss severity index can not be quantified with exact numerical values recited, this method divides system loss severity
For level-one, second level, three-level and without Consequential Loss it is total to level Four, wherein level-one is most serious grade, and specific sequence severity is defined the level scheme
It is as shown in table 1:
1 sequence severity of table deciding grade and level scheme
Note: taking highest severity grade present in system as system severity grade, if being not admitted to one, two, three
Then system loss severity is free of losses grade to grade severity.
3-5. social loss analysis of severity
Social loss's severity consists of two parts, and a part is that load subtracts for caused GDP loss, and another part is disconnected
Electricity subtracts the loss of reputation caused by confession, power grid accident, economical social loss's severity function expression are as follows:
LS1=Pgdp×LG1
In formula, PgdpFor comprehensive electricity production ratio；
Reputation type social loss's severity is related with system loss severity grade and common people's attention rate, and wherein the common people pay close attention to
Degree is divided into general, concern and very pays close attention to three classes.When system their location holding the conventions such as G20, World Expo,
When activity or race, common people's attention rate should rise to very level of interest；And when system their location is meagrely-populated
When non-developed regions, common people's attention rate should fall to general grade；Attention rate of common people is concern in the case of other.
3-6. package failure effect analysis of severity
According to the characteristic manner of severity index, many indexs are divided into sequence severity economic indicator and sequence severity is non-
Two class of economic indicator, the relationship and classification between index are as shown in Figure 1；
Sequence severity economic indicator C1Severity L is lost by equipmentM, personal environmental loss LPWith economical social loss
Severity LS1It constitutes, expression formula are as follows:
C1=LM+LP+LS1
Sequence severity non-economy index C2Consider the deciding grade and level of system loss severity and popularity type social loss severity two
Aspect factor, non-economy index sequence severity ranking matrix as shown in Figure 2 determine, wherein 0 grade is free of losses grade；
Sequence severity index C are as follows:
C=C1+k(C2)
In formula, k is that economy converts function, and You Yunjian personnel choose according to practical situations, and function k, which is determined, to be divided
Desorption device failure effect severity luck examines personnel to the differentiation degree of concern of economical index and non-economy type index.
3-7. normalizes the analysis of equipment fault sequence severity
It, will after adoption status choosing method obtains the package failure effect severity C in N number of operation of power networks scene
Its sequence severity index C for normalizing finally#:
Overhaul of the equipments sequence of the step 4. based on maintenance risk income
Selection maintenance risk income, that is, decision of the reduction amount of equipment Risk as overhaul of the equipments priority ranking after overhauling
Amount:
R=Δ RISK=p0C0-p′C′
In formula, △ RISK is the reduction amount of equipment Risk after maintenance, p0、p’、C0, C ' be maintenance front and back equipment failure it is general
Rate and normalization sequence severity index C#, equipment is ranked up using decision content R as decision figureofmerit, in conjunction with the resource of maintenance
Constraint, acquisition need most the cluster tool repaired under prescribed conditions.
Compared with prior art, beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:
1) start with from power transmission and transforming equipment probability of malfunction and failure effect, the decision content of overhaul of the equipments priority is implemented to
It is objective effective on overhaul of the equipments risk income；
2) it is possible to equipment fault to integrate response ageing failure, health status and weather environment variation for failure probability model
Property influence, consider comprehensively influence probability of equipment failure associated risk factors；
3) monte carlo modelling operation of power networks scene is used, is divided from equipment, personal environment, system, society etc. are multi-level
The economy of desorption device and noneconomic loss severity, improve the convincingness of equipment fault sequence severity evaluation result
And rigor；
4) setting of being overhauled can be filtered out according to relevant device in different application condition and system parameter differentiation
Standby set, with good application prospect.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is sequence severity index relational graph of the invention；
Fig. 2 is non-economy index sequence severity ranking matrix of the invention；
Fig. 3 is RBTS system wiring figure of the invention.
Specific embodiment
To make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be made below further detailed
Description,
Embodiment:
By taking RBTS system as an example, realize that the power transmission and transforming equipment based on maintenance risk income overhauls prioritization method.
RBTS system is a six bus integrated systems with 11 generators and 9 transmission lines of electricity, detailed can be reflected actual
Integrity problem, wiring diagram are as shown in Figure 3.The system most important feature is generating capacity abundance and transmittability is insufficient, because
This may be assumed that when there is generating set failure, spare unit can put into operation to guarantee the stable operation of system.Work as system simultaneously
When the method for operation changes, system can be made to be maintained at a preferable operating status by the generated energy of regulator generator group.
It is considered the following scenario premised on above-mentioned condition: due to the limitation of Maintenance Resource, in following time between overhauls(TBO)
Interior, overhauling company's route group can only overhaul three-line therein, and examination overhaul to 9 routes in system preferential
Grade sorts and determines the route overhauled.
The acquisition of step (1) transmission line information
It collects and the identification of analytical equipment risk source link and all kinds of environment of route required for equipment risk evaluation link, is
System and facility information, as shown in table 2.
2 line information acquisition parameter of table
The identification of step (2) transmission line of electricity risk source
The information acquired using information collection link, all kinds of uncertain factors and security risk face to route are distinguished
Knowledge and classification quantitative, establish line outage model.It is specific as follows:
2-1. establishes the line fault probabilistic model for being suitable for risk assessment
Model expression are as follows:
P=(β/η) (Teq/η)β-1·exp(γ1Z1+γ2Z2+γ3)
In formula, η is scale parameter；TeqFor the equivalent runing time of equipment；Z1For equipment health status classification；Z2For day compression ring
Border classification；β,γ1、γ2、γ3To carry out the parameter that Maximum-likelihood estimation fitting obtains by historical sample.
2-2. determines parameter η, Z in failure probability model according to device type1, Teq
When formula 7 is applied to transmission line of electricity, Z1Directive/guide can be assessed according to transmission line status is divided into normal (Z1=1), pay attention to
(Z1=2), abnormal (Z1=3), serious (Z1=4) level Four, scale parameter η and the equivalent running time T of equipmenteqIt is respectively as follows:
η=Qexp (P θH)
In formula, P, Q are line parameter circuit value, θHFor constant reference temperature.
2-3. according to same type device history operation data carry out maximum likelihood fitting obtain failure probability model parameter beta,
γ1、γ2、γ3, as shown in table 3.
3 material parameter of table
2-4. is according to maintenance front and back equipment service condition analysis maintenance front and back probability of equipment failure, as shown in table 4.
4 route day of table probability of malfunction
The assessment of step (3) equipment fault sequence severity
Topological analysis, trend meter are carried out to power grid according to the probability of malfunction of transmission line of electricity stoppage in transit situation and each running equipment
It calculates, and using the methods of Monte-Carlo Simulation simulating grid Run-time scenario, the synthesis consequence for assessing power grid after certain equipment fault is tight
Severe.It is specific as follows:
3-1. establishes different operation of power networks scenes by the states choosing method such as Monte-Carlo Simulation
3-2. equipment loses analysis of severity
3-3. person environmental loss analysis of severity
In conjunction with 3-2 save equipment damaed cordition is as shown in table 5.
The economic shape parameter of 5 route of table
3-4. system loss analysis of severity
According to network operation risk assessment method, in conjunction with electric power accident and risk relevant regulations, by system loss severity
LGFollowing 5 are decomposed into, need to be analyzed respectively:
1) subtract for load type system loss severity LG1。
2) heavy duty or overload type system loss severity LG2。
3) variation type system loss severity LG3。
4) grid disconnection type system loss severity LG4。
5) plant stand or responsible consumer full cut-off type system loss severity LG5。
Above five all in accordance with real system operating condition simulation analysis.
3-5. social loss analysis of severity
Common people's attention rate be it is general, P is compared in comprehensive electricity productiongdpFor 10 yuan/kilowatt hour, in conjunction with 3-4 nodule fruit simulation analysis.
3-6. package failure effect analysis of severity
Economy is enabled to convert function k are as follows:
According to real system operating condition simulation analysis.
3-7. normalizes the analysis of equipment fault sequence severity
It, can after adoption status choosing method obtains the package failure effect severity C in N number of operation of power networks scene
Its normalizing is obtained to final sequence severity index C#, until Monte-Carlo step obtain result meet required precision, such as
Shown in table 6.
6 line fault sequence severity of table
Overhaul of the equipments sequence of step (4) based on maintenance risk income
Selection maintenance risk income, that is, decision of the reduction amount of equipment Risk as overhaul of the equipments priority ranking after overhauling
Amount, the maintenance priority decisions amount for obtaining each route are as shown in table 7.
7 line fault sequence severity of table
By table 7 as it can be seen that route 7, route 2, route 6 are that is filtered out need most the route of maintenance.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment based on maintenance risk income overhauls prioritization method, which is characterized in that including following
Step:
Step 1. power transmission and transforming equipment information collection, is collected and analytical equipment risk source recognizes link and equipment risk evaluation link institute
Need environment, system and the facility information of equipment；
The identification of step 2. power transmission and transforming equipment risk source, the information acquired using information collection link face equipment uncertain
Factor and security risk carry out identification and classification quantitative, establish equipment outage model；
Step 3. equipment fault sequence severity assessment, according to the probability of malfunction of equipment stoppage in transit situation and each running equipment to power grid
Topological analysis, Load flow calculation, and simulating grid Run-time scenario are carried out, the synthesis sequence severity of power grid after assessment equipment failure；
Overhaul of the equipments sequence of the step 4. based on maintenance risk income, selection maintenance risk income, that is, equipment Risk after overhauling
Decision content of the reduction amount as overhaul of the equipments priority ranking:
R=Δ RISK=p0C0-p′C′
In formula, △ RISK is the reduction amount of equipment Risk after maintenance, p0、p’、C0, C ' be maintenance front and back equipment probability of malfunction and
Normalize sequence severity index C#, equipment is ranked up using decision content R as decision figureofmerit, in conjunction with maintenance resource about
Beam, acquisition need most the cluster tool repaired under prescribed conditions；
In step 2, the specific method is as follows for the identification of power transmission and transforming equipment risk source:
Step 2-1. establishes the probability of equipment failure model for being suitable for risk assessment, and foundation is able to respond ageing failure situation, sets
The power transmission and transforming equipment failure probability model of standby own health status and weather, environmental conditions, model expression are as follows:
P=(β/η) (Teq/η)β-1·exp(γ1Z1+γ2Z2+γ3)；
In formula, η is scale parameter；TeqFor the equivalent runing time of equipment；Z1For equipment health status classification；Z2For weather environment point
Grade；β,γ1、γ2、γ3To carry out the parameter that Maximum-likelihood estimation fitting obtains by historical sample；
Step 2-2. determines parameter η, Z in failure probability model according to device type1, Teq；
Step 2-3. according to same type device history operation data carry out maximum likelihood fitting obtain failure probability model parameter beta,
γ1、γ2、γ3；
Step 2-4. is according to maintenance front and back equipment service condition analysis maintenance front and back probability of equipment failure.
2. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment based on maintenance risk income overhauls prioritization method according to claim 1,
Be characterized in that, divide from level is influenced, equipment fault sequence severity point: it is serious that equipment loses severity, personal environmental loss
Four degree, system loss severity, social loss's severity levels, specific appraisal procedure are as follows:
Step 3-1. establishes different operation of power networks scenes by the states choosing method such as Monte-Carlo Simulation；
Step 3-2. equipment loses analysis of severity, and it is maintenance required manpower, object after equipment fault that equipment, which loses severity,
Power maintenance cost or renewal expense LM；
Step 3-3. person environmental loss analysis of severity, personal environmental loss are personal injury and ring caused by equipment fault
Border pollution abatement costs LP；
System loss severity is divided into level-one, second level, three-level and without Consequential Loss by step 3-4. system loss analysis of severity
Level Four altogether, wherein level-one is most serious grade；
Step 3-5. social loss analysis of severity, social loss's severity consist of two parts, and a part is that load subtracts for leading
The GDP of cause loses, and another part is power-off, subtracts the loss of reputation caused by confession, power grid accident, economical social loss's severity letter
Number expression formula are as follows:
LS1=Pgdp×LG1
In formula, PgdpFor comprehensive electricity production ratio；
Many indexs are divided by step 3-6. package failure effect analysis of severity according to the characteristic manner of severity index
Two class of sequence severity economic indicator and sequence severity non-economy index；
Sequence severity economic indicator C1Severity L is lost by equipmentM, personal environmental loss LPIt is serious with economical social loss
Spend LS1It constitutes, expression formula are as follows:
C1=LM+LP+LS1
Sequence severity non-economy index C2Consider system loss severity deciding grade and level and two aspect of popularity type social loss severity because
Element is determined by non-economy index sequence severity ranking matrix, wherein 0 grade is free of losses grade；
Sequence severity index C are as follows:
C=C1+k(C2)
In formula, k is that economy converts function, and You Yunjian personnel choose according to practical situations, and function k is determined to be set in analysis
Differentiation degree of concern of the standby failure effect severity luck inspection personnel to economical index and non-economy type index；
Step 3-7. normalizes the analysis of equipment fault sequence severity, when adoption status choosing method obtains N number of operation of power networks field
After package failure effect severity C in scape, the sequence severity index C that is normalized finally#:
In system loss analysis of severity, according to network operation risk assessment method, in conjunction with electric power accident and risk relevant regulations,
By system loss severity LGFollowing 5 are decomposed into, need to be analyzed respectively:
1) subtract for load type system loss severity LG1, according to application scenarios, by subtracting the size for load total amount or subtract for load
Amount accounts for the ratio of load total amount to measure；
2) heavy duty or overload type system loss severity LG2, include the heavy duty and overload of equipment and transmission cross-section, pass through reality
The ratio of load value and rated value divides severity grade；
3) variation type system loss severity LG3, including low-voltage severity and two kinds of overvoltage severity；
4) grid disconnection type system loss severity LG4, part is electric after judging whether there is off-the-line and off-the-line according to power network topology
The voltage class of net determines severity grade；
5) plant stand or responsible consumer full cut-off type system loss severity LG5, plant stand is pressed for plant stand full cut-off type system loss severity
Voltage class determines severity grade, determines risk by responsible consumer grade for responsible consumer full cut-off type system loss severity
Grade, responsible consumer grade are determined by local people's governments according to related management method；
Formulate sequence severity deciding grade and level scheme.
3. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment based on maintenance risk income overhauls prioritization method according to claim 2,
It is characterized in that, in social loss's analysis of severity, reputation type social loss's severity and system loss severity grade and the common people
Attention rate is related, and wherein common people's attention rate is divided into general, concern and very pays close attention to three classes, when system their location is being held greatly
When type meeting, activity or race, common people's attention rate rises to very level of interest；When system their location is in meagrely-populated
Non- developed regions when, common people's attention rate falls to general grade；Attention rate of common people is concern in the case of other.
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