CN110298551A - A kind of rating model for market-oriented garden energy synthetic operation degree of urgency - Google Patents
A kind of rating model for market-oriented garden energy synthetic operation degree of urgency Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of rating models for market-oriented garden energy synthetic operation degree of urgency, the following steps are included: S1: establishing standard diagrams system, three aspects of degree of urgency and efficient electricity consumption degree of urgency, which are run, using degree of urgency, power transmission and distribution resource coordinating by generation assets collaboration establishes garden integrated energy system synthetic operation degree of urgency standard diagrams system, S2: metrics evaluation standard, link evaluation criterion, power transmission and distribution resource coordinating operation link evaluation criterion and efficient electricity consumption link evaluation criterion, S3: ranking method are utilized including generation assets collaboration.Present invention is generally directed to a kind of rating models for market-oriented garden energy synthetic operation degree of urgency, its ranking method is more scientific and reasonable, it uses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted mean method for integrated evaluating method, is scored with completing the collaboration of garden generation assets using degree of urgency, power transmission and distribution resource coordinating operation degree of urgency and efficient electricity consumption degree of urgency.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of rating of energy collaborative operation urgency, in particular to a rating model for the energy collaborative operation urgency of a marketized park.
Background
The situation that an industrial park builds and operates a self-contained power plant in the aspect of cooperative utilization of park power generation resources is existed, and standard guidance is urgently needed, the energy consumption of industries such as coal, electric power, petrifaction, metallurgy, machinery, light textile, building materials, medicine and the like gathered in a park is huge, so that each industry and the industrial park become the core area of power utilization, in order to reduce the power consumption cost, high-energy-carrying enterprises in a park build and operate the self-contained power plant, the self-contained power plant plays a certain positive role in reducing the energy consumption burden of the enterprises, reducing the network loss and the like, but the energy consumption is high, the pollution discharge is large, the cost problem of auxiliary services such as peak regulation, frequency modulation, standby and the like is not solved for a long time, how to better guide the health and the development of the self-contained power plant in a standard way, and perfect, ordered and reasonable power market order and environment are established, and become important.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a rating model aiming at the urgency degree of energy collaborative operation in a marketized park so as to solve the problems in the background technology.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a rating model aiming at the urgency of energy collaborative operation of a marketized park comprises the following steps:
s1: establishing a rating index system, and establishing a park comprehensive energy system cooperative operation urgency rating index system through three aspects of power generation resource cooperative utilization urgency, power transmission and distribution resource cooperative operation urgency and high-efficiency power utilization urgency;
s2: index evaluation criteria, which comprise power generation resource cooperative utilization link evaluation criteria, power transmission and distribution resource cooperative operation link evaluation criteria and high-efficiency power utilization link evaluation criteria;
s3: the grading method adopts an analytic hierarchy process and a weighted average method as a comprehensive evaluation method to finish grading of the emergency degree of the cooperative utilization of the power generation resources, the emergency degree of the cooperative operation of the power transmission and distribution resources and the emergency degree of the high-efficiency power utilization of the park.
Preferably, in S1, the power generation resource co-utilization urgency level includes a park power supply self-supply level, a self-contained power plant construction level, and a self-contained power plant-user association level.
Preferably, the park power supply self-supply level reflects the capacity of the power supply for meeting the self-power demand, the construction level of the self-supply power plant comprises the type of the self-supply power plant, the capacity of the self-supply power plant and the capacity of the comprehensive energy utilization self-supply power plant, and the relevance of the self-supply power plant and a user reflects the self-supply capacity of the self-supply power plant of the existing enterprise and the self-supply capacity of the self-supply power plant of the planning enterprise.
Preferably, in S1, the urgency level of cooperative operation of power transmission and distribution resources includes the efficiency of power transmission resources in the campus, the construction level of the incremental distribution grid, the load and power consumption of the incremental distribution test point, the share allocation ratio of the incremental distribution grid, and the association degree between the incremental distribution grid and the market subject.
Preferably, the park transmission resource efficiency comprises a transformer maximum load rate and a transmission line maximum load rate, the incremental distribution network construction level comprises an incremental distribution network voltage grade, an incremental distribution network scale and an incremental distribution network maximum load rate, the incremental distribution test point load power consumption comprises an incremental distribution test point annual maximum load, an incremental distribution test point load predicted increase speed, an incremental distribution test point annual power consumption and an incremental distribution test point annual power consumption predicted increase speed, the incremental distribution network share allocation example comprises a share holding unit and a market main body share percentage, and the incremental distribution network and market main body association degree comprises a market main body incremental distribution network ownership degree.
Preferably, in S1, the high efficiency urgency level includes a campus user basic level, an electric energy transaction mode and an electric energy price preference level, the campus user basic level includes a campus annual electric energy level, a user type and an electric energy consumption ratio of a key user, the electric energy transaction mode includes an electric energy ratio of a key user participating in direct transaction, an electric energy purchase ratio of a key user entrusted to an electric power selling company, and the electric energy price preference level includes an electric energy ratio of a key user enjoying a preference policy, an electric energy tax preference level and an electric energy price preference level.
Preferably, in S2, the evaluation criteria of the coordinated utilization of power generation resources include a power supply self-supply level of a park, a construction level of a self-provided power plant, and a degree of association between the self-provided power plant and a user, the evaluation criteria of the coordinated operation of power transmission and distribution resources include a park power transmission resource efficiency, an incremental power distribution network construction level, an incremental power distribution test point load power consumption and an incremental power distribution network share allocation proportion, and the evaluation criteria of the efficient power utilization link include a park user basic level, an electric energy transaction mode, and a power utilization preferential degree.
Preferably, in S3, the index weight and the comprehensive rating are determined, and the urgency of the cooperative operation of the integrated energy system in the park is obtained through analysis according to the urgency score of the three links of sending, transmitting and using electricity.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the method comprises the steps that a comprehensive energy system collaborative operation urgency rating system of an experimental park level is established from three aspects of power generation resource collaborative utilization urgency, power transmission and distribution resource collaborative operation urgency and high-efficiency power utilization urgency, the index system is divided into four levels, and the conditions of self-contained power plants, incremental power distribution network construction and planning and the like are comprehensively considered; and secondly, according to relevant standard contents in relevant regulations of the state or industry, combining practical experience and specific conditions of operation of the experimental park as a basis to establish an evaluation standard, and finally selecting an analytic hierarchy process and a weighted average method as a comprehensive evaluation method to finish the evaluation of the emergency degree of cooperative utilization of power generation resources, the emergency degree of cooperative operation of power transmission and distribution resources and the emergency degree of efficient power utilization of the park and establish a flow for determining the emergency degree of cooperative operation of the integral comprehensive energy system of the park based on the emergency degree score conditions of three links of power generation, power transmission and power utilization.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an overall flow diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a process for establishing a rating index system and an index evaluation criterion according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of a structural model of the analytic hierarchy process of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of the emergency degree determination of the cooperative operation of the park energy system according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is an index system diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a flow chart of the evaluation method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1-4, the present invention provides a technical solution: a rating model aiming at the urgency of energy collaborative operation of a marketized park comprises the following steps:
as shown in fig. 1 and 2, S1: establishing a rating index system, establishing a park comprehensive energy system collaborative operation urgency rating index system through three aspects of power generation resource collaborative utilization urgency, power transmission and distribution resource collaborative operation urgency and high-efficiency power utilization urgency, and mainly considering the conditions of self-contained power plants, incremental power distribution networks and user development in a park, as shown in table 1;
TABLE 1 index system table
(1) Urgency for cooperative utilization of power generation resources
The urgency of the cooperative utilization of the power generation resources is closely related to the situation of the power supply in the park, especially the situation of the self-contained power plant, and the total power supply level x of the park1For the ability that all powers satisfy self electric power demand in the reaction garden, garden total power supply level is relevant with the power type, the coal-electric set can satisfy steady power supply output, photovoltaic and wind-electricity condition of exerting oneself is unstable, can't guarantee to provide when the maximum load and exert oneself, and in the power construction in each garden of experiment, the scene is exerted oneself lessly, hardly influences garden total power supply level, so this index is expressed with the ratio of all power capacity that can stably exert oneself and maximum load demand in the garden:
in the formula: x is the number of1Representing the total power supply level of the park; sigma Psource-cThe sum of all power supply capacities which can stably output power in the park is MW; pload-ymThe unit is the annual maximum load of the garden and is MW;
self-contained power plant supply level x2The ability that the power supply of self-contained power plant satisfies self electric power demand in the reaction garden, if the installed capacity of self-contained power plant can satisfy user's load demand in the district by a great extent, the garden forms that the risk is great from the supply area, and the supply level of self-contained power plant shows with the ratio of installed capacity that all self-contained power plants can provide steady output and maximum load demand in the garden:
in the formula: x is the number of2Represents the supply level of the park's own power plant; sigma Pself-cThe sum of all capacities which can stably output power in the self-contained power plant in the park is MW; pload-ymThe unit is the annual maximum load of the garden and is MW;
the type of the self-contained power plant in the construction level of the self-contained power plant refers to the type of the self-contained power plant built in the park, the coal-fired self-contained power plant has the possibility of transforming to the self-contained power plant with residual heat, residual pressure and residual gas, the index is a qualitative index, and the invention scores according to the existing condition and the planning condition of the composition type of the self-contained power plant in the park;
existing capacity x of self-contained power plant in self-contained power plant construction level4: the unit is MW, and the sum of the capacities of various existing self-contained power plants (2017) in the park;
x4＝∑Pcoal+∑PMulti
in the formula: x is the number of4Representing the existing capacity of the self-prepared power plant in the park, and the unit is MW; sigma PcoalThe total capacity of the existing coal-fired self-contained power plant in the park is MW; sigma PMultiPlanning the capacity x for the existing comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant in the park with the unit of MW5: in MW, planning in the campus (2018-2020)) The capacity of each self-contained power plant is calculated according to the sum of the capacities of the self-contained power plants in each year, the calculation mode of the planned capacity in each year refers to the calculation mode of the capacity of the self-contained power plant in 2017, the capacities in each planned year are different in weight in the index, and the calculation formula is as follows:
x5＝λ1x4-18+λ2x4-19+λ3x4-20
in the formula: x is the number of5Planning capacity of a self-contained power plant in a representative park, wherein the unit is MW; x is the number of4-18、x4-19、x4-20Respectively representing the planned construction capacity of the self-contained power plant in each planning year, and the unit is MW; lambda [ alpha ]1、λ2、λ3The weight coefficients respectively represent the weight coefficients in the planning index calculation in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and the more recent years are the greater the urgency, so the values of the weight coefficients are respectively 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2;
existing capacity ratio x of comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant in capacity ratio of comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant6: the capacity of various existing self-contained power plants (2017) in the park accounts for the capacity of all the self-contained power plants, and the influence on the urgency of the cooperative operation of the comprehensive energy in the park is large, so the index shows the importance of the comprehensive energy utilization self-contained power plants,
in the formula: x is the number of6Representing the existing capacity ratio of the comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant;
planning capacity ratio x of comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant7: the capacity of various self-contained power plants planned in the garden (2018-2020) accounts for the proportion of the capacity of all the self-contained power plants, the planned capacity ratio calculation mode in each year refers to the capacity ratio calculation mode of the self-contained power plants in 2017, the capacity of each planned year accounts for different weights in the index, and the calculation formula is as follows:
x7＝λ1x6-18+λ2x6-19+λ3x6-20
in the formula: x is the number of7Self-provided for representing comprehensive energy utilizationPlanning capacity ratio of the power plant; x is the number of6-18、x6-19、x6-20Respectively representing the capacity ratio of the comprehensive energy utilization type self-provided power plants in each planning year;
the self-contained power plant in the park is divided into a park self-contained power plant and an enterprise self-contained power plant: when the self-supply power plant is self-supplied, the power grid enterprise generated by the park self-supply power plant can obtain partial power distribution income by participating in stocks on a park distribution network; the generated energy of the enterprise self-contained power plant is zero income electric quantity for the power grid enterprise,
self-supply capacity x of existing enterprise self-supply power plant8The self-supply capacity of the enterprise self-supply power plant refers to the conditions of power generation capacity and enterprise load demand of the enterprise self-supply power plant (namely the self-supply power plant built by a user), if the power generation supply of the enterprise self-supply power plant is greater than the load demand, the power can be supplied to other enterprises in a park besides meeting the power demand of the user in the enterprise, and the self-supply capacity calculation formula of the enterprise self-supply power plant in the prior (2017) is as follows:
in the formula: x is the number of8Representing the self-supply capacity of the existing enterprise's self-contained power plant, Pself-i-cThe unit capacity of the ith enterprise with the self-contained power plant capable of outputting power stably is MW, Pload-i-ymAnnual power consumption of the ith enterprise with its own power plant in billion kWh, etaiThe weight coefficient occupied by each enterprise with the self-contained power plant is related to the annual power consumption and self-supply capacity of the ith enterprise with the self-contained power plant, the weight coefficient of the enterprise with larger annual power consumption and self-supply capacity is also larger, and the self-supply capacity x of the self-contained power plant of the planning enterprise9Planning the power generation capacity of each self-contained power plant and the planning load demand condition of the enterprise in each enterprise planning (2018 and 2020), calculating the self-contained power plant self-contained power capacity in 2017 by referring to the self-contained power plant self-contained power capacity calculation mode in each planning year, wherein the unit capacity and the annual power consumption are predicted values, the self-contained power capacity in each planning year occupies different weights in the index, and the calculation formula is as follows:
x9＝λ1x8-18+λ2x8-19+λ3x8-20
in the formula: x is the number of9The self-supply capacity of a self-supply power plant of a planning enterprise is represented; x is the number of8-18、x8-19、x8-20Respectively representing the self-supply capacity of the enterprise self-supply power plant in each planning year;
(2) power transmission and distribution resource cooperative operation urgency
The urgency degree of cooperative operation of power transmission and distribution resources is determined by the influence of the power grid condition in a park, particularly the condition of an incremental power distribution network, and is mainly determined by the park power transmission resource efficiency, the incremental power distribution network construction level, the incremental power distribution test point load power consumption, the incremental power distribution network share allocation proportion and the association degree of the incremental power distribution network and a market main body, so that a park self-supply mode is easier to form under the condition of releasing the incremental power distribution service;
the park transmission resource efficiency includes:
maximum load factor x of transformer10In order to facilitate subsequent weight determination and calculation, the relation between the capacity level of the transformer in the park and the load demand is measured by selecting the reciprocal of the capacity-load ratio, namely the maximum load rate of the transformer as an index, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula: x is the number of10Representing the maximum load rate of the existing transformer in the park; skRepresenting the sum of main variable capacities of a substation of a certain voltage class in MVA, PkmaxRepresenting the maximum load of a network in a certain voltage class, and the unit is MW; gamma raykThe weight is occupied by the maximum load rate condition of the voltage class, the value is related to the voltage class and the maximum load rate condition of the voltage class transformer, and when the voltage class is higher and the maximum load rate is higher, the weight value is larger;
transformer estimated maximum load rate x considering newly built load11：
Considering the maximum load rate which the capacity of the existing transformer of the park will reach under the load condition of the newly-built user enterprises in the park (2018 and 2020), calculating the estimated maximum load rate of the transformer under the newly-built load condition of each planning year by referring to the calculation method of the maximum load rate of the existing transformer, wherein the index calculation formula is as follows:
x11＝λ1x10-18+λ2x10-19+λ3x10-20
in the formula: x is the number of11The estimated maximum load rate of the transformer considering the newly built load is represented; x is the number of10-18、x10-19、x10-20Respectively representing the predicted maximum load rate of the transformer in each planning year;
maximum load factor x of existing power transmission line12：
The maximum load rate of the existing transmission lines of each voltage class in the park reflects the relationship between the power grid transmission capacity level and the load demand of the park, and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula: x is the number of12Representing the maximum load rate of the existing power transmission line in the park; dkRepresents the sum of the capacities (line thermal stability limits) of a power distribution network of a certain voltage class, and the unit is MW; pkmaxRepresenting the maximum load of a network in a certain voltage class, and the unit is MW; gamma raykThe weight of the maximum load rate condition of the voltage level line is taken up, the value is related to the voltage level and the maximum load rate condition of the voltage level line, and when the voltage level is higher and the maximum load rate of the line is higher, the weight value is larger;
transmission line maximum load rate x considering newly-built load13：
Considering the load rate which the existing transmission lines with various voltage levels in the campus will reach under the load condition of newly-built user enterprises in the campus (2018 and 2020), calculating the maximum load rate of the transmission line considering the newly-built load in each planning year by referring to the calculation method of the maximum load rate of the transmission line, wherein the index calculation formula is as follows:
x13＝λ1x12-18+λ2x12-19+λ3x12-20
in the formula: x is the number of13Representing the maximum load rate of the power transmission line considering the newly built load; x is the number of12-18、x12-19、x12-20Respectively representing the maximum load rate of the power transmission line in each planning year;
the incremental power distribution network construction level comprises the following steps:
the voltage class of an incremental distribution network is basically 110 kilovolt and lower voltage class power grids and 220(330) kilovolt and lower voltage class local power grids of industrial parks (economic development areas); the higher voltage class of incremental distribution networks within the campus means greater risk of forming self-sustaining zones and even supplying power to users outside the campus;
existing incremental distribution network voltage class x14Voltage grade composition of the existing increment distribution network in the park;
planning incremental distribution network voltage class x15Planning the voltage grade composition of an incremental distribution network in a park;
the two indexes are qualitative indexes, and the method carries out grading according to the existing and planned voltage grade conditions of the incremental distribution network in the park;
existing incremental distribution network scale x16The unit is MVA, the capacity of the existing increment distribution network transformer of each voltage grade in the park,
in the formula: x is the number of16Representing the scale of the existing increment distribution network in the park; i iskRepresenting the sum of the transformer capacities of the incremental distribution network of a certain voltage class, and the unit is MW; mu.skThe weight occupied by the transformer capacity of the voltage grade increment distribution network is related to the voltage grade and the transformer capacity condition of the voltage grade increment distribution network, and the weight value is larger when the voltage grade is higher and the transformer capacity of the increment distribution network is larger;
planning incremental distribution network scale x17The unit is MVA, and the capacity of the incremental distribution network transformer of each voltage grade is planned in a park (2018-2020), and the calculation formula is as follows:
x17＝λ1x16-18+λ2x16-19+λ3x16-20
in the formula: x is the number of17Representing the scale of the incremental distribution network; x is the number of16-18、x16-19、x16-20Respectively representing the increment of the power distribution network scale of each planning year;
maximum load rate x of existing incremental power distribution network18The maximum load rate of the existing voltage grade increment distribution network transformer in the park is calculated by the following formula:
in the formula: x is the number of18Representing the maximum load rate of the existing incremental distribution network in the park; i iskRepresenting the sum of the capacities of the incremental distribution transformers of a certain voltage grade, and the unit is MVA; PI (proportional integral)kmaxRepresenting the annual maximum load of a certain voltage grade increment, and the unit is MW; gamma raykThe weight of the maximum load rate condition of the voltage level increment distribution line is taken, the value of the weight is related to the increment distribution voltage level and the maximum load rate condition of the voltage level increment distribution line, and the weight value is larger when the increment distribution voltage level is higher and the maximum load rate of the increment distribution line is higher;
planning maximum load rate x of incremental distribution network19And planning in the park (2018 and 2020), wherein the maximum load rate which is expected to be reached by each voltage grade increment distribution network is calculated according to the following formula:
x19＝λ1x18-18+λ2x18-19+λ3x18-20
in the formula: x is the number of19The maximum load rate is estimated on behalf of the planning increment distribution network; x is the number of18-18、x18-19、x18-20Respectively representing the maximum load rate of the incremental distribution network of each planning year;
incremental power distribution test point load power usage includes:
incremental distribution test year maximum load x20: in units of MW, annual maximum load for campus incremental distribution test points (2017);
incremental distribution test point load predicted growth rate x21: predicting the annual average growth rate during the annual maximum load (2016-;
incremental distribution test point annual power consumption x22: annual electricity usage in units of hundred million kWh, campus incremental distribution test points (2017);
predicted increase speed x of annual power consumption of incremental distribution test point23: the annual average growth rate during the annual power usage (2016-,
the share allocation proportion of the incremental power distribution network comprises the following steps:
equity holding unit x24The stock holding units of the incremental distribution network in different parks are different, the index is a qualitative index, and the method scores according to the condition of the stock right holding unit;
market subject share ratio x25Incremental power distribution network shares held by market entities (including power generation enterprises, power distribution and sale companies, users and the like) in a park,
in the formula: x is the number of25Representing the stock right ratio of the market main body; kiHolding shares for market main body of ith increment distribution test point; deltaiThe market main body of the ith incremental distribution test point holds the weight of shares, the value of the weight is related to the voltage grade and the capacity of the incremental distribution test point and the shares held by the market main body, the higher the voltage grade of the incremental distribution network is, the larger the capacity is, the higher the shares held by the market main body is, and the larger the weight value is;
the association degree of the incremental distribution network and the market subject comprises the following steps:
market subject incremental distribution network ownership x26The capacity of the incremental distribution network of the market main body accounts for the capacity of the total incremental distribution network of the park,
in the formula: x is the number of26Representing the ownership of the incremental distribution network of the market subject; i iskThe capacity of a transformer of the distribution network is increased for a certain voltage grade of the park, and the unit is MVA; i isukThe capacity of the voltage grade increment distribution network transformer, which is occupied by market main bodies in the park, is MVA; gamma raykThe weight of the voltage grade market main body increment distribution network proportion condition is related to the increment distribution voltage grade and the market main body increment distribution network proportion condition in value, the higher the increment distribution network voltage grade is, the larger the market main body increment distribution network proportion is, and the larger the weight value is;
(3) high efficiency electric tightness
The high-efficiency electricity utilization urgency is influenced by electricity utilization conditions of users in the garden, electric energy transaction modes of the users and preferential degrees of electricity utilization;
campus user base levels include:
annual power utilization level in a park, annual power utilization level x in a park27Hundred million kWh (hundred million kilowatts) units, total annual electricity consumption in the campus (2017);
annual power consumption increase speed x in park28Estimating the annual average growth rate during the park electricity usage (2016-;
annual maximum load level x in a park29Unit MW, intra-zone annual maximum load (2017);
annual maximum load growth rate x in a garden30: predicting the annual average growth rate during the annual maximum load (2016-;
estimated annual power consumption x in a park31: the unit is hundred million kWh, and the total electricity consumption in each year (2018 and 2020) in the park is predicted;
x31＝λ1x27-18+λ2x27-19+λ3x27-20
in the formula: x is the number of31Representing the electricity consumption index of each year in the estimated park; x is the number of27-18、x27-19、x27-20Respectively representing the power consumption level of each planned year in hundred million kWh;
forecast annual maximum load level x in a park32: the unit is MW, and the maximum load level in each year (2018-2020) in the park is predicted;
x32＝λ1x29-18+λ2x29-19+λ3x29-20
in the formula: x is the number of32Representing the maximum load index of each year in the estimated park; x is the number of29-18、x29-19、x29-20Respectively representing the maximum load of each planning year, and the unit is MW;
user type x33According to different load properties, classifying users in the park into large industrial users, industrial and commercial users, residential users, agricultural production users and the like, wherein the evaluation system focuses on the large industrial users and the industrial and commercial users, defines the large industrial users and the industrial and commercial users as key users, and scores according to the composition condition of park user types;
power consumption ratio x for key user34The annual power consumption of large industrial users and industrial and commercial users in the park accounts for the total annual power consumption of the park;
in the formula: x is the number of34Representing the power consumption ratio of key users;representing the sum of annual power consumption of key users, and the unit is hundred million kWh;
the electric energy transaction mode comprises the following steps:
the ratio of electric quantity to electric quantity x for key users to participate in direct transaction35The proportion of the electric quantity which participates in direct transaction by key users in the year to the total electric quantity consumed by the key users in the year;
in the formula: x is the number of35Representing key users to participate in direct transaction electric quantity accountingA ratio;representing the sum of the electric quantity of each key user participating in direct trading in hundred million kWh,
the ratio of the electricity purchasing quantity to the electricity purchasing quantity x of the key user entrusted with the electricity selling company36The key user entrusts an electricity selling company to purchase the electricity in the year to account for the proportion of the total electricity consumption of the key user in the year;
in the formula: x is the number of36Entrusts the power selling company to purchase the electric quantity on behalf of the key user;representing the sum of the electric quantity purchased by the power selling company in hundred million kWh within each key user year;
the preferential degree of the electricity consumption comprises the following steps:
key users enjoy preferential policy electric quantity ratio x37The key users are in the proportion of the annual power consumption of the key users in the electricity quantity enjoying the preferential policy, and under the background of a certain preferential policy, the more the proportion of the annual power consumption of the key users is, the more the electricity consumption cost is reduced, and the higher the possibility of increasing the electricity consumption is;
in the formula: x is the number of37The representative key user enjoys preferential policy electric quantity ratio;representing the sum of the electric quantity purchased by each key user by enjoying preferential policies in hundred million kWh;
preferential degree x of electric tax38Under the background of the national proposal of adjusting the value-added tax rate of the released power industry and the electricity price space vacated by the one-time refund of the refund tax of the power grid enterprise, the users in the garden enjoyAccording to the electricity consumption tax preferential condition, the index is a qualitative index, and the method scores according to the electricity consumption tax preferential degree enjoyed by users in the garden;
preferential degree x of electricity price39In the background of general industrial and commercial electricity price reduction, the preferential degree of the electricity price enjoyed by the users in the park is a qualitative index, and the invention scores according to the preferential degree of the electricity price enjoyed by the users in the park;
as shown in fig. 1 and 2, S2: the index evaluation standard comprises an evaluation standard of a power generation resource cooperative utilization link, an evaluation standard of a power transmission and distribution resource cooperative operation link and an evaluation standard of a high-efficiency power utilization link, in a park comprehensive energy system cooperative operation urgency rating index system, qualitative indexes comprise a self-contained power plant type, an incremental distribution network voltage level, a share right occupation unit, a user type, a power consumption tax preferential degree, a power consumption price preferential degree and the like, when scoring, the invention obtains corresponding percentage scores aiming at the self-contained power plant type composition, the incremental distribution network voltage level and the share right occupation unit condition, the user type composition condition and the user power consumption preferential degree condition of each park, and the other indexes are quantitative indexes, according to related standard contents in related national or industry regulations, the invention combines practical experience and specific conditions of the operation of an experimental park as basis to establish the evaluation standard, selecting a broken line type non-dimensionalization processing method generally adopted in multi-index comprehensive evaluation, wherein more indexes are benefit indexes, namely the larger the number of the indexes is, the higher the corresponding score is, the higher the urgency degree of cooperative operation of the park comprehensive energy system is, carrying out non-dimensionalization processing according to the following formula, and calculating to obtain the corresponding percentile score;
in the formula:is a corresponding score of a quantitative index x, xmaxAnd xminRespectively representing the corresponding index when the score of the index reaches the upper limit and the lower limitA numerical value;
(1) evaluation standard of power generation resource cooperative utilization link
Evaluation criteria of the power generation resource cooperative utilization link comprise the power supply self-supply level of the park, the construction level of the self-supply power plant and the association degree of the self-supply power plant and users;
the garden power supply is self-supplied level:
park total power supply level score
Self-contained power plant supply level score
Self-contained power plant construction level:
self-contained plant type scoringThe index is a qualitative index, the invention scores according to the existing condition and the planning condition of the composition type of the park self-contained power plant, the development prospect is better because the waste heat, the residual pressure and the residual gas self-contained power plant implement the policy of reducing and avoiding cross subsidies, so if the type of the self-contained power plant in the park is mainly the comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant, the score is higher,
self-contained power plant capacity score, self-contained power plant existing capacity score
Self-contained power plant planning capacity score
Existing capacity ratio score of comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant
Planning capacity ratio score of comprehensive energy utilization type self-contained power plant
The association degree of the self-contained power plant and the user is as follows:
existing enterprise self-contained power plant self-supply capability scoring
Self-supply capability score of self-contained power plant of planning enterprise
(2) Evaluation standard for power transmission and distribution resource collaborative operation link
The evaluation criteria of the power transmission and distribution resource collaborative operation link comprise the efficiency of power transmission resources in a park, the construction level of an incremental distribution network, the load power consumption of an incremental distribution test point and the share right distribution proportion of the incremental distribution network;
efficiency of power transmission resources in the park:
maximum load factor of transformer, maximum load factor score of existing transformer
Transformer estimated maximum load rate score considering new load
Maximum load rate of transmission line, maximum load rate score of existing transmission line
Power transmission line maximum load rate score considering newly-built load
Incremental power distribution network construction level:
incremental distribution network voltage rating, existing incrementDistribution network voltage class scoringThe index is a qualitative index, the method scores according to the existing voltage grade of the incremental distribution network in the park, and the higher the voltage grade is, the higher the score is; planning incremental distribution network voltage class scoresThe index is a qualitative index, the method scores according to the situation of the planned voltage grade of the incremental distribution network in the park, and the higher the voltage grade is, the higher the score is;
incremental power distribution network scale
Existing incremental power distribution network scale scoring
Planning incremental distribution network scale score
The maximum load rate of the incremental distribution network and the maximum load rate score of the existing incremental distribution network
Planning the maximum load rate of the incremental distribution network
Incremental power distribution test point load power consumption:
incremental distribution test year maximum load score
Incremental distribution test point load projected growth rate score
Incremental distribution test point annual power consumption score
Projected increase rate score for annual power consumption of incremental distribution test points
Stock right distribution proportion of the incremental power distribution network:
equity holder unit scoreThe index is a qualitative index, the invention carries out scoring according to the condition of a share right holding unit, and if market main bodies such as users in a district, power generation enterprises, distribution and sale power companies and the like hold share rights, the index has higher scoring;
market subject share ratio score
The association degree of the incremental power distribution network and the market subject is as follows:
market subject incremental distribution network ownership score
(3) Evaluation standard of efficient power utilization link
The evaluation criteria of the high-efficiency electricity utilization link comprise the basic level of the users in the park, the electric energy transaction mode, the electricity utilization preferential degree and the electricity utilization preferential degree;
campus user basic level:
annual power consumption level of the park and annual power consumption level score of the park
Annual power consumption increase rate score in park
Annual maximum load rating in park
Annual maximum load growth rate score in a campus
Forecasting annual power consumption score of park
Forecast year-to-year maximum load rating for a park
User type scoreThe index is a qualitative index, the scoring is carried out according to the composition condition of the garden user types, and if the major industrial users and the industrial and commercial users are taken as the main users, the scoring of the index is higher;
power consumption ratio score for key user
Electric energy transaction mode:
score of electric quantity ratio of key users participating in direct transaction
The power purchasing amount of the key user entrusted with the power selling company to score
Preferential degree of electricity consumption:
key users enjoy preferential policy electric quantity ratio scores
Preferential degree score of electric taxThe index is a qualitative index, and the method scores according to the preferential degree of the power consumption tax enjoyed by the users in the garden;
TABLE 2 standard table for preferential degree of tax
Preferential degree score of electricity priceThe index is a qualitative index, and the method scores according to the preferential degree of the electricity price enjoyed by the users in the garden;
taking the situation that users in a garden in certain province in northwest of China enjoy the preferential policy of electricity price as an example, for a new dominant industrial enterprise which meets the national industrial policy and experimental district industrial layout, achieves the advanced technical standard of the industry, has the energy consumption reaching the standard in environmental protection, and has the annual output value of more than 2000 RMB and the electricity consumption of more than 300 ten thousand kilowatt hours, the electricity consumption for production is subsidized by 5 minutes/kilowatt hours; for enterprises, cloud computing and big data enterprises, which are identified by the national high and new technology, the electricity consumption is 300 ten thousand kilowatt hours or more in the last year, and the electricity consumption for production is subsidized by 6 minutes/kilowatt hours; the method scores 90 points for determining the garden where the user enjoys 5 points/kilowatt-hour subsidy and scores 95 points for determining the garden where the user enjoys 6 points/kilowatt-hour subsidy;
TABLE 3 COUPLING GRADE STANDARD TABLE FOR ELECTRICITY-USING VALUE
As shown in fig. 1 and 2, S3: the grading method adopts an analytic hierarchy process and a weighted average method as a comprehensive evaluation method to finish grading of the cooperative utilization urgency of park power generation resources, the cooperative operation urgency of power transmission and distribution resources and the high-efficiency power utilization urgency, adopts the weighted average method to calculate and obtain the grades of the cooperative utilization urgency of park power generation resources, the cooperative operation urgency of power transmission and distribution resources and the high-efficiency power utilization urgency on the premise of determining an index evaluation system and an evaluation standard, and then establishes a flow for determining the cooperative operation urgency of the whole park comprehensive energy system based on the urgency grading conditions of the urgency of three links of power generation, power transmission and power utilization;
(1) determination of index weight by analytic hierarchy process
The invention selects and adopts an analytic hierarchy process to weight the same-layer indexes, determines the weight of each evaluation index, and adopts the analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, and the steps of:
constructing a hierarchical analysis structure, analyzing a problem by applying a hierarchical analysis method, organizing and layering the problem, constructing a model of the hierarchical analysis structure, and requiring a decision maker to clearly decide what a target is to be achieved, what influence factors (namely, standard layer elements) contained in the target are, and whether the influence factors are in parallel or in a dependent relationship: the factors of the parallel relation are in the same level; the factors of the dependency relationship are listed in adjacent layers, and the typical analytic hierarchy process model structure;
as shown in fig. 3, a connection line indicates the relationship between the upper and lower layer elements, the highest layer is a target layer, generally there is only one element, the lower layer of the target layer is a criterion layer, that is, a set of factors affecting the target, the criterion layer may have multiple layers, that is, a sub-layer may be established between the criterion layer layers, the sub-layer belongs to one element in the main layer, the scheme layer is generally placed at the lowest part of the hierarchy, and the element in the scheme layer is the object that we judge, sort, and select;
constructing a judgment matrix, wherein people judge the relative importance of each factor in each layer, and the judgment is expressed by numerical values by introducing proper scales and written into the judgment matrix; the judgment matrix represents the comparison of relative importance of the factor of the previous level and the related factor of the current level; for n elements, a pairwise comparison decision matrix C ═ C is obtained (C)ij)n×n；
The structural judgment matrix takes the following form:
in the formula: cijRepresenting the importance scale values of factor i and factor j relative to the target,
judging matrix composition element CijValue sizeThe method is usually given by a 1-9-scale method,
TABLE 4 judge matrix Scale and its implications Table
The judgment matrix C has the following properties:
as known from matrix theory, the matrix (C)ij)n×nIs a positive and negative matrix, and only needs to write out (C) in actual workij)n×nUpper or lower triangular form of, if positive and negative matrices (C)ij)n×nFor any i, j, k, there is Cij·Cjk＝CikAt this time, the matrix is called as a consistent matrix; in actual work, consistency check is needed to ensure that the judgment matrixes have consistency;
and (3) consistency check of the judgment matrix, wherein in order to ensure that the conclusion obtained by analysis by the analytic hierarchy process is reasonable and keep the consistency of judgment thinking, the consistency check of the constructed judgment matrix is required, the negative average value of other characteristic roots except the maximum characteristic root of the judgment matrix is introduced into the analytic hierarchy process and is used as an index for measuring the deviation consistency of the judgment matrix, namely the negative average value is used
The larger the value of CI is, the larger the degree of deviation of the judgment matrix from complete consistency is; the smaller the CI value (close to 0), the better the consistency of the judgment matrix is;
different orders of judgment matrixes have different requirements on CI values, the average random consistency index RI value of the judgment matrixes is introduced, and 1-9 orders of judgment matrixes are subjected to judgment;
TABLE 5 table of average immediate consistency index values for decision matrices
When random consistency ratio
If not, the judgment matrix needs to be adjusted to ensure that the judgment matrix has satisfactory consistency;
and (3) calculating index weight by adopting a root method:
calculating each row element C of the judgment matrixijRoot of Chinese arborvitaeObtain the vectorWherein,
will vectorNormalizing to obtain the weight Wi sThe weight is the single-level weight of the ith index;
calculating final weight W of each sub-indexi，
Wi＝Wi fWi s
Wherein, Wi fWeight of upper level index being the ith index, Wi sA single-level weight of the ith index;
(1) comprehensive rating method
Selecting a weighted average method to finish the rating of the cooperative utilization urgency of the park power generation resources, the cooperative operation urgency of the power transmission and distribution resources and the high-efficiency power utilization urgency, wherein the weighted average method is a basic method for index synthesis, is simple and clear in calculation principle and suitable for engineering practice, determining the single-level weight of each index through a hierarchical analysis method, calculating by using the weighted average method to obtain the upper-level index score, calculating by analogy to obtain the power generation resource cooperative utilization urgency, the cooperative operation urgency of the power transmission and distribution resources and the high-efficiency power utilization urgency of the park, and analyzing to obtain the urgency of the cooperative operation of the integral comprehensive energy system of the park according to the urgency score conditions of three links of power generation, power transmission and power utilization;
the score is a safety grade of 40 points and below, the score is an early warning grade between 40 and 60 points (including 60 points), the score is an urgent grade between 60 and 80 points (including 80 points), the score is a high risk grade between 80 and 100 points (including 100 points),
according to data research and analysis of each typical park, the invention considers that if some link in each link of sending, transporting and using of the test park reaches high-risk level (more than 80 minutes), the integral comprehensive energy system of the park operates in cooperation with urgency degree to reach the high-risk level, and under the condition that each link does not have high-risk level score: if two or more links reach the urgent level and the scores are all over 70 points, the urgent degree of the cooperative operation of the integral comprehensive energy system of the park is also evaluated to be the high-risk level, if a certain link reaches the urgent level, the urgent degree of the cooperative operation of the integral comprehensive energy system of the park reaches the urgent level, and under the condition that each link does not have the high-risk level and the urgent level scores: if two or more links reach the early warning level and the scores are both more than 50 points, evaluating that the cooperative operation urgency of the integral park energy system is also the urgency level, if a certain link reaches the early warning level, the cooperative operation urgency of the integral park energy system belongs to the early warning level, if all the links are the safety level (less than 40 points), the cooperative operation urgency of the integral park energy system is in the safety level range, and the relationship between the urgency rating of each link and the cooperative operation urgency rating of the integral park energy system is in a park;
as shown in fig. 4, three links of the urgency of cooperative utilization of input power generation resources, the urgency of cooperative operation of power transmission and distribution resources, and the urgency of efficient power utilizationRespective score y1，y2，y3The urgent degree judgment flow chart of the cooperative operation of the park comprehensive energy system is obtained1，y2，y3Maximum value L ═ max { y ═ y1,y2,y3Min { y } minimum value S ═ min1,y2,y3And (6) judging the cooperative operation urgency of the integral comprehensive energy system of the park according to the sequence in the flow chart, wherein the intermediate value is M.
The invention mainly aims at a rating model aiming at the energy collaborative operation urgency of a marketized park, an experimental park level comprehensive energy system collaborative operation urgency rating system is established from three aspects of power generation resource collaborative utilization urgency, power transmission and distribution resource collaborative operation urgency and high-efficiency power utilization urgency, an index system is divided into four levels, the conditions of self-contained power plants, incremental power distribution network construction and planning and the like are considered comprehensively, then an evaluation standard is established according to relevant standard contents in relevant regulations of the country or industry and by combining practical experience and specific conditions of operation of the experimental park, finally an analytic hierarchy process and a weighted average method are adopted as a comprehensive evaluation method, the park power generation resource collaborative utilization urgency, the power transmission and distribution resource collaborative operation urgency and the high-efficiency power utilization urgency are graded, and the determination of the collaborative operation urgency of the whole park comprehensive energy system based on the urgency of the urgency scoring conditions of the urgency of the three urgency of the power transmission, power transmission and power utilization links is established And (5) carrying out the process.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (8)
1. A rating model aiming at the urgency of energy collaborative operation of a marketized park is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1: establishing a rating index system, and establishing a park comprehensive energy system cooperative operation urgency rating index system through three aspects of power generation resource cooperative utilization urgency, power transmission and distribution resource cooperative operation urgency and high-efficiency power utilization urgency;
s2: index evaluation criteria, which comprise power generation resource cooperative utilization link evaluation criteria, power transmission and distribution resource cooperative operation link evaluation criteria and high-efficiency power utilization link evaluation criteria;
s3: the grading method adopts an analytic hierarchy process and a weighted average method as a comprehensive evaluation method to finish grading of the emergency degree of the cooperative utilization of the power generation resources, the emergency degree of the cooperative operation of the power transmission and distribution resources and the emergency degree of the high-efficiency power utilization of the park.
2. A rating model for the urgency of energy collaborative operations of a marketized park according to claim 1, wherein: at S1, the urgency level of cooperative utilization of power generation resources includes a park power supply self-supply level, a self-contained power plant construction level, and a degree of association between a self-contained power plant and a user.
3. A rating model for the urgency of energy collaborative operations of a marketized park according to claim 2, wherein: the self-supply level of the power supply in the park reflects the capability of the power supply to meet the self-power demand, the construction level of the self-supply power plant comprises the type of the self-supply power plant, the capacity of the self-supply power plant and the capacity ratio of the comprehensive energy utilization self-supply power plant, and the relevance between the self-supply power plant and a user reflects the self-supply capability of the self-supply power plant of the existing enterprise and the self-supply capability of the self-supply power plant of the planning enterprise.
4. A rating model for the urgency of energy collaborative operations of a marketized park according to claim 1, wherein: in S1, the urgency level of cooperative operation of power transmission and distribution resources includes the efficiency of power transmission resources in the campus, the construction level of the incremental distribution network, the load and power consumption of the incremental distribution test points, the share allocation proportion of the incremental distribution network, and the association degree between the incremental distribution network and the market subject.
5. A rating model for the urgency of energy collaborative operations of a marketized park according to claim 4, wherein: the park transmission resource efficiency comprises the maximum load rate of a transformer and the maximum load rate of a transmission line, the incremental distribution network construction level comprises the incremental distribution network voltage grade, the incremental distribution network scale and the incremental distribution network maximum load rate, the incremental distribution test point load power consumption comprises the incremental distribution test point annual maximum load, the incremental distribution test point load predicted increase speed, the incremental distribution test point annual power consumption and the incremental distribution test point annual power consumption predicted increase speed, the incremental distribution network share allocation example comprises share right holding units and market main body share right proportion, and the incremental distribution network and market main body association degree comprises the market main body incremental distribution network share degree.
6. A rating model for the urgency of energy collaborative operations of a marketized park according to claim 1, wherein: in S1, the high efficiency electricity usage urgency includes a campus user base level, an electricity transaction mode and an electricity price preference level, the campus user base level includes a campus annual electricity usage level, a user type and an electricity consumption ratio of a key user, the electricity transaction mode includes an electricity consumption ratio of a key user participating in a direct transaction, an electricity purchase ratio of a key user entrusted with an electricity selling company, and the electricity price preference level includes an electricity consumption ratio of a key user enjoying a preference policy, an electricity price preference level and an electricity price preference level.
7. A rating model for the urgency of energy collaborative operations of a marketized park according to claim 1, wherein: in S2, the evaluation criteria of the power generation resource cooperative utilization link include a park power supply self-supply level, a self-supply power plant construction level, and a self-supply power plant and user association degree, the evaluation criteria of the power transmission and distribution resource cooperative operation link include park power transmission resource efficiency, an incremental power distribution network construction level, an incremental power distribution test point load power consumption and an incremental power distribution network share allocation proportion, and the evaluation criteria of the high-efficiency power consumption link include a park user basic level, an electric energy transaction mode, and a power consumption privilege degree.
8. A rating model for the urgency of energy collaborative operations of a marketized park according to claim 1, wherein: in S3, index weight and comprehensive rating are determined, and the urgency of the cooperative operation of the integral comprehensive energy system of the park can be obtained through analysis according to the urgency score conditions of three links of sending, transmitting and using electricity.
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| CN111191954A (en) * | 2020-01-07 | 2020-05-22 | 国家电网有限公司 | Comprehensive energy technology adaptability evaluation method |
| CN113762961A (en) * | 2021-08-17 | 2021-12-07 | 国网山东省电力公司信息通信公司 | Trusted intelligent transaction method, system, computer equipment and terminal |
| CN113762961B (en) * | 2021-08-17 | 2023-08-11 | 国网山东省电力公司信息通信公司 | Trusted intelligent transaction method, system, computer equipment and terminal |
| CN113807699A (en) * | 2021-09-17 | 2021-12-17 | 陕西燃气集团新能源发展股份有限公司 | Flexible operation evaluation method for power distribution network |
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