CN106295953A - A kind of production estimation suitability evaluation methods and system - Google Patents
A kind of production estimation suitability evaluation methods and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses the evaluation of adaptability method and system of a kind of production estimation, the method includes: obtain input cost and the yield producing crops in presetting the production cycle；According to input cost and yield, stochastic frontier analysis method is used to obtain the technical efficiency of described production estimation；According to the production weather conditions in producing region, crops place, Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment is used to obtain the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place；According to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule, producing region, described crops place is evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation.The method obtains the Climate Comfort in this producing region, crops place according to crops technical efficiency and producing region, crops place, Climate Comfort and productive technical efficiency are combined, the production suitability of overall merit crops, thus avoid the one-sidedness of evaluation, improve the accuracy of evaluation.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Suitability evaluation for crops field, be specifically related to a kind of production estimation suitability evaluation methods and
System.
Background technology
It is ecological regionalization of wine grape evaluation and the key link of production efficiency test and appraisal that vinifera produces suitability evaluation.
Along with vinifera some areas technical efficiency is low, economic benefit wait to improve, the appearance of the phenomenons such as " selling difficulty ", vinifera produces
Industry development faces severe situation, and the cultivation management technology efficiency of different regions vinifera affects the production efficiency on this ground, from
The production suitability of vinifera is so together decided on artificial condition.
But, its productive technical efficiency or ecotope are the most individually studied in the research about the vinifera condition of production at present
Draw.This climatic factor pertaining only to objective not malleable, and do not take into account local vinifera under the conditions of benign climate
Productive technology management is actual, does not meets the science integrity producing suitability evaluation, has one-sidedness, unicity and quantitative difference
Etc. shortcoming.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved is how to provide a kind of comprehensive and accurate production estimation suitability evaluation
Method, the production for crops proposes objective rational suggestion.
For this technical problem, the invention provides a kind of evaluation of adaptability method of production estimation, including:
Obtain input cost and the yield producing crops in presetting the production cycle；
According to described input cost and yield, stochastic frontier analysis method is used to obtain the technology effect of described production estimation
Rate；
According to the production weather conditions in producing region, described crops place, Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment is used to obtain described crops
The Climate Comfort in producing region, place；
According to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule, is produced from described crops place
District is evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation.
Preferably, the described weather conditions according to producing region, described crops place, use Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to obtain institute
State producing region, crops place Climate Comfort, including:
Effective accumulated temperature and producing region, the described crops place hydro-thermal within the period of maturation in the phenological period according to described crops
Coefficient, uses Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment that the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is divided into weather high-quality district, weather
Suitable Area and weather time Suitable Area.
Preferably, described according to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule to described
Producing region, crops place is evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation, including:
When described technical efficiency is more than or equal to first threshold, and the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is gas
Wait high-quality district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive high-quality district；
When described technical efficiency is less than first threshold and more than or equal to Second Threshold, producing region, the most described crops place
Climate Comfort is benign climate district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area；
When described technical efficiency is less than first threshold, and the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is that weather time is suitable
Yi Qu, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area.
Preferably, also include:
Input cost according to each class Input Factors in described input cost and described yield, use surmount logarithm with
Machine Frontier Model parameter estimation result calculates the coefficient of elasticity between each Input Factors and yield；
Evaluation of adaptability result according to described production estimation, the Climate Comfort in producing region, described place and described
Coefficient of elasticity, it is provided that the production suggestion of described crops；
Wherein, the input cost of described each class Input Factors is the input cost of fertilizers input, the input of pesticide input
Cost or the artificial input cost put into.
Preferably, the described evaluation of adaptability result according to described production estimation, the benign climate in producing region, place
Property and described coefficient of elasticity, it is provided that described crops production suggestion, including:
When the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is weather time Suitable Area, and described production estimation is comprehensive
Suitability evaluation result is comprehensive Suitable Area, or, the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is benign climate district,
And the evaluation of adaptability result of described production estimation is when being comprehensive Suitable Area or comprehensive Suitable Area, then advise increasing
Coefficient of elasticity is the input cost of positive production factors, reduces the input cost that coefficient of elasticity is negative production factors, to improve
The yield in producing region, described crops place and technical efficiency.
On the other hand, present invention also offers the evaluation of adaptability system of a kind of production estimation, including:
Acquisition module, produces input cost and the yield of crops in obtaining the default production cycle；
First analyzes module, for according to described input cost and yield, uses stochastic frontier analysis method to obtain described agriculture
The technical efficiency of crop production；
Second analyzes module, for the production weather conditions according to producing region, described crops place, uses fuzzy synthesis to comment
Valency method obtains the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place；
Evaluation module, for according to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule to institute
State producing region, crops place to be evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation.
Preferably, described second analysis module is additionally operable to the effective accumulated temperature in the phenological period according to described crops and described agriculture
The producing region, crop place hydrothermic coefficient within the period of maturation, uses Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment by the weather in producing region, described crops place
Suitability is divided into weather high-quality district, benign climate district and weather time Suitable Area.
Preferably, described evaluation module includes:
First evaluation unit, for being more than or equal to first threshold when described technical efficiency, and is produced from described crops place
The Climate Comfort in district is weather high-quality district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive high-quality district；
Second evaluation unit, for when described technical efficiency is less than first threshold and more than or equal to Second Threshold, simultaneously institute
The Climate Comfort stating producing region, crops place is benign climate district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive
Close Suitable Area；
3rd evaluation unit, for being less than first threshold, and the gas in producing region, described crops place when described technical efficiency
Waiting suitability is weather time Suitable Area, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area.
Preferably, also include:
3rd analyzes module, for the input cost according to each class Input Factors in described input cost and described product
Amount, uses the coefficient of elasticity surmounted between the logarithm stochastic Frontier Model each Input Factors of acquisition and yield；
Suggestion module, for according to the evaluation of adaptability result of described production estimation, the gas in producing region, described place
Wait suitability and described coefficient of elasticity, it is provided that the production suggestion of described crops；
Wherein, the input cost of described each class Input Factors is the input cost of fertilizers input, the input of pesticide input
Cost or the artificial input cost put into.
Preferably, described suggestion module is additionally operable to when the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is that weather time is suitable
District, and the evaluation of adaptability result of described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area, or, producing region, described crops place
Climate Comfort be benign climate district, and the evaluation of adaptability result of described production estimation be comprehensive Suitable Area or
During the comprehensive Suitable Area of person, then suggestion increases the input cost that coefficient of elasticity is positive production factors, and it is negative for reducing coefficient of elasticity
The input cost of production factors, to improve yield and the technical efficiency in producing region, described crops place.
The evaluation of adaptability method and system of the production estimation that the present invention provides, by obtaining the input of crops
Cost and yield, according to input cost and the technical efficiency of yield acquisition crops of crops, and according to crops place
Producing region obtains the Climate Comfort in this producing region, crops place, Climate Comfort and productive technical efficiency is combined, comprehensively comments
The production suitability of valency crops, thus avoid the one-sidedness of evaluation, improve the accuracy of evaluation.
Accompanying drawing explanation
In order to be illustrated more clearly that the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
In having technology to describe, the required accompanying drawing used is briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawing in describing below is this
Some bright embodiments, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, it is also possible to root
Other accompanying drawing is obtained according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the evaluation of adaptability method of the production estimation that the embodiment of the present invention provides；
Fig. 2 is the evaluation procedure signal that the evaluation of adaptability of production estimation that the embodiment of the present invention provides is concrete
Figure；
Fig. 3 is the structured flowchart of the evaluation of adaptability system of the production estimation that the embodiment of the present invention provides.
Detailed description of the invention
For making the purpose of the embodiment of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
In accompanying drawing, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiment is
The a part of embodiment of the present invention rather than whole embodiments.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art
The every other embodiment obtained under not making creative work premise, broadly falls into the scope of protection of the invention.
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the evaluation of adaptability method of the production estimation that the present embodiment provides.See figure
1, the method includes:
S1: obtain input cost and the yield producing crops in presetting the production cycle；
S2: according to described input cost and yield, uses stochastic frontier analysis method to obtain the technology of described production estimation
Efficiency；
S3: according to the production weather conditions in producing region, described crops place, uses Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to obtain described agriculture
The Climate Comfort in producing region, crop place；
S4: according to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule to described crops institute
It is evaluated in producing region, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation.
Wherein, the default production cycle at least include that a short production cycle, short production cycle refer to farming
Thing is from being seeded into the ripe time period gathered in the crops, and input cost includes the chemical fertilizer during production estimation, seed, artificial, agriculture
Medicine and the fund input of other side, yield refers to the yield of crops.
Technical efficiency refers under set input the increasable ability of output or puts under set output and can reduce
Ability.The method of conventional measurement technology efficiency is that production proportions analyzes method (SFA).Production proportions refers in certain technology
Maximum output set under level, corresponding to various ratios input.
Using stochastic frontier analysis method (Stochastic Frontier the measuring and calculating of productive technical efficiency more
Analysis, SFA), determining production proportions face at random, it is considered to random error and other equiprobable interference of non-technical variable because of
In the case of element, calculate its productive technical efficiency.
When evaluating the Climate Comfort in producing region, crops place, mainly by setting up Climatic Zoning Indexes architectural study farming
The cultivation suitability of thing.Such as, China's different regions natural climate condition is different, and based on temperature, rainfall and the gas of illumination
Waiting the factor is to affect vinifera to produce the factor of determination of suitability, so while the cultivated area of China vinifera constantly expands
Greatly, but the producing region of main vinifera is basically unchanged.According to temperature, rainfall and illumination, producing region, vinifera place is divided into
Weather high-quality district, benign climate district and weather time Suitable Area.
The evaluation of adaptability method of production estimation that the present invention provides, by obtain crops input cost and
Yield, according to input and the technical efficiency of yield acquisition crops of crops, and should according to the acquisition of producing region, crops place
The Climate Comfort in producing region, crops place, combines Climate Comfort and productive technical efficiency, overall merit crops
Produce suitability, thus avoid the one-sidedness of evaluation, improve the accuracy of evaluation.
Further, the described weather conditions according to producing region, described crops place, use Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to obtain
Producing region, described crops place Climate Comfort, including:
Effective accumulated temperature and producing region, the described crops place hydro-thermal within the period of maturation in the phenological period according to described crops
Coefficient, uses Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment that the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is divided into weather high-quality district, weather
Suitable Area and weather time Suitable Area.
Such as, the weather conditions to producing region, vinifera place, the Climate Comfort evaluation to producing region, vinifera place
Method And Principle is as follows with step: (it is assumed that the short production cycle of vinifera is 1 year, the production cycle that the present embodiment is chosen
It it is 2011-2015 years)
1) vinifera Climate Comfort assessment indicator system
According to wine grape growth weather conditions, choose vinifera phenological period 4～JIUYUE >=10 DEG C effective accumulated temperature, and 7
～two indexs of JIUYUE hydrothermic coefficient, utilize Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment that vinifera producing region is divided into weather high-quality district, weather fit
Yi Qu and weather time Suitable Area three class.
2) Method And Principle and step
Combine sample data according to China's Agroclimatic Delimitation of Wine Grape index, extract 4～JIUYUE >=10 DEG C effective accumulated temperature and
Period of maturation 7～two indexs of JIUYUE hydrothermic coefficient are classified as the evaluation index of vinifera Climate Comfort, Climate Comfort
Scope:
Weather high-quality district: ∑ T(4-9)> 2000 DEG C and K(7～9)<1.5；
Benign climate district: 1650 DEG C≤∑ T(4-9)≤ 2000 DEG C or 1.5≤K(7～9)≤2.0；
Weather time Suitable Area: ∑ T(4-9)< 1650 DEG C or K(7～9)>2.0。
Wherein: ∑ T(4-9)It is the effective of 2011-2015 years vinifera producing regions 4～JIUYUE (wine grape growth phase)
Accumulated temperature sum, K(7～9)It is 2011-2015 years vinifera producing regions 7～the hydrothermic coefficient of JIUYUE, K(7～9)=10*P(7～9)/
T(7～9), T(7～9)It is 7～JIUYUE accumulated temperature, P(7～9)It it is 7～JIUYUE the total precipitation.According to assessment indicator system, for vinifera weather
Suitability is marked, and gives property value, draws vinifera Climate Comfort evaluation result thematic map.
Further, described according to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule pair
Producing region, described crops place is evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation, including:
When described technical efficiency is more than or equal to first threshold, and the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is gas
Wait high-quality district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive high-quality district；
When described technical efficiency is less than first threshold and more than or equal to Second Threshold, producing region, the most described crops place
Climate Comfort is benign climate district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area；
When described technical efficiency is less than first threshold, and the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is that weather time is suitable
Yi Qu, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area.
Such as, principle and step for vinifera evaluation of adaptability method are as follows:
1) vinifera evaluation of adaptability index system
Based on different producing area vinifera Climate Comfort evaluation result, tie in conjunction with this producing region productive technical efficiency (TE)
Really, same employing Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment is divided into comprehensive high-quality district, Suitable Area and secondary Suitable Area three class.
2) Method And Principle and step.
Climate Comfort evaluation result is combined with technical efficiency TE, sets up vinifera evaluation of adaptability index body
System:
Comprehensive high-quality district: weather high-quality district and TE >=0.70；
Comprehensive Suitable Area: benign climate district or 0.60≤TE < 0.70；
Comprehensive Suitable Area: weather time Suitable Area or TE < 0.60.
Rendering technique efficiency distribution figure, superposition Climate Comfort evaluation result figure, final drafting vinifera is the most suitable
Property evaluation result thematic map.
Further, said method also includes:
Input cost according to each class Input Factors in described input cost and described yield, use surmount logarithm with
Machine Frontier Model obtains the coefficient of elasticity between each Input Factors and yield；
Evaluation of adaptability result according to described production estimation, the Climate Comfort in producing region, described place and described
Coefficient of elasticity, it is provided that the production suggestion of described crops；
Wherein, the input cost of described each class Input Factors is the input cost of fertilizers input, the input of pesticide input
Cost or the artificial input cost put into.
It should be noted that except the input cost having the input cost of fertilizers input, pesticide to put into, people in input cost
Outside the input cost that work puts into, the input cost also having other means of production to put into, differs herein and one lists.
Such as, choose vinifera productive technical efficiency measurement index, tie according to vinifera production process input and output
Structure, chooses following index as measuring and calculating vinifera technical efficiency variable: explained variable (dependent variable) yield；Explanatory variable
(variable) fertilizers input, pesticide put into, other materials input, manually input, time.Determine that employing surmounts through hypothesis testing right
Number stochastic Frontier Model measuring and calculating vinifera technical efficiency.
As follows with step to vinifera productive technical efficiency measuring and calculating principle:
1) logarithm stochastic Frontier Model is surmounted.Model form is:
Wherein, i is sample observation number, i=1,2,3 ...；T is observation period, mostly is the time, t=1,2,3 ....Yit
Represent the output of different observation unit different times；XitRepresent the different observation unit Productive statistics situation at different times；βj
For parameter to be estimated；VitRepresent random error, Normal Distribution Vit～i.i.d.N (0, σv 2), it is used for estimating random error and each
Plant uncontrollable factor；UitIndependent of Vit, for non-negative stochastic variable, represent technical ineffectiveness under given appropriate configuration because of
, owing to there is not non-technical efficiency item, it is assumed that its Normal Distribution N (0, σ in elementu 2)。
Extract vinifera input and output index as follows: YitRepresent vinifera yield, represent (pound/acre) by per mu yield；
X1=F, represents fertilizers input (unit/mu)；X2=D, represents that pesticide puts into (unit/mu)；X3=O, represent other materials put into (unit/
Mu)；X4=L, represents artificial and puts into (unit/mu)；X5=T, time variable, 2011,2012,2013,2014,2015 years respectively etc.
In 1,2,3,4,5.
The concrete form of model is set as (formula 2):
Through hypothesis testing and parameter estimation, determine the model of good fit sample data.
2) parameter estimation result analysis.
Use vinifera input-output data, estimate to surmount parameter in logarithm stochastic Frontier Model, utilize results of measuring
Analyze vinifera productive technical efficiency TE and each Input Factors output elasticity coefficient ε respectively.Each Input Factors output elasticity system
Number computing formula is (formula 3-6):
The positive and negative of each Input Factors output elasticity coefficient represents this Input Factors utilization rate situation, if just, explanation
The input strengthening this key element can increase output, otherwise, if negative, this illustrates that this Input Factors exists redundancy, should be suitable
Reduce this to put into, reduce input cost, reach to increase the effect of output.Through measuring and calculating to vinifera productive technical efficiency and
The raising of each Input Factors utilization rate proposes reasonability suggestion.
With further, the described evaluation of adaptability result according to described production estimation, the weather in producing region, place
Suitability and described coefficient of elasticity, it is provided that the production suggestion of described crops, including:
When the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is weather time Suitable Area, and described production estimation is comprehensive
Suitability evaluation result is comprehensive Suitable Area, or, the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is benign climate district,
And the evaluation of adaptability result of described production estimation is when being comprehensive Suitable Area or comprehensive Suitable Area, then advise increasing
Coefficient of elasticity is the input cost of positive production factors, reduces the input cost that coefficient of elasticity is negative production factors, to improve
The yield in producing region, described crops place and technical efficiency.
Specifically, produce suitability comprehensive evaluation result according to each producing region vinifera, contrast its Climate Comfort and comment
Valency result, proposes to improve the technical management suggestion of production efficiency in vinifera main producing region.
1. be secondary Suitable Area when certain producing region in Climate Comfort is evaluated, and in evaluation of adaptability be Suitable Area or
High-quality district, illustrates that this producing region vinifera technical management effect is preferable；When it is comprehensive Suitable Area, should want according to each input
Element output elasticity coefficient is adjusted, and suitably increasing output elasticity coefficient is positive production factor input cost, reduces coefficient and is
Negative production factor input cost, to improve output and the technical efficiency in this producing region.
2. be Suitable Area when certain producing region in Climate Comfort is evaluated, and in evaluation of adaptability, be high-quality district, answer
Continue to this producing region vinifera technical management mode；When it is comprehensive Suitable Area or secondary Suitable Area, should be according to each input
Output elasticity of factors coefficient is adjusted, and suitably increasing output elasticity coefficient is positive production factor input cost, reduces coefficient
For negative production factor input cost, to improve output and the technical efficiency in this producing region.
3. when certain producing region Climate Comfort evaluate in be high-quality district, should be according to each Input Factors output elasticity coefficient adjustment
Production factor input cost, suitably increasing coefficient is just, reducing coefficient is negative production factor input cost, it is ensured that is produced from this producing region
Go out and technical efficiency maintains higher level, make comprehensive high-quality producing region.
Specifically, Fig. 2 is that the concrete evaluation procedure of the evaluation of adaptability of production estimation that the present embodiment provides is shown
It is intended to, sees Fig. 2, the one aspect of the present invention measurement index by extractive technique efficiency, establishing techniques Efficiency model, obtain
Technical efficiency results of measuring.On the other hand, by extracting Climate Comfort evaluation index, Climate Comfort evaluation result is obtained.
Finally, building evaluation of adaptability index system, (such as, vinifera is the most suitable to obtain evaluation of adaptability result
Property evaluation result), due to produce suggestion proposition can be according to the output elasticity coefficient of each Input Factors depending on, so, propose
Produce and calculate the output elasticity of each production factors according to surmounting logarithm stochastic Frontier Model parameter estimation result before suggestion
Coefficient, output elasticity coefficient and evaluation of adaptability result in conjunction with each production factors propose to produce suggestion (such as, wine brewing Portugal
Grape produce suggestion).Optimized model in stochastic frontier analysis method is selected to surmount logarithm stochastic Frontier Model, measuring and calculating wine brewing Portugal
Grape technical efficiency, uses fuzzy synthetic appraisement method that vinifera is produced climate-index and technical efficiency is marked, set up
Climate Comfort assessment indicator system, and combination technology efficiency sets up evaluation of adaptability index system on this basis, for
Excavate vinifera and Suitable Area offer support is really provided, finally non-comprehensive high-quality producing region is proposed production improvement suggestion.The party
Method specifically includes:
Stochastic frontier analysis method, is used for calculating vinifera productive technical efficiency；
Fuzzy synthetic appraisement method, combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis evaluates vinifera Climate Comfort and comprehensive suitability；
Map overlay is analyzed, and is superposed with technical efficiency scattergram by vinifera Climate Comfort scattergram, overall merit
It produces suitability.
On the other hand, Fig. 3 is the structure of evaluation of adaptability system of the production estimation that the embodiment of the present invention provides
Block diagram, sees Fig. 3, the evaluation of adaptability system 30 of this production estimation, analyzes module including acquisition module 31, first
32, second module 33 and evaluation module 34 are analyzed.
Acquisition module 31, produces input cost and the yield of crops in obtaining the default production cycle；
First analyzes module 32, for according to described input cost and yield, uses stochastic frontier analysis method to obtain described
The technical efficiency of production estimation；
Second analyzes module 33, for the weather conditions according to producing region, described crops place, uses fuzzy overall evaluation
Method obtains the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place；
Evaluation module 34, for according to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule pair
Producing region, described crops place is evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation.
The evaluation of adaptability system 30 of the production estimation that the present invention provides, acquisition module 31 obtains the throwing of crops
Entering cost and yield, first analyzes module 32 obtains the technical efficiency of crops according to the input of crops and yield, second point
Analysis module 33 obtains the Climate Comfort in this producing region, crops place according to producing region, crops place, and weather is fitted by evaluation module 34
Preferably property and productive technical efficiency combines, the production suitability of overall merit crops, thus avoids the one-sidedness of evaluation, carries
The high accuracy evaluated.
The foregoing is only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, be not limited to the present invention, for the skill of this area
For art personnel, the present invention can have various modifications and variations.All within the spirit and principles in the present invention, that is made any repaiies
Change, equivalent, improvement etc., should be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. the evaluation of adaptability method of a production estimation, it is characterised in that including:
Obtain input cost and the yield producing crops in presetting the production cycle；
According to described input cost and yield, stochastic frontier analysis method is used to obtain the technical efficiency of described production estimation；
According to the production weather conditions in producing region, described crops place, Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment is used to obtain described crops place
The Climate Comfort in producing region；
According to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule, producing region, described crops place is entered
Row is evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation.
Method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the described weather bar according to producing region, described crops place
Part, uses Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to obtain producing region, described crops place Climate Comfort, including:
Effective accumulated temperature and producing region, the described crops place hydrothermic coefficient within the period of maturation in the phenological period according to described crops,
Use Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment that the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is divided into weather high-quality district, benign climate district
With weather time Suitable Area.
Method the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that described according to described technical efficiency and described benign climate
Property, is evaluated producing region, described crops place according to default evaluation rule, comprehensive using as described production estimation
Suitability evaluation result, including:
When described technical efficiency is more than or equal to first threshold, and the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is that weather is excellent
Matter district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive high-quality district；
When described technical efficiency is less than first threshold and more than or equal to Second Threshold, the weather in producing region, the most described crops place
Suitability is benign climate district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area；
When described technical efficiency is less than first threshold, and the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is that weather time is suitable
District, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area.
4. according to the method described in any one of claim 1-3, it is characterised in that also include:
Input cost according to each class Input Factors in described input cost and described yield, use surmount logarithm random before
The coefficient of elasticity between each Input Factors and yield is obtained along model；
Evaluation of adaptability result according to described production estimation, the Climate Comfort in producing region, described place and described elasticity
Coefficient, it is provided that the production suggestion of described crops；
Wherein, the input cost of described each class Input Factors is the input cost of fertilizers input, the input cost of pesticide input
Or the artificial input cost put into.
Method the most according to claim 4, it is characterised in that the described comprehensive suitability according to described production estimation is commented
Valency result, the Climate Comfort in producing region, place and described coefficient of elasticity, it is provided that the production suggestion of described crops, including:
When the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is weather time Suitable Area, and described production estimation is comprehensive suitable
Property evaluation result be comprehensive Suitable Area；Or, the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is benign climate district, and institute
When stating the evaluation of adaptability result of production estimation for comprehensive Suitable Area or comprehensive Suitable Area, then suggestion increases elasticity
Coefficient is the input cost of positive production factors, reduces the input cost that coefficient of elasticity is negative production factors, described to improve
The yield in producing region, crops place and technical efficiency.
6. the evaluation of adaptability system of a production estimation, it is characterised in that including:
Acquisition module, produces input cost and the yield of crops in obtaining the default production cycle；
First analyzes module, for according to described input cost and yield, uses stochastic frontier analysis method to obtain described crops
The technical efficiency produced；
Second analyzes module, for the production weather conditions according to producing region, described crops place, uses Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment
Obtain the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place；
Evaluation module, for according to described technical efficiency and described Climate Comfort, according to default evaluation rule to described agriculture
Producing region, crop place is evaluated, using the evaluation of adaptability result as described production estimation.
System the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described second analyzes module is additionally operable to according to described crops
Effective accumulated temperature and producing region, the described crops place hydrothermic coefficient within the period of maturation in phenological period, use Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment
The Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is divided into weather high-quality district, benign climate district and weather time Suitable Area.
System the most according to claim 7, it is characterised in that described evaluation module includes:
First evaluation unit, for when described technical efficiency is more than or equal to first threshold, and producing region, described crops place
Climate Comfort is weather high-quality district, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive high-quality district；
Second evaluation unit, for when described technical efficiency is less than first threshold and more than or equal to Second Threshold, the most described agriculture
The Climate Comfort in producing region, crop place is benign climate district, then evaluate the comprehensive suitability of described production estimation for comprehensive suitable
Yi Qu；
3rd evaluation unit, for being less than first threshold when described technical efficiency, and the weather in producing region, described crops place is fitted
Preferably property is weather time Suitable Area, then the comprehensive suitability evaluating described production estimation is comprehensive Suitable Area.
9. according to the system described in any one of claim 6-8, it is characterised in that also include:
3rd analyzes module, for the input cost according to each class Input Factors in described input cost and described yield,
Use the coefficient of elasticity surmounted between the logarithm stochastic Frontier Model each Input Factors of acquisition and yield；
Suggestion module, fits for the weather according to the evaluation of adaptability result of described production estimation, producing region, described place
Preferably property and described coefficient of elasticity, it is provided that the production suggestion of described crops；
Wherein, the input cost of described each class Input Factors is the input cost of fertilizers input, the input cost of pesticide input
Or the artificial input cost put into.
System the most according to claim 9, it is characterised in that described suggestion module is additionally operable to when described crops place
The Climate Comfort in producing region is weather time Suitable Area, and the evaluation of adaptability result of described production estimation is to fit for comprehensive time
Yi Qu, or, the Climate Comfort in producing region, described crops place is benign climate district, and the comprehensive of described production estimation is fitted
When preferably property evaluation result is comprehensive Suitable Area or comprehensive Suitable Area, then suggestion increases coefficient of elasticity is positive production factors
Input cost, reduces the input cost that coefficient of elasticity is negative production factors, to improve the yield in producing region, described crops place
And technical efficiency.
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