CN112767187A - Method for evaluating influence of climate change on potato growth based on GIS - Google Patents
Method for evaluating influence of climate change on potato growth based on GIS Download PDFInfo
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- CN112767187A CN112767187A CN202011246239.9A CN202011246239A CN112767187A CN 112767187 A CN112767187 A CN 112767187A CN 202011246239 A CN202011246239 A CN 202011246239A CN 112767187 A CN112767187 A CN 112767187A
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- 235000002595 Solanum tuberosum Nutrition 0.000 title claims abstract description 27
- 244000061456 Solanum tuberosum Species 0.000 title claims abstract description 27
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 19
- 230000035945 sensitivity Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 19
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 6
- 238000001556 precipitation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 5
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 4
- 238000012271 agricultural production Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 239000003337 fertilizer Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000003973 irrigation Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000002262 irrigation Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000004162 soil erosion Methods 0.000 claims description 2
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000004075 alteration Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000005484 gravity Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005286 illumination Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000006467 substitution reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06Q50/02—Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of climate change on potato growth based on a GIS (geographic information system). step one, a primary evaluation system plan is established; step two, carrying out quantitative and qualitative information statistics; step three, selecting alternative indexes for two rounds of screening; and step three, constructing a vulnerability evaluation index system. Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the sensitivity indexes comprise two primary indexes, namely a climate sensitivity index and a land utilization index, wherein the climate sensitivity index comprises four secondary indexes, namely a temperature suitability, a precipitation suitability, a sunlight suitability, a frost-free period and a disaster loss change. The reversed effect of climate suitability variation is used as a key index for evaluating climate sensitivity. Provides a new thought and technical method for researching the effect of climate change on the vulnerability of agriculture, and overcomes the limitation.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of agricultural production, in particular to a method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of climate change on potato growth based on a GIS.
Background
Most scholars at home and abroad study the vulnerability of the whole agricultural ecosystem, and rarely study the vulnerability of a single crop. Different crops have different requirements on climate and have different fragility to climate change, so that the study on the fragility of a single crop is a practical study direction and can provide good suggestions and countermeasures for crop management.
At present, a plurality of expert scholars put forward a comprehensive vulnerability evaluation index system for crops in China, but the common characteristics of the expert scholars are that the selected index is relatively single, and the method is limited.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a GIS-based method for evaluating the influence of climate change on potato growth, and aims to solve the problem.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: the method for evaluating the influence of climate change on potato growth based on GIS comprises the following steps of establishing a primary evaluation system plan; step two, quantitative qualitative information statistics; step three, selecting alternative indexes for two rounds of screening; and step three, constructing a vulnerability evaluation index system.
Preferably, two element layers are determined in the third step, namely a sensitivity index and a adaptability index.
Preferably, the sensitivity index comprises two primary indexes, namely a weather sensitivity index and a land utilization index.
Preferably, the weather-sensitive indexes comprise four secondary indexes of temperature suitability, precipitation suitability, daily illumination suitability, frost-free period and disaster damage change.
Preferably, the land utilization index comprises two secondary indexes of a water and soil erosion rate and a reclamation index.
Preferably, the adaptability index comprises an agricultural production index and a social and economic index.
Preferably, the agricultural production type indexes comprise six secondary indexes of effective irrigation area proportion (crops), per-capita potato cultivated land area, per-capita potato yield, potato yield per unit, agricultural mechanization degree and fertilizer application amount.
The social and economic indexes comprise three secondary indexes of per capita farmer income, non-agricultural total yield proportion and per capita domestic production total value.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the sensitivity indexes comprise two primary indexes, namely a climate sensitivity index and a land utilization index, wherein the climate sensitivity index comprises four secondary indexes, namely temperature suitability, precipitation suitability, sunlight suitability, frost-free period and disaster loss change. The reversed effect of climate suitability variation is used as a key index for evaluating climate sensitivity. Provides a new thought and technical method for researching the effect of climate change on the vulnerability of agriculture, and overcomes the limitation.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described below clearly and completely in connection with the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
And selecting an inner Mongolia autonomous region in China for test, and according to the characteristics of a research object, referring to the research results of the previous people and combining with the actual establishment of three principles for selecting the evaluation index. Respectively (1) comprehensive principle: and (4) considering various influence factors and expression modes, establishing a multi-index system, and performing comprehensive analysis and evaluation. (2) Dominant principle: highlighting the leading factor of the impact of climate change on the crispness of potato production. (3) Operability principle: specific factors with large effect, strong sensitivity and good operability are selected as indexes, so that the method is simple, convenient, effective and practical.
Screening indexes: according to the actual conditions of the autonomous region and the availability of index data, on the basis of the main principle of index system construction, statistical analysis is carried out according to quantitative and qualitative information of expert consultation, two rounds of expert consultation are utilized to screen alternative indexes, and finally an index system for evaluating the vulnerability of potato production under the climate change background of inner Mongolia is constructed (Table 1). Comprising 2 layers of elements, sensitivity and adaptability, respectively. The sensitivity indexes comprise two primary indexes, namely a climate sensitivity index and a land utilization index, wherein the climate sensitivity index comprises four secondary indexes, namely a temperature suitability degree, a precipitation suitability degree, a sunlight suitability degree, a frost-free period and a disaster loss change, and the land utilization index comprises two secondary indexes, namely a water and soil loss rate and a reclamation index. The adaptability indexes comprise agricultural production indexes and socioeconomic indexes, wherein the agricultural production indexes comprise six secondary indexes including effective irrigation area proportion (crops), per capita potato cultivated land area, per capita potato yield, potato yield per unit, agricultural mechanization degree and fertilizer application amount, and the socioeconomic indexes comprise three secondary indexes including per capita farmer income, non-agricultural gross output specific gravity and per capita domestic total production value.
TABLE 1 index for evaluating the vulnerability of the climate change to potato production
The vulnerability evaluation of the climate change on the potato production mainly concerns the sensitive factors influenced by various climate factor changes in the agricultural production process and the adaptability of the local social economy, the agricultural ecological environment and the agricultural production conditions to the climate change, and integrates two sets of indexes to judge the vulnerability of the climate change.
Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made in these embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the invention, the scope of which is defined in the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (8)
1. The GIS-based method for evaluating the effect of climate change on potato growth is characterized by comprising the following steps: step one, establishing a primary evaluation system plan; step two, carrying out quantitative and qualitative information statistics; step three, selecting alternative indexes for two rounds of screening; and step three, constructing a vulnerability evaluation index system.
2. The method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of GIS based climate change on potato growth according to claim 1, characterized in that: and determining two element layers in the third step, wherein the two element layers are respectively a sensitivity index and an adaptability index.
3. The method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of GIS based climate change on potato growth according to claim 2, characterized in that: the sensitivity index comprises two primary indexes, namely a climate sensitivity index and a land utilization index.
4. The method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of GIS based climate change on potato growth according to claim 3, characterized in that: the weather sensitive indexes comprise four secondary indexes of temperature suitability, precipitation suitability, sunlight suitability, frost-free period and disaster damage change.
5. The method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of GIS based climate change on potato growth according to claim 3, characterized in that: the land utilization indexes comprise two secondary indexes of water and soil erosion rate and reclamation index.
6. The method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of GIS based climate change on potato growth according to claim 2, characterized in that: the adaptability indexes comprise agricultural production indexes and social and economic indexes.
7. The method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of GIS based climate change on potato growth according to claim 6, characterized in that: the agricultural production indexes comprise six secondary indexes including effective irrigation area proportion, per-capita potato cultivation area, per-capita potato yield, potato yield per unit, agricultural mechanization degree and fertilizer application amount.
8. The method for evaluating the vulnerability influence of GIS based climate change on potato growth according to claim 6, characterized in that: the social and economic indexes comprise three secondary indexes of per capita farmer income, non-agricultural total yield proportion and per capita domestic production total value.
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN202011246239.9A CN112767187A (en) | 2020-11-10 | 2020-11-10 | Method for evaluating influence of climate change on potato growth based on GIS |
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| CN202011246239.9A CN112767187A (en) | 2020-11-10 | 2020-11-10 | Method for evaluating influence of climate change on potato growth based on GIS |
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Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20120123682A1 (en) * | 2010-02-25 | 2012-05-17 | Jai Ho Oh | Method and system for producing climate crisis index |
| CN106295953A (en) * | 2016-07-26 | 2017-01-04 | 中国农业大学 | A kind of production estimation suitability evaluation methods and system |
| CN109740956A (en) * | 2019-01-11 | 2019-05-10 | 陕西师范大学 | A kind of land ecology quality automatic evaluation method |
-
2020
- 2020-11-10 CN CN202011246239.9A patent/CN112767187A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20120123682A1 (en) * | 2010-02-25 | 2012-05-17 | Jai Ho Oh | Method and system for producing climate crisis index |
| CN106295953A (en) * | 2016-07-26 | 2017-01-04 | 中国农业大学 | A kind of production estimation suitability evaluation methods and system |
| CN109740956A (en) * | 2019-01-11 | 2019-05-10 | 陕西师范大学 | A kind of land ecology quality automatic evaluation method |
Non-Patent Citations (3)
| Title |
|---|
| 朱红根: "南方水稻对气候变化的脆弱性分析—以江西为例", 《农业现代化研究》, 31 March 2010 (2010-03-31), pages 208 - 211 * |
| 郭犹焕，李卫武主编: "《农业技术经济效益评价》", 31 October 1990, 北京农业大学出版社, pages: 263 - 266 * |
| 金林雪: "公开了内蒙古大豆气候适宜性变化及未来情景预估", 《江苏农业科学》, 30 June 2019 (2019-06-30), pages 134 - 137 * |
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