CN106156876A - The Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate - Google Patents
The Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides the Forecasting Methodology of a kind of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate, and the method includes: calculates a point annual production natural depletion amount according to development index in recent years, is calculated the natural declining rate in point year；Point year water injection rate according to CALCULATING OILFIELD in recent years, the amount in debt on statistics stratum, calculate point every year injection-production ratio；The number of plies note in point end of the year in year of statistics calculating target in recent years adopts corresponding rate；The product that oil field is divided injection-production ratio and number of plies note every year adopt corresponding rate carries out linear fit with year natural production decline amount change, obtains calculating the computing formula of year natural production decline amount；According to the computing formula of year natural production decline amount, it is calculated the decrement of next year natural production, then is calculated natural declining rate by the computing formula of lapse rate.The Forecasting Methodology of this waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate can meet filed application demand, effectively instructs the practice of middle and high infiltration water-drive pool ultra-high water-containing development late stage.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to oil field development technical field, especially relate to a kind of Thief zone waterflooding development oil reservoir at ultra-high water-containing
The Forecasting Methodology of later stage natural depletion.
Background technology
Natural declining rate refers to not bring in a well and the lapse rate of total output in the case of various well stimulation, i.e. new at deduction
The difference of the stage oil production after well and various well stimulation oil increment and upper stage oil recovery total amount, then with upper stage oil production
Ratio be referred to as natural declining rate.The actual extrapolation prediction next stage utilizing natural declining rate in mining site is put into practice
Natural depletion.Owing in the ultra-high water-containing later stage, upper stage oil recovery total amount is successively decreased year by year so that it is the credibility fall of result
Low.Theoretical research is partial to the research to influence factor more, such as, opens at all Polytechnics 2012 year oil gas field
Send out in the prosperous thesis of Engineering Speciality hair " natural depletion analysis of Influential Factors is set up with model ", elaborate by impact certainly
The factor so successively decreased, sets up the most one by one and affects the single factor test of natural depletion and the model of natural depletion, resettle multifactor
With the aggregative model of natural depletion, obtain the predictive value of natural declining rate according to model result.Its method application limitation exists
It is that model is set up in one comparatively laborious, is unfavorable for filed application；How parameter for multiple dissimilar oil reservoirs is predicted
, there is bigger error inconvenience application in the oil field natural declining rate of its composition.We have invented a kind of new water drive to open for this
The Forecasting Methodology of ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate hidden by hair oil, solves above technical problem.
Summary of the invention
After it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of fast and convenient waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing being easy to the operation of actual mining site
The Forecasting Methodology of phase natural declining rate.
The purpose of the present invention can be achieved by the following technical measures: waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate
Forecasting Methodology, the Forecasting Methodology of this waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate includes: step 1, according to closely
Development index over Nian calculates a point annual production natural depletion amount, is calculated the natural declining rate in point year；Step 2, according to closely
Point year water injection rate of the CALCULATING OILFIELD over Nian, the amount in debt on statistics stratum, calculate point every year injection-production ratio；Step 3, statistics is near
The number of plies note in point end of the year in year of the calculating target over Nian adopts corresponding rate；Step 4, divides injection-production ratio and number of plies note every year to adopt by oil field
The product of corresponding rate carries out linear fit with year natural production decline amount change, obtains calculating year natural production decline amount
Computing formula；Step 5, according to the computing formula of the annual natural production decline amount of step 4 matching, brings the note in the end of the year into
Adopt corresponding rate and injection-production ratio, be calculated the decrement of next year natural production, then calculated by the computing formula of lapse rate
Obtain natural declining rate.
The purpose of the present invention realizes also by following technical measures:
In step 1, the computing formula of natural declining rate is:
Q in formulaTotal outputFor calculating the total output in oil field then, unit is ten thousand tons；QNew well productionGo into operation for the oil field calculated then new
Well yield, unit is ten thousand tons；QStimulation yieldFor calculating the oil increment of oil field implementing measure operation then, unit is ten thousand tons；
QLast year total outputFor the total output in upper time in a year, unit is ten thousand tons；DNaturalFor natural declining rate, for percent.
In step 2, the formula of calculating point injection-production ratio every year is:
In formula: RZFor year injection-production ratio, for decimal；WiFor water injection rate, unit ten thousand stere, WkFor formation depletion amount,
Unit ten thousand stere.
In step 4, choosing rule section and carry out linear fit, the year injection-production ratio calculating point year adopts taking advantage of of corresponding rate with well layer note
Long-pending, and its natural production decline amount with succeeding year is fitted into linear formula, wherein year natural production is decremented to
Outcome variable, when correlation coefficient is more than certain value, i.e. can determine that the calculating that this formula is measuring and calculating year natural production decline amount
Formula.
In steps of 5, the year injection-production ratio asking for the end of the year computation year upper one year adopts the product value of corresponding rate with note, brings matching into
In the computing formula of the annual natural production decline amount gone out, it is calculated the decrement of year natural production, then by lapse rate
Computing formula be calculated natural declining rate.
The Forecasting Methodology of the waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate in the present invention, seeks product formula by individual well
It is closely related that qualitative analysis recognizes that change of production and injection-production ratio and note adopt corresponding rate, and obtains in ultra-high water-containing later stage statistics
The natural production decline amount of product and next year that the injection-production ratio in the upper end of the year and note adopt corresponding rate presents linear relationship, wherein notes
Adopting ratio for volume injection-production ratio, note is adopted corresponding rate and is taken as well layer note and adopts corresponding rate, thus avoid loaded down with trivial details theoretical derivation and
The processes such as analysis of Influential Factors, can obtain the natural depletion yield in an open block or whole oil field quickly and accurately,
And then it is calculated natural declining rate, do not restricted, for formulating phase in advance by how many etc. the factor of the exploitation number of plies, development block
The yield arrangement of the succeeding year answered provides decision-making foundation.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is a specific embodiment of the Forecasting Methodology of the waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate of the present invention
Flow chart；
Fig. 2 be the present invention a specific embodiment in A oilfield injection-production ratio and note adopt the product of corresponding rate and naturally pass with annual yield
Decrement change fit correlation figure.
Detailed description of the invention
For making the above and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention to become apparent, cited below particularly go out preferred embodiment,
And coordinate shown in accompanying drawing, it is described in detail below.
As it is shown in figure 1, the stream of the Forecasting Methodology of the waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate that Fig. 1 is the present invention
Cheng Tu.
In a step 101, calculate a point annual production natural depletion amount, development index in recent years calculate a point annual production and naturally pass
Decrement, obtains the computing formula of lapse rate.In one embodiment, the product in point year it is calculated according to the real data of oil field A
Amount natural depletion amount, unit is ten thousand tons, calculates point the natural depletion amount in year, a yield (being shown in Table 1).
Q in formulaTotal outputFor calculating the total output in oil field then, unit is ten thousand tons；QNew well productionGo into operation for the oil field calculated then new
Well yield, unit is ten thousand tons；QStimulation yieldFor calculating the oil increment of oil field implementing measure operation then, unit is ten thousand
Ton；QLast year total outputFor the total output in upper time in a year, unit is ten thousand tons；DNaturalFor natural declining rate, for percent；
Table 1.A divides annual production to change in oil field
In step 103, calculate the year injection-production ratio in point year, point year water injection rate of statistics CALCULATING OILFIELD in recent years, statistically
The amount in debt of layer, calculates and divides injection-production ratio every year.In one embodiment, calculate according to the actual development creation data of oil field A
To the injection-production ratio in point year, unit is decimal.
(2)
In formula: RZFor year injection-production ratio, for decimal；WiFor water injection rate, unit ten thousand stere, WkFor formation depletion amount,
Unit ten thousand stere.
Table 2.A oil field year injection-production ratio calculates parameter list
In step 105, the number of plies note calculating point year adopts corresponding rate, the layer in point end of the year in year of statistics calculating target in recent years
Number note adopts corresponding rate.In one embodiment, inquiry obtain A oil field the end of the year well layer note adopt corresponding rate, be shown in Table 2.
In step 107, choosing rule section and carry out linear fit, the year injection-production ratio calculating point year adopts corresponding rate with well layer note
Product, and its natural production decline amount with succeeding year is fitted into linear formula, wherein year natural production successively decreases
For outcome variable, when correlation coefficient is more than certain value, i.e. can determine that the meter that this formula is measuring and calculating year natural production decline amount
Calculate formula.In one embodiment, A oilfield injection-production ratio and note are adopted product and the year natural production decline amount change of corresponding rate
Carry out linear fit, as in figure 2 it is shown, obtain relational expression:
Y=-123.04X+111.74
(3)
Because of natural production decrement in formula, unit ten thousand tons；X is the product that A oilfield injection-production ratio and note adopt corresponding rate, is
Decimal, correlation coefficient is up to more than 0.9, and error is less to be met production and be actually needed；
In step 109, it was predicted that natural declining rate, the year injection-production ratio asking for the end of the year computation year upper one year adopts corresponding rate with note
Product value, bring the computing formula that step 107 obtains into, be calculated the decrement of year natural production, then by lapse rate
Computing formula be calculated natural declining rate.In one embodiment, the A oilfield injection-production ratio in the end of the year in 2012 and note are adopted right
Should the product 0.72 of rate, bring fitting formula into and be calculated formula 3, be calculated 2013 year natural production decline amounts 25.87
Ten thousand tons, formula 1 natural declining rates in 2013 being calculated prediction are 16.1%, 2013 annual actual production natural depletions
Measuring 27.1 ten thousand tons, actual natural declining rate is 16.8%, and the forecast error of natural declining rate is only 0.7 percentage point, symbol
Conjunction rate is 96%.
The Forecasting Methodology of the waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate in the present invention, in the ultra-high water-containing later stage,
Utilize stratum energy supplement relative quantity and note adopt correspondence direction on production decline statistics of variables relation, simulate nature
The computing formula of lapse rate yield, resultant error, within 5%, can meet filed application demand, effectively instruct middle and high infiltration water
The practice of oil reservoirs ultra-high water-containing development late stage.
Claims (5)
1. the Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate, it is characterised in that this waterflooding development oil reservoir is special
The Forecasting Methodology of late high water content period natural declining rate includes:
Step 1, calculates a point annual production natural depletion amount according to development index in recent years, is calculated the natural declining rate in point year；
Step 2, according to point year water injection rate, the amount in debt on statistics stratum of CALCULATING OILFIELD in recent years, calculates point every year injection-production ratio；
Step 3, the number of plies note in point end of the year in year of statistics calculating target in recent years adopts corresponding rate；
Step 4, the product that oil field is divided injection-production ratio and number of plies note every year adopt corresponding rate carries out line with year natural production decline amount change
Property matching, obtain calculating the computing formula of year natural production decline amount；
Step 5, according to the computing formula of the annual natural production decline amount of step 4 matching, the note bringing the end of the year into adopts corresponding rate and note
Adopt ratio, be calculated the decrement of next year natural production, then be calculated natural depletion by the computing formula of lapse rate
Rate.
The Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In, in step 1, the computing formula of natural declining rate is:
Q in formulaTotal outputFor calculating the total output in oil field then, unit is ten thousand tons；QNew well productionFor the calculating new well of oil field operation then
Yield, unit is ten thousand tons；QStimulation yieldFor calculating the oil increment of oil field implementing measure operation then, unit is ten thousand tons；
QLast year total outputFor the total output in upper time in a year, unit is ten thousand tons；DNaturalFor natural declining rate, for percent.
The Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In, in step 2, the formula of calculating point injection-production ratio every year is:
In formula: RZFor year injection-production ratio, for decimal；WiFor water injection rate, unit ten thousand stere, WkFor formation depletion amount, unit
Ten thousand stere.
The Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In, in step 4, to choose rule section and carry out linear fit, the year injection-production ratio calculating point year adopts taking advantage of of corresponding rate with well layer note
Long-pending, and its natural production decline amount with succeeding year is fitted into linear formula, wherein year natural production is decremented to
Outcome variable, when correlation coefficient is more than certain value, i.e. can determine that the calculating that this formula is measuring and calculating year natural production decline amount
Formula.
The Forecasting Methodology of waterflooding development oil reservoir ultra-high water-containing later stage natural declining rate the most according to claim 1, its feature exists
In, in steps of 5, the year injection-production ratio asking for the end of the year computation year upper one year adopts the product value of corresponding rate with note, brings matching into
In the computing formula of the annual natural production decline amount gone out, it is calculated the decrement of year natural production, then by lapse rate
Computing formula be calculated natural declining rate.
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| CN109409559A (en) * | 2017-08-17 | 2019-03-01 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | The determination method and device of Production Decline Prediction of Oilfield rate |
| CN109784705A (en) * | 2019-01-02 | 2019-05-21 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Predict the method, apparatus and storage medium of oil production |
| CN109816148A (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2019-05-28 | 成都北方石油勘探开发技术有限公司 | A kind of water controlled field development project discrete optimizing method |
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Cited By (4)
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| CN109409559A (en) * | 2017-08-17 | 2019-03-01 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | The determination method and device of Production Decline Prediction of Oilfield rate |
| CN109816148A (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2019-05-28 | 成都北方石油勘探开发技术有限公司 | A kind of water controlled field development project discrete optimizing method |
| CN109816148B (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2020-10-16 | 成都北方石油勘探开发技术有限公司 | Water-flooding oilfield development planning discrete optimization method |
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