CN104481502A - Method for using oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast crude output - Google Patents
Method for using oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast crude output Download PDFInfo
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- CN104481502A CN104481502A CN201410636312.1A CN201410636312A CN104481502A CN 104481502 A CN104481502 A CN 104481502A CN 201410636312 A CN201410636312 A CN 201410636312A CN 104481502 A CN104481502 A CN 104481502A
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- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH DRILLING; MINING
- E21B—EARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
- E21B47/00—Survey of boreholes or wells
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G16—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
- G16Z—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G16Z99/00—Subject matter not provided for in other main groups of this subclass
Abstract
The invention discloses a method for using an oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast crude output and relates to the crude output forecasting field. According to the method for using the oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast the crude output, when forecasting the crude output of the coming year, in order to successfully finish the production plan of the whole year, combining with the arrangement and plan situations of the actual production of an oil field, the monthly crude output of each of an old well, a new well and a service well is calculated through using the monthly natural descending rate of each of the old well, new well and/or service well. Because the method for using the oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast the crude output combines the actual production situation, the matching relationship between the forecast value and the actual production process is good, the forecast value can well guide the actual production process, the monthly forecast output can be finished and implemented better according to the actual production arrangement and production plan, and the production plan of the whole year can be finished smoothly.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to crude oil output forecast field, particularly relate to a kind of method utilizing reservoir configuration diminishing method to predict crude output.
Background technology
In oilfield development process, need to predict crude output next year and arrange crude oil production work next year and plan.Wherein, crude oil output forecast comprises the prediction of the prediction of natural production of old well, the prediction of service shaft output and new well production.
At present, people, when predicting the output of next year, only consider year natural declining rate usually, and utilize the annual production of previous year and the annual production of year natural declining rate prediction next year, recycling annual production calculates monthly average output next year.
The method of this prediction next year annual production and monthly output, because the forecast production value of every month is all identical, then in practice, the production task that every month is identical can be arranged, and the situation more complicated in actual production, having there are fault or special circumstances in certain moon possible, makes oil field or oily district to complete the production schedule, and then cause annual production not complete smoothly; And if in order to ensure that annual production can complete smoothly, strategy is produced in general employing, adopt active field management mode, but, because the predicted value of every month does not calculate according to upper product strategy, so, if actual production task and the production schedule arrange according to upper product strategy, the output of crude output and actual production arrangement and the plan predicted every month will be caused to disconnect, the actual production arrangement of every month and the production schedule is made to lack the guidance of predicted value, be difficult to complete smoothly and implement, thus ensure that annual production completes smoothly.
In prior art, people use a year natural declining rate, the prediction annual total output of next year and the output of every month, owing to adopting the monthly output predicted in this way and obtain, is utilize annual total output divided by the moon number of the whole year, the average obtained, there is larger gap with practical condition, therefore, adopt the monthly output of prior art prediction and actual production plan to disconnect, cannot implement preferably and complete, and then the output in the whole year may be caused to complete.
In the embodiment of the present invention, in conjunction with actual production arrangement, the output of prediction every month, then the output of production forecast whole year according to every month.And when annual output is fixing, can according to actual conditions, prediction obtains the output in different month.Such as, the tactical arrangement condition of production is next year produced in employing, what is called is produced strategy and refer to the thought can guaranteeing that yearly plan output smoothly, simply completes, such as: the first quarter attacks, steady for the second quarter, the upper product strategy robbed the third quater.Like this, the natural declining rate in different month is just different, and the production forecast value in different month is also different.Thus ensure that predicted value is always from practical condition, and then ensure in actual production, forecast production can be implemented preferably, there is not situation about can not hit the target.Meanwhile, due to according to different situations, different production strategies can be adopted, therefore, this Forecasting Methodology can also adapt to different condition of production uses; In addition, the Forecasting Methodology using the embodiment of the present invention to provide, can also pass through more different production strategies and operational mode, come the good production strategy of Selection radio and operational mode, completes annual task amount smoothly.
In whole oil field, the operation of natural production of old well, reflects the development management level in oil field, is determining to have important effect in the complexity that annual production completes.And the key factor affecting natural production of old well is a year natural declining rate, the factor affecting year natural declining rate is a lot, comprise oil-water well comprehensive utilization ratio and time rate, strata pressure level is high and low, note and adopt the good and bad of adjustment, water_bearing escalating rate fast with slowly, the length of the engineering time of upkeep operation and short, the length that the driving a well of oil well accident stops the well time and short etc., in a word, the various factors affecting output outside non-measure, all can have influence on completing of natural production of old well.Comprehensive analysis district over the years, ore deposit, oil field deduction last year new well under the impact of old well year natural declining rate change, make the curve of year natural declining rate and time t, utilize regression formula to determine the year natural declining rate of next year.
What the embodiment of the present invention provided utilizes reservoir configuration diminishing method to predict the method for crude output, according to reservoir configuration diminishing method, take into full account real work arrangement and the work plan of crude oil production, the year natural declining rate of the old well n month is used to calculate an old well n month to date annual production, the following formula of concrete employing:
Q
n＝q
o*T*(1-Di
n/100)
n/12
In formula,
Q
n, an old well n month to date annual production;
Q
o, demarcate daily output;
Di
n, the year natural declining rate of the old well n month;
Di, year natural declining rate, its value utilizes matching homing method to obtain;
Di
12＝di；
N, month;
T, n month to date calendar number of days.
By above-mentioned formula, after obtaining an old well n month to date annual production, according to an old well n month to date annual production, calculate the old well monthly oil production of n-th month and daily oil production, the following formula of concrete employing:
Q
zry＝(Q
n-Q
n-1)
q
zr＝Q
zry/t
n
In formula,
Q
zry, the monthly oil production of n-th month;
Q
zr, the daily oil production of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
Thus an old well n month to date annual production can be obtained, when n is 12, obtain yearly production forecast value; The monthly oil production of every month and daily oil production.
Wherein, the year natural declining rate Di of the old well n month
naccording to practical condition and scheduling of production, can select.Such as, in crude oil actual production, multiple different productive function can be adopted, comprise active productive function, leveling style productive function and passive-type productive function,
Wherein, active productive function refers to that the production task amount of having accumulated in the 1-6 month is higher than the production task amount of having accumulated the 7-12 month.Adopt this way to manage can ensure in the 7-12 month, well break down or other problems time, completing of annual production can also be guaranteed, namely grasp the initiative of whole year production.If adopt active productive function, then need the 1-6 month the moon natural declining rate lower than year natural declining rate, i.e. D
in<d
i, n represents month, is the natural number of 1-6.
Leveling style productive function refers to that the production task amount of every month in 1 year is all identical, if adopt leveling style productive function, then needs the moon natural declining rate in the whole year to equal a year natural declining rate, i.e. D
in=d
i, n represents month, is the natural number of 1-12.
Passive-type productive function refers to that the production task amount of having accumulated in the 1-6 month is lower than the production task amount of having accumulated the 7-12 month.Adopt this way to manage light for the first half, but the task amount of later six months is heavy, can not ensure in later six months, well break down or other problems time, completing of annual production can also be guaranteed, well can not grasp the initiative of whole year production.If adopt passive-type productive function, then need the 1-6 month the moon natural declining rate higher than year natural declining rate, i.e. D
in>d
i, n represents month, is the natural number of 1-6.
Simultaneously; by the moon predicted value obtained different productive function; compare in conjunction with actual production arrangement; can while prediction; select a more rational scheduling of production; thus can ensure while finishing the work, natural declining rate can be made to drop to minimum, preferably the old well of protection.
In addition, in crude oil output forecast process, also need to predict new well production, and arrange production time and the operation quantity of new well, in the prior art, in the prediction to new well production, owing to not considering the lapse rate of new well, so predict that the new well production obtained can be higher relative to the output that actual production completes, thus cause cannot completing predicted value in actual production.
In the embodiment of the present invention, calculate new well individual well day oil productive capacity according to new well monthly decline rate d, the following formula of concrete employing:
q
xj＝q
xi*(1-d’)
n
In formula,
Q
xj, new well individual well day oil productive capacity;
Q
xi, new well individual well is oil productive capacity just;
D ', new well monthly decline rate;
N, month.
According to above-mentioned formula, after obtaining new well individual well day oil productive capacity, according to this new well individual well day oil productive capacity, calculate new well monthly oil production, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level, concrete adopt following formula:
q
xjp＝Q
xjy/t
n
In formula,
Q
xjy, new well monthly oil production;
Q
xjn, new well yearly rate-oil production;
I, new Jing Jing number;
T, the producing days of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
Wherein, new well monthly decline rate d, the method that matching can be adopted to return obtains, and is specially:
By q
xj=q
xi* (1-d)
n
Be deformed into lnq
xj=ln q
xi+ n*ln (1-d),
If D=1-d,
Then lnq
xj=ln q
xi+ n*lnD,
D is returned to obtain through matching,
Then d=1-D;
In formula,
D, the new well moon decline rate.
According to the day oil productive capacity of new well, then combine the operation quantity of actual new well, according to above-mentioned formula, can calculate the monthly oil production of new well, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level.
Due in the embodiment of the present invention, consider the lapse rate of new well in actual production, so the predicted value obtained tallies with the actual situation more, completing smoothly of new well task amount can be ensured.
In oil field, except natural production of old well, new well production need to carry out to predict and arrange production, also need prediction measure well yield and arrange the production of service shaft.
In actual mechanical process, first need to determine the potentiality well number (Moc) of each oil field in next year, district, the every major measure in ore deposit (pressure break, change pump, perforations adding etc.).After determining service shaft number, on the one hand according to district, ore deposit actual development situation, excavate Oil Field Measure potentiality to greatest extent.On the other hand, produce due to annual joining and arrange all in 10-11 month, in order to ensure the production and management mode in next year complete and oily company to the cost budgeting of oil recovery factory, generally on the potentiality well number tentatively determined, strengthen 40-60%, substantially reach the situation that the actual needs that can meet field produces can meet again the budget layout of cost in next year.
In prior art, in the prediction to service shaft output, owing to not considering the lapse rate of service shaft, so predict that the service shaft output obtained can be higher relative to the output that actual production completes, thus cause cannot completing predicted value in actual production.
In the embodiment of the present invention, well yield computational methods can be adopted, obtain well yield, then according to the quantity of service shaft, calculate the total output of service shaft.Also can adopt dimensionless production computational methods, calculate the total output of service shaft.
Wherein, well yield computational methods be:
Service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity is calculated, the following formula of concrete employing according to service shaft monthly decline rate d ':
q
csn＝q
csi*(1-d’)
n
In formula,
Q
csn, service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity;
Q
csi, service shaft individual well is oil productive capacity just;
D ', service shaft monthly decline rate;
N, month.
According to above-mentioned formula, after obtaining service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity, according to service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity, calculate service shaft individual well monthly oil production, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level, specifically adopt following formula:
q
csp＝Q
csy/t
n
In formula,
Q
csy, service shaft monthly oil production;
Q
csn, service shaft yearly rate-oil production;
Q
csp, service shaft day oil production level;
I, service shaft number;
N, month;
T, the producing days of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
Wherein, service shaft monthly decline rate d ', the method adopting matching to return obtains, and is specially:
By q
csn=q
csi* (1-d ')
n
Be deformed into lnq
csn=ln q
csi+ n*ln (1-d '),
If D '=1-d ',
Then lnq
csn=ln q
csi+ n*ln D ',
D ' is returned to obtain through matching,
Then d '=1-D ';
In formula,
D ', the service shaft moon decline rate.
The day obtaining service shaft individual well is after oil productive capacity, in conjunction with the quantity of actual service shaft, according to above-mentioned formula, can the monthly oil production of all service shaft of CALCULATING OILFIELD, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level.
Due in the embodiment of the present invention, consider the lapse rate of service shaft in actual production, so the predicted value obtained tallies with the actual situation more, can the completing smoothly of safeguard measure well task amount.
According to service shaft dimensionless production design formulas, the method calculating measure well yield is:
Wherein 1-6 month measure well yield, adopts following formulae discovery:
Qn/Q＝a1*n
3+a2*n
2+a3*n+a4；
7-12 month measure well yield, adopts following formulae discovery:
Qn/Q＝A+B*n，
In formula:
A1, a2, a3, a4, A, B are coefficient, are obtained by matching homing method;
Q, service shaft annual production;
The year cumulative production of Qn, service shaft n month;
N, month.
According to the operation characteristic of the service shaft output in former years, obtained coefficient a1, a2, a3, a4, A, the B in above-mentioned dimensionless production design formulas by the method for statistics, recurrence, matching, thus determine the dimensionless production design formulas of service shaft.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of method utilizing reservoir configuration diminishing method to predict crude output, thus solve the foregoing problems existed in prior art.
To achieve these goals, the technical solution used in the present invention is as follows:
A kind of method utilizing reservoir configuration diminishing method to predict crude output, predict the method for the method of natural production of old well, prediction service shaft output and predict the method for new well production, it is characterized in that, according to reservoir configuration diminishing method, the year natural declining rate of the old well n month is used to calculate an old well n month to date annual production, the following formula of concrete employing:
Q
n＝q
o*T*(1-Di
n/100)
n/12，
In formula,
Q
n, an old well n month to date annual production;
Q
o, demarcate daily output;
Di
n, the year natural declining rate of the old well n month;
Di, year natural declining rate, its value utilizes matching homing method to obtain;
Di
12＝di；
N, month;
T, n month to date calendar number of days.
Further, according to a described old well n month to date annual production, calculate the old well monthly oil production of n-th month and daily oil production, the following formula of concrete employing:
Q
zry＝(Q
n-Q
n-1)，
q
zr＝Q
zry/t
n，
In formula,
Q
zry, the monthly oil production of n-th month;
Q
zr, the daily oil production of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
Further, calculate new well individual well day oil productive capacity according to new well monthly decline rate d, the following formula of concrete employing:
q
xj＝q
xi*(1-d)
n，
In formula,
Q
xj, new well individual well day oil productive capacity;
Q
xi, new well individual well is oil productive capacity just;
D, new well monthly decline rate;
N, month.
Further, according to described new well individual well day oil productive capacity, calculate new well monthly oil production, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level, concrete adopt following formula:
q
xjp＝Q
xjy/t
n，
In formula,
Q
xjy, new well monthly oil production;
Q
xjn, new well yearly rate-oil production;
I, new Jing Jing number;
T, the producing days of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
Particularly, described new well monthly decline rate d, the method adopting matching to return obtains, for:
By q
xj=q
xi* (1-d)
n
Be deformed into lnq
xj=ln q
xi+ n*ln (1-d),
If D=1-d,
Then lnq
xj=ln q
xi+ n*lnD,
D is returned to obtain through matching,
Then d=1-D;
In formula,
D, the new well moon decline rate.
Further, calculate service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity according to service shaft monthly decline rate d ', the following formula of concrete employing:
q
csn＝q
csi*(1-d’)
n，
In formula,
Q
csn, service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity;
Q
csi, service shaft individual well is oil productive capacity just;
D ', service shaft monthly decline rate;
N, month.
Further, according to described service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity, calculate service shaft monthly oil production, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level, specifically adopt following formula:
q
csp＝Q
csy/t
n，
In formula,
Q
csy, service shaft monthly oil production;
Q
csn, service shaft yearly rate-oil production;
Q
csp, service shaft day oil production level;
I, service shaft number;
N, month;
T, the producing days of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
8, the method for prediction crude output according to claim 6, is characterized in that, described service shaft monthly decline rate d ', and the method adopting matching to return obtains, and is specially:
By q
csn=q
csi* (1-d ')
n
Be deformed into lnq
csn=ln q
csi+ n*ln (1-d '),
If D '=1-d ',
Then lnq
csn=ln q
csi+ n*ln D ',
D ' is returned to obtain through matching,
Then d '=1-D ';
In formula,
D ', the service shaft moon decline rate.
Further, according to service shaft dimensionless production design formulas, calculate measure well yield,
Wherein 1-6 month measure well yield, adopts following formulae discovery:
Qn/Q＝a1*n
3+a2*n
2+a3*n+a4；
7-12 month measure well yield, adopts following formulae discovery:
Qn/Q＝A+B*n，
In formula:
A1, a2, a3, a4, A, B are coefficient, are obtained by matching homing method;
Q, service shaft annual production;
The year cumulative production of Qn, service shaft n month;
N, month.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: in the present invention, when crude output is next year predicted, in order to guarantee the production schedule completing whole year smoothly, in conjunction with arrangement and the projected conditions of oil field actual production, by using old well, the moon natural declining rate of new well and/or service shaft, calculate old well, every monthly oil production of new well and/or service shaft, due in forecasting process, combine practical condition, so predicted value and actual production process have good matching relationship, thus predicted value has good directive function to actual production process, also the forecast production of every month is enable better to complete according to the scheduling of production of reality and the production schedule and implement, and then ensure to complete the annual production schedule smoothly.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is natural production of old well daily output level run curve (controlled condition: Di
1~ Di
11<di, Di
12=di);
Fig. 2 is natural production of old well daily output level run curve (controlled condition: Di
1~ Di
12=di);
Fig. 3 is natural production of old well daily output level run curve (controlled condition: Di
1~ Di
11> di, Di
12=di);
Fig. 4 is that service shaft increases day by day oil level operation curve;
Fig. 5 increases oily matched curve in zero dimension measure year;
Fig. 6 is different field output operation trend correlation curves.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to make object of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly understand, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that detailed description of the invention described herein only in order to explain the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention.
Embodiment one, natural production of old well operation method
The reservoir configuration diminishing method that utilizes using the embodiment of the present invention to provide predicts the method for crude output, predicts at the natural production of old well in 2014 years Feng Cheng Oilfield Operation District, Karamay Oil Fields in Xinjiang block:
Work as Di
1~ Di
11<di, Di
12during=di, result is as shown in table 1 and Fig. 1, and in Fig. 1, abscissa is month, and ordinate is day oil production level.
As can be seen from Table 1, from the beginning of the year to the year end, the year natural declining rate of the n month increases gradually, until the year natural declining rate in December equals the year natural declining rate in this year, the annual production of n month to date increases gradually, until the accumulative annual production in December equals annual production, complete the production task in the whole year, monthly oil production and daily oil production reduce gradually; As can be seen from Figure 1, curve is the method for operation of convex output, and such annual production is run comparatively initiatively, can ensure that annual production can complete smoothly easily.
Work as Di
1~ Di
12during=di, result is as shown in table 2 and Fig. 2, and in Fig. 2, abscissa is month, and ordinate is day oil production level.
As can be seen from Table 2, from the beginning of the year to the year end, the year natural declining rate of the n month is constant, be equal to the year natural declining rate in this year, the annual production of n month to date increases gradually, until the accumulative annual production in December equals annual production, complete the production task in the whole year, monthly oil production and daily oil production reduce gradually; As can be seen from Figure 1, operation curve is straight line, and such annual production running and comparing is steady, can ensure that annual production can complete smoothly.
Work as Di
1~ Di
11> di, Di
12during=di, result is as shown in table 3 and Fig. 3, and in Fig. 3, abscissa is month, and ordinate is day oil production level.
As can be seen from Table 3, from the beginning of the year to the year end, the year natural declining rate of the n month reduces gradually, until the year natural declining rate in December equals the year natural declining rate in this year, the annual production of n month to date increases gradually, until the accumulative annual production in December equals annual production, complete the production task in the whole year, monthly oil production and daily oil production reduce gradually; As can be seen from Figure 3, curve is the method for operation of spill output, and it is more passive that such annual production is run, and substantially can ensure that annual production can complete smoothly.
Table 1 natural production of old well caluclate table
Table 2 natural production of old well caluclate table
Table 3 natural production of old well caluclate table
Associative list 1-3 and Fig. 1-3, different productive function is compared, can find out, in identical demarcation level 500 tons, when with identical prediction annual production (164250 tons), select different controlled condition (namely select the different n months year natural declining rate variation tendency or adopt different productive function), point monthly output trend of its prediction is different, thus in actual production process, the difficulty completing annual production is also different.As shown in table 4, can find out, when controlled condition is different, January is different with the output gap in December, and output gap is larger, and the task amount namely completed at the beginning of the year is more, then the task amount completed at the year end is fewer, can ensure to complete annual production easily.The risk that can not complete annual production can not be there is.
Therefore in the manufacturing process of reality, strengthen the dynamic analysis of production management and oil reservoir, Timeliness coverage problem is also dealt with problems, and reduces natural declining rate to greatest extent, guarantees the initiative that crude output completes.
Table 4 controls the result of calculation contrast table of different lapse rate
Embodiment two, new well production operation method
The reservoir configuration diminishing method that utilizes using the embodiment of the present invention to provide predicts the method for crude output, predicts the new well production of Feng Cheng Oilfield Operation District, Kelamayi City in 2014 years.
According to annual general arrangement and the production time of new well, in conjunction with well yield, predict the new well production in oil field according to the workload of new well and output, and monthly calculate the monthly oil production of new well.
The arrangement of T/A of bringing in a well is as shown in table 5, and predicting the outcome that the Forecasting Methodology of the new well production provided according to the embodiment of the present invention obtains is as shown in table 6.
The new well production information of forecasting table of table 5
The new well production caluclate table of table 6
| Month | Of that month calendar number of days | New Jing Jing number | Day oil productive capacity | Day oil production level (t) | Moon produce oil (t) | Year produce oil (t) |
| 1 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 5.8 | 180.0 | 180.0 |
| 2 | 28 | 4 | 25.52 | 19.0 | 532.7 | 712.7 |
| 3 | 31 | 6 | 38.47 | 31.3 | 968.6 | 1681.3 |
| 4 | 30 | 8 | 48.4 | 42.4 | 1271.3 | 2952.6 |
| 5 | 31 | 9 | 50.8 | 48.3 | 1495.7 | 4448.3 |
| 6 | 30 | 12 | 64.1 | 56.6 | 1698.6 | 6146.8 |
| 7 | 31 | 15 | 75.5 | 68.2 | 2114.2 | 8261.0 |
| 8 | 31 | 18 | 89.3 | 80.0 | 2479.3 | 10740.3 |
| 9 | 30 | 18 | 83.2 | 83.2 | 2496.2 | 13236.5 |
| 10 | 31 | 18 | 81.1 | 81.1 | 2513.9 | 15750.4 |
| 11 | 30 | 18 | 79.0 | 79.0 | 2371.1 | 18121.5 |
| 12 | 31 | 18 | 77.0 | 77.0 | 2388.0 | 20509.5 |
As can be seen from table 5 and table 6, owing to considering the lapse rate of new well, so predict that the new well production obtained can not be higher relative to the output that actual production completes, thus cause can completing predicted value in actual production.
Embodiment three, service shaft output operation method
The reservoir configuration diminishing method that utilizes using the embodiment of the present invention to provide predicts the method for crude output, predicts the service shaft output of Feng Cheng operation area, Karamay Oil Fields in Xinjiang in 2014 years.
When stimulation production is predicted normally, by analyzing, sounding out the people in a given scope one by one in order to break a criminal case, proposing the measure measure pound sign in next year, according to the measure units increased in production of individual well, calculating the stimulation production in the oil field in next year, You Qu, mining area.But when arranging the output in next year, according to this oil field in former years, the yield forming in mining area, measure formation and measure workload, determine the stimulation production of the whole year in next year, formulates the output of a macroscopical directiveness, arrange measure in the first half of the year as far as possible, strive for the initiative that output is increased production.
One, single well measure Production rate method is adopted, prediction service shaft output:
First according to oil field construction in summer situation, and consider seasonal variations, interval time that the time that brings in a well, main festivals or holidays in year and service shaft are cultivated, reasonable arrangement goes out annual measure workload, accomplish output and measure workload planned, have practicable, after determining annual workload, take into full account that the moon of service shaft is after natural declining rate, according to the first oil productive capacity of service shaft, calculate individual well day oil productive capacity, then calculate monthly oil production, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level.Due to the natural declining rate taking into full account service shaft, so the predicted value obtained can not be higher, the actual production schedule is completed.
Two, dimensionless production computational methods are adopted, prediction service shaft output:
According to the operation characteristic of the stimulation production in Feng Cheng operation area, Karamay Oil Fields in Xinjiang former years, see Fig. 4, in figure, abscissa is month, and ordinate is service shaft daily output.
According to the operation characteristic shown in Fig. 4, to year measure units increased in production by statistics, return, obtain matched curve, as shown in Figure 5, in figure, abscissa is month, and ordinate is therefore output, according to matched curve, obtains the value of different regression coefficients:
a1＝-0.0017、a2＝0.0257、a3＝-0.0279、a4＝0.02、A＝-0.1651、B＝0.0977)，
According to coefficient value, set up the formula that 1-6 month calculates service shaft output: Qn=(-0.0017*n3+0.0257*n2-0.0279*n+0.02) * Q, and 7-12 month calculate the formula of service shaft output: Qn=(0.0977*n-0.1651) * Q.
Utilize above-mentioned formula, prediction service shaft output.
Adopt different dimensionless production computational methods, different production run patterns can be obtained; Equally, different production run patterns, also can obtain different dimensionless production computational methods.In actual production process, whether different production run patterns, determine the active of two annual stimulation production, as shown in Figure 6, in figure, abscissa is month, and ordinate is dimensionless production, the pattern in 1 expression A oil field, the pattern in 2 expression B oil fields, the pattern in 3 expression C oil fields.As can be seen from Figure 6, in July, if select the pattern in A oil field, output is high, requires 1-8 month many arrangements measure workload, guarantees that annual stimulation production initiatively.If utilize C oil field pattern, measure workload then lags, and when year, stimulation production was identical, then completes output more passive.
The fitting formula of the pattern in the pattern in above-mentioned A oil field, the pattern in B oil field and C oil field is as shown in table 7.
The fitting formula of the oil field operational mode that table 7 is different
The crude oil output forecast method that the embodiment of the present invention provides, can practice weekly notes well production predict, thus service shaft workload and output can be assigned to every month, select the measure model of applicable practical condition, guarantee to complete year-round operation amount smoothly; Additionally provide a kind of zero dimension stimulation production Forecasting Methodology, flexibly and easily simultaneously.
As will be understood by the skilled person in the art, in crude oil output forecast process, except old well being run naturally to output, new well production and service shaft output and predicting, also need the total output to oil field or oily district, moisture content, liquid measure and water injection rate etc. predict, in the embodiment of the present invention, the total output in oil field or oily district, moisture content, liquid measure and water injection rate etc. are carried out to prediction and ordinary skill in the art means can be adopted to carry out.
What the embodiment of the present invention provided utilizes reservoir configuration diminishing method to predict the method for crude output, all can adopt computer software in a computer to realize.
By adopting technique scheme disclosed by the invention, obtain effect useful as follows: in the present invention, when crude output is next year predicted, in order to guarantee the production schedule completing whole year smoothly, in conjunction with arrangement and the projected conditions of oil field actual production, by using old well, the moon natural declining rate of new well and/or service shaft, calculate old well, every monthly oil production of new well and/or service shaft, due in forecasting process, combine practical condition, so predicted value and actual production process have good matching relationship, thus predicted value has good directive function to actual production process, also the forecast production of every month is enable better to complete according to the scheduling of production of reality and the production schedule and implement, and then ensure to complete the annual production schedule smoothly.
Each embodiment in this manual all adopts the mode of going forward one by one to describe, and what each embodiment stressed is the difference with other embodiments, between each embodiment identical similar part mutually see.
Those skilled in the art it should be understood that the sequential of the method step that above-described embodiment provides can carry out accommodation according to actual conditions, also can carry out according to actual conditions are concurrent.
The hardware that all or part of step in the method that above-described embodiment relates to can carry out instruction relevant by program has come, described program can be stored in the storage medium that computer equipment can read, for performing all or part of step described in the various embodiments described above method.Described computer equipment, such as: personal computer, server, the network equipment, intelligent mobile terminal, intelligent home device, wearable intelligent equipment, vehicle intelligent equipment etc.; Described storage medium, such as: the storage of RAM, ROM, magnetic disc, tape, CD, flash memory, USB flash disk, portable hard drive, storage card, memory stick, the webserver, network cloud storage etc.
Finally, also it should be noted that, in this article, the such as relational terms of first and second grades and so on is only used for an entity or operation to separate with another entity or operating space, and not necessarily requires or imply the relation that there is any this reality between these entities or operation or sequentially.And, term " comprises ", " comprising " or its any other variant are intended to contain comprising of nonexcludability, thus make to comprise the process of a series of key element, method, commodity or equipment and not only comprise those key elements, but also comprise other key elements clearly do not listed, or also comprise by the intrinsic key element of this process, method, commodity or equipment.When not more restrictions, the key element limited by statement " comprising ... ", and be not precluded within process, method, commodity or the equipment comprising described key element and also there is other identical element.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention; it should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention; can also make some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications also should look protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. the method utilizing reservoir configuration diminishing method to predict crude output, comprise: predict the method for the method of natural production of old well, prediction service shaft output and predict the method for new well production, it is characterized in that, according to reservoir configuration diminishing method, the year natural declining rate of the old well n month is used to calculate an old well n month to date annual production, the following formula of concrete employing:
Q
n＝q
o*T*(1-Di
n/100)
n/12，
In formula,
Q
n, an old well n month to date annual production;
Q
o, demarcate daily output;
Di
n, the year natural declining rate of the old well n month;
Di, year natural declining rate, its value utilizes matching homing method to obtain;
Di
12＝di；
N, month;
T, n month to date calendar number of days.
2. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 1, is characterized in that, according to a described old well n month to date annual production, calculates the old well monthly oil production of n-th month and daily oil production, the following formula of concrete employing:
Q
zry＝(Q
n-Q
n-1)，
q
zr＝Q
zry/t
n，
In formula,
Q
zry, the monthly oil production of n-th month;
Q
zr, the daily oil production of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
3. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 1, is characterized in that, calculates new well individual well day oil productive capacity according to new well monthly decline rate d, the following formula of concrete employing:
q
xj＝q
xi*(1-d)
n，
In formula,
Q
xj, new well individual well day oil productive capacity;
Q
xi, new well individual well is oil productive capacity just;
D, new well monthly decline rate;
N, month.
4. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 3, is characterized in that, according to described new well individual well day oil productive capacity, calculate new well monthly oil production, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level, concrete adopt following formula:
q
xjp＝Q
xjy/t
n，
In formula,
Q
xjy, new well monthly oil production;
Q
xjn, new well yearly rate-oil production;
I, new Jing Jing number;
T, the producing days of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
5. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 3, is characterized in that, described new well monthly decline rate d, and the method adopting matching to return obtains, and is specially:
By q
xj=q
xi* (1-d)
n
Be deformed into lnq
xj=ln q
xi+ n*ln (1-d),
If D=1-d,
Then lnq
xj=ln q
xi+ n*lnD,
D is returned to obtain through matching,
Then d=1-D;
In formula,
D, the new well moon decline rate.
6. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 1, is characterized in that, calculates service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity according to service shaft monthly decline rate d ', the following formula of concrete employing:
q
csn＝q
csi*(1-d’)
n，
In formula,
Q
csn, service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity;
Q
csi, service shaft individual well is oil productive capacity just;
D ', service shaft monthly decline rate;
N, month.
7. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 6, is characterized in that, according to described service shaft individual well day oil productive capacity, calculate service shaft monthly oil production, yearly rate-oil production and day oil production level, specifically adopt following formula:
q
csp＝Q
csy/t
n，
In formula,
Q
csy, service shaft monthly oil production;
Q
csn, service shaft yearly rate-oil production;
Q
csp, service shaft day oil production level;
I, service shaft number;
N, month;
T, the producing days of n-th month;
T
n, the calendar number of days of n-th month.
8. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 6, is characterized in that, described service shaft monthly decline rate d ', and the method adopting matching to return obtains, and is specially: q
csn=q
csi* (1-d ')
n
By q
csn=q
csi* (1-d ')
n
Be deformed into lnq
csn=ln q
csi+ n*ln (1-d '),
If D '=1-d ',
Then lnq
csn=ln q
csi+ n*ln D ',
D ' is returned to obtain through matching,
Then d '=1-D ';
In formula,
D ', the service shaft moon decline rate.
9. the method for prediction crude output according to claim 1, is characterized in that, according to service shaft dimensionless production design formulas, calculates measure well yield,
Wherein 1-6 month measure well yield, adopts following formulae discovery:
Qn/Q＝a1*n
3+a2*n
2+a3*n+a4；
7-12 month measure well yield, adopts following formulae discovery:
Qn/Q＝A+B*n，
In formula:
A1, a2, a3, a4, A, B are coefficient, are obtained by matching homing method;
Q, service shaft annual production;
The year cumulative production of Qn, service shaft n month;
N, month.
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