CN105894741B - A kind of the flood damage monitoring warning device and method of multiple resource fusion - Google Patents
A kind of the flood damage monitoring warning device and method of multiple resource fusion Download PDFInfo
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- CN105894741B CN105894741B CN201610289120.7A CN201610289120A CN105894741B CN 105894741 B CN105894741 B CN 105894741B CN 201610289120 A CN201610289120 A CN 201610289120A CN 105894741 B CN105894741 B CN 105894741B
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08B—SIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
- G08B21/00—Alarms responsive to a single specified undesired or abnormal condition and not otherwise provided for
- G08B21/02—Alarms for ensuring the safety of persons
- G08B21/10—Alarms for ensuring the safety of persons responsive to calamitous events, e.g. tornados or earthquakes
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08B—SIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
- G08B31/00—Predictive alarm systems characterised by extrapolation or other computation using updated historic data
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A50/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE in human health protection, e.g. against extreme weather
Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of the flood damage monitoring warning device and method of multiple resource fusion, including hydrology fact module, traffic forecast module, weather forecast module, Radar module, forecast Fusion Module and product are shown and early warning release module.Method is that 1) hydrology fact module reads data of monitoring point and monitored；2) weather forecast module reads input data and parameter, carries out Meteorological Models forecast；3) data of monitoring point that traffic forecast module provides according to Meteorological Models forecast and hydrology fact module, carries out traffic forecast；4) Radar module reads radar master data and carries out pinch-reflex ion diode and extrapolated with optical flow method；5) information and the output of forecast fusion mould fusion traffic forecast module and Radar module；6) product shows that completing product with early warning release module shows and early warning issue.Both accuracy of the radar Extrapotated prediction in terms of Precipitation forecast system position had been considered, it is contemplated that the ability of numerical model forecast, avoids the limitation of single method.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to meteorological disaster early warning field, and in particular to a kind of flood damage monitoring and warning dress of multiple resource fusion
Put and method.
Background technology
Traditional hydrologic forecasting method based on observation precipitation can not meet the requirement of flood forecasting and flood control and disaster reduction, with number
It is worth the development of model predictions, utilizes the Quantitative Precipitation product of numerical forecast, it is possible to increase the precision of flood forecasting.It is but existing to ask
Topic is that flood forecasting excessively relies on the Quantitative Precipitation product of Meteorological Models, such as slight error of Quantitative Precipitation product, precipitation core
Position and rainfall etc., the significant errors of traffic forecast can be caused.And the accuracy rate of quantitative Precipitation Products depending on pattern except moving
Power framework, additionally depends on Data Assimilation.At present, mode power framework and Data Assimilation are all significantly improved space,
Solve these problems, turn into the direction of prior art development.
The content of the invention
Goal of the invention：In order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of flood of multiple resource fusion
Disaster monitoring prior-warning device and method, by by the combination of radar extrapolation technique and flood forecasting technology, solving prior art
The problem of.
Technical scheme：To achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is：A kind of flood calamity of multiple resource fusion
Evil monitoring warning device, it is characterised in that including hydrology fact module, traffic forecast module, weather forecast module, Radar
Module, forecast Fusion Module and product are shown and early warning release module；
The hydrology fact module and weather forecast module are respectively connected to traffic forecast module input；The traffic forecast
Module output end and Radar module output end are respectively connected to forecast Fusion Module；The forecast Fusion Module output end access
Product is shown and warning module.
Further, hydrology fact module includes river course monitoring submodule and rainfall detection submodule, two submodules
Input of the output end as hydrology fact module；The Hydrologic Information in the river course monitoring submodule collection river course, the rain
Measure detection sub-module collection rain information data；The hydrology fact module realizes water amount alarm.
Further, the weather forecast module includes GFS weather forecasts submodule and real-time weather submodule.
Further, tell Radar module include real time radar message sub-module, radar optical flow analysis submodule and
Artificial weight distribution submodule；The radar information submodule output end is divided into two-way, accesses radar optical flow analysis submodule all the way
Block input, another way access artificial weight distribution submodule input；The radar optical flow analysis submodule output end connection
Artificial weight distribution submodule input；The artificial weight distribution submodule output end is as Radar module output end.
Further, the forecast Fusion Module is used for the Annual distribution situation and spatial distribution feelings of flow after being merged
Condition.
Further, the product is shown includes product display sub-module and early warning issue submodule with early warning release module
Block.
A kind of flood damage monitoring and pre-alarming method of multiple resource fusion, it is characterised in that this method comprises the following steps：
1) hydrology fact module reads data of monitoring point and monitored；
2) weather forecast module reads input data and parameter, carries out Meteorological Models forecast；
3) data of monitoring point that traffic forecast module provides according to Meteorological Models forecast and hydrology fact module, carries out flow
Forecast；
4) Radar module reads radar master data and carries out pinch-reflex ion diode and extrapolated with optical flow method；
5) information and the output of forecast fusion mould fusion traffic forecast module and Radar module；
6) product shows that completing product with early warning release module shows and early warning issue.
Further, in step 1), the hydrology fact module is by the read-write operation to acquisition database, to gathering number
Decoding is carried out according to the Hydrologic Information in storehouse and rain information data to show, when real time water level or rainfall are beyond the warning water of setting
Automatic alarm during position；
In step 2), the initial fields and boundary condition of the input data and parameter as weather forecast module, including GFS
The local synoptic data that the GFS Grid datas and real-time weather submodule that weather forecast submodule provides provide；During daily Beijing
10 points and 16 points timing automatic download input datas and parameter, and Forecast Mode parameter, the forecast are configured after download
Mode parameter choose 15km and 5km two layers is nested, and vertical resolution is 27 layers, and top layer air pressure is 50hPa, time of integration step-length
For 60s, as a result to export per hour once；Obtain precipitation forecast value；
In step 3), the precipitation forecast value in the traffic forecast module extraction weather forecast module, using arithmetic average
Method or Thiessen polygon method calculate the areal rainfall of precipitation, if the forecasting runoff of precipitation reaches concern basin warning line flow
75%, judge the basin reach occur flood Weather Risk value, output flow predicted value；
In step 4), the Radar module is according to the plan target time set in advance, according to meter set in advance
Task time, real time radar message sub-module active obtaining meteorological data file are drawn, and meteorological data document classification is stored in
In system memory block；And base data decoding, the execution of optical flow method extrapolation algorithm are carried out, the following 0-2 in output concern basin
Hour radar extrapolation precipitation value；
In step 5), forecast Fusion Module according to weight distribution parameter set in advance, determines radar extrapolation precipitation first
The weight coefficient of value, then read step 3) the middle traffic forecast value that obtains, calculated by fusion formula, generate fusion value, obtain
The Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of flow after must merging；
In step 6), the Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of the flow drawn by step 5) carry out early warning and sentenced
It is disconnected, if without warning information, into conventional detection state, return to step 1), carry out live detection into hydrology fact module；If have
Warning information, then early warning plan and scheme are called, and the issue of warning information is carried out according to the rank of early warning scheme.
Further, in the step 4), the x of each Grid data, the ladder in y directions are calculated by calculating Sobel Operator
Degree and data as time same coordinates at continuous two subtract each other obtained by time difference；Solved according to the iterative equation of optical flow method
The motion vector of each lattice point, carry out strong convection identification extrapolation；It is defeated when occurring strong convective weather in extrapolated concern basin
The following 0-2 hours precipitation trend for going out to pay close attention to basin is radar extrapolation precipitation value.
Further, in the step 5), the fusion formula is：F (t)=xe(1-t)+wy·[1-e(1-t)]
In formula：
T is to call time in advance；
X is traffic forecast value, if without departing from flow normal value, x=0；
W is the weight factor that weather forecast subjectivity is corrected；
Y represents the precipitation trend with the Radar in x respective regions.
Beneficial effect：The flood damage monitoring warning device and method of a kind of multiple resource fusion provided by the invention, pay attention to
The information and subjectivity of radar extrapolation algorithm correct the factor, and the products such as Meteorological Forecast Model, hydrological model and radar extrapolation lead to
Cross fusion formula and produce fusion product, compensate for the deficiency of traditional forecasting procedure, realize and more accurately approach true solution, improve flood
The accuracy rate of water forecast.Both accuracy of the radar Extrapotated prediction in terms of Precipitation forecast system position had been considered, it is contemplated that number
It is worth the ability of model predictions, avoids the limitation of single method.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the structured flowchart of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
It is as shown in Figure 1 a kind of flood damage monitoring warning device of multiple resource fusion, it is characterised in that real including the hydrology
Condition module 1, traffic forecast module 2, weather forecast module 3, Radar module 4, forecast Fusion Module 5 and product show with advance
Alert release module 6；
The hydrology fact module and weather forecast module are respectively connected to traffic forecast module input；The traffic forecast
Module output end and Radar module output end are respectively connected to forecast Fusion Module；The forecast Fusion Module output end access
Product is shown and warning module.
Hydrology fact module includes river course monitoring submodule and rainfall detection submodule, and the output end of two submodules is made
For the output end of hydrology fact module；The Hydrologic Information in the river course monitoring submodule collection river course, the rainfall detection submodule
Block gathers rain information data, and when river course regimen exceedes the rain condition at warning or rainfall detection station more than warning, sends report
It is alert.
The weather forecast module includes GFS weather forecasts submodule and real-time weather submodule.In the present invention, GFS moneys
The GFS data provided for the pre- measured center of Environmental is provided, is Grid data information；Real-time weather submodule provides local
Station data information.
Told Radar module includes real time radar message sub-module, radar optical flow analysis submodule and artificial weight point
Sub-module；The radar information submodule output end is divided into two-way, accesses radar optical flow analysis submodule input all the way, separately
Artificial weight distribution submodule input is accessed all the way；The radar optical flow analysis submodule output end connects artificial weight distribution
Submodule input；The artificial weight distribution submodule output end is as Radar module output end.
The flood damage monitoring and pre-alarming method that the forecast Fusion Module merges according to a kind of multiple resource, flows after being merged
The Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of amount；
The product is shown includes two parts of product display sub-module and early warning issue submodule with early warning release module.
A kind of flood damage monitoring and pre-alarming method of multiple resource fusion, it is characterised in that this method comprises the following steps：Choosing
One piece of region is taken, as concern basin, the area of posting field, river course quantity, sets river course to monitor submodule at equal intervals along river course
The monitoring point of block；The monitoring point of rainfall detection station submodule is uniformly arranged in concern basin.
1) hydrology fact module reads data of monitoring point and monitored；
Hydrology fact module includes river course monitoring two submodules of submodule and rainfall detection submodule.Wherein, river course is supervised
Submodule is surveyed to be acquired the SEA LEVEL VARIATION information for being deployed in river course key area water-level gauge and reach collection number by network
According to storehouse；The rainfall information of each rainfall observation website is acquired and reaches collection number by network by rainfall detection submodule
According to storehouse.
In the hydrology fact module, acquisition database is used to deposit river course monitoring submodule and rainfall detection submodule is adopted
Collect data.Hydrology fact module is mainly responsible for by the read-write operation to acquisition database, and the regimen in acquisition database is believed
Breath and rain information data carry out decoding and shown, and when the warning line of real time water level or rainfall beyond setting, dangerous water
Automatic alarm during position.
2) weather forecast module reads input data and parameter, carries out Meteorological Models forecast；
The initial fields and boundary condition of the input data and parameter as weather forecast module, including GFS weather forecasts
The local synoptic data that the GFS Grid datas and real-time weather submodule that submodule provides provide；10 points and 16 during daily Beijing
The timing automatic download input data of point and parameter, and Forecast Mode parameter, the Forecast Mode parameter are configured after download
15km is chosen with 5km two layers is nested, and vertical resolution is 27 layers, and top layer air pressure is 50hPa, and time of integration step-length is 60s, knot
Fruit is to export per hour once；Obtain precipitation forecast value；
3) data of monitoring point that traffic forecast module provides according to Meteorological Models forecast and hydrology fact module, carries out flow
Forecast；
Precipitation forecast value in the traffic forecast module extraction weather forecast module is more using arithmetic mean method or Tyson
Side shape method calculates the areal rainfall of precipitation, if the forecasting runoff of precipitation reaches the 75% of concern basin warning line flow, sentences
The fixed basin reaches the Weather Risk value that flood occurs, output flow predicted value；
4) Radar module reads radar master data and carries out pinch-reflex ion diode and extrapolated with optical flow method；
The Radar module is according to the plan target time set in advance, during according to plan target set in advance
Between, real time radar information module active obtaining meteorological data file, and meteorological data document classification is stored in system memory block
In；And base data decoding, the execution of optical flow method extrapolation algorithm are carried out, outside the following 0-2 hours radar in output concern basin
Push away precipitation value；
Specifically, calculate the x of each Grid data by calculating Sobel Operator, the gradient in y directions and by continuous two
When individual the data of time same coordinate subtract each other obtained by time difference；The motion of each lattice point is solved according to the iterative equation of optical flow method
Vector, carry out strong convection identification extrapolation；When occurring strong convective weather in extrapolated concern basin, output concern basin is not
Carry out 0-2 hours precipitation trend for radar extrapolation precipitation value.
5) information and the output of forecast fusion mould fusion traffic forecast module and Radar module；
Fusion Module is forecast first according to weight distribution parameter set in advance, determines the weight system of radar extrapolation precipitation value
Number, then read step 3) the middle traffic forecast value that obtains, calculated by fusion formula, generate fusion value, flowed after being merged
The Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of amount；F (x) is subjected to graphic plotting, carried out in the form of color in figure and curve map
Data display.
The fusion formula is：F (t)=xe(1-t)+wy·[1-e(1-t)]
In formula：
T is to call time in advance；
X is traffic forecast value, if without departing from flow normal value, x=0；
W is the weight factor that weather forecast subjectivity is corrected；
Y represents the precipitation trend with the Radar in x respective regions.
6) product shows that completing product with early warning release module shows and early warning issue；
The Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of the flow drawn by step 5) by product display sub-module come
Show the conclusion of step 5)；Business personnel can pass through the Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of the flow that step 5) is drawn
Early warning judgement is carried out, if without warning information, into conventional detection state, return to step 1), carried out into hydrology fact module real
Condition detects；If there is warning information, early warning plan and scheme are called, and the hair of warning information is carried out according to the rank of early warning scheme
Cloth.
Flood damage monitoring and pre-alarming method based on a kind of fusion of multiple resource carries out flood sample early warning experiment, to certain station two
Flood events are forecast, contrast live discovery, the correct early warning of flood play energy for actually occurring mountain torrents, and in river course
3~6h just have issued early warning before measured discharge reaches safety discharge, is speedily carried out rescue work for mountain torrents and provides 3~6h response time.
Described above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that：For the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications also should
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of flood damage monitoring warning device of multiple resource fusion, it is characterised in that including hydrology fact module (1), stream
Measure forecast module (2), weather forecast module (3), Radar module (4), forecast Fusion Module (5) and product is shown and early warning
Release module (6)；
The hydrology fact module and weather forecast module are respectively connected to traffic forecast module input；The traffic forecast module
Output end and Radar module output end are respectively connected to forecast Fusion Module；The forecast Fusion Module output end access product
Display and warning module；
The Radar module includes real time radar message sub-module, radar optical flow analysis submodule and artificial weight distribution
Module；The radar information submodule output end is divided into two-way, accesses radar optical flow analysis submodule input, another way all the way
Access artificial weight distribution submodule input；The radar optical flow analysis submodule output end connects artificial weight distribution submodule
Block input；The artificial weight distribution submodule output end is as Radar module output end.
2. the flood damage monitoring warning device of a kind of multiple resource fusion as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the hydrology is real
Condition module includes river course monitoring submodule and rainfall detection submodule, and the output end of two submodules is as hydrology fact module
Input；The Hydrologic Information in the river course monitoring submodule collection river course, the rainfall detection submodule gather rain information
Data；The hydrology fact module realizes water amount alarm.
A kind of 3. flood damage monitoring warning device of multiple resource fusion as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the day
Gas forecast module includes GFS weather forecasts submodule and real-time weather submodule.
4. the flood damage monitoring warning device of a kind of multiple resource fusion as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that described pre-
Report Fusion Module is used for the Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of flow after being merged.
A kind of 5. flood damage monitoring warning device of multiple resource fusion as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the production
Product are shown includes product display sub-module and early warning issue submodule with early warning release module.
6. a kind of flood damage monitoring and pre-alarming method of multiple resource fusion, it is characterised in that this method comprises the following steps：
1) hydrology fact module reads data of monitoring point and monitored；
2) weather forecast module reads input data and parameter, carries out Meteorological Models forecast；
3) data of monitoring point that traffic forecast module provides according to Meteorological Models forecast and hydrology fact module, it is pre- to carry out flow
Report；
4) Radar module reads radar master data and carries out pinch-reflex ion diode and extrapolated with optical flow method；
5) information and the output of Fusion Module fusion traffic forecast module and Radar module are forecast；
6) product shows that completing product with early warning release module shows and early warning issue；
In step 1), the hydrology fact module is by the read-write operation to acquisition database, to the regimen in acquisition database
Information and rain information data carry out decoding and shown, are reported automatically when the warning line of real time water level or rainfall beyond setting
It is alert；
In step 2), the initial fields and boundary condition of the input data and parameter as weather forecast module, including GFS are meteorological
Forecast the local synoptic data that the GFS Grid datas of submodule offer and real-time weather submodule provide；10 points during daily Beijing
With 16 points it is timing automatic download input datas and parameter, and Forecast Mode parameter, the Forecast Mode are configured after download
Parameter choose 15km and 5km two layers is nested, and vertical resolution is 27 layers, and top layer air pressure is 50hPa, and time of integration step-length is
60s, as a result to export per hour once；Obtain precipitation forecast value；
In step 3), the precipitation forecast value in traffic forecast module extraction weather forecast module, using arithmetic mean method or
Thiessen polygon method calculates the areal rainfall of precipitation, if the forecasting runoff of precipitation reaches concern basin warning line flow
75%, judge that the basin reaches the Weather Risk value that flood occurs, output flow predicted value；
In step 4), the Radar module is appointed according to the plan target time set in advance according to plan set in advance
It is engaged in the time, real time radar message sub-module active obtaining meteorological data file, and meteorological data document classification is stored in system
In memory block；And base data decoding, the execution of optical flow method extrapolation algorithm are carried out, the following 0-2 hours in output concern basin
Radar extrapolation precipitation value；
In step 5), forecast Fusion Module according to weight distribution parameter set in advance, determines radar extrapolation precipitation value first
Weight coefficient, then read step 3) the middle traffic forecast value that obtains, calculated by fusion formula, generate fusion value, melted
The Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of flow after conjunction；
In step 6), the Annual distribution situation and space distribution situation of the flow drawn by step 5) carry out early warning judgement, if
Without warning information, into conventional detection state, return to step 1), carry out live detection into hydrology fact module；If there is early warning
Information, then early warning plan and scheme are called, and the issue of warning information is carried out according to the rank of early warning scheme.
A kind of 7. flood damage monitoring and pre-alarming method of multiple resource fusion as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the step
It is rapid 4) in, calculate the x of each Grid data by calculating Sobel Operator, the gradient in y directions and same by continuous two times
The data of one coordinate subtract each other obtained by time difference；The motion vector of each lattice point is solved according to the iterative equation of optical flow method, is entered
The identification extrapolation of row strong convection；When occurring strong convective weather in extrapolated concern basin, the following 0-2 in output concern basin is small
When precipitation trend be radar extrapolate precipitation value.
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