CN106679761B - The realization method and system of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area - Google Patents
The realization method and system of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of realization method and systems of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area, belong to marine environmental forecasting field, implement forecast to comprehensive water level to immediate offshore area to realize, can be improved the efficiency and precision of comprehensive water level real-time prediction.This method comprises: carrying out meteorological return, the meteorological forcing field of construction first to sea area；The return of water level ocean current is carried out based on the first meteorological forcing field, obtains water level ocean current field；Weather forecast, the meteorological forcing field of construction second are carried out to sea area；Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out based on the second meteorological forcing field, constructs remaining water level open boundaryconditions；Boundary tide prediction is carried out out based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions, generates Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；Comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to sea area based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to marine environmental forecasting technical fields, and in particular to the realization of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction of immediate offshore area
Method and system.
Background technique
The SEA LEVEL VARIATION of immediate offshore area will have a direct impact on to coastal area, especially in the extreme day such as typhoon and extratropical cyclone
High water level makes coastal area by serious disaster under gas process condition.Comprehensive water level both contained under general weather condition with
Tidal action is the normal variation of leading ocean water level, the variation also comprising storm tide water level under extreme weather conditions.According to
The requirement that country and local people's governments at all levels work to marine forecasting realizes that the real-time prediction of the comprehensive water level of immediate offshore area is pre-
It is alert, it will effectively promote coastal area and prevent and reduce natural disasters ability.
Currently, the tide water level of tide and storm tide water level are forecast respectively in immediate offshore area Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall.Tide water level is pre-
There are mainly two types of reporting methods, and one is the reconciliation forecast based on measured data, the reconciliation for obtaining actual measurement station using harmonic analysis is normal
Number, is forecast using harmonic constant, and it is higher that this forecasting procedure is based on measured data precision, but measured data is less, cannot
Carry out the forecast in big face (a wide range of sea area) for needing data more；Another kind is Numerical Prediction Method, mainly uses mathematics
The method of formula discretization is based on theoretical equation, by the parametrization and discretization of equation, according to the open boundaryconditions of input and
Primary condition, then acquires the numerical solution of equation, and this method can be used oceanographic station measured data unevenly distributed and be tested
Card, then obtains the forecast result of entire forecast fields.Storm tide Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is mainly based upon Typhoon Process or temperate zone weather mistake
Journey numerical model calculates Storm events, then Storm events value and tide prediction result is superimposed, forms storm tide water level, this
Kind method is higher to meteorological data required precision, and does not account for the interaction of Tides And Tidal Currents and storm tide.
In conclusion the forecasting procedure of currently available technology, which is primarily present, forecasts that element is single and isolated, tide tide water level
It is to separate forecast, and do not account for interaction between the two with storm tide water level, the comprehensive degree of forecast result
Not high, the influence factor considered in forecast is not comprehensive enough, and the influence of ocean current is not added, is not able to satisfy immediate offshore area to integrated water
The demand of position prediction affects the efficiency and precision of comprehensive water level real-time prediction, has some limitations.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of implementation method of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area and being
System can be improved for the comprehensive water level real-time prediction of immediate offshore area with meeting to immediate offshore area the needs of to comprehensive water level forecast
The efficiency and precision of comprehensive water level real-time prediction.
In a first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides a kind of implementation methods of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area, comprising:
Meteorological return, the meteorological forcing field of construction first are carried out to the sea area；
The return of water level ocean current is carried out to the sea area based on the first meteorological forcing field, obtains water level ocean current field；
Weather forecast, the meteorological forcing field of construction second are carried out to the sea area；
Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to the sea area based on the second meteorological forcing field, constructs remaining water level open boundaryconditions；
Boundary tide prediction is carried out out to the sea area based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions, generates Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；
Comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to the sea area based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value.
With reference to first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides the first possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein should
Method further include:
Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is exported as a result, production visualization product.
With reference to first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides second of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein right
The sea area carries out meteorological return, constructs the first meteorological forcing field, specifically:
It collects in real time and analyzes meteorological data again；
Using meteorological data construction, certain period analyzes meteorological field again in the past；
Based on the meteorological field analyzed meteorological field again and meteorologic model is utilized to simulate certain period in the past, construction first
Meteorological forcing field.
With reference to first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides the third possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein base
The return of water level ocean current is carried out to the sea area in the first meteorological forcing field, obtains water level ocean current field, specifically:
Collect the sea area tidal station measured water level data and chart data；
Ocean hydrodynamic model primary condition and open boundaryconditions are constructed based on the measured water level data；
Based on the meteorological forcing field of the primary condition, open boundaryconditions and first, simulated using ocean hydrodynamic model
Go to the water level ocean current field of certain period.
With reference to first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides the 4th kind of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein right
The sea area carries out weather forecast, constructs the second meteorological forcing field, specifically:
It collects typhoon track data and analyzes meteorological data again；
Typhoon real-time route is obtained using typhoon track data；
Using meteorological data construction, certain period analyzes meteorological field again in the past；
Based on typhoon real-time route, meteorological field construction primary condition and boundary condition are analyzed again；
The meteorological field of following certain period is forecast using meteorologic model, output weather forecast is as a result, construction second is meteorological strong
Compel field.
With reference to first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides the 5th kind of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein base
Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to the sea area in the second meteorological forcing field, constructs remaining water level open boundaryconditions, specifically,
Collect the sea area chart data；
Based on the second meteorological forcing field, in conjunction with chart data, using ocean hydrodynamic model simulation following certain period
Residual water level field exports prediction result；
Remaining water level open boundaryconditions are constructed based on prediction result.
With reference to first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides the 6th kind of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein base
Boundary tide prediction is carried out out to the sea area in remaining water level open boundaryconditions, specifically,
Collect the sea area tidal station measured water level data；
Based on the measured water level material computation boundary net point harmonic constant of tide；
The tidal level value of boundary net point following certain period is opened based on harmonic constant of tide forecast；
The tidal level value and remaining water level open boundaryconditions are superimposed, generates and opens certain period in future described in boundary net point
Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value.
With reference to first aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides the 7th kind of possible embodiments of first aspect, wherein base
Comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to the sea area in water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value, specifically,
Primary condition is constructed based on water level ocean current field；
Open boundaryconditions are constructed based on Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；
Based on the second meteorological meteorological forced condition of forcing field construction；
Based on the primary condition, open boundaryconditions and meteorological forced condition, ocean hydrodynamic model real-time prediction is utilized
Water level, the ocean current of the following certain period, the synthesis water level real-time prediction result in (offshore) sea area described in acquisition.
Second aspect, the embodiment of the present invention also provide a kind of realization system of comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area, comprising:
Meteorological back-reporting module, for carrying out meteorological return, the meteorological forcing field of construction first to the sea area；
Water level ocean current back-reporting module is obtained for carrying out the return of water level ocean current to the sea area based on the first meteorological forcing field
Obtain water level ocean current field；
Weather forecast module, for carrying out weather forecast, the meteorological forcing field of construction second to the sea area；
Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall module, for carrying out remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall to the sea area based on the second meteorological forcing field, more than construction
Water level open boundaryconditions；
Boundary tide prediction module is opened, it is pre- for carrying out out boundary tidal level to the sea area based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions
Report generates Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；
Comprehensive water level forecast module, for being based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value to the sea
Domain carries out comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall.
In conjunction with second aspect, the embodiment of the invention provides the first possible embodiments of second aspect, wherein should
System further includes production module, for exporting Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall as a result, production visualization product.
The embodiment of the present invention bring it is following the utility model has the advantages that
In the implementation method of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area provided in an embodiment of the present invention, sea area is carried out first meteorological
Return, the meteorological forcing field of construction first carry out the return of water level ocean current to sea area based on the first meteorological forcing field, obtain water level ocean current
?；Then weather forecast is carried out to sea area, the meteorological forcing field of construction second carries out the sea area based on the second meteorological forcing field
Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall constructs remaining water level open boundaryconditions, carries out out boundary tidal level to the sea area based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions
Forecast generates Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；Then based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value to the sea area into
The comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall of row, finally exports visualization result.By utilizing observation in real time and analyzing ocean and meteorological data again, right
On the basis of certain period in past (such as 96 hours in the past) is returned, (such as typhoon mistake especially under hazard weather background
Journey and extratropical cyclone process etc.), realize that the synthesis water level to following certain period (such as 36 hours following) carries out real-time prediction.
This method fully takes into account a variety of weather background conditions and influence factor, is capable of providing real-time, comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall as a result, tool
There is stronger practicability.In addition, it also have the advantage that
1, the meteorological elements such as extreme weather element and wind, air pressure be joined in the forecasting process of comprehensive water level forecasting procedure,
Make up the deficiency of single Element forecast.
2, using real-time ocean observation station real-time observed data, typhoon real time data and again real time meteorological data is analyzed as base
Plinth, building forcing field, initial fields and boundary condition drive comprehensive Water Level Forecasting Model, have reached real-time prediction effect.
3, the water level forecast under the extreme weather conditions such as the water level forecast under general weather condition and typhoon, extratropical cyclone can
To complete in methodology and system, the problem of individually forecasting to a variety of water levels is avoided, realizes the forecast of comprehensive water level.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will illustrate in the following description, also, partly become from specification
It obtains it is clear that understand through the implementation of the invention.The objectives and other advantages of the invention are in specification, claims
And specifically noted structure is achieved and obtained in attached drawing.
To enable the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention to be clearer and more comprehensible, preferred embodiment is cited below particularly, and cooperate
Appended attached drawing, is described in detail below.
Detailed description of the invention
It, below will be to specific in order to illustrate more clearly of the specific embodiment of the invention or technical solution in the prior art
Embodiment or attached drawing needed to be used in the description of the prior art be briefly described, it should be apparent that, it is described below
Attached drawing is some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, before not making the creative labor
It puts, is also possible to obtain other drawings based on these drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the implementation method for the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area that the embodiment of the present invention one provides；
Fig. 2 is the detail flowchart of the implementation method for the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area that the embodiment of the present invention one provides；
Fig. 3 is the specific flow chart of S1 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 4 is the specific flow chart of S2 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 5 is the specific flow chart of S3 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 6 is the specific flow chart of S4 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 7 is the specific flow chart of S5 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 8 is the specific flow chart of S6 in Fig. 1；
Fig. 9 is the structural schematic diagram of the realization system of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area provided by Embodiment 2 of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
In order to make the object, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiment of the invention clearer, below in conjunction with attached drawing to the present invention
Technical solution be clearly and completely described, it is clear that described embodiments are some of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than
Whole embodiments.Based on the embodiments of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are not making creative work premise
Under every other embodiment obtained, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Embodiment one:
As depicted in figs. 1 and 2, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of implementation method of comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area, uses
In the comprehensive water level real-time prediction of immediate offshore area, comprising the following steps:
S1: meteorological return, the meteorological forcing field of construction first are carried out to sea area；
Specifically, referring to Fig. 3, including it is following step by step:
S11: it collects in real time and analyzes meteorological data again；
Meteorological data includes typhoon track, central pressure, center wind speed, temperature, air pressure when extratropical cyclone occurs, wet
Degree, wind speed, wind direction etc.
S12: certain period analyzes meteorological field to utilizing meteorological date construction again in the past；
Certain period analyzes meteorological field, utilizing meteorological date of embodiment of the present invention construction to utilizing meteorological date construction again in the past
Meteorological field was analyzed again past 96 hours.
S13: based on meteorological field is analyzed again using the meteorological field of certain period in meteorologic model simulation past, construction first is meteorological
Forcing field.
Based on the past 96 hours gas for analyzing return pattern simulation in the past 96 hour of the meteorological field using meteorologic model again
Image field (including wind field, such as wind speed, wind direction and field of pressure etc.), the meteorological forcing field of construction first.First meteorological forcing field is used
In for sea area carry out the return of water level ocean current in ocean hydrodynamic model provide mode meteorology force condition.
It should be noted that meteorologic model (including return pattern and Forecast Mode) mainly uses Study of Meso Scale Weather process mould
Type and Typhoon Wind Field and field of pressure model, under normal circumstances or weather system control in temperate zone is lower using Study of Meso Scale Weather process simulation
Mode, typhoon then use Typhoon Wind Field and field of pressure model when occurring.
Study of Meso Scale Weather process model selects the more mature meteorological Numerical Prediction Models such as MM5, WRF, to analyze money again
Material is used as ambient field, and is modified using Through observation data in situ to ambient field.
Typhoon Wind Field and field of pressure model need to be arranged typhoon domain Wind Field and field of pressure grid and typhoon fluid inlet angle, platform
The parameters such as wind path diameter, maximum wind speed radius, center of typhoon air pressure, nearly center maximum wind velocity, Typhoon Tracks speed, these parameters by
The optimal typhoon track data that Chinese typhoon net is announced obtains.
S2: the return of water level ocean current is carried out to sea area based on the first meteorological forcing field, obtains water level ocean current field；
Specifically, referring to Fig. 4, including it is following step by step:
S21: sea area tidal station measured water level data and chart data are collected；
S22: based on measured water level data building ocean hydrodynamic model primary condition and open boundaryconditions；
S23: it based on the meteorological forcing field of primary condition, open boundaryconditions and first, was simulated using ocean hydrodynamic model
Go to the water level ocean current field of certain period.
Past 96 hour water level prediction of the embodiment of the present invention based on collection (as primary condition and open boundaryconditions)
With chart data (as the mode depth of water) and the first meteorological forcing field, utilize the simulation of ocean hydrodynamic model 96 hours in the past
Water level ocean current field.
Water level ocean current field is used for integrate Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall and providing primary condition, in specific implementation, using the last one hour
Primary condition of the water level ocean current field as comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall.
It should be noted that ocean hydrodynamic model (including return pattern and Forecast Mode) select POM, FVCOM etc. compared with
For mature ocean numerical models, mode computation: the mode depth of water is made using the chart data collected by the measured water level of tidal station
It is calculated to open boundary drive mode, it is the first meteorological forcing field that mode meteorology, which forces condition, by the meteorological field of meteorological return building
Wind field (wind speed, wind direction) and field of pressure are provided.
S3: weather forecast, the meteorological forcing field of construction second are carried out to sea area；
Specifically, referring to Fig. 5, including it is following step by step:
S31: collecting typhoon track data and analyzes meteorological data again；
Meteorological data includes typhoon track, central pressure, center wind speed, temperature, air pressure when extratropical cyclone occurs, wet
Degree, wind speed, wind direction etc..
S32: typhoon real-time route is obtained using typhoon track data；
Typhoon track data includes typhoon domain Wind Field and field of pressure grid and typhoon fluid inlet angle, typhoon track, maximum
The parameters such as wind speed radius, center of typhoon air pressure, nearly center maximum wind velocity, Typhoon Tracks speed, these parameters are by Chinese typhoon net
The optimal typhoon track data announced obtains.
S33: certain period analyzes meteorological field to utilizing meteorological date construction again in the past；
The embodiment of the present invention analyzes meteorological field in 96 hours in the past using the past 96 hours meteorological data constructions again.
S34: based on typhoon real-time route, meteorological field construction primary condition and boundary condition are analyzed again；
S35: forecasting the meteorological field of following certain period using meteorologic model, and output weather forecast is as a result, the second gas of construction
As forcing field.
The embodiment of the present invention forecasts following 36 hours meteorological fields using the Forecast Mode of meteorologic model, exports weather forecast
As a result, the meteorological forcing field of construction second.The meteorological field (including wind field, such as wind speed, wind direction and field of pressure etc.) of forecast, structure
The meteorological forcing field of second made provides meteorological forcing field for remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall and provides meteorological forcing field for comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall.
Weather forecast result is mainly mesh point wind direction, wind speed and air pressure in following 36 hours；
Forecast result is interpolated on remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall grid, is then not necessarily to interpolation if typhoon situation, it can be pre- for remaining water level
Report provides meteorological forcing field；
Forecast result is interpolated on Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall grid, is then not necessarily to interpolation if typhoon situation, it can be pre- for comprehensive water level
Report provides meteorological forcing field.
The Forecast Mode of meteorologic model is also mainly using Study of Meso Scale Weather process model and Typhoon Wind Field and field of pressure mould
Type, under normal circumstances or weather system control in temperate zone is lower using Study of Meso Scale Weather process simulation mode, and typhoon then uses when occurring
Typhoon Wind Field and field of pressure model.
Study of Meso Scale Weather process model selects the more mature meteorological Numerical Prediction Models of MM5, WRF etc., to analyze again
Data is modified ambient field as ambient field, and using Through observation data in situ.
Typhoon Wind Field and field of pressure model need to be arranged typhoon domain Wind Field and field of pressure grid and typhoon fluid inlet angle, platform
The parameters such as wind path diameter, maximum wind speed radius, center of typhoon air pressure, nearly center maximum wind velocity, Typhoon Tracks speed, these parameters by
The optimal typhoon track data that Chinese typhoon net is announced obtains.
S4: remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to sea area based on the second meteorological forcing field, constructs remaining water level open boundaryconditions；
Specifically, referring to Fig. 6, including it is following step by step:
S41: sea area chart data is collected；
S42: based on the second meteorological forcing field, in conjunction with chart data, using one timing of ocean hydrodynamic model simulation future
The residual water level field of section exports prediction result；
The embodiment of the present invention provides mode using the second meteorological forcing field that weather forecast is simulated for ocean hydrodynamic model
The forced condition of meteorology, the mode depth of water in conjunction with chart data as ocean hydrodynamic model are simulated using ocean hydrodynamic model
Following 36 hours residual water level fields export prediction result；
S43: remaining water level open boundaryconditions are constructed based on prediction result.
Prediction result is interpolated into Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall grid and opens boundary, provides open boundaryconditions to open boundary tide prediction,
It should be noted that water level ocean current forecast grid and comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall grid are same grids, it is pre- that it is unified into water level here
Report grid.
It should be noted that ocean hydrodynamic model selects the more mature ocean numerical value such as POM, FVCOM in this step
Forecast Mode, the mode depth of water use chart data, and mode primary condition uses zero initial condition, and it is that mode meteorology, which forces condition,
The wind field (wind speed, wind direction) and field of pressure that two meteorological forcing fields provide.
S5: boundary tide prediction is carried out out to the sea area based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions, generates Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；
Specifically, referring to Fig. 7, including it is following step by step:
S51: sea area tidal station measured water level data is collected；
S52: it is based on the measured water level material computation boundary net point harmonic constant of tide；
The boundary net point harmonic constant of tide is calculated using harmonic analysis based on tidal station measured water level.
S53: the tidal level value of boundary net point following certain period is opened based on harmonic constant of tide forecast；
The embodiment of the present invention opens following 36 hours tidal level values of boundary net point based on obtained harmonic constant of tide forecast.
S54: tidal level value and remaining water level open boundaryconditions are superimposed, and generate the water level for opening boundary net point following certain period
Predicted value.
Tidal level value and remaining water level open boundaryconditions are superimposed by the embodiment of the present invention, and it is 36 hours following that boundary net point is opened in generation
Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value be used for for integrate Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall open boundaryconditions are provided.
S6: comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to sea area based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value.
Specifically, referring to Fig. 8, including it is following step by step:
S61: primary condition is constructed based on water level ocean current field；
S62: open boundaryconditions are constructed based on Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；
S63: based on the second meteorological meteorological forced condition of forcing field construction；
S64: based on primary condition, open boundaryconditions and meteorological forced condition, ocean hydrodynamic model real-time prediction is utilized
Water level, the ocean current of following certain period, obtains the synthesis water level real-time prediction result in sea area.
In this step, ocean hydrodynamic model selects the more mature Marine Numerical Prediction mode of POM, FVCOM etc., mould
The chart data that the formula depth of water uses is it is known that mode computation: opening boundary by the harmonic constant of tide of tidal station and forecasts tidal level and Yu Shui
Position calculated result (prediction result) provides jointly opens the driving of boundary water level, that is to say, that is used as by Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value and opens boundary water
Position drive mode calculates, and mode primary condition is provided by the water level ocean current field that the return of water level ocean current obtains, and mode meteorology forces item
Part provides wind speed, wind direction and air pressure by the second meteorological forcing field, is based on above-mentioned condition, forecasts future using ocean hydrodynamic model
36 hours water levels, ocean current, obtain the synthesis water level real-time prediction result in sea area.
S7: output Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is as a result, production visualization product.
Specifically, the synthesis water level forecast result of acquisition is processed into visualization product, such as it can be fabricated to and singly stand
Journey curve graph and typical time water level, flow field figure etc..
In the implementation method of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area provided in an embodiment of the present invention, divide using real-time observation and again
Ocean and meteorological data are analysed, on the basis of returning certain period in past (such as 96 hours in the past), especially in calamity
Under evil weather background (such as Typhoon Process and extratropical cyclone process), realize to following certain period (such as 36 hours following)
Comprehensive water level carries out real-time prediction.This method fully takes into account a variety of weather background conditions and influence factor, be capable of providing in real time,
Comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is as a result, have stronger practicability.Specifically, the invention has the following advantages that
1, the building of comprehensive water level forecasting procedure combines storm tide, tide and flow field forecast, joined in forecasting process
The meteorological elements such as extreme weather element and wind, air pressure, make up the deficiency of single Element forecast.
2, using real-time ocean observation station real-time observed data, typhoon real time data and again real time meteorological data is analyzed as base
Plinth, building forcing field, initial fields and boundary condition drive comprehensive Water Level Forecasting Model, have reached real-time prediction effect.
3, the water level forecast under the extreme weather conditions such as the water level forecast under general weather condition and typhoon, extratropical cyclone can
To complete in methodology and system, the problem of individually forecasting to a variety of water levels is avoided, realizes the forecast of comprehensive water level.
Embodiment two:
As shown in figure 9, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of realization system of comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area, including
Meteorological back-reporting module 1, weather forecast module 3, remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall module 4, opens boundary tide prediction at water level ocean current back-reporting module 2
Module 5 and comprehensive water level forecast module 6.
Meteorological back-reporting module 1, for carrying out meteorological return to sea area, the meteorological forcing field of construction first is specifically included following
Several aspects:
It collects in real time and analyzes meteorological data again；
Certain period analyzes meteorological field to utilizing meteorological date construction again in the past；
Based on meteorological field is analyzed again using the meteorological field of certain period in meteorologic model simulation past, construction first is meteorological to be forced
?.
Water level ocean current back-reporting module 2 obtains water for carrying out the return of water level ocean current to sea area based on the first meteorological forcing field
Position ocean current field, specifically includes the following aspects:
Collect sea area tidal station measured water level data and chart data；
Ocean hydrodynamic model primary condition and open boundaryconditions are constructed based on measured water level data；
Based on the meteorological forcing field of primary condition, open boundaryconditions and first, the ocean hydrodynamic model simulation past one is utilized
The water level ocean current field of timing section.
Weather forecast module 3, for carrying out weather forecast to sea area, the meteorological forcing field of construction second is specifically included following
Several aspects:
It collects typhoon track data and analyzes meteorological data again；
Typhoon real-time route is obtained using typhoon track data；
Certain period analyzes meteorological field to utilizing meteorological date construction again in the past；
Based on typhoon real-time route, meteorological field construction primary condition and boundary condition are analyzed again；
The meteorological field of following certain period is forecast using meteorologic model, output weather forecast is as a result, construction second is meteorological strong
Compel field.
Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall module 4 constructs remaining water level for carrying out remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall to sea area based on the second meteorological forcing field
Open boundaryconditions specifically include the following aspects:
Collect sea area chart data；
Based on the second meteorological forcing field, in conjunction with chart data, using ocean hydrodynamic model simulation following certain period
Residual water level field exports prediction result；
Remaining water level open boundaryconditions are constructed based on prediction result.
Boundary tide prediction module 5 is opened, for carrying out out boundary tide prediction to sea area based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions,
Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value is generated, the following aspects is specifically included:
Collect sea area tidal station measured water level data；
Based on the measured water level material computation boundary net point harmonic constant of tide；
The tidal level value of boundary net point following certain period is opened based on harmonic constant of tide forecast.
Comprehensive water level forecast module 6, for being based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value to sea area
Comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out, the following aspects is specifically included:
Primary condition is constructed based on water level ocean current field；
Open boundaryconditions are constructed based on Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；
Based on the second meteorological meteorological forced condition of forcing field construction；
Based on primary condition, open boundaryconditions and meteorological forced condition, ocean hydrodynamic model real-time prediction future is utilized
Water level, the ocean current of certain period, obtains the synthesis water level real-time prediction result in sea area.
As a preferred embodiment, the realization system of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area provided in an embodiment of the present invention is also wrapped
Production module 7 is included, for exporting Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall as a result, production visualization product.Specifically, making module 7 for the synthesis of acquisition
Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall result treatment is at visualization product, such as can be fabricated to single station conditional curve figure and typical time water level, flow field
Figure etc..
Above system when in use, certain period in past as mentioned in the embodiments of the present invention, it is preferred that the past 96 is small
When, following certain period, it is preferred that 36 hours following.
The realization system of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area provided in an embodiment of the present invention, with sea provided by the above embodiment
The implementation method technical characteristic having the same of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in domain reaches so also can solve identical technical problem
To identical technical effect.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the system of foregoing description
Specific work process, can refer to corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiment, details are not described herein.
It, can be with if the function is realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and when sold or used as an independent product
It is stored in a computer readable storage medium.Based on this understanding, technical solution of the present invention is substantially in other words
The part of the part that contributes to existing technology or the technical solution can be embodied in the form of software products, the meter
Calculation machine software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are used so that a computer equipment (can be a
People's computer, server or network equipment etc.) it performs all or part of the steps of the method described in the various embodiments of the present invention.
And storage medium above-mentioned includes: that USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), arbitrary access are deposited
The various media that can store program code such as reservoir (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic or disk.
Finally, it should be noted that embodiment described above, only a specific embodiment of the invention, to illustrate the present invention
Technical solution, rather than its limitations, scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto, although with reference to the foregoing embodiments to this hair
It is bright to be described in detail, those skilled in the art should understand that: anyone skilled in the art
In the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, it can still modify to technical solution documented by previous embodiment or can be light
It is readily conceivable that variation or equivalent replacement of some of the technical features；And these modifications, variation or replacement, do not make
The essence of corresponding technical solution is detached from the spirit and scope of technical solution of the embodiment of the present invention, should all cover in protection of the invention
Within the scope of.Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Claims (4)
1. the implementation method of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in a kind of sea area, for the comprehensive water level real-time prediction of immediate offshore area, feature
It is, comprising:
Meteorological return, the meteorological forcing field of construction first are carried out to the sea area；It is described that meteorological return, construction are carried out to the sea area
The step of first meteorological forcing field, including it is following step by step: collect in real time and analyze meteorological data again；Utilize the meteorological data
Certain period analyzes meteorological field to construction again in the past；Utilize the meteorologic model simulation past certain based on the meteorological field of analyzing again
The meteorological field of period, the meteorological forcing field of construction first；
The return of water level ocean current is carried out to the sea area based on the first meteorological forcing field, obtains water level ocean current field；It is described to be based on first
Meteorological forcing field to the sea area carry out the return of water level ocean current, obtain water level ocean current field the step of, including it is following step by step: collect
The sea area tidal station measured water level data and chart data；At the beginning of constructing ocean hydrodynamic model based on the measured water level data
Beginning condition and open boundaryconditions；Based on the meteorological forcing field of the primary condition, open boundaryconditions and first, ocean hydrodynamic force is utilized
Modeling goes over the water level ocean current field of certain period；
Weather forecast, the meteorological forcing field of construction second are carried out to the sea area；It is described that weather forecast, construction are carried out to the sea area
The step of second meteorological forcing field, including it is following step by step: collect typhoon track data and analyze meteorological data again；Utilize typhoon
Path data obtains typhoon real-time route；Using meteorological data construction, certain period analyzes meteorological field again in the past；Based on platform
Wind real-time route analyzes meteorological field construction primary condition and boundary condition again；Following certain period is forecast using meteorologic model
Meteorological field, output weather forecast is as a result, the meteorological forcing field of construction second；
Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to the sea area based on the second meteorological forcing field, constructs remaining water level open boundaryconditions；It is described to be based on
The step of second meteorological forcing field carries out remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall, constructs remaining water level open boundaryconditions to the sea area, including following point
Step: the sea area chart data is collected；Based on the second meteorological forcing field, in conjunction with chart data, using ocean hydrodynamic model
The residual water level field of simulation following certain period, exports prediction result；Remaining water level open boundaryconditions are constructed based on prediction result；
Boundary tide prediction is carried out out to the sea area based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions, generates Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；It is described to be based on
The step of remaining water level open boundaryconditions carry out out boundary tide prediction to the sea area, generate Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value, including following point
Step: the sea area tidal station measured water level data is collected；Based on the measured water level material computation boundary net point tide tune
And constant；The tidal level value of boundary net point following certain period is opened based on harmonic constant of tide forecast；By the tidal level value
It is superimposed with remaining water level open boundaryconditions, generates the Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value for opening boundary net point following certain period；
Base described in comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is carried out to the sea area based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value
In the step of water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value carry out comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall to the sea area, including with
Lower sub-step: primary condition is constructed based on water level ocean current field；Open boundaryconditions are constructed based on Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value；Based on the second meteorology
The meteorological forced condition of forcing field construction；Based on the primary condition, open boundaryconditions and meteorological forced condition, ocean hydrodynamic(al) is utilized
Water level, the ocean current of power model real-time prediction following certain period, obtains the synthesis water level real-time prediction result in the sea area.
2. the method according to claim 1, wherein further include:
Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall is exported as a result, production visualization product.
3. a kind of realization system of the comprehensive water level real-time prediction in sea area characterized by comprising
Meteorological back-reporting module, for carrying out meteorological return to the sea area, the meteorological forcing field of construction first is specifically included following several
A aspect: it collects in real time and analyzes meteorological data again；Certain period analyzes meteorological field to utilizing meteorological date construction again in the past；It is based on
Meteorological field is analyzed again using the meteorological field of certain period in meteorologic model simulation past, the meteorological forcing field of construction first；
Water level ocean current back-reporting module obtains water for carrying out the return of water level ocean current to the sea area based on the first meteorological forcing field
Position ocean current field, specifically includes the following aspects: collecting sea area tidal station measured water level data and chart data；Based on actual measurement water
Position data building ocean hydrodynamic model primary condition and open boundaryconditions；Based on primary condition, open boundaryconditions and the first gas
As forcing field, the water level ocean current field of certain period in ocean hydrodynamic model simulation past is utilized；
Weather forecast module, for carrying out weather forecast to the sea area, the meteorological forcing field of construction second is specifically included following several
A aspect: collecting typhoon track data and analyzes meteorological data again；Typhoon real-time route is obtained using typhoon track data；It utilizes
Certain period analyzes meteorological field to meteorological data construction again in the past；Based on typhoon real-time route, meteorological field construction initial strip is analyzed again
Part and boundary condition；The meteorological field of following certain period is forecast using meteorologic model, output weather forecast is as a result, the second gas of construction
As forcing field；
Remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall module constructs remaining water level for carrying out remaining Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall to the sea area based on the second meteorological forcing field
Open boundaryconditions specifically include the following aspects: collecting sea area chart data；Based on the second meteorological forcing field, in conjunction with sea chart
Data exports prediction result using the residual water level field of ocean hydrodynamic model simulation following certain period；Based on prediction result structure
Make remaining water level open boundaryconditions；
Boundary tide prediction module is opened, for carrying out out boundary tide prediction to the sea area based on remaining water level open boundaryconditions,
Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value is generated, the following aspects is specifically included: collecting sea area tidal station measured water level data；It is provided based on measured water level
Material calculates the boundary net point harmonic constant of tide；The tide of boundary net point following certain period is opened based on harmonic constant of tide forecast
Place value；
Comprehensive water level forecast module, for based on water level ocean current field, the second meteorological forcing field, Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value to the sea area into
The comprehensive Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall of row, specifically includes the following aspects: constructing primary condition based on water level ocean current field；Based on Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall value
Construct open boundaryconditions；Based on the second meteorological meteorological forced condition of forcing field construction；It is gentle based on primary condition, open boundaryconditions
As forcing condition, using water level, the ocean current of ocean hydrodynamic model real-time prediction following certain period, the integrated water in sea area is obtained
Position real-time prediction result.
4. system according to claim 3, which is characterized in that further include production module, for exporting Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall as a result,
Production visualization product.
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