CN105653764A - Method for online estimating and pre-warning grid safety accident risk levels - Google Patents
Method for online estimating and pre-warning grid safety accident risk levels Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for online estimating and pre-warning the grid safety accident risk levels, and belongs to the technical field of power system automation. The method comprises the following steps: on the basis of a grid current operation manner provided by an EMS and a control strategy of a second defensive line and a third defensive line, calculating and simulating the action of a control device of the second and third defensive lines through time-domain simulation in allusion to a preconceived fault set of assessments of the second and third defensive lines, so as to obtain a total fault load reduction quantity, a loss user quantity and a voltage loss station quantity; dividing the grid safety accident risk levels of the preconceived faults according to the requirements of ''Regulations on the Emergency Response to and Investigation and Handling of Electric Power Safety Accidents '' and ''Rules for the Investigation of Electric Power Accidents of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited''; and determining the important levels of the faulted equipment according to the accident risk levels. According to the method, the online estimation and pre-warning of the grid safety accident risk levels are realized, a technological foundation is laid for the real-time pre-warning and pre-control of the grid safety accidents.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power system automation technology field, specifically the present invention relates to a kind of power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation and method for early warning.
Background technology
Along with expanding economy, China's network load total amount increases year by year. The safety and stability problem that important electric load is concentrated, electrical network electrical link is tight, alternating current-direct current be result in electrical network potential by characteristics such as electricity on a large scale increases, and adds the risk that serious power outage occurs. Accident is once occur, it will cause serious economic loss and social influence. The degree that State Council 599 command " electric power safety accident emergency is disposed and regulations of investigating " (hereinafter referred to as " regulations ") is run according to electric power safety accident impact power system safety and stability, accident is divided into special major accident, major accident, relatively major break down and ordinary accident, and formulated electrical network load shedding ratio respectively according to network load rank and regionality, user has a power failure ratio and accident rank criterion; Accident event is also divided into five grades by south power grid accident incident investigation code (hereinafter referred to as " code ") in " China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident incident investigation code ", and defines the user corresponding to event at different levels and lose number and decompression plant stand number.
Means currently for power grid security accident risk level evaluation many employings off-line analysis of above " regulations " and " code ", calculating data cannot representative system practical operation situation, analytical calculation efficiency is low, lies substantially in statistical analysis afterwards, it is impossible to realize the early warning to power grid security accident. Therefore, in the urgent need to power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation technology, it is achieved early warning and the pre-control to security incident.
Summary of the invention
The present invention seeks to: can only off-line analysis, the mode afterwards added up for existing power grid security accident risk level evaluation, a kind of power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation method is provided, the method is based on powernet data and forecast failure, and solving existing power grid security accident risk level evaluation technology cannot for the problem of severe safety accident on-line early warning.
Specifically, the present invention realizes by the following technical solutions, comprises the following steps:
1) data acquisition is calculated: the control strategy based on the EMS currently running mode of electrical network, element static dynamic model parameters and second and third defence line, road provided forms calculating data, second defence line and three lines of defence are examined fault set as forecast failure collection, and Safety system is according to the action situation of security control device after forecast failure under the control strategy currently running mode of acquisition;
2) simulation calculation of forecast failure: the time-domain-simulation carrying out forecast failure according to the calculating data obtained calculates, simulation calculation is taken into account the feedback-type security control device action of second defence line, three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device action and grid disconnection device action, and obtains, by the method for topological analysis, the system sectionalizing situation that fault directly results in;
3) load loss result statistical analysis: on the simulation result basis of forecast failure, load loss amount and the corresponding load equipment that fault directly results in is added up according to the system sectionalizing situation that fault directly results in, action situation according to security control device adds up corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment, adds up corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment according to the action situation of three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device and grid disconnection device; Then plant stand belonging to load loss amount, loss load equipment and equipment, calculates in the electrical network that pre-sets owing to electric power safety accident causes electrical network to subtract the decompression plant stand number of have a power failure for load proportion, power supply user ratio and difference electric pressure;
4) conversion of security incident risk class and early warning: plant stand belonging to loss load equipment and equipment, the network load rank specified according to State Council 599 command " electric power safety accident emergency is disposed and regulations of investigating " and " China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident incident investigation code " and regional acquisition threshold value, to subtract for load proportion, the power supply user threshold value that ratio and decompression plant stand number and State Council 599 command " electric power safety accident emergency is disposed and regulations of investigating " and " China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident incident investigation code " specify that has a power failure compares, determine security incident grade, and the important level of faulty equipment is determined according to security incident event class, travel through all forecast failures, forecast failure and faulty equipment thereof that accident risk grade is unsatisfactory for requirement export and provide alarm.
Technique scheme be further characterized by described step 3) in, when system sectionalizing that fault directly results in and three lines of defence disconnection device cause system sectionalizing, generation load before statistics sub-island fault, if exist in sub-island without electromotor, sub-island generating do not reach generating total amount threshold and sub-island load do not reach a kind of situation in load total amount threshold, then think that sub-island is unsatisfactory for service condition, claiming this sub-island is dangerous sub-island, and is counted on by dangerous sub-island load in fault mistake load total amount.
Technique scheme be further characterized by described step 3) in, calculate according to equation below and subtract for load proportion:
Wherein, p is for subtracting for load proportion, ltMistake load total amount, l is directly caused for faultcFor cutting load total amount after fault, lallFor system total load amount before fault, above load statistic is all for inside the electrical network scope pre-set.
Technique scheme be further characterized by described step 3) in, lose load equipment the user profile obtaining correspondence, statistics loss number of users from forecast failure, calculate power supply user and have a power failure ratio.
Beneficial effects of the present invention is as follows: the present invention is based on the control strategy of the EMS currently running mode of the electrical network provided He second and third defence line, road, forecast failure collection for the examination of second and third defence line, road, calculated and simulate the anti-line traffic control device action in second and third road by time-domain-simulation, obtain fault and subtract for load total amount, loss number of users and decompression plant stand number, and the power grid security accident risk grade of the requirement division forecast failure according to " regulations " and " code ", online evaluation and early warning for power grid security accident risk grade have established technical foundation.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
Also with reference to accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with embodiment.
Embodiment 1:
One embodiment of the present of invention, its step as shown in Figure 1:
What in Fig. 1, step 1 described is the acquisition calculating data, control strategy based on the EMS currently running mode of electrical network, element static dynamic model parameters and second and third defence line, road provided forms calculating data, it is contemplated that fault set is second defence line and three lines of defence examination fault set. Wherein, Safety system is according to security control device action situation after forecast failure under the control strategy currently running mode of acquisition.
In Fig. 1, what step 2 described is the simulation calculation of forecast failure, namely carries out the time-domain-simulation calculating of forecast failure according to the calculating data obtained. Wherein, simulation calculation is taken into account the feedback-type security control device action of second defence line, three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device action and grid disconnection device action, and obtains, by the method for topological analysis, the system sectionalizing situation that fault directly results in.
What in Fig. 1, step 3 described is load loss result statistical analysis, namely on the simulation result basis of forecast failure, adds up, according to the system sectionalizing situation that fault directly results in, load loss amount and the corresponding load equipment that fault directly results in; Action situation according to security control device adds up corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment; Action situation according to three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device and grid disconnection device adds up corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment; Plant stand belonging to load loss amount, loss load equipment and equipment, calculates in the electrical network that pre-sets owing to electric power safety accident causes electrical network to subtract the decompression plant stand number of have a power failure for load proportion, power supply user ratio and difference electric pressure;
When fault directly results in system sectionalizing and three lines of defence disconnection device causes system sectionalizing, load loss amount statistical method is as follows: generation load before statistics sub-island fault, if exist in sub-island without electromotor, sub-island generating do not reach generating total amount threshold and sub-island load do not reach a kind of situation in load total amount threshold, then think that sub-island is unsatisfactory for service condition, claiming this sub-island is dangerous sub-island, and is counted on by dangerous sub-island load in fault mistake load total amount.
Subtract the computational methods for load proportion as follows:
Wherein, p is for subtracting for load proportion, ltMistake load total amount, l is directly caused for faultcFor cutting load total amount after fault, lallFor system total load amount before fault, above load statistic is all for inside the electrical network scope pre-set.
The have a power failure statistical method of ratio and decompression plant stand number of power supply user is as follows:
Lose load equipment the user profile obtaining correspondence, statistics loss number of users from forecast failure, calculate power supply user and have a power failure ratio. If all users of certain plant stand are loss load user, then this plant stand is decompression plant stand, respectively 500kV decompression plant stand number, 220kV decompression plant stand number, 110kV decompression plant stand number, 35kV decompression plant stand number under statistics forecast failure.
What in Fig. 1, step 4 described is the conversion of security incident risk class and early warning, and namely belonging to loss load equipment and equipment, plant stand, the network load rank specified according to " regulations " and " code " and regionality obtain threshold value; Compare subtracting for load proportion, the power supply user threshold value that ratio and decompression plant stand number and " regulations " and " code " specify that has a power failure, it is determined that security incident grade, and determine the important level of faulty equipment according to security incident event class; Traveling through all forecast failures, forecast failure and faulty equipment thereof that accident risk grade is unsatisfactory for requirement export and provide alarm.
For the threshold value of " regulations " and " code " defined, belonging to loss load equipment and equipment, plant stand is according to load class and regional acquisition. If security of system after the anti-line traffic control device action in second and third road, then security of system incident classification corresponding " special major accident ", " major accident ", " relatively major break down ", " ordinary accident ", " below standard accident "; If system is still dangerous after second and third road anti-line traffic control device action, then security of system incident classification corresponding " special major accident ", " more than major accident ", " more than relatively major break down ", " more than ordinary accident " and " latent defect ".
In a word, power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation and the method for early warning control strategy based on the EMS currently running mode of the electrical network provided and second and third defence line, road, forecast failure collection for the examination of second and third defence line, road, calculated and simulate the anti-line traffic control device action in second and third road by time-domain-simulation, obtain fault and subtract for load total amount, loss number of users and decompression plant stand number, and the power grid security accident risk grade of the requirement division forecast failure according to " regulations " and " code ", technical foundation has been established in early warning and pre-control for power grid security accident.
Although the present invention is with preferred embodiment openly as above, but embodiment is not for limiting the present invention's. Without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, any equivalence done changes or retouching, also belongs to the protection domain of the present invention. Therefore the content that protection scope of the present invention should define with claims hereof is for standard.
Claims (4)
1. power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation and method for early warning, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
1) data acquisition is calculated: the control strategy based on the EMS currently running mode of electrical network, element static dynamic model parameters and second and third defence line, road provided forms calculating data, second defence line and three lines of defence are examined fault set as forecast failure collection, and Safety system is according to the action situation of security control device after forecast failure under the control strategy currently running mode of acquisition;
2) simulation calculation of forecast failure: the time-domain-simulation carrying out forecast failure according to the calculating data obtained calculates, simulation calculation is taken into account the feedback-type security control device action of second defence line, three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device action and grid disconnection device action, and obtains, by the method for topological analysis, the system sectionalizing situation that fault directly results in;
3) load loss result statistical analysis: on the simulation result basis of forecast failure, load loss amount and the corresponding load equipment that fault directly results in is added up according to the system sectionalizing situation that fault directly results in, action situation according to security control device adds up corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment, adds up corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment according to the action situation of three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device and grid disconnection device; Then plant stand belonging to load loss amount, loss load equipment and equipment, calculates in the electrical network that pre-sets owing to electric power safety accident causes electrical network to subtract the decompression plant stand number of have a power failure for load proportion, power supply user ratio and difference electric pressure;
4) conversion of security incident risk class and early warning: plant stand belonging to loss load equipment and equipment, the network load rank specified according to State Council 599 command " electric power safety accident emergency is disposed and regulations of investigating " and " China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident incident investigation code " and regional acquisition threshold value, to subtract for load proportion, the power supply user threshold value that ratio and decompression plant stand number and State Council 599 command " electric power safety accident emergency is disposed and regulations of investigating " and " China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident incident investigation code " specify that has a power failure compares, determine security incident grade, and the important level of faulty equipment is determined according to security incident event class, travel through all forecast failures, forecast failure and faulty equipment thereof that accident risk grade is unsatisfactory for requirement export and provide alarm.
2. power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation according to claim 1 and method for early warning, it is characterized in that: described step 3) in, when system sectionalizing that fault directly results in and three lines of defence disconnection device cause system sectionalizing, generation load before statistics sub-island fault, if existing in sub-island without electromotor, sub-island generating does not reach generating total amount threshold and sub-island load does not reach a kind of situation in load total amount threshold, then think that sub-island is unsatisfactory for service condition, claiming this sub-island is dangerous sub-island, and dangerous sub-island load is counted in fault mistake load total amount.
3. power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation according to claim 1 and method for early warning, it is characterised in that: described step 3) in, calculate according to equation below and subtract for load proportion:
Wherein, p is for subtracting for load proportion, ltMistake load total amount, l is directly caused for faultcFor cutting load total amount after fault, lallFor system total load amount before fault, above load statistic is all for inside the electrical network scope pre-set.
4. power grid security accident risk grade online evaluation according to claim 1 and method for early warning, it is characterized in that: described step 3) in, lose load equipment the user profile obtaining correspondence, statistics loss number of users from forecast failure, calculate power supply user and have a power failure ratio.
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| CN105447774A (en) * | 2016-01-12 | 2016-03-30 | 国网山东省电力公司青岛供电公司 | Power grid safety accident risk grade online evaluation and early warning method and apparatus |
| CN106803005A (en) * | 2017-01-20 | 2017-06-06 | 北京航空航天大学 | A kind of technological procedure risk evaluating method based on FRAM |
| CN107276075A (en) * | 2017-06-20 | 2017-10-20 | 贵州电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心 | A kind of multizone load shedding Collaborative Decision Making Method of meter and power grid accident risk class |
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| CN107977774A (en) * | 2017-11-13 | 2018-05-01 | 广东电网有限责任公司惠州供电局 | A kind of method of electrical network weak link automatic identification after failure |
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| CN109633333A (en) * | 2018-12-27 | 2019-04-16 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | All kinds of cutting load amount collision detection of provincial and above power grid and coordinate method of calibration |
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| CN110728471A (en) * | 2019-11-26 | 2020-01-24 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司 | Power grid dispatching operation safety accident grade determining method and risk index calculating method |
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| CN110348667A (en) * | 2019-05-21 | 2019-10-18 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | A kind of power grid accident grade determination method drilled through based on multi-layer data and system |
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| CN111209535B (en) * | 2019-12-25 | 2024-02-27 | 国家电网公司西北分部 | Power equipment successive fault risk identification method and system |
| CN111242802A (en) * | 2019-12-31 | 2020-06-05 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Method and device for evaluating the power supply |
| CN111475915A (en) * | 2020-03-05 | 2020-07-31 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | Successive fault online evaluation method based on fault probability and time domain simulation quasi-steady state |
| CN111475915B (en) * | 2020-03-05 | 2022-08-19 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | Successive fault online evaluation method based on fault probability and time domain simulation quasi-steady state |
| CN111929528A (en) * | 2020-06-11 | 2020-11-13 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Monitoring and early warning method for fault risk of urban power grid equipment |
| CN112001588A (en) * | 2020-07-17 | 2020-11-27 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Accident event online pre-judging method and device based on N-1 state |
| CN113078649A (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2021-07-06 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Power grid accident event grade pre-judging system and method based on sensitivity analysis and equipment fault rate |
| CN113078649B (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2021-11-16 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Power grid accident event grade pre-judging system and method based on sensitivity analysis and equipment fault rate |
| CN115097247A (en) * | 2022-07-06 | 2022-09-23 | 合肥聚智电气有限公司 | Power supply and core component failure detection, evaluation and control system |
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