CN105469189A - Secondary equipment state overhaul decision system and secondary equipment state overhaul decision method based on risk tolerance - Google Patents

Abstract

A secondary equipment state overhaul decision system and a secondary equipment state overhaul decision method based on risk tolerance analysis are provided. The method comprises the following steps: building a secondary equipment state overhaul knowledge base in a computer; performing health state evaluation and risk assessment on secondary equipment according to the state information of the secondary equipment, and associating the health state evaluation and risk assessment result with an overhaul strategy formulated in the state overhaul knowledge base; making a risk tolerance analysis of the overhaul strategy, evaluating the economical efficiency of the overhaul strategy, and guiding overhaul strategy decision; and finally, evaluating the comprehensive application effect of the overhaul strategy, and accepting/rejecting or sorting the evaluation result, wherein operation and maintenance staff can enrich and adjust the state overhaul knowledge base. According to the invention, the state overhaul knowledge base based on state evaluation is established, the link of risk tolerance analysis is added in the overhaul strategy formulating process, the link of overhaul comprehensive effect evaluation is added after the implementation of the overhaul strategy, and the state overhaul strategy knowledge base is enriched and adjusted. According to the invention, the overhaul knowledge base can be self-perfected.

Description

A kind of secondary device Decision-making of Condition-based Maintenance system and method based on risk tolerance

Technical field

The present invention relates to Operation of Electric Systems and management domain, relate in particular to a kind of electric grid secondary equipment state overhauling decision system based on risk tolerance analysis and method.

Background technology

The repair based on condition of component of secondary device is study hotspot both domestic and external, many scholars both domestic and external have carried out correlative study, at present, the thinking that electric power enterprise carries out the research of secondary device repair based on condition of component and engineer applied mainly contains two aspects: one for setting up secondary device self-inspection and health information acquisition system, effectively monitor equipment state, the result according to state analysis, diagnosis, assessment purposively arranges maintenance solution.Another thinking is carry out data mining to the non-status information on backstage, is comprehensively analyzed and state estimation, come guidance system locking equipment repair time and project by the information such as event report or the recorder data devices such as protection being delivered to station level backstage.There are the following problems for current Strategies of Maintenance formulating method:

(1) formulation of current secondary device repair based on condition of component strategy, mainly according to maintenance experience and regulatory, equipment all has prophylactic repair with or without deteriorated sign, as long as or there is defect in some information generation alarm of secondary device or equipment, will go process, and whether economical rationality is not passed judgment on to formulated Strategies of Maintenance.Thus may cause and excessively overhaul or overhaul improper, cause the loss that recondition expense produces far above equipment failure.

(2) Strategies of Maintenance knowledge base is based on maintenance regulations and producer's overhaul manual, once after formulating, substantially can not change, in equipment running process, equipment self there will be new problem or has new equipment drawing-in system, Strategies of Maintenance cannot meet new demand, does not also have the maintenance experience of consersion unit O&M technician.When formulating repair based on condition of component strategy according to the result of state estimation, may occur cannot generating Strategies of Maintenance or producing incorrect Strategies of Maintenance situation, and then affecting overhaul of the equipments efficiency.

Summary of the invention

In order to overcome above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention proposes a kind of secondary device Decision-making of Condition-based Maintenance system and method based on risk tolerance, this system and method establishes maintenance Risk Equivalent and risk tolerance index, Economic Evaluation can be carried out to Tactial problem, for the formulation of secondary device Strategies of Maintenance provides technical support, finally overhaul of the equipments effect is evaluated, according to evaluation result, Strategies of Maintenance is adjusted.

Based on a secondary device Decision-making of Condition-based Maintenance system for risk tolerance, comprising:

(1) module set up by repair based on condition of component policy information table, preliminary repair based on condition of component knowledge base sets up module: on a computer platform, programme under C# language environment, typing is carried out to Strategies of Maintenance information table, oracle data layout is adopted to write, and stored in forming repair based on condition of component knowledge base in knowledge base;

(2) repair based on condition of component schemes generation module: for according to secondary device state evaluation, risk evaluation result, search corresponding maintenance solution in repair based on condition of component knowledge base;

(3) maintenance solution evaluation module: for the maintenance solution drawn step (2), carry out risk tolerance analysis, calculate the tolerance of this maintenance solution, good rank and adjustment are carried out to the Strategies of Maintenance in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, setting maintenance knowledge base cura specialis person authority, deletes maintenance knowledge base and increases.

A kind of secondary device Decision-making of Condition-based Maintenance method based on risk tolerance, this method definition Risk Equivalent coefficient, Risk Equivalent value is converted into by during Strategies of Maintenance institute work consuming, compare with the value-at-risk of equipment defective mode, Strategies of Maintenance quality is evaluated, the formulation of guided maintenance strategy, the method comprises the steps:

(1) repair based on condition of component policy information table, preliminary repair based on condition of component knowledge base is set up, concrete steps are: on a computer platform, programme under C# language environment, typing is carried out to Strategies of Maintenance information table, oracle data layout is adopted to write, and stored in forming repair based on condition of component knowledge base in knowledge base;

(2) according to secondary device state evaluation, risk evaluation result, in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, corresponding maintenance solution is searched;

(3) tolerance analysis is carried out to maintenance solution, calculate the tolerance of this maintenance solution, carry out good rank and adjustment to the Strategies of Maintenance in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, setting maintenance knowledge base cura specialis person authority, deletes maintenance knowledge base and increases.

The present invention contrasts prior art, has the following advantages:

The state decision system that the present invention establishes, can evaluate Strategies of Maintenance according to overhaul of the equipments result, and sort to Strategies of Maintenance is excellent according to evaluation result, can also be modified to maintenance knowledge base by administrator right, and under conventional situation, Strategies of Maintenance is once after having formulated, substantially can not change, for new equipment or fault type adaptability poor, the present invention propose knowledge base can adjust Strategies of Maintenance, have more expansion and adaptability.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is secondary device risk tolerance calculation flow chart of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is secondary device Decision-making of Condition-based Maintenance system cloud gray model flow process of the present invention.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is further described.

The present invention discloses a kind of electric grid secondary equipment state overhauling decision system analyzed based on risk tolerance, and this system comprises following content:

(1) repair based on condition of component policy information table module, preliminary repair based on condition of component base module is set up: on a computer platform, programme under C# language environment, typing is carried out to Strategies of Maintenance information table, adopts oracle data layout to write, and stored in knowledge base;

(2) repair based on condition of component schemes generation module, this module, according to secondary device state evaluation, risk evaluation result, searches corresponding maintenance solution in repair based on condition of component knowledge base.

(3) maintenance solution evaluation module: for the maintenance solution drawn step (2), carry out risk tolerance analysis, calculate the tolerance of this maintenance solution, good rank and adjustment are carried out to the Strategies of Maintenance in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, setting maintenance knowledge base cura specialis person authority, deletes maintenance knowledge base and increases.

The electric grid secondary equipment state overhauling decision-making technique concrete steps analyzed based on risk tolerance of the present invention, shown in corresponding diagram 2:

(1) set up secondary device Strategies of Maintenance information table, form preliminary repair based on condition of component knowledge base.Be embodied as:

On a computer platform, programme under C# language environment, typing is carried out to Strategies of Maintenance information table, adopt oracle data layout to write, and stored in knowledge base.

Set up secondary device repair based on condition of component knowledge base, the corresponding relation of store status evaluation in described repair based on condition of component knowledge base, risk assessment, status information and maintenance solution, maintenance solution comprises repair time, maintenance priority level, maintenance content, and concrete corresponding relation is in Table 1-table 3.State evaluation result and the corresponding relation between the repair time is listed in table 1; Table 2 row have write risk evaluation result and the corresponding relation overhauling priority level, and wherein risk class is larger, and risk class is higher, and risk class I level is highest level; Table 3 is surveyed for certain circuit and is protected integrated device, and row write the relation between status information and maintenance content

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

(2) according to secondary device warning information, state evaluation and risk evaluation result, in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, corresponding maintenance solution is searched.Warning information content is status information in table 3, and state evaluation result formats is in table 4, and risk assessment form is in table 5.

Table 4

Health status	Normally	Note	Abnormal	Seriously
					Score	90-100	80-90	70-80	0-70

Table 5

Risk class is classified

I grade

II grade

III grade

IV grade

V grade

VI grade

Value-at-risk (R)

R≥5

5＞R≥3

3＞R≥1

1＞R≥0.5

0.5＞R≥0.1

R＜0.1

(3) to the maintenance solution that step (2) draws, carry out risk tolerance analysis, maintenance knowledge base sorts to the excellent of Strategies of Maintenance and adjust, setting maintenance knowledge base cura specialis person authority, maintenance knowledge base is deleted and increased, specifically comprises the steps:

(3.1) T in man-hour of determining step (2) maintenance solution _d, man-hour T _dt when comprising check man ₁with stoppage in transit t in man-hour ₂, being both sums, is the personnel's number and the product of repair time that participate in maintenance during check man, man-hour of stopping transport is cause time of grid loss after secondary device is stopped transport, and for repair based on condition of component, mostly is planned outage or hot line job, therefore stoppage in transit is negligible for man-hour, that is: T _d=f (t ₁, t ₂).

(3.2) maintenance risk tolerance is calculated

Definition maintenance Risk Equivalent value: when secondary device risk is eliminated by Utilities Electric Co., during corresponding Strategies of Maintenance institute work consuming, conversion is to secondary device value-at-risk, and Risk Equivalent value is an equivalent risk value, there is not effective unit, uses R _drepresent, R _dabout T _dfunction.

R _D＝f(T _D)

Here function is simplified and is thought of as linear function:

R _D＝kT _D

Wherein, k is Risk Equivalent coefficient, characterizes maintenance Risk Equivalent value R _dwith the T in man-hour performing maintenance solution _dbetween proportionate relationship, T _dfor performing the man-hour of maintenance solution.

Coefficient corresponding when Risk Equivalent coefficient k is for being converted into value-at-risk when eliminating risk institute work consuming.Risk Equivalent coefficient is by Risk Equivalent value R _dwith T during elimination risk institute work consuming _dratio obtain, Risk Equivalent coefficient k be asked for, only need to determine one group of Risk Equivalent value R _dwith T during elimination risk institute work consuming _dbetween corresponding relation, maximum of T when risk institute work consuming is eliminated in existing definition _dmaxcorresponding Risk Equivalent value is R _dmax, obtain T _dmaxand R _dmaxrisk Equivalent coefficient k can be obtained.

To sum up, as shown in Figure 1, the step asking for risk tolerance is:

1. maximum of T during elimination risk institute work consuming _dmax

Maximum of T during definition elimination risk institute work consuming _dmaxfor separate unit secondary device break down time, maintenance man-hours is the longest, and namely in electrical secondary system, structure is the most complicated, maintenance procedure is the most loaded down with trivial details, drop into maintenance personal maximum, when the longest separate unit secondary device consuming time eliminates risk institute work consuming, asking for according to step 2 of concrete man-hour) determine.

2. T _dmaxcorresponding Risk Equivalent value is R _dmax

This equivalent value size is determined by rule-based and expert system that is knowledge, and defining method is as follows:

First when clear and definite risk class is I, II, III, these risks are flagrant, when risk class is IV, V, VI, whether equipment Risk can tolerate that needs compare calculating, therefore this Risk Equivalent value produces in little this part of risk class, namely risk class is IV, V, VI time, determines this corresponding Risk Equivalent value by expert system.

3. Risk Equivalent coefficient k is asked for

$k=\frac{R_{Dmax}}{T_{D\max }}$

4. by the Risk Equivalent value R determining maintenance solution during check man _d=kT _d

5. equivalent value and value-at-risk are compared, ask risk tolerance, judge the degree to this risk tolerance.

Definition risk tolerance is: equipment failure value-at-risk R and maintenance Risk Equivalent value R _dratio.Size between the loss that may cause in order to compare facilities fault and Strategies of Maintenance expense.It is better that ratio shows more greatly to perform Strategies of Maintenance benefit, and now risk tolerance is lower, and suggestion performs Strategies of Maintenance; Otherwise ratio is less shows that Strategies of Maintenance is less economical, and now risk tolerance is higher, maintenance should be postponed or consider other Strategies of Maintenances.

Due to overhaul of the equipments can produce certain negative effect, overhaul of the equipments to network system after can not return to original state completely, therefore when considering risk tolerance, also should consider the content of this part, perform this Strategies of Maintenance when the equivalent value of recondition expense should be less than failure risk value and just calculate.Following table 6 provides the corresponding relation that risk tolerance value and Strategies of Maintenance are advised.

Table 6

(3.3) overhaul knowledge base sort according to risk tolerance angle value to the excellent of Strategies of Maintenance and adjust, setting maintenance knowledge base cura specialis person authority, can delete maintenance knowledge base and increase.Be embodied as:

Under C# computer language, realize ranking function, operation maintenance personnel can sort to this Strategies of Maintenance by risk tolerance order from big to small, and sequence Strategies of Maintenance rearward needs to carry out adjusting or reformulating Strategies of Maintenance.Set different administration authorities, decision maker can enter maintenance knowledge base with keeper's identity, increases Strategies of Maintenance correspondence table or deletes.

The present invention sets up all kinds of secondary device maintenance Risk Equivalent index, the risk tolerance analytical approach of establishing, Economic Evaluation can be carried out to Strategies of Maintenance, for the formulation of Strategies of Maintenance and execution provide decision references, the Strategies of Maintenance of more existing main dependence producer's handbook and regulatory, whether reasonable maintenance relatively blindly, cannot pass judgment on Strategies of Maintenance, the invention provides the Economic Evaluation result of Strategies of Maintenance, make the formulation of Strategies of Maintenance more reasonable.

Embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto; under stating basic fundamental thought prerequisite on the invention; according to the ordinary technical knowledge of this area and customary means to content of the present invention make the amendment of other various ways, replacement or change, all drop within rights protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (3)

1., based on the electric grid secondary equipment state overhauling decision system that risk tolerance is analyzed, it is characterized in that this system comprises following content:

(1) repair based on condition of component policy information table module, preliminary repair based on condition of component base module is set up: on a computer platform, programme under C# language environment, typing is carried out to Strategies of Maintenance information table, adopts oracle data layout to write, and stored in knowledge base;

(2) repair based on condition of component schemes generation module, this module, according to secondary device state evaluation, risk evaluation result, searches corresponding maintenance solution in repair based on condition of component knowledge base;

(3) maintenance solution evaluation module: for the maintenance solution drawn step (2), carry out risk tolerance analysis, calculate the tolerance of this maintenance solution, good rank and adjustment are carried out to the Strategies of Maintenance in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, setting maintenance knowledge base cura specialis person authority, deletes maintenance knowledge base and increases.

2., based on the electric grid secondary equipment state overhauling decision-making technique that risk tolerance is analyzed, it is characterized in that comprising the steps:

(1) repair based on condition of component policy information table, preliminary repair based on condition of component knowledge base is set up, concrete steps are: on a computer platform, programme under C# language environment, typing is carried out to Strategies of Maintenance information table, oracle data layout is adopted to write, and stored in forming repair based on condition of component knowledge base in knowledge base;

(2) according to secondary device state evaluation, risk evaluation result, in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, corresponding maintenance solution is searched;

(3) tolerance analysis is carried out to the maintenance solution that step (2) draws, calculate the tolerance of this maintenance solution, good rank and adjustment are carried out to the Strategies of Maintenance in repair based on condition of component knowledge base, setting maintenance knowledge base cura specialis person authority, deletes maintenance knowledge base and increases.

3. method according to claim 2, is characterized in that: described step (3) specifically comprises the steps:

(3.1) T in man-hour of determining step (2) maintenance solution _d, man-hour T _dt when comprising check man ₁with stoppage in transit t in man-hour ₂both sums are the personnel's number and the product of repair time that participate in maintenance during check man, and man-hour of stopping transport is the time of causing grid loss after secondary device is stopped transport, that is: T _d=f (t ₁, t ₂);

(3.2) maintenance risk tolerance is calculated

1. maximum of T when eliminating risk institute work consuming is obtained _dmax;

2. Risk Equivalent value is R _dmax: when risk class is IV, V, VI time, determine corresponding this Risk Equivalent value R by expert system _dmax;

3. Risk Equivalent coefficient k is asked for

$k=\frac{R_{Dmax}}{T_{Dmax}}$

4. by the Risk Equivalent value R determining maintenance solution during check man _d=kT _d

5. equivalent value and value-at-risk are compared, ask risk tolerance, judge the degree to this risk tolerance.