CN104166788B - Overhead transmission line optimal economic life range assessment method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides an overhead transmission line optimal economic life range assessment method. The error of a failure rate prediction result of electric transmission and transformation equipment and the subjectivity of rough calculation of partial parameters of the full-life cycle cost cause an economic life result obtained by the adoption of setting calculation to have certain deviation. The overhead transmission line optimal economic life range assessment method comprises the steps that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the analytic hierarchy process are used for calculating membership degrees of all indexes and weights of all the indexes respectively; then, training output and error calculation are conducted on three failure rates of a transmission line through a least square support vector machine together with the relevant data of the service age, the external operation environment and the quality condition of the transmission line respectively, and a failure rate prediction model of the transmission line is obtained; finally, the interval analysis method is introduced into the life cycle cost theory and the optimal economic life range of the transmission line is obtained at last. According to the overhead transmission line optimal economic life range assessment method, the characteristics that the wild operation environment of the transmission line is poor and the regional span of the transmission line is wide are fully considered, and meanwhile, the problem that for different transmission lines, a uniform life ending standard is hard to provide is solved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to field of power, specifically a kind of overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span Interval evaluation
Method.
Background technology
As the important component part of electrical network, transmission line of electricity is chronically at the field of bad environments and operating condition is complicated many
Sample, was therefore possible to situations such as rate of breaking down is higher, part replacement is frequent before the not up to desired design life-span.To tool
The transmission line of electricity having certain enlistment age carries out life appraisal, can be prevented effectively from because too high fault rate or frequently maintenance and repair and
The a large amount of direct economic losses causing, and run consequence and indirect economic loss side reducing the electrical network excessive risk causing that has a power failure
More there is immeasurable effect in face.In the life cycle management asset management of electrical network, transmission line of electricity life prediction is capable of electricity
The life-span coupling of net equipment room, improves utilization rate of equipment and installations, reduces electric power enterprise operation cost.Additionally, with China's electrical network scale
Continuous expansion and electric network composition increasingly complicated, the rational transmission line of electricity retired time can be additionally used in instructing the rule of following electrical network
Draw, upgrade and transform.
In the past the fault rate forecast model based on Weibull distribution or exponential distribution only using the enlistment age as master variable, not
There is the consideration impact to fault rate for the other factors, and the order of severity of failure effect is not distinguish between it is difficult to the meter that becomes more meticulous
Calculate failure cost and maintenance cost.
Error and the subjectivity of overall life cycle cost partial parameters rough calculation that power transmission and transforming equipment fault rate predicts the outcome
Property makes to have certain deviation using the economic life result of fixed value calculation, and then power transmission and transforming equipment is retired to cause shadow to instructing
Ring.
Content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved is the defect overcoming above-mentioned prior art to exist, and provides a kind of overhead power transmission
Circuit optimal economic life-span interval appraisal procedure, it takes into full account the shadow to circuit economic life assessment result for the uncertain information
Ring, to improve confidence level and the reasonability of result.
For this reason, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that：A kind of overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span Interval evaluation side
Method it is characterised in that
First, according to historical statistics data, arrangement and the outside running environment of classification transmission line of electricity and sole mass situation are commented
Estimate index, calculate each index degree of membership and weight respectively using Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
Then, fault is divided into by generic failure (line defct, unit exception, slightly event according to the failure effect order of severity
Barrier), (cause one to six grades of electrical network things compared with major break down (causing seven to eight grades of power grid accidents or equal catastrophe failure) and catastrophe failure
Therefore or equal catastrophe failure) three types, the enlistment age of transmission line of electricity, outside operation ring are combined by least square method supporting vector machine
Border and sole mass condition-relevant data are trained output and error calculation respectively to three kinds of fault rates of transmission line of electricity, obtain
The fault rate forecast model of transmission line of electricity；
Finally, Interval Analytical Method is incorporated in overall life cycle cost theory, by the interval meter of line failure rate to be assessed
Calculate failure cost and maintenance cost and by each indicator of costs intervalization, with average annual cost minimization for the optimum power transmission line of object solving
The retired time range in road, eliminates the deviation of single definite value, and the optimal economic life-span finally giving transmission line of electricity is interval.
The circuit optimal economic life-span judged using the present invention is interval, can formulate the retired standard of circuit.If circuit
Run time exceedes optimal economic life-span interval, then circuit is retired；If interval not less than the optimal economic life-span, circuit continues
Run.
The present invention has taken into full account the features such as transmission line of electricity field running environment is severe, region span is big, solves simultaneously
Dissimilar transmission line of electricity is difficult to provide the problem of unified end of life criteria.
The present invention is using step in detail below：
Step 1), the outside running environment of transmission line of electricity and sole mass condition evaluation set of factors, index set and Comment gathers
Set up,
Set of factors and each lower floor index are divided into 4 evaluation approach, that is, Comment gathers are V={ v1,v2,v3,v4}={ is good
Good, fair, typically, bad；
Step 2), the calculating of the outside running environment of transmission line of electricity and sole mass condition evaluation index degree of membership and weight,
Being calculated as follows of index degree of membership：By making evaluation table to every expert, the evaluation situation according to expert calculates
The degree of membership of each index, index degree of membership rijComputing formula as follows：
In formula, PijRepresent and think that in set of factors, the i-th index belongs to comment vjExpert's number, PtotalRepresent and participate in evaluation
Expert's total number of persons, i=1,2 ..., u, u are the index number in set of factors, j=1-4, after the degree of membership trying to achieve index set,
Set of factors fuzzy membership matrix R can be obtained；
The determination of index weights adopts " 9 indexing " in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP), after expert's sequence calculates, can
Obtain set of factors each index weights vector W；
Step 3), the comprehensive assessment of outside running environment and sole mass situation and scoring, its Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector B
Computing formula as follows：
B=WoR
In formula, R is set of factors fuzzy membership matrix, and W is set of factors each index weights vector, and " o " is operator, represents
Synthesis computing, using M (,+) operator, that is,
In formula, bjFor set of factors to comment vjDegree of membership, wiFor the weight of the i-th index in set of factors, rijIt is subordinate to for index
Degree；
After being calculated the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector of set of factors, according to maximum membership grade principle, the then synthesis of set of factors
Assessment result is comment v corresponding to maximum membership degreej；Assume that Comment gathers corresponding scoring collection isThe i.e. corresponding corresponding scoring of corresponding evaluation approach, then comprehensive assessment result is comment
vjSet of factors score and be
Step 4), sample line historical data is trained and error analysis：
Enlistment age in stage T, running environment are scored by ginsengWith quality condition scoringIdentical power transmission line
Road is defined as similar circuit, and analyzes historical data during enlistment age in stage T for the similar circuit, counts three class fault rates respectively
As a sample, (due to circuit, in 1 year, Various Seasonal has different fault types and different year great due to certain
The floating of disaster causing trouble rate, therefore 5 years more science are correspondingly set to the statistics duration of similar line fault number of times),
The year fault rate λ computing formula of similar enlistment age in circuit stage is as follows, and unit is times/year hundred kilometers,
In formula,For the total failare number of times of similar line fault in 5 years, generic failure, larger
Fault, catastrophe failure count respectively,For 5 year end similar line lengths and；
In transmission line malfunction rate forecast model, sample line data is circuit essential information vector xm=(xm1,xm2,
xm3,xm4,xm5) and circuit physical fault rate vector λm=(λm1,λm2,λm3), wherein, m=1,2 ..., M+N, M+N are sample number
Amount；xm1,xm2,xm3,xm4,xm5Represent enlistment age in stage T and the set of factors scoring of sample line respectivelyλm1,λm2,λm3It is respectively generic failure, relatively major break down and the catastrophe failure of sample line
Fault rate；Using M group sample training, N group sample makes a checking calculation, and the computing formula of error is as follows：
In formula,It is the sample line fault rate actual count value as checking computations,It is the sample line as checking computations
Road fault rate predicted value, N is the sample size as checking computations, and ε is AME；
Step 5), the fault rate interval prediction of circuit to be assessed：
When circuit to be assessed is carried out with fault rate prediction, the running environment set of factors scoring of this circuitWithBy throwing
After fortune, judging, quality condition set of factors scores line corridor environmental aspect over the yearsWithRun inspection according to circuit over the years
Repair record and condition evaluation results to evaluate；
Step 6), circuit analysis of Life Cycle Cost：
When transmission line of electricity run to L retired when, its annual cost is as follows：
In formula, L is the operation year of transmission line of electricity, NFLRun the annual cost of L for transmission line of electricity, IC represents just
Beginning input cost, r is social discount rate, and obsolescence cost DC is income liquidation cost, and R is artificial Master Cost growth rate, OCt、MCt、
FCtIt is respectively operating cost, maintenance cost and the failure cost of transmission line of electricity t；
Step 7), line cost intervalization calculates：
Circuit builds up after putting into operation, and disposable input cost IC is fixing, the feelings that operating cost OC determines in operational plan
Under condition, annual expenditure is floated in an interval；After circuit is retired, obsolescence cost computing formula is as follows：
DC=p × IC
In formula, p is obsolescence cost percentage-proportion interval；
After trying to achieve all kinds of cost intervals, by finding Average Annual Cost NFLOperation year scope when minimum, can obtain defeated
The optimal economic life-span of electric line is interval.
Further, step 5) in it is assumed that transmission line of electricity is the longest can run to enlistment age in stage Tmax, by the rank of circuit to be assessed
Duan Yiling arrives " T by " 1 "max" substitute into successively, obtain the enlistment age in this circuit each stage three class year fault rate；Then, carry out stage labour
Year in age conversion from fault rate to actual year enlistment age fault rate, conversion process is as follows：Transmission line of electricity each stage enlistment age bound year
Average, by year enlistment age in stage fault rate be set to respectively circuit 3 years ' operation (1～5 year), 8 years (6～10 years) ...,
5Tmax- 2 years (5Tmax- 4～5TmaxYear) when year fault rate, using cubic spline interpolation, be calculated transmission line of electricity run 1-
5TmaxThe year fault rate in year；Finally, according to error ε by fault rate intervalization, the fault rate scope of three class faults, fault rate are calculated
Intervalization formula is as follows：
It is respectively lower limit and the upper limit of t line failure rate, λtFor t circuit after interpolation arithmetic
Fault rate predicted value.
Further, step 6) in, maintenance cost MC needed for transmission line of electricity ttWith failure cost FCtHave with fault rate
Close, computing formula is as follows：
Subscript k=1,2,3 represent generic failure, respectively compared with major break down, catastrophe failure, λkT () is line failure rate, l is
Transmission line length, MkAveraging section renewal cost for each fault of transmission line of electricity and manual maintenance's expense, FkFor transmission line of electricity
The average aggregate loss that fault causes.
Further, step 6) in, social discount rate r, maintenance cost Mk, failure cost Fk, artificial material expense growth rate R
All represented using interval number.
Further, step 4) in, when transmission line malfunction rate being trained calculate, using the transmission of electricity of identical electric pressure
Track data (transmission line of electricity electric pressure is different, and fault rate difference is very big).
Further, step 4) in, by circuit initially put into days on the basis of carry out enlistment age statistics, with 5 years as list during statistics
Position calculation stages enlistment age T it is assumed that certain circuit has put into operation Z, then its enlistment age in stage beWhereinFor above rounding symbol
Number.The such as enlistment age is " 2 " for its enlistment age in stage of circuit of " 6-10 ".
Present invention incorporates the aging complex characteristics with fault " multifactor impact, many consequences are constituted " of transmission line of electricity and event
Barrier rate error analysis, so that transmitting electricity compared with the power transmission and transforming equipment bathtub curve matching forecast model of conventional single enlistment age variable
Line failure rate predicts the outcome more reasonable.Transmission line of electricity is carried out with analysis of Life Cycle Cost and intervalization, and with average annual
Cost minimization tries to achieve combined reliability as criterion and the circuit optimal economic life-span of economic index is interval, has taken into full account not
Determine the impact to circuit economic life assessment result for the information, improve confidence level and the reasonability of result.The present invention fully examines
Consider the features such as transmission line of electricity field running environment is severe, region span is big, solved dissimilar transmission line of electricity simultaneously and be difficult to
Provide the problem of unified end of life criteria.
Brief description
Fig. 1 is line failure rate forecast model flow chart of the present invention.
Fig. 2 a～c is example circuit (circuit 1 and circuit 2) generic failure in application examples, relatively major break down, the event of catastrophe failure
Barrier rate curve (curve above in figure is circuit 1, and a curve below is circuit 2), wherein Fig. 2 a is circuit 1 and line
The bathtub curve of road 2 generic failure, Fig. 2 b is circuit 1 and the bathtub curve of circuit 2 relatively major break down, and Fig. 2 c is circuit 1 He
The bathtub curve of circuit 2 catastrophe failure.
Fig. 3 a～b is circuit 1 and the average annual overall life cycle cost curve of circuit 2 in application examples.Fig. 3 a is that circuit 1 is complete every year
Life cycle cost bound curve, Fig. 3 b is the average annual overall life cycle cost bound curve of circuit 2.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the invention will be further described, and the present invention comprises the following steps：
Step (1), the foundation of line operation environment and quality condition appraisal parameters, index set and Comment gathers.Specifically：
Transmission line of electricity running environment and quality condition appraisal parameters and index set are as shown in table 1.
Table 1 transmission line of electricity running environment and quality condition appraisal parameters and index set
Set of factors and each lower floor index are divided into 4 evaluation approach, that is, Comment gathers are：V={ v1,v2,v3,v4}={ is good
Good, fair, typically, bad.
Step (2), the calculating of line operation environment and quality condition evaluation index degree of membership and weight.Specifically：
The calculating of index degree of membership adopts Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment.By making evaluation table to every expert, according to expert
Evaluation situation calculate the degree of membership of each index, index degree of membership rijComputing formula as follows：
In formula, PijRepresent and think that in set of factors, the i-th index belongs to comment vjExpert's number, PtotalRepresent and participate in evaluation
Expert's total number of persons, i=1,2 ..., u, u are the index number in set of factors, j=1-4.After the degree of membership trying to achieve index set,
Set of factors fuzzy membership matrix R can be obtained.
The determination of index weights adopts " 9 indexing " in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP), after expert's sequence calculates, can
Obtain set of factors each index weights vector W.
Set of factors fuzzy membership matrix and index weights vector example are as follows：
Step (3), the comprehensive assessment of running environment and quality condition and scoring.Specifically：
B is Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector, and its computing formula is as follows：
B=WoR
In formula, " o " is operator, represents synthesis computing, and the present invention adopts M (,+) operator, that is,
In formula, bjFor set of factors to comment vjDegree of membership, wiWeight for the i-th index in set of factors.
After being calculated the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector of set of factors, according to maximum membership grade principle, the then synthesis of set of factors
Assessment result is comment v corresponding to maximum membership degreej.Present invention assumes that Comment gathers corresponding scoring collection isThe i.e. corresponding corresponding scoring of corresponding evaluation approach, then comprehensive assessment result is comment
vjSet of factors score and be
Step (4), the training of sample line historical data and error analysis.Specifically：
There is following explanation to the input information of training sample circuit.
1) transmission line of electricity electric pressure is different, and fault rate difference is larger, therefore transmission line malfunction rate is trained counting
During calculation, using the transmission line of electricity data of identical electric pressure.
2) fault is divided into by the standard with regard to transmission line malfunction consequence promulgated with reference to national grid according to the order of severity
Generic failure (line defct, unit exception, minor failure), relatively major break down (cause seven to eight grades of power grid accidents or serious on an equal basis
Fault), catastrophe failure (causing one to six grades of power grid accidents or equal catastrophe failure) three types, respectively statistics circuit three class therefore
Barrier rate.
3) by circuit initially put into days on the basis of carry out enlistment age statistics, with 5 years for the unit calculation stages enlistment age during statistics
T Z it is assumed that certain circuit has put into operation, then its enlistment age in stage beWhereinFor above rounding symbol.The such as enlistment age is " 6
～10 years " its enlistment age in stage of circuit be " 2 ".
4) enlistment age in stage T, running environment are scoredWith quality condition scoringIdentical power transmission line
Road is defined as similar circuit, and analyzes historical data during enlistment age in stage T for the similar circuit, counts three class fault rates respectively
As a sample.Due to circuit, in 1 year, Various Seasonal has different fault types and different year great due to certain
The floating of disaster causing trouble rate, therefore 5 years more science are correspondingly set to the statistics duration of similar line fault number of times.
The year fault rate λ computing formula of similar enlistment age in circuit stage is as follows, and unit is times/year hundred kilometers.
In formula,Total failare number of times for similar line fault in 5 years is (generic failure, larger
Fault, catastrophe failure count respectively),For 5 year end similar line lengths and.
In transmission line malfunction rate forecast model, sample line data is circuit essential information vector xm=(xm1,xm2,
xm3,xm4,xm5) and circuit physical fault rate vector λm=(λm1,λm2,λm3), wherein, m=1, (M+N is sample number for 2 ..., M+N
Amount).xm1,xm2,xm3,xm4,xm5Represent enlistment age in stage T and the set of factors scoring of sample line respectivelyλm1,λm2,λm3It is respectively generic failure, relatively major break down and the catastrophe failure of sample line
Fault rate.The present invention is made a checking calculation using M group sample training, N group sample, and the computing formula of error is as follows：
In formula,It is the sample line fault rate actual count value as checking computations,It is the sample line as checking computations
Road fault rate predicted value, N is the sample size as checking computations, and ε is AME.
Step (5), the fault rate interval prediction of circuit to be assessed.Specifically：
When circuit to be assessed is carried out with fault rate prediction, the running environment set of factors scoring of this circuitWithBy throwing
After fortune, judging, quality condition set of factors scores line corridor environmental aspect over the yearsWithRun inspection according to circuit over the years
Repair record and condition evaluation results to evaluate.
Assume that transmission line of electricity is the longest can run to enlistment age in stage Tmax, the enlistment age in stage of circuit to be assessed is arrived by " 1 "
“Tmax" substitute into successively, obtain the enlistment age in this circuit each stage three class year fault rate.Then, carry out year enlistment age in stage fault rate to
Actual year enlistment age fault rate conversion, conversion process is as follows：Transmission line of electricity each stage enlistment age bound year is averaged, by rank
Duan Yiling fault rate is set to circuit 3 years ' operation (1～5 year), 8 years (6～10 years) ... 5T respectivelymax- 2 years (5Tmax- 4～
5TmaxYear) when year fault rate, using cubic spline interpolation, be calculated transmission line of electricity run 1～5TmaxThe year fault rate in year.
Finally, according to error ε by fault rate intervalization, calculate the fault rate scope of three class faults.Fault rate intervalization formula is as follows：
It is respectively lower limit and the upper limit of t line failure rate, λtFor t circuit after interpolation arithmetic
Fault rate predicted value.
The flow chart of the fault rate forecast model of assessment circuit is shown in Fig. 1.
Step (6), circuit analysis of Life Cycle Cost.Specifically：
When transmission line of electricity run to L retired when, its annual cost is as follows：
In formula, L is the operation year of transmission line of electricity, NFLRun the annual cost of L for transmission line of electricity, IC represents just
Beginning input cost, r is social discount rate, and obsolescence cost DC is income liquidation cost, and R is artificial Master Cost growth rate.OCt、MCt、
FCtIt is respectively operating cost, maintenance cost and the failure cost of transmission line of electricity t.
Maintenance cost MC needed for transmission line of electricity ttWith failure cost FCtRelevant with fault rate, computing formula is as follows：
Subscript k=1,2,3 represent generic failure, respectively compared with major break down, catastrophe failure, λkT () is line failure rate, l is
Transmission line length, MkAveraging section renewal cost for each fault of transmission line of electricity and manual maintenance's expense, FkFor transmission line of electricity
The average aggregate loss that fault causes.
Step (7), line cost intervalization calculates.Specifically：
Circuit builds up after putting into operation, and disposable input cost IC is fixing.The feelings that operating cost OC determines in operational plan
Under condition, annual expenditure floats (present invention disregards line loss) substantially in an interval.After circuit is retired, obsolescence cost meter
Calculate formula as follows：
DC=p × IC
In formula, p is obsolescence cost percentage-proportion interval.Additionally, social discount rate r, maintenance cost Mk, failure cost Fk, artificial
Master Cost growth rate R is all represented using interval number.
After trying to achieve all kinds of cost intervals, by finding Average Annual Cost NFLOperation year scope when minimum, can obtain defeated
The optimal economic life-span of electric line is interval.
Application examples
For verifying the feasibility of interval appraisal procedure of above-mentioned overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span.Choose two, somewhere
220kV overhead transmission line carries out optimal economic life-span Interval evaluation.Circuit 1 total length 42.9km, puts into operation in July, 2005, builds
During one-tenth, total price is 2143.3 ten thousand yuan；Circuit 2 total length 37.8km, put into operation in November, 2004, and when building up, total price is 1873.5 ten thousand yuan.
By the evaluation of multidigit expert, the Result of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of circuit 1 and each set of factors of circuit 2 is as follows：
Circuit 1 and the E of circuit 2 can be obtained1、E2、H1、H2Assessment result is general, fair, fair, general, i.e. Sline1=3,
2,2,3 } and fair, good, good, fair, i.e. Sline2={ 2,1,1,2 }.
Through training output and the interpolation arithmetic of fault rate forecast model, obtain circuit 1 and the fault of circuit 2 three class fault
Rate curve is as shown in Fig. 2 a～c.According to checking computation results error calculation, the error ε taking fault rate is 7.5%.
The interval such as table 2 of the relevant historical data of the local electric power enterprise of reference, each cost of transmission line of electricity and related economic parameter.
The each cost of table 2 transmission line of electricity and related economic parameter are interval
| Cost and related economic parameter | Interval range |
| Operating costOC(ten thousand hundred kilometers of yuan/year) | [13,16] |
| Generic failure average maintenance and failure cost and (ten thousand yuan/time) | [10,12] |
| Compared with major break down average maintenance and failure cost and (ten thousand yuan/time) | [121,128] |
| Catastrophe failure average maintenance and failure cost and (ten thousand yuan/time) | [406,419] |
| Social discount rater | [0.055,0.06] |
| Artificial material expense growth rateR | [0.053,0.058] |
| Obsolescence cost percentagep | [0.35,0.4] |
Calculated circuit 1 and the different annual cost upper lower limit value running during year of circuit 2 and painted by the data in table 2
Make curve, as shown in Fig. 3 a～b.
In Fig. 3 a～b, circuit 1 and circuit 2 economic life under high fault rate and high O＆M failure cost be 27 years and
30 years, the economic life under less trouble and low O＆M failure cost was 29 years and 32 years, and that is, circuit 1 and circuit 2 is optimal
Interval respectively 27～29 years and 30～32 years of economic life.It is indicated above that running environment and quality residing for different transmission lines of electricity
Situation is different, and its optimal economic life-span interval will change.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span interval appraisal procedure it is characterised in that
First, according to historical statistics data, arrangement and the outside running environment of classification transmission line of electricity and sole mass condition evaluation refer to
Mark, calculates each index degree of membership and weight respectively using Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
Then, fault is divided into by generic failure, relatively major break down and catastrophe failure three types according to the failure effect order of severity, leads to
Cross least square method supporting vector machine and combine enlistment age, outside running environment and the sole mass condition-relevant data of transmission line of electricity to defeated
Three kinds of fault rates of electric line are trained output and error calculation respectively, obtain the fault rate forecast model of transmission line of electricity；
Finally, Interval Analytical Method is incorporated in overall life cycle cost theory, by line failure rate interval computation to be assessed event
Hinder cost and maintenance cost and by each indicator of costs intervalization, moved back for the optimum transmission line of electricity of object solving with average annual cost minimization
Labour time range, eliminates the deviation of single definite value, and the optimal economic life-span finally giving transmission line of electricity is interval；
Using step in detail below：
Step 1), the foundation of the outside running environment of transmission line of electricity and sole mass condition evaluation set of factors, index set and Comment gathers,
Set of factors and each lower floor index are divided into 4 evaluation approach, that is, Comment gathers are V={ v1,v2,v3,v4}={ is good, still
Good, typically, bad；
Step 2), the calculating of the outside running environment of transmission line of electricity and sole mass condition evaluation index degree of membership and weight,
Being calculated as follows of index degree of membership：By making evaluation table to every expert, each is calculated according to the evaluation situation of expert
The degree of membership of index, index degree of membership rijComputing formula as follows：
In formula, PijRepresent and think that in set of factors, the i-th index belongs to comment vjExpert's number, PtotalRepresent the expert participating in evaluation
Total number of persons, i=1,2 ..., u, u are the index number in set of factors, and the value of j is 1-4, try to achieve index set degree of membership it
Afterwards, set of factors fuzzy membership matrix R can be obtained；
The determination of index weights adopts " 9 indexing " in analytic hierarchy process (AHP), after expert's sequence calculates, can obtain set of factors each
Index weights vector W；
Step 3), the comprehensive assessment of outside running environment and sole mass situation and scoring, the meter of its Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector B
Calculate formula as follows：
B=WoR
In formula, R is set of factors fuzzy membership matrix, and W is set of factors each index weights vector, and " o " is operator, represents synthesis
Computing, using M (,+) operator, that is,
In formula, bjFor set of factors to comment vjDegree of membership, wiFor the weight of the i-th index in set of factors, rijFor index degree of membership；
After being calculated the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector of set of factors, according to maximum membership grade principle, the then comprehensive assessment of set of factors
Result is comment v corresponding to maximum membership degreej；Assume that Comment gathers corresponding scoring collection is
The i.e. corresponding corresponding scoring of corresponding evaluation approach, then comprehensive assessment result is comment vjSet of factors score and be
Step 4), sample line historical data is trained and error analysis：
By enlistment age in stage T, running environment scoring SE1、SE2With quality condition scoring SH1、SH2Identical transmission line of electricity is defined as similar
Circuit, and analyze historical data during enlistment age in stage T for the similar circuit, count three class fault rates respectively as a sample
This,
The year fault rate λ computing formula of similar enlistment age in circuit stage is as follows, and unit is times/year hundred kilometers,
In formula,For the total failare number of times of similar line fault in 5 years, generic failure, relatively die
Barrier, catastrophe failure count respectively,For 5 year end similar line lengths and；
In transmission line malfunction rate forecast model, sample line data is circuit essential information vector xm=(xm1,xm2,xm3,xm4,
xm5) and circuit physical fault rate vector λm=(λm1,λm2,λm3), wherein, m=1,2 ..., M+N, M+N are sample size；xm1,
xm2,xm3,xm4,xm5Represent enlistment age in the stage T and set of factors scoring S of sample line respectivelyE1、SE2、SH1、SH2；λm1,λm2,λm3Point
Not Wei sample line generic failure, compared with major break down and catastrophe failure fault rate；Using M group sample training, N group sample does
Checking computations, the computing formula of error is as follows：
In formula,It is the sample line fault rate actual count value as checking computations,It is the sample line fault as checking computations
Rate predicted value, N is the sample size as checking computations, and ε is AME；
Step 5), the fault rate interval prediction of circuit to be assessed：
When circuit to be assessed is carried out with fault rate prediction, the running environment set of factors scoring S of this circuitE1And SE2By line after putting into operation
Judging, quality condition set of factors scores S road corridor environmental aspect over the yearsH1And SH2According to circuit operating maintenance over the years record and
Condition evaluation results are evaluating；
Step 6), circuit analysis of Life Cycle Cost：
When transmission line of electricity run to L retired when, its annual cost is as follows：
In formula, L is the operation year of transmission line of electricity, NFLRun the annual cost of L for transmission line of electricity, IC represents initial input
Cost, r is social discount rate, and obsolescence cost DC is income liquidation cost, and R is artificial Master Cost growth rate, OCt、MCt、FCtPoint
Wei not the operating cost of transmission line of electricity t, maintenance cost and failure cost；
Step 7), line cost intervalization calculates：
Circuit builds up after putting into operation, and disposable input cost IC is fixing, operating cost OC operational plan determination in the case of,
Annual expenditure is floated in an interval；After circuit is retired, obsolescence cost computing formula is as follows：
DC=p × IC
In formula, p is obsolescence cost percentage-proportion interval；
After trying to achieve all kinds of cost intervals, by finding Average Annual Cost NFLOperation year scope when minimum, can obtain power transmission line
The optimal economic life-span on road is interval.
2. overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span according to claim 1 interval appraisal procedure is it is characterised in that step
5) it is assumed that transmission line of electricity is the longest can run to enlistment age in stage T inmax, the enlistment age in stage of circuit to be assessed is arrived " T by " 1 "max" according to
Secondary substitution, obtain the enlistment age in this circuit each stage three class year fault rate；Then, carry out year enlistment age in stage fault rate to the actual enlistment age
The conversion of year fault rate, conversion process is as follows：Transmission line of electricity each stage enlistment age bound year is averaged, by year enlistment age in stage
Fault rate be set to respectively circuit 3 years ' operation, 8 years ..., 5TmaxYear fault rate when -2 years, using cubic spline interpolation, calculates
Obtain transmission line of electricity and run 1-5TmaxThe year fault rate in year；Finally, according to error ε by fault rate intervalization, three class faults are calculated
Fault rate scope, fault rate intervalization formula is as follows：
It is respectively lower limit and the upper limit of t line failure rate, λtFor t line failure rate after interpolation arithmetic
Predicted value.
3. overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span according to claim 2 interval appraisal procedure is it is characterised in that step
6) maintenance cost MC in, needed for transmission line of electricity ttWith failure cost FCtRelevant with fault rate, computing formula is as follows：
Subscript k=1,2,3 represent generic failure, respectively compared with major break down, catastrophe failure, λkT () is line failure rate, l is power transmission line
Road length, MkAveraging section renewal cost for each fault of transmission line of electricity and manual maintenance's expense, FkMake for transmission line malfunction
The average aggregate loss becoming.
4. overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span according to claim 3 interval appraisal procedure is it is characterised in that step
6) in, social discount rate r, maintenance cost MCt, failure cost FCt, artificial material expense growth rate R all represented using interval number.
5. overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span according to claim 1 interval appraisal procedure is it is characterised in that step
4) in, when transmission line malfunction rate being trained calculate, using the transmission line of electricity data of identical electric pressure.
6. overhead transmission line optimal economic life-span according to claim 1 interval appraisal procedure is it is characterised in that step
4) in, by circuit initially put into days on the basis of carry out enlistment age statistics, during statistics with 5 years for unit calculation stages enlistment age T it is assumed that
Certain circuit has put into operation Z, then its enlistment age in stage beWhereinFor above rounding symbol.
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