CN105260603A - Climatic event risk evaluation method and system - Google Patents
Climatic event risk evaluation method and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN105260603A CN105260603A CN201510658790.7A CN201510658790A CN105260603A CN 105260603 A CN105260603 A CN 105260603A CN 201510658790 A CN201510658790 A CN 201510658790A CN 105260603 A CN105260603 A CN 105260603A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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Abstract
The invention discloses a climate event risk evaluation method and system. The system comprises: a parameter setting subsystem, an inquiry and statistics subsystem, a factor management subsystem, a disaster evaluation subsystem and a backstage management subsystem. According to the invention, an intuitive, vivid, convenient and graphical statistical analysis tool and a display means are provided, so that the system has the visual analysis ability; according to local weather disaster characteristics, a weather disaster risk evaluation model is established, the model and consultation are used, and visual early warning information is published timely; a security certification and permission management mechanism is provided, and aiming at information service platforms of users with different permissions, inquiry, downloading, conversion and serving of information in an internet environment are implemented; the spatial analysis ability of a GIS is used, connections among various types of data are fully mined, and an application level of the system and use efficiency of the various types of data are improved overall; and a B/S structure is used, the method and the system are simple to operate and have no limitation to the number of users, and management and maintenance cost of the system is largely reduced.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to weather forecast technical field, particularly relate to a kind of climatic event methods of risk assessment and system.
Background technology
In recent years, due to global warming, the generation of Extreme Weather-climate Events is abnormal frequent, meteorological disaster showed increased, increasingly sharpen on the impact of socio-economic development, annual all kinds of meteorological disaster causes serious loss all to the lives and properties of our the country and people.Tibet is positioned at border area, motherland southwest, it is the main body of Qinghai-Tibet Platean, owing to being located in the pregnant calamity environment of this uniqueness of the roof of the world, be subject to the double influence of the pregnant calamity factor such as climatic factor complicated and changeable and active geological movement, define the pregnant calamity environment of Tibet uniqueness, pregnant calamity ability is strong especially, very easily meteorological disaster and geologic hazard occurs, become one of the highest area of China's disaster occurrence frequency, and disaster kind is many, distributional region is wide, destructiveness is large.Due to strongly affecting by westerlies weather system and Indian Ocean warm moist air, dry rainy season is obvious, and meteorological disaster occurs frequent.Meteorological disaster type mainly comprises: Droughts, snow disaster, flood, frost calamity, hail disaster, disaster caused by a windstorm etc.The IDNDR science and technology council in 1999, in the final report that its " mitigation 10 years " is movable, list 5 challenge fields that mitigation interface, the 21 century world is faced, wherein 3 fields and calamity source problem closely related, this shows that natural hybridized orbit assessment has become the important research field of current international mitigation with management review.Natural hybridized orbit assessment refers to means by venture analysis, and evaluate the Flood inducing factors intensity of still nonevent disaster, Disaster degree and estimate, evaluation mainly infers Disaster degree according to Flood inducing factors intensity and hazard-affected body fragility.The starting of external natural hybridized orbit evaluation studies comparatively early, and is progressively tending towards standardization and modelling.Domestic natural hybridized orbit assessment and management work are started late, and initial disaster study mainly lays particular emphasis on the natural quality of disaster.In recent years, in order to improve the level of natural hybridized orbit assessment and management, domestic scholars has carried out unremitting effort.While carrying out Disaster Assessment research and practice, Natural Disaster Evaluation is theoretical, Method and Technology obtains the discussion and summary day by day deepened.This project takes place frequently for Tibet meteorological disaster, lose large feature, by setting up Tibet Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster index GIS database, building Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster unified model, the risk assessment operation system researching and developing great climatic event solves preventing and reducing natural disasters and practical problems in counter-measure formulation etc. about meteorological disaster for meteorological department and local government.Look back the more serious meteorological disaster that China occurs in history, the typhoon that arid, Rainstorm Flood and tropical cyclone cause is the disaster kind that China is the most common, the extent of injury is the most serious.In meteorological disaster, the disaster that arid Ye Shi China influence surface is maximum, the most serious.The feature of drought is that scope is wide, the time long, impact is far away.Therefore, a class disaster the most serious is lost in drought Ye Shi China meteorological disaster.In China, Storm Flood Disasters is the meteorological disaster being only second to drought.In addition, thunderbolt, sandstorm, frost, hail, mist calamity etc. are also the meteorological disasters that recurrent harm is larger in China.Within 2011, " General Office of the State Council is about the suggestion strengthening meteorological disaster monitoring and warning and Information issued work " explicitly points out, reinforcement meteorological disaster monitoring and warning and Information issued are the key links of the work of preventing and reducing natural disasters, and are the important foundations of defence and disaster mitigation loss.Accelerate to build meteorological disaster Real-Time Monitoring, shortly face early warning and medium-short term prediction seamless connection, early warning information is issued, propagate, receive the monitoring and warning system of quickness and high efficiency.Strive 2015, diastrous weather early warning information shifts to an earlier date and sends for more than 15-30 minutes, and meteorological disaster early warning information public coverage rate reaches more than 90%.And require that meteorological department accelerates information issuing system construction further.Actively push forward the construction of national Emergent Public Events information issuing system, form country, province and district, county's level Four are connected mutually, unified and standard meteorological disaster early warning information issue system, the many means realizing early warning information are comprehensively issued.Accelerate to advance the upgrading of national communication net commanding dispatching system perfect, Improving Public communication network emergency service ability.The needs that various localities and departments concerned want active adaption meteorological disaster early warning information fast to issue, accelerate meteorological disaster early warning information and receive transmission equipment Facilities Construction.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of climatic event methods of risk assessment and system, be intended to set up Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster index GIS database, build Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster unified model, the risk assessment operation system researching and developing great climatic event solves preventing and reducing natural disasters and practical problems in counter-measure formulation etc. about meteorological disaster for meteorological department and local government.
The present invention is achieved in that a kind of climatic event methods of risk assessment, and described climatic event methods of risk assessment comprises the following steps:
Compile meteorological data, the condition of a disaster data and industry sources;
Set up meteorological the condition of a disaster database, for the inquiry of user to the time of origin of history the condition of a disaster event, place, strength information, and provide frequency, the strength information statistics of history the condition of a disaster;
Utilize historical data to research and analyse, draw risk assessment parameter, set up forecasting and warning model;
Utilize analytical hierarchy process and expert graded to before meteorological disaster early warning and calamity, in calamity and risk assessment after calamity, gained appreciation information sends relevant Decision personnel in time with word, diagrammatic form.
Another object of the present invention is to the climatic event risk evaluating system providing a kind of described climatic event methods of risk assessment, described climatic event risk evaluating system comprises:
Optimum configurations subsystem, for arranging software parameters, the such as model coefficient of data input and output path, evaluation factor weight, analytical hierarchy process and expert graded;
Query statistic subsystem, for spatial dimension, the time range selected according to user, extracts corresponding disaster, assessment, meteorological element information;
Factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM, for depositing and can revising meteorological element, disaster, economy, people information;
Disaster Assessment subsystem, for utilizing analytical hierarchy process and expert graded to assess all kinds of meteorological disaster, and Output rusults;
Back-stage management subsystem, for carrying out authority Classification Management to system account.
Further, described optimum configurations subsystem comprises:
Administrative region setting unit, for adding administrative division information, delete, revise and inquire about;
Station information setting unit, for adding station information, delete, revise and inquire about;
Disaster registration setting unit, for the disaster scenarios it occurred history, such as disaster area, number, economic loss situation are carried out typing and are supplemented, and improve historical disaster data bank.
Further, described query statistic subsystem comprises:
History the condition of a disaster query unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about the condition of a disaster situation and grade that occurred in the past;
Meteorological element query statistic unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about and statistics meteorological element information;
Disaster-stricken situation statistic unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about and adds up disaster-stricken situation population, house, crops, livestock.
Further, described factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM comprises:
Flood inducing factors administrative unit, for obtaining Climatological mean yardstick factor data next month, according to climatology knowledge, carries out regretional analysis by climatic elements and the factor affecting its key element, and the climatic elements spatialization product utilizing optimization of region algorithm to obtain becoming more meticulous;
Pregnant calamity factor administrative unit, adjusts the tune Check result of Check system, pregnant calamity environmental assessment Modling model, all envirment factors of COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING process according to Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster model and meteorological disaster data, as the pregnant calamity environmental assessment result of assessment calamity kind;
Hazard-affected factor administrative unit, the menu " data normalization " adjusting Check Operation system setting and system to provide by meteorological disaster data and " raster symbol-base device " function allow factor data again calculate as final hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment result with the successful hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment result of calculating;
Calamity damage degree factor administrative unit, the key element of employing death toll, number of injured people, crops Disaster Area, direct economic loss complete and easy acquisition relative to indirect economic loss data is as the index evaluating the condition of a disaster, combine local ambient stable degree simultaneously, build disaster calamity damage degree index index, Disaster Economic Loss is evaluated.
Further, described Disaster Assessment subsystem, comprising: Droughts assessment unit, snow disaster assessment unit, Evaluation On The Flood Disasters unit, frost calamity assessment unit;
Droughts assessment unit: choose Rainfall Amount, prediction trend index, set up the index system of aridity risk assessment;
Snow disaster assessment unit, chooses history snow disaster, potential snow disaster, holds dangerous body physics exposure, susceptibility, answers calamity capacity index, set up the index system of snow disaster risk assessment;
Evaluation On The Flood Disasters unit, chooses quantity of precipitation, landform, the network of waterways, density of population index, sets up the index system of flooding risk assessment;
Frost calamity assessment unit, chooses topography and geomorphology, water system sediments index, sets up the index system of frost risk assessment.
Further, described back-stage management subsystem comprises:
System-based data setting unit, for inputoutput data path management;
Permissions base data setting unit, for authority classification and distribution;
Service management unit, for adding user profile, delete, revise and inquire about;
Role Management unit, according to the actual demand of user, self-defined user role;
System right management unit, for login account and role assignments System Privileges;
System log management unit, for automatic generating run record, is saved in specified path.
Further, described climatic event risk evaluating system is divided into application to represent layer, business system layer, data Layer, system platform;
Application represents layer, realizes the display of all kinds of business object in client, and provides user the business rule processed all kinds of business and affairs;
Business system layer, comprises weather monitoring, the management of the meteorological disaster factor, Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster, the condition of a disaster early warning, the large subsystem of back-stage management five;
Data Layer, as the data core of system, comprises Fundamental Geographic Information Database and Service Database; Store a large amount of data messages and mathematical logic with database mode, and complete the safety relevant with data, integrity control, the consistance of data and concurrent operations; Service Database is divided into: weather data storehouse, risk assessment database; According to the request that user sends from presentation layer, come into contacts with according to service logic and data Layer, complete access and the transmission of data;
System platform, as the development environment of system and running environment, comprises WebServer platform, WebGIS platform, JavaEE framework, operating system and data base management system (DBMS), and supporting hardware environment.
Another object of the present invention is to weather bureau's disaster early warning system that a kind of described climatic event methods of risk assessment is provided.
Another object of the present invention is to weather bureau's Disaster Assessment system that a kind of described climatic event methods of risk assessment is provided.。
Climatic event methods of risk assessment provided by the invention and system, the present invention can real-time reception meteorological measuring and numerical forecasting product, also weather bureau's history observational data and the condition of a disaster data can directly be called, set up the condition of a disaster database of real-time update, and provide statistics, be convenient to the information inquiry of user to historical disaster event.Utilize the condition of a disaster Database forecasting and warning pattern, and utilize analytical hierarchy process and expert graded to before meteorological disaster early warning and calamity, in calamity and risk assessment after calamity, gained information feeds back to user with the form of word and chart in time, meteorological department and local government can be served, provide preventing and reducing natural disasters and scientific basis in counter-measure formulation etc. about meteorological disaster in time.This system mainly contains following 6 features:
1. directly perceived, vivid, convenience, patterned statistical and analytical tool and display means are provided, make system possess powerful visual analyzing ability.
2. according to the feature of local meteorological disaster, set up the Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster model of a set of science, utilize this model and hold a conference or consultation, the visual early warning information of issue promptly and accurately.
3. safety certification and rights management mechanism are provided, for the information service platform of different rights user, realize the inquiry of line Information, download, conversion and service.
4. utilize the spatial analysis capacity of GIS, fully excavate the contact between Various types of data, the service efficiency of General Promotion systematic difference level and Various types of data.
5, the present invention adopts B/S structure very ripe at present, few partial transaction logic realizes in front end by this structure, major affairs logic realizes at server end, enormously simplify client computer load, user job interface is realized by browser, and whole system is safeguarded simpler, amendment and the upgrading of system only need be carried out at server end, client end interface is consistent, and simple, the easy left-hand seat of user operation, number of users is not limited.
6, because the present invention adopts B/S structure, user can be realized by generic browser, and does not need other any special software and the particular/special requirement to network.Along with the continuous popularization that this system is applied, use user to get more and more, adopt which, number of users can expand arbitrarily, and does not need maintain customer end, and what greatly reduce system administers and maintains cost.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the climatic event methods of risk assessment that the embodiment of the present invention provides.
Fig. 2 is the structural representation of the climatic event risk evaluating system that the embodiment of the present invention provides;
In figure: 1, optimum configurations subsystem; 2, query statistic subsystem; 3, factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM; 4, Disaster Assessment subsystem; 5, back-stage management subsystem.
Fig. 3 is the platform logical organization schematic diagram of the climatic event risk evaluating system that the embodiment of the present invention provides.
Embodiment
In order to make object of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly understand, below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein only in order to explain the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention.
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, structure of the present invention and application principle are explained in detail.
As shown in Figure 1, the climatic event methods of risk assessment of the embodiment of the present invention comprises the following steps:
Compile meteorological data, the condition of a disaster data and industry sources;
Set up meteorological the condition of a disaster database, for the inquiry of user to the information such as time of origin, place, intensity of history the condition of a disaster event, and provide frequency, the strength information statistics of history the condition of a disaster;
Utilize historical data to research and analyse, draw risk assessment parameter, set up forecasting and warning model;
Utilize analytical hierarchy process and expert graded to before meteorological disaster early warning and calamity, in calamity and risk assessment after calamity, gained appreciation information sends relevant Decision personnel in time with word, diagrammatic form.
Utilize this area's weather observation data of nearly 30 years, the condition of a disaster data and industry sources (such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, disaster-stricken number, disaster area, economic loss etc.), set up the condition of a disaster database, and add up-to-date observational data warehouse-in in real time; Statistical study is carried out to the condition of a disaster (time of origin, the frequency, Disaster degree) of this area in history, draws this area's meteorological disaster feature; The parameters utilizing the condition of a disaster database research wind direction to assess, sets up forecasting and warning model, and before carrying out the calamity of meteorological disaster, in calamity and hazards entropy, gained information is issued user in time with the form such as word, chart.
As shown in Figure 2, the climatic event risk evaluating system of the embodiment of the present invention is by 5 sub-System's composition: optimum configurations subsystem 1, query statistic subsystem 2, factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM 3, Disaster Assessment subsystem 4, back-stage management subsystem 5.
Optimum configurations subsystem 1, comprising: administrative region setting unit, station information setting unit, disaster registration setting unit.
Administrative region setting unit, for adding administrative division information, delete, revise and inquire about;
Station information setting unit, for adding station information, delete, revise and inquire about;
Disaster registration setting unit, for the disaster scenarios it occurred history, such as disaster area, number, economic loss situation are carried out typing and are supplemented, and improve historical disaster data bank.
Query statistic subsystem 2, comprising: history the condition of a disaster query unit, meteorological element query statistic unit, disaster-stricken situation statistic unit.
History the condition of a disaster query unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about the condition of a disaster situation and grade that occurred in the past;
Meteorological element query statistic unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about and statistics meteorological element information;
Disaster-stricken situation statistic unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about and adds up disaster-stricken situation population, house, crops, livestock.
Factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM 3, comprising: Flood inducing factors administrative unit, pregnant calamity factor administrative unit, hazard-affected factor administrative unit, calamity damage degree factor administrative unit.
Flood inducing factors administrative unit, obtains according to meteorological measuring computing, and for larger survey region, as province, the administrative scope of city-level, meteorological observation website is more, and distribution all hooks, and has more satisfactory effect; If survey region is less, as scope administrative below city-level, inner meteorological observation website is less, and interpolation result is unsatisfactory.Native system employs following fined method: the whole station datas collecting county and place province of county, obtain Climatological mean yardstick factor data next month, according to climatology knowledge, climatic elements and the factor affecting its key element are carried out regretional analysis, and the climatic elements spatialization product utilizing optimization of region algorithm to obtain becoming more meticulous.In the middle of the assessment of Flood inducing factors danger, be that process computing is carried out to the Meteorological Disaster Indexes customized.Some Meteorological Disaster Indexes and sea level elevation, longitude, dimension etc. are factor-related, then utilize the scheme of becoming more meticulous to obtain meticulous Flood inducing factors; And some index is as Windy Days, do not have clear and definite Effects of Factors, then according to the desired value of meteorological site, the spatial interpolation methods selected according to user carries out spatialization.In the middle of the assessment of Flood inducing factors danger, Meteorological Disaster Indexes is obtained by meteorological disaster Investigation on Data system investigation result, user also can select meteorological index according to oneself needing, can only with a meteorological index assessment, also can comprehensive multiple index assess, coefficient can need to adopt expert estimation mode or analytical hierarchy process to obtain according to user.
Pregnant calamity factor administrative unit: become more meticulous in evaluating system in the meteorological disaster risk based on GIS, the tune Check result of Check system is adjusted according to Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster model and meteorological disaster data, pregnant calamity environmental assessment Modling model, the all envirment factors of COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING process, as the pregnant calamity environmental assessment result of assessment calamity kind.Pregnant calamity environmental assessment is that calamity source becomes more meticulous a ring of outbalance in assessment, indispensable effect is had to the assessment that becomes more meticulous of last calamity source, current most researchist is in the middle of the research of meteorological disaster evaluation, more concentrates on Flood inducing factors aspect, less to the consideration of pregnant calamity environmental sensitivity, have ignored survey region terrain feature and physical environment to the influence of disaster, the result of such assessment is inadequate scientific and precise, because most of meteorological disaster is the interactional result of meteorological element and underlying surface.Because the pregnant calamity Environmental Factors of different calamity kind and affect character and be not quite similar, system provides common pregnant calamity Environmental Factors.Have sea level elevation, the gradient, topographic relief amplitude, geology Yi Fadu, water system, the network of waterways etc., positive weighing factor be on the occasion of, negative influence weight is negative value.The pregnant calamity Environmental Factors of some calamity kind may be more than that, because this system provides User Defined function, user can select the envirment factor data of Grid form, and give respective weights according to formula Modling model, computing obtains the pregnant calamity environmental sensitivity result of this calamity kind.
Hazard-affected factor administrative unit: become more meticulous in evaluating system in the meteorological disaster risk based on GIS, hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment is the important ring that embodiment system reaches the assessment meteorological disaster risk that becomes more meticulous, in hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment with socioeconomic data spatialization method for supporting, with GIS spatial analysis functions for technological means realizes becoming more meticulous requirement.The hazard-affected body factor adjusts Check system to adjust Check result to obtain by meteorological disaster data, and regular factor generally comprises population distribution, economic distribution and soil vulnerability data, may have the hazard-affected body factors such as buildings distribution, crops distribution in addition.The factor data that user can utilize two kinds of methods to allow system not provide participates in calculating, and one adjusts Check Operation system setting by meteorological disaster data; A kind of is that the menu " data normalization " provided by system allows factor data again calculate as final hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment result with the successful hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment result of calculating with " raster symbol-base device " function.Assessment models is determined according to formula, and coefficient can need to adopt expert estimation mode or analytical hierarchy process to obtain according to user.
Calamity damage degree factor administrative unit: native system adopts the key element of the relative complete and easy acquisition of data such as death toll, number of injured people, crops Disaster Area, direct economic loss and indirect economic loss as the index evaluating the condition of a disaster, combine local ambient stable degree simultaneously, build disaster calamity damage degree index index, Disaster Economic Loss is evaluated.This choose targets has certain representativeness, so that the disaster that different time and different regions occur has comparability.
Disaster Assessment subsystem 4, comprising: Droughts assessment unit, snow disaster assessment unit, Evaluation On The Flood Disasters unit, frost calamity assessment unit.
Droughts assessment unit: arid is the most common in agricultural weather is also the most serious disaster, and its generation is not only relevant with quantity of precipitation is also relevant to many factors such as gas epidemic disaster, evaporation, soil moisture contents.Native system, from causing calamity danger and holding dangerous body fragility two aspects, have chosen the index such as Rainfall Amount, prediction trend, sets up the index system of aridity risk assessment.
Snow disaster assessment unit: snow disaster, also known as white calamity, is the spontaneous phenomenon because long-time a large amount of snowfall causes accumulated snow on a large scale to cause disaster.It is a kind of climate damage to animal husbandry that Chinese pastoral area often occurs, and also has a strong impact on lifeline engineering such as even destroying traffic, communication, transmission line of electricity simultaneously, threatens to the life security of herdsman and life.Native system is dangerous and hold dangerous body fragility two aspects from causing calamity, have chosen history snow disaster, potential snow disaster, holds dangerous body physics exposure, susceptibility, answers the indexs such as calamity ability, set up the index system of snow disaster risk assessment.
Evaluation On The Flood Disasters unit: flood is divided into " big flood " and " damage caused by waterlogging " two kinds." big flood ", refer to heavy rain, heavy rain cause water channel torrent, Freshets roar down from the mountains, flooding, flood farmland, damage environment and various facilities etc." damage caused by waterlogging ", refers to that dilutional hyponatremia or the ponding too concentrating or return pulp-water too much to cause cause disaster.Its disaster and natural cause and social factor in close relations.Native system, from causing calamity danger and holding dangerous body fragility two aspects, have chosen the indexs such as quantity of precipitation, landform, the network of waterways, the density of population, sets up the index system of flooding risk assessment.
Frost calamity assessment unit: frost refers in Growing Season of Crops, because the temperature of plant, soil surface and near-earth gas-bearing formation drops to below O'C, causes plant to suffer the phenomenon of freeze injury or death.According to the difference of weather situation, frost can be divided into radiation cooling type frost, advection cooling type frost and hybrid cooling type frost.Native system, from causing calamity danger and holding dangerous body fragility two aspects, have chosen the index such as topography and geomorphology, water system sediments, sets up the index system of frost risk assessment.
Back-stage management subsystem 5, comprising: system-based data setting unit, permissions base data setting unit, service management unit, Role Management unit, System right management unit, system log management unit.
System-based data setting unit: system inputoutput data path management.
Permissions base data setting unit: System Privileges classification and distribution.
Service management unit: after login system, " data management " is clicked on the feature navigator hurdle above the page, then the column of on the left side clicks " subscriber information management ".Can user profile be added, deletes, revises and be inquired about in this window.
Role Management unit: according to the actual demand of user, self-defined user role
System right management unit: to login account and role assignments System Privileges.
System log management unit: the automatic generating run record of system, is saved in specified path.
Optimum configurations subsystem 1, for arranging software parameters, the such as model coefficient of data input and output path, evaluation factor weight, analytical hierarchy process and expert graded;
Query statistic subsystem 2, for spatial dimension, the time range selected according to user, extracts corresponding disaster, assessment, meteorological element information;
Factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM 3, for depositing and can revising meteorological element, disaster, economy, people information;
Disaster Assessment subsystem 4, for utilizing analytical hierarchy process and expert graded to assess all kinds of meteorological disaster, and Output rusults;
Back-stage management subsystem 5, for carrying out authority Classification Management to system account.
According to system requirements, in conjunction with the holistic approach to business, can draw overall system framed structure as shown in Figure 3, whole system is divided into following 4 levels: application represents layer, business system layer, data Layer, system platform.Application represents layer, is that system and user directly carry out alternately, supports two kinds of modes at present: based on browser and mobile phone A PP application; Application service layer is the function situation that whole system can realize, and comprises weather monitoring, the management of the meteorological disaster factor, Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster, the condition of a disaster early warning, the large subsystem of back-stage management five; Data Layer is as the data core of system, and mainly comprise Fundamental Geographic Information Database and Service Database, wherein Service Database is divided into: weather data storehouse, risk assessment database; System platform, as the development environment of system and running environment, mainly includes WebServer platform, WebGIS platform, JavaEE framework, operating system and data base management system (DBMS), and supporting hardware environment.
Data Layer: this layer stores a large amount of data messages and mathematical logic with database mode, and complete the safety relevant with data, integrity control, the consistance of data and concurrent operations.
Business Logic: this layer is the core of system, the request that it sends from presentation layer according to user is come into contacts with according to service logic and data Layer, completes access and the transmission of data.
Presentation layer: this layer mainly realizes the display of all kinds of business object in client, and user is provided the business rule processed all kinds of business and affairs.
The database of present system comprises dictionary table, administrative division table, weather information table, risk assessment record, studies and judges record, early warning analysis table and mapping table etc.
1, data object naming rule
In database structural design, table name is with T beginning and Q_ beginning, and view starts with V, to show differentiation.Wherein the table of T_ beginning is the database table of early warning analysis, and the table of Q_ beginning is the table of weather data.
" whether effective " field in database table structure, 1 represents it is that 0 represents no.
2, Database rule
2.1, database SID
Database SID is the symbol of unique designation database, and name length can not more than 5 characters.For the database SID called after LAND of this project.
2.2, database SGA configures
Database SGA can adopt manual configuration or by physical memory proportional arrangement, adopt configuration mode in proportion in the database initial design stage, revises SGA in actual applications by system adjustment and optimization mode.
3, database character set is selected
Adopt the Chinese character set of acquiescence.
4, Database System Tables space matching
System table space size about 1G, except the data of store data database data dictionary, other data must not be stored in system table space.
5, database table spatial design
When table space size is less than operating system to maximum file restriction, table space is made up of a file.If when table space size is greater than operating system to maximum file restriction, this table space is made up of multiple data file.The maximum 2G of file of general windows32 position system, the maximum 128G of unix system system file of 64, but also to note the file size that file layout sets, suggestion is 2G to the maximum.Table space adopts local way to manage.For the table space that system uses, for the ease of daily monitoring, therefore do not consider the mode adopting automatic expansion.
6, the design of index, function etc.
(1) simple index
Prefix is IDX_.Index name should be: the field name of prefix+table name+formation.If the formation field of composite index is more, then only comprises first character section, and add sequence number.Table name can remove prefix.
(2) major key index
Prefix is IDX_PK_.Index name should be: the major key field name of prefix+table name+formation, and when creating table, standby usingindex specifies major key index attributes.
(3) unique index
Prefix is IDX_UK_.Index name should be: the field name of prefix+table name+formation.
(4) outer key index
Prefix is IDX_FK_.Index name should be: the foreign key field name of prefix+table name+formation.
(5) materialized view
Prefix is MV_.By business operation named entity view.
(6) storing process
Prefix is Proc_.By business operation name storing process.
(7) trigger
Prefix is Trig_.Trigger name Ying Shi: prefix+table name+trigger name.
(8) function
Prefix is Func_.By business operation name function.
(9) sequence
Prefix is Seq_.Name by service attribute.
7, safety Design
(1) default user is managed
In production environment, necessary strict control sys and system user, must revise its password default, forbid with this user's building database application.
(2) database level user right design
According to application demand, different access privileges must be designed.Comprise application system leading subscriber, domestic consumer etc., set up different application roles according to business demand.
When user accesses other user object, should conduct interviews by creating synonym object synonym.
(3) role and authority
Determine the operating right of each role to database table, as establishment, retrieval, renewal, deletion etc.Each role has the authority just can finished the work.When applying again for user distributes role, then the authority of each user equal he the authority sum of the role that holds concurrently.
(4) application layer user design
The user account password of application layer can not be identical with database, prevents user's direct control database.User can only log on application software by account, by accessible with application software database, and does not have other approach operating database.
Attribute list is summarized
Database of the present invention comprises dictionary table, administrative division table, weather information table, studies and judges record, early warning analysis table and mapping table etc.
| Sequence number | Entity title | Entity type | Major key |
| 1 | Multimedia message | independent | Multimedia message id |
| 2 | The condition of a disaster advanced warning grade | independent | The condition of a disaster advanced warning grade |
| 3 | The condition of a disaster early warning scheme | dependent | Draft is numbered, the early warning number of editing and releasing |
| 4 | The condition of a disaster early warning figure | independent | The condition of a disaster early warning figure numbers |
| 5 | Staff | independent | Person number |
| 6 | Administrative region | independent | Zone number |
| 7 | Monitoring time is tieed up | independent | Time dimension id |
| 8 | Quantity of precipitation is predicted | independent | Sequence number |
| 9 | Model bank | independent | Pattern number |
| 10 | Platform parameters | independent | Platform parameters ID |
| 11 | Weather chart valut | independent | Picture number |
| 12 | Weather forecast scheme | independent | Forecast serial number |
| 13 | Weather forecast figure | independent | Weather forecast figure numbers |
| 14 | Meteorological Automatic Station | independent | Automatic Weather Station is numbered |
| 15 | Regional automatic station meteorological element | independent | Identifier ID |
| 16 | Small towns early warning information | independent | Small towns early warning information |
| 17 | Study and judge record | dependent | Forecast serial number, draft is numbered, the early warning number of editing and releasing |
| 18 | Hidden danger point | independent | Hidden danger point is numbered |
| 19 | Hidden danger type | independent | Hidden danger type |
| 20 | User profile | independent | Customs Assigned Number |
| 21 | Early warning is edited and released | independent | The early warning number of editing and releasing |
| 22 | Record is disposed in early warning | independent | Alert status id |
| 23 | Responsibility type | independent | Responsibility type coding |
| 24 | Person liable | independent | Person liable numbers |
| 25 | Automatic Weather Station combined data | dependent | Time dimension id, automatic Weather Station is numbered |
The foregoing is only preferred embodiment of the present invention, not in order to limit the present invention, all any amendments done within the spirit and principles in the present invention, equivalent replacement and improvement etc., all should be included within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a climatic event methods of risk assessment, is characterized in that, described climatic event methods of risk assessment comprises the following steps:
Compile meteorological data, the condition of a disaster data and industry sources;
Set up meteorological the condition of a disaster database, for the inquiry of user to the time of origin of history the condition of a disaster event, place, strength information, and provide frequency, the strength information statistics of history the condition of a disaster;
Utilize historical data to research and analyse, draw risk assessment parameter, set up forecasting and warning model;
Utilize analytical hierarchy process and expert graded to before meteorological disaster early warning and calamity, in calamity and risk assessment after calamity, gained appreciation information sends relevant Decision personnel in time with word, diagrammatic form.
2. a climatic event risk evaluating system for climatic event methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described climatic event risk evaluating system comprises:
Optimum configurations subsystem, for arranging software parameters, the such as model coefficient of data input and output path, evaluation factor weight, analytical hierarchy process and expert graded;
Query statistic subsystem, for spatial dimension, the time range selected according to user, extracts corresponding disaster, assessment, meteorological element information;
Factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM, for depositing and can revising meteorological element, disaster, economy, people information;
Disaster Assessment subsystem, for utilizing analytical hierarchy process and expert graded to assess all kinds of meteorological disaster, and Output rusults;
Back-stage management subsystem, for carrying out authority Classification Management to system account.
3. climatic event risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 2, it is characterized in that, described optimum configurations subsystem comprises:
Administrative region setting unit, for adding administrative division information, delete, revise and inquire about;
Station information setting unit, for adding station information, delete, revise and inquire about;
Disaster registration setting unit, for the disaster scenarios it occurred history, such as disaster area, number, economic loss situation are carried out typing and are supplemented, and improve historical disaster data bank.
4. climatic event risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 2, it is characterized in that, described query statistic subsystem comprises:
History the condition of a disaster query unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about the condition of a disaster situation and grade that occurred in the past;
Meteorological element query statistic unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about and statistics meteorological element information;
Disaster-stricken situation statistic unit, for according to querying condition, inquires about and adds up disaster-stricken situation population, house, crops, livestock.
5. climatic event risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 2, it is characterized in that, described factor ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM comprises:
Flood inducing factors administrative unit, for obtaining Climatological mean yardstick factor data next month, according to climatology knowledge, carries out regretional analysis by climatic elements and the factor affecting its key element, and the climatic elements spatialization product utilizing optimization of region algorithm to obtain becoming more meticulous;
Pregnant calamity factor administrative unit, adjusts the tune Check result of Check system, pregnant calamity environmental assessment Modling model, all envirment factors of COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING process according to Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster model and meteorological disaster data, as the pregnant calamity environmental assessment result of assessment calamity kind;
Hazard-affected factor administrative unit, the menu " data normalization " adjusting Check Operation system setting and system to provide by meteorological disaster data and " raster symbol-base device " function allow factor data again calculate as final hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment result with the successful hazard-affected body vulnerability assessment result of calculating;
Calamity damage degree factor administrative unit, the key element of employing death toll, number of injured people, crops Disaster Area, direct economic loss complete and easy acquisition relative to indirect economic loss data is as the index evaluating the condition of a disaster, combine local ambient stable degree simultaneously, build disaster calamity damage degree index index, Disaster Economic Loss is evaluated.
6. climatic event risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 2, it is characterized in that, described Disaster Assessment subsystem, comprising: Droughts assessment unit, snow disaster assessment unit, Evaluation On The Flood Disasters unit, frost calamity assessment unit;
Droughts assessment unit: choose Rainfall Amount, prediction trend index, set up the index system of aridity risk assessment;
Snow disaster assessment unit, chooses history snow disaster, potential snow disaster, holds dangerous body physics exposure, susceptibility, answers calamity capacity index, set up the index system of snow disaster risk assessment;
Evaluation On The Flood Disasters unit, chooses quantity of precipitation, landform, the network of waterways, density of population index, sets up the index system of flooding risk assessment;
Frost calamity assessment unit, chooses topography and geomorphology, water system sediments index, sets up the index system of frost risk assessment.
7. climatic event risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 2, it is characterized in that, described back-stage management subsystem comprises:
System-based data setting unit, for inputoutput data path management;
Permissions base data setting unit, for authority classification and distribution;
Service management unit, for adding user profile, delete, revise and inquire about;
Role Management unit, according to the actual demand of user, self-defined user role;
System right management unit, for login account and role assignments System Privileges;
System log management unit, for automatic generating run record, is saved in specified path.
8. climatic event risk evaluating system as claimed in claim 2, it is characterized in that, described climatic event risk evaluating system is divided into application to represent layer, business system layer, data Layer, system platform;
Application represents layer, realizes the display of all kinds of business object in client, and provides user the business rule processed all kinds of business and affairs;
Business system layer, comprises weather monitoring, the management of the meteorological disaster factor, Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster, the condition of a disaster early warning, the large subsystem of back-stage management five;
Data Layer, as the data core of system, comprises Fundamental Geographic Information Database and Service Database; Store a large amount of data messages and mathematical logic with database mode, and complete the safety relevant with data, integrity control, the consistance of data and concurrent operations; Service Database is divided into: weather data storehouse, risk assessment database; According to the request that user sends from presentation layer, come into contacts with according to service logic and data Layer, complete access and the transmission of data;
System platform, as the development environment of system and running environment, comprises WebServer platform, WebGIS platform, JavaEE framework, operating system and data base management system (DBMS), and supporting hardware environment.
9. weather bureau's disaster early warning system of a climatic event methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1.
10. weather bureau's Disaster Assessment system of a climatic event methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1.
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