CN110488298A - Hail method for early warning based on each scale feature - Google Patents
Hail method for early warning based on each scale feature Download PDFInfo
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- CN110488298A CN110488298A CN201910811255.9A CN201910811255A CN110488298A CN 110488298 A CN110488298 A CN 110488298A CN 201910811255 A CN201910811255 A CN 201910811255A CN 110488298 A CN110488298 A CN 110488298A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01S—RADIO DIRECTION-FINDING; RADIO NAVIGATION; DETERMINING DISTANCE OR VELOCITY BY USE OF RADIO WAVES; LOCATING OR PRESENCE-DETECTING BY USE OF THE REFLECTION OR RERADIATION OF RADIO WAVES; ANALOGOUS ARRANGEMENTS USING OTHER WAVES
- G01S13/00—Systems using the reflection or reradiation of radio waves, e.g. radar systems; Analogous systems using reflection or reradiation of waves whose nature or wavelength is irrelevant or unspecified
- G01S13/88—Radar or analogous systems specially adapted for specific applications
- G01S13/95—Radar or analogous systems specially adapted for specific applications for meteorological use
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01S—RADIO DIRECTION-FINDING; RADIO NAVIGATION; DETERMINING DISTANCE OR VELOCITY BY USE OF RADIO WAVES; LOCATING OR PRESENCE-DETECTING BY USE OF THE REFLECTION OR RERADIATION OF RADIO WAVES; ANALOGOUS ARRANGEMENTS USING OTHER WAVES
- G01S7/00—Details of systems according to groups G01S13/00, G01S15/00, G01S17/00
- G01S7/02—Details of systems according to groups G01S13/00, G01S15/00, G01S17/00 of systems according to group G01S13/00
- G01S7/41—Details of systems according to groups G01S13/00, G01S15/00, G01S17/00 of systems according to group G01S13/00 using analysis of echo signal for target characterisation; Target signature; Target cross-section
- G01S7/411—Identification of targets based on measurements of radar reflectivity
- G01S7/412—Identification of targets based on measurements of radar reflectivity based on a comparison between measured values and known or stored values
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01S—RADIO DIRECTION-FINDING; RADIO NAVIGATION; DETERMINING DISTANCE OR VELOCITY BY USE OF RADIO WAVES; LOCATING OR PRESENCE-DETECTING BY USE OF THE REFLECTION OR RERADIATION OF RADIO WAVES; ANALOGOUS ARRANGEMENTS USING OTHER WAVES
- G01S7/00—Details of systems according to groups G01S13/00, G01S15/00, G01S17/00
- G01S7/02—Details of systems according to groups G01S13/00, G01S15/00, G01S17/00 of systems according to group G01S13/00
- G01S7/41—Details of systems according to groups G01S13/00, G01S15/00, G01S17/00 of systems according to group G01S13/00 using analysis of echo signal for target characterisation; Target signature; Target cross-section
- G01S7/415—Identification of targets based on measurements of movement associated with the target
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of hail prediction techniques based on each scale feature, comprising the following steps: carries out Potential to Circulation；It proposes convection current potentiality, analyzes θse500‑700, steam Vertical helicity, heating power shear advection parameter, moist potential vorticity and steam energy normal helicity, strong convection development is collectively promoted with the presence or absence of water vapor condition, power lifting and instability condition with diagnosis prediction area；It proposes strong convection potentiality, judges that potentiality occurs for the hail of Target area by SI index, BLI index, dew-point deficit and vertical wind shear；0 DEG C of layer height diagnosis amount is substituted into and obtains 45dBZ echo high threshold value in the linear equation of 45dBZ echo high and 0 DEG C of layer height, is proposed that hail early warning if actual ghosts heights of roofs is more than or equal to 45dBZ echo high threshold value.Many-sided multiple dimensioned occurrence and development feature for having considered hail of the invention, using a variety of data, using its feature of the various ways a more complete description such as Potential, diagnostic analysis, with more acurrate prediction hail.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to meteorological data monitoring management technical field more particularly to a kind of hail based on each scale feature are pre-
Alarm method.
Background technique
Meteorological disaster not only influences agricultural production, people's lives, but also jeopardizes the people's lives and property safety.Both at home and abroad
Scholar it is many to the research of hail, but on short forecasting, hail is still a kind of disastrous day for being difficult to accurate forecast
Gas.The short-term of hail, nowcasting and monitoring and warning are carried out, carries out hail suppression drinking water project in time, reduces economy caused by hail
Loss is still a great problem that worker in meteorology faces instantly.In order to preferably carry out hail suppression work, effective section is found
Learn Artificial Hail Suppression method for early warning；It is mentioned by analysis hail shooting day each scale feature and Echo Characteristics, summary and induction characteristic feature
Refining hail distinguishing indexes are one of prediction very important means of hail.
Now, multiple areas have done many researchs for hail and have also obtained some achievements, and research is mainly paid attention to pair
The climate characteristic of hail, structure feature, recognizer analysis.Radar return is relied primarily on for the method for early warning of hail, is utilized
The method for early warning for the diagnosis amount combination echo character that each scale feature is extracted is less；Analysis for diagnosis amount is mostly statistics
Development and change feature, minority obtain threshold value for forecasting and warning in conjunction with each scale dependent diagnostic measure feature.
There is researcher to combine helicity and other diagnosis amounts, the occurrence and development of analyzing and diagnosing strong convection, such as can
Measure helicity, exactly helicity combined and applied with the convective available potential energy of reflection energy effect, reflection power with
The joint effect that energy develops strong convective weather has indicative significance to the forecast of strong storm and its type.There is researcher
Relationship of the helicity as a kinetic parameter and thermal field is analyzed, obtains to turn with being considered as surface relative helicity
The conclusion etc. of one measurement of wind or practical wind-induced temperature advection.These are to research Rainfall Disaster weather and carry out business
Forecast plays the role of particularly important.But mainly there are three primary conditions for hail shooting: water vapor condition, dynamic condition, instability condition.
Helicity is the more significant dynamical diagnosis amount of an effect, it is combined with water vapor condition, energy condition, to strong right
The indicative function of stream occurrence and development may be more pronounced.
It is mostly that the strong convective weathers such as hail hair is obtained by routine meteorological data meanwhile in the existing research to hail
Raw potential trend.Also the air motion situation of with good grounds satellite data reflection differentiates the occurrence and development of hail, but inverting skill
Art and timeliness are difficult to forecast the generation of hail in advance.In existing hail method for early warning research, Doppler radar is that hail is visited
It surveys and the important tool of early warning, Doppler radar has stronger monitoring capability and timeliness, many experts and scholars
Echo character, the movement routine of hail weather are summarized using it.But Doppler radar is chiefly used in having the pre- of hail spawn
Early warning is reported, the potentiality early warning before hail spawn is also needed each scale feature is combined to analyze.For the benefit of Doppler radar
With being not limited in the qualitative analyses such as the characteristic feature of echo.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is that providing a kind of hail early warning based on each scale feature to solve the above-mentioned problems
Method.
To achieve the goals above, the present invention provides a kind of hail prediction technique based on each scale feature, including following
Step:
S1 carries out Potential to Circulation: determining whether there is sulculus, if it exists sulculus, it is determined that Target area is
No presence can trigger the ground triggering system of convection current and can develop the high-altitude maintenance system of convection current, then propose convection current if it exists
Potentiality；
S2 utilizes diagnostic analysis module analysis θ if there are convection current potentialities for Target arease500-700, steam Vertical helicity,
Heating power shear advection parameter, moist potential vorticity and steam energy normal helicity whether there is water vapor condition, power with diagnosis prediction area
Lifting and instability condition collectively promote strong convection development, then propose strong convection potentiality if it exists；
S3, if Target area there are strong convection potentiality, by SI index, BLI index, dew-point deficit and vertical wind shear come
Judge that potentiality occurs for the hail of Target area；
S4 further carries out echo analysis to it: 0 DEG C of layer height is examined if there are hails, and potentiality occurs in prediction area
Disconnected amount, which substitutes into, obtains 45dBZ echo high threshold value in the linear equation of 45dBZ echo high and 0 DEG C of layer height, if actual ghosts top
Height is more than or equal to 45dBZ echo high threshold value and is then proposed that hail early warning；
Hail early warning can be directly proposed when occurring Strong convecting echo feature during echo analysis.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
1, the hail prediction technique of the present invention based on each scale feature, it is many-sided multiple dimensioned to have considered hail
Occurrence and development feature, using a variety of data, using the various ways a more complete description such as Potential, diagnostic analysis, it is special
Sign, with more acurrate forecasting hail；
2, each physical quantity threshold value extracted in S2, S3 step by the analysis of each scale feature is under special Circulation
Can be directly used in diagnostic analysis, subjective form analysis become to objectify, the threshold range of quantization reduce different people it
Between subjective error, it is more convenient, succinct, accurate；
3, a possibility that S4 step is not merely with hail generation is determined according to the traditional approach of Typical return feature early warning,
Also using the relationship between 45dBZ echo high and 0 DEG C of layer height, diagnostic analysis, echo are carried out with 45dBZ echo high threshold value
A possibility that means judgement hail that feature is combined with threshold value occurs is more simple and efficient compared to common situation analysis.
Detailed description of the invention
The drawings are intended to provide a further understanding of the invention, and constitutes part of specification, with following tool
Body embodiment is used to explain the present invention together, but is not construed as limiting the invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the hail method for early warning of the present invention based on each scale feature；
Fig. 2 is the figure of case synoptic analysis described in specific embodiment；
Fig. 3 is the θ of case described in specific embodimentse, steam Vertical helicity, heating power shear advection parameter, wet position
Whirlpool component MPV1, MPV2 distribution map；
Fig. 4 is the energy normal of case steam described in specific embodiment helicity in 700hPa distribution situation；
Fig. 5 is case reflectivity described in specific embodiment and its sectional view, radial velocity and its sectional view.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with attached drawing, detailed description of the preferred embodiments.It should be understood that this place is retouched
The specific embodiment stated is merely to illustrate and explain the present invention, and is not intended to restrict the invention.
As shown in Figure 1, the hail prediction technique of the present invention based on each scale feature, comprising the following steps:
S1 carries out Potential to Circulation: determining whether there is sulculus, if it exists sulculus, it is determined that Target area is
No presence can trigger the ground triggering system of convection current and can develop the high-altitude maintenance system of convection current, then propose convection current if it exists
Potentiality.
The step mainly pays attention to analyze its trigger mechanism and support mechanism, observation Target area with the presence or absence of ground main line,
System is triggered on the ground such as Surface concentrated line, sharp side, and high-altitude maintains system interaction dimension with the presence or absence of shear, torrent, low slot etc.
Hold the deep development of convection current.
As shown in Fig. 2, case synoptic analysis illustrates 200hPa, 500hPa, 700hPa synoptic analysis and T-logp figure, it is real
Line is the line of rabbet joint, and yellow area is dry area, and double solid line is shear line, and orange arrows are high-level jet stream, and red arrow is low-level jet stream,
Blue region is wet area.There are ground main lines and Surface concentrated line, shear, torrent, low slot for case.It is proposed that case is latent with convection current
Gesture.
S2 utilizes diagnostic analysis module analysis θ if there are convection current potentialities for Target arease500-700, steam Vertical helicity,
Heating power shear advection parameter, moist potential vorticity and steam energy normal helicity whether there is advantageous steam item with diagnosis prediction area
Part, power lifting condition and instability condition collectively promote strong convection development, then propose strong convection potentiality if it exists.
Pass through θse500-700, steam Vertical helicity, heating power shear advection parameter judge the Target area with the presence or absence of having respectively
Instability condition, water vapor condition and the power occurred conducive to strong convection is lifted condition, passes through moist potential vorticity, steam energy normal spiral
Degree is lifted whether condition collectively promotes strong convection to judge instability condition, water vapor condition and power.
The existing judgement of Target area instability condition: θse500-700Actual value is between -10~0 DEG C.
The judgement of Target area water vapor condition: steam Vertical helicity > 0, steam Vertical helicity are Vertical helicity and water
Vapour related physical quantity is than the diagnosis amount that wet combination obtains, and determining Target area, there are the water vapor conditions for being conducive to strong convection generation.
Steam Vertical helicity preferably embodies being delivered up for steam, will to the indicative function of precipitation occurrence and development
It is more obvious.Before hail occurs 6 hours in analytical calculation convection process, estimation range steam Vertical helicity is greater than zero, and pre-
Survey region at a high value region when propose that it be under advantageous water vapor condition, promote convection current develop.
In above formula, HpFor steam Vertical helicity, ω is the speed of vertical direction in isobaric coordinate system, and ρ is density, and q is
It is wind speed than wet, v.
Target area power is lifted the existing judgement of condition: heating power shear advection parameter > 0, and the big value region of Target area positive value
The lower layer in troposphere.
Heating power shear advection parameter is the vertical shear of Horizontal Winds, the horizontal gradient of broad sense position temperature, horizontal divergence, broad sense
The kinetic factors such as the vertical gradient of position temperature and thermodynamics factor organically combine, and can synthetically characterize hail shooting during hailstorm
The dynamical structure feature of ground overhead wind field vertical shear and low level convergence, upper level divergent.Its exceptional value is positive value, works as diagnostic region
Domain heating power shear advection parameter > 0, and Target area determines that it is in advantageous when high level region is located at lower layer in troposphere
Under the conditions of power lifting.
In above formula, J is heating power shear advection parameter, and u, v are respectively X-direction, the speed of Y-direction point in isobaric coordinate system
Amount, θ * are broad sense position temperature.
Instability condition, water vapor condition and power lifting condition collectively promote the judgement of strong convection generation: when Target area pair
Low layer moist potential vorticity MPV1<0, MPV2>0 in fluid layer, Target area are the intersection regions in convective instability area Yu just wet baroclinic zone；
When steam energy normal helicity is negative value in Target area, Target area overhead low value center is located at low layer in troposphere
When, steam energy normal helicity is Vertical helicity and steam related physical quantity than wet, energy related physical quantity broad sense position temperature
In conjunction with obtained diagnosis amount.
It is comprehensively anti-using steam energy normal helicity, moist potential vorticity after having advantageous heat power, water vapor condition
Reflect heat power attribute and the effect of steam of atmosphere.The variation of moist potential vorticity can reflect the reinforcement and decrease of symmetric instability, to strong
The generation of convection weather has apparent indicative significance.When in the troposphere of estimation range low layer be convective instability area (MPV1 <
0)；Upper troposphere is weak steady area.Target area is located at pair that positive wet baroclinic zone (MPV2 > 0) is overlapped with convective instability area
Region is answered, the development of release, the convection current of instable energy is conducive to.When steam energy normal helicity diagnostic region be negative value,
And diagnostic region overhead low value center illustrates that the advantageous steam in diagnostic region, power, instability condition are total when being located at low layer in troposphere
Promote strong convection development under same-action.
In above formula, MPV is moist potential vorticity, and ζ is vertical vorticity, and f is that ground turns parameter, θseFor pseudoequivalent potential temperature.
In above formula, MpFor steam energy normal helicity, it is broad sense position temperature that q, which is than wet, θ *,.
As shown in figure 3, specifically, diagnostic analysis will be carried out with the case of convection current potentiality, with θse500-700It is described not
Stable condition.θ before hail occurs 12 hours, 6 hours in analytical calculation convection processse500-700Understand the stability of layer knot, 12 is small
Before Shi Qianzhi 6 hours, θse500-700Tend to become negative value, low value center gradually includes diagnostic region.It was examined before 6 hours by comparison
Disconnected region θse500-700Whether actual value judges instability condition less than 0 DEG C.θ in casese500-700For negative value, -5 DEG C are in threshold
It is worth in range, therefore case is under instability condition.
Steam Vertical helicity is 0.1-0.2 × 10 in case4·kg·m-2·s-6> 0, and region at a high value, therefore
Determine that it is under advantageous water vapor condition.
Heating power shear advection parameter J > 0 in case, estimation range overhead are all positive value, and diagnostic region positive value center is located at
The position by north 600hPa illustrates that it is under the conditions of the lifting of advantageous power.
Moist potential vorticity is in estimation range overhead until 450hPa is all MPV1 < 0 in case；400hPa or more Upper troposphere is
Weak steady area.MPV1 low value center value is 1.5PVU, is located at 600hPa or so.Estimation range overhead is located at positive wet baroclinic zone
(MPV2 > 0) is conducive to the development of release, the convection current of instable energy.As shown in figure 4, entire prediction area is in steam energy
The negative value area of Vertical helicity, Target area are located at low value center region, are conducive to steam, power, instability condition collective effect
Lower promotion strong convection development.
S3, if Target area there are strong convection potentiality, by SI index, BLI index, dew-point deficit and vertical wind shear come
Judge that potentiality occurs for the hail of Target area.
It is for statistical analysis using SI index under hail weather, BLI index, dew-point deficit and vertical wind shear feature
The judgement of hail potentiality is carried out to Target area for the diagnosis amount threshold value of hail out.The judgement of Target area hail generation potentiality: SI≤-
0.02 DEG C, BLI≤0, dew-point deficit (T-Td)700hPa≤ 5 DEG C, vertical wind shear V300hPa-V700hPa≥12m/s。
SI≤- 0.02 DEG C, BLI≤0, dew-point deficit (T-Td)700hPa≤ 5 DEG C, vertical wind shear V300hPa-V700hPa
When >=12m/s, proposes to reinforce echo observation, prepare hail early warning.
BLI=0≤0, dew-point deficit (T-T in cased)700hPa=1≤5 DEG C, vertical wind shear V300hPa-V700hPa=
13m/s >=12m/s proposes to reinforce echo observation, prepares hail early warning.
S4 further carries out echo analysis to it: 0 DEG C of layer height is examined if there are hails, and potentiality occurs in prediction area
Disconnected amount, which substitutes into, obtains 45dBZ echo high threshold value in the linear equation of 45dBZ echo high and 0 DEG C of layer height, if actual ghosts top
Height is more than or equal to 45dBZ echo high threshold value and is then proposed that hail early warning；
Hail early warning can be directly proposed when occurring Strong convecting echo feature during echo analysis.
The linear relationship of 0 DEG C of layer height and 45dBZ echo high is as follows:
H0>=2500m, Y=2090.723+1.161X；
H0< 2500m, Y=5621.526+1.821X；
In formula, H0For 0 DEG C of layer height, X is 0 DEG C of layer height diagnosis amount, and Y is 45dBZ echo high threshold value.
According to the echo character that statistics obtains, according to 0 DEG C of layer height whether more than 2500m, by 0 DEG C of layer height diagnosis amount band
Enter in 45dBZ echo high and 0 DEG C of layer height linear equation, judges what hail occurred by the way that whether diagnosis reaches dependent thresholds
Possibility.
The strong developing stage of hail cloud may be missed according to the development of hail cloud and 6 minutes time intervals；Have chosen hail shooting
Time radar data, analyzes the relationship between strong echo high and 0 DEG C of layer height when previous hour is previous to hail shooting.Both it ensure that energy
The stage of ripeness of hail development is captured, and has accomplished to propose forecasting and warning before hail shooting, when being provided for sleet-proof work
Between.
There are certain seasonal variations according to 0 DEG C of layer height, the echo height and center intensity of radar can be according to 0 DEG C of layer heights
Variation generate certain variation.The relationship between the strong echo high obtained after the variation of 0 DEG C of layer and 0 DEG C of layer height is considered,
Relationship between the two is not only described, and improves the accuracy to the description of the two complex relationship.At 0 DEG C known to according to statistics
When layer height is above and below 2500m, the difference of strong echo high degree and 0 DEG C of layer height has notable difference.Therefore at analysis strong time
The high linear relationship between 0 DEG C of layer height of wave crest considers the seasonal variations of 0 DEG C of layer height, is higher than with the 2500m analysis that is limited
Lower than the relationship in the case of its two kinds.
The developing stage of hail cloud to its echo strength range of the stage of ripeness can be from 35dBZ-60dBZ.The present invention is according to case
The correlation for analyzing 35dBZ-60dBZ echo high degree with 0 DEG C of layer height obtains the echo high degree and 0 DEG C of layer height of 45dBZ
Degree has stronger correlation, and 0 DEG C of layer height is bigger with a possibility that echo high degree of 45dBZ changes.Therefore it has chosen
Linear relationship between the echo high degree of 45dBZ and 0 DEG C of layer height is as hail criterion.
The case that further would be possible to occur hailstorm utilizes appearance in its reflectivity, radial velocity characters analysis in short-term
A possibility that hailstorm.In observing Strong convecting echo feature: Three body scattering spike, " V " type notch, occurring in radial velocity map
Whens cyclone etc., can directly it provide alert.
H in case0=1232.6 substitute into X, practical H45dBZ>Y；As shown in figure 5, can be seen that in reflectivity section figure weak time
Wave area, without obvious characteristic feature in radial velocity map.Therefore this case is proposed that hail early warning.
Present invention incorporates the features of each scale, it is contemplated that can embody the multi-party face data of hail occurrence and development, extract phase
It closes to diagnose to measure and provides representational physical quantity threshold value.The present invention is mainly special according to Circulation and related physical quantity, echo
It levies the means combined with threshold value and determines that a possibility that hail occurs carrys out forecasting and warning.
It is described the prefered embodiments of the present invention in detail above in conjunction with attached drawing, still, the present invention is not limited to above-mentioned realities
The detail in mode is applied, within the scope of the technical concept of the present invention, a variety of letters can be carried out to technical solution of the present invention
Monotropic type, these simple variants all belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.
It is further to note that specific technical features described in the above specific embodiments, in not lance
In the case where shield, can be combined in any appropriate way, in order to avoid unnecessary repetition, the present invention to it is various can
No further explanation will be given for the combination of energy.
In addition, various embodiments of the present invention can be combined randomly, as long as it is without prejudice to originally
The thought of invention, it should also be regarded as the disclosure of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. the hail prediction technique based on each scale feature, which comprises the following steps:
S1 carries out Potential to Circulation: determining whether there is sulculus, if it exists sulculus, it is determined that whether Target area is deposited
System is maintained in the ground triggering system that can trigger convection current and the high-altitude that convection current can be developed, then proposes that convection current is latent if it exists
Gesture；
S2 utilizes diagnostic analysis module analysis θ if there are convection current potentialities for Target arease500-700, steam Vertical helicity, heating power
Shear advection parameter, moist potential vorticity and steam energy normal helicity are lifted with diagnosis prediction area with the presence or absence of water vapor condition, power
Strong convection development is collectively promoted with instability condition, then proposes strong convection potentiality if it exists；
S3 is judged if there are strong convection potentialities for Target area by SI index, BLI index, dew-point deficit and vertical wind shear
Potentiality occurs for the hail of Target area；
S4 further carries out echo analysis to it: by 0 DEG C of layer height diagnosis amount if there are hails, and potentiality occurs in prediction area
It substitutes into and obtains 45dBZ echo high threshold value in the linear equation of 45dBZ echo high and 0 DEG C of layer height, if actual ghosts heights of roofs
Hail early warning is then proposed that more than or equal to 45dBZ echo high threshold value；
Hail early warning can be directly proposed when occurring Strong convecting echo feature during echo analysis.
2. the hail prediction technique according to claim 1 based on each scale feature, which is characterized in that pass through θse500-700、
Steam Vertical helicity, heating power shear advection parameter come judge respectively Target area whether there is be conducive to strong convection generation shakiness
Fixed condition, water vapor condition and power are lifted condition, judged by moist potential vorticity, steam energy normal helicity instability condition,
Whether water vapor condition and power lifting condition collectively promote strong convection.
3. the hail prediction technique according to claim 2 based on each scale feature, which is characterized in that Target area is unstable
The existing judgement of condition: θse500-700Actual value is between -10~0 DEG C.
4. the hail prediction technique according to claim 2 based on each scale feature, which is characterized in that Target area steam item
The judgement of part: steam Vertical helicity > 0, steam Vertical helicity are Vertical helicity and steam related physical quantity than wet combination
Obtained diagnosis amount, determining Target area, there are the water vapor conditions for being conducive to strong convection generation.
5. the hail prediction technique according to claim 2 based on each scale feature, which is characterized in that Target area favorably moves
Power is lifted the existing judgement of condition: heating power shear advection parameter > 0, and the big value region of Target area positive value is located at lower layer in troposphere.
6. the hail prediction technique according to claim 2 based on each scale feature, which is characterized in that instability condition,
Water vapor condition and power lifting condition collectively promote the judgement of strong convection generation: when low layer moist potential vorticity component in Target area troposphere
MPV1<0, MPV2>0, Target area are the intersection regions in convective instability area Yu just wet baroclinic zone；
When steam energy normal helicity is negative value in Target area, and Target area overhead low value center is located at low layer in troposphere
When, steam energy normal helicity is Vertical helicity and steam related physical quantity than wet, energy related physical quantity broad sense position temperature
In conjunction with obtained diagnosis amount.
7. the hail prediction technique according to claim 1 based on each scale feature, which is characterized in that utilize hail weather
The lower diagnosis measure feature diagnosis amount threshold value for statistical analysis obtained for hail.The judgement of Target area hail generation potentiality: SI
≤ -0.02 DEG C, BLI≤0, dew-point deficit (T-Td)700hPa≤ 5 DEG C, vertical wind shear V300hPa-V700hPa≥12m/s。
8. the hail prediction technique according to claim 1 based on each scale feature, which is characterized in that 0 DEG C of layer height and
The linear relationship of 45dBZ echo high is as follows:
H0>=2500m, Y=2090.723+1.161X；
H0< 2500m, Y=5621.526+1.821X；
In formula, H0For 0 DEG C of layer height, X is 0 DEG C of layer height diagnosis amount, and Y is 45dBZ echo high threshold value.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN112766581A (en) * | 2021-01-25 | 2021-05-07 | 福建省气象科学研究所 | Method for automatically identifying and forecasting artificial hail suppression operation potential by computer |
| CN114384610A (en) * | 2021-12-28 | 2022-04-22 | 中国人民解放军94201部队 | Hail short-term landing area forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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