CN104049285A - Method for forecasting tornado potentiality of China region - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for forecasting tornado potentiality of the China region. The method mainly comprises the two steps that firstly, whether the atmosphere has met the strong thunderstorm weather condition or not is judged; secondly, whether the strong thunderstorm has met the tornado condition is further judged. Whether convection effective potential energy data, 0-6 km wind shear data, 0-1 km wind shear data and lifting condensation height data and combinations in the atmosphere meet corresponding requirements is mainly judged. The method can improve tornado forecasting ability and effectively overcome the defect that nationwide research can not be performed because the tornado is difficult to capture and forecast.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of forecasting procedure for spout, especially, for the method for the spout Application in Potential Prediction of CHINESE REGION, belong to atmospheric science research field.
Background technology
Spout is a kind of high wind vortex of following the funnel-form cloud column of High Rotation Speed.The yardstick of spout is little, life cycle is short, is difficult for being caught by routine observation means, and more difficult forecast and early warning in advance, cause great casualties and property loss through part to institute.China is subject to spout to affect one of comparatively serious country, and especially spout is multiple especially in eastern region.Therefore, improve the accuracy of typhoon forecast, concern life and social safety.
For the research of spout, there is a large amount of field trials abroad, as the VORTEX project of the U.S..Their forecasting procedure was developed into and be take physical agent as basic forecast by experimental forecast in nearly decades, research shows: the parameters such as convective available potential energy, strong vertically-supplying air are cut, isentropic condensation clevel and their combination have good indicative significance to spout, and spout betides at interior steam near the ground abundant, and middle level has in the environment of cold dry air.
The index parameter forming according to these physical agents, the spout Application in Potential Prediction index that forms and set up them abroad is even carried out Application in Potential Prediction in global range in themselves country.And at home, for the research of spout, be mostly the statistical induction of weather characteristics that wind spout occurs, geographic distribution, temporal-spatial distribution characteristic etc., or to the routine research of disastrous spout, generally from weather background, start with, environmental characteristic diagnosis, is used in conjunction with radar observation and satellite cloud picture.Early warning for strong weather is mainly the environment potentiality research for hail, convection current heavy rain and thunderstorm strong wind etc.
Whether atmosphere related data is met to the potentiality that following index parameter is predicted spout abroad:
Wherein 1-3 is the condition that meets Strong Thunderstorm; Secondly, the 4th is spout and the non-spout of distinguishing in Strong Thunderstorm; Finally, 5 and 6 the condition that is unfavorable for that spout forms is further proposed.
Utilize the method for external prediction spout potentiality to carry out the prediction of spout potentiality for CHINESE REGION, although also can judge, accuracy rate is no more than 5%.
How to improve the forecast accuracy of CHINESE REGION spout? what does is the environment that is applicable to spout generation on earth? understand the problems referred to above, on holding, forecast timely and effectively spout future and take suitable means to intervene spout process to reduce impact and the loss that spout was caused, significant!
Summary of the invention
Technical matters to be solved by this invention is to improve for CHINESE REGION spout Application in Potential Prediction accuracy rate, the present invention is based on weather background, the environment field feature of external forecasting procedure and Chinese practice generation spout, set up a spout Application in Potential Prediction common index, be intended to improve the prediction ability of this small scale weather of spout.
In order to solve the problems of the technologies described above, of the present inventionly a kind ofly forecast that the method for CHINESE REGION spout potentiality comprises following steps:
A. judge convective available potential energy data (being abbreviated as the CAPE)>=550J kg of atmosphere
-1;
B. on step a basis, judge that 0-6km wind shear data (representing 0-6km wind shear data with S6) and the combination of convective available potential energy data (CAPE) meet 1.637log (S6)+2.316log (CAPE) >=8.30;
By step a and b, to convective available potential energy data and 0-6km wind shear data judging, can determine whether atmosphere has formed Severe thunderstorm condition.
C. on the basis of step a and b, judge that 0-1km wind shear data (representing 0-1km wind shear data with S1) and the combination of isentropic condensation clevel data (representing isentropic condensation clevel data with mlLCL) meet 250S1-mlLCL >=1000;
D. on the basis of step c, further judge 0-1km wind shear data (S1)>=5m s
-1, isentropic condensation clevel (mlLCL)≤1000m.
If convective available potential energy data, 0-6km wind shear data and 0-1km wind shear data meet the situation of above-mentioned steps, can judge that atmosphere may form spout.
According to above technical scheme, can realize following beneficial effect:
1, the present invention is based on external spout forecasting procedure, by analyzing China, have or not the actual conditions of spout, set up the new spout Application in Potential Prediction common index that is applicable to CHINESE REGION.Compared with prior art, this method has made up the part vacancy of severe Convective Weather Warnings aspect to cyclone weather forecast, has improved in addition index parameter and threshold value, makes to be more suitable for CHINESE REGION.
2, the method for the invention has improved the raising of CHINESE REGION spout Application in Potential Prediction level.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is between 2004-2009, spout (dotted line) and non-spout (solid line) environmental variance CAPE (J kg
-1) probability density curve;
Fig. 2 is between 2004-2009, spout (dotted line) and non-spout (solid line) environmental variance 700-500hPa temperature lapse rate (unit: probability density curve K km-1);
Fig. 3 is 0-6km wind shear (m s in the average state of 2004-2009 spout (" △ " shape) and non-spout (". " shape)
-1) and CAPE (J kg
-1) spot style distribution plan, straight line represents formula (1), dotted line represents external index line;
Fig. 4 is 0-1km wind shear (m s in the average state of 2004-2009 spout (" △ " shape) and non-spout (". " shape)
-1) and the spot style distribution plan of isentropic condensation clevel (m), straight line represents formula (2), dotted line represents external index line;
Fig. 5 is between 2004-2009, spout (dotted line) and non-spout (solid line) environmental variance 0-1km wind shear (m s
-1) probability density curve;
Fig. 6 is between 2004-2009, the probability density curve of spout (dotted line) and non-spout (solid line) environmental variance isentropic condensation clevel (m);
Fig. 7 is spout early warning process flow diagram;
Fig. 8 is the raw potential figure that may number colors in of the annual Chinese dragon of 2004-2011 annual curly hair, and grey colour code is from being deep to shallow representative successively: spout region (>12/year), inferior easy generation spout region (9-12/year) easily occur, easily spout (prediction number is at 5-8) occurs, easily spout (prediction number is at 5-8) occur;
Fig. 9 is the actual spout of 2004-2011 (point-like) and index prediction environment potentiality distribution plan (coloring in), point-like: the actual spout occurring; Color in: grey colour code is from being deep to shallow representative successively: spout region (>12/year), inferior easy generation spout region (9-12/year) easily occur, easily spout (prediction number is at 5-8) occurs, easily spout (prediction number is at 5-8) occur.
Embodiment
The environmental parameter of 121 spouts that 2004-2009 is occurred in China and corresponding non-spout performs an analysis, and with closing on sounding analysis method, removes to find the corresponding relation of environmental parameter and spout generation, and distinguishes the environment of spout and non-spout.Non-spout: the mean state that spout does not occur.The annual of spout spot parameters when 04-09 did not understand between each year time, 121 corresponding 121*6 non-spout situations of spout.Close on the data information that sounding analysis method adopts the most close spout time of origin and spot.
The concrete scheme of such scheme is as follows:
6 index parameters are analyzed, and the index of single amount is seen the point of interface that has or not two kinds of situations in spout probability density distribution figure, and combined index makes to have or not the number percent of spout to reach maximum.
In China, CAPE value is generally very large, has or not the best diacritical point of spout at 550J kg
-1neighbouring (referring to Fig. 1), statistics show that a spout example has 79%CAPE to reach 550J kg-1, non-spout situation only has 3% to reach this value, differs number percent and reaches maximum.Temperature lapse rate is at 5-6K km
-1account for major part (referring to Fig. 2), to compare numerical value less than normal with the U.S., the diacritical point that has or not spout is 5.8K km
-1, but because overlapping area is large, have or not spout difference not obvious, consider this index in China without practical function.0-6km wind is cut the combination (referring to Fig. 3) with CAPE, and a spout example has 56% on line, and non-spout does not have up to standard, but can not make to have or not the difference of spout number percent to reach maximum, for making index distinguish better the situation that has or not spout in China, find index line (formula 1)
1.637log(S6)+2.316log(CAPE)＝8.30 (1)
71% spout example is up to standard, and non-spout is only 0.3% up to standard, and it is maximum that the difference of number percent reaches.Combination (referring to Fig. 4) for 0-1km wind shear and isentropic condensation clevel (mlLCL), have or not spout number percent up to standard to be respectively 52% and 19%, only differ 33%, find out equally the index line (formula 2) that can at utmost distinguish spout and non-spout in China
250S1-mlLCL＝1000 (2)
Have or not spout number percent up to standard to be respectively 43% and 0.8%, it is maximum that both differences reach.China has or not spout isentropic condensation clevel all generally (referring to Fig. 5) less than normal, and this index of possible isentropic condensation clevel is variant with the situation of the U.S. in China.According to nearest both at home and abroad research and analysis, find, isentropic condensation clevel >1200m can reduce the probability that spout produces greatly, Thompson etc. (2000) statistics finds that the average isentropic condensation clevel that produces the above strong spout of F2 level is lower than 981m, the average isentropic condensation clevel of weak spout is 1179m, if isentropic condensation clevel is large, lower boundary layer humidity causes evaporative cooling, under the stream that settles out strengthen, in low layer, cyclone can be cut off.For getting rid of the storm environment that is unfavorable for that spout generates, maintain the situation that mlLCL is greater than 1000m of rejecting.S1 is smaller, and have or not near the intersection point being a bit larger tham 6 (referring to Fig. 6) of the probability density distribution curve of spout, but this value will be omitted a more spout example, in order to make index reduce situation about failing to report, for single index, need more than half examples up to standard, other each indexs are all over half, and actual S1 is decided to be 5m s
-1time, a spout example has and surpasses 50% up to standard and this value and approach 0-1km vertical wind shear lower limit (the 5.5m s that strong spout appears in foreign statistic
-1).
By above-mentioned analysis, obtain being applicable to the method for Chinese spout Application in Potential Prediction.
During for somewhere, the inferior potentiality that whether has spout to occur, is used and closes on sounding, with the New Set of setting up, judges.First will meet the condition that thunderstorm system produces that is conducive to, first square frame content in Fig. 6, if there is one not meet, just need not differentiate other amounts again, and environment is not suitable for spout and occurs; If this square frame condition meets, more whether see above the combination line of 0-1km wind shear and isentropic condensation clevel, and get rid of S1 value and be less than 5 and the mlLCL value situation that is greater than 1000, i.e. second square frame content, while meeting, early warning will have spout to occur.
Utilize the method, by NCEP data, the spout of 2004-2011 is carried out to potentiality prediction and check.Obtain raw potential may distribute (referring to the Fig. 7) of the overall Chinese dragon every year on average of 2004-2011 curly hair: Gao Zhi district is at the middle part in Jiangsu and Anhui and the Guangdong, Guangxi in south China and Hainan.Potentiality distribution plan and the real spout (referring to Fig. 8) of sending out from prediction in each year: within 2004, district occurred frequently mainly borders on district, most areas, Guangdong, Guangxi Hainan in Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan.Inferior region occurred frequently is in other areas in these provinces, and spout also easily occurs for the central and north, Jiangsu, Shandong, Southern Hebei in addition.In east Henan area, Midwest, Hunan, Midwest, Fujian, easily there is spout.And from predicting that also there is the possibility that spout occurs in Zhejiang, the Three Eastern Provinces.Except Guangxi mostly is, empty report, Shanxi are real to be sent out a spout fails to report, and the actual spot of spout conforms to prediction, generation easily also corresponding with color grade.The spout of whole nation generation in 2005, from area Hubei, is secondly the provinces such as Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, Henan, Anhui, Shandong.From the central and east, color lump figure Hubei, Anhui, east, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, the area, Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces of prediction, it is all spout district occurred frequently.Zhejiang, Midwest, Hunan, Southern Shandong Province, Liaoning are the regions inferior occurred frequently of spout.Other areas in above-mentioned province, there is the possibility that spout occurs slightly on the ground such as Fujian Province.Empty report region is the most of region in Jiangxi, Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangxi, fails to report lessly, only has indivedual.The spout of whole nation generation in 2006 is maximum from Jiangsu, area, is secondly Guangdong.Hunan, Hubei, the Three Eastern Provinces, Guangdong, Hainan also have spout to occur.These roughly conform to index prediction, and more except the empty report in Guangxi, Shandong, the free report in Liaoning, fail to report less.The spout of whole nation generation in 2007 is from area, and Jiangsu frequency is maximum, is secondly Anhui, Guangdong and Hubei.The empty report such as Guangxi, Hainan, Zhejiang is serious, and the spout in the Inner Mongol is failed in prediction district.The spout that the whole nation in 2008 occurs is from area, and Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, Hubei, Liaoning, Hainan, ancient capital, Inner Mongol have at most several times at least wind spout once occur.Guangxi, ALONG COASTAL FUJIAN, Zhejiang sky are reported more, and the spout in Shandong and the Inner Mongol can not well be predicted out.The spout of whole nation generation in 2009 is from area, and Guangdong, Hainan occur at most, and Guangxi, Hubei, Jiangsu, Heilungkiang also have sporadicly spout several times to occur.Remain the empty report in Guangxi province serious, the slightly empty report in the most areas in Fujian, Zhejiang, indivedual spouts on the ground such as Heilungkiang, Jilin can not dope.Within 2010, district occurred frequently is mainly in Middle Jiangsu Province, Northern Part of Zhejiang, eastern Anhui province, San Sheng contiguous areas, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces, Hainan and ALONG COASTAL FUJIAN region.Inferior district occurred frequently is in other areas in above-mentioned these provinces, and also there is the possibility that spout occurs in China northeast, North China.And actual conditions, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Heilungkiang, Anhui in 2010 are that maximum provinces occurs spout.The area that other relate to and prediction basically identical, except Guangxi, Zhejiang area are empty report, fails to report less.The district occurred frequently of the Application in Potential Prediction of 2011 in the middle and south, Jiangsu, the central and east, Anhui and south, Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces.Inferior district occurred frequently is Hubei, Jiangxi, and also there is the possibility that spout occurs in the Three Eastern Provinces and Shandong in addition.Contrast actual conditions, Jiangsu is the most occurred frequently, and take second place in Guangdong, and Hubei occupies the 3rd, and except the spout in Sichuan, Hebei, the Inner Mongol can not forecast out, does not fail to report in other areas.
Comprehensive these 8 years, prediction locality have spout to occur and actual not spout occur the situation of (empty report) many in Guangxi, Zhejiang, these three provinces, Fujian, other areas slightly relate to but are all individual cases, studying carefully its common trait is that mountain area is more, hinder the development of wind spout, so need consider local landform during real prediction.Prediction locality does not have spout to occur but the situation of wind spout (failing to report) has but occurred reality is sporadicly distributed in province, inland and the areas such as Shandong, the Three Eastern Provinces and Sichuan, Hebei, Shanxi, and these areas are all inclined to one side inlands, index that may be new for these regional applicabilities do not have east and coastal province high.
Above-mentioned second point is potentiality prediction and the check of the method for the time in past.For future, make to use the same method to carrying out potentiality prediction future.The forecast fields that calculates whole spout Application in Potential Prediction index according to forecast fieldses such as the temperature, pressure of prediction, wet, wind can forecast.
Claims (1)
1. forecast a method for CHINESE REGION spout potentiality, it is characterized in that comprising following steps:
A. judge convective available potential energy data>=550J kg of atmosphere
-1;
B. the combination of judging 0-6km wind shear data and convective available potential energy data meets 1.637log (S6)+2.316log (CAPE) >=8.30;
C. the combination of judging 0-1km wind shear data and isentropic condensation clevel data meets 250S1-mlLCL >=1000;
D. on the basis of step c, further judge 0-1km wind shear data>=5ms
-1, isentropic condensation clevel≤1000m.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110488298A (en) * | 2019-08-30 | 2019-11-22 | 成都信息工程大学 | Hail method for early warning based on each scale feature |
| CN115545273A (en) * | 2022-08-25 | 2022-12-30 | 浙江省气象台 | Non-auxiliary-height tornado potentiality forecasting and early warning method, system, medium and terminal |
-
2014
- 2014-07-01 CN CN201410314198.0A patent/CN104049285A/en active Pending
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| H. E. BROOKS ET AL: "The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data", 《ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH》 * |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110488298A (en) * | 2019-08-30 | 2019-11-22 | 成都信息工程大学 | Hail method for early warning based on each scale feature |
| CN115545273A (en) * | 2022-08-25 | 2022-12-30 | 浙江省气象台 | Non-auxiliary-height tornado potentiality forecasting and early warning method, system, medium and terminal |
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Application publication date: 20140917 |