CN107066689A - A kind of Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure - Google Patents
A kind of Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of Weather Risk method for early warning of flashover of power transmission circuit caused by windage yaw failure, in view of cause windage yaw discharge high wind and severe weather process it is in close relations, the analysis of synoptic process, ground, climate factors and weather index before and after by the way that history windage yaw discharge failure occurs, it is proposed that the whole atmosphere collective model associated with windage yaw discharge failure.In this model except considering that wind speed change in itself is outside the pale of civilization, it is also contemplated that the change of the key element such as temperature, the air pressure closely related with severe weather process and the indicative significance of upper-level weather index.And whole atmosphere collective model is adjusted further combined with numerical model forecast result on this basis, it is allowed to adapt to numerical model forecast result, precision over time and space is also remarkably improved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power transmission circuit caused by windage fault pre-alarming technical field, and in particular to one kind is directed to transmission line of electricity wet monsoon
The Weather Risk method for early warning of inclined failure.
Background technology
Because the overhead transmission line in transmission line of electricity is throughout the year exposed to outdoor, the effect for being often subject to wind-force is swung, extremely
Reduce electrical distance between wire-shaft tower or wire-surrounding trees, when the electrical strength of this gap distance is not resistant to system most
Disruptive discharge will occur during high working voltage, this phenomenon is commonly referred to as the windage yaw discharge phenomenon of circuit.Windage yaw discharge is different
In lightning stroke flashover and switching impulse flashover, it is mostly occurred under operating voltage, and due to the continuity and continuation of wind, windage yaw is dodged
Network is once occur to be usually impossible reclosing success, and this will result directly in the unplanned outage of circuit, have a strong impact on country
The normal safe operation of power system.Since China, transmission line of electricity second generation tower bar puts into operation, flashover of power transmission circuit caused by windage yaw thing
Therefore frequently occur, bring serious influence and great economic loss to China's national grid.
High wind is that occur the reason for windage yaw discharge is most direct, and it makes insulator chain be tilted to shaft tower direction, reduces wire
With the air gap distance of tower.Adjoint torrential rain or hail can reduce discharge voltage during strong wind.If estimated to bad weather
Meter is not enough, and design wind speed is smaller than actual wind speed, then easily occurs windage yaw discharge accident.Therefore, high wind is all power network all the time
The emphasis of concern.Although also there is the forecasting and warning of strong wind in daily weather forecast, this forecast for the public is usual
Urban population compact district is concerned with, and early warning range is larger, and precision is inadequate.And transmission line of electricity it is many all meagrely-populated or
The influence of topography is significantly regional.Therefore, the gale forecast early warning of weather forecast can not meet the demand of power grid operation management.
Past only considered the size of wind speed near the ground on the research of windage yaw discharge, and the generation machine of high wind had not been paid close attention to
Reason, therefore, the consideration to wind speed in windage yaw discharge Early-warning Model is excessively simple, and early warning effect is not good.By taking summer as an example, summer
It is windage yaw discharge failure multiple period, and the high wind of summer is how relevant with strong convective weather.The usual local of strong convective weather is non-
Chang Qiang, the high wind duration is not long, and the scope of generation may also less, accordingly, there exist some local actual wind speeds are very big, still
Neighbouring weather station had not observed the phenomenon of very big wind speed, and list judges that high wind may from the Wind Data of weather station record
Circuit wind estimation value can be caused less than normal.In addition, causing the weather system of windage yaw discharge in different regional shadow of different seasons
Ring different, there is also significant difference for the feature of high wind.Windage yaw discharge accident may be with instantaneous wind speed, big caused by wind in Spring and Winter
The vertical movement of gas is relevant, and the mean wind speed of weather station record can not reflect these wind regime features.And not all on the other hand,
High wind can all cause windage yaw discharge.For example, on June 3rd, 2009 occurs in that a wide range of squall line, still, Henan does not have windage yaw sudden strain of a muscle
Network failure logging.Accordingly, it would be desirable to further investigate contacting between high wind weather system and windage yaw discharge failure, windage yaw could be improved
The effect of flashover Early-warning Model.
High wind and strong weather system are closely related, and strong weather system be generally accompanied by air pressure, temperature, precipitation it is notable
Change, whole atmosphere also occurs obvious stability change, flow field, humiture change also clearly.Integrate these
Feature, which may determine that, causes the weather characteristics of windage yaw discharge failure, so as to realize the Weather Risk early warning to windage yaw discharge failure.
The content of the invention
, being capable of depth announcement it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of Weather Risk method for early warning of flashover of power transmission circuit caused by windage yaw
The severe weather process high-altitude Ground Meteorological feature associated with windage yaw discharge, sets up windage yaw discharge failure and whole atmosphere motion feature
Between correlation model, to may occur the meteorological condition of windage yaw discharge carry out early warning, contribute to pointedly management and control operation of power networks
Risk, the operational reliability level for improving power system.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the technical solution used in the present invention is：The technical solution adopted by the present invention is：
1 sets up the whole atmosphere collective model with windage yaw discharge fault correlation
1）Analyze the synoptic process feature before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs
Weather map, radar map before and after occurring with reference to history windage yaw discharge failure, initial analysis are corresponding with windage yaw discharge failure
High low latitude situation and surface synoptic situations, weather phenomenon, summarize the variation characteristic of synoptic process before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs.
It is used for portraying ground, climate factors and the index of synoptic process feature according to different weather system estimations.
2）Determine surface meteorological factor
Collect the weather station observational data near circuit before and after history windage yaw discharge failure occurs, analysis wind speed, wind direction, temperature,
The change in time and space of air pressure, relative humidity, precipitation key element before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs and during all day gas.According to
Weather system is classified, and summarizes the changing rule of windage yaw discharge failure Surface Meteorological caused by same class weather system,
And select most representational surface meteorological factor.
3）Determine the aerological factor
Collect the Sounding Data before and after history windage yaw discharge failure occurs, analyze different isobaris surface wind speed, wind direction, temperature, air pressure,
The change of dew point key element and various weather indexs before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs and in whole synoptic process.According to day
Gas system is classified, and summarizes the climate factors changing rule of windage yaw discharge failure caused by same class weather system, and
Select the most representational aerological factor.
4）Determine meteorological factor threshold value
Consider the difference of the distance of weather station and line fault point, observation time and fault time, and each windage yaw discharge
The corresponding ground of failure, the value of the aerological factor, primarily determine that meteorological factor threshold value.
The weather station distribution of early stage is sparse, and weather station may be more next with the laying of weather station farther out far from faulty line
More intensive, the distance between weather station and faulty line may be increasingly nearer, and both are more likely in during same weather.Cause
This, it is determined that during meteorological factor threshold value, factor change larger station in selection station can suitably increase as reference.
Souding upper-air observation two times a day, the difference of several hours is there may be with fault time, day when actual wind leaning fault occurs
Gas process is very strong, therefore, and the value of the aerological factor is also required to appropriate increase.
2 set up windage yaw discharge Weather Risk Early-warning Model
The simply preliminary model determined by observational data, space-time precision is thicker, needs binding pattern pre- before for early warning
The result of report further adjusts refinement.
Forecast by meso-scale model or data based on being back-calculated result, further set up windage yaw discharge Weather wind way pre-
Alert model.
1）Determine aerological factor threshold
Using by when numerical forecast result calculate upper-level weather index, analyze the change of upper-level weather index.If big with flood
Gas collective model result is consistent, then can determine that aerological factor model is constant.If again poor with whole atmosphere collective model result
It is different, then need to summarize the changing rule of weather index and meteorological element again, whole atmosphere collective model is modified, again really
Determine the aerological factor and its threshold value.
2）Determine surface meteorological factor threshold value
Because Numerical Prediction Models lattice are away from than observing website spacing from small, accordingly, it would be desirable to compare surface meteorological factor threshold value
Relatively analyze.Analysis numerical forecast result is wanted substantially with observation website in wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation
Surface meteorological factor threshold value in difference between element, adjustment whole atmosphere collective model.
3）High-altitude, surface meteorological factor matching
Because the change in high low latitude and the change of terrain feature of weather system have regular hour and spatial diversity, therefore,
Above high-altitude, the matching of surface meteorological factor need to consider the difference of time.By analyzing aerological factor time change and ground
Difference between the meteorological factor time change of face, it is determined that being most likely to occur the meteorological factor combination of windage yaw discharge failure.
Advantages of the present invention has：
1）The meteorological condition for judging to associate with windage yaw discharge from the characteristic synthetic of whole atmosphere.In the past to the research of windage yaw discharge
Pay close attention to wind speed forecasting result.Because numerical model is to strong wind and the forecast limited accuracy of strong convective weather, accuracy of weather forecast
Also not enough, therefore, windage yaw discharge Early-warning Model effect is poor.The present invention from causing the synoptic process feature of windage yaw discharge to start with,
Determine to cause the meteorological condition of windage yaw discharge by the comprehensive study to whole atmosphere, physical significance is clearer and more definite.Moreover, this hair
The bright weather forecast pattern that considers forecasts that the degree of accuracy is higher to weather pattern at high, makes full use of the empty meteorological element of height and weather
It is not enough that indices prediction advantage compensate for terrain feature forecast volume.
2）Space-time high-resolution.The Weather Risk model of windage yaw discharge failure can be embedded in after numerical forecast model, can be with
Export by when each lattice point meteorological element and weather refer to target value, and risk warning indexes value.At present, numerical forecast model
Spatial resolution can reach 1km.
3）Combined with numerical forecast result closer.It is less than normal to strong wind prediction result that this method considers Numerical Prediction Models
Possibility, to wind speed, temperature, air pressure, upper-level weather metrics-thresholds determination directly according to numerical forecast result, rather than observation
As a result, more can be with numerical mode-matching.
Brief description of the drawings
The invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings：
Fig. 1 is the structural representation of the present invention；
Fig. 2 Linzhou City station wind, air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation time series；
Fig. 3 lattice points（32.4805 ° of N, 111.7442 ° of E）SWEAT indexes, K indexes, vertical shear exponential time sequence；
Fig. 4 forecasts wind speed profile when being 19-22；
Fig. 5 forecasts air temperature distribution when being 19-22；
Fig. 6 forecasts gas pressure distribution when being 19-22；
Fig. 7 lattice points（32.48 ° of N, 111.74 ° of E）Forecast wind speed, temperature, air pressure sequence；
Fig. 8 windage yaw discharge Weather Risks Early-warning Model forecasts windage yaw discharge Weather Risk area distribution.
Embodiment
As shown in figures 1-8, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is：
1 sets up the whole atmosphere collective model with windage yaw discharge fault correlation
1）Analyze the synoptic process feature before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs
Weather map, radar map before and after occurring with reference to history windage yaw discharge failure, initial analysis are corresponding with windage yaw discharge failure
High low latitude situation and surface synoptic situations, weather phenomenon, summarize the variation characteristic of synoptic process before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs.
It is used for portraying ground, climate factors and the index of synoptic process feature according to different weather system estimations.
2）Determine surface meteorological factor
Collect the weather station observational data near circuit before and after history windage yaw discharge failure occurs, analysis wind speed, wind direction, temperature,
The change in time and space of air pressure, relative humidity, precipitation key element before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs and during all day gas.According to
Weather system is classified, and summarizes the changing rule of windage yaw discharge failure Surface Meteorological caused by same class weather system,
And select most representational surface meteorological factor.
3）Determine the aerological factor
Collect the Sounding Data before and after history windage yaw discharge failure occurs, analyze different isobaris surface wind speed, wind direction, temperature, air pressure,
The change of dew point key element and various weather indexs before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs and in whole synoptic process.According to day
Gas system is classified, and summarizes the climate factors changing rule of windage yaw discharge failure caused by same class weather system, and
Select the most representational aerological factor.
4）Determine meteorological factor threshold value
Consider the difference of the distance of weather station and line fault point, observation time and fault time, and each windage yaw discharge
The corresponding ground of failure, the value of the aerological factor, primarily determine that meteorological factor threshold value.
The weather station distribution of early stage is sparse, and weather station may be more next with the laying of weather station farther out far from faulty line
More intensive, the distance between weather station and faulty line may be increasingly nearer, and both are more likely in during same weather.Cause
This, it is determined that during meteorological factor threshold value, factor change larger station in selection station can suitably increase as reference.
Souding upper-air observation two times a day, the difference of several hours is there may be with fault time, day when actual wind leaning fault occurs
Gas process is very strong, therefore, and the value of the aerological factor is also required to appropriate increase.
2 set up windage yaw discharge Weather Risk Early-warning Model
The simply preliminary model determined by observational data, space-time precision is thicker, needs binding pattern pre- before for early warning
The result of report further adjusts refinement.
Forecast by meso-scale model or data based on being back-calculated result, further set up windage yaw discharge Weather wind way pre-
Alert model.
1）Determine aerological factor threshold
Using by when numerical forecast result calculate upper-level weather index, analyze the change of upper-level weather index.If big with flood
Gas collective model result is consistent, then can determine that aerological factor model is constant.If again poor with whole atmosphere collective model result
It is different, then need to summarize the changing rule of weather index and meteorological element again, whole atmosphere collective model is modified, again really
Determine the aerological factor and its threshold value.
2）Determine surface meteorological factor threshold value
Because Numerical Prediction Models lattice are away from than observing website spacing from small, accordingly, it would be desirable to compare surface meteorological factor threshold value
Relatively analyze.Analysis numerical forecast result is wanted substantially with observation website in wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation
Surface meteorological factor threshold value in difference between element, adjustment whole atmosphere collective model.
3）High-altitude, surface meteorological factor matching
Because the change in high low latitude and the change of terrain feature of weather system have regular hour and spatial diversity, therefore,
Above high-altitude, the matching of surface meteorological factor need to consider the difference of time.By analyzing aerological factor time change and ground
Difference between the meteorological factor time change of face, it is determined that being most likely to occur the meteorological factor combination of windage yaw discharge failure.
The specific implementation process of the present invention is introduced with real case below.By taking Henan Province as an example.
1 sets up the whole atmosphere collective model with windage yaw discharge fault correlation
1）Synoptic process is analyzed
Analyze 12 summers of Henan Province（The 6-8 months）The corresponding weather phenomenon of windage yaw discharge failure logging, all goes out near circuit
Strong convective weather is showed, high low latitude weather situation shows obvious convergence and shear, and there is also belt of convergency, wind leaning fault on ground
Appear in convergence region.There is low temperature, high humidity, the quick mobile or change of low-pressure centre near the windage yaw fault zone of ground.
Low temperature, high humidity center change before and after wind leaning fault occurs, and belt of convergency weakens or disappeared after wind leaning fault generation.Cause
This, tentatively judge surface pressure, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind vector and high-altitude be used for describe convergence, shear and
The weather index of stability turns into related meteorological factor.
2）Terrain feature variation characteristic
Analyze before and after 12 windage yaw discharge failure logging times faulty line nearby the wind speed of weather station, wind direction, air pressure, temperature,
The change of relative humidity, precipitation, summary show that windage yaw discharge generation area has obvious temperature drop, air pressure to rise, relatively
Humidity increases, precipitation phenomenon occurs（As shown in Figure 2）.In view of there is a certain distance between weather station and faulty line, and
Observation time is not time of failure, therefore, chooses each wind leaning fault and records the larger value work of corresponding factor change
It is specific as follows for the ground metrics-thresholds of model：Surface temperature declines not less than 8 °C, atmospherically in 3 hours before and after wind leaning fault
Rise and be not less than 2hPa, relative humidity increase is not less than 20%, 1 hour precipitation is not less than 10mm, wind direction and circuit when windage yaw occurs
Angle is not less than 45 °.
See Fig. 2, Fig. 2 Linzhou City station wind, air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation time series（Wind leaning fault occurs 6
The moon 2）
3）Upper-level weather index feature
Analyze the neighbouring sounding station wind speed of faulty line, wind direction, temperature, air pressure, dew before and after 12 windage yaw discharge failure logging times
Point key element and convection weather index（Sharpe index, lifting index, SWEAT indexes, K indexes, National Federation of Trade Unions's index, CAPE, convection current suppress
Index, totality Richardson numbers, the corresponding temperature of isentropic condensation clevel, air pressure, mixed layer average bit temperature, 1000hPa-
500hPa thickness, flood precipitable water, vertical shear index, dew-point deficit）（Slightly）, sum up 3 with similarity rules
Index, is SWEAT indexes, K indexes, vertical shear index respectively.Three Index Definitions are as follows：
SWEAT indexes
（1）
Wherein,TFor total index number：,Calculated by following formula：
,DFor wind direction,FFor wind speed,For 850hpa temperature,For 850hpa dew point.Formula（1）In the 1st：850hpa
This is 0 when dew-point temperature is negative；Formula（1）In the 2nd：If T<49, this is 0；Formula（1）In the 3rd and 4：Wind speed list
Position is section（In the sea/hour）If, m/s, then wind speed2；Formula（1）In the 5th：Either condition does not have in following 4 conditions
It is 0 when standby：850hpa wind directions are between 130 ° ~ 250 °；500hpa wind directions are between 210 ° ~ 310 °, and 500hpa wind directions subtract
850hpa wind directions is just；850hpa and 500hpa wind speed at least one be not less than 15 nautical miles/hour.
K indexes
（2）
Vertical shear index
（3）
When counting 12 before and after 12 windage yaw discharge accidents or raob data when 0, obtain nearest before windage yaw discharge accident
SWEAT indexes >=200, K index >=30 that raob is obtained, vertical shear index >=30.
2 set up windage yaw discharge Weather Risk Early-warning Model
The windage yaw discharge event during June in 2016 of 20-22 on the 5th is have chosen, BJRUC Model in Henan Province on June 5th, 2016 is utilized
Ground, high-altitude key element forecast, pattern sets grid away from for 9km.
1）Aerological factor model
Only have 2 times within one day due to sounding station data, above high-altitude factor model is more rough, and knot is needed before for Early-warning Model
Close numerical forecast result further perfect.
Analyze 3 weather index（SWEAT indexes, K indexes, vertical shear index）In the time series of each lattice point, hair
SWEAT indexes are very big in a few hours before existing some areas windage yaw discharge occurs（More than 300）, then rapid to decline, K refers to before declining
Number and vertical shear index are also very big（More than 30）, as shown in Figure 3.There is the lattice point of these phenomenons in statistics, determines aerological
Factor model is：SWEAT indexes are more than K indexes and vertical shear index in the 300, the 3rd hour and are more than 30 in 3 hours.But,
When the time of SWEAT index variations is instead of occurring at 20-22, but it is partially early, in 15-19, see Fig. 3.
2）Surface meteorological factor model
Because Ground Meteorological stop spacing transmission line of electricity has certain distance, and surface weather station's observational data and model predictions result
Some differences are had, therefore, above surface meteorological factor model needs to enter with reference to numerical value forecast result before for Early-warning Model
Row revision.
Choose and meet the lattice point of aerological factor model, analyze the wind speed of these lattice points, temperature, air pressure, relative humidity,
The space-time characteristic of precipitation factor.
Wind speed, temperature, gas pressure distribution are forecast during 19-22 as Figure 4-Figure 6, and maximum wind velocity appears in Henan Province the north, south
Less, wind speed change is also little for the positive overall wind speed in area；The change of temperature is obvious, Nanyang Prefecture mercury dropped during 19-21
3 °C or so；Nanyang Prefecture periphery isobar is intensive, while occurring in that high pressure and low-pressure centre, sees Fig. 4,5,6.
From the point of view of the time series of each lattice point, wind speed substantially reaches maximum in 20-21, still, and wind is designed with circuit
Speed is compared, and maximum is still smaller, and no more than 9m/s, compared with the weather station observed result in Nanyang area, difference is little；Gas
Temperature when 18 decline always, and temperature drop in 3 hours is substantially all more than 5 °C in the observed result of Nanyang area；Air pressure
Then slightly rise, not less than 1hPa, see Fig. 7.
3）High-altitude, surface meteorological factor matching
With reference to the transformation period of the high-altitude factor, determine that ground factor model is：5 is small after when high-altitude factor S WEAT indexes drop suddenly
When interior temperature drop be not less than 3 °C, air pressure, which rises, is not less than 1hPa, and wind speed maximum is not less than 3m/s, wind leaning fault most probable
The time of generation be defined as wind speed it is maximum when time.Weather Risk grade is judged according to wind speed size：Reached in above metrics-thresholds
On the premise of arriving, wind speed is 1 grade in 3 ~ 4m/s, and 4 ~ 5m/s is 2 grades, and 5 ~ 6m/s is 3 grades, and more than 6m/s is 4 grades.Rank is higher,
Risk class is higher.
The windage yaw discharge Weather Risk area distribution such as Fig. 8 institutes determined using this windage yaw discharge Weather Risk Early-warning Model
Show.
Fig. 8 windage yaw discharge Weather Risks Early-warning Model forecast windage yaw discharge Weather Risk area distribution on June 5（④：4 grades,
③：3 grades, 2.：2 grades, 1.：1 grade）
The present invention in view of cause windage yaw discharge high wind and severe weather process it is in close relations, by history windage yaw discharge failure
The analysis of synoptic process, ground, climate factors and weather index before and after occurring, it is proposed that related to windage yaw discharge failure
The whole atmosphere collective model of connection.In this model except considering that wind speed change in itself is outside the pale of civilization, it is also contemplated that close with severe weather process
The change of the key elements such as temperature, the air pressure that cut is closed and the indicative significance of upper-level weather index.And on this basis further combined with
Numerical model forecast result, is adjusted to whole atmosphere collective model, is allowed to adapt to numerical model forecast result, in the time and
Precision spatially is also remarkably improved.This method explicit physical meaning, is merged more preferably, Neng Gougeng with figure pattern forecast result
Exactly to may occur the meteorological condition of windage yaw discharge carry out early warning, contribute to pointedly management and control power networks risk, carry
The operational reliability level of high power system.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure, it is characterised in that：1）Analyze windage yaw discharge failure hair
Synoptic process feature after before death；2 ）Set up windage yaw discharge Weather Risk Early-warning Model.
2. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that：Set up and wind
The whole atmosphere collective model of inclined arcing fault association, comprises the following steps：
1）Analyze the synoptic process feature before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs；
2）Determine surface meteorological factor；
3）Determine the aerological factor；
4）Determine meteorological factor threshold value.
3. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that：Set up windage yaw
Flashover Weather Risk Early-warning Model, comprises the following steps：
1）Determine aerological factor threshold；
2）Determine surface meteorological factor threshold value；
3）High-altitude, surface meteorological factor matching.
4. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that：Analyze windage yaw
Front and rear synoptic process feature occurs for arcing fault；Weather map, radar map before and after occurring with reference to history windage yaw discharge failure, just
Step analysis corresponding with windage yaw discharge failure high low latitude situation and surface synoptic situations, weather phenomenon, summarize windage yaw discharge failure
The variation characteristic of synoptic process before and after occurring.
5. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that：Collect history
Weather station observational data near circuit before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs is analysis wind speed, wind direction, temperature, air pressure, relatively wet
The change in time and space of degree, precipitation key element before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs and during all day gas.
6. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that：Determine high-altitude
Meteorological factor, collects the Sounding Data before and after history windage yaw discharge failure occurs, analyze different isobaris surface wind speed, wind direction, temperature,
The change of air pressure, dew point key element and weather index before and after windage yaw discharge failure occurs and in whole synoptic process.
7. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that：It is determined that meteorological
Factor threshold, it is considered to the difference of the distance of weather station and line fault point, observation time and fault time, and each windage yaw discharge
The corresponding ground of failure, the value of the aerological factor, primarily determine that meteorological factor threshold value.
8. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 3, it is characterised in that：Determine high-altitude
Meteorological factor threshold value, using by when numerical forecast result calculate upper-level weather index, analyze the change of upper-level weather index.
9. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 3, it is characterised in that：Determine ground
Meteorological factor threshold value, Numerical Prediction Models lattice are away from than observing website spacing from small, accordingly, it would be desirable to enter to surface meteorological factor threshold value
Row comparative analysis.
10. the Weather Risk method for early warning of power transmission circuit caused by windage failure as claimed in claim 3, it is characterised in that：High-altitude,
Face meteorological factor matching, the change in high low latitude and the change of terrain feature of weather system have time and spatial diversity.
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