CN102044022A - Emergency rescue decision making system aiming at natural disasters and method thereof - Google Patents
Emergency rescue decision making system aiming at natural disasters and method thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an emergency rescue decision making system aiming at natural disasters and a method thereof. A hardware platform comprises a disaster information data input terminal, a database, an application server, a client decision making terminal, a comprehensive natural-disaster knowledge management terminal, a consultation terminal and a printing terminal; a software platform comprises a disaster information acquisition module, an task intelligent analysis module, an emergency rescue decision making module, a decision making scheme consultation module, a decision making scheme output module, a data management module and a natural disaster knowledge management module. By utilizing the emergency rescue decision making system, after the disaster information is obtained, the intelligent analysis of the decision making task is carried out, decision making is carried out under the support of basic data and knowledge, synergetic consultation of experts can be carried out on the obtained feasible scheme, the decision making scheme is output and implemented, the effect of implementing the decision making scheme is evaluated, and the implemented scheme is successfully stored. In the emergency rescue decision making system, according to the whole process of natural disaster development, corresponding emergency rescue measures are given, decision making support is provided for emergency rescue of the government, and the loss caused by natural disasters is reduced.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to computing machine, artificial intelligence and emergent decision-making in the application in disaster contingency management field, particularly be used for towards disaster automatic rescue decision system and method.
Background technology
Disaster is the spontaneous phenomenon that the whole mankind faces.In recent years, the disaster that the whole world takes place frequently has caused huge life and property loss to human society, and disaster becomes the common challenge that countries in the world face.China is one of country that disaster is the most serious in the world.Be accompanied by fast development of Global climate change and China's economic and urbanization process and constantly accelerate, the resource of China, environment and ecological pressure aggravation, disaster is taken precautions against the reply situation, and sternness is complicated more.The disaster kind is many, the distribution region is wide, occurrence frequency is high, to cause damage heavily be the characteristics of Chinese disaster.Wherein in the period of the 1990-2008 19, cause about 300,000,000 person-times of disaster-stricken, more than 300 ten thousand of collapsed houses, transfer and resettle urgently more than 900 ten thousand person-times of populations, more than 2,000 hundred million yuans of direct economic losses because of all kinds of disasteies every year on average.Period at present and in the future, under the Global climate change background, disaster possibilities such as earthquake, flood, arid, landslide, rubble flow, typhoon, low temperature sleet are freezing, Forset and glassland fire, agricultural disease and pest occur and increase.After entering 21 century, along with The development in society and economy, the gathering of population and wealth, China is severe more in the face of the situation of disaster, and disaster takes place frequent, and the heavy losses that caused have formed the trend of continuous expansion.
In order to respond actively disaster, farthest reduce the loss that disaster is brought the people's life and property, promote social overall, concerted and sustainable development, countries in the world are all in the correlative study of carrying out disaster, the system applies of various relevant disasteies and giving birth to.Set up the protection against and mitigation of earthquake disasters emergency system as government organs such as construction research institutes of Japanese architecture administration; Units such as Russian Academy Of Sciences seismic centre have developed EXTREMUM protection against and mitigation of earthquake disasters system; The HAZUS system of American National building research station development etc.
Through patent office searching's center update search, in Chinese doctorate paper full-text database, the academic dissertation author Hu Zhuowei of Capital Normal University discloses the research of a kind of flood emergency response decision support operation system gordian technique on April 15th, 2007.Comprise that proposition is towards the isomery spatial data management of attitude for a long time of special topic and service technology, based on Hazard Risk Analysis and loss assessment technology, the integrated model bank of flood emergency response decision support and business library technology, three flood emergency response decision support service operation system core technology of calamity body; Also comprise based on object-oriented, soft project, reuse thoughts such as theory, technology such as application space database, Composite Design Mode, The Component Object Model, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) software.This paper stresses to utilize technology such as remote sensing, Geographic Information System and spatial database, the flood risk is carried out predictability assessment and estimation flood loss, realized a kind of data application model of effectively serving flood emergency response vocational work demand.
The applicant is before writing this application for a patent for invention file in addition, and the related invention patent that retrieves in recent years has: the patent " disaster early warning system " of the Liu Gefei application that Patent Office announced on February 16th, 2003 (CN1399146), the patent " hydrographic information detects and the condition of a disaster early warning and alarming system automatically in real time " of Beijing Yanshu Water Science Co., Ltd's application of announcing on February 27th, 2008 (CN101131787), the patent " adopting the flood disaster prediction system of Geographic Information System " of Korea S Inha Ind Partnership Inst application of announcing on February 18th, 2009 (CN101369022), the patent " disaster-proof and flood-proof alarm system " of Hangzhou Meilun Signal Technology Co., Ltd's application of announcing on May 27th, 2009 (CN101441801), the patent " a kind of Forecasting Methodology of city rainstorm flood evolvement process " of Zhejiang University's application of announcing on May 27th, 2009 (CN101441683), the patent of announcing on October 28th, 2009 to the national strength and prestige application " a kind of the condition of a disaster information issue and the device that receives " (CN101567118), the patent " a kind of intelligent early warning system for typhoon and flood based on historical data " of No.2 Middle School Affiliated to Huadong Normal Univ.'s application of announcing on January 27th, 2010 (CN101634721), the patent " method and the related communication devices thereof of management disaster warning notice message pick-up " of the grand international electronics incorporated company application of announcing on February 17th, 2010 (CN101651927), the patent " flood disaster warning water area remote sensing survey method " of Institute of Remote Sensing Application, Academia Sinica's application of announcing on June 9th, 2010 (CN101726731A), the patent " disaster situation warning system " of the Zheng Enhua application of announcing on July 14th, 2010 (CN101776911), the patent of country of the Ministry of Civil Affairs mitigation center application of announcing on August 4th, 2010 " disaster information collection and support method and system " (CN101794432A).
Make a general survey of the system and method for above-mentioned relevant disaster, often all be stress that disaster information obtains, the comprehensive assessment after the early-warning and predicting before the calamity or predictability assessment, the calamity and the research of preventing and reducing natural disasters and the application of engineering properties, the process that breeds, takes place and develop according to disaster does not appear relating to, provide corresponding decision-making measure towards disaster automatic rescue decision system and method.Because disaster is super probability event, after disaster takes place, with respect to the predictability before the obtaining of the condition of a disaster information, the calamity assess and calamity after comprehensive assessment etc. to carry out automatic rescue even more important.So, be badly in need of setting up towards disaster automatic rescue decision system and method in the face of various disasteies.Can be towards disaster automatic rescue decision system and method according to the process that breeds, takes place and develop of disaster, provide corresponding decision scheme, for the government emergency relief provides decision-making foundation so that carry out emergent search operations, thereby reduce the loss that disaster causes.
Summary of the invention
Order of the present invention is: provide a kind of towards disaster automatic rescue decision system and method.This system faces various disasteies, the process that it can breed, take place and develop according to disaster, and intelligence provides corresponding emergency measure, for the government emergency relief provides corresponding decision-making foundation.
Technical scheme of the present invention is:
A kind of towards disaster automatic rescue decision system, comprise the condition of a disaster information entry terminal, database server and application server, the client that constitute in the hardware platform make a strategic decision terminal, comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal, the terminal of holding a conference or consultation and printing terminal, each several part is electrically connected by the network equipment; Wherein:
The condition of a disaster information acquisition terminal is equipped with communicating terminal, ICBM SHF satellite terminal and information entry terminal, is used to obtain multi-source the condition of a disaster information; Database server and application server are equipped with an above knowledge base server, database server, reasoning application server and WEB application server, are used to provide the service of data, knowledge and application; Client's terminal of making a strategic decision is equipped with above client's computer that automatic rescue decision-making terminal is used, and utilizes the decision-making terminal to obtain decision support, and decision analysis is carried out in the disaster automatic rescue; Comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal is equipped with information management terminal and data management terminal, make terminal client be stored in disaster knowledge on the knowledge base server, and be stored in data function on the data server for terminal client provides by the data management terminal management by the information management terminal management; The terminal of holding a conference or consultation is equipped with hold a conference or consultation more than one computer, projector and big screen display screen, is used to provide the service of holding a conference or consultation to scheme; Printing terminal is equipped with the above network printer, printing computer and a plotting apparatus, is used to provide the output print to decision scheme.
Particularly: also be included in database server in the hardware platform and application server, the client system software that runtime database is supported on terminal, the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal of making a strategic decision towards disaster automatic rescue decision system;
The system software of supporting comprises data management module and the disaster knowledge management module that operates on the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal, and with the condition of a disaster information acquisition module, task intelligently parsing module, automatic rescue decision-making module, the decision scheme of described data management module and the mutual convergence analysis of disaster knowledge management module hold a conference or consultation module, decision scheme output module, decision scheme implementation result evaluation module;
Data management module is that basic datas such as geo-spatial data, demographic data, socioeconomic data, traffic network data, warehouse data are managed, for automatic rescue decision-making module and the decision scheme module of holding a conference or consultation provides basic data, the traffic network data comprise railway traffic data and highway communication data and water transportation data;
The condition of a disaster information acquisition module is responsible for fusion treatment and is comprised disaster essential information, the condition of a disaster information and the multi-source heterogeneous data of relief information from what ground PDA, satellite remote sensing, scene, disaster area provided;
The disaster information that task intelligently parsing module provides according to the condition of a disaster information acquisition module, intelligently parsing is towards the emergent decision task of disaster automatic rescue, and the decision task of described automatic rescue comprises in early warning response scheme before the calamity, the calamity in emergency response scheme, the calamity in emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme, the calamity restoration and reconstruction scheme after the emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and calamity;
The automatic rescue decision-making module comprises decision engine, qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making is analyzed, Model Calculation, Decision Fusion is analyzed, the decision task that provides according to task intelligently parsing module, utilize decision engine to call qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making is analyzed, Model Calculation, the Decision Fusion analytic function, geo-spatial data in data management module, demographic data, socioeconomic data, the traffic network data, rule knowledge in warehouse data and the disaster knowledge management module, model knowledge, prediction scheme knowledge, under the support of case knowledge and scheme knowledge, provide corresponding automatic rescue decision scheme;
The decision scheme module of holding a conference or consultation is provided by the emergent decision-making feasible program that provides from the automatic rescue decision-making module, utilize GIS, FLASH, VR visualization technique, collaborative plotting technology to be support with the collaborative technology of holding a conference or consultation, with the knowledge in basic data in the data management module and the disaster knowledge management module is support, on the terminal of holding a conference or consultation, make up the collaborative environment of holding a conference or consultation of disaster so that disaster relief expert carries out the expert to the decision-making feasible program to hold a conference or consultation, generate the automatic rescue decision-making scheme of holding a conference or consultation;
The decision scheme output module is accepted from the decision scheme automatic rescue decision-making of module after the holding a conference or consultation scheme of holding a conference or consultation of holding a conference or consultation, and according to the make a strategic decision actual demand of terminal of client, utilizes the way of output of html form or word form, outputs on the printing terminal to print;
Decision scheme implementation result evaluation module, reception is from the automatic rescue scheme of decision scheme output module, decision scheme implementation result evaluation module is determined disaster success in salvage evaluation index, utilize the network facilities and network-termination device to collect the detailed data of each index, generate the evaluation index matrix, to producing the scheme implementation effect assessment after this matrix employing fuzzy clustering, the step analysis;
The disaster knowledge management module is that the rule knowledge in the disaster, model knowledge, prediction scheme knowledge, case knowledge, scheme knowledge are managed, and the disaster knowledge management module provides the knowledge support for automatic rescue decision-making module and the decision scheme module of holding a conference or consultation simultaneously;
After the hardware platform startup of disaster automatic rescue decision system, the condition of a disaster information entry terminal obtains multi-source the condition of a disaster information by communicating terminal, ICBM SHF satellite terminal and information entry terminal; Operating in database server and application server, client towards the system software of disaster automatic rescue decision system support makes a strategic decision on terminal, the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal; The system software of supporting is input to the condition of a disaster information in the condition of a disaster information acquisition module in the task intelligently parsing module and carries out intelligently parsing; The decision task that the automatic rescue decision-making module is provided according to task intelligently parsing module, under the support of the disaster knowledge that basic data that data management module provides and disaster knowledge management module provide, by the application that decision engine calls qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation, Decision Fusion analytic function, make a strategic decision and obtain the feasible program of making a strategic decision; Resulting decision-making feasible program is input to the decision scheme module of holding a conference or consultation, the automatic rescue feasible program is carried out the expert hold a conference or consultation, obtain the scheme of holding a conference or consultation; The resulting scheme of holding a conference or consultation is carried out scheme output by the decision scheme output module; The implementation result of decision scheme implementation result evaluation module evaluation of programme, the scheme of resulting successful implementation is input in case knowledge in the disaster knowledge management module and the scheme knowledge preserves, so that be from now on disaster automatic rescue decision service.
A kind of being used for towards the method for disaster automatic rescue decision system, the idiographic flow step is as follows:
Beginning starts towards disaster automatic rescue decision system, carries out initialization and basic parameter setting;
The condition of a disaster information is obtained, and obtains disaster information by the condition of a disaster information entry terminal, and for decision process provides indispensable disaster data, the information of acquisition comprises the disaster data that satellite remote sensing, communicating terminal, information entry terminal provide;
The condition of a disaster information fusion is carried out effective fusion to multi-source and polymorphic data, the condition of a disaster information that obtains merging by database server and application server and comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal;
Do you judge whether the condition of a disaster information complete?
If resulting the condition of a disaster information is incomplete, then need calculating according to the actual requirements, reasoning to replenish the condition of a disaster information, adopt Model Calculation, perhaps according to the condition of a disaster data model of being set up, the condition of a disaster evolution knowledge, historical the condition of a disaster case data the indispensable information of the condition of a disaster is replenished, make the condition of a disaster information complete with the method for intelligent inference;
If the condition of a disaster information that obtains is complete, then resulting information to be tested and conflict resolution, check is carried out at redundant data, contradiction data, subordinate data; Data are carried out obtaining disaster information behind the effective conflict resolution; Disaster information is preserved, and is calamity emergency relief decision service in client's terminal of making a strategic decision;
According to resulting disaster information, carrying out decision task determines, decision task adopts the mode of intelligently parsing to carry out, breed, take place and develop the disaster information of different phase according to disaster, in conjunction with economy, geography, the social data message of disaster spot, adopt the mode of knowledge retrieval, reasoning by cases to parse in early warning response scheme before the calamity, the calamity in emergency response scheme, the calamity in emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme, the calamity restoration and reconstruction Scheme Decision-making task after the emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and calamity intelligently;
After determining decision task, decision task decomposes, according to the characteristics separately of restoration and reconstruction scheme after emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and the calamity in emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme, the calamity in emergency response scheme, the calamity in early warning response scheme, the calamity before the calamity decision task is carried out implementation and decompose, the number that decision-executing process decomposes is according to circumstances selected;
According to resulting decision task decomposition result, select reasonable parameter and objective function, generate concrete decision objective;
After decision objective is determined to finish, calling calculating and reasoning makes a strategic decision, need the trade-off decision target to carry out decision process successively, decision process adopts intelligent manner to carry out, in comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal, under the support of basic data and disaster knowledge, make a strategic decision by qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation and Decision Fusion analysis;
According to decision objective, generate the decision recommendation scheme, set up the mathematical model evaluation from efficient, economic loss, the different target of social loss, judge the scheme feasibility according to the result of model;
If scheme is infeasible, need to revise the parameter of decision-making, call calculating and reasoning again and make a strategic decision, until the decision recommendation scheme that is met requirement;
If scheme is feasible, then generate calamity emergency relief proposed projects;
Do you judge that the proposed projects that is generated needs to carry out scheme and holds a conference or consultation? if the suggestion embodiment that is generated need be held a conference or consultation, then need set up the environment of holding a conference or consultation, the environment of holding a conference or consultation is made up of hold a conference or consultation terminal and software environment, the literal, picture, video, audio-frequency information exchange that this software environment has the making of the information of holding a conference or consultation and issue, a strange land user and control, collaboratively mark and draw, digital signature function;
In the environment of holding a conference or consultation, organize the expert proposed projects to be carried out scheme is collaborative holds a conference or consultation; If do not need scheme is held a conference or consultation, then directly proposed projects is generated the decision-making embodiment;
Holding a conference or consultation obtains the emergency disaster relief scheme of holding a conference or consultation, judge whether the scheme of holding a conference or consultation feasible?
If the scheme of holding a conference or consultation of gained does not meet the demands, then need hold a conference or consultation again, until the scheme of holding a conference or consultation that is met requirement;
If the scheme of holding a conference or consultation that is generated meets the demands, the computer of holding a conference or consultation on the terminal of then holding a conference or consultation obtains the scheme of holding a conference or consultation of making a strategic decision;
According to the resulting scheme of holding a conference or consultation, the perhaps proposed projects that will directly obtain, adopt interactive means to generate the decision-making embodiment, the decision-making embodiment that is generated will satisfy the standard of the disaster relief scheme of relevant departments, needs simultaneously to be expressed with the mode intuitively that figure, table, literal combine;
After the decision-making embodiment generates, scheme is exported by printing terminal equipment; The decision-making embodiment is generated concrete operational order, operational order is assigned to respectively relating to calamity department, organize the man power and material to launch automatic rescue activity, scheme implementation by the network equipment and the network terminal of the computer of holding a conference or consultation on the terminal of holding a conference or consultation;
Determine disaster success in salvage evaluation index, utilize the network facilities and network-termination device to collect the detailed data of each index, generate the evaluation index matrix, adopt fuzzy clustering, step analysis that the scheme implementation result is estimated in this matrix simultaneously;
Is judging whether to need to preserve related data case according to the effect of estimating the automatic rescue scheme implementation?
If decision-making embodiment implementation result is good and have typical representativeness, then need integrates every information of this scheme and case data is preserved;
If not, a kind of being used for finishes towards the method step of disaster automatic rescue decision system.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
One, relative prior art, the research of a kind of flood emergency response decision support operation system gordian technique.This paper stresses to utilize technology such as remote sensing, Geographic Information System and spatial database, the flood risk is carried out static evaluation and estimation flood loss, realized a kind of data application model of effectively serving flood emergency response vocational work demand.Traditional disaster decision-making generally all lays particular emphasis on before the calamity after early-warning and predicting or predictability assessment, the calamity single aspect such as comprehensive assessment and considers that this decision-making lacks systematicness and dynamic.
Of the present inventionly provide early warning response scheme before the calamity according to the process that breeds, takes place and develop of disaster towards disaster automatic rescue decision system, emergency response scheme in the calamity, or emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme in the calamity, or restoration and reconstruction scheme after emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and the calamity in the calamity, can be for government emergency relief in time provide the decision-making foundation search operations of meeting an urgent need, thus the loss that national disaster causes reduced.
Comprise the condition of a disaster information data entry terminal, database server and application server, client make a strategic decision terminal, comprehensive natural disaster knowledge management module terminal, the terminal of holding a conference or consultation and printing terminal towards the hardware platform of disaster automatic rescue decision system, also be included in database server in the hardware platform and application server, the client system software that runtime database is supported on terminal, the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal of making a strategic decision towards disaster automatic rescue decision system.
By network communication, system software towards the support of disaster automatic rescue decision system comprises data management module and the disaster knowledge management module that operates on the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal, and with the condition of a disaster information acquisition module, task intelligently parsing module, automatic rescue decision-making module, the decision scheme of described data management module and the mutual convergence analysis of disaster knowledge management module hold a conference or consultation module, decision scheme output module, decision scheme implementation result evaluation module.
After the hardware platform startup of disaster automatic rescue decision system, the condition of a disaster information entry terminal obtains multi-source the condition of a disaster information by communicating terminal, ICBM SHF satellite terminal and information entry terminal; Operating in database server and application server, client towards the system software of disaster automatic rescue decision system support makes a strategic decision on terminal, the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal; The system software of supporting is with the condition of a disaster information
The condition of a disaster information in the acquisition module is input in the task intelligently parsing module carries out intelligently parsing; The decision task that the automatic rescue decision-making module is provided according to task intelligently parsing module, under the support of the disaster knowledge that basic data that data management module provides and disaster knowledge management module provide, by the application that decision engine calls qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation, Decision Fusion analytic function, make a strategic decision and obtain the feasible program of making a strategic decision; Resulting decision-making feasible program is input to the decision scheme module of holding a conference or consultation, the automatic rescue feasible program is carried out the expert hold a conference or consultation, obtain the scheme of holding a conference or consultation; The resulting scheme of holding a conference or consultation is carried out scheme output by the decision scheme output module; The implementation result of decision scheme implementation result evaluation module evaluation of programme, the scheme of resulting successful implementation is input in case knowledge in the disaster knowledge management module and the scheme knowledge preserves, so that be from now on disaster automatic rescue decision service.
Two, a kind of being used for towards the method for disaster automatic rescue decision system, set about from the whole process that disaster take place to develop, adopt that disaster information obtains, task intelligently parsing, automatic rescue decision-making, decision scheme is held a conference or consultation, decision scheme export, the decision scheme implementation result is estimated step generation decision scheme.The disaster information of this method obtains and adopts the multi-source mode to carry out, and has guaranteed the property obtained of disaster information and the validity of data; This method adopts the mode of data fusion that multi-source, isomeric data are handled, and guarantees the consistance and the correctness of data; Having set up databases such as geo-spatial data, demographic data, socioeconomic data, transportation network data, warehouse data provides complete data to support; This method adopts the mode of calculating and reasoning to make a strategic decision, and has utilized the relevant knowledge of automatic rescue and experience in the past; Adopt collaborative mode of holding a conference or consultation finally to determine the relief scheme, made full use of expertise.This method had both shortened the time of decision-making, had satisfied emergent ageing requirement, had guaranteed science and rationality that the decision-making embodiment generates again, had improved the effect that is used for towards disaster automatic rescue decision system method.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the hardware structure diagram towards disaster automatic rescue decision system;
Fig. 2 is support software modular structure figure of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is an automatic rescue decision-making module structural drawing of the present invention;
Fig. 4 is the method flow diagram towards disaster automatic rescue decision system.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with drawings and Examples.
Fig. 1 is the hardware structure diagram towards disaster automatic rescue decision system; System of the present invention mainly is made up of six parts, is respectively: the 1st, and the condition of a disaster information entry terminal, the 2nd, database server and application server, the 3rd, client's terminal of making a strategic decision, the 4th, comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal, the 5th, the terminal of holding a conference or consultation, the 6th, printing terminal, each several part is electrically connected by the network equipment.
The condition of a disaster information acquisition terminal 1 provides the condition of a disaster to obtain function, mainly by utilizing communicating terminal 1a, ICBM SHF satellite terminal 1b, ground artificial information entry terminal 1c etc. to obtain multi-source the condition of a disaster information;
Database server and application server 2 provide the service of data, knowledge and application, comprise knowledge base server 2a, database server 2b, reasoning application server 2c, WEB application server 2d;
Client's terminal 3 of making a strategic decision is made up of many client's computer 3a, 3b, 3c that the automatic rescue decision making function is provided, utilizes terminal to obtain decision support, and decision analysis is carried out in the disaster automatic rescue;
Comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal 4 makes terminal client by the disaster knowledge of information management terminal 4a managed storage on knowledge base server 2a; And provide by the data function of data management terminal 4b managed storage on data server 2b for terminal client;
The terminal of holding a conference or consultation 5 is made up of the computer 5a that holds a conference or consultation, projector 5b, big screen display screen 5c etc., and the service of holding a conference or consultation to scheme mainly is provided;
Printing terminal 6 mainly is made up of institutes such as network printer 6a, printing computer 6b, plotting apparatus 6c, and functions such as decision scheme output print are provided.
Fig. 2 is support software modular structure figure of the present invention; The support software modular structure of system of the present invention mainly is made up of hold a conference or consultation module 15, decision scheme output module 16, decision-making technique implementation result evaluation module 17 and disaster knowledge management module 18 of data management module 11, the condition of a disaster information acquisition module 12, task intelligently parsing module 13, automatic rescue decision-making module 14, decision scheme.
Wherein, data management module 11 and disaster knowledge management module 18 operate in respectively on the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal 4.The basic data that data management module 11 is managed mainly comprises: geo-spatial data, demographic data, socioeconomic data, traffic network data, warehouse data etc.; Disaster knowledge management module 18 comprises disaster comprehensive knowledges such as rule knowledge, model knowledge, prediction scheme knowledge, case knowledge and scheme knowledge is managed.
Fig. 3 is an automatic rescue decision-making module structural drawing of the present invention; Automatic rescue decision-making module 14 mainly is made up of functional modules such as decision engine, qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation, Decision Fusion analyses.Call qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation by decision engine according to decision objective in the decision process and carry out decision analysis and calculating, call the Decision Fusion analysis and the result of qualitative decision-making, quantitative decision making, Model Calculation is merged eliminate the decision-making conflict, generate corresponding automatic rescue decision scheme.
Fig. 4 is the method flow diagram towards disaster automatic rescue decision system.
A kind of being used for towards the method for disaster automatic rescue decision system, the idiographic flow step is as follows:
Beginning (step 100) starts towards disaster automatic rescue decision system, carries out initialization and basic parameter setting;
The condition of a disaster information is obtained (step 110), obtain disaster information by the condition of a disaster information entry terminal 1, for decision process provides indispensable disaster data, the information that is obtained comprises the disaster data that communicating terminal 1a, ICBM SHF satellite terminal 1b, information entry terminal 1c provide;
The condition of a disaster information fusion (step 120) is carried out effective fusion, the condition of a disaster information that obtains merging by database server and application server 2 and 4 pairs of multi-sources of comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal and polymorphic data;
Judge the condition of a disaster information whether complete (step 130);
If resulting the condition of a disaster information is incomplete, then need calculating according to the actual requirements, reasoning to replenish the condition of a disaster information (step 140), adopt Model Calculation, perhaps according to the condition of a disaster data model of being set up, the condition of a disaster evolution knowledge, historical the condition of a disaster case data the indispensable information of the condition of a disaster is replenished, make the condition of a disaster information complete with the method for intelligent inference;
If the condition of a disaster information that obtains is complete, then resulting information to be tested and conflict resolution (step 150), check is carried out at redundant data, contradiction data, subordinate data;
Data are carried out obtaining disaster information (step 160) behind the effective conflict resolution;
Disaster information is preserved (step 170), succours decision service in client's terminal 3 of making a strategic decision for calamity emergency;
According to resulting disaster information, carry out decision task and determine (step 180), decision task adopts the mode of intelligently parsing to carry out, breed, take place and develop the disaster information of different phase according to disaster, in conjunction with economy, geography, the social data message of disaster spot, adopt the mode of knowledge retrieval, reasoning by cases to parse in early warning response scheme before the calamity, the calamity in emergency response scheme, the calamity in emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme, the calamity restoration and reconstruction Scheme Decision-making task after the emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and calamity intelligently;
After determining decision task, decision task decompose (step 190) according to calamity before in the early warning response scheme, calamity in emergency response scheme, the calamity in emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme, the calamity after emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and the calamity characteristics separately of restoration and reconstruction scheme decision task carried out implementation decompose, the number that decision-executing process decomposes is according to circumstances selected; According to resulting decision task decomposition result, select reasonable parameter and objective function, generate concrete decision objective (step 200);
After decision objective is determined to finish, call and calculate and reasoning make a strategic decision (step 210), need the trade-off decision target to carry out decision process successively, decision process adopts intelligent manner to carry out, in comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal 4, under the support of basic data and disaster knowledge, call qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation and Decision Fusion analysis by decision engine and make a strategic decision;
According to decision objective, generate decision recommendation scheme (step 220);
Set up the mathematical model evaluation from efficient, economic loss, the different target of social loss, judge scheme feasibility (step 230) according to the result of model;
If scheme is infeasible, need to revise the parameter of decision-making, jump to step (210) and re-execute, until the decision recommendation scheme that is met requirement;
If scheme is feasible, then generate calamity emergency relief proposed projects (step 240);
Do you judge that the proposed projects that is generated needs to carry out scheme and holds a conference or consultation? (step 250);
If the suggestion embodiment that is generated need be held a conference or consultation, then need set up the environment (step 260) of holding a conference or consultation, the environment of holding a conference or consultation is made up of hold a conference or consultation terminal 5 and software environment, the literal, picture, video, audio-frequency information exchange that this software environment has the making of the information of holding a conference or consultation and issue, a strange land user and control, collaboratively mark and draw, digital signature function;
In the environment of holding a conference or consultation, organize the expert that proposed projects is carried out scheme collaborative hold a conference or consultation (step 270);
If do not need scheme is held a conference or consultation, then directly jump to step (300);
Holding a conference or consultation obtains the emergency disaster relief scheme of holding a conference or consultation, and judges the scheme of holding a conference or consultation whether feasible (step 280); If the scheme of holding a conference or consultation of gained does not meet the demands, then jump to step (270), need hold a conference or consultation again, until the scheme of holding a conference or consultation that is met requirement;
If the scheme of holding a conference or consultation that is generated meets the demands, the computer 5a that holds a conference or consultation on the terminal of then holding a conference or consultation 5 obtains the scheme (step 290) of holding a conference or consultation of making a strategic decision;
According to the resulting scheme of holding a conference or consultation, the perhaps proposed projects that will directly obtain, adopt interactive means to generate decision-making embodiment (step 300), the decision-making embodiment that is generated will satisfy the standard of the disaster relief scheme of relevant departments, needs simultaneously to be expressed with the mode intuitively that figure, table, literal combine;
After decision-making embodiment (step 300) generates, scheme is exported (step 310) by printing terminal 6;
The decision-making embodiment is generated concrete operational order, operational order is assigned to respectively relating to calamity department, organize the man power and material to launch the automatic rescue activity, scheme implementation (step 320) by the network equipment and the network terminal of the computer 5a that holds a conference or consultation on the terminal 5 of holding a conference or consultation;
Determine disaster success in salvage evaluation index, utilize the network facilities and network-termination device to collect the detailed data of each index, generate the evaluation index matrix, simultaneously this matrix is adopted fuzzy clustering, step analysis that the scheme implementation result is estimated (step 330);
Is judging whether to need to preserve related data case according to the effect of estimating the automatic rescue scheme implementation? (step 340);
If decision-making embodiment implementation result is good and have typical representativeness, then need integrates every information of this scheme and case data is preserved (step 350);
If not, a kind of being used for finishes (step 360) towards the method for disaster automatic rescue decision system.
Claims (4)
1. one kind towards disaster automatic rescue decision system, comprise the condition of a disaster information entry terminal (1), database server and application server (2), the client that constitute in the hardware platform make a strategic decision terminal (3), comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal (4), the terminal of holding a conference or consultation (5) and printing terminal (6), each several part is electrically connected by the network equipment; Wherein:
Described the condition of a disaster information acquisition terminal (1) is equipped with communicating terminal (1a), ICBM SHF satellite terminal (1b) and information entry terminal (1c), is used to obtain multi-source the condition of a disaster information;
Described database server and application server (2) are equipped with an above knowledge base server (2a), database server (2b), reasoning application server (2c) and WEB application server (2d), are used to provide the service of data, knowledge and application;
The described client terminal (3) of making a strategic decision is equipped with above client's computer (3a) that automatic rescue decision-making terminal uses, (3b) and (3c), utilizes the terminal of making a strategic decision to obtain decision support, and decision analysis is carried out in the disaster automatic rescue;
Described comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal (4) is equipped with information management terminal (4a) and data management terminal (4b), make terminal client by the disaster knowledge of information management terminal (4a) managed storage on knowledge base server (2a), and provide by the basic data function of data management terminal (4b) managed storage on data server (2b) for terminal client;
The described terminal of holding a conference or consultation (5) is equipped with the computer (5a) of holding a conference or consultation more than, projector (5b) and big screen display screen (5c), is used to provide the service of holding a conference or consultation to scheme;
Described printing terminal (6) is equipped with an above network printer (6a), printing computer (6b) and plotting apparatus (6c), is used to provide the output print to decision scheme;
It is characterized in that:
Describedly also be included in make a strategic decision terminal (3), comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal (4) of database server in the hardware platform and application server (2), client towards disaster automatic rescue decision system and go up the system software that runtime database is supported;
The system software of described support comprises data management module (11) and the disaster knowledge management module (18) that operates on the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal (4), and with the condition of a disaster information acquisition module (12), task intelligently parsing module (13), automatic rescue decision-making module (14), the decision scheme of the mutual convergence analysis of described data management module (11) and disaster knowledge management module (18) hold a conference or consultation module (15), decision scheme output module (16), decision scheme implementation result evaluation module (17);
Described data management module (11) is that geo-spatial data, demographic data, socioeconomic data, traffic network data, warehouse data are managed, for automatic rescue decision-making module (14) and the decision scheme module (15) of holding a conference or consultation provides basic data;
Described the condition of a disaster information acquisition module (12) is responsible for fusion treatment and is comprised disaster essential information, the condition of a disaster information and the multi-source heterogeneous data of relief information from what ground PDA, satellite remote sensing, scene, disaster area provided;
The disaster information that described task intelligently parsing module (13) provides according to the condition of a disaster information acquisition module (12), intelligently parsing is towards the emergent decision task of disaster automatic rescue;
The decision task that described automatic rescue decision-making module (14) provides according to task intelligently parsing module (13), utilize decision engine to call qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation, Decision Fusion analytic function, under the support of rule knowledge, model knowledge, prediction scheme knowledge, case knowledge and scheme knowledge in the geo-spatial data in data management module (11), demographic data, socioeconomic data, traffic network data, warehouse data and the disaster knowledge management module (18), provide corresponding automatic rescue decision scheme;
The described decision scheme module (15) of holding a conference or consultation is provided by the emergent decision-making feasible program that provides from automatic rescue decision-making module (14), utilize GIS, FLASH, VR visualization technique, collaborative plotting technology to be support with the collaborative technology of holding a conference or consultation, with the disaster knowledge in basic data in the data management module (11) and the disaster knowledge management module (18) is support, go up to make up the collaborative environment of holding a conference or consultation of disaster so that disaster relief expert carries out the expert to the decision-making feasible program to hold a conference or consultation in the terminal of holding a conference or consultation (5), generate the automatic rescue decision-making scheme of holding a conference or consultation;
Described decision scheme output module (16) is accepted from the decision scheme automatic rescue decision-making of module (15) after the holding a conference or consultation scheme of holding a conference or consultation of holding a conference or consultation, according to the make a strategic decision actual demand of terminal (3) of client, utilize the way of output of html form or word form, output on the printing terminal (6) and print; Described decision scheme implementation result evaluation module (17), reception is from the automatic rescue scheme of decision scheme output module (16), decision scheme implementation result evaluation module (17) is determined disaster success in salvage evaluation index, utilize the network facilities and network-termination device to collect the detailed data of each index, generate the evaluation index matrix, to producing the scheme implementation effect assessment after this matrix employing fuzzy clustering, the step analysis;
Described disaster knowledge management module (18) is that the rule knowledge in the disaster, model knowledge, prediction scheme knowledge, case knowledge, scheme knowledge are managed, and disaster knowledge management module (18) provides the knowledge support for automatic rescue decision-making module (14) and the decision scheme module (15) of holding a conference or consultation simultaneously;
After described hardware platform towards disaster automatic rescue decision system started, the condition of a disaster information entry terminal (1) obtained multi-source the condition of a disaster information by communicating terminal (1a), ICBM SHF satellite terminal (1b) and information entry terminal (1c); Operating in database server and application server (2), client towards the system software of disaster automatic rescue decision system support makes a strategic decision on terminal (3), the comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal (4); The system software of described support is input to the condition of a disaster information in the condition of a disaster information acquisition module (12) in the task intelligently parsing module (13) and carries out intelligently parsing; The decision task that automatic rescue decision-making module (14) is provided according to task intelligently parsing module (13), under the support of the disaster knowledge that basic data that data management module (11) provides and disaster knowledge management module (18) provide, by the application that decision engine calls qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation, Decision Fusion analytic function, make a strategic decision and obtain the feasible program of making a strategic decision; Resulting decision-making feasible program is input to the decision scheme module (15) of holding a conference or consultation, the automatic rescue feasible program is carried out the expert hold a conference or consultation, obtain the scheme of holding a conference or consultation; The resulting scheme of holding a conference or consultation is carried out scheme output by decision scheme output module (16); The implementation result of decision scheme implementation result evaluation module (17) evaluation of programme, the scheme of resulting successful implementation is input in case knowledge in the disaster knowledge management module (18) and the scheme knowledge preserves, so that be from now on disaster automatic rescue decision service.
2. described a kind of towards disaster automatic rescue decision system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described emergent decision task towards the disaster automatic rescue comprises early warning response scheme before the calamity, emergency response scheme in the calamity, or emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme in the calamity, or restoration and reconstruction scheme after emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and the calamity in the calamity.
3. one kind is used for towards the method for disaster automatic rescue decision system, and the idiographic flow step is as follows:
Beginning (step 100), a kind of being used for starts towards disaster automatic rescue decision system, carries out initialization and basic parameter setting;
The condition of a disaster information is obtained (step 110), obtains the condition of a disaster information by the condition of a disaster information entry terminal (1), for decision process provides indispensable disaster data;
The condition of a disaster information fusion (step 120) is carried out effective fusion to multi-source and polymorphic data, the condition of a disaster information that obtains merging by database server and application server (2) and comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal (4);
Judge the condition of a disaster information whether complete (step 130);
If resulting the condition of a disaster information is incomplete, then need calculating according to the actual requirements, reasoning to replenish the condition of a disaster information (step 140);
If the condition of a disaster information that obtains is complete, then resulting information is carried out the information collision check, cleared up (step 150), check redundant data, contradiction data, subordinate data;
Data are carried out obtaining disaster information (step 160) behind the effective conflict resolution;
Disaster information is preserved (step 170), succours decision service in client's terminal (3) of making a strategic decision for calamity emergency;
According to resulting disaster information, carry out decision task and determine (step 180), parse in early warning response scheme before the calamity, the calamity in emergency response scheme, the calamity in emergency disaster relief material requirements scheme, the calamity restoration and reconstruction Scheme Decision-making task after the emergency disaster relief distribution of materials scheme and calamity intelligently;
Decision task decomposes (step 190), and the number that the decision task implementation is decomposed is according to circumstances selected;
According to resulting decision task decomposition result, select reasonable parameter and objective function, generate concrete decision objective (step 200);
After decision objective is determined to finish, call and calculate and reasoning make a strategic decision (step 210), in comprehensive natural disaster information management terminal (4), under the support of basic data and disaster knowledge, utilize qualitative decision-making reasoning, quantitative decision making analysis, Model Calculation and Decision Fusion analysis to make a strategic decision;
According to decision objective, generate decision recommendation scheme (step 220);
Set up the mathematical model evaluation from efficient, economic loss, the different target of social loss, result according to model judges scheme feasibility (step 230), if scheme is infeasible, needs to revise the parameter of decision-making, jump to step (210) and re-execute, until the decision recommendation scheme that is met requirement;
If scheme is feasible, then generate calamity emergency relief proposed projects (step 240);
Do you judge that the proposed projects that is generated needs to carry out scheme and holds a conference or consultation? (step 250) if do not need scheme is held a conference or consultation, then directly jumps to step (300) and generates the decision-making embodiment;
If need the decision-making proposed projects is held a conference or consultation, then set up the environment (step 260) of holding a conference or consultation, the environment of holding a conference or consultation is made up of terminal of holding a conference or consultation (5) and software environment;
In the environment of holding a conference or consultation, organize the expert that proposed projects is carried out scheme collaborative hold a conference or consultation (step 270);
Holding a conference or consultation obtains the emergency disaster relief scheme of holding a conference or consultation, judge whether the scheme of holding a conference or consultation feasible? (step 280) if the scheme of holding a conference or consultation of gained does not meet the demands, then jumps to step (270) and carries out again that scheme is collaborative holds a conference or consultation, until the scheme of holding a conference or consultation that is met requirement;
If the scheme of holding a conference or consultation that is generated meets the demands, the computer of holding a conference or consultation (5a) on the terminal of then holding a conference or consultation (5) obtains the scheme (step 290) of holding a conference or consultation of making a strategic decision;
According to the resulting scheme of holding a conference or consultation, perhaps the proposed projects that will directly obtain adopts interactive means to generate decision-making embodiment (step 300);
After decision-making embodiment (step 300) generates, scheme is exported (step 310) by the equipment of printing terminal (6);
The embodiment of will making a strategic decision generates the concrete operations instruction, by the terminal of holding a conference or consultation (5) the concrete operations instruction issuing is respectively related to calamity department, organizes the man power and material to launch the automatic rescue activity, carries out scheme implementation (step 320);
Determine disaster success in salvage evaluation index, generate the evaluation index matrix, simultaneously this matrix is adopted fuzzy clustering, step analysis that the scheme implementation result is estimated (step 330);
Is judging whether to need to preserve related data case according to the effect of estimating the automatic rescue scheme implementation? (step 340);
If decision-making embodiment implementation result is good and have typical representativeness, then need integrates every information of this scheme and case data is preserved (step 350);
If not, a kind of being used for finishes (step 360) towards the method step of disaster automatic rescue decision system.
4. according to claim 3 described a kind of being used for towards the method for disaster automatic rescue decision system, it is characterized in that: the described environment of holding a conference or consultation is made up of terminal of holding a conference or consultation (5) and software environment, the literal, picture, video, audio-frequency information exchange that described software environment has the making of the information of holding a conference or consultation and issue, a strange land user and control, collaboratively mark and draw, digital signature function.
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