CN104376420A - Water breakthrough risk evaluation method and evaluation device for water-carrying gas reservoir gas well - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a water breakthrough risk evaluation method and evaluation device for a water-carrying gas reservoir gas well. The method includes the following steps that an evaluation factor which influences a water breakthrough risk of the water-carrying gas reservoir gas well is built; the weight vector of the evaluation factor is obtained on the basis of the analytic hierarchy process; a fuzzy relation matrix between the water breakthrough risk of the water-carrying gas reservoir gas well and the evaluation factor is built; the fuzzy relation matrix and the weight vector are combined according to a weighted average fuzzy composition operator, and a comprehensive evaluation result of the water breakthrough risk of the water-carrying gas reservoir gas well is obtained. The water breakthrough risk evaluation method and evaluation device improve accuracy of the evaluation result of the water breakthrough risk of the gas well, and the evaluation result which more accords with actual water breakthrough risk situations of the water-carrying gas reservoir gas well can be obtained.

Description

There are Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method and evaluating apparatus

Technical field

The present invention relates to construction of natural gas fields technical field, especially relating to one has Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method and evaluating apparatus.

Background technology

Concerning the gas reservoir development having stronger edge-bottom water energy, gas well, once water breakthrough, not only causes a lot of trouble to engineering aspects such as floor treatment, can greatly reduce gas well capacity simultaneously, cause gas well to yield poorly and closing well too early, thus greatly affect gas deposit recovery efficiency and final development effectiveness.Therefore, to having Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk to evaluate to be in gas reservoir development process an important research project.

At present, the evaluation of gas well water breakthrough risk is mainly studied to the evaluation of prediction and the water enchroachment (invasion) type being the water breakthrough time both at home and abroad.Wherein, water breakthrough time Forecasting Methodology adopts water-cone breakthrough Time Calculation formula to predict the concrete water breakthrough time of gas well, but because actual gas reservoir nonuniformity is comparatively strong and in gas well liquid loading process, system constantly adjusts, cause adopting these methods to carry out the prediction of gas well water breakthrough or water enchroachment (invasion), larger with actual conditions gap.Also have and adopt the method such as material balance method and gas reservoir water influx rate indicative curve to predict gas well water enchroachment (invasion), but the method application also compares limitation, because the method needs gas well test more static pressure data point and just can reach good prediction after having certain recovery percent of reserves, but during actual gas well static pressure test point usually less and a lot of well water breakthrough, recovery percent of reserves is still lower.Therefore, the water breakthrough risk evaluation results obtained according to prior art is at present difficult to the water breakthrough risk that objective reality reflection has Gas Reservoirs gas well reality.

Summary of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide one to have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method and evaluating apparatus, have the water breakthrough risk of Gas Reservoirs gas well reality to make the water breakthrough risk evaluation results of acquisition more meet.

Achieve the above object, on the one hand, the invention provides one has Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, comprises the following steps:

Build the evaluation points that impact has Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk;

The weight vectors of described evaluation points is obtained based on analytical hierarchy process;

The fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points is had described in structure;

According to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors are synthesized, described in acquisition, have the comprehensive evaluation result of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, and described impact has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk to include Gas Reservoirs gas well:

Structure and Sedimentary facies, it comprises structure and trap feature, fracture characteristic, fracture intensity and rock type and sedimentary facies;

Reservoir characteristic, it comprises every interlayer feature, Reservoir type, sand body connectedness and reservoir heterogeneity;

Drilling information, it comprises drilling quality, cementing quality and perforation apart from edge-bottom water distance;

Production development and Monitoring Data, it comprises gas-producing profile test result, saturation degree well logging result and transient testing evaluation result;

Dynamic evaluation and predicting the outcome, it comprises output and pressure variation characteristic, the unstable analysis result of output, single well controlled reserves, water cone production rate limit and water breakthrough breakthrough time predict the outcome.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, and the described weight vectors obtaining described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process, specifically comprises:

Each evaluation points under same level is compared between two to the judgment matrix M obtaining quantizing:

$M=\left(\begin{array}{cccc}{m}_{11}& m_{12}& \·\·\·& m_{1j}\\ m_{21}& m_{22}& \·\·\·& m_{2j}\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ m_{i1}& m_{i2}& \·\·\·& m_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right)$

Wherein, m _ijrepresent that evaluation points i is to the weight of evaluation points j;

Calculate the Maximum characteristic root λ of described judgment matrix M _maxand characteristic of correspondence vector, described proper vector is that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points under same level distributes;

Consistency desired result is carried out to described proper vector;

If described proper vector by described consistency desired result, then calculates the product Q of each row element of described judgment matrix M _i, wherein,

Calculate described Q _in th Root obtain vector this vector is normalized, obtains the weight vectors of described evaluation points.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, described in have the fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points to be:

Wherein, p capable m column element r in fuzzy relationship matrix r _pmgas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk is had from evaluation points u described in expression _pto the degree of membership of described proper vector.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, describedly described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors synthesized according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, specifically comprises:

According to formula $b_i=\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(a_i\·r_{\mathrm{ij}})=\min (1,\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{a}_i\·r_{\mathrm{ij}}),j=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·m,$ Described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors are synthesized;

In formula, b _i, a _i, r _ijbe respectively the degree of membership that the degree of membership being under the jurisdiction of jth grade, the weight of i-th evaluation points and i-th evaluation points are under the jurisdiction of jth grade.

On the other hand, present invention also offers one has Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, comprising:

Evaluation points builds module, has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk for building impact;

Weight vectors acquisition module, for obtaining the weight vectors of described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process;

Fuzzy matrix builds module, for there being the fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points described in building;

Matrix and vectorial synthesis module, for described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors being synthesized according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, have the comprehensive evaluation result of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk described in acquisition.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, and described impact has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk to include Gas Reservoirs gas well:

Structure and Sedimentary facies, it comprises structure and trap feature, fracture characteristic, fracture intensity and rock type and sedimentary facies;

Reservoir characteristic, it comprises every interlayer feature, Reservoir type, sand body connectedness and reservoir heterogeneity;

Drilling information, it comprises drilling quality, cementing quality and perforation apart from edge-bottom water distance;

Production development and Monitoring Data, it comprises gas-producing profile test result, saturation degree well logging result and transient testing evaluation result;

Dynamic evaluation and predicting the outcome, it comprises output and pressure variation characteristic, the unstable analysis result of output, single well controlled reserves, water cone production rate limit and water breakthrough breakthrough time predict the outcome.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, and the described weight vectors obtaining described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process, specifically comprises:

Each evaluation points under same level is compared between two to the judgment matrix M obtaining quantizing:

$M=\left(\begin{array}{cccc}{m}_{11}& m_{12}& \·\·\·& m_{1j}\\ m_{21}& m_{22}& \·\·\·& m_{2j}\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ m_{i1}& m_{i2}& \·\·\·& m_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right)$

Wherein, m _ijrepresent that evaluation points i is to the weight of evaluation points j;

Calculate the Maximum characteristic root λ of described judgment matrix M _maxand characteristic of correspondence vector, described proper vector is that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points under same level distributes;

Consistency desired result is carried out to described proper vector;

If described proper vector by described consistency desired result, then calculates the product Q of each row element of described judgment matrix M _i, wherein,

Calculate described Q _in th Root obtain vector this vector is normalized, obtains the weight vectors of described evaluation points.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, described in have the fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points to be:

Wherein, p capable m column element r in fuzzy relationship matrix r _pmgas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk is had from evaluation points u described in expression _pto the degree of membership of described proper vector.

Of the present invention have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, describedly described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors synthesized according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, specifically comprises:

According to formula $b_i=\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(a_i\·r_{\mathrm{ij}})=\min (1,\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{a}_i\·r_{\mathrm{ij}}),j=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·m,$ Described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors are synthesized;

In formula, b _i, a _i, r _ijbe respectively the degree of membership that the degree of membership being under the jurisdiction of jth grade, the weight of i-th evaluation points and i-th evaluation points are under the jurisdiction of jth grade.

The mode that the present invention uses analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy synthetic appraisement method to combine carries out quantitative evaluation to water breakthrough risk, because analytical hierarchy process is a systematic research method, it is according to decomposition, multilevel iudge and comprehensive method of thinking are passed judgment on, therefore, the present invention adopts analytical hierarchy process to determine that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points of gas well water breakthrough risk has better rationality, more meet objective reality and be easy to quantificational expression, thus improve the accuracy of follow-up Result of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation, the evaluation result more meeting and have the actual water breakthrough risk situation of Gas Reservoirs gas well can be obtained.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Accompanying drawing described herein is used to provide a further understanding of the present invention, forms a application's part, does not form limitation of the invention.In the accompanying drawings:

Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram having Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method of the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 2 a is that the actual output of A well in Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method that has of the embodiment of the present invention bores the relativity curve synoptic diagram of production rate limit with the water calculated based on Chaperon method;

Fig. 2 b is that the actual output of B well in Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method that has of the embodiment of the present invention bores the relativity curve synoptic diagram of production rate limit with the water calculated based on Chaperon method;

Fig. 2 c is that the actual output of C well in Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method that has of the embodiment of the present invention bores the relativity curve synoptic diagram of production rate limit with the water calculated based on Chaperon method;

Fig. 2 d is that the actual output of D well in Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method that has of the embodiment of the present invention bores the relativity curve synoptic diagram of production rate limit with the water calculated based on Chaperon method.

Embodiment

For making the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearly understand, below in conjunction with embodiment and accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further details.At this, schematic description and description of the present invention is for explaining the present invention, but not as a limitation of the invention.

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the specific embodiment of the present invention is described in further detail.

Shown in figure 1, the Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method that has of the embodiment of the present invention comprises the following steps:

Step S101, structure affect the evaluation points having Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk.In the embodiment of the present invention, impact has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk to be shown in Table 1:

Table 1 water breakthrough risk two rank evaluation points

Wherein, water enchroachment (invasion) in fact also has larger impact to the Production development of gas well, and during non-water enchroachment (invasion), gas well is not subject to any pressure and supplements, and the Production development of gas well shows as the feature of closed gas reservoir.Water enchroachment (invasion) initial stage gas well is subject to water energy and supplements, slow during the stable yield situation downforce meeting non-water enchroachment (invasion) of suppression ratio.During the water enchroachment (invasion) middle and later periods, especially edge-bottom water is advanced by leaps and bounds all around well, and gas flowing is obviously subject to resistance, and under identical output condition, gas well liquid loading pressure reduction obviously increases.The characteristic of production dynamic of water enchroachment (invasion) different phase is summed up as shown in table 2.Here the identification of Production development change to water enchroachment (invasion) just in exemplary explanation stable yield or pressure stability situation, for actual gas well yield, pressure complicated production dynamic change situation, can adopt this pattern to carry out similar analysis.

Table 2 gas well liquid loading dynamic data is to the diagnosis of water enchroachment (invasion) situation

In addition, in the embodiment of the present invention, bore production rate limit evaluation method by selecting the water of applicable gas reservoir to evaluate individual well water cone production rate limit, and draw individual well actual production daily output tolerance and water bores the correlation curve of production rate limit, bore with gas well output and water the identification that production rate limit relation carries out gas well water enchroachment (invasion) or water breakthrough.Fig. 2 a-2d gives the relativity curve that water that the possible gas well actual output of corresponding four kinds of A, B, C, D tetra-mouthfuls of wells and Chaperon method calculate bores production rate limit.Production rate limit relation is bored from gas well output and water, 4 mouthfuls of wells in Fig. 2 a-2d sort as D, C, B, A according to possible water breakthrough risk class successively, the i.e. the easiest water breakthrough of D, because D produces higher than critical output always, very easily forms water cone or causes limit overflow to enter.A water breakthrough the latest, because A well is produced lower than critical output always, does not form water cone.Certainly, utilize Blasingame output instability to analyze typical curve, stream material equilibria curve etc. and also can tentatively gas well water enchroachment (invasion) situation be judged, and well is classified, also can judge that gas well water breakthrough sooner or later by initial characterization.

Step S102, obtain the weight vectors of described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process.Concrete:

First, each evaluation points under same level is compared between two to the judgment matrix M obtaining quantizing:

$M=\left(\begin{array}{cccc}{m}_{11}& m_{12}& \·\·\·& m_{1j}\\ m_{21}& m_{22}& \·\·\·& m_{2j}\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ m_{i1}& m_{i2}& \·\·\·& m_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right)$

Wherein, m _ijrepresent that evaluation points i is to the weight of evaluation points j;

Then, the Maximum characteristic root λ of described judgment matrix M is calculated _maxand characteristic of correspondence vector, described proper vector is that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points under same level distributes, the importance ranking of each evaluation points under its sign same level;

Secondly, consistency desired result is carried out to described proper vector; For whether judging characteristic vector is effective, need to carry out consistency check to judgment matrix M, need calculation deviation coincident indicator it is with random method construct 500 sample matrix, building method is that to fill up the upper triangle of sample matrix with scale and their inverse randomly every, the every numerical value of principal diagonal is always 1, and corresponding transposition location entries then adopts the inverse of above-mentioned correspondence position random number.Then to its consistance desired value of each random sample matrix computations, on average namely Aver-age Random Consistency Index RI value is obtained to these CI values.When random Consistency Ratio time, think that the result that step analysis is sorted has satisfied consistance, namely the distribution of weight coefficient is rational; Otherwise, reset the element value of judgment matrix M, redistribute the value of weight coefficient.

Again, if described proper vector is by described consistency desired result, then the product Q of each row element of described judgment matrix M is calculated _i, wherein,

Finally, described Q is calculated _in th Root obtain vector this vector is normalized, obtains the weight vectors of described evaluation points.

The fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points is had described in step S103, structure:

Wherein, p capable m column element r in fuzzy relationship matrix r _pmgas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk is had from evaluation points u described in expression _pto the degree of membership of described proper vector.

Step S104, according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors to be synthesized, described in acquisition, have the comprehensive evaluation result of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk.Concrete:

Max min algorithm conventional in fuzzy overall evaluation, when evaluation points is more, the weight that each evaluation points is got is usually very little, like this in fuzzy composition computing, information dropout is a lot, often causes result not easily to differentiate the situation with unreasonable (namely model lost efficacy).So for the problems referred to above, adopt the Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators of weighted mean type here, to reduce information dropout, its computing formula is:

$b_i=\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(a_i\·r_{\mathrm{ij}})=\min (1,\underset{i=1}{\overset{p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{a}_i\·r_{\mathrm{ij}}),j=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·m,$

In formula, b _i, a _i, r _ijbe respectively the degree of membership that the degree of membership being under the jurisdiction of jth grade, the weight of i-th evaluation points and i-th evaluation points are under the jurisdiction of jth grade.

When there being multiple individual well, the comprehensive evaluation result of the well water breakthrough risk of each individual well can be obtained according to above-mentioned evaluation method.Further, if needed, can also the water breakthrough Risk Comprehensive Evaluation result of the multiple individual wells obtained be graded and be sorted, such as, use weighted mean to ask the method being subordinate to grade to carry out rank position sequence to multiple individual well according to its water breakthrough Risk Comprehensive Evaluation result.

In addition, the evaluation method of the embodiment of the present invention is very good at each Gas Fields effect of PetroChina Company Limited.'s Tarim Oilfield, and predictablity rate is high.By to after the gas well water breakthrough Risk Comprehensive Evaluation of each gas field, optimize and revise each Gas Fields gas well output, on maintenance overall yield even running basis, gas field, avoid part gas well and do sth. in advance water breakthrough and affect output and recovery ratio, substantially increase the development effectiveness of each Gas Fields.In addition, result of practical application shows, the evaluation method of the embodiment of the present invention is at least applicable to the water breakthrough risk assessment of domestic each large-scale edge-bottom water gas reservoir.

The mode that the embodiment of the present invention uses analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy synthetic appraisement method to combine carries out quantitative evaluation to water breakthrough risk, because analytical hierarchy process is a systematic research method, it is passed judgment on according to decomposition, multilevel iudge and comprehensive method of thinking, therefore, the embodiment of the present invention adopts analytical hierarchy process to determine that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points of gas well water breakthrough risk has better rationality, more meet objective reality and be easy to quantificational expression, thus improve the accuracy of follow-up Result of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.

There is Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method corresponding with above-mentioned, the Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device that has of the embodiment of the present invention comprises evaluation points structure module, weight vectors acquisition module, fuzzy matrix structure module and matrix and vectorial synthesis module, wherein:

Evaluation points builds module, has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk for building impact.Concrete evaluation points can see the step S101 of said method embodiment.

Weight vectors acquisition module, for obtaining the weight vectors of described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process.Concrete can see the step S102 of said method embodiment.

Fuzzy matrix builds module, for there being the fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points described in building.Concrete can see the step S103 of said method embodiment.

Matrix and vectorial synthesis module, for described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors being synthesized according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, have the comprehensive evaluation result of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk described in acquisition.Concrete can see the step S104 of said method embodiment.

The mode that the embodiment of the present invention uses analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy synthetic appraisement method to combine carries out quantitative evaluation to water breakthrough risk, because analytical hierarchy process is a systematic research method, it is passed judgment on according to decomposition, multilevel iudge and comprehensive method of thinking, therefore, the embodiment of the present invention adopts analytical hierarchy process to determine that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points of gas well water breakthrough risk has better rationality, more meet objective reality and be easy to quantificational expression, thus improve the accuracy of follow-up Result of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.

Those skilled in the art can also recognize that various illustrative components, blocks, unit and step that the embodiment of the present invention is listed can be realized by hardware, software or both combinations.So to being realized the designing requirement depending on specific application and whole system by hardware or software.Those skilled in the art for often kind of specifically application, can use the function described in the realization of various method, but this realization can should not be understood to the scope exceeding embodiment of the present invention protection.

Various illustrative logical block described in the embodiment of the present invention, or unit can pass through general processor, digital signal processor, special IC (ASIC), field programmable gate array or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, or the design of above-mentioned any combination realizes or operates described function.General processor can be microprocessor, and alternatively, this general processor also can be any traditional processor, controller, microcontroller or state machine.Processor also can be realized by the combination of calculation element, such as digital signal processor and microprocessor, multi-microprocessor, and a Digital Signal Processor Core combined by one or more microprocessor, or other similar configuration any realizes.

The software module that method described in the embodiment of the present invention or the step of algorithm directly can embed hardware, processor performs or the combination of both.Software module can be stored in the storage medium of other arbitrary form in RAM storer, flash memory, ROM storer, eprom memory, eeprom memory, register, hard disk, moveable magnetic disc, CD-ROM or this area.Exemplarily, storage medium can be connected with processor, with make processor can from storage medium reading information, and write information can be deposited to storage medium.Alternatively, storage medium can also be integrated in processor.Processor and storage medium can be arranged in ASIC, and ASIC can be arranged in user terminal.Alternatively, processor and storage medium also can be arranged in the different parts in user terminal.

In one or more exemplary design, the above-mentioned functions described by the embodiment of the present invention can realize in the combination in any of hardware, software, firmware or this three.If realized in software, these functions can store on the medium with computer-readable, or are transmitted on the medium of computer-readable with one or more instruction or code form.Computer readable medium comprises computer storage medium and is convenient to make to allow computer program transfer to the telecommunication media in other place from a place.Storage medium can be that any general or special computer can the useable medium of access.Such as, such computer readable media can include but not limited to RAM, ROM, EEPROM, CD-ROM or other optical disc storage, disk storage or other magnetic storage device, or other anyly may be used for carrying or store the medium that can be read the program code of form with instruction or data structure and other by general or special computer or general or special processor.In addition, any connection can be properly termed computer readable medium, such as, if software is by a concentric cable, fiber optic cables, twisted-pair feeder, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) or being also comprised in defined computer readable medium with wireless way for transmittings such as such as infrared, wireless and microwaves from a web-site, server or other remote resource.Described video disc (disk) and disk (disc) comprise Zip disk, radium-shine dish, CD, DVD, floppy disk and Blu-ray Disc, and disk is usually with magnetic duplication data, and video disc carries out optical reproduction data with laser usually.Above-mentioned combination also can be included in computer readable medium.

Above-described specific embodiment; object of the present invention, technical scheme and beneficial effect are further described; be understood that; the foregoing is only specific embodiments of the invention; the protection domain be not intended to limit the present invention; within the spirit and principles in the present invention all, any amendment made, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., all should be included within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. there is a Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

Build the evaluation points that impact has Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk;

The weight vectors of described evaluation points is obtained based on analytical hierarchy process;

The fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points is had described in structure;

According to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors are synthesized, described in acquisition, have the comprehensive evaluation result of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk.

2. according to claim 1 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, it is characterized in that, described impact has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk to include Gas Reservoirs gas well:

Structure and Sedimentary facies, it comprises structure and trap feature, fracture characteristic, fracture intensity and rock type and sedimentary facies;

Reservoir characteristic, it comprises every interlayer feature, Reservoir type, sand body connectedness and reservoir heterogeneity;

Drilling information, it comprises drilling quality, cementing quality and perforation apart from edge-bottom water distance;

Production development and Monitoring Data, it comprises gas-producing profile test result, saturation degree well logging result and transient testing evaluation result;

Dynamic evaluation and predicting the outcome, it comprises output and pressure variation characteristic, the unstable analysis result of output, single well controlled reserves, water cone production rate limit and water breakthrough breakthrough time predict the outcome.

3. according to claim 1 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, and it is characterized in that, the described weight vectors obtaining described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process, specifically comprises:

Each evaluation points under same level is compared between two to the judgment matrix M obtaining quantizing:

$M=\left(\begin{array}{cccc}{m}_{11}& m_{12}& \·\·\·& m_{1j}\\ m_{21}& m_{22}& \·\·\·& m_{2j}\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ m_{i1}& m_{i2}& \·\·\·& m_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right)$

Wherein, m _ijrepresent that evaluation points i is to the weight of evaluation points j;

Calculate the Maximum characteristic root λ of described judgment matrix M _maxand characteristic of correspondence vector, described proper vector is that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points under same level distributes;

Consistency desired result is carried out to described proper vector;

If described proper vector by described consistency desired result, then calculates the product Q of each row element of described judgment matrix M _i, wherein,

Calculate described Q _in th Root obtain vector this vector is normalized, obtains the weight vectors of described evaluation points.

4. according to claim 1 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, it is characterized in that, described in have the fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points to be:

$R=\left[\begin{array}{ccc}R|& & u_1\\ R|& & u_2\\ & \·\·\·& \\ R|& & u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_{11}& r_{12}& \·\·\·& r_{1m}\\ r_{21}& r_{22}& \·\·\·& r_{2m}\\ \·\·\·& \·\·\·& \·\·\·& \·\·\·\\ r_{p1}& r_{p2}& \·\·\·& r_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.m}$

Wherein, p capable m column element r in fuzzy relationship matrix r _pmgas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk is had from evaluation points u described in expression _pto the degree of membership of described proper vector.

5. according to claim 1 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk evaluating method, it is characterized in that, describedly described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors synthesized according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, specifically comprises:

According to formula j=1,2 ..., m, synthesizes described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors;

In formula, b _i, a _i, r _ijbe respectively the degree of membership that the degree of membership being under the jurisdiction of jth grade, the weight of i-th evaluation points and i-th evaluation points are under the jurisdiction of jth grade.

6. there is a Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, it is characterized in that, comprising:

Evaluation points builds module, has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk for building impact;

Weight vectors acquisition module, for obtaining the weight vectors of described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process;

Fuzzy matrix builds module, for there being the fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points described in building;

Matrix and vectorial synthesis module, for described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors being synthesized according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, have the comprehensive evaluation result of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk described in acquisition.

7. according to claim 6 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, it is characterized in that, described impact has the evaluation points of Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk to include Gas Reservoirs gas well:

Structure and Sedimentary facies, it comprises structure and trap feature, fracture characteristic, fracture intensity and rock type and sedimentary facies;

Reservoir characteristic, it comprises every interlayer feature, Reservoir type, sand body connectedness and reservoir heterogeneity;

Drilling information, it comprises drilling quality, cementing quality and perforation apart from edge-bottom water distance;

Production development and Monitoring Data, it comprises gas-producing profile test result, saturation degree well logging result and transient testing evaluation result;

Dynamic evaluation and predicting the outcome, it comprises output and pressure variation characteristic, the unstable analysis result of output, single well controlled reserves, water cone production rate limit and water breakthrough breakthrough time predict the outcome.

8. according to claim 6 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, and it is characterized in that, the described weight vectors obtaining described evaluation points based on analytical hierarchy process, specifically comprises:

Each evaluation points under same level is compared between two to the judgment matrix M obtaining quantizing:

$M=\left(\begin{array}{cccc}{m}_{11}& m_{12}& \·\·\·& m_{1j}\\ m_{21}& m_{22}& \·\·\·& m_{2j}\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ \·& \·& \·& \·\\ m_{i1}& m_{i2}& \·\·\·& m_{\mathrm{ij}}\end{array}\right)$

Wherein, m _ijrepresent that evaluation points i is to the weight of evaluation points j;

Calculate the Maximum characteristic root λ of described judgment matrix M _maxand characteristic of correspondence vector, described proper vector is that the weight coefficient of each evaluation points under same level distributes;

Consistency desired result is carried out to described proper vector;

If described proper vector by described consistency desired result, then calculates the product Q of each row element of described judgment matrix M _i, wherein,

Calculate described Q _in th Root obtain vector this vector is normalized, obtains the weight vectors of described evaluation points.

9. according to claim 6 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, it is characterized in that, described in have the fuzzy relation matrix between Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk and its evaluation points to be:

$R=\left[\begin{array}{ccc}R|& & u_1\\ R|& & u_2\\ & \·\·\·& \\ R|& & u_p\end{array}\right]={\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_{11}& r_{12}& \·\·\·& r_{1m}\\ r_{21}& r_{22}& \·\·\·& r_{2m}\\ \·\·\·& \·\·\·& \·\·\·& \·\·\·\\ r_{p1}& r_{p2}& \·\·\·& r_{\mathrm{pm}}\end{array}\right]}_{p.m}$

Wherein, p capable m column element r in fuzzy relationship matrix r _pmgas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk is had from evaluation points u described in expression _pto the degree of membership of described proper vector.

10. according to claim 6 have Gas Reservoirs gas well water breakthrough risk assessment device, it is characterized in that, describedly described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors synthesized according to weighted mean Fuzzy Arithmetic Operators, specifically comprises:

According to formula j=1,2 ..., m, synthesizes described fuzzy relation matrix and described weight vectors;

In formula, b _i, a _i, r _ijbe respectively the degree of membership that the degree of membership being under the jurisdiction of jth grade, the weight of i-th evaluation points and i-th evaluation points are under the jurisdiction of jth grade.