CN104281776B - A kind of mankind's activity is on the determination methods of river flow process appreciable impact phase - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides the determination methods of a kind of mankind's activity on the river flow process appreciable impact phase, long sequence hydrometeorological data month by month in collection research basin, the time that preliminary judgement mankind's activity changes annual runoff appreciable impact, screening is suitable for the hydrological model studying basin, simulation complete series runoff process, adds up the simulation error standard volume SRE of each time to annual runoff _i, draw simulation error standard volume process year by year, according to the situation that process departs from transverse axis judges that mankind's activity is on the river flow process appreciable impact phase.The present invention is based on mathematical statistics and hydrologic process physical simulating method, diagnosing human activity affects period to river flow, science has abandoned climatic elements may affect river flow, and diagnostic result is consistent with mankind's activity actual state in basin, classic method is effectively avoided affect on Hydrologic Series the erroneous judgement on the mankind's activity appreciable impact phase brought because of climatic elements variation, the diagnostic result therefore provided more science, reasonable.

Description

A kind of mankind's activity is on the determination methods of river flow process appreciable impact phase

Technical field

The present invention relates to hydrographic water resource application, be specifically related to the determination methods of a kind of mankind's activity on the river flow process appreciable impact phase.

Background technology

Along with socioeconomic fast development, a large amount of hydraulic engineerings, traffic engineering etc. have been built in many basins, the marked change that the simultaneously continuous lifting of urbanization rate, watershed system occur, the product that directly affects basin confluxes rule, and retaining, by water and water consumption condition.Under Background of Global Warming, each ground temperature also has rising in various degree, the tendency change that the precipitation of different regions also presents or increases or subtract.The impact of the many factors such as climate change and underlying surface environmental change, since the eighties in 20th century, Chinese most rivers measuring runoff presents minimizing trend, particularly northern river, reduces more remarkable.The Sustainable Development and Utilization of environmental change to water resources in china brings immense pressure, accurate assurance mankind's activity is on the initial time of rivers run-off appreciable impact, being the important foundation work that Scientific evaluation mankind's activity affects regional water resources, is also realize water resources management under changing environment, water resource optimal allocation and water resource research and development to utilize, ensure the important science of the aspects such as social economy's fast and stable development to support.

Also can there is the variation characteristic from a kind of status transition to another kind of state in Hydrological Time Series, namely show variability (also claiming to jump).Sudden change is a kind of special shape of jumping, and be moment behavior, after sudden change occurs, Hydrologic Series generally keeps again original characteristic.The variability research of Hydrologic Series is hydrology study hotspot always, in current hydrology analysis of variance, apply more method and comprise: Ordered Clustering Analysis method, runs test method, rank test method, Man-Kendall Mutation Assay method, R/S method and by period slip parted pattern etc.But, Hydrologic Series is by many-sided combined influence such as mankind's activity and climatic elements, the sudden change result of above-mentioned traditional hydrology analysis of variance method diagnosis also may not be that the single key element of mankind's activity causes, climatic elements variation also may cause the variation of Hydrologic Series, therefore, traditional Mathematical Statistics Analysis diagnostic method is just difficult to the needs of the hydrologic effect analysis and evaluation meeting mankind's activity.In addition, Hydrologic Series variation also by the mankind's activity situation in extensive investigation basin and then can judge, but needing a large amount of human and material resources and financial support with the approach of a large amount of field investigation, is a kind of approach comparatively wasted time and energy.

Summary of the invention

Goal of the invention: the object of the invention is to for the deficiencies in the prior art, the determination methods of a kind of mankind's activity on the river flow process appreciable impact phase is provided, can effectively avoid because climatic elements variation affects on Hydrologic Series the erroneous judgement brought, more convenient, quick, intuitively, scientifically provide the Hydrologic Series appreciable impact judged result in period caused by mankind's activity, and then better for the effect of human activity in Scientific evaluation basin provides support.

Technical scheme: the invention provides the determination methods of a kind of mankind's activity on the river flow process appreciable impact phase, comprise the following steps:

(1) in collection research basin long sequence quantity of precipitation, temperature, water surface evaporation and basin Outlet Section survey stream runoff month by month month by month;

(2) draw basin annual precipitation and annual runoff process, tentatively judge the time that mankind's activity changes annual runoff appreciable impact;

(3) screening is suitable for the hydrological model studying basin, hydrometeorological data before utilizing the effect of human activity, with NSC coefficient and relative error RE for rate target rational method, if NSC coefficient is greater than 70% and relative error RE is less than 5%, think that model is qualified;

(4) utilize the hydrological model simulation complete series runoff process built, add up the simulation error standard volume SRE of each time to annual runoff _i, calculate the accumulated value of simulation error standard volume year by year the wherein i expression of years, a total n, calculated from the 1st year;

(5) simulation error standard volume is drawn process year by year, according to the situation that process departs from transverse axis judges that mankind's activity is on the river flow process appreciable impact phase.

Further, each time is calculated in described step (4) to the simulation error standard volume SRE of annual runoff _i, namely reflect simulation error direction, effectively prevent the impact on diagnostic result bigger than normal of indivedual time simulation error simultaneously:

${\mathrm{SRE}}_i=\left\{\begin{array}{c}+1,......Q_{\mathrm{SIMi}}>Q_{\mathrm{REi}}\\ 0,.......Q_{\mathrm{SIMi}}=Q_{\mathrm{REi}}\\ -1,......Q_{\mathrm{SIMi}}<Q_{\mathrm{REi}}\end{array}\right.$

In formula, Q _sIMifor the annual runoff of simulation, Q _rEifor the annual runoff of actual measurement;

Calculate the accumulated value of simulation error standard volume year by year

${\mathrm{SumSRE}}_n=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{\mathrm{SRE}}_i,(i=1,......N)$

In formula, N be whole run-off series length and total year number.

Beneficial effect: 1, the present invention is based on mathematical statistics and hydrologic process physical simulating method, diagnosing human activity affects period to river flow, science has abandoned climatic elements may affect river flow, and diagnostic result is consistent with mankind's activity actual state in basin, classic method is effectively avoided affect on Hydrologic Series the erroneous judgement on the mankind's activity appreciable impact phase brought because of climatic elements variation, the diagnostic result therefore provided more science, reasonable; 2, the present invention is convenient compared with basin investigation method, quick, directly perceived, and meanwhile, cost is little, and efficiency is high

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the actual measurement annual runoff process schematic drawn in the present invention.

Fig. 2 is the water balance model structural drawing of the consideration merging into nature adopted in the present invention.

Fig. 3 adopts comparing of run-off process and measured runoff before the time of may suddenling change of the water balance model simulation considering merging into nature in the present invention.

Fig. 4 is the error criterion amount accumulation utilizing diagnostic method of the present invention to draw.

Embodiment

Below technical solution of the present invention is described in detail, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to described embodiment.

Embodiment: a kind of mankind's activity is on the determination methods of river flow process appreciable impact phase, its core is combined at statistical study and hydrological simulation, by the appreciable impact phase of simulation error analysis and then diagnosing human activity, its diagnostic procedure generally comprises visually just to be sentenced, hydrological simulation, standard error analysis, to pass judgment in detail, and then ensure that the science of evaluation result.For the wild river valley in Little Valleys In The Middle Reaches of The Yellow cave, concrete judge step is as follows:

1) collect the precipitation month by month of (1955 ~ 2010 years) since the wild river valley in cave is built a station, temperature, water surface evaporation and basin Outlet Section survey station Wen Jiachuan station and survey stream runoff month by month, calculate month by month face, basin average precipitation, face temperature on average and water surface evaporation.

2) the wild river valley in cave 1955 ~ 2010 year period Wen Jiachuan station annual runoff process is drawn, the time that preliminary judgement mankind's activity changes annual runoff appreciable impact is before and after 1975 or 1984, as shown in Figure 1, in figure, Q=-1.3008T+100.13 represents annual runoff linear change in time, about reduces 1.3008mm every year.

3) water balance model (as shown in Figure 2) choosing consideration snow melt carries out the hydrological simulation of the wild river valley in cave, consider that the water balance model of merging into nature requires to input month by month face average precipitation, temperature and evaporative power (generally being replaced by the evaporation from water surface of surveying) data, river flow is divided into surface runoff, run in depth and snowmelt runoff three kinds of runoff components.According to temperature Change, carried out rain, snow divides to precipitation, rainfall forms surface runoff, and first snowfall is accumulated, and then melts and forms snowmelt runoff.Part rainfall and snow melt supplement groundwater storage; Groundwater storage forms run in depth on the one hand and goes out stream, loses with the form of evapotranspiration simultaneously.Surface runoff calculates according to the linear function of soil moisture content and period quantity of precipitation, and run in depth goes out to flow theory calculate by groundwater storage linear resesvoir, and snowflow discharge is the exponential function of temperature, is proportional to the snowpack in basin simultaneously.

Before the possible mankind's activity appreciable impact time (1975), select hydrometeorology series (1955 ~ 1969 years) Offered model parameters more than 10 years, natural runoff sequence before simulation possibility catastrophe point, as shown in Figure 3:

$\mathrm{NSC}=(1-\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{(Q_{\mathrm{REi}}-Q_{\mathrm{SIMi}})}^2}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{(Q_{\mathrm{REi}}-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{Q_{\mathrm{REi}}})}^2})\&times;100\%$

$\mathrm{RE}=\frac{{\mathrm{MAR}}_{\mathrm{sim}}-{\mathrm{MAR}}_{\mathrm{obs}}}{{\mathrm{MAR}}_{\mathrm{obs}}}\&times;100$

In formula: MAR _simfor the average year run-off of simulation, MAR _obsfor the average year run-off of actual measurement, Q _sIMifor the flow of simulation, Q _rEifor measured discharge, i is the time, N be Fuzzy Period of Runoff Series total length and total year number.The NSC coefficient simulated is 82.3%, relative error RE is 0.7%, and model is good to natural runoff simulate effect, meets natural runoff reduction needs.

4) keep model parameter constant, utilize the average precipitation month by month in the face of 1955 ~ 2010 years, temperature, evaporative power to drive the runoff process of water balance model simulation complete series (1955 ~ 2010 years) of the consideration snow melt built; Add up the simulation error standard volume SRE of each time to annual runoff _i, calculate the accumulated value of simulation error standard volume year by year

${\mathrm{SRE}}_i=\left\{\begin{array}{c}+1,......Q_{\mathrm{SIMi}}>Q_{\mathrm{REi}}\\ 0,.......Q_{\mathrm{SIMi}}=Q_{\mathrm{REi}}\\ -1,......Q_{\mathrm{SIMi}}<Q_{\mathrm{REi}}\end{array}\right.$

${\mathrm{SumSRE}}_n=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{\mathrm{SRE}}_i,(i=1,......N)$

Wherein, the i expression of years, a total n, calculated from the 1st year.

5) 1955 ~ 2010 years simulation error standard volume accumulated values are drawn process year by year, as shown in Figure 4, according to the situation that process departs from transverse axis judges that mankind's activity is 1981 on the river flow process appreciable impact phase.

As seen from Figure 1, directly according to measured runoff process, be difficult to pass judgment on the definite sudden change time, as seen from Figure 4, after 1981, the standard error of simulation is just being continuously generally, not in the positive and negative staggered undulatory property change of appearance, apparently can be judged as that the initial time of suddenling change is 1981 thus.Show thus, the present invention can the appreciable impact time of diagnosing human activity more intuitively on Hydrologic Series.

As above, although represented with reference to specific preferred embodiment and described the present invention, it shall not be construed as the restriction to the present invention self.Under the spirit and scope of the present invention prerequisite not departing from claims definition, various change can be made in the form and details to it.

Claims (2)

1. mankind's activity is on the determination methods of river flow process appreciable impact phase, it is characterized in that: comprise the following steps:

(1) in collection research basin long sequence quantity of precipitation, temperature, water surface evaporation and basin Outlet Section survey stream runoff month by month month by month;

(2) draw basin annual precipitation and annual runoff process, tentatively judge the time that mankind's activity changes annual runoff appreciable impact;

(3) screening is suitable for the hydrological model studying basin, hydrometeorological data before utilizing the effect of human activity, with NSC coefficient and relative error RE for rate target rational method, if NSC coefficient is greater than 70% and relative error RE is less than 5%, think that model is qualified;

(4) utilize the hydrological model simulation complete series runoff process built, add up the simulation error standard volume SRE of each time to annual runoff _i, calculate the accumulated value of simulation error standard volume year by year the wherein i expression of years, a total n, calculated from the 1st year;

(5) simulation error standard volume is drawn process year by year, according to the situation that process departs from transverse axis judges that mankind's activity is on the river flow process appreciable impact phase.

2. mankind's activity according to claim 1 is on the determination methods of river flow process appreciable impact phase, it is characterized in that: calculate each time in described step (4) to the simulation error standard volume SRE of annual runoff _ithe accumulated value of simulation error standard volume year by year

${\mathrm{SRE}}_i=\left\{\begin{array}{c}+1,......Q_{SIMi}>Q_{REi}\\ 0,......Q_{SIMi}=Q_{REi}\\ -1,......Q_{SIMi}<Q_{REi}\end{array}\right.$

${\mathrm{SumSRE}}_n=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{SRE}}_i,(n=1,......N)$

In formula, Q _sIMifor the annual runoff of simulation, Q _rEifor the annual runoff of actual measurement, N be whole run-off series length and total year number.