CN104050609A - Low-carbon comprehensive benefit analyzing system of grid connection photovoltaic power generation - Google Patents
Low-carbon comprehensive benefit analyzing system of grid connection photovoltaic power generation Download PDFInfo
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- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Abstract
The invention discloses a low-carbon comprehensive benefit analyzing system of grid connection photovoltaic power generation. The low-carbon comprehensive benefit analyzing system comprises a basic data collecting module, a photovoltaic power generation benefit analyzing module, a photovoltaic power generation cost analyzing module, a power loss improvement benefit analyzing module, a reserve capacity cost analyzing module, a photovoltaic power generation low-carbon comprehensive benefit analyzing module and a carbon emission compensation time analyzing module. According to the low-carbon comprehensive benefit analyzing system, positive low-carbon factors and negative low-carbon factors of photovoltaic power generation, positive economic factors and negative economic factors are taken into consideration, carbon emission, emission reduction characteristics and economic benefits of a grid connection photovoltaic system are analyzed in the four aspects of the photovoltaic power generation benefits, the photovoltaic power generation cost, power loss improvement benefits and reserve capacity cost based on the life cycle concept, and as a result, guidance can be provided for low-carbon planning on a power distribution network comprising new energy power generation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of low-carbon (LC) analytic system of photovoltaic generation, specifically a kind of low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation.
Background technology
" reply haze, reduces discharge " become the action slogan that current China curbs environmental pollution.From China CO
2on discharge structure, see, power industry discharge capacity is large, speedup fast, proportion rises year by year.Related data shows, the CO of China's power industry
2the ratio that total emission volumn accounts for whole fossil energy carbon emission amounts by 1980 21.07% be progressively increased to 2005 38.73%.The CO of power industry in 2011
2the ratio that discharge capacity accounts for national total amount reaches 45.4%, the electric power CO of unit
2discharge intensity is especially up to 764kg/(MWh), Yuan Chao developed country and global average level.Therefore, the low carbonization of power industry develops becoming the main force of China's carbon emission reduction, in facing huge emission reduction tasks, possesses again significant reduction of discharging space.How under the prerequisite of guaranteeing sustainable and stable development, to realize CO
2effective reduction of discharging, the outstanding problem that beyond doubt power industry faces.
On the road reducing discharging in power industry, very important effect has been played in the development of new forms of energy.Wherein, photovoltaic generation has aboundresources, the feature such as clean and renewable, and low-carbon (LC) has a high potential.Meanwhile, Chinese theCourse of PV Industry is rapid, expects the installed capacity of the year two thousand twenty photovoltaic generation and will reach 20 GW.The localization of Chinese photovoltaic production capacity dissolve and a large amount of grid-connected overall background of photovoltaic generation under, carbon emission reduction benefit and the economic benefit of re-examine and research photovoltaic generation, i.e. low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit, has important practical significance and directive significance.
In fact, the low-carbon (LC) benefit of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation is an index that needs comprehensive consideration, the existing carbon emission reduction aspect of bringing because of effective receiving of photovoltaic generation, also there is the low-carbon (LC) aspect of bringing because of the energy-saving and cost-reducing benefit of its distribution system accessing, also there is grid side need to increase for stabilizing the unreliability of photovoltaic generation the non-low-carbon (LC) factor that investment brings, need to carry out comprehensive analysis and evaluation to it simultaneously.Existing research is mostly the research of carrying out from the macroscopic perspective of the large entire system carbon emission of electric power, for the access of clean energy resource, often only considered that thereby its alternative traditional energy generating reduces the positive impact of carbon emission, the microeconomic returns research that power distribution network silhouette is rung to the each side of low-carbon (LC) need deeply.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is exactly in order to solve the problems of the prior art, and provide a kind of from life cycle management angle the low-carbon emission reduction characteristic to grid-connected photovoltaic power generation engineering and economic performance carry out assessment and analysis, both considered the positive influence factor aspect of low-carbon (LC) effect and economic benefit, also consider its negative influence factor aspect, specify low-carbon (LC) benefit and the economic return of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation in certain hour section, and the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of the grid-connected photovoltaic power generation of carbon emission make-up time.
The present invention realizes according to following technical scheme:
The low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a kind of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation of the present invention, comprise: basic data acquisition module, photovoltaic generation income analysis module, photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, network loss is improved performance analysis module, margin capacity cost analysis module, photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis module, photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time analysis module; Wherein:
Described basic data acquisition module, obtains photovoltaic generation engineering basic parameter to be analyzed, comprises grid structure parameter, photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter;
Described photovoltaic generation income analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out the analysis of photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity, photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) income analysis and the analysis of photovoltaic generation economic return, calculate respectively photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income and photovoltaic generation year economic return;
Described photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out initial carbon investment Cost Analysis, the carbon cost analysis of operation maintenance stage, generating low-carbon (LC) cost analysis and generating economic cost analysis, calculate respectively photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost and photovoltaic generation year financial cost;
Described network loss is improved performance analysis module, utilize grid structure parameter, photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out that network loss is improved low-carbon (LC) effect analysis and network loss is improved Economic and Efficiency Analysis, calculate respectively that network loss is improved year low-carbon (LC) effect and network loss is improved a year economic benefit;
Described margin capacity analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out the economic cost of idleness analysis of the cost analysis of margin capacity low-carbon (LC) and margin capacity, calculate respectively margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost and margin capacity year economic cost of idleness;
Described photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost, network loss is improved a year low-carbon (LC) effect, margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, first carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) effect analysis, calculate the comprehensive low-carbon (LC) effect of photovoltaic generation year value, recycling photovoltaic generation year economic return, photovoltaic generation year financial cost, network loss is improved a year economic benefit, margin capacity year economic cost of idleness, carry out the analysis of photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency, calculate photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency year value, finally utilize the comprehensive low-carbon (LC) effect of photovoltaic generation year value, photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency year is worth and carbon transaction value, carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis, calculate photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit year value,
Described photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time analysis module, utilize initial carbon cost of investment, photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, photovoltaic generation year, low-carbon (LC) cost, network loss improved a year low-carbon (LC) effect, margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, carry out the analysis of carbon emission make-up time, calculate the photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time.
Advantage and good effect that the present invention has are:
The present invention considers low-carbon (LC) positive factor and the negative factor of photovoltaic generation, and economic positive factor and negative factor, from life cycle management angle, improve benefit and four aspects of margin capacity cost from photovoltaic generation income, photovoltaic generation cost, network loss, carbon emission, reduction of discharging characteristic and economic benefit to grid-connected photovoltaic system are analyzed, and result can be containing the low carbonization planning of power distribution network of generation of electricity by new energy guidance is provided.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is structured flowchart of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention will be described in detail.
As shown in Figure 1, the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a kind of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation of the present invention, comprise: basic data acquisition module, photovoltaic generation income analysis module, photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, network loss is improved performance analysis module, margin capacity cost analysis module, photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis module, photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time analysis module; Wherein:
Described basic data acquisition module, obtains photovoltaic generation engineering basic parameter to be analyzed, comprises grid structure parameter, photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter;
Described photovoltaic generation income analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out the analysis of photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity, photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) income analysis and the analysis of photovoltaic generation economic return, calculate respectively photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income and photovoltaic generation year economic return;
Described photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out initial carbon investment Cost Analysis, the carbon cost analysis of operation maintenance stage, generating low-carbon (LC) cost analysis and generating economic cost analysis, calculate respectively photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost and photovoltaic generation year financial cost;
Described network loss is improved performance analysis module, utilize grid structure parameter, photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out that network loss is improved low-carbon (LC) effect analysis and network loss is improved Economic and Efficiency Analysis, calculate respectively that network loss is improved year low-carbon (LC) effect and network loss is improved a year economic benefit;
Described margin capacity analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out the economic cost of idleness analysis of the cost analysis of margin capacity low-carbon (LC) and margin capacity, calculate respectively margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost and margin capacity year economic cost of idleness;
Described photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost, network loss is improved a year low-carbon (LC) effect, margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, first carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) effect analysis, calculate the comprehensive low-carbon (LC) effect of photovoltaic generation year value, recycling photovoltaic generation year economic return, photovoltaic generation year financial cost, network loss is improved a year economic benefit, margin capacity year economic cost of idleness, carry out the analysis of photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency, calculate photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency year value, finally utilize the comprehensive low-carbon (LC) effect of photovoltaic generation year value, photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency year is worth and carbon transaction value, carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis, calculate photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit year value,
Described photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time analysis module, utilize initial carbon cost of investment, photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, photovoltaic generation year, low-carbon (LC) cost, network loss improved a year low-carbon (LC) effect, margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, carry out the analysis of carbon emission make-up time, calculate the photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time.
Described grid structure parameter, comprises network topological diagram, network equipment parameter and typical daily load curve;
Described photovoltaic generation parameter, comprises that photovoltaic plant builds annual peak value sunshine-duration, the photovoltaic installed capacity on ground, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network, the power consumption of unit capacity photovoltaic system fabrication phase, photovoltaic manufactured place and the each assembly general assembly (TW) of distance, photovoltaic, the photovoltaic system maintenance phase carbon emission amount of photovoltaic plant and share coefficient, photovoltaic system operation and maintenance cost ratio, electrical network and provide margin capacity coefficient and the typical daily output curve of photovoltaic for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation;
Described carbon emission basic parameter, comprises centralized power generation side carbon intensity and communications and transportation carbon intensity.
Described photovoltaic generation income analysis module, utilize photovoltaic plant to build annual peak value sunshine-duration, photovoltaic installed capacity, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, the photovoltaic cell attenuation rate on ground, first carry out the analysis of photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity, calculate photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity, recycling photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity and centralized power generation side carbon intensity carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) income analysis, calculate photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, also utilize photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity and photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network to carry out the analysis of photovoltaic generation economic return, calculate photovoltaic generation year economic return simultaneously.
Described photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, utilize the power consumption of unit capacity photovoltaic system fabrication phase, photovoltaic installed capacity, the each assembly general assembly (TW) of photovoltaic, the distance of photovoltaic manufactured place and photovoltaic plant, centralized power generation side carbon intensity and communications and transportation carbon intensity, first carry out initial carbon investment Cost Analysis, calculate initial carbon cost of investment, recycling initial carbon cost of investment and photovoltaic system maintenance phase carbon emission amount are shared coefficient and are carried out the cost analysis of photovoltaic generation operation maintenance stage carbon, draw operation maintenance stage carbon cost, then utilize initial carbon cost of investment and operation maintenance stage carbon cost to carry out the cost analysis of photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC), calculate photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost, also utilize the investment cost of photovoltaic generating system and photovoltaic system operation and maintenance cost ratio to carry out photovoltaic generation economic cost analysis simultaneously, calculate photovoltaic generation year financial cost.
Described network loss is improved performance analysis module, utilize centralized power generation side carbon intensity, network topological diagram, network equipment parameter, typical case day by period load curve and typical case day by period photovoltaic power curve, first carry out network loss and improve low-carbon (LC) effect analysis, calculate network loss and improve a year low-carbon (LC) effect, recycling photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network, network topological diagram, network equipment parameter, typical case day by period load curve and typical case day by period photovoltaic power curve, carry out network loss and improve Economic and Efficiency Analysis, calculate network loss and improve a year economic benefit.
Described margin capacity cost analysis module, utilize photovoltaic plant to build the annual peak value sunshine-duration on ground, photovoltaic installed capacity, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, electrical network provides margin capacity coefficient and centralized power generation side carbon intensity for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation, first carry out the cost analysis of margin capacity low-carbon (LC), calculate margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, the annual peak value sunshine-duration that recycling photovoltaic plant is built ground, photovoltaic installed capacity, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, electrical network provides margin capacity coefficient and photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation, carry out the economic cost of idleness analysis of margin capacity, calculate economic cost of idleness of margin capacity year.
The present embodiment is intended taking IEEE14 node as example, and Mou district builds 10MW photovoltaic plant, and local load is 260MW, investment is 100,000,000 yuan, divide and invested for 5 years, operation and maintenance cost ratio (operation and maintenance cost accounts for the ratio of initial gross investment) is 2%, and be 20 years payback period.Adopt grid-connected polysilicon photovoltaic system, install according to optimum incline angle, the average peak sunshine-duration of every day is 4.074h, and photovoltaic system Performance Ratio is 0.8.Electrical network is that 0.25. hypothesis photovoltaic apparatus general assembly (TW) is 865.76t for photovoltaic generation provides margin capacity coefficient for subsequent use, and from photovoltaic system grown place to photovoltaic plant, distance is 400km, and communications and transportation carbon intensity is 0.1553 kg/tkm.It is 5% that photovoltaic system maintenance phase carbon emission amount is shared coefficient (photovoltaic system maintenance phase carbon emission amount accounts for the ratio of initial carbon investment).Photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network is taken as 1 yuan/kWh.Centralized power generation side carbon intensity is got national Generation Side CO in 2007
2emission factor is 0.76kg/kWh.
Table 1 is produced the electric energy (kWh/kW) that grid-connected polysilicon photovoltaic system consumes
1 basic data acquisition
Obtain the basic parameter of object to be assessed, comprise grid structure parameter, photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter, detailed data is as shown in table 2 below.
The table 2 embodiment engineering detail parameters data of generating electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems
2 photovoltaic generation income analysis
2.1 photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacities are analyzed
The photovoltaic power generation quantity of t is G
t, G
tcan be expressed as:
In formula,
h t for the annual peak value sunshine-duration, refer to the surface solar radiation intensity under the annual total irradiation of the sun and the standard test condition receiving on photovoltaic arrays face
g=1000W/m
2the value obtaining after being divided by;
p 0 for photovoltaic installed capacity;
rfor photovoltaic system Performance Ratio;
dfor photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, do not consider decay here, get
d=0.
Obtain photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity by above-mentioned data and formula, be calculated as follows:
2.2 photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) income analysis
The low-carbon (LC) income of photovoltaic generation
c 1 can be expressed as:
In formula,
m c for centralized power generation side carbon intensity, represent local every 1kWh electric energy of power plant's (use pluralities of fuel), the average emission CO of mixing
2quantity, the g/kWh of unit.This formula represents
tcO corresponding to year photovoltaic institute generated energy
2cER, i.e. the low-carbon (LC) benefit of institute's generated energy.
Can obtain photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income by above-mentioned data and formula:
2.3 photovoltaic generation economic return are analyzed
Photovoltaic power generation quantity economic benefit
e 1 can be expressed as:
In formula,
p r for photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network.
Can obtain by above-mentioned data and formula
tyear photovoltaic generation year economic return:
3 photovoltaic generation cost analyses
3.1 initial carbon investment Cost Analysis
The initial carbon cost of investment of photovoltaic generation
c 0 can be expressed as:
In formula,
kthe electric energy consuming for production unit capacity photovoltaic system,
p 0 for photovoltaic installed capacity,
m c for centralized power generation side EIC Carbon Emission Index,
wfor the each assembly general assembly (TW) of photovoltaic, unit
t,
sfor the distance of photovoltaic manufactured place and photovoltaic plant, unit
km,
gfor communications and transportation carbon intensity, units/kg/tkm.
Can obtain initial carbon cost of investment by above-mentioned data and formula:
The carbon cost analysis of 3.2 operation maintenance stages
Operation maintenance stage carbon cost
c m can be expressed as:
In formula,
for photovoltaic system maintenance phase carbon emission amount is shared coefficient, i.e. the ratio of photovoltaic system operation maintenance stage carbon emission amount and initial carbon investment.
Can obtain operation maintenance stage carbon cost by above-mentioned data and formula:
3.3 generating low-carbon (LC) cost analyses
Photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) cost
c 2 can be expressed as:
Can obtain photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) cost by above-mentioned data and formula:
By carbon mechanism of exchange, photovoltaic generation carbon cost mean allocation is arrived in photovoltaic system life cycle, be equivalent to photovoltaic generation and produce every year CO
2discharge
.
3.4 generating economic cost analysis
Photovoltaic generation is at the generating financial cost E of whole lifetime
2can be expressed as:
In formula,
e 2 for the total life cycle cost of electricity-generating of photovoltaic generation engineering;
i t be
tthe capital input expense in year;
eop t be
tthe operation and maintenance cost in year, comprises failure cost and replacement expense;
ifor discount rate.
Divide and within 5 years, invest annual investment 2,000 ten thousand, can obtain according to above-mentioned model and data:
By
can obtain, annual photovoltaic generation financial cost is 1033.715 ten thousand yuan.
4 network loss are improved performance analysis
From four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively choose several typical cases day, and each typical case 6:00 day from morning is divided into 12 periods to late 18:00.Network loss by the each typical case of trend calculative determination day is improved situation, and then determines the network loss improvement amount in each season and a year.What table 3 had provided typical case day in summer improves situation by period network loss, and table 4 has provided the result of being improved situation by the annual network loss of typical case's day data estimation.
Table 3 typical case in a summer day intraday network loss is improved situation (unit: MW)
The network loss in four seasons of table 4 is improved situation (MWh)
4.1 network loss are improved low-carbon (LC) effect analysis
Network loss is improved low-carbon (LC) effect
c 3 can be expressed as:
In formula,
m c for centralized power generation side EIC Carbon Emission Index,
△ Wfor network loss change amount, topological diagram Network Based, network equipment parameter, typical case day day by period photovoltaic power curve, utilize trend to calculate by period load curve and typical case.
Above formula represents because photovoltaic accesses the corresponding CO of system losses improvement level that can bring
2equivalence CER.When
△ Wwhen >0, show as low-carbon (LC) positive-effect; When
△ Wwhen <0, show as low-carbon (LC) negative effect.
Can obtain network loss by above-mentioned data and formula and improve low-carbon (LC) effect:
4.2 network loss are improved Economic and Efficiency Analysis
Network loss is improved economic benefit E
3can be expressed as:
In formula,
p r for photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network,
△ Wfor network loss change amount, topological diagram Network Based, network equipment parameter, typical case day day by period photovoltaic power curve, utilize trend to calculate by period load curve and typical case.
Above formula represents because photovoltaic accesses economic benefit corresponding to system losses improvement level that can bring.When
△ Wwhen >0, show as economic positive benefit; When
△ Wwhen <0, show as economic negative benefit.
Can obtain network loss by above-mentioned data and formula and improve economic benefit:
5 margin capacity cost analyses
5.1 margin capacity low-carbon (LC) cost analyses
At the margin capacity low-carbon (LC) cost of t
c 4 can be expressed as:
In formula,
h t for the annual peak value sunshine-duration, refer to the surface solar radiation intensity under the annual total irradiation of the sun and the standard test condition receiving on photovoltaic arrays face
g=1000W/m
2the value obtaining after being divided by;
p 0 for photovoltaic installed capacity;
rfor photovoltaic system Performance Ratio;
dfor photovoltaic cell attenuation rate,
m c for centralized power generation side EIC Carbon Emission Index,
θfor electrical network provides margin capacity coefficient for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation, above formula represents that system provides capacity for subsequent use born equivalent CO for photovoltaic generation
2discharge.
Can obtain margin capacity low-carbon (LC) cost by above-mentioned data and formula:
The economic cost of idleness analysis of 5.2 margin capacity
?
tthe economic cost of idleness of margin capacity in year
e 4 can be expressed as:
In formula,
h t for the annual peak value sunshine-duration, refer to the surface solar radiation intensity under the annual total irradiation of the sun and the standard test condition receiving on photovoltaic arrays face
g=1000W/m
2the value obtaining after being divided by;
p 0 for photovoltaic installed capacity;
rfor photovoltaic system Performance Ratio;
dfor photovoltaic cell attenuation rate,
p r for photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network,
θfor electrical network provides margin capacity coefficient for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation, above formula represents that system provides for subsequent use the born equivalence of capacity economic cost of idleness for photovoltaic generation.
Can obtain the economic cost of idleness of margin capacity by above-mentioned data and formula:
6 photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis
6.1 photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) effect analysis
The comprehensive low-carbon (LC) effect of photovoltaic generation
c y can be expressed as:
In formula,
c 1 for the year low-carbon (LC) income of photovoltaic generation,
, be the year value of photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) cost,
c 2 for the low-carbon (LC) cost of photovoltaic generation,
nfor the lifetime of photovoltaic system,
c 3 for network loss is improved a year low-carbon (LC) effect,
c 4 for margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost.
Can obtain photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) effect by above-mentioned data and formula:
6.2 photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiencies are analyzed
Photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency
e y can be expressed as:
In formula,
e 1 for photovoltaic generation year economic return,
e 2 'for the year value of photovoltaic generation financial cost,
e 3 for network loss is improved a year economic benefit,
e 4 for economic cost of idleness of margin capacity year.Above formula represents the year economic return of photovoltaic generating system.
Can obtain photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency by above-mentioned data and formula:
6.3 photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis
Photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit C
scan be expressed as:
In formula,
p t for carbon transaction value,
c y for photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) effect,
e y for photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency.This formula represents the year low-carbon economy comprehensive benefit of photovoltaic generating system, the i.e. summation of year low-carbon (LC) benefit and year economic benefit.
Can obtain photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit by above-mentioned data and formula:
7 photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up times were analyzed
The carbon emission make-up time
cPPcan be expressed as:
In formula,
c 0 for initial carbon cost of investment,
c 1 for photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) income,
c m / nfor photovoltaic generation year is safeguarded carbon cost,
c m for photovoltaic generation total safeguard carbon cost,
nfor the lifetime of photovoltaic system,
c 3 for network loss improve low-carbon (LC) effect,
c 4 for margin capacity low-carbon (LC) cost.
Can obtain the carbon emission make-up time by above-mentioned data and formula:
From CO
2reduce discharging benefit, photovoltaic generation substitutes traditional thermal power generation can obtain good environmental benefit, and in the present embodiment, the every generating a kilowatt of photovoltaic system is equivalent to directly reduce CO
2discharge 6590.789 × 10
6/ 11896.08 × 10
3=554g, considers the factors such as smelting polycrystalline silicon with European photovoltaic production capacity association (European Photovoltaic Industry Association, EPIA) proposes, and 1kWh photovoltaic generation can reduce discharging CO
2the result of 0.6kg is close.Following by the application of new technology, and the raising gradually of photovoltaic generation permeability, the initial carbon investment of photovoltaic generation also will greatly reduce, and photovoltaic generation benefit will obviously strengthen, thereby can further increase the low-carbon (LC) benefit of photovoltaic generation.
From low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit angle, because current photovoltaic generation cost is high, investment large, annual economic return and cost nearly maintain an equal level, and consider the considerable low-carbon (LC) income amount of photovoltaic generation, and the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive income of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation system is still more considerable.Along with scientific and technological progress, photovoltaic generation cost will decline to a great extent, and its economic benefit and low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit also will be more outstanding.
Claims (6)
1. the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a grid-connected photovoltaic power generation, it is characterized in that: comprising: basic data acquisition module, photovoltaic generation income analysis module, photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, network loss is improved performance analysis module, margin capacity cost analysis module, photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis module, photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time analysis module; Wherein:
Described basic data acquisition module, obtains photovoltaic generation engineering basic parameter to be analyzed, comprises grid structure parameter, photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter;
Described photovoltaic generation income analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out the analysis of photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity, photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) income analysis and the analysis of photovoltaic generation economic return, calculate respectively photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income and photovoltaic generation year economic return;
Described photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out initial carbon investment Cost Analysis, the carbon cost analysis of operation maintenance stage, generating low-carbon (LC) cost analysis and generating economic cost analysis, calculate respectively photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost and photovoltaic generation year financial cost;
Described network loss is improved performance analysis module, utilize grid structure parameter, photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out that network loss is improved low-carbon (LC) effect analysis and network loss is improved Economic and Efficiency Analysis, calculate respectively that network loss is improved year low-carbon (LC) effect and network loss is improved a year economic benefit;
Described margin capacity analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation parameter and carbon emission basic parameter in basic data acquisition module, carry out the economic cost of idleness analysis of the cost analysis of margin capacity low-carbon (LC) and margin capacity, calculate respectively margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost and margin capacity year economic cost of idleness;
Described photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis module, utilize photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost, network loss is improved a year low-carbon (LC) effect, margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, first carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) effect analysis, calculate the comprehensive low-carbon (LC) effect of photovoltaic generation year value, recycling photovoltaic generation year economic return, photovoltaic generation year financial cost, network loss is improved a year economic benefit, margin capacity year economic cost of idleness, carry out the analysis of photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency, calculate photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency year value, finally utilize the comprehensive low-carbon (LC) effect of photovoltaic generation year value, photovoltaic generation overall economic efficiency year is worth and carbon transaction value, carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis, calculate photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit year value,
Described photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time analysis module, utilize initial carbon cost of investment, photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, photovoltaic generation year, low-carbon (LC) cost, network loss improved a year low-carbon (LC) effect, margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, carry out the analysis of carbon emission make-up time, calculate the photovoltaic generation carbon emission make-up time.
2. the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a kind of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, is characterized in that: described grid structure parameter, comprises network topological diagram, network equipment parameter and typical daily load curve;
Described photovoltaic generation parameter, comprises that photovoltaic plant builds annual peak value sunshine-duration, the photovoltaic installed capacity on ground, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network, the power consumption of unit capacity photovoltaic system fabrication phase, photovoltaic manufactured place and the each assembly general assembly (TW) of distance, photovoltaic, the photovoltaic system maintenance phase carbon emission amount of photovoltaic plant and share coefficient, photovoltaic system operation and maintenance cost ratio, electrical network and provide margin capacity coefficient and the typical daily output curve of photovoltaic for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation;
Described carbon emission basic parameter, comprises centralized power generation side carbon intensity and communications and transportation carbon intensity.
3. the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a kind of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation according to claim 2, it is characterized in that: described photovoltaic generation income analysis module, utilize photovoltaic plant to build the annual peak value sunshine-duration on ground, photovoltaic installed capacity, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, first carry out the analysis of photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity, calculate photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity, recycling photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity and centralized power generation side carbon intensity carry out photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC) income analysis, calculate photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) income, also utilize photovoltaic annual electricity generating capacity and photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network to carry out the analysis of photovoltaic generation economic return simultaneously, calculate photovoltaic generation year economic return.
4. the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a kind of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation according to claim 2, it is characterized in that: described photovoltaic generation cost analysis module, utilize the power consumption of unit capacity photovoltaic system fabrication phase, photovoltaic installed capacity, the each assembly general assembly (TW) of photovoltaic, the distance of photovoltaic manufactured place and photovoltaic plant, centralized power generation side carbon intensity and communications and transportation carbon intensity, first carry out initial carbon investment Cost Analysis, calculate initial carbon cost of investment, recycling initial carbon cost of investment and photovoltaic system maintenance phase carbon emission amount are shared coefficient and are carried out the cost analysis of photovoltaic generation operation maintenance stage carbon, draw operation maintenance stage carbon cost, then utilize initial carbon cost of investment and operation maintenance stage carbon cost to carry out the cost analysis of photovoltaic generation low-carbon (LC), calculate photovoltaic generation year low-carbon (LC) cost, also utilize the investment cost of photovoltaic generating system and photovoltaic system operation and maintenance cost ratio to carry out photovoltaic generation economic cost analysis simultaneously, calculate photovoltaic generation year financial cost.
5. the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a kind of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation according to claim 2, it is characterized in that: described network loss is improved performance analysis module, utilize centralized power generation side carbon intensity, network topological diagram, network equipment parameter, typical case day by period load curve and typical case day by period photovoltaic power curve, first carry out network loss and improve low-carbon (LC) effect analysis, calculate network loss and improve a year low-carbon (LC) effect, recycling photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network, network topological diagram, network equipment parameter, typical case day by period load curve and typical case day by period photovoltaic power curve, carry out network loss and improve Economic and Efficiency Analysis, calculate network loss and improve a year economic benefit.
6. the low-carbon (LC) comprehensive benefit analysis system of a kind of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation according to claim 2, it is characterized in that: described margin capacity cost analysis module, utilize photovoltaic plant to build the annual peak value sunshine-duration on ground, photovoltaic installed capacity, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, electrical network provides margin capacity coefficient and centralized power generation side carbon intensity for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation, first carry out the cost analysis of margin capacity low-carbon (LC), calculate margin capacity year low-carbon (LC) cost, the annual peak value sunshine-duration that recycling photovoltaic plant is built ground, photovoltaic installed capacity, photovoltaic system Performance Ratio, photovoltaic cell attenuation rate, electrical network provides margin capacity coefficient and photovoltaic rate for incorporation into the power network for subsequent use for photovoltaic generation, carry out the economic cost of idleness analysis of margin capacity, calculate economic cost of idleness of margin capacity year.
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