CN104021668B - A kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection and prognoses system and method - Google Patents
A kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection and prognoses system and method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection and prognoses system and method.Described system comprises treating apparatus, pick-up unit, roadside communicator, bus car-mounted device, taxi car-mounted device, and all devices form wireless sensor network together.Can connect to wirelessly between pick-up unit or roadside communicator, and can and treating apparatus between wirelessly connect, the information of pick-up unit or roadside communicator can send to treating apparatus by multi-hop mode, bus car-mounted device and taxi car-mounted device can only and roadside communicator between communicate, they add network by dynamical fashion.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to urban traffic control technical field, particularly a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection and prognoses system and method.
Background technology
Along with city size constantly expands, all kinds ofly the large-scale activity of crowd massing may be caused to be on the increase, the demand of the place peripheries such as commercial center, transport hub, stadiums to traffic transport power such as bus, subway, taxis is very large, if can detect in time the public transport supply and demand state of these place peripheries and predict, to adopt an effective measure maneuver traffic transport power in time, to alleviation urban traffic blocking, improve urban environment, will play a significant role.
Application for a patent for invention " method and apparatus that crowd massing detects " (application number: 201210071625.8), " a kind of crowd density detection method and device " (application number: 200910237655.X), be proposed the method and apparatus whether assembled based on video image analysis detection crowd, similar related ends also has a lot.But existing method only considered image itself, there is no the transportation supplies situation of periphery, the traffic of neighboring area cannot be reflected comprehensively, cannot provide Optimizing Suggestions to public transport scheduling scheme yet.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the present invention proposes a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection and prognoses system and method.
According to an aspect of the present invention, which provide a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection and prognoses system, it comprises:
At least one pick-up unit, it is arranged on playground periphery, obtains detecting the current persons count in coverage by the graphical analysis obtaining current active place periphery;
At least one roadside communicator, it communicates with taxi car-mounted device with the bus car-mounted device of process, for the light condition of idle capacity and taxi in the bus car of acquisition is sent to treating apparatus;
Bus car-mounted device, it communicates with roadside communicator, for obtaining the idle capacity in bus car; And idle capacity in described car is issued roadside communicator;
Taxi car-mounted device, it communicates with roadside communicator, for obtaining taxi light condition, and sends to roadside communicator;
Treating apparatus, idle capacity, taxi light condition and subway transport ability in its current persons count according to the described playground periphery obtained from least one pick-up unit described, bus car, detect current public transport supply and demand state, and predict the public transport supply and demand state in next cycle;
Wherein, at least one pick-up unit described, at least one roadside communicator, taxi car-mounted device and treating apparatus form a wireless sensor network jointly, the information of pick-up unit or roadside communicator can send to treating apparatus by multi-hop mode, bus car-mounted device can only communicate with roadside communicator with taxi car-mounted device, and they add described wireless sensor network by dynamical fashion.
According to a second aspect of the present invention, which provide a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection and Forecasting Methodology, it comprises:
Based on the video image collected, detect the current persons count in coverage;
Using current persons count's sum of each check point as current period public transport demand;
According to the idle capacity of bus entering and leave neighboring area, calculate the bus movement capacity of current period;
According to the idle capacity of taxi entering and leave neighboring area, calculate the taxi movement capacity of current period;
The base area iron Operational Timelines, calculate the subway transport ability of current period;
According to bus, taxi and subway transport ability, calculate the public transport supply of current period;
By calculating the difference between the public transport demand of current period and public transport supply, calculate current period public transport supply and demand state;
According to the public transport demand of current period, predict the public transport demand in next cycle;
Public transport according to current period supplies, and predicts the public transport supply in next cycle;
By calculating the difference between the public transport demand in next cycle and public transport supply, predict the public transport supply and demand state in next cycle.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows, in conjunction with current crowd's situation and periphery public transport transport power situation detection and prediction public transport supply and demand state, take into full account the dynamic change situation of crowd evacuation supply and demand two aspect, can more adequately estimate evacuating conditions of demand future, the movement capacity of public transport is gathered based on wireless sensor network, system is easy to implement, and cost price is little.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection of proposing of the present invention and prognoses system structural drawing.
Fig. 2 is the deployment diagram of the detection that proposes of the present invention and prognoses system.
Embodiment
For making the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearly understand, below in conjunction with specific embodiment, and with reference to accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail.
Fig. 1 is the block diagram example of a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection of proposing of the present invention and prognoses system, it comprises treating apparatus 1, pick-up unit 2, roadside communicator 3, bus car-mounted device 4, taxi car-mounted device 5, all devices form wireless sensor network together, can connect to wirelessly between pick-up unit 2 or roadside communicator 3, and can and treating apparatus 1 between wirelessly connect, the information of pick-up unit 2 or roadside communicator 3 can send to treating apparatus 1 by multi-hop mode, bus car-mounted device 4 and taxi car-mounted device 5 can only and roadside communicator 3 between communicate, they add network by dynamical fashion.
The Account Dept that the present invention proposes is deployed in the larger playground periphery of public transport demand, as railway station, terminal, gymnasium, commercial center, hospital etc., wherein pick-up unit is arranged on the place that crowd may occur to assemble, if the position such as point of waiting, subway gateway, subway platform, gateway, market, gateway, stadium of bus-stop, taxi, the installation site for the treatment of apparatus does not have particular/special requirement, as long as each pick-up unit, roadside communicator can form with treating apparatus the wireless sensor network be communicated with together.
Fig. 2 is the deployment diagram example of a kind of public transport supply and demand state-detection of proposing of the present invention and prognoses system, pick-up unit in system is deployed in playground periphery, single pick-up unit can detect the current persons count in overlay area, the testing result of all pick-up units converges to treating apparatus by wireless sensor network and carries out unifying process, and treating apparatus detects and the public transport supply and demand state in estimation range; All buses are installed bus vehicle module, all taxis are installed taxi vehicle module.
Roadside communicator in system is arranged on the side of system ovelay range peripheral path, and the deployment of roadside communicator ensures when bus and taxi enter or leave coverage, can communicate with roadside communicator;
When bus enters coverage, and set up network connection between the communicator of roadside, bus current spare capacity is sent to roadside communicator by public transport vehicle-mounted module, and these information are sent to treating apparatus by roadside communicator again;
When bus leaves coverage, and set up network connection between the communicator of roadside, information of vehicles is sent to treating apparatus by roadside communicator;
When taxi enters coverage, and set up network between the communicator of roadside and connect, taxi vehicle module by current be whether that unloaded status information sends to roadside communicator, these information are sent to treating apparatus by roadside communicator again;
When taxi leaves coverage, and set up network connection between the communicator of roadside, information of vehicles is sent to treating apparatus by roadside communicator.
Pick-up unit adopts the detection method based on graphical analysis, and the camera pedestal of pick-up unit is located in the high vertical rod of 3-4 rice.After video camera installation, adjustment focal length of camera makes the size of a people in video capture image at least comprise 10 pixels, within the scope of video camera, then calibrate the sensing range of crowd massing manually.
About the concrete grammar of testing fixture based on analyzing and detecting current persons count, do not belong to limited range of the present invention, there is multiple disclosed method at present, large-scale crowd density analysis and prediction method (application number 200810238875.X) as a kind of in patent of invention, a kind of crowd density detection method and device (application number: 200910237655.X) etc.
The invention allows for a kind of method with prediction public transport supply and demand state that detects, it comprises the following steps:
Step S1: pick-up unit analysis 10 per second frame video image, the crowd's quantity in present frame setting range is detected based on Video Detection Algorithm, after arriving the cycle (defaulting to 5 minutes) of setting, the current persons count of each frame is averaged, as the current crowd's quantity in current period coverage, then capture a photo current, crowd's quantity of current period is sent to treating apparatus together with candid photograph picture.
Step S2: treating apparatus is collected the testing result of all pick-up units in native system and captured picture, according to the cycle (identical with the sense cycle of detection node) of setting, the testing result of all pick-up units is added, transport need CTDC total under obtaining current period;
Step S3: treating apparatus calculates current transportation supplies CTSC;
Step S4: treating apparatus judges, if the difference of transport need CTDC and transportation supplies CTSC is greater than default first threshold (default value is 50% of transportation supplies CTSC), then judge that transportation supplies can not meet transport need, then distally administrative center sends the first warning message, and the first warning message comprises the quantity of Current traffic demand and the candid photograph picture of pick-up unit.
Step S5: the transport need NTDN in next cycle predicted by treating apparatus;
Step S6: the transportation supplies NTSN in next cycle predicted by treating apparatus;
Step S7: if treating apparatus judges that the difference of transport need NTDN and transportation supplies NTSN is greater than default Second Threshold (default value is 80% of NTSN), then judge that transportation supplies can not meet transport need, distally administrative center sends Secondary Report alarming information, and Secondary Report alarming information comprises the transport need quantity in next cycle.
In step s3, treating apparatus calculates the method for Current traffic supply CTSC is that calculate current bus movement capacity, subway transport ability, taxi movement capacity respectively, three's sum is current transportation supplies.
The method calculating bus movement capacity comprises two aspects:
On the one hand, when bus enters system coverage area, bus car-mounted device is set up network with roadside communicator and is connected, idle capacity EC1 current in bus is sent to roadside communicator, after roadside communicator receives by data retransmission to treating apparatus, treating apparatus by current bus movement capacity increase EC1, obtain upgrade after current bus movement capacity, and increase a record in a database, the corresponding relation of record No. ID, bus and EC1;
On the other hand, when bus leaves system coverage area, bus car-mounted device is set up network with roadside communicator and is connected, roadside communicator sends to treating apparatus by bus No. ID, treating apparatus, according to No. ID, bus, finds corresponding bus idle capacity EC2, and current bus movement capacity is reduced EC2, obtain the current bus movement capacity after upgrading, and delete the record of No. ID, bus and EC2 corresponding relation in a database.
The limited range of this patent is not belonged to about the method calculating bus idle capacity, there is the number in the method detection bus of multiple maturation at present, as pressure pedalling (patent of invention: passenger traffic collection apparatus for public traffic vehicle and method, application number: 200810052524.X), video analysis method (patent of invention: public traffice passenger flow statistical method, application number: 201010195212.1) etc., based on the number in bus, be easy to the idle capacity drawing bus.
The method calculating movement capacity of hiring a car is similar with the method calculating bus movement capacity, and its difference is that the computing method of taxi idle capacity are, if taxi is sky sail state, its idle capacity is 1, otherwise its idle capacity is 0.
The method calculating subway transportation supply comprises four steps below,
Step S21: the time in one day is divided into discrete time point t by the cycle (default value is 5 minutes) of presetting
0, t
1..., t
i..., current time is designated as t, supposes t
i< t≤t
i+1;
Step S22: according to periphery bus scheduling timetable, computing time section [t
i, t
i+1] the interior subway set RS through neighboring area;
The idle coefficient of step S23: iron is plowed for each in RS, its movement capacity=subway capacity *.Idle coefficient can according to factual survey data scaling, and its default value is: peak period on and off duty is 0.2, and non-peak period is 0.6; The peak period on and off duty time is determined according to place city scenarios, and default value is: working peak period is 7:00-8:30, and next peak period is 17:00 mono-19:00;
Step S24: the idle capacity of subways all in RS is sued for peace, obtains the subway transport ability of current time t.
In step s 5, treating apparatus adopts time series predicting model to predict next cycle traffic demand, and concrete grammar is, the public transport demand of current period is designated as y
t, subscript t is current time, t=1,2,3 ..., the public transport demand in next cycle of prediction is:
Wherein
represent t and the predicted value in t+1 moment respectively, and set
α is coefficent of exponential smoothing, and default value is 0.8.
In step s 6, treating apparatus adopts time series predicting model to predict that next cycle traffic supplies, and concrete grammar is, the transportation supplies of current period is designated as z
t, subscript t is current time, t=1,2,3 ..., the public transport supply in next cycle of prediction is:
Wherein
represent t and the predicted value in t+1 moment respectively, and set
β is coefficent of exponential smoothing, and default value is 0.8.
Above-described specific embodiment; object of the present invention, technical scheme and beneficial effect are further described; be understood that; the foregoing is only specific embodiments of the invention; be not limited to the present invention; within the spirit and principles in the present invention all, any amendment made, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., all should be included within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. public transport supply and demand state-detection and a prognoses system, it comprises:
At least one pick-up unit, it is arranged on playground periphery, obtains detecting the current persons count in coverage by the graphical analysis obtaining current active place periphery;
At least one roadside communicator, it communicates with taxi car-mounted device with the bus car-mounted device of process, for the light condition of idle capacity and taxi in the bus car of acquisition is sent to treating apparatus;
Bus car-mounted device, it communicates with roadside communicator, for obtaining the idle capacity in bus car; And idle capacity in described car is issued roadside communicator;
Taxi car-mounted device, it communicates with roadside communicator, for obtaining taxi light condition, and sends to roadside communicator;
Treating apparatus, it is according to the current persons count of the described playground periphery obtained from least one pick-up unit described, idle capacity in the bus car that at least one roadside communicator described obtains and taxi light condition, and the subway transport ability calculated, detect current public transport supply and demand state, and predict the public transport supply and demand state in next cycle;
Wherein, at least one pick-up unit described, at least one roadside communicator, bus car-mounted device, taxi car-mounted device and treating apparatus form a wireless sensor network jointly, the information of pick-up unit or roadside communicator sends to treating apparatus by multi-hop mode, bus car-mounted device can only communicate with roadside communicator with taxi car-mounted device, and they add described wireless sensor network by dynamical fashion.
2. the system as claimed in claim 1, it comprises multiple pick-up unit, respectively the current persons count of detected activity place periphery zones of different; Described treating apparatus obtains current persons count from described multiple pick-up unit respectively.
3. the system as claimed in claim 1, it comprises multiple roadsides communicator, is deployed in vehicle and enters and leave on the road in region, ensures when bus and taxi enter region, can communicate with roadside communicator.
4. the system as described in any one of claim 1-3, wherein, described treating apparatus by judge public transport demand and public transport supply between difference, whether be greater than preset first threshold value, detect current public transport supply and demand state.
5. the system as described in any one of claim 1-3, wherein, described treating apparatus obtains current public transport demand after the current persons count obtained from all pick-up units being added, and calculate current public transport supply, by comparing public transport needs and public transport supply, detect current public transport supply and demand state, and predict the public transport supply and demand state in next cycle; Also by predicting the number that next cycle newly enters and the movement capacity in next cycle of public transport, predict whether next cycle crowd massing can occur.
6. system as claimed in claim 5, wherein, described treating apparatus predicts the public transport demand in next cycle according to following formula:
Wherein
represent the predicted value of t and t+1 moment public transport demand respectively, and set
y
1for t=1 moment public transport demand; α is predetermined coefficent of exponential smoothing.
7. system as claimed in claim 5, wherein, described treating apparatus predicts the public transport supply in next cycle according to following formula:
Wherein
represent the predicted value of t and the supply of t+1 moment public transport respectively, and set
z
1for the public transport in t=1 moment supplies, β is predetermined coefficent of exponential smoothing.
8. system as claimed in claim 5, wherein, described public transport supply comprises the movement capacity of bus, subway and taxi, and the calculating of described bus movement capacity comprises:
When bus enters system coverage area, bus car-mounted device is set up network with roadside communicator and is connected, idle capacity EC1 current in bus is sent to roadside communicator, after roadside communicator receives by data retransmission to treating apparatus, current bus movement capacity is increased EC1 by treating apparatus, obtain the current bus movement capacity after upgrading, and increase a record in a database, the corresponding relation of record No. ID, bus and EC1;
When bus leaves system coverage area, bus car-mounted device is set up network with roadside communicator and is connected, roadside communicator sends to treating apparatus by bus No. ID, treating apparatus is according to No. ID, bus, find the bus transportation supplies EC2 that No. ID, bus is corresponding, current bus movement capacity is reduced EC2, obtains the current bus movement capacity after upgrading, and delete the record of No. ID, bus and EC2 corresponding relation in a database.
9. system as claimed in claim 5, wherein, described treating apparatus by judge next cycle public transport demand and public transport supply between difference, whether be greater than default Second Threshold, predict the public transport supply and demand state in next cycle.
10. public transport supply and demand state-detection and a Forecasting Methodology, it comprises:
Based on the video image collected, detect the current persons count in coverage;
Using current persons count's sum of each check point as current period public transport demand;
According to the idle capacity of bus entering and leave neighboring area, calculate the bus movement capacity of current period;
According to the idle capacity of taxi entering and leave neighboring area, calculate the taxi movement capacity of current period;
The base area iron Operational Timelines, calculate the subway transport ability of current period;
According to bus, taxi and subway transport ability, calculate the public transport supply of current period;
By calculating the difference between the public transport demand of current period and public transport supply, calculate current period public transport supply and demand state;
According to the public transport demand of current period, predict the public transport demand in next cycle;
Public transport according to current period supplies, and predicts the public transport supply in next cycle;
By calculating the difference between the public transport demand in next cycle and public transport supply, predict the public transport supply and demand state in next cycle.
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| US11854404B2 (en) | 2019-07-17 | 2023-12-26 | Uber Technologies, Inc. | Computing timing intervals for vehicles through directional route corridor |
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| CN104574959B (en) * | 2014-12-24 | 2017-02-01 | 中国科学院自动化研究所 | System and method for predicting supply and demand states of taxis in airports |
| CN104715608B (en) * | 2015-03-26 | 2017-01-11 | 杭州电子科技大学 | Around-the-clock all-area taxi gathering real-time monitoring method based on HBase |
| CN106548300A (en) * | 2016-11-28 | 2017-03-29 | 中兴软创科技股份有限公司 | Taxi supply and demand analysis method and system |
| JP6810786B2 (en) * | 2017-02-27 | 2021-01-06 | 株式会社Ｎｔｔドコモ | Demand forecaster |
| CN109598925B (en) * | 2017-09-30 | 2021-03-02 | 厦门雅迅网络股份有限公司 | Taxi gathering alarm method, terminal equipment and storage medium |
| JP6338006B1 (en) | 2017-11-02 | 2018-06-06 | オムロン株式会社 | Human concentration analysis device, destination planning device, human concentration analysis system, vehicle, and human concentration analysis program |
| US10559211B2 (en) | 2017-11-27 | 2020-02-11 | Uber Technologies, Inc. | Real-time service provider progress monitoring |
| CN108830509B (en) * | 2018-07-11 | 2021-11-23 | 宁波大学 | Method for dynamically adjusting capacity scale of touring taxi |
| US20200393256A1 (en) * | 2019-06-14 | 2020-12-17 | Uber Technologies, Inc. | Managing movement of vehicles through directional route corridors |
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| CN101681555B (en) * | 2007-10-26 | 2012-11-28 | 松下电器产业株式会社 | Situation judging device, situation judging method, abnormality judging device, and abnormality judging method |
| CN102044149B (en) * | 2011-01-12 | 2012-08-08 | 北京交通大学 | City bus operation coordinating method and device based on time variant passenger flows |
| CN202067405U (en) * | 2011-02-21 | 2011-12-07 | 汪日亮 | Personnel and vehicle dispatching monitoring system |
| CN102521976B (en) * | 2011-12-14 | 2014-08-27 | 江苏省交通规划设计院股份有限责任公司 | Passenger flow identification and induction method of integrated passenger transport hub and system thereof |
| CN103065464B (en) * | 2012-12-24 | 2015-09-16 | 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院 | Real-time passenger flow characteristic analysis method and system |
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