CN103778778A - Rapid bus station service information system and rapid bus arrival information measuring and calculating method - Google Patents
Rapid bus station service information system and rapid bus arrival information measuring and calculating method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Disclosed is a rapid bus station service information system. The system comprises a central processing platform for in charge of storing station positions, corresponding electronic bulletin screens and rapid docking bus information, and storing the license, seat number, full load number and attribution line information of each bus; a bus information subsystem and a GPS positioning subsystem for acquiring and storing the licenses, positions, current passenger numbers, docking time at each station all the way, and getting-on and getting-off numbers of the buses; a station subsystem for acquiring the numbers of passengers entering platforms for bus wafting at each time period; and a bayonet subsystem for obtaining average speeds at each road section of the buses and speculating bus arrival time according to this, and measuring and calculating bus arrival data through a rapid bus arrival data prediction model. The invention also provides a rapid bus arrival information measuring and calculating method. By using the system and method provided by the invention, the numbers inside the buses when the buses dock at each station and getting-on and getting-off numbers and bus waiting numbers at each station can be effectively predicted, and the data information is of good practicality.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to public traffic information service field, the arrive at a station measuring method of information of especially a kind of fast bus station service information system and quick public transport.
Background technology
Along with urban traffic blocking aggravation, also increasing for the pressure that traffic administration brings, and public transport is also more and more subject to as the important means of alleviating traffic congestion the attention that vehicle supervision department payes attention to.How to provide good service for citizen take bus to go on a journey, be a heat subject of current intelligent transportation field.Aspect bus trip, there is following problem at present:
When citizen wait for bus AT STATION, sometimes have multiple choices, except arrival time, people are also concerned about the loading problem of public transit vehicle, the load of Dang Mou road bus or arrival time exceed passenger while expecting, and passenger can select to take the bus of other routes or select to beat.But at present bus platform is only provided the prediction case of vehicle arrival time, fail to provide the vehicle Che Neiche visitor quantitative forecast situation while arriving at a station of arriving at a station.
In the time calculating bus load, only add up the number of people in car of this car in the time of platform stop on the way, lack the method that when each platform is stopped in the back to this vehicle, number of people in car is predicted.
Summary of the invention
Number of people in car, the poor deficiency of data message practicality while stop in order to overcome single, the unpredictable each platform of content of existing bus platform information on services mode, get on or off the bus number and the number of waiting, good fast bus station service information system and bus and the platform psgrs. No. of measuring method of data message practicality of number of people in car and each platform when the invention provides the each platform of a kind of effective prediction and stopping.
The technical solution adopted for the present invention to solve the technical problems is:
A kind of fast bus station service information system, described service information system comprises central processing platform, gps positioning subsystem, bus information subsystem, platform subsystem and can calculate in real time the bayonet socket subsystem of each road-section average OD road speed or time, wherein
Central processing platform, for the bus rapid transit line information of being responsible for storing gate position, corresponding BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen and stopping, stores car plate, seating capacity, fully loaded number and the ownership line information of each public transit vehicle;
Bus information subsystem and gps positioning subsystem, for gathering and store the car plate, position, current ridership of public transit vehicle, stopping the time at each station and the number information that gets on or off the bus on the way;
Platform subsystem, enters for gathering each time end the ridership that platform is waited;
Bayonet socket subsystem, for obtaining public transit vehicle in the average speeds in each section and inferring accordingly time of public transit vehicle in-track platform; By the bus rapid transit data prediction model measuring and calculating bus arrival data of arriving at a station;
BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen display at platform is shown corresponding information: seating capacity in car, fully loaded number, estimate arrival time, number of people in car and whether fully loaded while arriving at a station.
The arrive at a station measuring method of information of quick public transport, described measuring method comprises the following steps:
(1), set up the bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station, the described bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station comprises following parameter: number of people in car C while waiting the number H of this bus, number U that vehicle is got on the bus at this platform, number D that vehicle is got off at this platform, vehicle to this station when the distance L of vehicle and this platform, vehicle arrival station required time T, vehicle reach the stylish number N that arrives at a station in this station, enter the probability P of taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform, the number that waits the in real time W, vehicle of this bus is to this station in platform;
The ratio that is set in the passenger that platform gets off meets local linear rule, predicts as follows the number that platform is got off:
Predictor formula 1:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-1 regular bus of getting off in x regular bus=
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-2 regular bus of getting off in x-1 regular bus
Also:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-2 regular bus of getting off in passenger ratio=2* x-1 regular bus of getting off in x regular bus;
Be set in enter platform ridership meet local linear rule, platform is according to the once nearly n minute number that enters the station of every n minute statistics, the composition ordered series of numbers that enters the station, N
1, N
2..., N
k..., have:
Predictor formula 2, k=3,4,5 ...:
N
k-N
k-1=N
k-1-N
k-2
Also: N
k=2*N
k-1-N
k-2
The distance L of next class of bus and front platform is obtained by GPS positioning subsystem;
Next class of bus arrives front platform required time T and obtains by bayonet socket subsystem, and obtain manner is as follows:
(1.1.1) obtain vehicle location according to GPS positioning system;
(1.1.2) obtain from the section of vehicle current location in-track platform process according to vehicle location;
(1.1.3) obtain in real time average running time in each section;
(1.1.4) calculate the temporal summation of vehicle through these sections;
It is as follows that next class of bus reaches the stylish number N obtain manner that arrives at a station of front platform:
(1.2.1) two number N that enter the station for n minute before slave station estrade system acquisition
1and N
2;
(1.2.2) arrive this station required time T according to vehicle, be converted into several n minute,
And then formation ordered series of numbers N
1, N
2, N
3..., N
k, k=[T/n];
(1.2.3) calculate successively N according to predictor formula 2
3..., N
k;
(1.2.4) vehicle reaches the stylish number N=N that arrives at a station in this station
3+ N
4+ ..., N
k;
(1.2.5) due to the every n of system minute statistics one secondary data, therefore every n minute reruns once
The number of newly arriving at a station;
Enter that in the passenger of certain platform, to take the probability P obtain manner of each circuit bus rapid transit as follows:
(1.3.1) initialization: add up platform number and the get on the bus number of nearest Yi Zhouge road quick public transport in the time that this platform is stopped, this bus get on the bus total number of persons and the ratio of total ridership that enters platform, be passenger and take the probability P of corresponding quick public transport circuit
0, all time point P initialization values are all set to P
0;
(1.3.2) P value update algorithm: when certain moment public transit vehicle arrives this platform, after passenger loading, vehicle does not carry completely, and the passenger who takes this road public transport all gets on the bus, and remaining passenger does not all take the public transport of this circuit, and this time point P value is adjusted as follows:
The platform total passenger of waiting when P=P/2+(gets on the bus ridership/arrive at a station)/2
Calculate thus the probability of taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger that each time point enters this platform;
The number of waiting the in real time W of each public bus network of certain platform obtains in the following manner:
(1.4.1) establishing this platform has k bar bus routes, and the personnel of entering the station take the general of each circuit
Rate is P successively
1, P
2... P
k;
(1.4.2) initialization, setting platform total number of persons is W
always, each the circuit number of waiting is followed successively by:
W
1=W
always* P
1
W
2=W
always* P
2
…
W
k=W
always* P
k
(1.4.3) W value update algorithm:
I. each passenger enters platform needs to swipe the card, the people that often comes in, and each bus waiting number added value is followed successively by P
1, P
2... P
k1.4.
Ii.Dang Mou road bus is come this platform, and the number of getting on the bus is U
1, underload or U when if vehicle leaves
1>W
1, think that this road public transport passenger that waits all gets on the bus, therefore by W
1be set to 0, other public transport number of waiting in real time is all multiplied by (W
always-U
1)/W
always
Fully loaded and U when iii. if vehicle leaves
1<=W
1:
W
always=W
always-U
1
W
1=W
1—U
1
Other are constant;
The number N* that when vehicle waits next regular bus of the number of waiting in real time W+ of taking this regular vehicle in this platform of number H=of this bus during to certain platform and arrives this platform, expectation can arrive newly takes the probability P of this route to passenger;
(2) when next time regular bus arrives certain platform, number of people in car C, the number U getting on the bus and the number D that gets off predict as follows:
(2.1) set between regular bus and this platform and have k platform, number consecutively be No. 1 platform, No. 2 platform ..., k platform, described k platform is this platform;
(2.2) number of people in car C and the number of getting off while calculating successively next regular bus and arrive j platform, j=1,2 ..., k;
Step 2.2.1. makes j=1, number of people in car C when No. 1 platform
1be when real-time number in front truck, can from bus information subsystem, obtain number of people in car C while arriving No. 1 platform
1known;
Step 2.2.2. obtains waiting when next regular bus arrives j platform the number H of this bus by step (1)
j;
Several Z that have a full house of next time regular bus of step 2.2.3. obtain from bus information subsystem, therefore next regular bus is at the j platform number U that gets on the bus
jcalculate by following formula:
U
j=MIN（H
j，Z-C
j）
The number of people in car of the arrival j platform of nearest two regular buses of this circuit of step 2.2.4. and the number of getting off are all obtained from bus information subsystem, calculate thus passenger's ratio that nearest two regular buses are got off;
Step 2.2.5. is according to step 2.2.2 result of calculation, passenger's the ratio of getting off when applying mechanically predictor formula 1 and can calculating next regular bus and arrive j platform;
Step 2.2.6. calculates next regular bus number of getting off D at j platform
j, D
jnumber of people in car C when=in-track platform
j* passenger's the ratio of getting off when next regular bus arrives j platform;
When next regular bus of step 2.2.7. rolls j platform away from, number of people in car predicted value can be calculated by following formula:
C
j+1=C
j+U
j-D
j
Get successively j=2,3 ..., k, repeating step 2.2.2～2.2.7, can calculate next regular bus and arrive the 2nd, 3 ..., number of people in car C, the number U getting on the bus and the number D that gets off when k platform.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is mainly manifested in: 1, by obtaining the loading condition that arrives our station in bus rapid transit circuit through bus platform Ge road public transit vehicle, citizen can be in conjunction with vehicle arrival time, selects to take in acceptable time range the public transit vehicle of " free time "; Meanwhile, the present invention also measurable go out each platform get on or off the bus number and the number of waiting, for sending of bus rapid transit provides reference; 2, for citizen select to provide more fully and help while taking bus rapid transit.Citizen except obtaining the distance of each road bus rapid transit and our station and arriving the time of this platform, can also obtain all kinds of information of arriving at a station of bus on platform, when load exceedes a certain limit in the time that bus rapid transit arrives our station, point out this car " to be fully loaded with ".
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is system construction drawing of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram that obtains the information of arriving at a station when quick public transport vehicle arrives certain platform of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the measuring and calculating process flow diagram of next time regular bus of the present invention number of people in car, the number of getting on the bus and number of getting off while arriving certain platform.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the invention will be further described.
With reference to Fig. 1～Fig. 3, a kind of fast bus station service information system, comprise central processing platform, gps positioning subsystem, bus information subsystem, platform subsystem and can calculate in real time the bayonet socket subsystem of each road-section average OD road speed (or time), wherein
Central processing platform is the core of system, is responsible for the information such as the bus rapid transit circuit that stores gate position, corresponding BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen, stop, stores the information such as car plate, seating capacity, fully loaded number and ownership circuit of each public transit vehicle;
Bus information subsystem and the collection of gps positioning subsystem are also stored the car plate, position, current ridership of public transit vehicle, are stopped the time at each station and the information such as number of getting on or off the bus on the way;
Platform subsystem gathers each time end and enters the ridership that platform is waited;
Bayonet socket subsystem obtains public transit vehicle in the average speeds in each section and infers accordingly time of public transit vehicle in-track platform; By the bus rapid transit data prediction model measuring and calculating bus arrival data of arriving at a station; Show corresponding information (seating capacity in car, fully loaded number, estimate arrival time, number of people in car while arriving at a station, whether fully loaded etc.) in the BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen display of platform.
The arrive at a station measuring method of information of quick public transport, described measuring method comprises the following steps:
(1), set up the bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station, the described bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station comprises following parameter: number of people in car C while waiting the number H of this bus, number U that vehicle is got on the bus at this platform, number D that vehicle is got off at this platform, vehicle to this station when the distance L of vehicle and this platform, vehicle arrival station required time T, vehicle reach the stylish number N that arrives at a station in this station, enter the probability P of taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform, the number that waits the in real time W, vehicle of this bus is to this station in platform;
Number of people in car when vehicle departures (leaving from station), the number of people in car while being also the vehicle arrival next stop
The ratio that is set in the passenger that platform gets off meets local linear rule, predicts as follows the number that platform is got off:
Predictor formula 1:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-1 regular bus of getting off in x regular bus=
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-2 regular bus of getting off in x-1 regular bus
Also:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-2 regular bus of getting off in passenger ratio=2* x-1 regular bus of getting off in x regular bus;
Be set in enter platform ridership meet local linear rule, platform gets 5 according to every n(n, also can get 10 other numerals such as grade) the once nearly n minute number that enters the station of minute statistics, the composition ordered series of numbers that enters the station, N
1, N
2..., N
k...Have:
Predictor formula 2(k=3,4,5 ...):
N
k-N
k-1=N
k-1-N
k-2
Also: N
k=2*N
k-1-N
k-2
The distance L of next class of bus and front platform is obtained by GPS positioning subsystem;
Next class of bus arrives front platform required time T and obtains by bayonet socket subsystem, and obtain manner is as follows:
(1.1.1) obtain vehicle location according to GPS positioning system;
(1.1.2) obtain from the section of vehicle current location in-track platform process according to vehicle location;
(1.1.3) obtain in real time average running time in each section;
(1.1.4) calculate the temporal summation of vehicle through these sections;
It is as follows that next class of bus reaches the stylish number N obtain manner that arrives at a station of front platform:
(1.2.1) two number N that enter the station for n minute before slave station estrade system acquisition
1and 9N
2;
(1.2.2) arrive this station required time T according to vehicle, be converted into several n minute,
And then formation ordered series of numbers N
1, N
2, N
3..., N
k(k=[T/n]);
(1.2.3) calculate successively N according to predictor formula 2
3..., N
k;
(1.2.4) vehicle reaches the stylish number N=N that arrives at a station in this station
3+ N
4+ ..., N
k;
(1.2.5) due to the every n of system minute statistics one secondary data, therefore every n minute reruns once
The number of newly arriving at a station;
Enter that in the passenger of certain platform, to take the probability P obtain manner of each circuit bus rapid transit as follows:
(1.3.1) initialization: add up platform number and the get on the bus number of nearest Yi Zhouge road quick public transport in the time that this platform is stopped, this bus get on the bus total number of persons and the ratio of total ridership that enters platform, be passenger and take the probability P of corresponding quick public transport circuit
0, all time point P initialization values are all set to P
0;
(1.3.2) P value update algorithm: when certain moment public transit vehicle arrives this platform, after passenger loading, vehicle does not carry completely, and the passenger who takes this road public transport all gets on the bus, and remaining passenger does not all take the public transport of this circuit, and this time point P value is adjusted as follows:
The platform total passenger of waiting when P=P/2+(gets on the bus ridership/arrive at a station)/2
Calculate thus the probability of taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger that each time point enters this platform.
The number of waiting the in real time W of each public bus network of certain platform obtains in the following manner:
(1.4.1) establishing this platform has k bar bus routes, and the personnel of entering the station take the general of each circuit
Rate is P successively
1, P
2... P
k;
(1.4.2) initialization, setting platform total number of persons is W
always, each the circuit number of waiting is followed successively by:
W
1=W
always* P
1
W
2=W
always* P
2
…
W
k=W
always* P
k
(1.4.3) W value update algorithm:
I. each passenger enters platform needs to swipe the card, the people that often comes in, and each bus waiting number added value is followed successively by P
1, P
2... P
k1.4.
Ii.Dang Mou road bus (for ease of setting forth, take 1 bus as example) is come this platform, and the number of getting on the bus is U
1(this numerical value can obtain from bus information subsystem); Underload or U when if vehicle leaves
1>W
1, think that the 1 tunnel public transport passenger that waits all gets on the bus, therefore by W
1be set to 0, other public transport number of waiting in real time is all multiplied by (W
always-U
1)/W
always
Fully loaded and U when iii. if vehicle leaves
1<=W
1:
W
always=W
always-U
1
W
1=W
1—U
1
Other are constant;
The number N* that when vehicle waits next regular bus of the number of waiting in real time W+ of taking this regular vehicle in this platform of number H=of this bus during to certain platform and arrives this platform, expectation can arrive newly takes the probability P of this route to passenger;
(2) when next time regular bus arrives certain platform, number of people in car C, the number U getting on the bus and the number D that gets off predict as follows:
(2.1) set between regular bus and this platform, have k platform (containing this platform), number consecutively be No. 1 platform, No. 2 platform ..., k platform (being this platform)
(2.2) calculate successively next regular bus and arrive j(j=1,2 ..., k) number of people in car C and the number of getting off when number platform:
Step 2.2.1. makes j=1, number of people in car C when No. 1 platform
1be when real-time number in front truck, can from bus information subsystem, obtain number of people in car C while arriving No. 1 platform
1known;
Step 2.2.2. obtains waiting when next regular bus arrives j platform the number H of this bus by step (1)
j;
Several Z that have a full house of next time regular bus of step 2.2.3. obtain from bus information subsystem, therefore next regular bus is at the j platform number U that gets on the bus
jcalculate by following formula:
U
j=MIN（H
j，Z-C
j）
The number of people in car of the arrival j platform of nearest two regular buses of this circuit of step 2.2.4. and the number of getting off are all obtained from bus information subsystem, calculate thus passenger's ratio that nearest two regular buses are got off;
Step 2.2.5. is according to step 2.2.2 result of calculation, passenger's the ratio of getting off when applying mechanically predictor formula 1 and can calculating next regular bus and arrive j platform;
Step 2.2.6. calculates next regular bus number of getting off D at j platform
j(number of people in car C when=in-track platform
j* passenger's the ratio of getting off when next regular bus arrives j platform)
When next regular bus of step 2.2.7. rolls j platform (also arriving j+1 platform) away from, number of people in car predicted value can be calculated by following formula:
C
j+1=C
j+U
j-D
j
Get successively j=2,3 ..., k, repeating step 2.2.2～2.2.7, can calculate next regular bus and arrive the 2nd, 3 ..., number of people in car C, the number U getting on the bus and the number D that gets off when k platform.K value generally can not be greater than 3 in actual applications, therefore can not produce too large error.
Example: Fig. 3 is the unidirectional operation situation schematic diagram of 1 road quick public transport circuit at 8:41 one day.For ease of setting forth, suppose that known conditions is as follows:
1, the distance between each website is 3000 meters
2, public transit vehicle be seating capacity 60, fully loaded several 80.
3, ignore the time (sailing and roll away from the same time point of platform into represents) that bus is stopped at platform.
4, bus platform is only stopped 1 road quick public transport on the way, and entering the probability P of taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform is 1, and all passengers of entering the station all take 1 road quick public transport.
The present embodiment illustrates as an example of 4#～6# platform example, and other platforms are similar:
The first step, obtain 4# platform public transport information on services and issue at 4# platform:
Now next regular bus of 4# platform is the 8th regular bus;
Getting next bus from gps subsystem is 500 meters to the distance 5# platform;
Know that from bayonet socket subsystem the real-time average speed in the section between 3～4# platform is 15,000 ms/h, therefore the time of next time bus arrival 5# platform is 2 minutes; The time that arrives 5# platform is 8:43.
When obtaining the 8th regular bus and roll away from from 3# platform from bus information subsystem, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 38 people, and when also the 8th regular bus is stopped 4# platform, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 38 people.
Calculate next bus number of getting off at 4# platform: the ratio that slave station estrade system acquisition the 7th regular bus is got off at 4# platform is 2/36, the ratio that the 6th regular bus is got off at 4# platform is 2/36, when the 8th regular bus arrives 4# platform, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 38, therefore the 6th regular bus is 4# platform ridership=(2 × 2/36-2/36) × 38=2.1 ≈ 2 people that get off
The number of waiting while calculating next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 4# platform:
The current station of the slave station estrade system acquisition number of waiting for bus is 13 people, the number that enters this station between 8:36～8:41 is 11 people, the number that enters this station between 8:31～8:36 is 9 people, infer that accordingly the number that enters this station between 8:41～8:46 is 2 × 11-9=13 people, average next coastiong of per minute 13/5=2.6 people arrives 4# platform also needs 2 minutes, will have 5 people and enter platform (2.6 × 2=5.2 ≈ 5).Therefore the number of waiting when next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 4# platform is 13+5=18 people
When next time bus leaves 4# platform, number of people in car is MIN (80,38+18-2)=54 people; Also when this car arrives 5# platform, number of people in car is 54 people;
Issue following information at 4# platform: " 1 bus, apart from 500 meters of our stations, arrives after 2 minutes (500 meters ÷ 15,000 ms/h=2 minutes), and ridership 38 people while arriving at a station, estimate that the number of getting off is 2 people ".
Second step, obtains 5# platform public transport information on services and issues at 5# platform:
Now next regular bus of 5# platform is the 6th regular bus;
Getting the 6th class of bus from GPS subsystem is 1200 meters to the distance 5# platform;
Knowing that from bayonet socket subsystem the real-time average speed in the section between 4#～5# platform is 15,000 ms/h, is 4.8 minutes (1200 meters ÷ 15,000 ms/h=4.8 minutes) therefore this car arrives the time of 5# platform, and the time that arrives 5# platform is 8:46.
When obtaining the 6th regular bus and roll away from from 4# platform from bus information subsystem, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 55 people, and when also the 6th regular bus sails 5# into, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 55 people.
Calculate next bus number of getting off at 5# platform: the ratio that slave station estrade system acquisition the 5th regular bus is got off at 5# platform is 5/46, the ratio that the 4th regular bus is got off at 5# platform is 4/43, when the 6th regular bus arrives 5# platform, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 38, therefore the 6th regular bus is 5# platform ridership=(2 × 5/46-4/43) × 55=6.8 ≈ 7 people that get off
The number of waiting while calculating next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 5# platform:
The current station of the slave station estrade system acquisition number of waiting for bus is 23 people, the number that enters this station between 8:36～8:41 is 9 people, the number that enters this station between 8:31～8:36 is 8 people, infer that accordingly the number that enters this station between 8:41～8:46 is 2 × 9-8=10 people, average next coastiong of per minute 10/5=2 people arrives 5# platform also needs 4.8 minutes, will have 10 people and enter platform (2 × 4.8=9.6 ≈ 10).Therefore the number of waiting when next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 4# platform is 23+10=33 people
When the 6th class of bus leaves 5# platform, number of people in car is MIN (80,55+33-7)=80 people; Also when the 6th class of bus arrives 6# platform, number of people in car is 80 people (being fully loaded with);
Issue following information at 5# platform: " 1 bus, apart from 1200 meters of our stations, arrives after 5 minutes, and ridership 55 people while arriving at a station estimate that the number of getting off is 7 people ".
The 3rd step, obtain 6# platform public transport information on services and issue at 6# platform:
Now next regular bus of 6# platform is also the 6th regular bus;
Getting the 6th class of bus from gps subsystem is 4200 meters to the distance 6# platform;
Know that from bayonet socket subsystem the real-time average speed in the section between 4#～5# platform is 15,000 ms/h, the real-time average speed in the section between 4#～5# platform is 12,000 ms/h, need 19.8 minutes (15,000 ms/h+3000 meters ÷ of 1200 meters of ÷ 12,000 ms/h=19.8 minutes) therefore this car arrives 6# platform, the time that arrives 5# platform is 9:01.
While knowing that by 8.22 the 6th regular bus rolls away from from 5# platform, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 55 people, and when also the 6th regular bus sails 6# into, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 80 people (being fully loaded with).
Calculate next bus number of getting off at 6# platform: the ratio that slave station estrade system acquisition the 5th regular bus is got off at 6# platform is 18/50, the ratio that the 4th regular bus is got off at 6# platform is 17/47, when the 6th regular bus arrives 6# platform, passenger inside the vehicle's number is 80, therefore the 6th regular bus is 6# platform ridership=(2 × 18/50-17/47) × 80=28.7 ≈ 29 people that get off
The number of waiting while calculating next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 6# platform:
The current station of the slave station estrade system acquisition number of waiting for bus is 5 people, the number that enters this station between 8:36～8:41 is 7 people, the number that enters this station between 8:31～8:36 is 7 people, infer that accordingly the number that enters this station between 8:41～8:46 is 2 × 7-7=7 people, average next coastiong of per minute 7/5=1.4 people arrives 5# platform also needs 19.8 minutes, will have 27 people and enter platform (1.4 × 19.8=27.2 ≈ 27).Therefore the number of waiting when next time Public Transit Bus Stopping 6# platform is 5+27=32 people
Number of people in car=MIN (80,80+32-29)=80 people when the 6th regular bus leaves 6# platform; Also when the 6th class of bus arrives 7# platform, number of people in car is 80 people (being fully loaded with);
Issue following information at 6# platform: " 1 bus, apart from 4200 meters of our stations, arrives after 20 minutes, and ridership 80 people (being fully loaded with) while arriving at a station estimate that the number of getting off is 29 people ".
Claims (2)
1. a fast bus station service information system, it is characterized in that: described service information system comprises central processing platform, gps positioning subsystem, bus information subsystem, platform subsystem and can calculate in real time the bayonet socket subsystem of each road-section average OD road speed or time, wherein
Central processing platform, for the bus rapid transit line information of being responsible for storing gate position, corresponding BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen and stopping, stores car plate, seating capacity, fully loaded number and the ownership line information of each public transit vehicle;
Bus information subsystem and gps positioning subsystem, for gathering and store the car plate, position, current ridership of public transit vehicle, stopping the time at each station and the number information that gets on or off the bus on the way;
Platform subsystem, enters for gathering each time end the ridership that platform is waited;
Bayonet socket subsystem, for obtaining public transit vehicle in the average speeds in each section and inferring accordingly time of public transit vehicle in-track platform; By the bus rapid transit data prediction model measuring and calculating bus arrival data of arriving at a station;
BBS (Bulletin Board System) screen display at platform is shown corresponding information: seating capacity in car, fully loaded number, estimate arrival time, number of people in car and whether fully loaded while arriving at a station.
2. the quick public transport measuring method for information that arrives at a station, is characterized in that: described measuring method comprises the following steps:
(1), set up the bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station, the described bus rapid transit data prediction model that arrives at a station comprises following parameter: number of people in car C while waiting the number H of this bus, number U that vehicle is got on the bus at this platform, number D that vehicle is got off at this platform, vehicle to this station when the distance L of vehicle and this platform, vehicle arrival station required time T, vehicle reach the stylish number N that arrives at a station in this station, enter the probability P of taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger of this platform, the number that waits the in real time W, vehicle of this bus is to this station in platform;
The ratio that is set in the passenger that platform gets off meets local linear rule, predicts as follows the number that platform is got off:
Predictor formula 1:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-1 regular bus of getting off in x regular bus=
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-2 regular bus of getting off in x-1 regular bus
Also:
Passenger's ratio of getting off in passenger's ratio-x-2 regular bus of getting off in passenger ratio=2* x-1 regular bus of getting off in x regular bus;
Be set in enter platform ridership meet local linear rule, platform is according to the once nearly n minute number that enters the station of every n minute statistics, the composition ordered series of numbers that enters the station, N
1, N
2..., N
k..., have:
Predictor formula 2, k=3,4,5 ...:
N
k-N
k-1=N
k-1-N
k-2
Also: N
k=2*N
k-1-N
k-2
The distance L of next class of bus and front platform is obtained by GPS positioning subsystem;
Next class of bus arrives front platform required time T and obtains by bayonet socket subsystem, and obtain manner is as follows:
(1.1.1) obtain vehicle location according to GPS positioning system;
(1.1.2) obtain from the section of vehicle current location in-track platform process according to vehicle location;
(1.1.3) obtain in real time average running time in each section;
(1.1.4) calculate the temporal summation of vehicle through these sections;
It is as follows that next class of bus reaches the stylish number N obtain manner that arrives at a station of front platform:
(1.2.1) two number N that enter the station for n minute before slave station estrade system acquisition
1and N
2;
(1.2.2) arrive this station required time T according to vehicle, be converted into several n minute,
And then formation ordered series of numbers N
1, N
2, N
3..., N
k, k=[T/n];
(1.2.3) calculate successively N according to predictor formula 2
3..., N
k;
(1.2.4) vehicle reaches the stylish number N=N that arrives at a station in this station
3+ N
4+ ..., N
k;
(1.2.5) due to the every n of system minute statistics one secondary data, therefore every n minute reruns once
The number of newly arriving at a station;
Enter that in the passenger of certain platform, to take the probability P obtain manner of each circuit bus rapid transit as follows:
(1.3.1) initialization: add up platform number and the get on the bus number of nearest Yi Zhouge road quick public transport in the time that this platform is stopped, this bus get on the bus total number of persons and the ratio of total ridership that enters platform, be passenger and take the probability P of corresponding quick public transport circuit
0, all time point P initialization values are all set to P
0;
(1.3.2) P value update algorithm: when certain moment public transit vehicle arrives this platform, after passenger loading, vehicle does not carry completely, and the passenger who takes this road public transport all gets on the bus, and remaining passenger does not all take the public transport of this circuit, and this time point P value is adjusted as follows:
The platform total passenger of waiting when P=P/2+(gets on the bus ridership/arrive at a station)/2
Calculate thus the probability of taking this road bus rapid transit in the passenger that each time point enters this platform;
The number of waiting the in real time W of each public bus network of certain platform obtains in the following manner:
(1.4.1) establishing this platform has k bar bus routes, and the personnel of entering the station take the general of each circuit
Rate is P successively
1, P
2... P
k;
(1.4.2) initialization, setting platform total number of persons is W
always, each the circuit number of waiting is followed successively by:
W
1=W
always* P
1
W
2=W
always* P
2
…
W
k=W
always* P
k
(1.4.3) W value update algorithm:
I. each passenger enters platform needs to swipe the card, the people that often comes in, and each bus waiting number added value is followed successively by P
1, P
2... P
k1.4.
Ii.Dang Mou road bus is come this platform, and the number of getting on the bus is U
1, underload or U when if vehicle leaves
1>W
1, think that this road public transport passenger that waits all gets on the bus, therefore by W
1be set to 0, other public transport number of waiting in real time is all multiplied by (W
always-U
1)/W
always
Fully loaded and U when iii. if vehicle leaves
1<=W
1:
W
always=W
always-U
1
W
1=W
1—U
1
Other are constant;
The number N* that when vehicle waits next regular bus of the number of waiting in real time W+ of taking this regular vehicle in this platform of number H=of this bus during to certain platform and arrives this platform, expectation can arrive newly takes the probability P of this route to passenger;
(2) when next time regular bus arrives certain platform, number of people in car C, the number U getting on the bus and the number D that gets off predict as follows:
(2.1) set between regular bus and this platform and have k platform, number consecutively be No. 1 platform, No. 2 platform ..., k platform, described k platform is this platform;
(2.2) number of people in car C and the number of getting off while calculating successively next regular bus and arrive j platform, j=1,2 ..., k;
Step 2.2.1. makes j=1, number of people in car C when No. 1 platform
1be when real-time number in front truck, can from bus information subsystem, obtain number of people in car C while arriving No. 1 platform
1known;
Step 2.2.2. obtains waiting when next regular bus arrives j platform the number H of this bus by step (1)
j;
Several Z that have a full house of next time regular bus of step 2.2.3. obtain from bus information subsystem, therefore next regular bus is at the j platform number U that gets on the bus
jcalculate by following formula:
U
j=MIN（H
j，Z-C
j）
The number of people in car of the arrival j platform of nearest two regular buses of this circuit of step 2.2.4. and the number of getting off are all obtained from bus information subsystem, calculate thus passenger's ratio that nearest two regular buses are got off;
Step 2.2.5. is according to step 2.2.2 result of calculation, passenger's the ratio of getting off when applying mechanically predictor formula 1 and can calculating next regular bus and arrive j platform;
Step 2.2.6. calculates next regular bus number of getting off D at j platform
j, D
jnumber of people in car C when=in-track platform
j* passenger's the ratio of getting off when next regular bus arrives j platform;
When next regular bus of step 2.2.7. rolls j platform away from, number of people in car predicted value can be calculated by following formula:
C
j+1=C
j+U
j-D
j
Get successively j=2,3 ..., k, repeating step 2.2.2～2.2.7, can calculate next regular bus and arrive the 2nd, 3 ..., number of people in car C, the number U getting on the bus and the number D that gets off when k platform.
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