CN103971288B - A kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning - Google Patents
A kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention is a kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning, a kind of structural steelwork Construction Risk Assessment method based on accident case reasoning for structural steelworks such as high-rise buildings, long span buildings is referred specifically to, is related to steel construction risk assessment technology field.This method includes the workflow of five steps such as extraction and input characteristic parameter and main monitoring index, risk identification, risk probability of happening and estimated amount of damage, risk assessment and risk accidents case library dilatation, realize from quantitative angle and reflect construction risk grade exactly, existing achievement in research can be incorporated into existing accident case storehouse simultaneously, the accident case and experience accumulation for making history are utilized well.The present invention is more accurate to the structural steelwork such as high-rise buildings, long span building Construction Risk Assessment, is easy to targetedly be prevented, controlled and reduced construction risk, ensures the safety of construction safety, has the advantage such as simple, quick, accurate, low cost.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to steel construction risk assessment technology field, refers specifically to a kind of for high-rise buildings, long span building etc.
The structural steelwork Construction Risk Assessment method based on accident case reasoning of engineering.
Background technology
Steel construction is acknowledged as having good anti-seismic performance, in fact, while steel construction obtains great achievement, generation
The accident of steel construction also frequently occurs in the range of boundary, in September, 1992, and No. 4 exhibition room racks of China Shenzhen International Exhibition Centre are in platform
Storm collapses in the rain；On July 8th, 2005, the Inner Mongol Xinfeng thermoelectricity project main building spherical net rack structure built are dashed forward
So cave in, 9 workers for just carrying out wall plaster at the scene are killed into 2 people, injure 7 people by a crashing object.In addition, steel construction fire incident also when
Have a generation, during afternoon 4 on the 14th of August in 2007 34 divide about, fire, this Shanghai occurs in the Shanghai World Financial Center Building built
First high building was once shrouded by black smoke, and segment glass curtain wall is burned and constantly had under the glass pendant of explosion.USA New York World Trade Organization
The scene that building collapses in the September 11 attacks of 2001 still comes clearly into view so far, in this accident, dead 2605
People, directly or indirectly economic loss reach hundreds billion of dollars.It can be seen that large-scale steel structure is because new in structure is complicated or scale is grand
Greatly, difficulty is larger in design, construction, great risk be present；In use, large-scale steel structure is often a city
Important or landmark building, once accident occurs, influence very severe.So by large-scale steel structure construction and using
Risk analysis in journey, control measure easy to implement are proposed, be reduced to risk minimum, it is significant.Only by rational
Methods of risk assessment is relatively accurately assessed structural steelwork risk, could targetedly control engineering construction wind
Danger, to ensure that engineering smoothly completes.In construction project commonly use the risky matrix method of methods of risk assessment, FTA,
Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Monte Carlo Analogue Method and Monte Carlo simulation method based on discrete event tree etc. on this basis.
But existing method can only carry out qualitative or semi-quantitative analysis, risk level can not be reflected exactly from quantitative angle
Just；Moreover, existing achievement in research can not be also incorporated into existing research by current methods of risk assessment, i.e. history
Accident case and experience accumulation are not utilized well, and uncertain factor also can not accurately be considered.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to overcome missing existing for prior art and deficiency, there is provided one kind is based on accident case reasoning
Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment.Occurred using the Construction of Steel Structure quality accidents case library of statistical accumulation as risk
The foundation of probability and loss estimating；Occur by the use of the business of event frequency and investigated engineering sum as event naturally general
Rate, by the use of the importance after the ratio normalized of same layer risk case frequency as the event to upper strata risk case.
Reference using the main characteristic parameters of evaluated Construction of Steel Structure project as risk identification, using expert investigation and case library number
According to analysis risk probability of happening and loss estimating are carried out, obtain the risk class and Construction of Steel Structure project of each risk case
Overall level of risk；Simultaneously using evaluated project as case addition accident case storehouse, realize case library dilatation and self
Study.
It is achieved by the following technical programs
A kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning, its feature be, including following specific
Step：
The first step, extract simultaneously input characteristic parameter and main monitoring index
The feature of risk parameter drawn is concluded according to risk accidents case library and main monitoring index, binding analysis are evaluated
Construction of Steel Structure project, extract its feature of risk parameter and main monitoring index and input to risk accidents case library.
The feature of risk parameter, such as structure type, height, span, construction, structure connection type, crane gear
Type.
The main monitoring index, such as stress monitoring index, wind-force monitoring index, tilt monitoring index.
Second step, risk identification
With reference to WBS-RBS decomposition texture methods, by comparing and analyzing with risk accidents case library statistics, thus it is speculated that commented
The major risk factors for the Construction of Steel Structure project estimated and potential risk event, identify that evaluated Construction of Steel Structure project is being applied
Existing principal risk during work.
3rd step, risk probability of happening and estimated amount of damage
By analyzing risk accidents case library and counting, Construction of Steel Structure case sum U and some risk case are obtained
Incidence xi, using probability-distribution function
P=Σ xi/U (1)
Reasoning obtains the probability of happening P for the risk case that needs are assessed；
The P values are between 0 and 1.
Counted by expert investigation and historical empirical data, the penalty values T of evaluated risk case is obtained, using logarithm
Function
C=5+lgT (2)
Penalty values are converted into logarithm loss late C.
4th step, risk assessment
According to formula：
R=P × C (3)
Carry out value-at-risk calculating；
Value-at-risk is substituted into level Four risk class evaluation table, determines risk class.
Wherein, P and C is respectively the log probability and logarithm loss late of risk case.
5th step, risk accidents case library dilatation
The Construction of Steel Structure project result that will be evaluated, by the structure of risk accidents case library, it is determined that evaluated project
Characteristic parameter, risk case and ultimate risk opinion rating, add risk accidents case library, constantly expand case radix, it is real
Self dilatation of existing risk accidents case library case, form the function of self-teaching；During constantly accumulation case, improve and know
Other and assessment accuracy.
Level Four risk class estimated risk acceptance criterion in the risk assessment of the four steps is divided into four grades, point
It is not：
Level Four red risk：Risk is high, and risk accidents consequence is very serious, engineering may be damaged interior in a big way
Or have some casualties.
The orange risk of three-level：Risk is general, and risk accidents consequence is general, and the scope that may be damaged to engineering is smaller.
Secondary yellow risk：Risk is relatively low, and risk accidents consequence can be ignored under certain condition, to engineering in itself and
Personnel, equipment etc. will not cause greater loss；
One-level Green Risk：Risk is minimum, and risk accidents consequence can be ignored, to engineering in itself and personnel, equipment etc.
Caused by loss it is minimum.
It is described need assess risk case be：Dimensional discrepancy, falling from high altitude, the deformation of member, welding node crackle, structure are collapsed
Collapse.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of workflow frame of the Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning of the present invention
Figure.
Embodiment
The present invention is described further with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples
Embodiment：It is built to certain city and carry out Construction quality and safety accident investigation in 276 structural steelworks building, act
The natural probability that the business of part frequency and investigated engineering sum occurs as event, with same layer risk case frequency
Ratio normalized after importance as the event to upper strata risk case.Its
The first step：Extract simultaneously input characteristic parameter and main monitoring index
By Shanghai City exemplified by structural steelwork project is built, the characteristic parameter that need to be extracted according to accident case storehouse, analysis
The characteristic parameter and characteristic value of the engineering, including structure type, height, span, construction, structure connection type, rise reset
Standby type, stress monitoring index, wind-force monitoring index, tilt monitoring index etc., and by the characteristic parameter and characteristic value of the engineering
Input to risk accidents case library.
Second step：Risk identification
By the comparison and Specialist Research with steel construction accident case storehouse, the main construction risk of the engineering is determined, including
Falling from high altitude, malformation, tower crane collapse, fire of constructing etc..
3rd step：Risk probability of happening and estimated amount of damage
Analyzed and counted by accident case, Construction of Steel Structure risk case probability of happening is obtained, using probability distribution letter
Number
P=Σ xi/U (1)
Probability of happening P, the P value for the risk case that reasoning obtains needing to assess is between 0 and 1；
Counted by expert investigation and historical empirical data, the penalty values T of evaluated risk case is obtained, using logarithm
Function formula
C=5+lgT (2)
Penalty values are converted into logarithm loss late C.
The risk case probability of happening of table 1 and loss late
4th step：Risk assessment
In the methods of risk assessment of the present invention, according to formula：
R=P × C (3)
Value-at-risk calculating is carried out, value-at-risk is substituted into level Four risk class evaluation table, determines risk class
The risk class evaluation table of table 2
The value-at-risk and risk class of the risk case of table 3
Wherein, P and C is respectively the log probability and logarithm loss late of risk case.
5th step：Risk accidents case library dilatation
By corresponding to present case characteristic parameter, risk case, risk probability of happening, value-at-risk input risk accidents case library
Position, event frequency change with investigated engineering sum, the automatic dilatation of case library, the corresponding wind being calculated
There occurs can change simultaneously with loss late for the risk of dangerous event；The risk for four principal risk events that present case includes occurs general
Rate and loss late change automatically.
The risk case probability of happening of table 4 and the front and rear change of loss late dilatation
In summary, the present invention is a kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning, passes through five
The workflow of individual step, realize from quantitative angle and reflect construction risk grade exactly, while can be by existing research
Achievement is incorporated into existing accident case storehouse, and the accident case and experience accumulation for making history are utilized well, of the invention
Method can carry out, to the structural steelwork Construction Risk Assessment such as high-rise buildings, long span building, making risk assessment more accurate, just
In targetedly being prevented, being controlled and being reduced construction risk, ensure the safety of construction safety, reduce risk etc..Have
Simply, quickly, accurately, the advantage such as low cost.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
The first step, extract simultaneously input characteristic parameter and main monitoring index
The feature of risk parameter drawn and main monitoring index, the evaluated steel of binding analysis are concluded according to risk accidents case library
Structure construction project, extract its feature of risk parameter and main monitoring index and input to risk accidents case library；
The feature of risk parameter, such as structure type, height, span, construction, structure connection type, crane gear type；
The main monitoring index, such as stress monitoring index, wind-force monitoring index, tilt monitoring index；
Second step, risk identification
By comparing and analyzing with risk accidents case library statistics, thus it is speculated that the main wind of evaluated Construction of Steel Structure project
Dangerous factor and potential risk event, identify evaluated Construction of Steel Structure project principal risk present in work progress；
3rd step, risk probability of happening and estimated amount of damage
Analyze and count by risk accidents case library, obtain Construction of Steel Structure case sum U and some risk case incidence
xi, using probability-distribution function, reasoning obtains the probability of happening P of the risk case of evaluated Construction of Steel Structure project；
The P values are between 0 and 1；
Counted by expert investigation and historical empirical data, obtain the loss of the risk case of evaluated Construction of Steel Structure project
Value T, using logarithmic function, penalty values are converted into logarithm loss late C
4th step, risk assessment
Application risk value calculation formula carries out value-at-risk R calculating, and value-at-risk R is substituted into level Four risk class evaluation table, determines wind
Dangerous grade；
Wherein P and C is respectively the log probability and logarithm loss late of risk case：
5th step, risk accidents case library dilatation
By the structure of risk accidents case library, will determine the characteristic parameter of evaluated Construction of Steel Structure project, risk case and
Ultimate risk opinion rating, risk accidents case library is added, realizes self dilatation of risk accidents case library case, formed self and learn
The function of habit.
2. the Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1 based on accident case reasoning, it is characterised in that
The second step, risk identification, using WBS-RBS decomposition texture methods；
3rd step, risk probability of happening and estimated amount of damage, wherein, the probability-distribution function is：
P=∑s xi/U (1)
The logarithmic function is：
C=5+lgT (2)
4th step, risk assessment, wherein, carrying out value-at-risk calculation formula is：
R=P × C (3).
3. the Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1 based on accident case reasoning, it is characterised in that
4th step, the level Four risk class evaluation in risk assessment are respectively：
Level Four red risk is：Risk is high, and risk accidents consequence is very serious, may in a big way it is interior engineering is damaged or
Have some casualties；
The orange risk of three-level is：Risk is general, and risk accidents consequence is general, and the scope that may be damaged to engineering is smaller；
Secondary yellow risk is：Risk is relatively low, and risk accidents consequence can be ignored under certain condition, to engineering in itself and people
Member, equipment will not cause greater loss；
One-level Green Risk is：Risk is minimum, and risk accidents consequence can be ignored, to engineering in itself and personnel, equipment cause
Loss it is minimum.
4. the Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1 based on accident case reasoning, it is characterised in that
The risk case is：Dimensional discrepancy, falling from high altitude, the deformation of member, welding node crackle, structure collapses.
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| CN106056319A (en) * | 2016-07-13 | 2016-10-26 | 吴志铭 | Evaluation method based on BIM and case-based reasoning for improving building safety design |
| CN108694517A (en) * | 2018-06-11 | 2018-10-23 | 北京石油化工学院 | A kind of statistical and analytical method of the harmful influence risk in transit factor based on big data |
| CN109034492B (en) * | 2018-08-16 | 2019-10-18 | 交通运输部公路科学研究所 | A kind of prediction technique of bridge pull sling puccinia graminis erosion risk of breakage |
| CN110556033A (en) * | 2019-07-30 | 2019-12-10 | 华电青岛发电有限公司 | Operation guiding system based on typical and accident case base of thermal power plant |
| CN110533305B (en) * | 2019-08-12 | 2022-04-15 | 北京科技大学 | Comprehensive prevention and control method for production safety accidents of metallurgical enterprises |
| CN113536441B (en) * | 2021-07-29 | 2024-04-05 | 北京大学 | Rapid deduction method and system for building structure damage analysis |
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