CN101109929A - Compound control system for building cost of light rail projects and control method thereof - Google Patents
Compound control system for building cost of light rail projects and control method thereof Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The utility model discloses a multiplex control system for the light rail construction cost, which comprises the main circuit for the construction cost control (ICS) and the feed-forward circuit (IRCS). The feed-forward circuit (IRCS) is composed of a risk structure module, an information acquisition and processing module and a pre-warning control module. The risk structure module introduces the WBS -RBS risk decomposing tool kit which consists of a work/risk decomposition texture, a AHP analytic approach, a specialist survey technique and a risk factors classification; the information acquisition and processing module adopts a risk information processing tool kit which consists of a indistinct synthesized measuring method, a risk 3D computational model and a CIM control model of memory; the pre-warning control module adopts a tool kit which comprises a AHP method, a specialist survey technique, a scenario analysis, and a risk management guide module. This utility model improves the reliability of the entire construction cost control as well as the reliability and the operability of the feed-forward circuit output.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the urban track traffic field, particularly relate to a kind of multiplex control system and control method of Light Rail Project cost.
Background technology
Urban rail traffic project (Urban Mass Transit/UMT) mainly comprises subway and light rail two big classes, in the construction costs field, domestic at present and the immediate cost Control research of the technology of the present invention mainly concentrate on sequential control and tandem definite value feedback control system, its technology mechanism mainly is the traditional migration of construction costs control method on the UMT project.The function group program optimization of cost Control such as the investment that the advantage of all kinds of UMT cost sequence control systems is mainly reflected in each stage of project starts, inquiry audit, interruption; It is the feedback regulation mechanism of main definite value that the advantage of all kinds of UMT cost tandem definite value feedback control systems is mainly reflected in budgetary estimate.
More than the common issue with that exists of two kinds of UMT cost Control technology be the presetting property of control program and the hysteresis of bias adjustment, pay attention to vertical ladder correction of construction costs, then response performance is relatively poor to horizontal environmental perturbation.Its reason is that the Light Rail Project characteristics have huge and duration of investment, quality and health, safety, the isoparametric inner couplings of environmental protection (HSE) is big, is the controlling unit of appearance more than one.Physical environment risk hidden danger such as the geology of the technical risk of engineering body, construction method risk and line of project, the hydrology, weather are many, cause the horizontal environmental perturbation of cost Control frequent and big, that is to say, for input changed, existing UMT sequential control and the output of tandem definite value FEEDBACK CONTROL showed as very big delaying and inertia.
Summary of the invention:
In order to address the above problem, the object of the present invention is to provide a kind ofly in existing UMT cost Control system, to embed a composite control method based on the feedforward control function of risk Metrics, thus improve existing UMT cost Control system under environmental perturbation fast, dynamic response characteristic.
Above-mentioned purpose of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of multiplex control system of Light Rail Project cost, it is made up of cost Control major loop (ICS) and feed-forward loop (IRCS).
Above-mentioned cost Control loop ICS is sequential control and tandem definite value feedback control system.
Above-mentioned feed-forward loop IRCS by carry out that risk is decomposed and weight type encoding function and export the weight subitem-risk Metrics (ASPR-M) of Light Rail Project the risk structure module, the node on the ASPR-M is carried out that investigation, identification and adjudicatory function and output contain the interface function of the information acquisition processing module of Light Rail Project material risk matrix (ARM) in risk source and execution and cost Control major loop and is that the early warning control module of interface unit is formed with the risk management handbook.
Above-mentioned risk structure module adopts the WBS-RBS risk that comprises work/risk decomposition texture (WBS-RBS), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), expert survey and risk factors classification to decompose kit.
Above-mentioned information acquisition processing module adopts the risk information handling implement bag that comprises fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, risk three dimensionality computation model and control memory models (Controlled Interval and Mamory Models/CIM).
Above-mentioned early warning control module adopts the kit of being made up of AHP method, expert survey, scenario analysis and risk management handbook masterplate.
The control method of above-mentioned multiplex control system is as follows:
1) adopting the risk control principle is feedforward control program design foundation with risk identification, estimation, evaluation, disposal.
2) enter the risk structure module, adopt the WBS-RBS method to decompose coding, set up the weight subitem-risk Metrics (ASPR-M) of Light Rail Project.
3) enter the information acquisition processing module, adopt risk information handling implement bag, finish investigation, identification and adjudicatory function that ASPR-M goes up the node risk, output contains the Light Rail Project material risk matrix in risk source.
4) enter early warning pre-control module, adopt early warning pre-control kit, generate the ordering of risk responsive measures, finish interface with Light Rail Project cost Control major loop ICS, realize the embedded feed forward function of IRCS with risk management handbook form.
5) regulate by the ICS major loop because the handling cost of endogenous variable time T, quality Q and health, safety, environmental protection (HSE) changes caused investment variation, contract cost by buying, payment/settlement, change/subroutines such as claim control Light Rail Project, by controlling risk property of IRCS feed-forward loop cost, finish the compound control of Light Rail Project cost.
The multiplex control system of Light Rail Project cost of the present invention and the beneficial effect of control method are:
1) improvement is comprehensive.Compare in the sequential control+tandem definite value feedback control system of domestic Light Rail Project with active service, improved the dynamic response characteristic of conventional cost Control system based on the Light Rail Project cost feedforward control system of risk Metrics to environmental change or disturbance, therefore the comprehensive and reliability of its control function is improved, and control of investment target completion rate can reach more than 90%.
2) improve reliability.Improve the reliability of whole cost Control except embedding the feedforward control function, the present invention also pays attention to improving the output reliability of feed-forward loop self.In the city track traffic engineering risk assessment technology, the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method has occupied very big usage ratio at home, and the data of it is advantageous that is obtained and handled relative simply, can fully carry out the integrated of all kinds of knowledge, posterior infromation stream.But blur estimation only provides between shelves risk to be judged, degree of risk can't refinement in the shelves, therefore, has influenced the specific aim and the operability of risk responsive measures.Therefore, the present invention is in the generation design of light rail risk Metrics, adopt the fuzzy comprehensive evoluation technology that WBS-RBS matrix node is carried out between shelves risk according to a preliminary estimate, on this basis, utilize three dimensionality risk amount calculated with mathematical model further to estimate a grade interior risk, thereby improved reliability as the risk Metrics of cost feedforward control foundation.
3) convenience, workable.Research and development means difficulty based on the feed-forward loop of risk Metrics is higher, the process complexity, but be end result output with Light Rail Project risk management handbook, use friendly interface, have the characteristics of directiveness, strong operability equally.
Description of drawings
1. Figure 1 shows that logical diagram based on the multiplex control system of the Light Rail Project cost of risk Metrics;
2. Figure 2 shows that process flow diagram based on the Light Rail Project cost feed forward control method of risk Metrics;
3. Figure 3 shows that the internal relations figure between RBS and the WBS;
4. Figure 4 shows that the first order job analysis tree of shore, Tianjin light rail project;
5. Figure 5 shows that the preparation of construction risk decomposition tree of shore, Tianjin light rail project;
6. Figure 6 shows that the investment risk additive process figure of shore, Tianjin light rail project;
7. Figure 7 shows that in the Light Rail Project of shore, Tianjin cost feedforward control process flow diagram based on risk Metrics.
Embodiment
Describe below in conjunction with the multiplex control system and the control method of accompanying drawing Light Rail Project cost of the present invention.
The multiplex control system of Light Rail Project cost of the present invention as shown in Figure 1.According to compound control theory, " sequential control and the definite value feedback cascade control system " of Light Rail Project regarded as the major loop ICS of cost Control.
The major function of ICS major loop is to regulate: because the endogenous variable time T, quality Q, the handling cost of HSE (health, safety, environmental protection) changes, caused investment changes, it mainly is to occur with the form of modificability cost with claim property cost that this investment changes, be exactly design in addition by subroutines such as buying, clearing, payments, the contract cost of control Light Rail Project.
In addition, develop a Light Rail Project material risk matrix that contains the risk source, and the matrix node is quantitatively sorted and disposes ordering, as the feed-forward loop IRCS of cost Control.This feed-forward loop mainly is made of three parts: risk structure module, nodal information acquisition processing module, early warning pre-control module.Wherein:
-risk structure module is carried out risk and is decomposed and weight type encoding function the weight subitem-risk Metrics (ASPR-M) of output Light Rail Project;
-information acquisition processing module goes up node to ASPR-M and carries out investigation, identification and adjudicatory function, and output contains the Light Rail Project material risk matrix (ARM) in risk source;
The interface function of execution of-early warning pre-control module and cost Control major loop, with the risk management handbook is interface unit, when external disturbance from environment, such as technology, nature, the social risk incident, affact controlling object---in the time of on certain subring joint that Light Rail Project is built, so, do not wait until that deviation appears in investment, rely on output---the risk management handbook of feedforward control loop IRCS, the risk factors that provide in the risk management handbook are provided, the early warning operating mode, preventive measure, emergency measure or the like, directly instruct engineering management, control of investment is moved in advance, the risk cost of control Light Rail Project.(listing project management file sequence in is one of service condition)
Figure 2 shows that operational flowchart based on the Light Rail Project cost feed forward control method of risk Metrics.As shown in the figure, described feed forward control method may further comprise the steps:
1) adopting the risk control principle is feedforward control program design foundation with risk identification, estimation, evaluation, disposal.
2) enter the risk structure module, adopt the WBS-RBS risk to decompose kit and finish the processing of construction investment risk structure.
Kit composition: WBS-RBS work/risk decomposition method, AHP analytical hierarchy process, expert survey, risk factors classification.
Adopt work breakdown structure (WBS) (workbreakdown structure/WBS) instrument in the project management techniques, decompose to obtain the task structure of project by sub-project, i.e. job analysis is set, and generates multistage subitem coded system.Job analysis progression criterion: decompose always and can occur till the optimal risk recognition unit.
The comparator matrix of utilization AHP method calculates the weight of every work, adopt expert survey (Delphi and scenario analysis are comprehensive) to obtain AHP and analyze required basic data series, generate the relative Link Importance judgment matrix that each subitem compares in twos, when matrix data is handled, select for use the root method to calculate the weight of each subitem (saddlebag).
Utilization risk factors classification, on each node of the WBS of weight type, discern risk by policy, economy, technology, nature, site environment, management and coordination, social factor, the risk source presents on the job analysis tree step by step, generates the Light Rail Project weight subitem-risk Metrics ASPR-M that describes with WBS-RBS.This tree can be showed the risk status overall picture of the important subitem of engineering, meets the systematicness and the materiality principle of risk identification fully.
3) enter the information acquisition processing module, adopt risk information handling implement bag, finish investigation, identification and adjudicatory function that ARSP-M goes up the node risk, output contains the Light Rail Project material risk matrix in risk source.
Kit composition: fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, risk three dimensionality computation model, CIM control interval memory models.
Adopt fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, finish the fuzzy language of risk between weight subitem-risk tree (ARST-M) node and describe, according to a preliminary estimate risk between shelves.Adopt expert survey to collect the subjective data of light rail evaluation of risk, (can carry out simultaneously) with the AHP investigation.Collect the risk data of similar Light Rail Project simultaneously, make fuzzy comprehensive evoluation after gathering.
Employing contains " controllability of probability of happening, loss level, risk " fuzzy indicator at interior risk three dimensionality computation model, finishes the quantitatively accurately portrayal of WBS-RBS intra-node risk;
The risk amount can be represented with relative indicatrix and two kinds of forms of absolute index.
Computational mathematics model (absolute index) is as follows:
Risk amount=E (risk probability of happening * risk loss level) * risk uncontrollability.
In the formula: the risk probability of happening---the possibility that risk takes place, represent with the risk statistical probability;
Risk loss level---risk takes place to cause subjectinsured economic loss volume;
The risk uncontrollability---with the uncontrollable degree of fractional representation risk between the 0-1.
Adopt CIM control interval memory models (Controlled Interval and Memory Model), obtain Light Rail Project total cost static expanding risk probability curve.At first obtain the subjective estimation data of each risk factors to the influence of Light Rail Project cost by expert survey, adopt CIM response model in parallel, each risk factors of kinds of construction are superposeed to this Project Cost influence, obtain the combined influence of each risk factors to this kinds of construction investment, the investment risk that obtains this kinds of construction distributes, and characteristic number (average, standard deviation).After the investment risk of calculating each kinds of construction distributes, adopt CIM series connection response model, the probability stack is carried out in the investment risk distribution of each kinds of construction, can obtain the probability risk static distribution of whole construction investment.
4) enter early warning pre-control module, adopt early warning pre-control kit, generate the ordering of risk responsive measures, finish interface with Light Rail Project cost Control major loop ICS, realize the embedded feed forward function of IRCS with risk management handbook form.
Kit composition: AHP method, expert survey, scenario analysis, risk management handbook masterplate.
Provide a risk responsive measures priority ordering basic model based on prevention and control ability, risk guarantee ability and the integrated evaluation of processing cost three elements.And and risk identification, estimate that conclusion combines, risk responsive measures to material risk is carried out priority ordering, input and operation " risk management handbook masterplate, the risk factors that provide, early warning operating mode, preventive measure, emergency measure or the like, directly instruct engineering management, control of investment is moved in advance, the risk cost of control Light Rail Project.
The condition that puts into operation based on the Light Rail Project cost feedforward control system of risk Metrics:
1, to the requirement of organizational environment: invest to build effective vertical integration pattern.
2, to the requirement of technological accumulation and inheritance: " the risk management handbook must be listed engineering proprietor and agency's thereof project management file sequence in.
Being example with " Light Rail Project first phase eastern section, shore, Tianjin engineering " below is elaborated to the multiplex control system and the control method of Light Rail Project cost of the present invention.
One, shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project risk structure module
The WBS-RBS method is that intersection is mutually decomposed in job analysis and risk, forms the work risk Metrics, judges whether to exist corresponding risk one by one according to matrix element.WBS wherein is the operation decomposition texture, and RBS is the risk decomposition texture, and both are in conjunction with the fabrication process risk Metrics, as shown in Figure 3.The carrying out the risk identification and need experience three steps of utilization WBS-RBS method: the first step, carry out job analysis, form the operation decomposition tree; In second step, the risk branch is deconstructed into the risk decomposition tree; The 3rd step intersected job analysis tree and risk decomposition tree, began to take shape the WBS-RBS matrix, judged having or not of risk according to matrix element one by one then.
The UMT engineering risk matrix of describing with WBS-RBS (can be converted into the job analysis summary sheet, in order to evaluation of risk, the evaluation activity of back) is showed the overall picture of engineering risk state, meets the principle of systenatization of risk identification fully.According to the Light Rail Project characteristics, the comparator matrix of utilization AHP method calculates the weight of every work, meets the materiality principle that risk is debated knowledge fully again.
From the construction task of shore, Tianjin light rail project, system engineering is divided into four parts altogether: civil engineering, track engineering, electromechanical engineering and preparation of construction, and first three part is a major project, the risk of construction period mainly concentrates on this part, is the emphasis of venture analysis.First order operation decomposition tree and coding are seen Fig. 4.
The comparator matrix of utilization AHP method calculates the weight of every operation.Its computation process is divided into two steps, at first obtains the raw data of comparator matrix, uses the root method to calculate the weight of subjob then.For the judgement that makes relative Link Importance more approaching objective, utilize the expert investigation table to visit professional and other relevant personnel such as engineering design, construction, management and field management, obtain investment, construction technology, design alteration, the work progress information of the aspects such as problem of appearance easily, provide the relative significance level that every operation is compared in twos, thereby make up the judgment matrix of relative Link Importance.When matrix data is handled, select for use the root method to calculate the weight of each saddlebag.
In job analysis (WBS), work a series of relatively independent saddlebags have been decomposed to form layer by layer.When risk was decomposed (RBS), the venture analysis thought of utilization AHP method was chosen typical saddlebag (risk status is representative) and is decomposed for object carries out risk, forms the venture analysis framework.For example: the risk decomposition tree of the preparation of construction W1 during first order operation is decomposed as shown in Figure 5.
Based on the risk structure processing of WBS, its some risks that pick out may be repetitions, for the ease of the system engineering risk identification of back, here risk are sorted out.In the process that risk is sorted out, identical or similar risk source is classified as a class.
The row vector of the sub-saddlebag of the bottom of job analysis formation as matrix, each sub-risk that risk is decomposed makes up the sub-project-risk Metrics of WBS and RBS intersection as column vector.After the matrix frame structure is finished, next judge the risk status of each matrix element, finally represent the risk identification result with matrix form.In the Light Rail Project of shore, Tianjin, when judging the risk status of each matrix element, main by the relevant designer of visit, site technology managerial personnel, workmen etc., listen to their suggestion to the approval degree of not having again of risk, issue a questionnaire to them simultaneously, with reference to the historical summary of similar item risk situation, its risk status of multifactorial evaluation.The risk status here is divided into " having " and " nothing " two kinds.Table 1 has been showed the part of shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project risk identification matrix.
Table 1 is based on the part of shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project risk identification matrix of ASPR-M
| Project | R11 | R12 | R21 | R22 | R31 | R32 | R41 | R42 | R51 | R52 | R6 |
| W11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| W13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two, Light Rail Project risk information in shore, Tianjin is gathered and processing module
The maximum characteristics of this module are to carry out node evaluation of risk the Light Rail Project risk WBS-RBS matrix from fuzzy comprehensive evoluation and two levels of three dimensionality risk amount mathematical model; Adopt by " CIM model ", (be Controlled Interval and MemoryModels, claim the control interval memory models again) carries out the calculating of light rail kinds of construction and total investment risk probability distribution and eigenwert again.
1) adopts fuzzy comprehensive evoluation technology risk between the shelves of node according to a preliminary estimate
In the fuzzy comprehensive evoluation process, adopt expert survey to collect the data of evaluation of risk, and carry out simultaneously with risk identification investigation.Collect the risk data of similar Light Rail Project simultaneously, gather egress is made in the back based on the WBS-RBS matrix fuzzy comprehensive evoluation.Table 2 has been showed light rail risk fuzzy matrix part, shore, Tianjin.
Light Rail Project risk fuzzy matrix part, shore, table 2 Tianjin
| Project | R11 | R12 | R21 | R22 | R31 | R32 | R41 | R42 | R51 | R52 | R6 |
| W11 | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Bigger | Less |
| W12 | Very little | Very little | Very little | Very little | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have |
| W13 | Do not have | Do not have | Very little | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have |
| W211 | Medium | Medium | Less | Bigger | Do not have | Bigger | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have |
| W212 | Less | Medium | Less | Less | Less | Very little | Medium | Medium | Very little | Do not have | Do not have |
| W213 | Very little | Very little | Very little | Very little | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have |
| W214 | Less | Less | Medium | Medium | Do not have | Do not have | Medium | Less | Less | Do not have | Do not have |
| W221 | Less | Less | Less | Less | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Do not have | Less | Do not have | Do not have |
2) adopt three dimensionality mathematical model (absolute index) quantitatively to estimate risk in the shelves of WBS-RBS matrix node
Utilize expert survey and sight investigation method to collect data, comprise the interview survey designer, construction technical staff, managerial personnel and workmen, and according to the degree of accuracy that every class personnel judge the degree of understanding and the risk of risk, compose with corresponding weights.Require respondent person that three kinds of principal risk states of various risks are judged.Carry out data processing at last and draw the loss expectation value of shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project weight subitem-risk material risk matrix (ASPR-M) node.With the substrate of W212 roadbed is example:
According to the data of roadbed substrate engineering (W212 on the matrix) design defect risk investigation table (seeing Table 3), calculate and respectively organize the risk loss expectation value that respondent person judges.Risk loss expectation in each group group is calculated according to following formula:
The risk of roadbed substrate engineering design defective risk adopts calculated with weighted average method, and the risk formula of roadbed substrate engineering is:
The design defect risk status questionnaire unit of table 3 roadbed substrate: ten thousand yuan
| Project | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Risk loss expectation | |||
| Loss level | Probability | Loss level | Probability | Loss level | Probability | ||
| The designer 0.4 | 200 | 0.2 | 230 | 0.1 | 200 | 0.3 | 123 |
| The technician 0.3 | 150 | 0.3 | 120 | 0.4 | 200 | 0.3 | 153 |
| Managerial personnel 0.2 | 100 | 0.2 | 150 | 0.3 | 100 | 0.3 | 95 |
| The workmen 0.1 | 150 | 0.1 | 100 | 0.1 | 100 | 0.2 | 45 |
Risk loss expectation value according to the four class personnel that calculated in the table 3 (is annotated: the Y1 in the table 3, Y2, Y3 is a group), ten thousand yuan of the overall risk of roadbed base engineering design defective risk loss expectation=0.4 * 123+0.3 * 153+0.2 * 95+0.1 * 45=118.6.Utilize the uncontrollable degree of expert survey roadbed engineering construction risk to investigate and analyse, by average weighted data processing (data handling procedure omission), uncontrollable degree value 0.85.
Ten thousand yuan of the risk of roadbed substrate engineering design defective risk=overall risk loss expectation * uncontrollabilities=118.6 * 0.85=100.8
3) adopt shore, CIM Model Calculation Tianjin light rail total cost expansion risk probability static distribution
At first obtain subjective estimation data about this project by expert survey, the main expert of this project investigation comprises association area expert, this Project design expert, owner's major technique managerial personnel and the personnel of unit in charge of construction, takes the questionnaire scoring method.Obtained each risk factors to response investment project investment influence by gathering, just the probability distribution of each risk factors sees Table 4.
Each risk factors risk distribution of Light Rail Project of shore, table 4 Tianjin and characteristic number word table part
By CIM response model in parallel, each risk factors of kinds of construction are superposeed to this project investment influence, obtain the combined influence of each risk factors to certain kinds of construction investment, the investment risk that obtains this kinds of construction distributes, and characteristic number (average, standard deviation).After the investment risk of calculating each kinds of construction distributes, adopt CIM series connection response model, the probability stack is carried out in the investment risk distribution of each kinds of construction, the probability risk that can obtain whole construction investment distributes, as shown in Figure 6.
Three, early warning, pre-control module
1) the AHP method generates the ordering of material risk responsive measures
Table 5 has been listed risk responsive measures detail list.Utilization AHP method provides a risk responsive measures priority ordering basic model based on prevention and control ability, risk guarantee ability and the integrated evaluation of processing cost three elements.And and risk identification, estimate that conclusion combines, and carries out priority ordering to the risk responsive measures of material risk.Because of the length restriction, only provide the responsive measures priority ordering of the design defect risk (R41) of roadbed substrate engineering (W212) here.
The suitable risk responsive measures of taking of the design defect risk (R41) of roadbed substrate engineering (W212) comprises change design X26; implement replacement scheme X28; the protective clauses X313 of the remuneration and the payment for goods payment terms is set; the computation process of the priority ordering of three risk measures sees Table 6, and its ranking results is followed successively by: protective clauses, the change design of the remuneration and the payment for goods payment terms is set and implements replacement scheme.
Shore, table 5 Tianjin Light Rail Project risk responsive measures detail list
| Risk measure classification | Risk measure project | |
| Risk is avoided X1 | All abandon bearing a certain task X11 | |
| Part abandons bearing a certain task X12 | ||
| Risk retention X2 | The little risk that the oneself holds | Formulate and implement risk prevention measure X21 |
| Formulate the risk measure X22 that sues and labours | ||
| Not foresighted risk | Set up the X23 of Risk-warning system | |
| Take risk emergency measure X24 | ||
| Take risk remedial measures X25 | ||
| The risk that can not shift or avoid | Change design X26 | |
| Implement the control measure X27 of little risk | ||
| Implement replacement scheme X28 | ||
| Risk transfer X3 | The protective clauses X31 of contract is set | Construction technical standard clause X311 is set |
| Construction quality clause X312 | ||
| Remuneration and payment for goods settlement term X313 | ||
| Engineering guarantee X32 | Performance bond X321 | |
| Property mortgage X322 | ||
| Engineering insurance X33 | ||
The relative matrix of design defect risk (R41) responsive measures of table 6 roadbed substrate engineering (W212)
| Measure | X26 | X28 | | Weight |
| X26 | ||||
| 1 | 3 | 1/5 | 0.240 | |
| |
1/3 | 1 | 1/6 | 0.109 |
| X313 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.651 |
2) risk management handbook
After various risk response modes having been done canonical parse and having been provided the priority ordering of every responsive measures at the various risk cases of risk carrier, the general treatment measures of Light Rail Project risk have found, in the dynamic risk management process of project, can find the respective handling measure of risk with reference to the risk management handbook, implement the dynamic risk management.Be example still, see Table 7 with the subgrade engineering.
Table 7 risk management handbook part
| Job title | Risk attributes | The Risk-warning system | The decision in the face of risk system | The risk prevention system | The risk measure of suing and labouring | |
| The one-level operation | The secondary operation | |||||
| The W2 civil engineering | The |
1. roadbed settlement 2. workman's injures and deaths 3. construction of bridge and culvert difficulty and dangerous 4. roadbeds are connected with construction speeds such as track engineering, electromechanical engineerings with the connectivity problem 5. of |
1. carry out site test, the job design of check roadbed; 2. construction headquarters selects and appoints the construction Supervision personnel to supervise site operation, finds the improper phenomenon of working-yard, in time reports to relevant departments; 3. actual conditions and the design document with site operation contrasts, so that find the deviation of design and practice of construction situation; 4. grasp the construction speed relation of subgrade engineering with |
1. according to the risk status of the subgrade construction of early warning system reflection, calculated risk size and may command and transferable degree, risk of selection disposal options; 2. take all factors into consideration the cost and the working-yard situation of roadbed and line bridge, when difficulty of construction is very big, can waits by the change design and avoid risk; 3. higher when the cost of avoiding and control risk, can select the subgrade engineering risk transfer. | 1. clear and definite on-the-spot management personnel's responsibility and authority are found and the accident of controlling risk in its scope of offical duty, the construction safety of supervision construction quality and field worker; 2. invite the personnel of designing unit to participate in field program and instruct, in time pinpoint the problems and correct; 3. construction headquarters sends the special messenger to be responsible for working-yard and coordinations such as designing unit, owner and contractor, and the working-yard makes progress, and to assign on-the-spot information channel unimpeded for information conveyed and upper strata. | 1. if subgrade settlement takes place, should in time remedy construction, when problem is very serious, ask designing unit or expert to assist to formulate and enforcing remedies; 2. when if there are deviation in practice of construction and design, according to actual conditions, the change design is constructed again or remedy construction on existing construction basis; 3. when being on the hazard as if engineering site personal securities such as bridges and culverts, should improve construction technology, strengthen construction protection, change design in case of necessity the workman. |
Below in conjunction with Fig. 7 the flow process based on the cost feedforward control of risk Metrics in the Light Rail Project project of shore, Tianjin is described,, repeat no more here because the control flow of the major loop ICS of cost Control as hereinbefore.
In the present embodiment, the flow process based on the cost feedforward control of risk Metrics is as follows:
1) in Light Rail Project cost feedforward control loop, shore, Tianjin based on risk Metrics, the structuring of construction costs risk is the basis of all working, under the prerequisite that obtains data such as project scale, scope of project, adopt the distinctive WBS technology of project management that coding is decomposed in engineer operation, the WBS work that obtains shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project is made up of each subitem is set.The check point of this link is the stronger job analysis summary sheet of simplicity.
2) utilize expert survey (DELPHE), scenario analysis to obtain the raw data of the relative Link Importance of each subitem when the WBS process is carried out: i.e. the relative significance level that compares in twos of each subitem, the check point of this link is a work relative Link Importance questionnaire.
3) utilization analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is handled the relative Link Importance matrix, and the check point of this link is the weight ordering of each subitem of WBS structure.
4) utilize RBS and classification to launch classification of risks, decompose coding at the weight subitem of WBS structure, set up shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project risk tree, generate its weight subitem-risk Metrics (ASPR-M) and as this link check point.
5) utilizing expert survey to launch risk identification at the ASPR-M node, is this link check point with the identification questionnaire, based on the risk identification matrix of ASPR-M.
6) utilizing the estimation at risk between ASPR-M node expansion shelves of expert survey and comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method, is check point with risk fuzzy evaluation questionnaire and risk fuzzy matrix.
7) utilizing three dimensionality risk quantity algorithm to launch grade calculating and the ordering of interior risk at the ASPR-M node, is check point with risk status questionnaire and shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project material risk matrix.
8) utilizing the connection in series-parallel stack of CIM control interval memory models to generate light rail project kinds of construction and total investment risk distribution, is check point with shore, Tianjin construction costs probability distribution and characteristic parameter.
9) utilize expert survey and AHP method to finish the corresponding early warning of risk, pre-control, emergency measure ordering, this link is a check point with shore, Tianjin Light Rail Project investment risk responsive measures detail list, responsive measures matrix, risk management handbook.
Claims (7)
1. the multiplex control system of a Light Rail Project cost, it is characterized in that: described multiplex control system is made up of cost Control major loop (ICS) and feed-forward loop (IRCS).
2. multiplex control system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: described cost Control loop ICS is sequential control and tandem definite value feedback control system.
3. multiplex control system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: described feed-forward loop IRCS by carry out that risk is decomposed and weight type encoding function and export the weight subitem-risk Metrics (ASPR-M) of Light Rail Project the risk structure module, the node on the ASPR-M is carried out that investigation, identification and adjudicatory function and output contain the interface function of the information acquisition processing module of Light Rail Project material risk matrix (ARM) in risk source and execution and cost Control major loop and is that the early warning control module of interface unit is formed with the risk management handbook.
4. multiplex control system according to claim 3 is characterized in that: described risk structure module adopts the WBS-RBS risk that comprises work/risk decomposition texture (WBS-RBS), analytical hierarchy process (AHP), expert survey and risk factors classification to decompose kit.
5. multiplex control system according to claim 3 is characterized in that: described information acquisition processing module adopts the risk information handling implement bag that comprises fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, risk three dimensionality computation model and control memory models (CIM).
6. multiplex control system according to claim 3 is characterized in that described early warning control module adopts the kit of being made up of AHP method, expert survey, scenario analysis and risk management handbook masterplate.
7. according to the control method of each described multiplex control system in the claim 1～6, it is characterized in that comprising:
1) adopting the risk control principle is feedforward control program design foundation with risk identification, estimation, evaluation, disposal.
2) enter the risk structure module, adopt the WBS-RBS method to decompose coding, set up the weight subitem-risk Metrics (ASPR-M) of Light Rail Project.
3) enter the information acquisition processing module, adopt risk information handling implement bag, finish investigation, identification and adjudicatory function that ASPR-M goes up the node risk, output contains the Light Rail Project material risk matrix (ARM) in risk source.
4) enter early warning pre-control module, adopt early warning pre-control kit, generate the ordering of risk responsive measures, finish interface with Light Rail Project cost Control major loop ICS, realize the embedded feed forward function of IRCS with risk management handbook form.
5) regulate by the ICS major loop because the handling cost of endogenous variable time T, quality Q and health, safety, environmental protection (HSE) changes caused investment variation, contract cost by buying, payment/settlement, change/subroutines such as claim control Light Rail Project, by controlling risk property of IRCS feed-forward loop cost, finish the compound control of Light Rail Project cost.
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CNA2007100584205A CN101109929A (en) | 2007-07-27 | 2007-07-27 | Compound control system for building cost of light rail projects and control method thereof |
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CNA2007100584205A CN101109929A (en) | 2007-07-27 | 2007-07-27 | Compound control system for building cost of light rail projects and control method thereof |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106685921A (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2017-05-17 | 中国人民解放军信息工程大学 | Network equipment risk assessment method |
| CN103971288B (en) * | 2014-05-16 | 2018-03-02 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | A kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning |
| CN112785257A (en) * | 2021-01-15 | 2021-05-11 | 广州市新誉工程咨询有限公司 | Engineering cost operation evaluation method and system based on BIM technology |
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2007
- 2007-07-27 CN CNA2007100584205A patent/CN101109929A/en active Pending
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103971288B (en) * | 2014-05-16 | 2018-03-02 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | A kind of Construction of Steel Structure methods of risk assessment based on accident case reasoning |
| CN106685921A (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2017-05-17 | 中国人民解放军信息工程大学 | Network equipment risk assessment method |
| CN106685921B (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2019-06-21 | 中国人民解放军信息工程大学 | Network equipment methods of risk assessment |
| CN112785257A (en) * | 2021-01-15 | 2021-05-11 | 广州市新誉工程咨询有限公司 | Engineering cost operation evaluation method and system based on BIM technology |
| CN112785257B (en) * | 2021-01-15 | 2023-09-26 | 广州市新誉工程咨询有限公司 | Construction cost operation evaluation method and system based on BIM technology |
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