CN103229737B - The forecast of the extensive time of origin of Pseudosciaena crocea bacteriosis - Google Patents
The forecast of the extensive time of origin of Pseudosciaena crocea bacteriosis Download PDFInfo
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- CN103229737B CN103229737B CN201310151245.XA CN201310151245A CN103229737B CN 103229737 B CN103229737 B CN 103229737B CN 201310151245 A CN201310151245 A CN 201310151245A CN 103229737 B CN103229737 B CN 103229737B
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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Abstract
The invention discloses the forecast of the extensive time of origin of Pseudosciaena crocea bacteriosis, to forecast that several years ago the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis, for radix, according to occurrence regularity, sets up forecast model, then according to forecast model, prediction next period disease time.The forecasting technique that the extensive bacteriosis of the large yellow Crocker formed occurs, can solve forecast in advance, in advance proactive problem that the extensive bacteriosis of large yellow Crocker occurs.Required data information is few, and simple to operate, only needs the record obtaining more than 4 times months of falling ill, through the disease time of simple computation just measurable next period.The present invention creates the forecasting technique of the extensive bacteriosis of cultured large yellow croaker first, because it is the forecasting procedure set up according to the occurrence regularity of large yellow Crocker bacteriosis, therefore applied widely, can be used for the various breeding way such as pond, net cage.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the Disease epizootic technology of Pseudosciaena crocea, be specifically related to the forecast of the extensive time of origin of Pseudosciaena crocea bacteriosis.
Background technology
Large yellow Crocker is important mariculture kind, its kinds of Diseases are many, the incidence of disease is high, wherein bacteriosis is topmost disease, the lethality that bacteriosis causes oneself reach large yellow Crocker cultivation during general mortality rate more than 40%, be therefore endanger one of maximum disease in large yellow Crocker breeding production.Bacteriosis onset speed is fast, and scope is wide, often causes fulminant popular, and the bacterial disease of Zhoushan almost annual all once large model occurs according to investigations, and morbidity water body is many more than 20%.Bacteriosis, once break out, just can only rely on various antibacterial drug therapy, but falls ill scope extensively due to it, and spread speed is fast, and the pharmacotherapy after therefore finding disease often produces little effect.For preventing the extensive generation of large yellow Crocker bacteriosis, also the method for not timing medication is often taked in breeding process, carry out regular medication, the blindness of this medication, randomness, not only can not receive control efficiency, but also cause the food-safety problems such as ecological environment problem and aquatic products medicament residue such as pathogenic bacteria resistance to drugs increase, breeding environment deterioration.If predict the generation of large yellow Crocker bacteriosis in advance, just can take preventive measures in good time, exactly, prevent the generation of disease, the adverse consequences avoiding blindly medication to bring, reduces the economic loss brought by disease.Although China has patent and a kind of pathogenetic method for early warning of disease propagating large yellow Crocker artificially being 200710068792.6, it is the degree according to the morbidity of transparency, water temperature and average wind predictive disease, because large yellow Crocker kinds of Diseases are many, this technology cannot determine that therefore preventive measure difficulty is larger to taking targetedly by the kind of the disease occurred.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem to be solved by this invention is to provide at Pseudosciaena crocea, can predict the forecasting technique of the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis in advance, reaches prevention in time before occurring, avoids bacteriosis to occur on a large scale.
The present invention solves the problems of the technologies described above adopted technical scheme: the forecast of the extensive time of origin of Pseudosciaena crocea bacteriosis, and its step is as follows:
A, to large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area, the time that the extensive bacteriosis of continuous observation n time occurs, n > 3, it is the initial moon to investigate the first month of starting year, start at from the initial moon, record the moon number of each extensive bacteriosis generation, be designated as x successively
1, x
2..., x
n;
B, with x
1, x
2..., x
nfor radix, at y
1=x
1under, a rear numerical value obtains y with number is cumulative successively above
1, y
2..., y
n;
C, with y
1, y
2..., y
nfor radix, divided by 2 after being added by adjacent for front and back two numbers, obtain z
2, z
3, z
n;
D, by x
2..., x
nmean value be designated as
z
2, z
3..., z
nmean value
c=x
2z
2+ x
3z
3+ ... + x
nz
n, with
obtain a and b; A and b reacts the correlation between the changing trend of disease time and disease time;
E, to obtain the prediction of each the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis after n-th time with following formula:
, k=0,1,2 ..., obtain starting at from the initial moon, the moon number that (n+k+1) secondary extensive bacteriosis occurs.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the advantages that the forecast of the extensive time of origin of Pseudosciaena crocea bacteriosis, to forecast that several years ago the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis is for radix, according to occurrence regularity, set up forecast model, then according to forecast model, prediction next period disease time.The forecasting technique that the extensive bacteriosis of the large yellow Crocker formed occurs, can solve forecast in advance, in advance proactive problem that the extensive bacteriosis of large yellow Crocker occurs.Required data information is few, and simple to operate, only needs the record obtaining more than 4 times months of falling ill, through the disease time of simple computation just measurable next period.The present invention creates the forecasting technique of the extensive bacteriosis of cultured large yellow croaker first, because it is the forecasting procedure set up according to the occurrence regularity of large yellow Crocker bacteriosis, therefore applied widely, can be used for the various breeding way such as pond, net cage.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail.
Embodiment
Investigation large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area, one, Zhoushan, between 2001-2006, find that there is 6 extensive bacteriosises to occur, 6 times disease time is followed successively by September calendar year 2001, in September, 2002, in August, 2003,2004 10, in July, 2005,2006 8, according to method of the present invention, the Predicting Technique setting up disease time is as follows:
1, according to investigation result, be the initial moon with January calendar year 2001, obtain each the pathogenetic time x of disease
1, x
2..., x
6be 9,21,32,46,55,68;
2, with y
1=x
1=9,9,21,32,46,55, under 68 radixes, a rear number obtains y with the numerical value before it is cumulative successively
1, y
2..., y
6be 9,30,62,108,163,231;
3, by above y
1, y
2..., y
6calculate the mean value of adjacent two elements, obtain z
2, z
3, z
6be 19.5,46,85,135.5,197;
4 and then can x be obtained
2..., x
6mean value
z
2, z
3..., z
6mean value
calculate
obtain z
p=66890.5, calculate c=x
2z
2+ x
3z
3+ ... + x
6z
6obtain c=26640, from
calculate a=-0.2568, calculate
obtain b=19.5977.
5, basis
7th time, this large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area measurable extensive time of origin of (K=0) bacteriosis is 90.2nd month that rises January calendar year 2001, the time of namely again falling ill after morbidity in August, 2006 is at the beginning of 67 months the end of month in 2008, according to this prediction, within 2007, large-scale bacteriosis can not be there is, result confirms really not occur for 2007, and really there occurs large-scale bacteriosis at the beginning of 2008 7 months.Thereafter predicting that namely calendar year 2001 plays the 8th the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis is next time 116.61st month that rises January calendar year 2001, be 2010 by the end of August at the beginning of 9 months, therefore from August, 2010, to the large yellow Crocker of test region cage culture, strengthen monitoring, and carried out the adjustment of chemoprophylaxis and cultivation density, result inhibits this district's bacteriosis to occur on a large scale.And the region do not taken preventive measures there occurs disease at the beginning of 2010 9 months.
If K=0 predicts successfully, during K=1 prediction, morbidity moon number during K=0 can be obtained each the pathogenetic time use of disease as investigation, more accurate to K=1 prediction, the like.
The present invention is to multiple sea areas of Pseudosciaena crocea such as Zhoushan Islands, Ningbo Xiangshan Bay, Sanmen Wan, Ningde, continuous more than the 3 times extensive bacteriosis time of origins of system investigation, at K=0, under K=1 under checking, repeatedly studies, draws y
1, y
2..., y
6x
1, x
2..., x
6be as the criterion for cumulative successively under radix, z
2, z
3, z
6at y
1, y
2..., y
6for the mean value of adjacent two elements under radix is as the criterion, then create formula
(changing trend of disease time),
(correlation between disease time), and the formula in prediction morbidity month:
, wherein X mean value, Z mean value, Z
pwith C use and the mode that draws also is creationary, e is constant.Concrete checking and embodiment basic simlarity, the X basic data of each exactly morbidity is distinguished to some extent, K=0, or distinguishes to some extent in the month verified under K=1, but be all confirmed in the multiple sea areas of Pseudosciaena crocea such as Zhoushan Islands, Ningbo Xiangshan Bay, Sanmen Wan, Ningde, do not enumerate at this.
Claims (1)
1. the forecast of the extensive time of origin of Pseudosciaena crocea bacteriosis, is characterized in that step is as follows:
A, to large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area, the time that the extensive bacteriosis of continuous observation n time occurs, n > 3, it is the initial moon to investigate the first month of starting year, start at from the initial moon, record the moon number of each extensive bacteriosis generation, be designated as x successively
1, x
2..., x
n;
B, with x
1, x
2..., x
nfor radix, at y
1=x
1under, a rear numerical value obtains y with number is cumulative successively above
1, y
2..., y
n;
C, with y
1, y
2..., y
nfor radix, divided by 2 after being added by adjacent for front and back two numbers, obtain z
2, z
3, z
n;
D, by x
2..., x
nmean value be designated as
z
2, z
3, z
nmean value
c=x
2z
2+ x
3z
3+ ... + x
nz
n, with
obtain a and b; A and b reacts the correlation between the changing trend of disease time and disease time;
E, to obtain the prediction of each the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis after n-th time with following formula:
, k=0,1,2 ..., obtain starting at from the initial moon, the moon number that (n+k+1) secondary extensive bacteriosis occurs.
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| CN108244003B (en) * | 2018-01-18 | 2019-09-13 | 中国农业大学 | A kind of aquatic products plant disease epidemic trend prediction and methods of exhibiting and system |
| CN117084200B (en) * | 2023-08-22 | 2024-01-19 | 盐城工业职业技术学院 | Aquaculture dosing control system applying big data analysis |
Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP1731159A1 (en) * | 2004-03-24 | 2006-12-13 | Japan Science and Technology Agency | Method of preventing nodavirus infection and therapeutic method |
| CN101081011A (en) * | 2007-05-23 | 2007-12-05 | 宁波大学 | Early warning method of the disease of artificial breeding type large yellow croaker |
| CN102550454A (en) * | 2012-01-13 | 2012-07-11 | 厦门大学 | Method for predicting cryptocaryoniosis in Larimichthys crocea |
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2013
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Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP1731159A1 (en) * | 2004-03-24 | 2006-12-13 | Japan Science and Technology Agency | Method of preventing nodavirus infection and therapeutic method |
| CN101081011A (en) * | 2007-05-23 | 2007-12-05 | 宁波大学 | Early warning method of the disease of artificial breeding type large yellow croaker |
| CN102550454A (en) * | 2012-01-13 | 2012-07-11 | 厦门大学 | Method for predicting cryptocaryoniosis in Larimichthys crocea |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| 网箱养殖大黄鱼(Pseudosciaena crocea)疾病与环境因子的关系;倪海儿 等;《海洋与湖沼》;20090131;第40卷(第1期);第72-77页 * |
| 网箱养殖大黄鱼溃疡病的预报模型;倪海儿 等;《水产学报》;20090331;第33卷(第2期);第334-341页 * |
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