CN103229737A - Method for forecasting large-scale bacteriosis occurrence time of cage-cultured pseudosciaena crocea - Google Patents
Method for forecasting large-scale bacteriosis occurrence time of cage-cultured pseudosciaena crocea Download PDFInfo
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- CN103229737A CN103229737A CN201310151245XA CN201310151245A CN103229737A CN 103229737 A CN103229737 A CN 103229737A CN 201310151245X A CN201310151245X A CN 201310151245XA CN 201310151245 A CN201310151245 A CN 201310151245A CN 103229737 A CN103229737 A CN 103229737A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for forecasting large-scale bacteriosis occurrence time of cage-cultured pseudosciaena crocea. The method includes: building a forecasting model according to the occurrence regularity and with the large-scale bacteriosis occurrence time in the preceding years as the basis, and then forecasting the next-period occurrence time according to the forecasting model. By means of the method, the forecasting technology of the large-scale bacteriosis occurrence time of the pseudosciaena crocea can be formed, and in-advance forecasting and prevention of the large-scale bacteriosis occurrence of the pseudosciaena crocea can be achieved. Less data resources are required, the operation is easy, and the next-period occurrence time can be forecasted through simple calculation with the records of more than four occurrence months. The forecasting technology of the large-scale bacteriosis occurrence time of the pseudosciaena crocea is created for the first time, the method is provided according to the occurrence regularity of the bacteriosis of the pseudosciaena crocea, is wide in application range, and can be used in various culturing methods including pond culturing and case culturing.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the disease control technology of cage culture large yellow Crocker, be specifically related to the forecast of the extensive time of origin of cage culture large yellow Crocker bacteriosis.
Background technology
Large yellow Crocker is important mariculture kind, its kinds of Diseases are many, the incidence of disease is high, wherein bacteriosis is topmost disease, the lethality that bacteriosis causes oneself reach large yellow Crocker and culture during more than 40% of general mortality rate, therefore be one of maximum disease of harm in the large yellow Crocker breeding production.The bacteriosis onset speed is fast, and scope is wide, often causes fulminant popular, the almost annual all once bacterial disease of big model generations of Zhoushan city according to investigations, and the morbidity water body is many more than 20%.In a single day bacteriosis breaks out, and just can only rely on various antibacterial drug therapies, but because its morbidity scope is wide, and spread speed is fast, therefore finds that the pharmacotherapy after the disease often produces little effect.For preventing the extensive generation of large yellow Crocker bacteriosis, in breeding process, also often take the method for not timing medication, carry out regular medication, the blindness of this medication, randomness, not only can not receive control efficiency, but also cause food-safety problems such as ecological environment problems such as the increase of pathogen drug resistance, breeding environment deterioration and aquatic products medicament residue.If can predict the generation of large yellow Crocker bacteriosis in advance, just can be in good time, take preventive measures exactly, the generation that wards off disease, the adverse consequences of avoiding blindly medication to bring reduces the economic loss of being brought by disease.Though the existing patent of China and a kind of method for early warning of propagating the disease generation of large yellow Crocker artificially that is 200710068792.6, it is the degree according to transparency, water temperature and average wind-force prediction disease incidence, because the large yellow Crocker kinds of Diseases are many, this technology can't be determined the kind of the disease that will take place, and therefore the preventive measure difficulty is bigger targetedly to taking.
Summary of the invention
Technical problem to be solved by this invention provides the cage culture large yellow Crocker, can predict the forecasting technique of the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis in advance, reaches preceding prevention in time takes place, and avoids bacteriosis to take place on a large scale.
The present invention solves the problems of the technologies described above the technical scheme that adopts: the forecast of the extensive time of origin of cage culture large yellow Crocker bacteriosis, and its step is as follows:
A, to large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area, the time that the extensive bacteriosis of continuous observation n time takes place, n＞3, with first month of investigation starting year be initial month, started at from initial month, record month number of the extensive bacteriosis generation of each time, be designated as x successively
1, x
2..., x
n
B, with x
1, x
2..., x
nBe radix, at y
1=x
1Down, back one numerical value and front number add up successively and obtain y
1, y
2..., y
n
C, with y
1, y
2..., y
nBe radix, with front and back adjacent two the number additions after divided by 2, obtain z
2, z
3, z
n
D, with x
2..., x
nMean value be designated as
z
2, z
3..., z
nMean value
C=x
2z
2+ x
3z
3+ ... + x
nz
n, with
Obtain a and b; The variation situation of a and b reaction disease time and the correlation between the disease time;
E, obtain the prediction of the extensive time of origin of each time bacteriosis after the n time with following formula:
, k=0,1,2 ..., obtain starting at from initial month the moon number that (n+k+1) inferior extensive bacteriosis takes place.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the advantages that the forecast of the extensive time of origin of cage culture large yellow Crocker bacteriosis, to forecast that several years ago the extensive time of origin of bacteriosis is radix, according to occurrence regularity, set up forecast model, according to forecast model, predict the next period disease time then.The forecasting technique that the extensive bacteriosis of the large yellow Crocker that forms takes place can solve forecast in advance that the extensive bacteriosis of large yellow Crocker takes place, proactive problem in advance.Required data information is few, and simple to operate, and the record that obtains morbidity month more than 4 times only need be arranged, through the just disease time of measurable next period of simple computation.The present invention has created the forecasting technique of the extensive bacteriosis of cultured large yellow croaker first, and is therefore applied widely because it is the forecasting procedure of setting up according to the occurrence regularity of large yellow Crocker bacteriosis, can be used for various breeding way such as pond, net cage.
Embodiment
Describe in further detail below in conjunction with the present invention of embodiment.
Embodiment
Investigation large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area, Zhoushan city, between 2001-2006, discovery has 6 extensive bacteriosises to take place, and 6 times disease time is followed successively by September calendar year 2001, in September, 2002, in August, 2003, in July, 10,2005 in 2004,2006 8, the method according to this invention, the Predicting Technique of setting up disease time is as follows:
1, according to investigation result, to be January calendar year 2001 initial month, obtains the time x that each time disease takes place
1, x
2..., x
6Be 9,21,32,46,55,68;
2, with y
1=x
1=9,9,21, under 32,46,55,68 radixes, the numerical value of back one number and its front adds up successively and obtains y
1, y
2..., y
6Be 9,30,62,108,163,231;
3, with above y
1, y
2..., y
6Calculate the mean value of adjacent two elements, obtain z
2, z
3, z
6Be 19.5,46,85,135.5,197;
4 and then can get x
2..., x
6Mean value
z
2, z
3..., z
6Mean value
Calculate
Obtain z
p=66890.5, calculate c=x
2z
2+ x
3z
3+ ... + x
6z
6Obtain c=26640, from
Calculate a=-0.2568, calculate
Obtain b=19.5977.
5, basis
The 7th the extensive time of origin of (K=0) bacteriosis in measurable this large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area is 90.2nd month of rising January calendar year 2001, at the beginning of the time of morbidity is 67 months the end of month in 2008 again after namely in August, 2006 morbidity, according to this prediction, 2007 large-scale bacteriosis can not take place, the result confirms generation really in 2007, and at the beginning of 2008 7 months large-scale bacteriosis has taken place really.Thereafter prediction is to play the 8th extensive time of origin of bacteriosis calendar year 2001 to be 116.61st month of rising January calendar year 2001 next time, at the beginning of being 2010 9 months by the end of August, therefore since in August, 2010, large yellow Crocker to test region cage culture, strengthened monitoring, and having carried out the adjustment of chemoprophylaxis and cultivation density, the result has suppressed this district's bacteriosis and has taken place on a large scale.And disease has taken place in the zone that does not take preventive measures at the beginning of 2010 9 months.
After if K=0 predict successfully, during the K=1 prediction, the morbidity moon number in the time of can be with K=0 obtains the time use of each time disease generation as investigation, and it is more accurate that K=1 is predicted, and the like.
The present invention is to a plurality of sea areas of cage culture large yellow Crocker such as Zhoushan Islands, Ningbo Xiangshan Bay, Sanmen Wan, Ningde, the continuous extensive bacteriosis time of origin more than 3 times of system investigation, at K=0, under the K=1 checking down, research draws y repeatedly
1, y
2..., y
6Be x
1, x
2..., x
6Be as the criterion z for adding up successively under the radix
2, z
3, z
6Be at y
1, y
2..., y
6For the mean value of adjacent two elements under the radix is as the criterion, created formula then
(the variation situation of disease time),
The formula in (correlation between the disease time) and prediction morbidity month:
, wherein X mean value, Z mean value, Z
PWith C use and the mode that draws also is creationary, e is constant.Concrete checking is similar substantially to embodiment, the X basic data that is exactly each time morbidity is distinguished to some extent, K=0, and perhaps the month of verifying under the K=1 is distinguished to some extent, but all be confirmed in a plurality of sea areas of cage culture large yellow Crocker such as Zhoushan Islands, Ningbo Xiangshan Bay, Sanmen Wan, Ningde, do not enumerate one by one at this.
Claims (1)
1. the forecast of the extensive time of origin of cage culture large yellow Crocker bacteriosis is characterized in that step is as follows:
A, to large yellow Crocker cage culture sea area, the time that the extensive bacteriosis of continuous observation n time takes place, n＞3, with first month of investigation starting year be initial month, started at from initial month, record month number of the extensive bacteriosis generation of each time, be designated as x successively
1, x
2..., x
n
B, with x
1, x
2..., x
nBe radix, at y
1=x
1Down, back one numerical value and front number add up successively and obtain y
1, y
2..., y
n
C, with y
1, y
2..., y
nBe radix, with front and back adjacent two the number additions after divided by 2, obtain z
2, z
3, z
n
D, with x
2..., x
nMean value be designated as
z
2, z
3, z
nMean value
C=x
2z
2+ x
3z
3+ ... + x
nz
n, with
Obtain a and b; The variation situation of a and b reaction disease time and the correlation between the disease time;
E, obtain the prediction of the extensive time of origin of each time bacteriosis after the n time with following formula:
, k=0,1,2 ..., obtain starting at from initial month the moon number that (n+k+1) inferior extensive bacteriosis takes place.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108244003A (en) * | 2018-01-18 | 2018-07-06 | 中国农业大学 | A kind of aquatic products plant disease epidemic trend prediction and methods of exhibiting and system |
| CN117084200A (en) * | 2023-08-22 | 2023-11-21 | 盐城工业职业技术学院 | Aquaculture dosing control system applying big data analysis |
Citations (3)
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP1731159A1 (en) * | 2004-03-24 | 2006-12-13 | Japan Science and Technology Agency | Method of preventing nodavirus infection and therapeutic method |
| CN101081011A (en) * | 2007-05-23 | 2007-12-05 | 宁波大学 | Early warning method of the disease of artificial breeding type large yellow croaker |
| CN102550454A (en) * | 2012-01-13 | 2012-07-11 | 厦门大学 | Method for predicting cryptocaryoniosis in Larimichthys crocea |
-
2013
- 2013-04-26 CN CN201310151245.XA patent/CN103229737B/en not_active Expired - Fee Related
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EP1731159A1 (en) * | 2004-03-24 | 2006-12-13 | Japan Science and Technology Agency | Method of preventing nodavirus infection and therapeutic method |
| CN101081011A (en) * | 2007-05-23 | 2007-12-05 | 宁波大学 | Early warning method of the disease of artificial breeding type large yellow croaker |
| CN102550454A (en) * | 2012-01-13 | 2012-07-11 | 厦门大学 | Method for predicting cryptocaryoniosis in Larimichthys crocea |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| 倪海儿 等: "网箱养殖大黄鱼(Pseudosciaena crocea)疾病与环境因子的关系", 《海洋与湖沼》 * |
| 倪海儿 等: "网箱养殖大黄鱼溃疡病的预报模型", 《水产学报》 * |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108244003A (en) * | 2018-01-18 | 2018-07-06 | 中国农业大学 | A kind of aquatic products plant disease epidemic trend prediction and methods of exhibiting and system |
| CN108244003B (en) * | 2018-01-18 | 2019-09-13 | 中国农业大学 | A kind of aquatic products plant disease epidemic trend prediction and methods of exhibiting and system |
| CN117084200A (en) * | 2023-08-22 | 2023-11-21 | 盐城工业职业技术学院 | Aquaculture dosing control system applying big data analysis |
| CN117084200B (en) * | 2023-08-22 | 2024-01-19 | 盐城工业职业技术学院 | Aquaculture dosing control system applying big data analysis |
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