CN102545217A - Planning method of power grid power supply reliability based on logic frame - Google Patents
Planning method of power grid power supply reliability based on logic frame Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a planning method of power grid power supply reliability based on a logic frame, which comprises the following steps: setting initial value, calculating reliability index of an initial scheme, conducting statistics on integral investment and giving a plan scheme if the index achieves the set initial value, sequentially determining whether the management parameter has improvement space or not, whether the number of users on each section is larger than 8 or not, whether feeder load factor is larger than 40% or not, whether the ring networking rate is larger than 100% or not, whether the proportion of failure power failure in the overall users reaches 50% or not, whether users without protection exists or not, whether a planning target is smaller than 2 hours or not and whether equipment fault rate is higher than national average value that the target corresponds to or not if the reliability index of the initial scheme does no reach the set initial value, determining again whether the planning target is smaller than 2 hours or not and finally giving the plan scheme. The planning method has the advantages of filling the blank of power distribution reliability of the national power grid, being strict in logic, complete in system and standardized and being suitable for power supply enterprises.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of mains supply reliability program method of logic-based framework.
Background technology
Current society, electricity has become the necessity of people's life just as empty G&W.Along with improving constantly of expanding economy and people's living standard, the society to the mains supply reliability require increasingly high.Therefore, power supply enterprise is always improving the most important thing of electric network reliability level as work, and with the tap of reliability program as reliability engineering and management work.
Power supply reliability runs through the main business department of power supply enterprise, in close relations with electrical network.In establishment power supply reliability when planning, need to coordinate the different different schemes of target, different departments, formulation, and these schemes are carried out than choosing and optimum organization, thereby confirm to reach the optimal policy and the technical scheme of target.At present, also do not have cover reliability program method perfect, that logic is rigorous to support the establishment of electric network reliability planning, comprise proposition, reliability measure strategy and the reliability scheme comparison etc. of reliability objectives.
Summary of the invention
The mains supply reliability program method that the purpose of this invention is to provide a kind of logic-based framework has solved the problems referred to above that present prior art exists.
The objective of the invention is to realize through following technical scheme:
A kind of mains supply reliability program method of logic-based framework may further comprise the steps:
Step 1: set initial value, calculate the reliability index of initial scheme, if reach the first knowledge value of setting, the then whole investment of statistics, whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans; If whole investment exceeds investment budgey, then revise reliability objectives, and the whole investment of statistics provides plans again to the investment budgey of loading again;
Reliability objectives in the said step 1 is calculated and may further comprise the steps:
Step 1.1: obtain power distribution network electrical network parameter, operational factor, device parameter and management parameters to be assessed;
Step 1.2:, confirm probability of malfunction, arrange stoppage in transit probability, malfunction elimination time and repair time in advance according to each parameter that step 1.1 is obtained;
Step 1.3: amount is zero when putting total power failure; When calculating cable system respectively and can change and can not change under the confession situation each element fault and have a power failure influence total during the amount and the influence of arranging in advance to have a power failure total amount, overhead system can change and supply and amount when amount and arranging in advance has a power failure influence total can not change each element fault under the confession situation and have a power failure influence total the time, the most always ask for the whole network reliability index.
Electrical network parameter comprises total number of users N, main feeder quantity X in the said step 1.1
Always, the backbone total length L
Ml, the branch line total length L
Bl, the backbone switch counts n, the branch line switch is counted m, looped network rate H and automation coverage rate K
a
Operational factor comprises that total load P, load growth rate Δ P, circuit average load rate F, duplicate supply user lead D, band protection number of users N
p, the automation time T
AutWith the prepared auto restart time T
Bzt
Device parameter comprises line failure rate f
l, switch fault rate f
k, switching station failure rate f
k, user's failure rate f
t, cable rate C and insulating rate I; And
Management parameters comprises that fault outage on average investigates time T
Che, fault outage T mean time to repair
Rep, in advance arrange the average interruption duration T that has a power failure
PreWith preparatory arrangement power failure probability f
Pre
Step 2: if calculate the initial value that the reliability index of initial scheme does not reach setting; Confirm then whether management parameters has room for promotion; If room for promotion is arranged, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 3: if the management parameters in the step 2 does not have room for promotion; Confirm then whether every section amount surpasses 8 families; If every section amount surpasses 8 families, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 4: if every section amount less than 8 families in the step 3; Confirm that then whether the feeder line load factor is greater than 40%; If the feeder line load factor is greater than 40%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 5: if in the step 4 if the feeder line load factor be not more than 40%; Confirm that then whether the looped network rate is less than 100%; If the looped network rate is less than 100%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 6: if the looped network rate in the step 5 is not less than 100%; Confirm that then fault outage accounts for total amount and whether reaches 50%; If fault outage accounts for total amount and reaches 50%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 7: do not reach 50% if the fault outage in the step 6 accounts for total amount; Then determine whether to exist the user of being unkitted protection; If there is the user be unkitted protection, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 8: if do not have a user of being unkitted protection in the step 7; Confirm that then whether the object of planning is less than 2 hours; If the object of planning is less than two hours, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 9: if the object of planning in the step 8 is not less than 2 hours; Confirm then whether equipment failure rate is higher than the corresponding national average value of target; If equipment failure rate is higher than the corresponding national average value of target, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 10: if the equipment failure rate in the step 9 is not higher than the corresponding national average value of target; Confirm once more that then whether the object of planning is less than 2 hours; If the object of planning is less than two hours, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans; Also do not reach the initial value of setting after reducing interruption duration per family and increasing cost, then revise reliability objectives and again the whole investment of statistics provide plans again to the investment budgey of loading.
In the said step 2-step 9, also do not reach the initial value of setting after reducing interruption duration per family and increasing cost, the corresponding next step of then packing into.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is: remedied the blank of domestic mains supply reliability program method, logic is rigorous, system is complete, normalized electric network reliability planing method for power supply enterprise provides.
Description of drawings
According to accompanying drawing the present invention is done further explain below.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the mains supply reliability program method of the described a kind of logic-based framework of the embodiment of the invention;
Fig. 2 is the estimation flow figure of reliability index in the mains supply reliability program method of the described a kind of logic-based framework of the embodiment of the invention.
Embodiment
Shown in Fig. 1-2, the mains supply reliability program method of the described a kind of logic-based framework of the embodiment of the invention may further comprise the steps:
Step 1: set initial value, calculate the reliability index of initial scheme, if reach the first knowledge value of setting, the then whole investment of statistics, whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans; If whole investment exceeds investment budgey, then revise reliability objectives, and the whole investment of statistics provides plans again to the investment budgey of loading again;
Reliability objectives in the said step 1 is calculated and may further comprise the steps:
Step 1.1: obtain power distribution network electrical network parameter, operational factor, device parameter and management parameters to be assessed;
Step 1.2:, confirm probability of malfunction, arrange stoppage in transit probability, malfunction elimination time and repair time in advance according to each parameter that step 1.1 is obtained;
Step 1.3: amount is zero when putting total power failure; When calculating cable system respectively and can change and can not change under the confession situation each element fault and have a power failure influence total during the amount and the influence of arranging in advance to have a power failure total amount, overhead system can change and supply and amount when amount and arranging in advance has a power failure influence total can not change each element fault under the confession situation and have a power failure influence total the time, the most always ask for the whole network reliability index.
Electrical network parameter comprises total number of users N, main feeder quantity X in the said step 1.1
Always, the backbone total length L
Ml, the branch line total length L
Bl, the backbone switch counts n, the branch line switch is counted m, looped network rate H and automation coverage rate K
a
Operational factor comprises that total load P, load growth rate Δ P, circuit average load rate F, duplicate supply user lead D, band protection number of users N
p, automation time T aut and prepared auto restart time T
Bzt
Device parameter comprises line failure rate f
l, switch fault rate f
k, switching station failure rate f
k, user's failure rate f
t, cable rate C and insulating rate I; And
Management parameters comprises that fault outage on average investigates time T
Che, fault outage T mean time to repair
Rep, in advance arrange the average interruption duration T that has a power failure
PreWith preparatory arrangement power failure probability f
Per
Step 2: if calculate the initial value that the reliability index of initial scheme does not reach setting; Confirm then whether management parameters has room for promotion; If room for promotion is arranged, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 3: if the management parameters in the step 2 does not have room for promotion; Confirm then whether every section amount surpasses 8 families; If every section amount surpasses 8 families, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 4: if every section amount less than 8 families in the step 3; Confirm that then whether the feeder line load factor is greater than 40%; If the feeder line load factor is greater than 40%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 5: if in the step 4 if the feeder line load factor be not more than 40%; Confirm that then whether the looped network rate is less than 100%; If the looped network rate is less than 100%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 6: if the looped network rate in the step 5 is not less than 100%; Confirm that then fault outage accounts for total amount and whether reaches 50%; If fault outage accounts for total amount and reaches 50%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 7: do not reach 50% if the fault outage in the step 6 accounts for total amount; Then determine whether to exist the user of being unkitted protection; If there is the user be unkitted protection, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 8: if do not have a user of being unkitted protection in the step 7; Confirm that then whether the object of planning is less than 2 hours; If the object of planning is less than two hours, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 9: if the object of planning in the step 8 is not less than 2 hours; Confirm then whether equipment failure rate is higher than the corresponding national average value of target; If equipment failure rate is higher than the corresponding national average value of target, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 10: if the equipment failure rate in the step 9 is not higher than the corresponding national average value of target; Confirm once more that then whether the object of planning is less than 2 hours; If the object of planning is less than two hours, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans; Also do not reach the initial value of setting after reducing interruption duration per family and increasing cost, then revise reliability objectives and again the whole investment of statistics provide plans again to the investment budgey of loading.
Said step 2 does not also reach the initial value of setting, the corresponding next step of then packing into after reducing interruption duration per family and increasing cost to step 9.
The present invention is to each electrical network condition of different, and step 2 can be adjusted according to marginal benefit to the order of step 10, at first implements the big strategy of marginal benefit, implements the little strategy of marginal benefit again.The inventive method is at first according to the initial value of electrical network parameter, operational factor, device parameter and the management parameters of the prediction of definite reliability assessment such as Electric Power Network Planning, technological transformation planning and power distribution automation planning; Adopt reliability assessment prediction algorithm shown in Figure 2 to calculate the reliability index of initial scheme, reliability is examined hot index evaluating method distribution Power System Reliability calculating is divided into cable system, the calculating of overhead system two parts.And main whether can the commentaries on classics with load of power failure coverage, interruption duration supplies relevantly, therefore the typical wiring pattern is divided into and has contact pattern and no contact pattern to analyze for two kinds.
The function of reliability index computation model is a multi-variable function, for the ease of describing, reliability assessment anticipation function brief note is following function:
Y＝f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
Explain: F representes circuit average load rate, and H representes the line looped network rate, and circuit average load rate, looped network rate and the relation of changeing between the confession rate are following: H
N=2*H+3*H*F
Step 1: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 2 reduces and the investment of increase
T
Cne*, T
Rep*, f
Pre* represent respectively that step 2 is implemented the back fault outage investigation time, fault/preparatory arrangement has a power failure repair time and arrange outage rate in advance, its dependent variable remains unchanged, the interruption duration per family that reduces thus:
f[(f
pre*，T
che*，T
rep*)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: personnel's investment of reliability engineering and management project investment+increase
Step 2: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 3 reduces and the investment of increase
Its dependent variable remains unchanged, the interruption duration per family that reduces thus:
f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n*，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: every switch investment of (3* feeder line number-backbone switch) *
Step 3: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 4 reduces and the investment of increase
Can change the relation of confession rate and looped network rate and feeder line average load rate:
H
N＝2*H+3*H*F
F* representes step 4 enforcement back circuit average load rate value, and its dependent variable remains unchanged, according to H
N=2H+3HF calculates can change confession rate value H
N*, the interruption duration per family of calculating minimizing is following thus:
f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F*，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: every feeder line investment of (total load/2500-feeder line number) *
Step 4: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 5 reduces and the investment of increase
Can change the relation of confession rate and looped network rate and feeder line average load rate:
H
N＝2*H+3*H*F
H* representes step 5 enforcement back electrical network looped network rate value, and its dependent variable remains unchanged, according to H
N=2H+3HF calculates can change confession rate value H
N*, the interruption duration per family of calculating minimizing is following thus:
f[(f
pre，T
che，R
rep)，n，F，H*，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: (target looped network rate-present situation looped network rate) each looped network construction investment of *
Step 5: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 6 reduces and the investment of increase
Ka* representes step 6 enforcement back power distribution automation coverage value, and its dependent variable remains unchanged, the interruption duration per family that reduces thus:
f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a*，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: (power distribution automation target coverage rate-power distribution automation coverage rate) * trunk switch is counted * power distribution automation specific investment cost
Step 6: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 7 reduces and the investment of increase
Np* representes to install additional after step 7 is implemented the number of users of protection, and its dependent variable remains unchanged, the interruption duration per family that reduces thus:
f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p*，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: (1-user's error protection rate) total number of users * of * subscriber's protector specific investment cost
Step 7: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 8 reduces and the investment of increase
C* representes the cable rate after step 8 is implemented, and its dependent variable remains unchanged, the interruption duration per family that reduces thus:
f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C*，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
* the investment that increases: (target cable rate-cable rate) * total line length * cable specific investment cost
Step 8: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 9 reduces and the investment of increase
Step 9 is changed old equipment, has reduced the probability of malfunction of equipment, f
l*, f
k*, f
n*, f
t* represent implementation step 9 back four kinds of element fault probable values.Its dependent variable remains unchanged, the interruption duration per family that reduces thus:
f[(fpre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l*，f
k*，f
n*，f
t*)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: renewal of track milimeter number * circuit specific investment cost+switch update platform is counted * switch specific investment cost+switching station and is upgraded platform and count * switching station specific investment cost+distribution transforming and upgrade platform and count * distribution transforming specific investment cost
Renewal of the equipment quantity is calculated: (national average value-1 that equipment failure rate/object of planning is corresponding) * equipment sum or total line length
Step 9: the interruption duration per family that calculation procedure 10 reduces and the investment of increase
D* representes step 10 enforcement back duplicate supply user value of rate, and its dependent variable remains unchanged, the interruption duration per family that reduces thus:
f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D*，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]-f[(f
pre，T
che，T
rep)，n，F，H，k
a，N
p，C，(f
l，f
k，f
n，f
t)，D，L
ml，L
bl，T
bzt]
The investment that increases: average each user of (duplicate supply ownership goal value-duplicate supply number of users) * is installed the investment of duplicate supply additional.
Wherein, reliability assessment prediction algorithm shown in Figure 2 is specially:
One, reliability index computation model
1, computational methods
Adopt analytic method (fault enumerative technique) to carry out Calculation of Reliability; Selective system malfunction at first; Estimate the consequence that this state possibly cause, consider its influence, repeat all malfunctions then the load point reliability index; Obtain the index of each load point, and and then obtain the index of whole system.
Amount Δ S=fault effects user amount * investigation time when arbitrary element fault has a power failure+Fault Isolation zone power failure amount * repair time (element comprises: backbone ml, switch k, branch line bl and distribution transforming t), that is:
Amount ∑ Δ S=∑ Δ S when load point has a power failure
M1+ ∑ Δ S
k+ ∑ Δ S
B1+ ∑ Δ S
t(amount when unit is)
Amount=∑ Δ S (amount when unit is) during the power failure of system
The reliability index of system=∑ Δ S
c/ N (unit be hour)
2, boundary condition
The boundary condition that calculates, as follows:
(1) wall scroll feeder line length is identical, and segments is identical;
(2) load evenly distributes along feeder line, and average identical, the single switching station supply load of single hop line load is identical;
(3) consider that branch line goes out wiretap defencive function is arranged, fault is directly isolated, and does not influence main ring;
(4) consider that the user evenly distributes according to backbone and branch line.
The amount function gathered when 3, fault outage influenced
(1) cable system ∑ Δ S
c
(2) overhead system ∑ Δ S
j
∑ Δ S then
Fault(total time amount)=∑ Δ S
c+ ∑ Δ S
j=∑ Δ S
Ck+ ∑ Δ S
Cn+ ∑ Δ S
Jk+ ∑ Δ S
Jn
The amount function gathers when 4, arranging power failure to influence in advance
The amount computational methods are identical when arranging power failure to influence with fault outage in advance, also are to be divided into cable and overhead system, change confession and do not change the two kinds of patterns that supply.Arranging in advance has a power failure need not to consider that malfunction elimination time, interruption duration are the repair time of constructing.Shown in the amount function is summarized as follows when arranging power failure to influence in advance:
(1) cable system ∑ Δ S
c
(2) overhead system ∑ Δ S
j
∑ Δ S then
Fault(total time amount)=∑ Δ S
c+ ∑ Δ S
j=∑ Δ S
Ck+ ∑ Δ S
Cn+ ∑ Δ S
Jk+ ∑ Δ S
Jn
Therefore can draw: object of planning AIHC-1 (interruption duration per family)=(∑ Δ S
Fault+ ∑ Δ S
Arrange in advance)/N remarks: 1, parameter is a mean parameter
2, H
NFor changeing the confession rate, with respect to the looped network rate H in the electrical network parameter, circuit average load rate F has following calculating: H
N=2*H+3*H*F
1, dependability parameter computation model
1, probability of malfunction prediction
Forecast annual failure probability
2, arrange the stoppage in transit probabilistic forecasting in advance
In the pre-arranged outage probability forecast
3, malfunction elimination time prediction
Prediction year malfunction elimination time T
CheThe comprehensive lifting degree of=malfunction elimination time desired value-(malfunction elimination time desired value-standard year malfunction elimination time) * each item technology and control measures
4, fault/arrange in advance prediction repair time
Fault/arrange in advance to predict repair time T
RepThe comprehensive lifting degree of=fault/arrange in advance desired value repair time-(fault/arrange in advance desired value repair time-standard year fault/arrange repair time in advance) * each item technology and control measures
The present invention is not limited to above-mentioned preferred forms; Anyone can draw other various forms of products under enlightenment of the present invention; No matter but on its shape or structure, do any variation; Every have identical with a application or akin technical scheme, all drops within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. the mains supply reliability program method of a logic-based framework is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
Step 1: set initial value, calculate the reliability index of initial scheme, if reach the first knowledge value of setting, the then whole investment of statistics, whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 2: if calculate the initial value that the reliability index of initial scheme does not reach setting; Confirm then whether management parameters has room for promotion; If room for promotion is arranged, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 3: if the management parameters in the step 2 does not have room for promotion; Confirm then whether every section amount surpasses 8 families; If every section amount surpasses 8 families, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 4: if every section amount less than 8 families in the step 3; Confirm that then whether the feeder line load factor is greater than 40%; If the feeder line load factor is greater than 40%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 5: if the feeder line load factor is not more than 40% in the step 4; Confirm that then whether the looped network rate is less than 100%; If the looped network rate is less than 100%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 6: if the looped network rate in the step 5 is not less than 100%; Confirm that then fault outage accounts for total amount and whether reaches 50%; If fault outage accounts for total amount and reaches 50%, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 7: do not reach 50% if the fault outage in the step 6 accounts for total amount; Then determine whether to exist the user of being unkitted protection; If there is the user be unkitted protection, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 8: if do not have a user of being unkitted protection in the step 7; Confirm that then whether the object of planning is less than 2 hours; If the object of planning is less than two hours, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 9: if the object of planning in the step 8 is not less than 2 hours; Confirm then whether equipment failure rate is higher than the corresponding national average value of target; If equipment failure rate is higher than the corresponding national average value of target, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans;
Step 10: if the equipment failure rate in the step 9 is not higher than the corresponding national average value of target; Confirm once more that then whether the object of planning is less than 2 hours; If the object of planning is less than two hours, then reduce per family interruption duration and increase cost reaching the initial value of setting, and the whole investment of statistics; Whole investment does not exceed investment budgey, then provides plans.
2. the mains supply reliability program method of logic-based framework according to claim 1 is characterized in that: the reliability objectives in the said step 1 is calculated and may further comprise the steps:
Step 1.1: obtain power distribution network electrical network parameter, operational factor, device parameter and management parameters to be assessed;
Step 1.2:, confirm probability of malfunction, arrange stoppage in transit probability, malfunction elimination time and repair time in advance according to each parameter that step 1.1 is obtained;
Step 1.3: amount is zero when putting total power failure; When calculating cable system respectively and can change and can not change under the confession situation each element fault and have a power failure influence total during the amount and the influence of arranging in advance to have a power failure total amount, overhead system can change and supply and amount when amount and arranging in advance has a power failure influence total can not change each element fault under the confession situation and have a power failure influence total the time, the most always ask for the whole network reliability index.
3. the mains supply reliability program method of logic-based framework according to claim 2 is characterized in that: electrical network parameter comprises total number of users N, total, the backbone total length L of main feeder quantity X in the said step 1.1
Ml, the branch line total length L
Bl, the backbone switch counts n, the branch line switch is counted m, looped network rate H and automation coverage rate K
a
Operational factor comprises that total load P, load growth rate Δ P, circuit average load rate F, duplicate supply user lead D, band protection number of users N
p, the automation time T
AutWith the prepared auto restart time T
Bzt
Device parameter comprises line failure rate f
l, switch fault rate f
k, switching station failure rate f
k, user's failure rate f
t, cable rate C and insulating rate I; And
Management parameters comprises that fault outage on average investigates time T
Che, fault outage T mean time to repair
Rep, in advance arrange the average interruption duration T that has a power failure
PreWith preparatory arrangement power failure probability f
Pre
4. the mains supply reliability program method of logic-based framework according to claim 3; It is characterized in that: in the said step 1,, then revise reliability objectives if whole investment exceeds investment budgey; And the whole investment of statistics provides plans again to the investment budgey of loading again.
5. the mains supply reliability program method of logic-based framework according to claim 4 is characterized in that: among the said step 2-9, also do not reach the initial value of setting after reducing interruption duration per family and increasing cost, then get into corresponding next step.
6. according to the mains supply reliability program method of each described logic-based framework of claim 1-5; It is characterized in that: in the said step 10; Also do not reach the initial value of setting after reducing interruption duration per family and increasing cost; Then revise reliability objectives and add up whole investment again, provide plans again to the investment budgey of loading.
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