CN103839117A - Analysis determining method of power distribution reliability and investment sensitivity of power distribution networks - Google Patents
Analysis determining method of power distribution reliability and investment sensitivity of power distribution networks Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to an analysis determining method of the power distribution reliability and the investment sensitivity of power distribution networks. The method is applicable to reliability-based optimal planning of power distribution networks. The method comprises the following steps that (1) the reliability and the investment sensitivity of a single measure are analyzed; (2) the comprehensive reliability and the comprehensive investment sensitivity of various measures are analyzed; (3) the reliability and the investment sensitivity at different development stages are analyzed. The method can guide planning and construction emphases of the power distribution networks, optimize investment decisions, define investment directions and investment emphases and improve the construction efficiency and benefits of the power distribution networks.
Description
Technical field:
The present invention relates to a kind of reliability and investment sensitivity analysis determine method, more specifically relate to a kind of distribution network reliability and investment sensitivity analysis determine method.
Background technology:
The principal element that affects power supply reliability comprises electric network composition, equipment level, power distribution automation and operation management four broad aspect.(1) electric network composition is the fundamental in planning, is also the problem that first planning personnel must consider while carrying out High Reliability Design.The in the situation that of power distribution network generation power-off event, in system, whether there is for subsequent use turning for circuit, whether there is available switching point, all closely related with electric network composition, can have a direct impact power supply reliability.(2) good equipment is the important foundation that ensures power distribution network safe and reliable operation, and any major equipment breaks down all can directly have influence on the power supply reliability of system.(3) power distribution automation progressively becomes one of important measures that improve power supply reliability.Can utilize fault isolation and the automatic recovery of power supply function of feed line automatization system, reduce fault outage scope; Construct normally by improving electrical network, maintenance and accident maintenance work efficiency, reduce plan and fault outage time; By the real time monitoring to electrical network, find in time, process accident potential, implement repair based on condition of component, improve equipment dependability, avoid the generation of power outage.(4) height of the operation management level of electrical network is also an importance that affects power supply reliability.On certain power distribution network basis, the height of operation management level, not only can affect the operation conditions of electrical network itself, the more important thing is that pre-arrangement can be on non-fault time has a power failure to make a significant impact.Improve the power supply reliability of electrical network, also need to start with from above four class measures.
State Grid Corporation of China's division of the power supply area is A+, A, B, C, D, the large class of E six, except E class power supply area, every class power supply area is all had to corresponding power supply reliability requirement.At same power supply area, under identical investment level, different measure improves the degree difference of power supply reliability; At different power supply areas, under identical investment level, take the degree of same measure raising power supply reliability also not identical, therefore, reach power supply reliability requirement in order to realize with the expense of least cost, need research in different power supply areas, all kinds of measures, to improving the investment sensitivity analysis of power supply reliability, with optimization of investment decision-making, improve the lean level of distribution network planning.
Summary of the invention:
The object of this invention is to provide a kind of distribution network reliability and method is determined in investment sensitivity analysis, the method instructs distribution network planning to build emphasis, and optimization of investment decision-making, specifies investment orientation and key target for investment, improves efficiency and the benefit of distribution network construction.
For achieving the above object, the present invention by the following technical solutions: method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and described method is applicable to the optimization planning of the power distribution network based on reliability; Said method comprising the steps of:
(1) analyze the reliability of single measure and invest susceptibility;
(2) analyze the comprehensive reliability of all kinds of measures and investment sensitivity analysis;
(3) analyze different stages of development reliability and investment susceptibility.
Method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and the reliability of the single measure in described step (1) and investment susceptibility comprise the reliability investment susceptibility that reliability investment susceptibility that grid structure optimizes, reliability investment susceptibility that equipment level promotes, reliability investment susceptibility that power distribution automation level promotes and operation management level promote.
Method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and the analytic process of the reliability investment susceptibility of described grid structure optimization is:
In the situation that not considering to arrange power off time in advance, taking all kinds of power supply area power distribution network existing levels as basis, determine the theoretical power supply reliability that draws the various typical grid structures of all kinds of power supply areas;
Formulate grid structure prioritization scheme; The described grid structure prioritization scheme of built on stilts net comprises: radial-simply connected network, simply connected network-multi-joint network; Described in cable system, grid structure prioritization scheme comprises: injection-monocycle, monocycle-dicyclo, dijection-dicyclo;
Optimize the equipment manufacturing cost of engineering by all kinds of grid structures, determine the susceptibility that draws the investment of various grid structures optimization engineerings and determine the various grid structures optimization of different power supply areas engineering by following formula (1) and formula (2)
Method is determined in another preferred a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and described equipment level promotes and comprises cabling reconstructing and insulating transformation, and the analytic process of its reliability investment susceptibility is:
By the variation of equipment failure rate before and after cable or insulating transformation, the variation that draws all kinds of grid structure power supply reliabilities of the built on stilts net in all kinds of power supply area transformation front and back;
Again by cableization and insulating scrap build unit price, the investment that draws improvement project;
Draw the investment susceptibility of different power supply areas all kinds of grid structure cabling reconstructings of built on stilts net and insulating transformation by following formula (1) and formula (2)
Method is determined in a preferred a kind of distribution network reliability more provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and the reliability investment sensitivity analysis process that described power distribution automation level promotes is:
By the performance of power distribution automation, show that all kinds of power supply areas implement fault outage time shorten ratio after power distribution automations;
Formulate single line and implement the scheme of power distribution automation, that this scheme comprises is one distant, two distant and three distant; Described one distant for remote signalling, two distant be remote signalling and remote measurement, three distant be remote signalling, telemetry and telecommand;
By power distribution automation cost, draw the investment of single line enforcement power distribution automation;
Draw the susceptibility of the various typical grid structures enforcement power distribution automations of all kinds of power supply areas by following formula (1) and formula (2)
Method is determined in another preferred a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and the reliability investment sensitivity analysis process that described operation management level promotes is:
10kV circuit is implemented, after uninterrupted operation, to arrange in advance power off time to be reduced to 0;
According to the performance of uninterrupted operation, draw the required investment of single line enforcement uninterrupted operation;
Draw the susceptibility of seven kinds of typical grid structures enforcement uninterrupted operations of all kinds of power supply areas by following formula (1) and formula (2)
Method is determined in another preferred a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and in described step (2), the comprehensive reliability of all kinds of measures with investment sensitivity analysis process is:
Determine resultant fault power off time after all kinds of stimulation optimizations, arrange power off time and total power off time in advance;
Determine the gross investment of taking after all kinds of Optimized Measures;
Determine the comprehensive reliability of all kinds of measures and investment susceptibility.
Method is determined in another preferred a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, resultant fault power off time after described all kinds of stimulation optimizations, arranges power off time and total power off time definite by following formula (3), (4) and (5) in advance:
The rear pre-power off time (5) that arranges of fault outage time+optimization after total power off time=optimization after optimizing.
Method is determined in another preferred a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and the gross investment after described all kinds of Optimized Measures is determined by following formula (7):
Method is determined in another preferred a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and the comprehensive reliability of described all kinds of measures is determined by following formula (7) and (8) with investment susceptibility:
Method is determined in another preferred a kind of distribution network reliability provided by the invention and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and the different stages of development reliability in described step (3) is determined by described step (1) and described step (2) with investment susceptibility.
With immediate prior art ratio, the invention provides technical scheme and there is following excellent effect:
1, method of the present invention instructs distribution network planning construction, and investment orientation and key target for investment are specified in optimization of investment decision-making, improves efficiency and the benefit of distribution network construction;
2, method of the present invention realizes and reaches power supply reliability requirement with the expense of least cost;
3, the influence degree of method quantitative analysis different measure of the present invention to all kinds of power supply area reliabilities, analyzes the susceptibility improving under different measure relatively between distribution network reliability and required investment.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is that grid structure optimization susceptibility of the present invention is determined process flow diagram;
Fig. 2 is that equipment level lifting susceptibility of the present invention is determined process flow diagram;
Fig. 3 is that power distribution automation level lifting susceptibility of the present invention is determined process flow diagram;
Fig. 4 is that uninterrupted operation level lifting susceptibility of the present invention is determined process flow diagram;
Fig. 5 is that the comprehensive susceptibility of all kinds of measure of the present invention is determined process flow diagram;
Fig. 6 is that single width of the present invention is penetrated conspectus;
Fig. 7 is single interconnector schematic diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 8 is injection formula conspectus of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment, the invention will be described in further detail.
Embodiment 1:
As shown in Fig. 1-8, this routine inventive method step is:
1. determine the reliability and investment sensitivity analysis of single measure
A. grid structure optimization
Current 10 kilovolts of built on stilts hosts will comprise multi-joint network, simply connected network and radial three kinds of structures, and 10 kv cable hosts will comprise dicyclic, monocyclic, twinshot and four kinds of structures of injection formula.Grid structure optimization mainly refers to that grid structure that reliability is low, to the high grid structure conversion of reliability, is optimized for simply connected network as radial.The reliability that grid structure is optimized is invested susceptibility process as shown in Figure 1:
I. taking all kinds of power supply area power distribution network existing levels as basis, calculate the theoretical power supply reliability (not considering to arrange in advance power off time) of the various typical grid structures of all kinds of power supply areas.
Ii. formulate grid structure prioritization scheme, built on stilts net comprises: radial-simply connected network, simply connected network-multi-joint network; Cable system comprises: injection-monocycle, monocycle-dicyclo, dijection-dicyclo.
Iii. optimize the equipment manufacturing cost of engineering in conjunction with current all kinds of grid structures, calculate the investment of various grid structures optimization engineerings.
Iv. calculate the susceptibility of the various grid structures optimization of different power supply areas engineering by following formula (1) and formula (2):
B. equipment level promotes
The equipment level of 10kV power distribution network promotes and mainly comprises two large classes: cabling reconstructing and insulating transformation, this two classes transformation major effect equipment failure rate.The reliability that equipment level promotes is invested susceptibility process as shown in Figure 2:
I. according to the variation of equipment failure rate before and after transformation, calculate the variation of all kinds of grid structure power supply reliabilities of the built on stilts net in all kinds of power supply area transformation front and back.
Ii. in conjunction with cableization and insulating scrap build unit price, calculate the investment of improvement project.
Iii. calculate the investment susceptibility of different power supply areas all kinds of grid structure cabling reconstructings of built on stilts net and insulating transformation by following formula (1) and formula (2):
C. power distribution automation level promotes
10kV power distribution network is implemented power distribution automation can shorten localization of fault and isolation processing equal time, thereby improves power supply reliability.The reliability that power distribution automation level promotes is invested susceptibility process as shown in Figure 3:
I. according to the current performance of power distribution automation, show that all kinds of power supply areas implement fault outage time shorten ratio after power distribution automations.
Ii. formulate single line and implement the scheme of power distribution automation, mainly comprise " one is distant ", " two is distant ", " three is distant ", described one distant be remote signalling, two distant be remote signalling and remote measurement, three distant be remote signalling, telemetry and telecommand.
Iii. in conjunction with power distribution automation cost, draw the investment of single line enforcement power distribution automation.
And then calculate the various typical grid structures of all kinds of power supply areas and implement the susceptibility of power distribution automations by following formula (1) and formula (2) iv..
D. operation management level promotes
Uninterrupted operation is a main aspect of operation management, and 10kV power distribution network is implemented uninterrupted operation can reduce pre-arrangement power off time, thereby improves power supply reliability.The reliability that uninterrupted operation level promotes is invested susceptibility process as shown in Figure 4:
I.10kV circuit is implemented, after uninterrupted operation, to think that pre-arrangement power off time is reduced to 0.
Ii. according to the performance of current uninterrupted operation, draw the required investment of single line enforcement uninterrupted operation.
Iii. calculate the susceptibility of seven kinds of typical grid structures enforcement uninterrupted operations of all kinds of power supply areas by following formula (1) and (2).
2. the comprehensive reliability and investment sensitivity analysis of all kinds of measures
On the basis of single measures analysis, consider grid structure optimization, equipment level lifting, the lifting of power distribution automation level, the lifting of uninterrupted operation level, calculate reliability after all kinds of measure complex optimums and investment susceptibility, its process as shown in Figure 5:
A. calculate resultant fault power off time after all kinds of stimulation optimizations, arrange power off time and total power off time in advance by following formula (3), (4) and (5).
The rear pre-power off time (5) that arranges of fault outage time+optimization after total power off time=optimization after optimizing
Grid structure optimization, equipment lifting and the measure of Distribution Automation Construction three aspects: are mainly by reducing fault outage time lifting power supply reliability, and comprehensive three impacts of class measure on the fault outage time, can calculate the rear fault outage time of optimizing; The horizontal measure for improvement of uninterrupted operation mainly arranges power off time to promote power supply reliability by reducing in advance, considers the impact of uninterrupted operation level on pre-arrangement power off time, can calculate and optimize the rear pre-power off time that arranges; After optimizing, the fault outage time is power supply reliability RS-3 power off time with the pre-power off time sum that arranges; Power supply reliability RS-3 is that statistics is removed the non-power off time accounting of rationing the power supply.
B. calculate by following formula (6) gross investment of taking after all kinds of Optimized Measures
C. calculate the comprehensive reliability of all kinds of measures and investment susceptibility by following formula (7) and (8).
(2) according to above implementation step, to grid structure optimization, equipment level promote, power distribution automation level promotes, uninterrupted operation level four class Optimized Measures carry out computational analysis at the susceptibility of all kinds of power supply areas, can obtain under the various grid structures of all kinds of power supply areas all kinds of Optimized Measures susceptibilitys as shown in Fig. 6-8.
(3) different stages of development reliability and investment sensitivity analysis
The state of power distribution network in development,, in different developing stage, both having there is the aspect such as grid structure, equipment level electrical network present situation difference in same distribution network, also has the demand differences such as reliability index; Same reliability measure for improvement, the validity embodying at different stages of development (susceptibility) is also different.In fact, the lateral variation on all kinds of power supply areas space, has also embodied same power supply area to a great extent at the temporal longitudinal difference of different stages of development.For example, the present situation of category-B power supply area, is similar to future of C class power supply area, and the difference between this two classes power supply area, can reflect two differences between different stages of development substantially.Therefore, analyze investment and the reliability susceptibility of different measure between all kinds of power supply areas, also just analyzed to a certain extent investment and the reliability sensitivity difference of each class power supply area at different stages of development.
(4) correlation parameter of using in the application is as follows:
Table 1 grid structure is optimized construction investment unit: Wan Yuan
| Classification | A+ | A | B | C | D |
| A) single radiation-simply connected network | 91 | 91 | 100 | 134 | 134 |
| B) simply connected network-multi-joint network | 82 | 82 | 91 | 122.5 | 122.5 |
| C) injection-monocycle | 424 | 424 | 622.4 | 659.2 | 659.2 |
| D) monocycle-dicyclo | 456 | 456 | 678.4 | 763.2 | 763.2 |
| E) injection-dijection | 636 | 636 | 809.12 | 856.96 | 856.96 |
The equipment failure rate of table 2 overhead transmission line and cable line
| Circuit types | Equipment failure rate (inferior/100km) |
| Circuit types | Equipment failure rate (inferior/100km) |
| Overhead transmission line | 1.98 |
| Cable line | 0.69 |
Table 3 is implemented fault outage time shorten ratio after power distribution automation
| Region | One is distant | Two is distant | Three is distant |
| A+ | 20% | 30% | 90 |
| A | |||
| 20% | 30% | 90 | |
| B | |||
| 20% | 30% | 90 | |
| C | |||
| 50% | 60% | 80 | |
| D | |||
| 60% | 70% | 80% |
Table 4 single line is implemented power distribution automation investing unit: Wan Yuan
Finally should be noted that: above embodiment is only in order to illustrate that technical scheme of the present invention is not intended to limit, although the present invention is had been described in detail with reference to above-described embodiment, those of ordinary skill in the field are to be understood that: still can modify or be equal to replacement the specific embodiment of the present invention, and do not depart from any amendment of spirit and scope of the invention or be equal to replacement, it all should be encompassed in the middle of this claim scope.
Claims (11)
1. a method is determined in distribution network reliability and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, and described method is applicable to the optimization planning of the power distribution network based on reliability; It is characterized in that: said method comprising the steps of:
(1) analyze the reliability of single measure and invest susceptibility;
(2) analyze the comprehensive reliability of all kinds of measures and investment sensitivity analysis;
(3) analyze different stages of development reliability and investment susceptibility.
2. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 1 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: the reliability of the single measure in described step (1) and investment susceptibility comprise the reliability investment susceptibility that reliability investment susceptibility that grid structure optimizes, reliability investment susceptibility that equipment level promotes, reliability investment susceptibility that power distribution automation level promotes and operation management level promote.
3. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 2 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: the analytic process of the reliability investment susceptibility of described grid structure optimization is:
In the situation that not considering to arrange power off time in advance, taking all kinds of power supply area power distribution network existing levels as basis, determine the theoretical power supply reliability that draws the various typical grid structures of all kinds of power supply areas;
Formulate grid structure prioritization scheme; The described grid structure prioritization scheme of built on stilts net comprises: radial-simply connected network, simply connected network-multi-joint network; Described in cable system, grid structure prioritization scheme comprises: injection-monocycle, monocycle-dicyclo, dijection-dicyclo;
Optimize the equipment manufacturing cost of engineering by all kinds of grid structures, determine the investment that draws various grid structures optimization engineerings, and determine the susceptibility of the various grid structures optimization of different power supply areas engineering by following formula (1) and formula (2)
4. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 3 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: described equipment level promotes and comprises cabling reconstructing and insulating transformation, and the analytic process of its reliability investment susceptibility is:
By the variation of equipment failure rate before and after cabling reconstructing and insulating transformation, the variation that draws all kinds of grid structure power supply reliabilities of the built on stilts net in all kinds of power supply area transformation front and back;
Again by cableization and insulating scrap build unit price, the investment that draws improvement project;
Draw the investment susceptibility of different power supply areas all kinds of grid structure cabling reconstructings of built on stilts net and insulating transformation by following formula (1) and formula (2)
5. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 4 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: the reliability investment sensitivity analysis process that described power distribution automation level promotes is:
By the performance of power distribution automation, show that all kinds of power supply areas implement fault outage time shorten ratio after power distribution automations;
Formulate single line and implement the scheme of power distribution automation, that this scheme comprises is one distant, two distant and three distant; Described one distant for remote signalling, two distant be remote signalling and remote measurement, three distant be remote signalling, telemetry and telecommand;
By power distribution automation cost, draw the investment of single line enforcement power distribution automation;
Draw the susceptibility of the various typical grid structures enforcement power distribution automations of all kinds of power supply areas by following formula (1) and formula (2)
6. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 5 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: the reliability investment sensitivity analysis process that described operation management level promotes is:
10kV circuit is implemented, after uninterrupted operation, to arrange in advance power off time to be reduced to 0;
According to the performance of uninterrupted operation, draw the required investment of single line enforcement uninterrupted operation;
Draw the susceptibility of seven kinds of typical grid structures enforcement uninterrupted operations of all kinds of power supply areas by following formula (1) and formula (2)
7. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 1 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: in described step (2), the comprehensive reliability of all kinds of measures with investment sensitivity analysis process is:
Determine resultant fault power off time after all kinds of stimulation optimizations, arrange power off time and total power off time in advance;
Determine the gross investment of taking after all kinds of Optimized Measures;
Determine the comprehensive reliability of all kinds of measures and investment susceptibility.
8. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 7 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: resultant fault power off time after described all kinds of stimulation optimizations, arrange power off time and total power off time definite by following formula (3), (4) and (5) in advance:
The rear pre-power off time (5) that arranges of fault outage time+optimization after total power off time=optimization after optimizing.
9. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 8 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: the gross investment after described all kinds of Optimized Measures is determined by following formula (7):
10. method is determined in a kind of distribution network reliability as claimed in claim 9 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: the comprehensive reliability of described all kinds of measures is determined by following formula (7) and (8) with investment susceptibility:
Method is determined in 11. a kind of distribution network reliabilities as claimed in claim 1 and investment sensitivity analysis thereof, it is characterized in that: the different stages of development reliability in described step (3) is determined by described step (1) and described step (2) with investment susceptibility.
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| CN106530134A (en) * | 2016-11-16 | 2017-03-22 | 国家电网公司 | Influence index marginal benefit analysis method and device based on reliability calculation model |
| CN107067337A (en) * | 2016-12-08 | 2017-08-18 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of power distribution network high reliability powering mode determines method |
| CN109544041A (en) * | 2018-12-21 | 2019-03-29 | 云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Calculation method of the power distribution network life cycle management each stage to reliability contribution degree |
| CN110263967A (en) * | 2019-05-07 | 2019-09-20 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | The sensitivity coefficient calculation method of electric grid investment and development effect |
| CN111222649A (en) * | 2019-11-26 | 2020-06-02 | 广州供电局有限公司 | Self-healing capacity improvement planning method for power distribution network |
| CN113516421A (en) * | 2021-09-14 | 2021-10-19 | 广东电网有限责任公司东莞供电局 | Decision-making method, device and equipment for network distribution automation mode selection and point selection |
| CN113516421B (en) * | 2021-09-14 | 2022-01-18 | 广东电网有限责任公司东莞供电局 | Decision-making method, device and equipment for network distribution automation mode selection and point selection |
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