CN101834001A - Optimal control method aiming at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost - Google Patents

Optimal control method aiming at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost Download PDF

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CN101834001A
CN101834001A CN201010146871A CN201010146871A CN101834001A CN 101834001 A CN101834001 A CN 101834001A CN 201010146871 A CN201010146871 A CN 201010146871A CN 201010146871 A CN201010146871 A CN 201010146871A CN 101834001 A CN101834001 A CN 101834001A
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nuclear accident
nuclear
loss
emergency
accident
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黄顺祥
符天保
刘峰
王永红
赵远
郑启燕
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Antichemical Command Engineering College P L A
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    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
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    • Y02E30/00—Energy generation of nuclear origin

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Abstract

The invention relates to an optimal control method aiming at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, belonging to the field of nuclear hazard control. The optimal control method comprises the following steps of: (1) confirming a nuclear accident simulation range; (2) acquiring prediction results of wind filed and turbulent flow of the nuclear accident simulation range; (3) acquiring nuclear accident simulation range data observed by a meteorological observation network at the real time; (4) carrying out assimilation on the prediction results of the field wind and the turbulent flow in the step (2) and the acquired data observed by the meteorological observation network at the real time in the step (3); (5) carrying out diffusion simulation on nuclear accidents; (6) acquiring nuclear accident early-warning information; (7) formulating an optimal control scheme of the nuclear accident loss and the emergency action cost; and (8) providing the optimal control scheme of the nuclear accident loss and the emergency action cost for a commander to make decision. The invention improves the diffusion simulation precision, solves the contradiction between the accident emergency intervention effect and the action cost and improves the solving efficiency of the optimal control problem by more than two magnitude orders.

Description

Optimal control method at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of optimal control method, belong to nuclear risk control field at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost.
Background technology
Since Chernobyl nuclear accident, the disastrous of nuclear accident laid deep branding to common people.Current, the world has no peace and tranquility, and nuclear threat still exists, and especially repeatedly causes the crisis over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program that common people pay close attention to, and China's national security and people ' s health have been constituted potential harm.In a single day nuclear facilities is attacked, and will cause serious consequence.China is that the surrounding countries of representative greatly develop nuclear industry with Korea as nuclear industry big country simultaneously, and potential nuclear risk has caused that country and various circles of society pay much attention to.Therefore, strick precaution and control technology research to nuclear accident harm have the important strategic meaning.
The strick precaution of nuclear accident harm mainly comprises with control to be carried out emergency disposal and potential risk is carried out prevention and control nuclear accident.Implement the strick precaution and the control of nuclear accident harm for science, must at first carry out the nuclear accident hazard prediction, then based on predict the outcome and action level carry out early warning, and carry out emergency response according to early warning information, implement intervening measure, reach the target of avoiding or alleviating radiation consequence, make nuclear accident loss and action cost minimum simultaneously.
At present, China all adopts accurate static(al) pattern to nuclear accident prediction early warning and control technology, simulates wind field by real-time meteorological measuring as basic condition, carries out diffusion simulations on this basis.This method is comparatively ripe, but distinct issues are accurate static(al) pattern and can not carry out forecast truly, especially non-static(al) factor and complicated thermal procession are difficult to consider, often there are very big difference in simulation forecast result and actual conditions, and, pursue the ageing of simulation in order to utilize the real-time monitored data as initial field, cause resolution lower, sacrifice the accuracy of simulation once more, so be difficult to satisfy actual needs in the practical application.China's nuclear power station is most to be built by the sea or the mountain area, and meteorological field is controlled by complicated power and thermal procession, and the analog result of using existing accurate static(al) pattern instructs emergency disposal to occur than large deviation unavoidably.In accident emergency was disposed, emergent strength input is excessive, certainly will increase emergency action cost, and was too small if emergent strength drops into, and is difficult to arrive the intervention target again.The ageing contradiction with the contradiction and the accident emergency intervention effect of accuracy and the cost of taking action of nuclear accident hazard prediction precaution is the big technical barrier in two in this area.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to propose a kind of optimal control method, solve nuclear accident hazard prediction precaution ageing and the contradiction of accuracy and the contradiction of accident emergency intervention effect and action cost at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost.
The objective of the invention is to be achieved through the following technical solutions.
A kind of optimal control method at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, its step is as follows:
Step 1, according to the position of nuclear accident, monitoring nuclear accident source strength, and definite kernel co simulate scope.
Step 2, the nuclear accident simulation context that obtains according to step 1 obtain the wind field of nuclear accident simulation context, the forecast result of amount of turbulence.
Step 3, the coring co simulate scope that obtains according to step 1 obtain the data of the meteorological observation net real-time monitored of coring co simulate scope.
Step 4, the wind field with step 2, the forecast result of amount of turbulence and the data of the meteorological observation net real-time monitored that step 3 obtains are assimilated.
Step 5, nuclear risk is carried out diffusion simulations
Use dispersal pattern, meteorological field and nucleic database that the accident source monitoring result that invocation step one obtains, step 4 obtain carry out diffusion simulations to nuclear risk, obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of nuclear accident dosage field.
Step 6, acquisition nuclear accident early warning information
Nuclear risk diffusion simulations result according to step 5; guidance is to the emergency monitoring of protection target; and emergency monitoring result and diffusion simulations result carried out analysis-by-synthesis, draw nuclear accident the scope of withdrawing, clothes iodine scope, hidden scope, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hidden depth, withdraw emergent gordian technique data such as area, clothes iodine area, hidden area, harm start time and harm duration.
The optimization control scheme of step 7, formulation nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost
In step 6 the nuclear accident consequence is carried out on the base of prediction, formulate optimization control scheme at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost.Its concrete operations step is as follows:
The 1st step: set up optimizing control models at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost
The economic loss that nuclear accident causes can be divided into two aspects: the 1. loss that causes of nuclear accident itself, as: because of radiomaterial is infected with seriously, these local incompatibility human livings, this can cause direct economy or property loss; The property loss that emergency action cost when 2. tackling nuclear accident causes.The loss mathematical description of two aspects is shown in formula 1 and formula 2:
A c ( P , C , M , T , O ) = Σ i = 1 N 1 t i P i + Σ i = 1 N 2 τ i Eq i + Σ i = 1 N 3 M i + Σ i = 1 N 4 T i + Σ i = 1 K O k - - - ( 1 )
Wherein, P iBe the cost that i props up emergent unit's unit interval, 1≤i≤N 1, N 1For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; t iBe that i props up the time that emergent unit sets out personnel; Eq iRepresent the i class cost of equipment unit interval, 1≤i≤N 2, N 2For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; τ iIt is the time that i class equipment uses; M iThe value of representing the emergent depleting substance of i class, 1≤i≤N 3, N 3For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; T iThe operation cost of representing i kind emergency communication equipment, 1≤i≤N 4, N 4For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; O kRefer to the contingent fund except that the 4 kinds of action in front cost, 1≤i≤K, K are the positive integer more than or equal to 1; A c(P, C, M, T O) is the action cost.
B l ( s , λ , η , B d , P d , En ) = Σ i = 1 N s j λ j B d ( j ) + Σ i = 1 N Σ k = 1 M η k P d ( j , k ) + Σ i = 1 N s j En j - - - ( 2 )
Wherein, B d(j) be contaminated j regional property concentration class, 1≤j≤N, N are the positive integer more than or equal to 1; λ jLoss coefficient for property in contaminated j the zone; s jArea for contaminated j zone; P d(j k) is subjected to the number that the k level endangers for contaminated j zone; η kThe expense (comprising payment for medical care, compensation, mental compensation gold etc.) that the personnel that endanger for each k level need compensate; En jThe ecologic environment loss of unit area in contaminated j the zone; B l(s, λ, η, B d, P d, En) be the property loss of nuclear accident to causing in j the zone.
Therefore, the objective function J of nuclear accident total losses is:
J＝A c(P，C，M，T，O)+B l(s，λ，η，B d，P d，En) (3)
Final dose reaches a certain threshold value d in the zone of being controlled J0The time, the objective function J of nuclear accident total losses reaches minimum optimizing control models and is:
minJ＝min(A c(P，C，M，T，O)+B l(s，λ，η，B d，P d，En)) (4)
s.t.d(x j，y j，z j)≤d j0，j＝1，2，...，N
Wherein, x jIt is the horizontal ordinate in i zone; y jIt is the ordinate in i zone; z jBe i regions perpendicular coordinate.
Adopt the optimizing control models of penalty function method structure at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost:
J new = A c ( P , C , M , T , O ) + B l ( s , λ , η , B d , P d , En ) + γ Σ j = 1 N w [ d ( x j + y j ) - d j 0 ] - - - ( 5 )
w ( p ) = p 2 p &GreaterEqual; . 0 p 2 exp ( - p 2 / &beta; ) p < 0
Wherein, γ, β are function coefficients; P is a function variable; The value of γ, β can be adjusted according to actual conditions.
The 2nd step: the application adjoint method is found the solution the optimizing control models at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, obtains optimum Nuclear Accident Emergency optimization control scheme.
The nuclear accident loss of step 8, optimum that step 7 is obtained and the optimization control scheme of emergency action cost offer the cammander and make a strategic decision.
Beneficial effect
1. the meteorological field after the present invention's data of using the forecast result of wind field, amount of turbulence and meteorological observation net real-time monitored are assimilated carries out diffusion simulations to nuclear risk, has improved the precision of diffusion simulations;
2. adopt penalty function method structure at the optimizing control models of nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost and use adjoint method and find the solution optimizing control models at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, obtain optimum Nuclear Accident Emergency optimization control scheme, solved the contradiction of accident emergence environment effect and action cost, the efficient of finding the solution of optimal control problem has been improved two more than the order of magnitude.
Embodiment
The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with embodiment.
A kind of optimal control method at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, its step is as follows:
Step 1, according to the position of nuclear accident, monitoring nuclear accident source strength, and definite kernel co simulate scope;
Step 2, the nuclear accident simulation context that obtains according to step 1 obtain the wind field of nuclear accident simulation context, the forecast result of amount of turbulence; Its concrete operations step is as follows:
The 1st step: the ambient field of using global yardstick, as weather forecast pattern initial field, the GIS data of calling the nuclear accident simulation context are as boundary condition, nested by multi-layer net, the rolling parallel computation, forecast the meteorological field of (determining) nuclear accident simulation context in following tens of hours, comprise wind field, amount of turbulence, temperature field, field of pressure etc. according to actual conditions;
The 2nd step: the model predictions result that the 1st yardstick that obtains of step is big is as PRELIMINARY RESULTS, and the numerical model that application resolution is high is forecast accurately, draws the wind field of nuclear accident simulation context, the forecast result of amount of turbulence.
Step 3, the coring co simulate scope that obtains according to step 1 obtain the data of the meteorological observation net real-time monitored of coring co simulate scope.
Step 4, the wind field with step 2, the forecast result of amount of turbulence and the data of the meteorological observation net real-time monitored that step 3 obtains are assimilated.
Step 5, nuclear risk is carried out diffusion simulations
Use dispersal pattern, meteorological field and nucleic database that the accident source monitoring result that invocation step one obtains, step 4 obtain carry out diffusion simulations to nuclear risk, obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of nuclear accident dosage field; Its concrete operations step is as follows:
The 1st step: with the accident spot is the center, and the scope in diffusion simulations zone is set, and by the data transformation engine module this longitude and latitude is converted to corresponding planimetric rectangular coordinates in the diffusion simulations zone;
The 2nd step: power, the type of reactor, the hidden situation of personnel, reactor core release characteristics parameter that accident is set;
The 3rd step: the wind field and the amount of turbulence that obtain in the invocation step four, calculate the size of source strength, utilize random walk mode computation radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading process then, call the Rapid Dose Calculation pattern, calculate the plume external exposure respectively, suck internal radiation, superficial deposit external exposure, draw heavy water reactor or light-water reactor nucleic hazard conditions personnel.
Step 6, acquisition nuclear accident early warning information
Nuclear risk diffusion simulations result according to step 5; guidance is to the emergency monitoring of protection target; and emergency monitoring result and diffusion simulations result carried out data assimilation, draw nuclear accident the scope of withdrawing, clothes iodine scope, hidden scope, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hidden depth, withdraw emergent gordian technique data such as area, clothes iodine area, hidden area, harm start time and harm duration.
The optimization control scheme of step 7, formulation nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost
In step 6 the nuclear accident consequence is carried out on the base of prediction, formulate optimization control scheme at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost.Its concrete operations step is as follows:
The 1st step: set up optimizing control models, as shown in Equation 5 at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost;
The 2nd step: the application adjoint method is found the solution the optimizing control models at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, obtains optimum Nuclear Accident Emergency optimization control scheme.
The nuclear accident loss of step 8, optimum that step 7 is obtained and the optimization control scheme of emergency action cost offer the cammander and make a strategic decision.

Claims (1)

1. optimal control method at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, it is characterized in that: its concrete steps are as follows:
Step 1, according to the position of nuclear accident, monitoring nuclear accident source strength, and definite kernel co simulate scope;
Step 2, the nuclear accident simulation context that obtains according to step 1 obtain the wind field of nuclear accident simulation context, the forecast result of amount of turbulence;
Step 3, the coring co simulate scope that obtains according to step 1 obtain the data of the meteorological observation net real-time monitored of coring co simulate scope;
Step 4, the wind field with step 2, the forecast result of amount of turbulence and the data of the meteorological observation net real-time monitored that step 3 obtains are assimilated;
Step 5, nuclear risk is carried out diffusion simulations
Use dispersal pattern, meteorological field and nucleic database that the accident source monitoring result that invocation step one obtains, step 4 obtain carry out diffusion simulations to nuclear risk, obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of nuclear accident dosage field;
Step 6, acquisition nuclear accident early warning information
Nuclear risk diffusion simulations result according to step 5, guidance is to the emergency monitoring of protection target, and emergency monitoring result and diffusion simulations result carried out analysis-by-synthesis, draw nuclear accident the scope of withdrawing, clothes iodine scope, hidden scope, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hidden depth, withdraw emergent gordian technique data such as area, clothes iodine area, hidden area, harm start time and harm duration;
The optimization control scheme of step 7, formulation nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost
In step 6 the nuclear accident consequence is carried out on the base of prediction, formulate optimization control scheme at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost; Its concrete operations step is as follows:
The 1st step: set up optimizing control models at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost
The economic loss that nuclear accident causes can be divided into two aspects: the 1. loss that causes of nuclear accident itself, as: because of radiomaterial is infected with seriously, these local incompatibility human livings, this can cause direct economy or property loss; The property loss that emergency action cost when 2. tackling nuclear accident causes; The loss mathematical description of two aspects is shown in formula 1 and formula 2:
A c ( P , C , M , T , O ) = &Sigma; i = 1 N 1 t i P i + &Sigma; i = 1 N 2 &tau; i Eq i + &Sigma; i = 1 N 3 M i + &Sigma; i = 1 N 4 T i + &Sigma; i = 1 K O k - - - ( 1 )
Wherein, P iBe the cost that i props up emergent unit's unit interval, 1≤i≤N 1, N 1For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; t iBe that i props up the time that emergent unit sets out personnel; Eq iRepresent the i class cost of equipment unit interval, 1≤i≤N 2, N 2For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; τ iIt is the time that i class equipment uses; M iThe value of representing the emergent depleting substance of i class, 1≤i≤N 3, N 3For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; T iThe operation cost of representing i kind emergency communication equipment, 1≤i≤N 4, N 4For more than or equal to 1 positive integer; O kRefer to the contingent fund except that the 4 kinds of action in front cost, 1≤i≤K, K are the positive integer more than or equal to 1; A c(P, C, M, T O) is the action cost;
B l ( s , &lambda; , &eta; , B d , P d , En ) = &Sigma; i = 1 N s j &lambda; j B d ( j ) + &Sigma; i = 1 N &Sigma; k = 1 M &eta; k P d ( j , k ) + &Sigma; i = 1 N s j En j - - - ( 2 )
Wherein, B d(j) be contaminated j regional property concentration class, 1≤j≤N, N are the positive integer more than or equal to 1; λ jLoss coefficient for property in contaminated j the zone; s jArea for contaminated j zone; P d(j k) is subjected to the number that the k level endangers for contaminated j zone; η kThe expense (comprising payment for medical care, compensation, mental compensation gold etc.) that the personnel that endanger for each k level need compensate; En jThe ecologic environment loss of unit area in contaminated j the zone; B l(s, λ, η, B d, P d, En) be the property loss of nuclear accident to causing in j the zone;
Therefore, the objective function J of nuclear accident total losses is:
J＝A c(P，C，M，T，O)+B l(s，λ，η，B d，P d，En) (3)
Final dose reaches a certain threshold value d in the zone of being controlled J0The time, the objective function J of nuclear accident total losses reaches minimum optimizing control models and is:
minJ＝min(A c(P，C，M，T，O)+B l(s，λ，η，B d，P d，En)) (4)
s.t. d(x j，y j，z j)≤d j0，j＝1，2，...，N
Wherein, x jIt is the horizontal ordinate in i zone; y jIt is the ordinate in i zone; z jBe i regions perpendicular coordinate;
Adopt the optimizing control models of penalty function method structure at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost:
J new = A c ( P , C , M , T , O ) + B l ( s , &lambda; , &eta; , B d , P d , En ) + &gamma; &Sigma; j = 1 N w [ d ( x j + y j ) - d j 0 ] - - - ( 5 )
w ( p ) = p 2 p &GreaterEqual; 0 p 2 exp ( - p 2 / &beta; ) p < 0
Wherein, γ, β are function coefficients; P is a function variable; The value of γ, β can be adjusted according to actual conditions;
The 2nd step: the application adjoint method is found the solution the optimizing control models at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost, obtains optimum Nuclear Accident Emergency optimization control scheme;
The Nuclear Accident Emergency optimization control scheme of step 8, optimum that step 7 is obtained offers the cammander and makes a strategic decision.
CN201010146871A 2010-04-12 2010-04-12 Optimal control method aiming at nuclear accident loss and emergency action cost Pending CN101834001A (en)

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CN103065694A (en) * 2012-12-24 2013-04-24 中国核电工程有限公司 Instrument availability analysis method for severe accidents of nuclear power plant
CN104217264A (en) * 2013-05-29 2014-12-17 江苏省核应急办公室 Nuclear accident emergency command system
CN107527108A (en) * 2016-06-21 2017-12-29 中国辐射防护研究院 A kind of Small and Medium Sized wind field Forecasting Methodology of nuclear facilities Accident Off-site Consequence evaluation
CN107526910A (en) * 2016-06-21 2017-12-29 中国辐射防护研究院 A kind of wind field diagnostic method in nuclear facilities Accident Off-site Consequence evaluation
CN109977544A (en) * 2019-03-26 2019-07-05 华南理工大学 A kind of Airborne radionuclide131The analogy method of I disperse within the scope of mesoscale

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CA2415719A1 (en) * 2002-10-30 2004-04-30 Korea Electric Power Corporation Optimum evaluation system for safety analysis of a nuclear power plant

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Cited By (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103065694A (en) * 2012-12-24 2013-04-24 中国核电工程有限公司 Instrument availability analysis method for severe accidents of nuclear power plant
CN103065694B (en) * 2012-12-24 2015-12-09 中国核电工程有限公司 Nuclear power plant's major accident instrument availability analytical approach
CN104217264A (en) * 2013-05-29 2014-12-17 江苏省核应急办公室 Nuclear accident emergency command system
CN107527108A (en) * 2016-06-21 2017-12-29 中国辐射防护研究院 A kind of Small and Medium Sized wind field Forecasting Methodology of nuclear facilities Accident Off-site Consequence evaluation
CN107526910A (en) * 2016-06-21 2017-12-29 中国辐射防护研究院 A kind of wind field diagnostic method in nuclear facilities Accident Off-site Consequence evaluation
CN109977544A (en) * 2019-03-26 2019-07-05 华南理工大学 A kind of Airborne radionuclide131The analogy method of I disperse within the scope of mesoscale

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Application publication date: 20100915