CN101718827A - Method for diagnosing rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model - Google Patents
Method for diagnosing rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for diagnosing the rest service life of power network facilities after an earthquake by using a service life distribution model. The method comprises the following steps of: (1) dividing a whole estimating area into a plurality of small areas according to the intensity grades of the earthquake; and (2) acquiring the attrition rate of the power network facilities on the basis of a Weibull service life distribution model according to the statistic data of the operation condition of the power network facilities. The method can accurately estimate the state and the service life of equipment after the earthquake, direct the reformation and the construction, furthest save the investment and ensure the safe, reliable and stable operation of an electric power system.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method of rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model assessment.
Background technology
Electrical network facilities as the electric system important component part plays an important role in electric energy transmitting and in distributing.Operating experience shows: the defective of earthquake rear section electrical network facilities can't expose at once, a lot of recessive defectives expose after a period of time obviously at facility operation, and these defectives are very big for system safety operation harm, therefore the facility for the normal operation in shake back carries out impaired assessment, and is significant.
Therefore, normally and by electric preventive trial do not find defective for outward appearance after standing violent earthquake yet, still especially need to carry out residual life evaluation at the electrical network facilities of adhering to moving, so that the state and the serviceable life of correct assessment shake back equipment, instruct post-earthquake power transformation and construction, reduce investment outlay to greatest extent, guarantee the reliable and stable operation of power system security.So need a kind of residual life of electrical network facilities after earthquake diagnostic method to overcome above-mentioned defective
Summary of the invention
The purpose of this invention is to provide a kind of rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method, can correctly assess the state and the serviceable life of shake back equipment, instruct post-earthquake power transformation and construction, thereby reduce investment outlay to greatest extent, guarantee the reliable and stable operation of power system security.
To achieve these goals, the invention provides a kind of residual life distribution life model diagnostic method of electrical network facilities after earthquake, comprise the steps: that (1) is slit into some zonules with whole assessment area by the seismic intensity ranking score; (2) based on Weibull distribution life model and obtain the damage rate of electrical network facilities according to the statistics of the electrical network facilities ruuning situation in the zonule of each different earthquake intensity grade.
In one embodiment of the invention, described step (2) is specially: set up the equipment Weibull distribution life model that meets three parameters, determine the ratio of defects function; By linear regression method described ratio of defects function is converted into linear equation; Collecting device ruuning situation, statistics, described data comprise number of defects in the special time period and the net cycle time in the described time period and the ratio of defects of determining according to described ratio of defects function and described number of defects, described net cycle time; Obtain the value of the form parameter of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE according to described statistics and described linear equation, determine the electrical network facilities damage rate according to the ratio of defects curve map of the value correspondence of described form parameter.
In another embodiment of the present invention, the residual life diagnostic method of described electrical network facilities after earthquake also comprises step: the life consumption degree of judging electrical network facilities according to the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE.
In another embodiment of the present invention, the value of described form parameter according to described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE judges that the step of the life consumption degree of electrical network facilities is specially: when the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE less than 1 the time, judge that electrical network facilities operates in earlier failure period, the life consumption degree of equipment is relatively stable; When the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE equals 1, judge that electrical network facilities operates in the accidental failure period, the life consumption degree of equipment is relatively low; When the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE greater than 1 the time, judge that electrical network facilities operates in wear-out failure period, the life consumption degree of equipment rises.
In another embodiment of the present invention, the ratio of defects curve map of described value correspondence according to described form parameter determines that the electrical network facilities damage rate is specially: two ratio of defects curve map determining BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE according to the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE; Obtain the annual difference of the corresponding same ratio of defects of described two ratio of defects curve map, obtain the damage rate of electrical network facilities according to described annual difference.
As shown from the above technical solution, residual life of electrical network facilities after earthquake diagnostic method of the present invention can correctly be assessed the state and the serviceable life of shake back equipment, instruct post-earthquake power transformation and construction, thereby reduce investment outlay to greatest extent, guarantee the reliable and stable operation of power system security.
By following description also in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, it is more clear that the present invention will become, and these accompanying drawings are used to explain embodiments of the invention.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is for obtaining the detail flowchart of the step of electrical network facilities damage rate based on Weibull distribution life model in the rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method shown in Figure 1.
Fig. 3 is for obtaining the ratio of defects synoptic diagram that the step of electrical network facilities damage rate is obtained according to shown in Figure 2 based on Weibull distribution life model.
Embodiment
With reference now to accompanying drawing, describe embodiments of the invention, the similar elements label is represented similar elements in the accompanying drawing.As mentioned above, rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method of the present invention can correctly be assessed the state and the serviceable life of shake back equipment, instructs post-earthquake power transformation and construction.To elaborate below.
As shown in Figure 1, the residual life diagnostic method of present embodiment electrical network facilities after earthquake comprises the following steps:
Step S101 is slit into some zonules with whole assessment area by the seismic intensity ranking score, carries out residual life evaluation with the electrical network facilities to the zonule of different earthquake earthquake intensity grade.Present embodiment selection earthquake intensity grade is that the electrical network facilities-transformer of the zonules of 7 degree carries out residual life evaluation.
Step S102 obtains the electrical network facilities damage rate based on Weibull distribution life model and according to the statistics of the electrical network facilities ruuning situation in the zonule of each different earthquake intensity grade.Particularly, with reference to figure 2, this step is specially:
Step S210, foundation meets the equipment Weibull distribution life model of three parameters, determines that (life-span of electrical network facilities is the stochastic variable of a continuous type to the ratio of defects function, and its value is greater than zero, meet Weibull and distribute, therefore select the Weibull function to set up the life-span distributed model).Described ratio of defects function is as follows:
Wherein, λ represents ratio of defects, t represents year, and Ft represents the defective number of times of electrical network facilities in certain period in the zonule of each different earthquake intensity grade, and St represents that electrical network facilities in the zonule of each different earthquake intensity grade is at the total run time of this section in the time.M is a form parameter, is the key parameter of decision ratio of defects function curve shape, can be used to the residing life consumption degree of statistics stage of determining apparatus.η is a scale parameter, the multiple that its size is characterized by ratio of defects function curve diagram horizontal ordinate, ordinate amplification or dwindles, and its variation does not influence ratio of defects function curve shape, so make η=1, the ratio of defects function can be reduced to:
Step S220, being taken the logarithm in ratio of defects function (2) both sides by linear regression method is converted into linear equation, carries out parameter with the Hough conversion and determines.
Particularly, use the one-variable linear regression method, being taken the logarithm in formula (2) both sides, to be converted into linear equation as follows:
lnλ(t)＝lnm+(m-1)lnt (3)
Order: Y=ln λ (t); X=lnt; A=lnm; B=m-1, then formula (3) is converted into Y=A+Bx.
Step S230, collecting device ruuning situation, statistics, described data comprise the defective number of times F of electrical network facilities in certain period in the zonule of each different earthquake intensity grade
tElectrical network facilities in the zonule of different earthquake intensity grades with each is at the total run time S of this section in the time
t, and the ratio of defects that draws by formula (1).
Collect the statistics of 22 110kV main-transformer ruuning situations that put into operation in 10 years in the somewhere in the present embodiment, seen the following form 2.
Table 2
Step S240, obtain the value of the form parameter m of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE according to described statistics and described linear equation (3), and then the life consumption degree of judgment device, determine the electrical network facilities damage rate according to the ratio of defects curve map of the value correspondence of the form parameter m of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE.
Wherein, the value of form parameter m is divided into following three kinds of situations.
When m＜1, the curve distribution that tapers off, equipment operation is the failure period in early days, and the life consumption degree of equipment is relatively stable, generally occurs in the earlier month or several years ago after equipment puts into operation earlier failure period.Inefficacy is normally owing to the defective of aspects such as design, manufacturing, assembling, material causes inefficacy.Be characterized in because these defectives come out after putting into operation very soon, thus when beginning ratio of defects very high, i.e. decline after after a while;
When m=1, curve is exponential distribution, and equipment operation is in the accidental failure period, and the life consumption degree of equipment is relatively low, and the accidental failure period claims random failure phase and operate as normal phase again, and this moment, equipment entered normal stable work area.Inefficacy is owing to some enchancement factors cause, for example safeguards that improper, operating mistake, environment are bad etc., also may be because due to the material, technologic defective.Be characterized in that ratio of defects is low and stable, almost be approximately constant, so unlikely needs take technical measures to reduce ratio of defects;
When m＞1, curve is and increases progressively distribution, and when m=3-4, curve and normal distribution shape approximation, equipment operation are at wear-out failure period, and the life consumption degree of equipment rises, and loss failure period, general device occurred after the operation of long period.Inefficacy is owing to reasons such as caused aging, fatigue of element, device interior generation physics or chemical change, wearing and tearing, finally causes element to enter the aging stage, progressively loses its due function.Be characterized in ratio of defects As time goes on and in rising trend, the measure that reduces ratio of defects is to carry out planned state maintenance, and in time changes or repair the parts with incipient fault.
In addition, the ratio of defects curve map of the value correspondence of described form parameter m according to BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE determines that the electrical network facilities damage rate is specially: two ratio of defects curve map determining BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE according to the value of the form parameter m of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE; Obtain the annual difference of the corresponding same ratio of defects of described two ratio of defects curve map, obtain the electrical network facilities damage rate according to described annual difference.
In the present embodiment,, draw the ratio of defects in the every year in 10 years, make Y=ln λ (t) in the formula (3) again defective number of times in the statistics of described table 2 and data substitution working time formula (2); X=lnt; A=lnm; B=m-1 then is converted into Y=A+Bx, determines the estimated value of A, B with least square method, and the estimated value of obtaining form parameter m then is 0.29, and drawing ratio of defects and time relation-ratio of defects function is λ (t)=0.29t
-0.71With curve among Fig. 3 2..
With defective number of times preceding 8 years in the table 2 and data substitution working time formula (2), calculate by above-mentioned same principle that ratio of defects and time relation-ratio of defects function are λ (t)=0.26t before the shake
-0.74With curve among Fig. 3 1..
Under the normal condition, consider that the mean lifetime of main-transformer was made as 20 years.As shown in Figure 3, ratio of defects function lambda (t)=0.26t of preceding 8 years of earthquake
-0.74, after the earthquake, the tendency of ratio of defects function curve changes, and original for 1. the curve that is tending towards constant begins perk, the latter half of curve is wear-out failure period translation forward, sees that curve is 2..Therefore lost 5 years serviceable life, will lose the time except that getting percent in mean lifetime, the damage rate that obtains is 25%.
Therefore, present embodiment rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method can correctly be assessed the state and the serviceable life of shake back equipment, instruct post-earthquake power transformation and construction, thereby reduce investment outlay to greatest extent, guarantee the reliable and stable operation of power system security, allow investment and return obtain optimum balance, be of great significance.
Above invention has been described in conjunction with most preferred embodiment, but the present invention is not limited to the embodiment of above announcement, and should contain various modification, equivalent combinations of carrying out according to essence of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method comprises the steps:
(1) whole assessment area is slit into some zonules by the seismic intensity ranking score;
(2) based on Weibull distribution life model and obtain the damage rate of electrical network facilities according to the statistics of the electrical network facilities ruuning situation in the zonule of each different earthquake intensity grade.
2. rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that, described step (2) is specially:
Foundation meets the equipment Weibull distribution life model of three parameters, determines the ratio of defects function;
By linear regression method described ratio of defects function is converted into linear equation;
Collecting device ruuning situation, statistics, described data comprise number of defects in the special time period and the net cycle time in the described time period and the ratio of defects of determining according to described ratio of defects function and described number of defects, described net cycle time; And
Obtain the value of the form parameter of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE according to described statistics and described linear equation, determine the electrical network facilities damage rate according to the ratio of defects curve map of the value correspondence of described form parameter.
3. rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method as claimed in claim 2 is characterized in that, also comprises:
Judge the life consumption degree of electrical network facilities according to the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE.
4. rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method as claimed in claim 3 is characterized in that, the value of described form parameter according to described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE judges that the step of the life consumption degree of electrical network facilities is specially:
When the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE less than 1 the time, judge that electrical network facilities operates in earlier failure period, the life consumption degree of equipment is relatively stable;
When the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE equals 1, judge that electrical network facilities operates in the accidental failure period, the life consumption degree of equipment is relatively low; And
When the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE greater than 1 the time, judge that electrical network facilities operates in wear-out failure period, the life consumption degree of equipment rises.
5. rest service life of power network facilities after earthquake by using service life distribution model diagnostic method as claimed in claim 2 is characterized in that, the ratio of defects curve map of described value correspondence according to described form parameter determines that the electrical network facilities damage rate is specially:
Determine two ratio of defects curve map of BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE according to the value of the form parameter of described BEFORE AND AFTER EARTHQUAKE; And
Obtain the annual difference of the corresponding same ratio of defects of described two ratio of defects curve map, obtain the damage rate of electrical network facilities according to described annual difference.
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Cited By (4)
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| CN102966196B (en) * | 2012-10-26 | 2017-02-08 | 青岛理工大学 | Anti-seismic safety assessment method of fortification-exceeding intensity earthquake of engineering structure |
| CN111258894A (en) * | 2020-01-13 | 2020-06-09 | 中信银行股份有限公司 | Software risk evaluation method and device, storage medium and electronic equipment |
| CN115829543A (en) * | 2022-11-24 | 2023-03-21 | 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司 | Method for determining effectiveness of preventive test of power equipment based on fault detection-required interval |
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102966196B (en) * | 2012-10-26 | 2017-02-08 | 青岛理工大学 | Anti-seismic safety assessment method of fortification-exceeding intensity earthquake of engineering structure |
| CN103729693A (en) * | 2013-12-23 | 2014-04-16 | 清华大学 | Maintenance and spare part supply combined optimization method based on deterministic inventory degradation model |
| CN111258894A (en) * | 2020-01-13 | 2020-06-09 | 中信银行股份有限公司 | Software risk evaluation method and device, storage medium and electronic equipment |
| CN111258894B (en) * | 2020-01-13 | 2023-08-08 | 中信银行股份有限公司 | Method and device for evaluating software risk, storage medium and electronic equipment |
| CN115829543A (en) * | 2022-11-24 | 2023-03-21 | 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司 | Method for determining effectiveness of preventive test of power equipment based on fault detection-required interval |
| CN115829543B (en) * | 2022-11-24 | 2023-08-29 | 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司 | Method for determining validity of preventive test of power equipment based on fault detection interval |
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Effective date of registration: 20121119 Address after: 430074 Hubei Province, Wuhan city Hongshan District Luoyu Road No. 143 Patentee after: Wuhan Nari Limited Liability Company of State Grid Electric Power Research Institute Patentee after: State Grid Corporation of China Address before: 430074 Hubei Province, Wuhan city Hongshan District Luoyu Road No. 143 Patentee before: Wuhan Nari Limited Liability Company of State Grid Electric Power Research Institute |