CN105354768A - Assessment method and system for electric transmission and transformation equipment states - Google Patents
Assessment method and system for electric transmission and transformation equipment states Download PDFInfo
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- CN105354768A CN105354768A CN201510853163.9A CN201510853163A CN105354768A CN 105354768 A CN105354768 A CN 105354768A CN 201510853163 A CN201510853163 A CN 201510853163A CN 105354768 A CN105354768 A CN 105354768A
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Abstract
The invention relates to an assessment method and system for electric transmission and transformation equipment states. The assessment method comprises the steps of collecting site data of N equipment state characteristics of the electric transmission and transformation equipment; separately calculating the cumulative probability of the N equipment state characteristics according to the site data and a corresponding cumulative distribution function obtained by pre-modeling; calculating a score-reducing value of the N equipment state characteristics according to the cumulative probability and a characteristic degradation score-reducing model corresponding to the cumulative distribution function; separately setting weights for the N equipment state characteristics; and obtaining a total score-reducing value of the electric transmission and transformation equipment according to the score-reducing value and the weights of the N equipment state characteristics, and assessing the states of the electric transmission and transformation equipment according to the total score-reducing value of the electric transmission and transformation equipment. The assessment method is simple, free of demand on the data size, capable of rapidly and accurately assessing the healthy condition of the electric transmission and transformation equipment, and relatively high in practicability.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power transmission and transformation system field, particularly relate to a kind of appraisal procedure and system of power transmission and transformation equipment state.
Background technology
Economic development be unable to do without electric power energy, and power transmission and transforming equipment is again the important component part of electrical network.Along with the development of national economy and electrical network, electrical network scale constantly expands on the one hand, and power transmission and transforming equipment quantity is increased sharply, and power supply reliability pressure improves; On the other hand, human resources seem short relatively, safeguard that the development of strength does not catch up with electrical network scale development.
At present, both at home and abroad to the judgement of the power transmission and transforming equipment general level of the health and operation conditions quality mainly or use for reference relevant criterion and expert and operating experience benchmark, realized by power failure preventive trial PT (PreventionTest) and prophylactic repair TBM (TimeBaseMaintenance), the overwhelming majority is all will carry out large repairs to official hour, may occur that the equipment good to health status does the work of unnecessary maintenance, and just stop transport maintenance or more exchange device are carried out to it when health problem not yet appears in equipment, waste manpower to a great extent, the resource such as material resources and financial resources.Therefore, how can determine the health status of power transmission and transforming equipment quickly and accurately, thus reduction manpower and materials cost becomes present power industry problem demanding prompt solution.
From current both at home and abroad research conditions, power transmission and transforming equipment deterioration appraisement system a lot of aspect that is scarcely out of swaddling-clothes is perfect not enough.Although some intelligent methods are also applied in the appraisement system of power transmission and transforming equipment by some scholars, as: expert system diagnosis method, fuzzy mathematics, neural network, genetic algorithm, Bayesian network, evidence theory, but these evaluation methods all more complicated, need larger data volume, and present available data volume is inadequate, this just causes every evaluation and test also to fail to be closely connected with actual, and practicality is not high.
Summary of the invention
Based on this, be necessary to provide appraisal procedure and the system of the power transmission and transformation equipment state that a kind of practicality is high.
An appraisal procedure for power transmission and transformation equipment state, comprising:
Gather the field data of N number of equipment state feature of power transmission and transforming equipment;
According to field data and the cumulative probability calculating N number of equipment state feature according to the corresponding cumulative distribution function that modeling in advance obtains respectively;
According to cumulative probability and deduct points model deteriorated with cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence, calculate the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature;
Respectively weight is arranged to N number of equipment state eigenwert;
The total penalties value of power transmission and transforming equipment is obtained, with the state of the total penalties value assessment power transmission and transforming equipment according to power transmission and transforming equipment according to the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, before gathering the step of the field data of N number of equipment state feature of power transmission and transforming equipment, also comprise the step of modeling in advance, modeling in advance comprises:
Obtain the historical data of N number of equipment state feature and pre-service is carried out to historical data;
Probability distribution function the historical data of N number of equipment state feature is adopted to carry out fitting of distribution to obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding with N number of equipment state feature respectively respectively.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, the historical data of N number of equipment state feature is adopted respectively probability distribution function carry out fitting of distribution with the step obtaining cumulative distribution function corresponding with N number of equipment state feature respectively after, also comprise step:
The deteriorated model of deducting points with N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence is set.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, the step arranging the deteriorated model of deducting points with N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence comprises:
According to cumulative probability respectively by the cumulative distribution function of correspondence by M-1 quantile be divided into M interval, and setting deduction of points value or deduction of points benchmark are arranged to obtain deducting points with the deterioration of cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence model to interval.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, obtain the total penalties value of power transmission and transforming equipment according to the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof, comprise with the step of the state of the total penalties value assessment power transmission and transforming equipment according to power transmission and transformation equipment state:
Be weighted superposition according to the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature and weight thereof, obtain the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state, wherein, weighted stacking formula is:
Wherein, G is the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state, w
ibe the weight of i-th equipment state feature, f
ix () is the deduction of points value of i-th equipment state feature;
According to the state of the total penalties value assessment apparatus of equipment state.
An evaluating system for power transmission and transformation equipment state, comprising:
Acquisition module, for gathering the field data of N number of equipment state feature of power transmission and transforming equipment;
Cumulative probability computing module, for according to field data and the cumulative probability calculating N number of equipment state feature according to the corresponding cumulative distribution function that modeling in advance obtains respectively;
Deduction of points value computing module, for according to cumulative probability and deduct points model deteriorated with cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence, calculates the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature;
Weight setting module, for arranging weight respectively to N number of equipment state eigenwert;
Evaluation module, for obtaining the total penalties value of power transmission and transforming equipment according to the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof, with the state of the total penalties value assessment power transmission and transforming equipment according to power transmission and transforming equipment.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, also comprise: MBM, build module and comprise:
Data processing unit, for obtaining the historical data of N number of equipment state feature and carrying out pre-service to historical data;
Modeling unit, carries out fitting of distribution to obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding with N number of equipment state feature respectively for the historical data of N number of equipment state feature being adopted respectively probability distribution function.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, also comprise deduction of points model and module is set, for arranging the deteriorated model of deducting points with N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, deduction of points simulator module, specifically for according to cumulative probability respectively by the cumulative distribution function of correspondence by M-1 quantile be divided into M interval, and setting deduction of points value or deduction of points benchmark are arranged to obtain deducting points with the deterioration of cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence model to interval.
Wherein in a kind of embodiment, evaluation module comprises:
Total penalties value computing unit, for being weighted superposition according to the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature and weight thereof, obtain the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state, wherein, weighted stacking formula is:
Wherein, G is the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state, w
ibe the weight of i-th equipment state feature, f
ix () is the deduction of points value of i-th equipment state feature;
Assessment unit, for the state of the total penalties value assessment apparatus according to equipment state.
The appraisal procedure of this power transmission and transformation equipment state, by gathering the field data of power transmission and transforming equipment, utilize the cumulative distribution function that obtains of modeling presetting and set up and cumulative distribution function and the deteriorated model of deducting points of feature carry out calculating equipment state total penalties value and according to the state of total penalties value assessment apparatus, this appraisal procedure is simple, to data volume no requirement (NR), the health status of power transmission and transforming equipment can be assessed fast and accurately, there is higher practicality.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is a kind of process flow diagram of appraisal procedure of power transmission and transformation equipment state of embodiment;
Fig. 2 is a kind of process flow diagram of appraisal procedure of power transmission and transformation equipment state of embodiment;
Fig. 3 is a kind of process flow diagram obtaining the method for cumulative distribution function of embodiment;
Fig. 4 is that a kind of deduction of points value according to equipment state feature of embodiment and weight are with the process flow diagram of the method for the state of assessment apparatus;
Fig. 5 is a kind of high-level schematic functional block diagram of evaluating system of power transmission and transformation equipment state of embodiment;
Fig. 6 is the high-level schematic functional block diagram of the evaluating system of the power transmission and transformation equipment state of another kind of embodiment.
Embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of appraisal procedure of power transmission and transformation equipment state comprises the following steps:
S30: the field data gathering N number of equipment state feature of power transmission and transforming equipment.
Equipment state feature is used for the state of characterization device, and per unit equipment state feature may have multiple.Such as, the equipment state feature characterizing cable deterioration has partial discharge quantity and dielectric loss factor.
S40: according to field data and the cumulative probability calculating N number of equipment state feature according to the corresponding cumulative distribution function that modeling in advance obtains respectively.
Concrete, the field data of each equipment state feature is brought in the cumulative distribution function of the correspondence that modeling in advance obtains into the cumulative probability calculating each equipment state feature respectively.
S50: according to cumulative probability and deduct points model deteriorated with cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence, calculate the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature.
Concrete, each cumulative distribution function, to there being the feature deterioration deduction of points model preset and arrange, calculates the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature according to the cumulative probability of each equipment state feature obtained and corresponding cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence deterioration deduction of points model.
S60: respectively weight is arranged to N number of equipment state eigenwert.
Concrete, the important procedure according to equipment state feature arranges weight to equipment state feature.
S70: the total penalties value obtaining power transmission and transforming equipment according to the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof, with the state of the total penalties value assessment power transmission and transforming equipment according to power transmission and transforming equipment.
Concrete, obtain the total penalties value of power transmission and transforming equipment according to the weight of each equipment state feature and deduction of points value thereof, according to the state of the total penalties value assessment power transmission and transforming equipment of power transmission and transforming equipment.
The appraisal procedure of this power transmission and transformation equipment state is by gathering the field data of power transmission and transforming equipment, utilize the cumulative distribution function that obtains of modeling presetting and set up and carry out calculating the total penalties value of equipment state with cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence deterioration model of deducting points and assess the state of power transmission and transforming equipment according to total penalties value, this appraisal procedure is simple, to data volume no requirement (NR), the health status of power transmission and transforming equipment can be assessed fast and accurately, there is higher practicality.
In another embodiment, as shown in Figure 2, also step is comprised:
S10: modeling in advance.
Concrete, as shown in Figure 3, step S10 comprises:
S11: obtain the historical data of N number of equipment state feature and pre-service is carried out to historical data.
Concrete, first, should determine its equipment state feature according to each equipment, the equipment state feature of each equipment may have N number of, and N is positive integer.Such as, in a concrete embodiment, known by Field Research, the characteristic parameter characterizing cable deterioration mainly contains partial discharge quantity and dielectric loss factor.Therefore, select oscillating wave voltage be under U0 (8.7kV) level shelf depreciation value and dielectric loss factor two equipment state features as the characteristic quantity of cable machinery.
Secondly, the data of the N number of equipment state feature determined are obtained.
Other system that historical data is run by power transmission and transformation obtains.To assess cable status, the cable obtaining somewhere all age group detects all historical datas accumulating and obtain in 4 years in the past in certain wave of oscillation detection platform.In present embodiment, collect the value of partial discharge quantity and the data of dielectric loss factor.
Finally, pre-service is carried out to the data of the N number of equipment state feature obtained.
Pre-service object removes the unreasonable data of acquisition.
S12: the historical data of N number of equipment state feature adopted probability distribution function to carry out fitting of distribution to obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding with N number of equipment state feature respectively respectively.
Present embodiment is characterized as example with I (i=1 ~ N) individual equipment state and is described.
Adopt probability distribution function to carry out the probability density function that fitting of distribution obtains its correspondence to I the equipment state feature that step S11 obtains, and obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding to I equipment state feature according to the probability density function that matching obtains.
Concrete, probability distribution function adopts standardized normal distribution, lognormal distribution, exponential distribution and Weibull distribution.Cable local discharge amount is characterized as I equipment state, first, cable local discharge data are drawn histogram frequency distribution diagram in MATLAB, and adopt standardized normal distribution, lognormal distribution respectively, the probability distribution function of exponential distribution and Weibull distribution carries out fitting of distribution, obtain four probability density functions of Partial Discharge Data, these four probability density functions are carried out chi-square goodness of fit test, obtain the probability density function of fitting effect the best, ask corresponding cumulative distribution function according to this probability density function:
Wherein, the probability density function of I the equipment state feature that p (x) obtains for matching, f
px () is corresponding cumulative distribution function.
In another embodiment, as shown in Figure 2, after step slo, also step is comprised:
S20: the deteriorated model of deducting points with N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence is set.
Concrete, step S20 is specially: according to cumulative probability respectively by the cumulative distribution function of correspondence by M-1 quantile be divided into M interval, and setting deduction of points value or deduction of points benchmark are arranged to obtain deducting points with the deterioration of cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence model to interval.
In one embodiment, if cumulative distribution function is f
px () (x is the value of characteristic quantity, f
px the span of () is [0,1]), f (x) is the score value that should detain, and cumulative probability is mapped as continuous print and should deducts points value.By the cumulative probability (value is [0,1]) of the cumulative distribution function obtained by M-1 quantile b
1to b
n-1be divided into M interval, each interval arranges a deduction of points benchmark y
i(i ∈ [0, n]) is continuous print for deduction of points value each interval:
f(x)＝y
if
p(x)。
In a concrete embodiment, be characterized as partial discharge quantity for equipment state, by the cumulative probability f that its cumulative distribution function obtains
px () (value is [0,1]) is divided into 3 intervals by 0.5 and 0.85 two quantile, to be 10, second interval deduction of points benchmark be that the 40, three interval deduction of points benchmark is 70 for first interval deduction of points benchmark, can obtain thus:
Wherein, f (x) is deduction of points value when partial discharge quantity is x, f
px () is the value of cumulative distribution function when partial discharge quantity is x, thus obtain the piecewise continuous deduction of points model between partial discharge quantity and cumulative probability.
Accordingly, step S50 is when utilizing above-mentioned cumulative distribution function and the deteriorated model of deducting points of feature calculates the deduction of points value of each equipment state, for each equipment state feature, by corresponding interval corresponding for the cumulative probability of each equipment state feature, obtain deduction of points value according to the formulae discovery of correspondence.
Implement in embodiment at another kind, by the cumulative probability (value is [0,1]) of the cumulative distribution function obtained by M-1 quantile a
1to a
n-1be divided into M interval, this M interval represents equipment respectively and is in different states, the deduction of points value x that the setting of each interval is different
i.
Such as, be characterized as partial discharge quantity for equipment state, by cumulative distribution function f
px () (value is [0,1]) is divided into 3 intervals by 0.4 and 0.9 two quantile, wherein the partial discharge quantity of quantile 0.4 and quantile 0.9 correspondence is respectively 131Pc and 386Pc.Be in different cable health status corresponding to the value of three interval partial discharge quantities and different deduction of points values is respectively:
Interval [0,0.4] is expressed as health status: represent that this characteristic quantity does not have obvious degradation phenomena, when being in this state, and deduction of points 10;
Interval [0.4,0.9] is expressed as sub-health state: represent that this characteristic quantity is in the hole, although also do not have the problem causing equipment now, needs to arouse attention, deducts points 30 when being in this state;
Interval [0.9,1] is expressed as abnormality: represent that this quantity of state is deteriorated, therefore the reliability of equipment work can be subject to obvious impact, and deducting points when being in this state is 50.
Accordingly, step S60 is when utilizing above-mentioned cumulative distribution function and the deteriorated model of deducting points of feature calculates the deduction of points value of each equipment state, for each equipment state feature, by corresponding interval corresponding for the cumulative probability of each equipment state feature, obtain the deduction of points value of this equipment state feature.
In another embodiment, the weight of each equipment state feature can pre-set the significance level that equipment state characterizes according to equipment state feature.Such as, the equipment state feature characterizing cable deterioration has partial discharge quantity and dielectric loss factor, and from the investigation at scene, these two features have equal status for valuator device state, and therefore, the weight of each characteristic quantity is set to 0.5.
Concrete, as shown in Figure 4, step S70 comprises:
S71: be weighted superposition according to the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature and weight thereof, obtain the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state.
Wherein, weighted stacking formula is:
Wherein, G is the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state, w
ibe the weight of i-th equipment state feature, f
ix () is the deduction of points value of i-th equipment state feature.
S72: according to the state of the total penalties value assessment apparatus of equipment state.
The appraisal procedure of this power transmission and transformation equipment state, the data volume of use is fewer, and the restriction by data volume is smaller, and the genetic algorithm larger relative to data volume has very large advantage, also can assess the health status of power transmission and transforming equipment fast and accurately.Adopt the appraisal procedure of this power transmission and transforming equipment, the Condition evaluation of equipment can be obtained in the short period of time thus determine that this equipment is the need of maintenance or replacing, effectively decreases number of times and the cost of overhaul of the equipments, has saved manpower and materials and financial resources greatly.
The present invention also provides a kind of evaluating system of power transmission and transformation equipment state, as shown in Figure 5, comprising:
Acquisition module 10, for gathering the field data of N number of equipment state feature of power transmission and transforming equipment.
Equipment state feature is used for the state of characterization device, and per unit equipment state feature may have multiple.Such as, the equipment state feature characterizing cable deterioration has partial discharge quantity and dielectric loss factor.
Cumulative probability computing module 20, for according to field data and the cumulative probability calculating N number of equipment state feature according to the corresponding cumulative distribution function that modeling in advance obtains respectively.
Concrete, the field data of each equipment state feature is brought in the cumulative distribution function of the correspondence that modeling in advance obtains into the cumulative probability calculating each equipment state feature respectively.
Deduction of points value computing module 30, for according to cumulative probability and deduct points model deteriorated with cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence, calculates the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature.
Concrete, each cumulative distribution function, to there being the feature deterioration deduction of points model preset and arrange, calculates the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature according to the cumulative probability of each equipment state feature obtained and corresponding cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence deterioration deduction of points model.
Weight setting module 40, for arranging weight respectively to N number of equipment state eigenwert.
Concrete, the important procedure according to equipment state feature arranges weight to equipment state feature.
Evaluation module 50, for obtaining the total penalties value of power transmission and transforming equipment according to the deduction of points value of N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof, with the state of the total penalties value assessment power transmission and transforming equipment according to power transmission and transforming equipment.
Concrete, obtain the total penalties value of power transmission and transforming equipment according to the weight of each equipment state feature and deduction of points value thereof, according to the state of the total penalties value assessment power transmission and transforming equipment of power transmission and transforming equipment.
The evaluating system of this power transmission and transformation equipment state is by gathering the field data of power transmission and transforming equipment, utilize the cumulative distribution function that obtains of modeling presetting and set up and carry out calculating the total penalties value of equipment state with cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence deterioration model of deducting points and assess the state of power transmission and transforming equipment according to total penalties value, this evaluating system is simple, to data volume no requirement (NR), the health status of power transmission and transforming equipment can be assessed fast and accurately, there is higher practicality.
In another embodiment, as shown in Figure 6, the evaluating system of power transmission and transformation equipment state also comprises:
MBM 60, specifically comprises:
Data processing unit, for obtaining the historical data of N number of equipment state feature and carrying out pre-service to historical data.
Concrete, first, should determine its equipment state feature according to each equipment, the equipment state feature of each equipment may have N number of, and N is positive integer.Such as, in a concrete embodiment, known by Field Research, the characteristic parameter characterizing cable deterioration mainly contains partial discharge quantity and dielectric loss factor.Therefore, select oscillating wave voltage be under U0 (8.7kV) level shelf depreciation value and dielectric loss factor two equipment state features as the characteristic quantity of cable machinery.
Secondly, the data of the N number of equipment state feature determined are obtained.
Other system that historical data is run by power transmission and transformation obtains.To assess cable status, the cable obtaining somewhere all age group detects all historical datas accumulating and obtain in 4 years in the past in certain wave of oscillation detection platform.In present embodiment, collect the value of partial discharge quantity and the data of dielectric loss factor.
Finally, pre-service is carried out to the data of the N number of equipment state feature obtained.
Pre-service object removes the unreasonable data of acquisition.
Modeling unit, carries out fitting of distribution to obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding with N number of equipment state feature respectively for the historical data of N number of equipment state feature being adopted respectively probability distribution function.
Present embodiment is characterized as example with I (i=1 ~ N) individual equipment state and is described.
Adopt probability distribution function to carry out the probability density function that fitting of distribution obtains its correspondence to I the equipment state feature obtained, and obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding to I equipment state feature according to the probability density function that matching obtains.
Concrete, probability distribution function adopts standardized normal distribution, lognormal distribution, exponential distribution and Weibull distribution.Cable local discharge amount is characterized as I equipment state, first, cable local discharge data are drawn histogram frequency distribution diagram in MATLAB, and adopt standardized normal distribution, lognormal distribution respectively, the probability distribution function of exponential distribution and Weibull distribution carries out fitting of distribution, obtain four probability density functions of Partial Discharge Data, these four probability density functions are carried out chi-square goodness of fit test, obtain the probability density function of fitting effect the best, ask corresponding cumulative distribution function according to this probability density function:
Wherein, the probability density function of I the equipment state feature that p (x) obtains for matching, f
px () is corresponding cumulative distribution function.
In another embodiment, also comprise: deduction of points model arranges module 70, for arranging the deteriorated model of deducting points with N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence.
Concrete, deduction of points simulator module 70, specifically for according to cumulative probability respectively by the cumulative distribution function of correspondence by M-1 quantile be divided into M interval, and setting deduction of points value or deduction of points benchmark are arranged to obtain deducting points with the deterioration of cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence model to interval.
In one embodiment, if cumulative distribution function is f
px () (x is the value of characteristic quantity, f
px the span of () is [0,1]), f (x) is the score value that should detain, and cumulative probability is mapped as continuous print and should deducts points value.By the cumulative probability (value is [0,1]) of the cumulative distribution function obtained by M-1 quantile b
1to b
n-1be divided into M interval, each interval arranges a deduction of points benchmark y
i(i ∈ [0, n]) is continuous print for deduction of points value each interval:
f(x)＝y
if
p(x)。
In a concrete embodiment, be characterized as partial discharge quantity for equipment state, by the cumulative probability f that its cumulative distribution function obtains
px () (value is [0,1]) is divided into 3 intervals by 0.5 and 0.85 two quantile, to be 10, second interval deduction of points benchmark be that the 40, three interval deduction of points benchmark is 70 for first interval deduction of points benchmark, can obtain thus:
Wherein, f (x) is deduction of points value when partial discharge quantity is x, f
px () is the value of cumulative distribution function when partial discharge quantity is x, thus obtain the piecewise continuous deduction of points model between partial discharge quantity and cumulative probability.
Accordingly, when utilizing above-mentioned cumulative distribution function and the deteriorated model of deducting points of feature calculates the deduction of points value of each equipment state, for each equipment state feature, by corresponding interval corresponding for the cumulative probability of each equipment state feature, obtain deduction of points value according to the formulae discovery of correspondence.
Implement in embodiment at another kind, by the cumulative probability (value is [0,1]) of the cumulative distribution function obtained by M-1 quantile a
1to a
n-1be divided into M interval, this M interval represents equipment respectively and is in different states, the deduction of points value x that the setting of each interval is different
i.
Such as, be characterized as partial discharge quantity for equipment state, by cumulative distribution function f
px () (value is [0,1]) is divided into 3 intervals by 0.4 and 0.9 two quantile, wherein the partial discharge quantity of quantile 0.4 and quantile 0.9 correspondence is respectively 131Pc and 386Pc.Be in different cable health status corresponding to the value of three interval partial discharge quantities and different deduction of points values is respectively:
Interval [0,0.4] is expressed as health status: represent that this characteristic quantity does not have obvious degradation phenomena, when being in this state, and deduction of points 10;
Interval [0.4,0.9] is expressed as sub-health state: represent that this characteristic quantity is in the hole, although also do not have the problem causing equipment now, needs to arouse attention, deducts points 30 when being in this state;
Interval [0.9,1] is expressed as abnormality: represent that this quantity of state is deteriorated, therefore the reliability of equipment work can be subject to obvious impact, and deducting points when being in this state is 50.
Accordingly, step S60 is when utilizing above-mentioned cumulative distribution function and the deteriorated model of deducting points of feature calculates the deduction of points value of each equipment state, for each equipment state feature, by corresponding interval corresponding for the cumulative probability of each equipment state feature, obtain the deduction of points value of this equipment state feature.
In another embodiment, the weight of each equipment state feature can pre-set the significance level that equipment state characterizes according to equipment state feature.Such as, the equipment state feature characterizing cable deterioration has partial discharge quantity and dielectric loss factor, and from the investigation at scene, these two features have equal status for valuator device state, and therefore, the weight of each characteristic quantity is set to 0.5.
In another embodiment, evaluation module 70 comprises:
Total penalties value computing unit, for being weighted superposition according to the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature and weight thereof, obtain the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state, wherein, weighted stacking formula is:
Wherein, G is the total penalties value of power transmission and transformation equipment state, w
ibe the weight of i-th equipment state feature, f
ix () is the deduction of points value of i-th equipment state feature;
Assessment unit, for the state of the total penalties value assessment apparatus according to equipment state.
The evaluating system of this power transmission and transformation equipment state, the data volume of use is fewer, and the restriction by data volume is smaller, and the genetic algorithm larger relative to data volume has very large advantage, also can assess the health status of power transmission and transforming equipment fast and accurately.Adopt the evaluating system of this power transmission and transforming equipment, the Condition evaluation of equipment can be obtained in the short period of time thus determine that this equipment is the need of maintenance or replacing, effectively decreases number of times and the cost of overhaul of the equipments, has saved manpower and materials and financial resources greatly.
Each technical characteristic of the above embodiment can combine arbitrarily, for making description succinct, the all possible combination of each technical characteristic in above-described embodiment is not all described, but, as long as the combination of these technical characteristics does not exist contradiction, be all considered to be the scope that this instructions is recorded.
The above embodiment only have expressed several embodiment of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but can not therefore be construed as limiting the scope of the patent.It should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with claims.
Claims (10)
1. an appraisal procedure for power transmission and transformation equipment state, is characterized in that, comprising:
Gather the field data of N number of equipment state feature of power transmission and transforming equipment;
According to described field data and the cumulative probability calculating described N number of equipment state feature according to the corresponding cumulative distribution function that modeling in advance obtains respectively;
According to described cumulative probability and deduct points model deteriorated with described cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence, calculate the deduction of points value of described N number of equipment state feature;
Respectively weight is arranged to described N number of equipment state eigenwert;
The total penalties value of described power transmission and transforming equipment is obtained, to assess the state of described power transmission and transforming equipment according to the total penalties value of described power transmission and transforming equipment according to the deduction of points value of described N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof.
2. the appraisal procedure of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 1, is characterized in that, before the step of the field data of N number of equipment state feature of described collection power transmission and transforming equipment, also comprise the step of modeling in advance, described modeling in advance comprises:
Obtain the historical data of described N number of equipment state feature and pre-service is carried out to described historical data;
Probability distribution function the historical data of described N number of equipment state feature is adopted to carry out fitting of distribution to obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding with described N number of equipment state feature respectively respectively.
3. the appraisal procedure of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 2, it is characterized in that, the described historical data by described N number of equipment state feature adopt respectively probability distribution function carry out fitting of distribution with the step obtaining cumulative distribution function corresponding with described N number of equipment state feature respectively after, also comprise step:
Deduct points model deteriorated with described N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence is set.
4. the appraisal procedure of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 3, is characterized in that, the step of described setting and the deteriorated model of deducting points of described N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence comprises:
According to described cumulative probability respectively by the described cumulative distribution function of correspondence by M-1 quantile be divided into M interval, and setting deduction of points value or deduction of points benchmark are arranged to obtain deducting points with described cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence deterioration model to described interval.
5. the appraisal procedure of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the described deduction of points value according to described N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof obtain the total penalties value of described power transmission and transforming equipment, comprise with the step assessing the state of described power transmission and transforming equipment according to the total penalties value of described power transmission and transformation equipment state:
Be weighted superposition according to the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature and weight thereof, obtain the total penalties value of described power transmission and transformation equipment state, wherein, weighted stacking formula is:
Wherein, G is the total penalties value of described power transmission and transformation equipment state, w
ibe the weight of i-th equipment state feature, f
ix () is the deduction of points value of i-th equipment state feature;
The state of described equipment is assessed according to the total penalties value of described equipment state.
6. an evaluating system for power transmission and transformation equipment state, is characterized in that, comprising:
Acquisition module, for gathering the field data of N number of equipment state feature of power transmission and transforming equipment;
Cumulative probability computing module, for according to described field data and the cumulative probability calculating described N number of equipment state feature according to the corresponding cumulative distribution function that modeling in advance obtains respectively;
Deduction of points value computing module, for according to described cumulative probability and deduct points model deteriorated with described cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence, calculates the deduction of points value of described N number of equipment state feature;
Weight setting module, for arranging weight respectively to described N number of equipment state eigenwert;
Evaluation module, for obtaining the total penalties value of described power transmission and transforming equipment according to the deduction of points value of described N number of equipment state feature and weight thereof, to assess the state of described power transmission and transforming equipment according to the total penalties value of described power transmission and transforming equipment.
7. the evaluating system of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 6, is characterized in that, also comprises: MBM, described in build module and comprise:
Data processing unit, for obtaining the historical data of described N number of equipment state feature and carrying out pre-service to described historical data;
Modeling unit, carries out fitting of distribution to obtain cumulative distribution function corresponding with described N number of equipment state feature respectively for the historical data of described N number of equipment state feature being adopted respectively probability distribution function.
8. the evaluating system of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 7, is characterized in that, also comprises
Deduction of points model arranges module, for arranging deduct points model deteriorated with described N number of equipment state feature characteristic of correspondence.
9. the evaluating system of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 8, it is characterized in that, described deduction of points simulator module, specifically for according to described cumulative probability respectively by the described cumulative distribution function of correspondence by M-1 quantile be divided into M interval, and setting deduction of points value or deduction of points benchmark are arranged to obtain deducting points with described cumulative distribution function characteristic of correspondence deterioration model to described interval.
10. the evaluating system of power transmission and transformation equipment state according to claim 6, is characterized in that, described evaluation module comprises:
Total penalties value computing unit, for being weighted superposition according to the deduction of points value of each equipment state feature and weight thereof, obtain the total penalties value of described power transmission and transformation equipment state, wherein, weighted stacking formula is:
Wherein, G is the total penalties value of described power transmission and transformation equipment state, w
ibe the weight of i-th equipment state feature, f
ix () is the deduction of points value of i-th equipment state feature;
Assessment unit, for assessing the state of described equipment according to the total penalties value of described equipment state.
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| CN106570644A (en) * | 2016-11-04 | 2017-04-19 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Power transmission and transformation equipment quantization evaluation method based on statistical tool |
| CN108009514A (en) * | 2017-12-14 | 2018-05-08 | 太原理工大学 | Level of material for ball mill Forecasting Methodology |
| CN108304349A (en) * | 2018-02-13 | 2018-07-20 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment characteristic parameter discretization method |
| CN109272599A (en) * | 2018-09-03 | 2019-01-25 | 深圳市智物联网络有限公司 | A kind of data processing method and relevant device |
| WO2019140553A1 (en) * | 2018-01-16 | 2019-07-25 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Method and device for determining health index of power distribution system and computer storage medium |
| CN111077876A (en) * | 2019-12-11 | 2020-04-28 | 湖南大唐先一科技有限公司 | Power station equipment state intelligent evaluation and early warning method, device and system |
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN106570644A (en) * | 2016-11-04 | 2017-04-19 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Power transmission and transformation equipment quantization evaluation method based on statistical tool |
| CN106570644B (en) * | 2016-11-04 | 2020-05-05 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment |
| CN108009514A (en) * | 2017-12-14 | 2018-05-08 | 太原理工大学 | Level of material for ball mill Forecasting Methodology |
| CN108009514B (en) * | 2017-12-14 | 2022-04-12 | 太原理工大学 | Material level prediction method for ball mill |
| WO2019140553A1 (en) * | 2018-01-16 | 2019-07-25 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | Method and device for determining health index of power distribution system and computer storage medium |
| CN108304349A (en) * | 2018-02-13 | 2018-07-20 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment characteristic parameter discretization method |
| CN109272599A (en) * | 2018-09-03 | 2019-01-25 | 深圳市智物联网络有限公司 | A kind of data processing method and relevant device |
| CN111077876A (en) * | 2019-12-11 | 2020-04-28 | 湖南大唐先一科技有限公司 | Power station equipment state intelligent evaluation and early warning method, device and system |
| CN115545477A (en) * | 2022-10-08 | 2022-12-30 | 广东电力交易中心有限责任公司 | Power transmission line blocking risk probability assessment method and product based on incremental interpolation |
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