CN106570644A - Power transmission and transformation equipment quantization evaluation method based on statistical tool - Google Patents

Power transmission and transformation equipment quantization evaluation method based on statistical tool Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN106570644A
CN106570644A CN201610978459.8A CN201610978459A CN106570644A CN 106570644 A CN106570644 A CN 106570644A CN 201610978459 A CN201610978459 A CN 201610978459A CN 106570644 A CN106570644 A CN 106570644A
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
power transmission
transforming equipment
health
hif
equipment
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Granted
Application number
CN201610978459.8A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Other versions
CN106570644B (en
Inventor
王建
辜超
朱文兵
朱孟兆
杜修明
周加斌
白德盟
马艳
李�杰
张振军
彭飞
陈玉峰
吴奎华
朱振华
杨勇
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
Original Assignee
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by State Grid Corp of China SGCC, Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd filed Critical State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Priority to CN201610978459.8A priority Critical patent/CN106570644B/en
Publication of CN106570644A publication Critical patent/CN106570644A/en
Application granted granted Critical
Publication of CN106570644B publication Critical patent/CN106570644B/en
Active legal-status Critical Current
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical

Links

Classifications

    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/20Administration of product repair or maintenance
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply

Abstract

The invention discloses a power transmission and transformation equipment quantization evaluation method based on a statistical tool. The method comprises the following steps of establishing a quantization index system of power transmission and transformation equipment, wherein a power transmission and transformation equipment health state evaluation factor includes an evaluation factor of Oil-immersed power transmission and transformation equipment and evaluation factors of other power transmission and transformation equipment; collecting historical state data and current state data of the power transmission and transformation equipment; using a statistical tool SPSS to carry out test data normal processing on the collected data, carrying out preprocessing on an abnormal value and reserving an overtop abnormal value which exceeds a range and is generated because of a power transmission and transformation equipment fault reason; through a public coefficient analysis method, determining relevance of each variable in the collected data; through a public factor correlation analysis method, acquiring a contribution value of each evaluation index during total health condition evaluation of the power transmission and transformation equipment; establishing a power transmission and transformation equipment health index evaluation model, calculating a power transmission and transformation equipment health index, and according to the health index, evaluating the total health condition of the power transmission and transformation equipment. In the invention, a total health state of a transformer can be comprehensively evaluated.

Description

A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool
Technical field
The present invention relates to power transmission and transformation equipment state security technology area, and in particular to a kind of power transmission and transformation based on statistical tool Equipment quantitative estimation method.
Background technology
It is annual because the direct, indirect expense produced by scheduled outage maintenance is digital huge, its social influence is even more and is difficult to Weigh.For the defect of the power transmission and transforming equipment that accurately and efficiently finds to put into operation, fault rate is reduced, reduce operation risk, at present, state The inside and outside mode for taking repair based on condition of component.This maintenance mode relies on power equipment health status and risk science, comprehensively Ground evaluation index system and computational methods.Therefore, it is week power transmission and transforming equipment life-cycle for power transmission and transforming equipment health Evaluation Important link in phase assessment.
There is research using a certain parameter of equipment as principal character amount, the insulated aging life-span of power transmission and transforming equipment is commented Estimate, but, the characteristic parameter for reflecting defeated power transmission and transforming equipment health status is to be related to many-sided multivariable index system, using list Parameter is estimated the accurate evaluation that cannot comprehensively realize to power transmission and transforming equipment health status.
At present, the determination of each index weights, generally according to expertise or technical standard, does not carry out depth to index relation Enter research.Artificial subjective factorss are larger, cause there is larger error to the assessment of power transmission and transforming equipment health status then.
The content of the invention
To solve the deficiency that prior art is present, the invention discloses a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment based on statistical tool quantifies Appraisal procedure, the purpose of the present invention is to set up Quantization Index System, using statistical tool SPSS (statistical product And service solutions), between each parameter of research power transmission and transforming equipment on the basis of relation, show that public parameter is closed Connection degree and the contribution margin to health index, are finally determined quantization weight and are referred to based on the health of Contribution Analysis using statistical method Number evaluation model, improves power transmission and transforming equipment forecasting accuracy, it is ensured that the reliable and stable operation of power transmission and transforming equipment.
For achieving the above object, concrete scheme of the invention is as follows:
A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool, comprises the following steps:
The Quantization Index System of power transmission and transforming equipment is set up, wherein, power transmission and transforming equipment health status evaluation factor is specifically included The factor of evaluation of oil immersed type power transmission and transforming equipment and the factor of evaluation of other power transmission and transforming equipments;
The historical state data and current status data of collection power transmission and transforming equipment;
Pretreatment is carried out to exceptional value to the process of test data normal stateization to the data for gathering using statistical tool SPSS, Retain the off-limits too high exceptional value that power transmission and transforming equipment failure cause is produced;
By common coefficient analyze method to determine gathered data in each variable relatedness;
By common factor correlation analysis method, show that each evaluation index is evaluating power transmission and transforming equipment general health When contribution margin;
Power transmission and transforming equipment health index evaluation model is set up, power transmission and transforming equipment health index is calculated, is commented according to health index Valency power transmission and transforming equipment holistic health.
Further, the historical state data of the electric power power transmission and transforming equipment includes the fortune inspection number of electric power power transmission and transforming equipment According to, family's defect, equipment essential information, load data, the current status data of electric power power transmission and transforming equipment includes the defeated change of electric power The routine test data of electric equipment.
Further, the method analyzed by common coefficient to determine gathered data in each variable relatedness when, it is first First determine there be the non-quantization factor and common factor of certain impact on test result, common factor is got over the correlation degree of each variable High coefficient value is bigger, and the correlation degree between common factor is mutual.
Further, common factor correlation analysis method specifically, is drawn public between multivariate using statistical tool Correlate degree analysis chart, show that relation and each evaluation index between each parameter are evaluating power transmission and transforming equipment totality according to the figure Contribution margin during health status.
Further, power transmission and transforming equipment health index calculation procedure is mainly as follows:
1) on the basis of common factor correlation analysis, contribution margin of the common factor to health index is analyzed;
2) weight of each health indicator is determined;
3) specified according to expertise and standard, formulate modifying factor;
4) by weight through modifying factor amendment;
5) health index is drawn, power transmission and transforming equipment holistic health is evaluated.
Further, oil immersed type power transmission and transforming equipment carries out layering assessment, computing formula according to different parts to health status It is as follows:
Other power transmission and transforming equipments carry out layering assessment, computing formula such as formula (2) to health status according to different parts:
In formula, KiFor weight, HIFiFor health index, HIFmaxFor health status it is optimal when corresponding health index.
Further, the factor of evaluation of oil immersed type power transmission and transforming equipment includes:Solution gas in the paper insulation degree of polymerization, furfural, oil Body, moisture, acid number, breakdown voltage, oil loss factor, infrared measurement of temperature, defective data, load histories, visual examination, equipment It is essential information and routine test, sleeve pipe-outward appearance, sleeve pipe-infrared measurement of temperature, sleeve pipe-oil dissolved gas, sleeve pipe-insulation resistance, cold But system-tour record, shunting switch-tour record, shunting switch-service data, shunting switch-acting characteristic, tap are opened Decomposition gas and non-ionizing energy loss-tour record in pass-oil.
Further, the factor of evaluation of other power transmission and transforming equipments in power transmission and transforming equipment health status evaluation factor includes: Infrared measurement of temperature, defective data, load histories, visual examination, essential information and routine test and non-ionizing energy loss-tour record.
Further, defective data includes equipment itself and family's defect two parts, defect record should include operational inspection, The defect found in maintenance tour, live detection, maintenance process, fault grading and defect elimination disposition.
Further, equipment essential information mainly includes power transmission and transforming equipment name plate information, electric pressure, capacity, short circuit resistance It is anti-;Routine test includes winding D.C. resistance, winding dielectric dissipation factor, capacitance, frequency response test, winding insulation electricity Resistance, absorptance or polarization index and leakage current.
Further, power transmission and transforming equipment health status classification is carried out according to health index:
Health index 85~100, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Situation is splendid;
Health index 70~85, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Situation is good;
Health index 50~70, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Well;
Health index 30~50, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:It is poor;
Health index 0~30, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Deterioration is serious.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
The present invention considers transformator history and current status data, including essential information, routine test, O&M number According to.
The present invention adopts statistical tool, based on test data, for relation and each parameter between each parameter of transformator Contribution margin to total health indicator, is analyzed research, derives each index weights, provides the calculating process of health index.
The present invention sets up power transformer index system and starts with from layering, and then by using statistical tool SPSS, to 87 Group transformer oil sample test data is analyzed, and have studied the relation and each parameter between each factor to total health index Contribution margin.Index system can be realized weighting using statistical tool SPSS, set up health indicator computation model.Future can grind this Study carefully and be extended to power transmission and transforming equipment evaluation field popularization and application.
Health index assessment models expanded application based on SPSS analyses adopts SPSS in power transmission and transforming equipment to various kinds of equipment It is analyzed, gives weight, and carries out comprehensively its health status of layering point index evaluation.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 common factor correlation analysis figures;
Health index evaluation models of the Fig. 2 based on Contribution Analysis;
Fig. 3 power transmission and transforming equipment health status evaluations.
Specific embodiment:
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings the present invention is described in detail:
The present invention is set up based on the power transmission and transforming equipment general health assessment models of health index, and the model is to power transmission and transformation Equipment layering, sub-unit carry out many reference amounts statistical analysiss, and for historical data, (fortune inspection data, family's defect, equipment is believed substantially Breath, load) and two aspects of as-is data (routine test data), and different parts, set up Quantization Index System.Proposition is adopted It is each in research power transmission and transforming equipment with statistical tool SPSS (statistical product and service solutions) Between parameter on the basis of relation, the public parameter degree of association and the contribution margin to health index are drawn, finally using statistical method Determine quantization weight and the health index evaluation model based on Contribution Analysis.Finally, with the transformation of Shandong Power actual motion As a example by device, demonstrate the effectiveness based on health index power transmission and transformation equipment state assessment models, be power transmission and transformation equipment state evaluation, Maintenance provides scientific basis.
In order to study electric power power transmission and transforming equipment health status, it is necessary first to set up index system.Reflection power transmission and transforming equipment is good for The characteristic quantity of health state includes electrology characteristic, chemical characteristic, mechanical property and outward appearance presentation.It is divided into body, set from part aspect Pipe, shunting switch, cooling system and non-ionizing energy loss, each several part proportion in evaluation calculates anti-by final health index Mirror and.
First, Oil-Paper Insulation test
Because oilpaper is under electric, hot service condition, and with oxygen, water function excessive in environment, degrade, can By the aging material of generation of degrading in test oil (such as CO, CO2, furfural etc.) and the paper insulation degree of polymerization, weigh transformator health Situation.
(1) the paper insulation degree of polymerization
The degree of polymerization reflects the tensile strength mechanical property of paper, and with new diseases, degree of polymerization criterion also can constantly more Newly.At present, it is believed that the new paper insulated degree of polymerization of transformator is mostly 1000 or so.The paper insulation degree of polymerization criterion such as institute of table 1 Show.
The paper insulation degree of polymerization limit value of table 1
(2) furfural
In cardboard deterioration process, after cellulose macromolecule degraded, a kind of main oxygen helerocyclics for just being formed.Defeated change Electric equipment running, affecting the factor of furfural content has many aspects, including oilpaper ratio and the manufacturing process of itself, defeated change Electric equipment run time, service condition, load factor, transformer's oil-treatment mode.It is old to there is insulation hot-spot in power transmission and transforming equipment The failures such as change, overload can also cause furfural content to raise., by transformer oil sampled measurements, content is low, shows defeated for furfural content Converting equipment oilpaper intensity is high, and performance is good, and power transmission and transforming equipment integral status are good.
(3) oil dissolved gas
Oil dissolved gas are a kind of wide variety of malfunction monitoring and preventive means.Power transmission and transforming equipment oil and paper oil insulation There is the change of molecular structure in system, through series of chemical various features gas is produced under electric heating stress long term Body, such as hydrogen, Hydrocarbon, hydro carbons.
Development certain methods, can be used to differentiating the ratio of oil dissolved gas to judge power transformer interior fault Such as:Overheated, bad electrical contact, shelf depreciation etc..CO/CO2< 5, shows oilpaper fast degradation.CO2During/CO > 7, show insulation Aging or large area cryogenic overheating failure.Certainly, when power transmission and transforming equipment breaks down, transformer oil can also decomposite CO, CO2 Gas.Either the deterioration of power transmission and transforming equipment oilpaper or failure, can all be attributed to power transmission and transforming equipment health status, therefore, it is comprehensive Consider CO, CO2
2nd, operation/maintenance data and routine test
Equipment essential information mainly includes transformator name plate information, electric pressure, capacity, short-circuit impedance etc..Routine test Including winding D.C. resistance, winding dielectric dissipation factor, capacitance, frequency response test, winding insulation resistance, absorptance or pole Change index, leakage current etc., if meet technical stipulation requirement.
(1) defective data
Including equipment itself and family's defect two parts.Defect record should be maked an inspection tour comprising operational inspection, maintenance, band electric-examination The defect found in survey, maintenance process, fault grading and defect elimination disposition.
(2) load histories
In nearly 12 months, the maximum load value for monthly recording transships or long-term emergent overload operating provisions equipment, can make Transformer performance is deteriorated.
(3) infrared measurement of temperature
Infrared thermal imagery can detect transformer body, pigtail splice, cable termination, and Infrared Thermogram shows should be as good as room temperature Liter, the temperature difference and/or relative temperature difference, can disclose inside transformer hidden danger.
(4) visual examination
Main to be recorded by consulting tour, equipment appearance is intact, foreign;Just whether lead and bus-bar, joint Often;Whether ground connection is reliable;Noise and vibration;Whether unobstructed foreign in air channel etc..
Three multivariate analyses based on statistical tool
(1) data normal state
The important assumed condition of multivariate analyses is that data belong to normal distribution.Result of the test is usual and off-gauge normal state Distribution, but there is the degree of deviation to some extent.First, by SPSS instruments, nonnormal data is carried out using transformation tool Normal stateization process.SPSS is a kind of data statistic analysis instrument, is easy to data to dock, with built-in VBA language, powerful statistics Processing function.After processing test data normal stateization using SPSS, there is off-limits too high exceptional value in initial data, Can be ignored in multivariate analyses, need to carry out exceptional value pretreatment, retain the exception that power transmission and transforming equipment failure cause is produced Value.
(2) common coefficient analysis
The result of a few class power transmission and transforming equipment test events, it is understood that there may be unknown relatedness, is analyzed by common coefficient Method is determining the relatedness of each variable.SPSS instruments are utilized herein, statistical analysiss are carried out to multiple test result, draw not With contacting between test event and impact of the public influence factor to each project.
Square frame represents test result in Fig. 1, and e1~e12 represents the non-quantization factor for having certain impact on test result, example Such as ambient temperature and humidity, electromagnetic environment interference, test error etc..C1~C5 be common factor, their correlation degrees with each variable Higher, coefficient value is bigger.Correlation degree between C1~C5 is mutual, is represented with four-headed arrow.
(3) common factor correlation analysis
In electric power power transmission and transforming equipment health status are evaluated, the performance condition of Oil-Paper Insulation be most important index it One.Generally, the life-span of Oil-Paper Insulation directly determine the oil-filled transformer life-span.Therefore, herein mainly for 87 groups of changes Depressor oil sample test data, carries out statistical analysiss, and the relation between each parameter is have studied first, secondly, draws each evaluation index Contribution margin when power transmission and transforming equipment general health is evaluated.Common factor correlation analysis are shown in Fig. 1 between multivariate.
As shown in figure 1, with close property or the material with the generation of same chemical reaction, being divided into one group.Electricity, Under hot service condition, when the oilpaper aging or transformator of degraded breaks down, decomposition gas CO, CO in oil2Typically together and Raw chemical product;Transformator well cuts, moisture are higher, more easily puncture, the big parameter of this impact relation, divide For same group.H2、CH4、C2H6It is the parameter of one group of highlights correlations, it is related to common factor C3.
Positive association degree is most strong between C2 and C3, is 0.53;The degree of association of C1 and C3 is taken second place, and coefficient of association is 0.47;C4 with It is then negatively correlated relation between C5.Relation analyses between each characteristic parameter and common factor, to further determine that ginseng Amount weight and health index are laid a good foundation.
4th, power transmission and transforming equipment health index evaluation model
Set up the health index model based on SPSS analyses;The process of setting up of the model includes:
Based on the multivariate analyses of statistical tool, nonnormal data is carried out into normal state process using transformation tool;
Using SPSS instruments, statistical analysiss are carried out to multiple test result, draw contact between different test events and Impact of the public influence factor to each project;
Power transmission and transforming equipment health index calculation procedure is mainly as follows:
1) on the basis of common factor relation analyses, contribution margin of the common factor to health index HI is analyzed;
2) each health indicator weight is further determined;
3) specified according to expertise and standard, formulate modifying factor;
4) by weight through modifying factor amendment;
5) health index is drawn, power transmission and transforming equipment holistic health is evaluated.
Wherein, the first step is crucial step, and based on the health index evaluation model of Contribution Analysis Fig. 2 is seen.
As shown in Fig. 2 impacts of the C4 to health index is maximum, including breakdown voltage, furfural, moisture these three ginsengs Amount, therefore, give highest weighting to it in appraisement system.Power transmission and transforming equipment water content in oil is in transformer insulated deterioration in characteristics mistake Journey, has played important function.Furfural content to a certain degree reflects the performance of power transmission and transforming equipment Oil-Paper Insulation, and furfural content is got over Height, then show that insulating properties are poorer.The packet and weight drawn by statistical analysiss is basically identical with existing conclusion.To defeated change During electric equipment health status evaluation, weight distribution is also needed further using correction factor, be corrected for, evaluation procedure is more pasted Nearly production scene reality.Finally, the weight and health index HIF of each main project are obtained.
Oil immersed type power transmission and transforming equipment carries out layering assessment, computing formula such as formula (1) to health status according to different parts.
Other power transmission and transforming equipments carry out layering assessment, computing formula such as formula (2) to health status according to different parts.
In formula, KiFor weight, HIFiFor health index, HIFmaxFor health status it is optimal when corresponding health index.
The health index of table 2 is classified
The transformator health status evaluation factor weight of table 3 and score value
Other the power transmission and transforming equipment health status evaluation factor weights of table 4 and score value
More detailed examples of implementation:
The main transformer device of 110kV Zhenyangs station 2, specifications and models are SZ10-50000/110, and electric pressure is 220kV, and capacity is 50MVA, the type of cooling is self cooling, and Shandong Luneng MountTaielectric Equipment Co., Ltd's production, in April, 2008 puts into operation, and 22 have been run Year, scrap the time limit 30 years.
No. 2 main transformer devices of 220kV Bao Dou transformer stations, specifications and models are SFPSZ9-150000/220, and electric pressure is 220kV, Capacity is 150MVA, and Shandong Power Equipment Co., Ltd.'s production, in December, 2002 puts into operation, run 14 years, scraps the time limit 30 years. The operation of two transformators and test data are shown in Table 5.
Sequence number (1) the correspondence main transformer data of Zhenyang station 2, using formula (1), calculate 110kV Zhenyangs station 2 in table 4 Number transformator HIF% is 49.182, and interval positioned at 30%~50%, overall operation situation is poor, is close to or only slight beyond standard Limit value, should monitor operation, and interruption maintenance is arranged in good time.The equipment actual state:Hydrogen is exceeded serious, and accounts for hydrogen hydrocarbon total amount More than 90%, total hydrocarbon is exceeded, CH4Total hydrocarbon more than 75% is accounted for, characteristic gas criterion is judged as shelf depreciation.Three-ratio method is encoded to 010, it is judged as shelf depreciation.High-pressure side neutral bushing dielectric loss is exceeded, the close warning value of capacitance, and main transformer routine test is just Often.To sum up, the outfit of equipment operation conditions is poor, and be close to scrap the time limit.It follows that the meter that this paper health index methods draw Calculation value is coincide substantially with actual state.
For comprehensive verification model validation, different electric pressures are chosen, different operating modes and the 220kV with different defects are precious All station owner's transformators, wherein sequence number (2) is its essential information and test data.Compared with example 1, though equally there is defect, Both properties are different, and test data also differs larger, and it is 78.052 to be calculated HIF through model, and model result shows this Equipment operation condition is good.Actual operating state:The transformer station high-voltage side bus 14 years, indices are normal, without bad condition, though There is subcooler aspect major defect, eliminate, current normal operation.Evaluation result and actual state, coincide preferable.
The transformer station high-voltage side bus of table 5 and test data
Additionally, the concordance more preferably to verify the model evaluation, chooses the different electric parameters of Shandong Power 12 and defect The 110kV transformators of property, each transformator health index HIF is shown in Fig. 3.
In result of calculation, minima is 54.346, and maximum is 78.326, and in 50%~70% interval 25% is accounted for, 70%~85% interval, 75% is accounted for, in order, distinct transformer will due to family's defect or annual test overhaul for overall operation Expire, health index is low, be consistent substantially with practical situation.By from the Shandong Power selection multiple stage difference operation phase and electrically Parameter, the transformator of different evaluation state, is calculated and compared, and verifies the effectiveness of evaluation model and computational methods.
Although the above-mentioned accompanying drawing that combines is described to the specific embodiment of the present invention, not to present invention protection model The restriction enclosed, one of ordinary skill in the art should be understood that on the basis of technical scheme those skilled in the art are not Need the various modifications made by paying creative work or deformation still within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool, is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:
The Quantization Index System of power transmission and transforming equipment is set up, wherein, power transmission and transforming equipment health status evaluation factor specifically includes oil immersion The factor of evaluation of formula power transmission and transforming equipment and the factor of evaluation of other power transmission and transforming equipments;
The historical state data and current status data of collection power transmission and transforming equipment;
Pretreatment is carried out to exceptional value to the process of test data normal stateization to the data for gathering using statistical tool SPSS, is retained The off-limits too high exceptional value that power transmission and transforming equipment failure cause is produced;
By common coefficient analyze method to determine gathered data in each variable relatedness;
By common factor correlation analysis method, draw each evaluation index when evaluating power transmission and transforming equipment general health Contribution margin;
Power transmission and transforming equipment health index evaluation model is set up, power transmission and transforming equipment health index is calculated, evaluates defeated according to health index Converting equipment holistic health.
2. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described The historical state data of electric power power transmission and transforming equipment includes fortune inspection data, family's defect of electric power power transmission and transforming equipment, and equipment is believed substantially Breath, load data, the current status data of electric power power transmission and transforming equipment includes the routine test data of electric power power transmission and transforming equipment.
3. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, pass through Common coefficient analysis method to determine gathered data in each variable relatedness when, it is first determined have one to test result Be fixed the non-quantization factor and common factor of sound, common factor is bigger with the higher coefficient value of the correlation degree of each variable, it is public because Correlation degree between element is mutual.
4. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, public Correlate degree analysis method specifically, using statistical tool common factor correlation analysis figure between multivariate is drawn, according to The figure draws the contribution margin of the relation between each parameter and each evaluation index when power transmission and transforming equipment general health is evaluated.
5. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, defeated change Electric equipment health index calculation procedure is mainly as follows:
1) on the basis of common factor correlation analysis, contribution margin of the common factor to health index is analyzed;
2) weight of each health indicator is determined;
3) specified according to expertise and standard, formulate modifying factor;
4) by weight through modifying factor amendment;
5) health index is drawn, power transmission and transforming equipment holistic health is evaluated.
6. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 5, is characterized in that, oil immersion Formula power transmission and transforming equipment carries out layering assessment according to different parts to health status, and computing formula is as follows:
( % ) H I = 0.5 Σ i = 1 i = 12 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 1 i = 12 ( HIF max * K i ) + 0.2 Σ i = 13 i = 16 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 13 i = 16 ( HIF max * K i ) + 0.1 Σ i = 17 i = 17 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 17 i = 17 ( HIF max * K i ) + 0.1 Σ i = 18 i = 21 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 18 i = 21 ( HIF max * K i ) + 0.1 Σ i = 22 i = 22 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 22 i = 22 ( HIF max * K i ) * 100 % - - - ( 1 )
Other power transmission and transforming equipments carry out layering assessment, computing formula such as formula (2) to health status according to different parts:
( % ) H I = 0.2 Σ i = 1 i = 1 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 1 i = 1 ( HIF max * K i ) + 0.2 Σ i = 2 i = 3 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 2 i = 3 ( HIF max * K i ) + 0.1 Σ i = 3 i = 4 ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 3 i = 4 ( HIF max * K i ) + 0.5 Σ i = 5 i = b ( K i * HIF i ) Σ i = 5 i = 6 ( HIF max * K i ) * 100 %
In formula, KiFor weight, HIFiFor health index, HIFmaxFor health status it is optimal when corresponding health index.
7. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, oil immersion The factor of evaluation of formula power transmission and transforming equipment includes:The paper insulation degree of polymerization, furfural, oil dissolved gas, moisture, acid number, breakdown voltage, Oil loss factor, infrared measurement of temperature, defective data, load histories, visual examination, equipment essential information and routine test, set Pipe-outward appearance, sleeve pipe-infrared measurement of temperature, sleeve pipe-oil dissolved gas, sleeve pipe-insulation resistance, cooling system-tour record, tap Switch-make an inspection tour decomposition gas and non-electrical in record, shunting switch-service data, shunting switch-acting characteristic, shunting switch-oil Amount protection-make an inspection tour record;
The factor of evaluation of other power transmission and transforming equipments in power transmission and transforming equipment health status evaluation factor includes:Infrared measurement of temperature, defect Data, load histories, visual examination, essential information and routine test and non-ionizing energy loss-tour record.
8. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that, defect Data include equipment itself and family's defect two parts, and defect record should be comprising operational inspection, maintenance tour, live detection, inspection The defect found during repairing, fault grading and defect elimination disposition.
9. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, equipment Essential information mainly includes power transmission and transforming equipment name plate information, electric pressure, capacity, short-circuit impedance;Routine test includes that winding is straight Leakage resistance, winding dielectric dissipation factor, capacitance, frequency response test, winding insulation resistance, absorptance or polarization index and let out Leakage current.
10. a kind of power transmission and transforming equipment quantitative estimation method based on statistical tool as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, root Power transmission and transforming equipment health status classification is carried out according to health index:
Health index 85~100, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Situation is splendid;
Health index 70~85, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Situation is good;
Health index 50~70, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Well;
Health index 30~50, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:It is poor;
Health index 0~30, power transmission and transforming equipment health status:Deterioration is serious.
CN201610978459.8A 2016-11-04 2016-11-04 Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment Active CN106570644B (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201610978459.8A CN106570644B (en) 2016-11-04 2016-11-04 Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201610978459.8A CN106570644B (en) 2016-11-04 2016-11-04 Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment

Publications (2)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN106570644A true CN106570644A (en) 2017-04-19
CN106570644B CN106570644B (en) 2020-05-05

Family

ID=58540063

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN201610978459.8A Active CN106570644B (en) 2016-11-04 2016-11-04 Statistical tool-based quantitative evaluation method for power transmission and transformation equipment

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN106570644B (en)

Cited By (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107730079A (en) * 2017-09-15 2018-02-23 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment defect portrait method based on data mining
CN109507553A (en) * 2018-12-04 2019-03-22 武汉大学 A kind of new gas dielectric application feasibility three dimensionality evaluation project
CN110442898A (en) * 2019-06-14 2019-11-12 广东电网有限责任公司江门供电局 A kind of electric power pylon health status model method for on-line optimization
CN111289812A (en) * 2018-12-07 2020-06-16 国网浙江省电力有限公司 Power transmission and transformation equipment state monitoring and management method and system
CN113177294A (en) * 2021-04-06 2021-07-27 国网湖北省电力有限公司检修公司 Data joint analysis method applied to transformer oiliness detection test

Citations (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
EP1886392B1 (en) * 2005-06-02 2012-01-11 Siemens Aktiengesellschaft Method for avoiding undesired, measurement error-induced protective tripping within a protection system of an hvdc transmission system
CN105139294A (en) * 2015-09-23 2015-12-09 国网山西省电力公司大同供电公司 Power transmission and transformation device state evaluation method based on electrification detection
CN105184664A (en) * 2015-07-31 2015-12-23 国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院 Three-dimensional state evaluation and maintenance strategy of electric transmission and transformation equipment
CN105260814A (en) * 2015-09-15 2016-01-20 国家电网公司 Power transmission and transformation equipment evaluation model and processing method based on big data
CN105354768A (en) * 2015-11-27 2016-02-24 广州供电局有限公司 Assessment method and system for electric transmission and transformation equipment states
CN105404936A (en) * 2015-11-24 2016-03-16 中国电力科学研究院 Method for evaluating health index of distribution transformer
CN106446426A (en) * 2016-09-29 2017-02-22 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 Health index based power transformer evaluation method

Patent Citations (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
EP1886392B1 (en) * 2005-06-02 2012-01-11 Siemens Aktiengesellschaft Method for avoiding undesired, measurement error-induced protective tripping within a protection system of an hvdc transmission system
CN105184664A (en) * 2015-07-31 2015-12-23 国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院 Three-dimensional state evaluation and maintenance strategy of electric transmission and transformation equipment
CN105260814A (en) * 2015-09-15 2016-01-20 国家电网公司 Power transmission and transformation equipment evaluation model and processing method based on big data
CN105139294A (en) * 2015-09-23 2015-12-09 国网山西省电力公司大同供电公司 Power transmission and transformation device state evaluation method based on electrification detection
CN105404936A (en) * 2015-11-24 2016-03-16 中国电力科学研究院 Method for evaluating health index of distribution transformer
CN105354768A (en) * 2015-11-27 2016-02-24 广州供电局有限公司 Assessment method and system for electric transmission and transformation equipment states
CN106446426A (en) * 2016-09-29 2017-02-22 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 Health index based power transformer evaluation method

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
于婧洋: "配网设备状态评价与风险评估模型的探索研究", 《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库 工程科技Ⅱ辑》 *

Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN107730079A (en) * 2017-09-15 2018-02-23 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of power transmission and transforming equipment defect portrait method based on data mining
CN109507553A (en) * 2018-12-04 2019-03-22 武汉大学 A kind of new gas dielectric application feasibility three dimensionality evaluation project
CN109507553B (en) * 2018-12-04 2021-07-20 武汉大学 Novel three-dimensional evaluation scheme for application feasibility of gas insulation medium
CN111289812A (en) * 2018-12-07 2020-06-16 国网浙江省电力有限公司 Power transmission and transformation equipment state monitoring and management method and system
CN110442898A (en) * 2019-06-14 2019-11-12 广东电网有限责任公司江门供电局 A kind of electric power pylon health status model method for on-line optimization
CN110442898B (en) * 2019-06-14 2023-06-09 广东电网有限责任公司江门供电局 Power transmission line health condition model online optimization method
CN113177294A (en) * 2021-04-06 2021-07-27 国网湖北省电力有限公司检修公司 Data joint analysis method applied to transformer oiliness detection test

Also Published As

Publication number Publication date
CN106570644B (en) 2020-05-05

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
CN106446426B (en) A kind of power transformer appraisal procedure based on health index
CN106570644A (en) Power transmission and transformation equipment quantization evaluation method based on statistical tool
CN110297167B (en) Transformer aging state evaluation method based on multi-source information fusion
CN101408580B (en) Method for evaluating oil paper insulation ageing state based on local discharge characteristic parameter
Kim et al. Fault diagnosis of a power transformer using an improved frequency-response analysis
CN106908674A (en) A kind of Transformer condition evaluation based on the prediction of multimode amount
CN104764985B (en) One kind is based on parameter identification estimation Oil-Paper Insulation low frequency dielectric loss method
CN102621421A (en) Transformer state evaluation method based on correlation analysis and variable weight coefficients
CN103605881A (en) Fault tree and analytic hierarchy process based evaluation method of state of power transformer
CN103576050A (en) Operating state assessment method of capacitor voltage transformer
Idrees et al. Fuzzy logic based calculation and analysis of health index for power transformer installed in grid stations
CN108508337A (en) Dielectric analysis method for assessing XLPE cable insulation ag(e)ing state
CN104914364A (en) Capacitance oilpaper transformer sleeve insulation state assessment method
CN107247204B (en) State monitoring system and monitoring method for voltage limiters in ultra-high and extra-high voltage series compensation device
CN107886171A (en) A kind of circuit-breaker status inline diagnosis method and system based on PMU data
Abu-Elanien et al. Survey on the transformer condition monitoring
CN108344917A (en) The cross interconnected cable on-line fault diagnosis method of 110kV crosslinked polyethylenes based on method of loci
CN112924817A (en) Power distribution network fault accurate positioning method based on deep neural network
CN113704968A (en) Method and device for evaluating insulation aging of oil-immersed distribution transformer
CN116990621B (en) Dynamic fault monitoring system for electric power safety tools
CN103761577A (en) Capacitive type device auxiliary decision making system based on risk assessment and condition evaluation
CN116840614A (en) Cable line defect sensing and early warning method based on harmonic fluctuation characteristics
CN111025098B (en) Cable insulation aging degree judging method based on leakage current time domain variation factor
Tippannavar et al. Smart Transformer-An Analysis of Recent Technologies for Monitoring Transformer
CN112965011A (en) Power transformer state evaluation method and device

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
GR01 Patent grant
GR01 Patent grant