CN115829543A - Method for determining effectiveness of preventive test of power equipment based on fault detection-required interval - Google Patents
Method for determining effectiveness of preventive test of power equipment based on fault detection-required interval Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application relates to a method for determining effectiveness of a preventive test of electrical equipment based on a fault section needing to be detected. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring power equipment operating parameters corresponding to power equipment of the same type in a power system; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the power equipment according to the description information of the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period into the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of faults occurring within a preset time period. By adopting the method, the accuracy of the result obtained by the preventive test of the power equipment can be improved.
Description
Technical Field
The present application relates to the field of electrical power security technologies, and in particular, to a method and an apparatus for determining validity of a preventive test of an electrical power device based on a fault detection-required interval, a computer device, a storage medium, and a computer program product.
Background
With the development of the electric power safety technology, an operation and maintenance technology for electric power equipment appears, and the core of the application of the technology is a preventive test, aiming at finding the hidden danger of the equipment in operation, preventing accidents or equipment damage, and checking, testing or monitoring the equipment. As an important component of power equipment management work, it is intended to check whether or not an electrical equipment is in a good condition during long-term operation, grasp the condition of the electrical equipment, and find out a latent fault in the electrical equipment. At present, a regular preventive test is an important means for finding out hidden troubles of faults in advance and improving the reliability of power supply.
The period of the preventive test has great influence on whether the hidden trouble can be found, and the effectiveness of the preventive test is determined by finding the hidden trouble in advance. However, in the conventional processing method for the effectiveness of the preventive test of the power equipment, the intrinsic parameters of each equipment in the power system are collected and calculated through the parameters and the corresponding mathematical model, however, each parameter in the power equipment is a fixed value of the departure time period, for example: the resistance, however, changes during operation due to aging of the equipment, resulting in poor accuracy of results obtained from preventive tests.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, it is necessary to provide a method, an apparatus, a computer device, a computer readable storage medium, and a computer program product for determining validity of a preventive test of an electric power device based on a fault detection required interval, which can improve accuracy of a result obtained by the preventive test.
In a first aspect, the application provides a method for determining effectiveness of a preventive test of electrical equipment based on a fault section needing to be detected. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring power equipment operation parameters corresponding to power equipment of the same type in a power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one of the power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
In a second aspect, the application further provides a device for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the power equipment based on the fault detection required interval. The device comprises: the electric equipment operating parameter acquisition module is used for acquiring electric equipment operating parameters corresponding to the same type of electric equipment in the electric power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; the power equipment loss distribution function obtaining module is used for obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one piece of power equipment according to the operation time and the retirement time of each piece of power equipment; the fault detection-required time interval determining module is used for determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment; a preventive test cycle obtaining module, configured to obtain a preventive test cycle corresponding to the power device according to the power device operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; a preventive test fault information obtaining module, configured to input the fault detection required time interval and the preventive test period to the power equipment loss distribution function, so as to obtain preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
In a third aspect, the present application also provides a computer device. The computer device comprises a memory storing a computer program and a processor implementing the following steps when executing the computer program: acquiring power equipment operating parameters corresponding to power equipment of the same type in a power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one of the power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information which respectively correspond to the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
In a fourth aspect, the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium. The computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the steps of: acquiring power equipment operating parameters corresponding to power equipment of the same type in a power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
In a fifth aspect, the present application further provides a computer program product. The computer program product comprising a computer program which when executed by a processor performs the steps of: acquiring power equipment operating parameters corresponding to power equipment of the same type in a power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one of the power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
According to the method, the device, the computer equipment, the storage medium and the computer program product for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the power equipment based on the fault section to be detected, the power equipment operation parameters corresponding to the power equipment of the same type in the power system are obtained; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the power equipment according to the description information of the power equipment; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period into the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
The method comprises the steps of establishing a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the service life of the power equipment and a period of a preventive test, determining the probability of finding a fault hidden danger in advance in the preventive test, using the probability of the fault hidden danger for analyzing the effectiveness of the preventive test, further guiding the operation and maintenance work arrangement of the power equipment, adjusting the detection work arrangement of the preventive test, and improving the accuracy of a result obtained by the preventive test of the power equipment.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is an application environment diagram of a method for determining effectiveness of a preventive test of an electrical device based on a fault section to be detected in one embodiment;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a method for determining effectiveness of a preventive test of an electrical device based on a fault section to be detected in one embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a method for determining a time interval to check for a fault according to an embodiment;
FIG. 4 is a schematic flow chart diagram illustrating a method for obtaining preventative test fault information in one embodiment;
FIG. 5 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for obtaining a failure probability of a first sub-preventive test according to an embodiment;
FIG. 6 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for obtaining a failure probability of a second sub-preventive test in one embodiment;
FIG. 7 is a schematic flow chart of a method for constructing a loss distribution function of an electric power device according to an embodiment;
fig. 8 is a schematic diagram illustrating parameter settings in a method for determining validity of a preventive test of an electrical device based on a fault detection required interval in one embodiment;
fig. 9 is a block diagram illustrating a structure of a device for determining validity of a preventive test of an electrical device based on a fault detection required interval according to an embodiment;
fig. 10 is an internal structural diagram of a computer device in one embodiment.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.
The method for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the power equipment based on the fault section to be detected can be applied to the application environment shown in fig. 1. Wherein the terminal 102 communicates with the server 104 via a network. The data storage system may store data that the server 104 needs to process. The data storage system may be integrated on the server 104, or may be located on the cloud or other network server. The server 104 acquires the operating parameters of the electric power equipment corresponding to the same type of electric power equipment in the electric power system from the terminal 102; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the power equipment according to the description information of the power equipment; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period into the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation. The terminal 102 may be, but not limited to, various personal computers, notebook computers, smart phones, tablet computers, internet of things devices and portable wearable devices, and the internet of things devices may be smart speakers, smart televisions, smart air conditioners, smart car-mounted devices, and the like. The portable wearable device can be a smart watch, a smart bracelet, a head-mounted device, and the like. The server 104 may be implemented as a stand-alone server or a server cluster comprised of multiple servers.
In an embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, a method for determining effectiveness of a preventive test of an electrical device based on a fault detection required interval is provided, which is described by taking the method applied to the server in fig. 1 as an example, and includes the following steps:
Among them, the power equipment can be various elements for maintaining the normal operation of the power system, such as: generators, transmission towers, transformers, transmission lines, etc.
The power device operating parameter may be a message generated during the operation of the power device and an intrinsic parameter of the power device.
Specifically, the server responds to an instruction of the terminal, acquires power equipment operating parameters corresponding to each power equipment from the terminal, and stores the acquired power equipment operating parameters into the storage unit, wherein the power equipment operating parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment decommissioning time, power equipment description information, power equipment operating characteristic data and preventive test standard data. When the server needs to process any data record in the operating parameters of the power equipment, the data record is called to the volatile storage resource from the storage unit for the central processing unit to calculate. Any data record can be a single data input to the central processing unit, or a plurality of data can be simultaneously input to the central processing unit.
For example, the server 104 responds to the instruction of the terminal 102, acquires the operating parameters of the electrical devices corresponding to the electrical devices from the terminal 102, and stores the operating parameters into the storage unit in the server 104, where 10 data records acquired by the server 104 may be simultaneously input to the central processing unit for a plurality of data.
And 204, obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment.
The power equipment commissioning time may be a time corresponding to each power equipment in the power system being respectively commissioned to normal operation.
The retirement time of the power equipment may be a time corresponding to each power equipment in the power system being changed from normal operation to scrapping.
The power equipment loss distribution function may be a distribution function obtained by adding a parameter related to power to a two-parameter weibull distribution according to a service demand.
Specifically, the commissioning time and the decommissioning time of any type of electrical equipment in the power grid system are counted, the commissioning time of the electrical equipment is subtracted from the decommissioning time of the electrical equipment for any electrical equipment to obtain the electrical equipment life corresponding to each electrical equipment, the electrical equipment lives are arranged to obtain an electrical equipment life sequence t of the equipment corresponding to each electrical equipment i Sequence t of the life of the power equipment i Ordering from small to large, and calculating the rank sequence F (t) of the electric power equipment bits i ) The expression is:
where i represents the number of data, and n represents a total of how much data, for example: 43 failure time points, i.e. n =43. Computing an intermediate variable x from a median rank sequence i And y i The expressions are respectively as follows:
x i ＝ln(t i )，
according to the intermediate variable x i And y i Sequence of (1) calculation of x i And y i Average value of (2)
And
and second central moment l xx 、l yy 、l xy And calculate
And
the expressions are respectively:
according to
And
carrying out parameter estimation on parameters m and eta in a Weibull distribution expression, wherein the equation sets are respectively as follows:
according to
And
after parameter estimation is carried out on the parameters m and eta, the parameters are substitutedAnd obtaining the loss distribution function of the electric power equipment corresponding to any electric power equipment in the Weibull distribution expression.
And step 206, determining a fault detection time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information.
The power device description information may be an evaluation result obtained after the power device is evaluated.
The time interval of the fault detection requirement may be a time interval in which the fault of the power equipment may be detected.
Specifically, a plurality of experts are respectively extracted from a manufacturing plant and an electric power system of the electric power equipment to form an expert group, each expert in the expert group is independently evaluated to obtain description information of the electric power equipment (namely an evaluation result of the electric power equipment), the service life time of the electric power equipment is taken as the maximum value of a time interval needing to be checked for faults, a fault detection threshold constant is determined according to the description information of the electric power equipment, an arithmetic mean p of the fault detection threshold time is calculated through the fault detection threshold constant, the minimum value of the time interval needing to be checked for faults is determined based on the arithmetic mean of the fault detection threshold time, and the time interval needing to be checked for faults [ pt, t ] corresponding to the electric power equipment can be obtained. The power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment.
And 208, obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data.
The power equipment operation characteristic data may be data that is unique to a type of power equipment and can represent characteristics of the type of power equipment generated during operation of the same type of power equipment.
The preventive test standard data may be test standard data set according to different types of electric power equipment, and is used for performing a preventive test.
The preventive test period may be a period corresponding to a test in which the power equipment is checked, tested or monitored to prevent an accident or equipment damage.
Specifically, according to different types of electric power equipment, electric power equipment operation characteristic data corresponding to the type of electric power equipment is acquired from a message generated in the operation process of the electric power equipment, wherein the acquired electric power equipment operation characteristic data can be subjected to characteristic extraction by adopting an artificial intelligence model, and then are classified by using a classification function; and (3) combining with a national standard DL/T596-2021 power equipment preventive test rule, namely preventive test standard data, obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment, wherein the value of the preventive test period cannot be greater than the maximum value in a time interval in which the fault needs to be detected.
The preventive test fault information may be a probability that the power equipment fails within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
Specifically, the first step: calculating an arithmetic mean p of the fault detection threshold time through a fault detection threshold constant, and establishing a standard value of the number of preventive tests corresponding to the power equipment by using the arithmetic mean p of the fault detection threshold time, wherein the standard value of the number of preventive tests is established by an expression: p/(1-p).
The second step is that: if the number k of preventive tests completed by the electric power equipment is less than the preventive test number standard value P/(1-P), that is, only the time of 1 preventive test is in the fault detection required time interval, the fault detection required time interval and the preventive test period are input to the electric power equipment loss distribution function, one combination part P of the preventive test fault information (the probability that the preventive test finds the fault in advance) is obtained 1 The expression is:
P 1 ＝W(kT/p)-W(kT)
the third step: if the number k of preventive tests that the power equipment has completed is greater than the preventive test number criterion value p/(1-p), that is, there is 2When the time of the preventive test of the number of times or more is in the fault detection required time interval, the maximum integer (maximum value of the number of preventive tests) smaller than P/(1-P) is expressed as M, and the maximum integer value of the number of preventive tests and the preventive test period are input to the power equipment loss distribution function, one combination part P of the preventive test fault information (probability of finding fault in advance by the preventive test) is obtained 2 The expression is:
P 2 ＝1-W[(M+1)T]
the fourth step: and adding the first sub-preventive test fault probability and the second sub-preventive test fault probability to obtain preventive test fault information P corresponding to the power equipment, namely the probability of the power equipment having faults within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
In the method for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the power equipment based on the fault section to be detected, the operation parameters of the power equipment corresponding to the power equipment of the same type in the power system are obtained; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data; obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment; determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the power equipment according to the description information of the power equipment; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information which respectively correspond to the power equipment; obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data; inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period into the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
The method comprises the steps of establishing a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the service life of the power equipment and a period of a preventive test, determining the probability of finding a fault hidden danger in advance in the preventive test, using the probability of the fault hidden danger for analyzing the effectiveness of the preventive test, further guiding the operation and maintenance work arrangement of the power equipment, adjusting the detection work arrangement of the preventive test, and improving the accuracy of a result obtained by the preventive test of the power equipment.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 3, determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to an electrical device according to at least one piece of electrical device description information includes:
The power equipment manufacturing description information may be an evaluation result obtained after an expert sent by a manufacturer of the power equipment evaluates the power equipment.
The power equipment operation description information may be an evaluation result obtained after an expert issued by a service enterprise of the power equipment evaluates the power equipment.
The failure detection threshold constant may be a critical value corresponding to failure detection, and is usually represented by a constant, and the adjacent failure detection threshold constants may be obtained by integrating different evaluation results.
Specifically, a plurality of experts are extracted from a manufacturing plant of the power equipment and a power system respectively to form an expert group, and each expert in the expert group is evaluated independently. The method comprises the steps that an evaluation result obtained by evaluating an expert from a power equipment manufacturing plant is power equipment manufacturing description information, an evaluation result obtained by evaluating an expert from a power system is power equipment operation description information, the power equipment manufacturing description information and the power equipment operation description information are input into a power equipment fault detection threshold value generation model, and a power equipment corresponding fault detection threshold value constant can be obtained, wherein the power equipment fault detection threshold value generation model is a mathematical statistical model designed according to the same type of power equipment.
And 304, subtracting the commissioning time of the power equipment from the decommissioning time of the power equipment to obtain the service life time of the power equipment corresponding to the power equipment.
The service life of the power device may be a time period corresponding to normal operation of the power device.
Specifically, for any one of the power devices, the retirement time of the power device corresponding to the used device is subtracted from the commissioning time of the power device, and the obtained time difference is the service life of the power device corresponding to the power device. For example: the retirement time of the power equipment is 12/31/2025, and the commissioning time of the power equipment is 11/1/2000, so that the service life of the power equipment is 15/2 months.
And step 306, determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electric power equipment according to the fault detection threshold constant and the service life of the electric power equipment.
Specifically, the service life of the electric power equipment is taken as the maximum value of the fault detection required time interval, the arithmetic mean p of the fault detection threshold time is calculated through the fault detection threshold constant, the minimum value of the fault detection required time interval is determined based on the arithmetic mean of the fault detection threshold time, and the fault detection required time interval [ pt, t) corresponding to the electric power equipment can be obtained.
In this embodiment, by further determining the fault detection required time interval corresponding to the power equipment after determining the fault detection threshold constant and the service life of the power equipment, the time interval corresponding to the preventive test that needs to be run can be defined, the preventive test executed at unnecessary time is reduced, and the efficiency of searching for the future fault probability corresponding to the power equipment is improved.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 4, inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the electrical equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the electrical equipment includes:
and 402, determining a standard value of the number of preventive tests corresponding to the power equipment according to the fault detection threshold constant.
The standard value of the number of preventive tests can be the number of times used for judging that the time of the preventive test is in the time interval in which the fault needs to be detected.
Specifically, an arithmetic mean p of the fault detection threshold time is calculated through a fault detection threshold constant, and a standard value of the number of preventive tests corresponding to the electric power equipment is established by using the arithmetic mean p of the fault detection threshold time, wherein the standard value of the number of preventive tests is established by the following expression: p/(1-p).
The number of preventive tests may be a number corresponding to the power equipment performing the preventive test.
Wherein the first sub-preventive test failure probability may be one of the combined parts (k < p/(1-p)) constituting the preventive test failure information (probability that the preventive test finds a failure in advance).
Specifically, if the number k of preventive tests that the electric power equipment has completed is smaller than the preventive test number criterion value P/(1-P), that is, only the time of 1 preventive test is in the fault detection required time interval, and the fault detection required time interval and the preventive test period are input to the electric power equipment loss distribution function, one of the combined parts P of the preventive test fault information (the probability that the preventive test finds a fault in advance) is obtained 1 The expression is:
P 1 ＝W(kT/p)-W(kT)
and 406, inputting the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the electrical equipment to obtain a second sub preventive test fault probability corresponding to the electrical equipment under the condition that the preventive test times of the electrical equipment are greater than the standard value of the preventive test times.
Wherein the second sub-preventive test failure probability may be one of the combined parts (k > p/(1-p)) constituting the preventive test failure information (probability that the preventive test finds a failure in advance).
Specifically, if the number k of preventive tests that the power equipment has completed is greater than the preventive test number criterion value P/(1-P), that is, if there are 2 or more preventive tests in the fault required inspection time zone, the maximum integer less than P/(1-P) is represented as M, and the preventive test cycle is input to the power equipment loss distribution function, one of the combined parts P of the preventive test fault information (the probability that the preventive test finds a fault in advance) is obtained 2 The expression is:
P 2 ＝1-W[(M+1)T]
and step 408, adding the first sub-preventive test fault probability and the second sub-preventive test fault probability to obtain preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment.
Specifically, the first sub-preventive test fault probability and the second sub-preventive test fault probability are added to obtain the preventive test fault information P corresponding to the power equipment, that is, the probability of the power equipment failing within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
In this embodiment, the situations corresponding to the number of preventive tests are distinguished by using the standard value of the number of preventive tests, and different condition quantities are input to the power equipment loss distribution function for calculation according to different situations, so that the calculation scheme can be implemented to different situations, and the accuracy of calculating the fault information of the preventive tests is improved.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 5, inputting the time interval of the fault requiring detection and the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the electrical equipment to obtain the first sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the electrical equipment includes:
The first function value may be a value calculated by the first sub-power device loss distribution function.
Specifically, if the number k of preventive tests that the power equipment has completed is smaller than the preventive test number standard value p/(1-p), that is, only 1 time of the preventive test is in the fault detection required time interval, the fault detection threshold constant, the preventive test period, and the number of preventive tests in the fault detection required time interval are input to the first sub-power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment, a first function value (one of the combination parts of the first sub-preventive test fault probability) corresponding to the power equipment is obtained, and the expression is: w (kT/p).
The second function value may be a value calculated by the second sub-power device loss distribution function.
Specifically, if the number k of preventive tests that the power equipment has completed is smaller than the preventive test number standard value p/(1-p), that is, only the time of 1 preventive test is in the fault detection required time interval, the preventive test period and the number of preventive tests are input to the second sub-power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment, and then a second function value (one of the combined parts of the first sub-preventive test fault probability) corresponding to the power equipment is obtained, where the expression is: w (kT).
Specifically, a first function value corresponding to the first sub-power equipment loss distribution function is used as a reduced number, and a second function value corresponding to the second sub-power equipment loss distribution function is used as a reduced number to be subtracted, so that one combined part P of the preventive test fault information (probability that the preventive test finds the fault in advance) is obtained 1 The expression is:
P 1 ＝W(kT/p)-W(kT)
in this embodiment, the first sub-preventive test failure probability corresponding to the electrical device is split into two different function values to be expressed, and different condition quantities are input to the corresponding electrical device loss distribution function respectively for the different function values to be calculated, so that the situation that the number of preventive tests is smaller than the standard value of the number of preventive tests can be considered, and the accuracy of calculating the preventive test failure information is improved.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 6, inputting the preventive test period to the power equipment loss distribution function to obtain a second sub preventive test failure probability corresponding to the power equipment includes:
Wherein, the maximum value of the preventive test times can be a maximum integral value which is smaller than the standard value of the preventive test times.
The third function value may be a value calculated by the third sub-power device loss distribution function.
Specifically, if the number k of preventive tests that the power equipment has completed is greater than the preventive test number standard value p/(1-p), that is, the time during which 2 or more preventive tests exist is in the fault required inspection time interval, the maximum integer (the maximum value of the number of preventive tests) smaller than p/(1-p) is represented as M, and the maximum integer value of the number of preventive tests and the preventive test period are input to the third sub-power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment, a third function value corresponding to the power equipment is obtained, where the expression is: w [ (M + 1) T ].
Specifically, the third function value corresponding to the loss distribution function of the third sub-power equipment is W [ (M + 1) T [ ]]Therefore, for the second sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment, the calculation formula is as follows: p 2 ＝1-W[(M+1)T]。
In this embodiment, the second sub-preventive test failure probability is calculated by introducing the maximum integer value of the number of preventive tests, and the calculation accuracy of the preventive test failure probability can be improved by further combining the relationship between the number of preventive tests greater than the standard value of the number of preventive tests and the number of preventive tests less than the standard value of the number of preventive tests.
In an embodiment, as shown in fig. 7, obtaining a power device loss distribution function corresponding to a power device according to the commissioning time and the decommissioning time of each power device includes:
The power equipment life sequence may be a sequence formed by arranging the service lives of the power equipment.
Specifically, the commissioning time and the decommissioning time of each power device of any type in the power grid system are counted, the decommissioning time of the power device is subtracted from the commissioning time of the power device for any power device to obtain the service life of the power device corresponding to each power device, the service lives of the power devices are arranged to obtain the power device service life sequence t corresponding to each power device i 。
And 704, arranging the elements in the life sequence of the power equipment from small to large, and calculating a bit rank sequence in the power equipment according to an arrangement result.
The rank-in-bit sequence in the power equipment may be a sequence corresponding to a value that the true failure probability of the power equipment should have at a confidence level of 50% when the N unit samples fail j times, or a sequence corresponding to the best estimation value of the unreliability.
Specifically, the power equipment life sequence t i Ordering from small to large, and calculating the rank sequence F (t) of the electric power equipment bits i ) The expression is:
where i represents the number of data, and n represents a total number of data, for example: 43 failure time points, i.e. n =43.
And step 706, constructing a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment according to the medium rank sequence.
In particular, the intermediate variable x is calculated from the median rank sequence i And y i The expressions are respectively as follows:
x i ＝ln(t i )，
according to the intermediate variable x i And y i Sequence of (1) calculation of x i And y i Average value of (2)
And
and second central moment l xx 、l yy 、l xy And calculate
And
the expressions are respectively:
according to
And
carrying out parameter estimation on parameters m and eta in a Weibull distribution expression, wherein the equation sets are respectively as follows:
according to
And
and after parameter estimation is carried out on the parameters m and eta, the parameters are substituted into a Weibull distribution expression, and then the power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any power equipment is constructed.
Fig. 8 shows parameter settings in a method for determining effectiveness of a power equipment preventive test based on a fault detection required interval.
In this embodiment, a corresponding power equipment loss distribution function is constructed for power equipment of the same type by using weibull distribution, so that the adaptability of the power equipment loss distribution function can be improved by using characteristics of the weibull distribution, and the prediction accuracy of the probability of failure occurring within a preset time period can be further improved.
It should be understood that, although the steps in the flowcharts related to the embodiments are shown in sequence as indicated by the arrows, the steps are not necessarily executed in sequence as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not performed in the exact order shown and described, and may be performed in other orders, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Moreover, at least a part of the steps in the flowcharts related to the above embodiments may include multiple steps or multiple stages, which are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, and the order of performing the steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but may be performed alternately or alternately with other steps or at least a part of the steps or stages in other steps.
Based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the application also provides a device for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the electrical equipment based on the fault detection required interval, which is used for realizing the method for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the electrical equipment based on the fault detection required interval. The implementation scheme for solving the problem provided by the apparatus is similar to the implementation scheme described in the method, so the specific limitations in the following one or more embodiments of the apparatus for determining the effectiveness of the power equipment preventative test based on the fault detection-required interval may refer to the limitations on the method for determining the effectiveness of the power equipment preventative test based on the fault detection-required interval, and are not described herein again.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 9, there is provided an apparatus for determining effectiveness of a preventive test of an electrical device based on a fault detection required interval, including: an electrical device operation parameter obtaining module 902, an electrical device loss distribution function obtaining module 904, a fault detection required time interval determining module 906, a preventive test period obtaining module 908, and a preventive test fault information obtaining module 910, wherein:
an electrical device operating parameter obtaining module 902, configured to obtain electrical device operating parameters corresponding to electrical devices of the same type in an electrical power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data;
a power equipment loss distribution function obtaining module 904, configured to obtain a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one power equipment according to the commissioning time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment;
a fault detection-required time interval determination module 906, configured to determine a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical device according to the electrical device description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment;
a preventive test cycle obtaining module 908, configured to obtain a preventive test cycle corresponding to the electrical device according to the electrical device operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data;
a preventive test fault information obtaining module 910, configured to input a time interval in which a fault needs to be detected and a preventive test period to a loss distribution function of the electrical equipment, so as to obtain preventive test fault information corresponding to the electrical equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
In one embodiment, the time interval to detect fault determination module 906 is further configured to determine a fault detection threshold constant corresponding to the electrical devices according to the electrical device manufacturing description information and the electrical device operating description information respectively corresponding to the electrical devices; subtracting the commissioning time of the power equipment from the decommissioning time of the power equipment to obtain the service life time of the power equipment corresponding to the power equipment; and determining a fault detection required time interval corresponding to the power equipment according to the fault detection threshold constant and the service life of the power equipment.
In one embodiment, the preventative test fault information obtaining module 910 is further configured to determine a standard value of the number of preventative tests corresponding to the electrical device according to a fault detection threshold constant; under the condition that the number of preventive tests of the power equipment is smaller than a standard value of the number of preventive tests, inputting a fault detection required time interval and a preventive test period to a loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain a first sub preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment; under the condition that the number of preventive tests of the power equipment is larger than a standard value of the number of preventive tests, inputting the preventive tests into a loss distribution function of the power equipment periodically to obtain a second sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment; and adding the first sub preventive test fault probability and the second sub preventive test fault probability to obtain preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment.
In an embodiment, the preventive test fault information obtaining module 910 is further configured to input a fault detection threshold constant of a time interval in which a fault needs to be detected, a preventive test period, and a number of times of the preventive test into a first sub-power device loss distribution function corresponding to the power device, so as to obtain a first function value corresponding to the power device; inputting the preventive test period and the preventive test times into a second sub-power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment to obtain a second function value corresponding to the power equipment; and subtracting a second function value corresponding to the second sub-power equipment loss distribution function from the first function value corresponding to the first sub-power equipment loss distribution function to obtain a first sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment.
In an embodiment, the preventive test failure information obtaining module 910 is further configured to input the maximum integer value of the preventive test times and the preventive test period to a third sub-power device loss distribution function corresponding to the power device, so as to obtain a third function value corresponding to the power device, where the maximum integer value of the preventive test times is smaller than the maximum integer value corresponding to the standard value of the preventive test times; and calculating a difference value between 1 and a third function value corresponding to the loss distribution function of the third sub-power equipment to obtain a second sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment.
In an embodiment, the power device loss distribution function obtaining module 904 is further configured to obtain a power device life sequence corresponding to each power device according to the commissioning time and the decommissioning time of each power device; arranging elements in the power equipment life sequence from small to large, and calculating a bit rank sequence in the power equipment according to an arrangement result; and constructing a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment according to the medium rank sequence.
All or part of each module in the device for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the power equipment based on the fault section to be checked can be realized by software, hardware and a combination of the software and the hardware. The modules can be embedded in a hardware form or independent from a processor in the computer device, and can also be stored in a memory in the computer device in a software form, so that the processor can call and execute operations corresponding to the modules.
In one embodiment, a computer device is provided, which may be a server, and its internal structure diagram may be as shown in fig. 10. The computer device includes a processor, a memory, and a network interface connected by a system bus. Wherein the processor of the computer device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the computer device includes a non-volatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system, a computer program, and a database. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The database of the computer device is used for storing server data. The network interface of the computer device is used for communicating with an external terminal through a network connection. The computer program is executed by a processor to realize a method for determining the effectiveness of the preventive test of the electric power equipment based on the fault detection required interval.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the architecture shown in fig. 10 is merely a block diagram of some of the structures associated with the disclosed aspects and is not intended to limit the computing devices to which the disclosed aspects apply, as particular computing devices may include more or less components than those shown, or may combine certain components, or have a different arrangement of components.
In one embodiment, a computer device is further provided, which includes a memory and a processor, the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of the above method embodiments when executing the computer program.
In an embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, in which a computer program is stored which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments.
In one embodiment, a computer program product or computer program is provided that includes computer instructions stored in a computer-readable storage medium. The computer instructions are read by a processor of a computer device from a computer-readable storage medium, and the computer instructions are executed by the processor to cause the computer device to perform the steps in the above-mentioned method embodiments.
It should be noted that, the user information (including but not limited to user device information, user personal information, etc.) and data (including but not limited to data for analysis, stored data, presented data, etc.) referred to in the present application are information and data authorized by the user or sufficiently authorized by each party.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by hardware instructions of a computer program, which can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, database, or other medium used in the embodiments provided herein may include at least one of non-volatile and volatile memory. The nonvolatile Memory may include Read-Only Memory (ROM), magnetic tape, floppy disk, flash Memory, optical Memory, high-density embedded nonvolatile Memory, resistive Random Access Memory (ReRAM), magnetic Random Access Memory (MRAM), ferroelectric Random Access Memory (FRAM), phase Change Memory (PCM), graphene Memory, and the like. Volatile Memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM), external cache Memory, and the like. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM can take many forms, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM) or Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), among others. The databases referred to in various embodiments provided herein may include at least one of relational and non-relational databases. The non-relational database may include, but is not limited to, a block chain based distributed database, and the like. The processors referred to in the embodiments provided herein may be general purpose processors, central processing units, graphics processors, digital signal processors, programmable logic devices, quantum computing based data processing logic devices, etc., without limitation.
The technical features of the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described, but should be considered as the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present application, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present application. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, which falls within the scope of protection of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present application shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for determining effectiveness of a preventive test of electrical equipment based on a fault section needing to be detected is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring power equipment operation parameters corresponding to power equipment of the same type in a power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data;
obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one of the power equipment according to the operation time of each power equipment and the retirement time of each power equipment;
determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information which respectively correspond to the power equipment;
obtaining a preventive test period corresponding to the power equipment according to the power equipment operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data;
inputting the time interval of the fault to be detected and the preventive test period to the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining a fault detection required time interval corresponding to the electrical device according to the at least one piece of electrical device description information includes:
determining fault detection threshold constants corresponding to the power equipment according to power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment;
subtracting the commissioning time of the power equipment from the decommissioning time of the power equipment to obtain the service life time of the power equipment corresponding to the power equipment;
and determining a fault detection required time interval corresponding to the power equipment according to the fault detection threshold constant and the service life of the power equipment.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the inputting the time interval of the fault requiring inspection and the preventive test period into the power equipment loss distribution function to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment comprises:
determining a standard value of the number of preventive tests corresponding to the power equipment according to the fault detection threshold constant;
when the number of preventive tests of the power equipment is smaller than the standard value of the number of preventive tests, inputting the time interval of fault detection and the preventive test period into the loss distribution function of the power equipment to obtain a first sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment;
when the number of preventive tests of the power equipment is larger than the standard value of the number of preventive tests, inputting the preventive tests into the loss distribution function of the power equipment periodically to obtain a second sub preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment;
and adding the first sub-preventive test fault probability and the second sub-preventive test fault probability to obtain the preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the electrical equipment loss distribution function includes a first sub-electrical equipment loss distribution function, a second sub-electrical equipment loss distribution function and a third sub-electrical equipment loss distribution function, and the inputting the fault required detection time interval and the preventive test period into the electrical equipment loss distribution function to obtain a first sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the electrical equipment comprises:
inputting a fault detection threshold constant of the fault time interval to be detected, the preventive test period and the preventive test times into a first sub-power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment to obtain a first function value corresponding to the power equipment;
inputting the preventive test period and the preventive test times into a second sub-power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment to obtain a second function value corresponding to the power equipment;
and subtracting a second function value corresponding to the second sub-power equipment loss distribution function from a first function value corresponding to the first sub-power equipment loss distribution function to obtain a first sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment.
5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the inputting the preventive test period to the power equipment loss distribution function to obtain a corresponding second sub preventive test failure probability of the power equipment comprises:
inputting a maximum integer value of preventive tests and the preventive test period into a third sub-power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment to obtain a third function value corresponding to the power equipment, wherein the maximum integer value of the preventive tests is smaller than the maximum integer value corresponding to the standard value of the preventive tests;
and calculating a difference value between 1 and a third function value corresponding to the loss distribution function of the third sub-power equipment to obtain a second sub-preventive test fault probability corresponding to the power equipment.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein obtaining the power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment according to each of the power equipment operation time and each of the power equipment retirement time comprises:
obtaining a power equipment life sequence corresponding to each power equipment according to the operation time and the retirement time of each power equipment;
arranging the elements in the power equipment life sequence from small to large, and calculating a bit rank sequence in the power equipment according to an arrangement result;
and constructing a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to the power equipment according to the medium rank sequence.
7. A device for determining effectiveness of preventive tests of electrical equipment based on fault detection-required intervals is characterized by comprising:
the electric equipment operation parameter acquisition module is used for acquiring electric equipment operation parameters corresponding to the same type of electric equipment in the electric power system; the power equipment operation parameters comprise power equipment commissioning time, power equipment retirement time, power equipment description information, power equipment operation characteristic data and preventive test standard data;
the power equipment loss distribution function obtaining module is used for obtaining a power equipment loss distribution function corresponding to any one piece of power equipment according to the operation time of each piece of power equipment and the retirement time of each piece of power equipment;
the fault detection-required time interval determining module is used for determining a fault detection-required time interval corresponding to the electrical equipment according to the electrical equipment description information; the power equipment description information is obtained by integrating power equipment manufacturing description information and power equipment operation description information respectively corresponding to the power equipment;
a preventive test cycle obtaining module, configured to obtain a preventive test cycle corresponding to the power device according to the power device operation characteristic data and the preventive test standard data;
a preventive test fault information obtaining module, configured to input the fault detection required time interval and the preventive test period to the power equipment loss distribution function, so as to obtain preventive test fault information corresponding to the power equipment; the preventive test fault probability represents the probability of the power equipment having a fault within a preset time period after the current time under the condition of normal operation.
8. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 6.
9. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 6.
10. A computer program product comprising a computer program, characterized in that the computer program realizes the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 6 when executed by a processor.
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