CN101320449A - Power distribution network estimation method based on combination appraisement method - Google Patents

Power distribution network estimation method based on combination appraisement method Download PDF

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CN101320449A
CN101320449A CNA2008100406556A CN200810040655A CN101320449A CN 101320449 A CN101320449 A CN 101320449A CN A2008100406556 A CNA2008100406556 A CN A2008100406556A CN 200810040655 A CN200810040655 A CN 200810040655A CN 101320449 A CN101320449 A CN 101320449A
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distribution network
power distribution
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韦钢
刘杨
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Shanghai University of Electric Power
University of Shanghai for Science and Technology
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Shanghai University of Electric Power
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Abstract

The present invention relates to a distribution network evaluation method based on a combined evaluation method. The combined evaluation method is applied in distribution network evaluation, the prior comprehensive evaluation methods are applied comprehensively, and then the results of various kinds of evaluation methods with deviation are combined, so the distribution network evaluation method considers subjective and objective factors and has the advantages of various kinds of evaluation methods and has considerable reference function for concrete distribution network valuation at field, and the distribution network evaluation method can become the reliable and practical evaluation method for the distribution network planning personnel to evaluate and can greatly improve the standard of the prior distribution network planning comprehensive decision work. At the same time, the distribution network evaluation system can solve a series of practical problems in the distribution network evaluation very well, can direct and arrange scientific and reasonable distribution network constructing and rebuilding projects in practical evaluation and planning work and ensures the reliable and economical operation of the distribution network, thereby bringing great economic benefit.

Description

Power distribution network appraisal procedure based on combination evaluation method
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method of urban distribution network assessment, particularly a kind of method to city power distribution electrical network combination evaluation.
Background technology
The power distribution network assessment is the power distribution network at history, present situation, transformation and planning different phase, in conjunction with power distribution network management, operation and its construction level, and the national economic development of power distribution network region and urban planning situation, adopt the modern system analysis theories, formulate corresponding power distribution network appraisal procedure, evaluation criteria and working specification, form evaluation system and standard unified, standard.On this basis, the different phase power distribution network is carried out system, analysis of science and assessment, the comprehensive assessment result who obtains can be distribution network planning, management, operation and construction department full and accurate, strong decision support means is provided, help to improve power distribution network synthesis strength and fund utilization ratio, make power distribution network really reach rational and orderly and sustainable development.The electrical network assessment mainly comprises the comprehensive evaluation of electric power network technique economic rationality, the power supply capacity assessment, and the judge of electric network reliability, and the suggestion of the priority of Electric Power Network Planning scheme and construction transformation project thereof etc.Assessment result changes into quantitatively from qualitative, has very high operability.
The method that is applied to the power distribution network assessment at present mainly contains fuzzy analysis method, analytical hierarchy process etc.These methods have added a large amount of decision maker's subjective factor in evaluation process, as subjective weight, judgment matrix etc., cause the uncertainty of assessment result easily.But, if adopt objective tax power or other integrated evaluating method, then ignored decision-maker's subjective judgment, cause the limitation of assessment result easily.
Summary of the invention
The present invention be directed to the method subjective uncertainty and the objective circumscribed problem of existing power distribution network assessment, a kind of power distribution network assessment side based on combination evaluation method has been proposed, combination evaluation method is applied in the power distribution network assessment, set up a cover multiattribute multiple goal power distribution network evaluation system, this system is estimated the quality of multizone power distribution network with the size ordering of combination evaluation value, the power distribution network evaluation system has made up a whole set of power distribution network synthesis evaluation indice, and this index energy collecting is science, each attribute key element of concentrated expression power distribution network intactly relatively; Use existing integrated evaluating method all sidedly, result to several evaluation methods devious makes up then, the advantage of having forgiven master, objective factor and several evaluation methods, this system theory is clear, compared with other methods is science, more comprehensively more, for the power distribution network assessment has proposed a brand-new thinking and a method.
Technical scheme of the present invention is: a kind of power distribution network appraisal procedure based on combination evaluation method, described power distribution network appraisal procedure comprises the following steps:
(1) collects the power distribution network data, carry out statistical study, and whole assessment district is divided into several zonules according to the character of power distribution network with by compass of competency;
(2), set up the index system structure of power distribution network assessment to every index analysis of evaluation item;
(3), gather in the power distribution network assessment needed data in the index system, and quantitative data and qualitative data are handled respectively according to the target of power distribution network assessment;
(4) respectively power distribution network is assessed with the single evaluation method earlier;
(5) assessment result of each single evaluation method is carried out fuzzy cluster analysis, determine the compatible method collection,, draw the combination evaluation conclusion a plurality of assessment result collection;
(6) the combination evaluation result is carried out consistency check, until reaching a conclusion.
Definite method of described compatible method collection is as follows:
Definition: possess the set M that maybe can be converted into all methods that possess comparability between its conclusion when the utilization distinct methods is estimated same group objects; Be applicable under the given test stone condition by the set M1 of all evaluation methods of evaluation object, and M 1 ⊆ M ;
M={m 1, m 2..., m s, object set X={x to be evaluated 1, x 2..., x n, can obtain evaluation conclusion vector u with i kind method to n object evaluation to be evaluated i=(u I1, u I2..., u In) T, (i=1,2 ..., s);
1), above-mentioned S evaluation conclusion vector done fuzzy cluster analysis, we always can be divided into two classes in the situation of given threshold values ε, and the first kind is only by the evaluation conclusion u of k kind method k=(u K1, u K2..., u Kn) TForm, second class is by removing u kAll vectors are in addition formed.
2), order
u ‾ j = Σ i = 1 i ≠ k s u ij , ( j = 1,2 , · · · · · · , n ) - - - ( 1 )
Then can obtain the average vector u=(u of the second class evaluation conclusion 1, u 2... ..u n) T, to represent the second class evaluation conclusion overall.
3), ask u kCorrelation coefficient r with u kUnder certain level of significance according to r kCheck u kWith the correlativity of u, and then judge whether the k kind method and second class methods are all compatible.
4) if assay is thought u kClosely related with u, judge that then the S kind method among the set M all has compatibility, M is compatible method collection M1; Otherwise judge that k kind method is a kind of incompatible method among the M and it is rejected, and tests by above step to S-1 kind method remaining among the M, then until finding compatible method collection M1 again from M.
Described to a plurality of assessment result collection, be in different compatible evaluation conclusions, to seek consistent or compromise, make the population deviation between the evaluation vector of the most satisfied definite combination evaluation vector and all compatible methods be minimum.Described consistency check is meant whether the most satisfied combination evaluation of check concentrates the evaluation conclusion of all methods compatible on the whole with compatible method.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is: the present invention has bigger reference role to the concrete power distribution network assessment in scene, can become the distribution network planning staff and assess comparatively reliable, practical appraisal procedure, will greatly improve the level of existing distribution network planning decision making package work.This power distribution network evaluation system can solve a series of practical problemss in the power distribution network assessment well simultaneously, in the assessment of reality and planning, can instruct and arrange scientific and reasonable power distribution network construction and transformation project, guarantee reliable, the economic operation of power distribution network, the economic benefit of bringing thus will be huge.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 the present invention is based on power distribution network index system schematic block diagram in the power distribution network appraisal procedure of combination evaluation method.
Embodiment
Step based on the power distribution network appraisal procedure of combination evaluation method is as follows:
(1) collects the power distribution network data, carry out statistical study, and whole assessment district is divided into several zonules according to the character of power distribution network with by compass of competency;
In the actual power distribution network evaluation process,, bring influence to the conclusion of power distribution network assessment if assess the weakness zone that the power distribution network in very big zone may be ignored a certain index on the whole.Therefore, can several zonules be divided in assessment, respectively the present situation of each sub-electrical network be made comprehensive evaluation, to find out the weak link of whole assessment district power distribution network with the assessment district according to the character of power distribution network with by compass of competency.
(2), set up the index system structure of power distribution network assessment to every index analysis of evaluation item;
Carry out the power distribution network assessment; every index of necessary analysis-by-synthesis power distribution network; reflect the attribute key element that power distribution network is relevant comprehensively; for example: main transformer " N-1 " percent of pass; radius of electricity supply; rate of qualified voltage; via net loss; the Unit Assets delivery; the position in storehouse situation; the harmony of power distribution network; environmental protection or the like; these attribute key elements are intricate; can't directly represent with concrete data; for this reason; need set up a series of evaluation indice; mapping relations by evaluation indice and each key element of scheme attribute; the attribute key element that comprehensively reflects each Electric Power Network Planning scheme finally reaches the purpose of each power distribution network of comprehensive evaluation.
The comprehensive evaluation index collection that makes up a cover science at first should if evaluation indice is not comprehensive, just can't be made comprehensive, whole judgement to evaluation object according to estimating the each side situation that purpose reflects relevant evaluation object; Secondly, can not be too much between evaluation index overlapping, too much overlapping meeting is misled by this evaluation index easily, causes the distortion of evaluation result; At last, the needed data of parameter should be easy collections, and index is calculated easily or estimated, otherwise this index just can't use, and have also just lost practical significance.Therefore, the present invention plans to build upright power distribution network assessment comprehensive evaluation index collection, and the hierarchical structure of its comprehensive evaluation decision set is seen power distribution network index system schematic block diagram shown in Figure 1, and these indexs are each attribute key element of science, comprehensive description and reflection power distribution network comparatively.
(3), gather in the power distribution network assessment needed data in the index system, and quantitative data and qualitative data are handled respectively according to the target of power distribution network assessment;
Comprehensive evaluation index is concentrated and included two types achievement data: quantitative data and qualitative data, their processing mode is inequality.
Quantitative data is handled: quantitative data is exactly an index of representing its respective attributes key element easily with concrete numerical value, as the main transformer N-1 percent of pass in the decision making package index set among the present invention, via net loss, high pressure subscriber station number or the like.Adopt combination evaluation method that power distribution network is assessed, at first must use traditional integrated evaluating method and assess, adopt corresponding disposal route when therefore selecting different evaluation methods for use.
Qualitative data is handled: qualitative data mostly is fuzzy data, is difficult for by concrete numerical value it being quantized.The present invention handles by Delphi method the data of this type, promptly use domain expert's knowledge, wisdom, experience, information and values, the decision making package index of tentatively drawing up is carried out anonymity appraises through discussion, suggestion for revision is proposed, and provide the importance degree (seeing Table 1) of each index by the sum of series value of prior set quota importance degree, according to expert's number and the importance degree that each expert provides, get weighted mean value then, be the quantized value of this qualitative index.
Table 1 qualitative data degree of quantization
Incomparable good (many) Extremely good (many) Very good (many) Significantly good (many) Comparatively good (many) Generally
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Relatively poor (lacking) Significance difference (lacking) Non-constant (lacking) Extremely poor (lacking) Have no means of putting into words poor (lacking)
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
(4) respectively power distribution network is assessed with the single evaluation method earlier;
Comprehensive evaluation theory is widely used in the power distribution network assessment, as: fuzzy overall evaluation, analytical hierarchy process, desirable method, grey relational grade method etc.These theoretical method bases are dark, and therefore applied range, is at first selected for use several evaluation methods that power distribution network is assessed, and the assessment result of every kind of evaluation method is sorted.
(5) assessment result of each single evaluation method is carried out fuzzy cluster analysis, determine the compatible method collection,, draw the combination evaluation conclusion a plurality of assessment result collection;
At first carry out fuzzy cluster analysis, determine the compatible method collection, reject this and assess inapplicable evaluation method according to the assessment result of several evaluation methods; Then, choose the combination evaluation model, draw the combination evaluation conclusion a plurality of assessment result collection.
(6) the combination evaluation result is carried out consistency check, until reaching a conclusion.
Combination evaluation result in (5) is carried out consistency check, until reaching a conclusion.Sort according to the performance of combination evaluation conclusion, choose quality, for follow-up work provides foundation a plurality of regional power grids.
Theoretical foundation to appraisal procedure:
One, determines the compatible method collection
In practice, because different its mechanism of evaluation method and the form of expression of evaluation conclusion are not quite similar, have comparability so that differ to establish a capital between the distinct methods, and be difficult to make up in incomparable method reality.Therefore, we at first should define comparable method collection before definition compatible method collection.So-called comparable method collection is meant when the utilization distinct methods is estimated same group objects to possess the set M that maybe can be converted into all methods that possess comparability between its conclusion.So-called comparability is meant that the evaluation conclusion of distinct methods is to represent with the index of congeniality (maybe can be converted into congeniality).If generally speaking distinct methods can or directly provide with the ordering form with evaluation of estimate performance one group of its evaluation conclusion of object to be evaluated, its conclusion all can make it to have comparability by certain mathematic(al) manipulation (as normalization etc.).At this paper on the basis of above definition the compatible method collection is defined as: under given test stone condition, be applicable to by the set M1 of all evaluation methods of evaluation object, and M 1 ⊆ M .
If to certain class evaluation problem comparable method collection M={m 1, m 2..., m s, object set X={x to be evaluated 1, x 2..., x n, can obtain evaluation conclusion vector u with i kind method to n object evaluation to be evaluated i=(u I1, u I2..., u In) T, (i=1,2 ..., s).Here the evaluation conclusion vector of establishing above distinct methods according to definition has comparability (or being converted into comparable conclusion).This paper determines and can carry out according to the following steps about the compatible method collection:
1), above-mentioned S evaluation conclusion vector done fuzzy cluster analysis, we always can be divided into two classes in the situation of given threshold values ε, and the first kind is only by the evaluation conclusion u of k kind method k=(u K1, u K2..., u Kn) TForm, second class is by removing u kAll vectors are in addition formed.
2), order
u ‾ j = Σ i = 1 i ≠ k s u ij , ( j = 1,2 , · · · · · · , n ) - - - ( 1 )
Then can obtain the average vector u=(u of the second class evaluation conclusion 1, u 2... ..u n) T, to represent the second class evaluation conclusion overall.
3), ask u kCorrelation coefficient r with u kUnder certain level of significance according to r kCheck u kWith the correlativity of u, and then judge whether the k kind method and second class methods are all compatible.
4) if assay is thought u kClosely related with u, judge that then the S kind method among the set M all has compatibility, M is compatible method collection M1; Otherwise judge that k kind method is a kind of incompatible method among the M and it is rejected, and tests by above step to S-1 kind method remaining among the M, then until finding compatible method collection M 1 again from M.
Two, based on the combination evaluation method of method collectionization
The determining of compatible method collection makes combination evaluation possess starting condition, establishes compatible method collection M 1={ m 1, m 2..., m rIn r kind evaluation method is arranged.Wherein i kind evaluation method to the evaluation conclusion of n object is, u i=(u I1, u I2..., u In) T, (i=1,2 ..., s), so just exist a compatible evaluation conclusion collection u={u 1, u 2..., u r.We at first propose the notion of " possible combination evaluation collection ", and it is that any convex line by the compatible evaluation conclusion of r constitutes, even
u 0 = Σ i = 1 r w i u i - - - ( 2 )
Here with u 0Be considered as a kind of possible combination evaluation vector, it all based on compatible evaluation conclusion collection { u 0 | u 0 = Σ i = 1 r w i u i , Here 〉=0, Σ i = 1 r w i = 1 } The combination evaluation collection that expresses possibility.
The present invention is to seek consistent in different compatible evaluation conclusions or compromise about the guiding theory of evaluation method collectionization, makes the population deviation between the evaluation vector of the most satisfied definite combination evaluation vector and all compatible methods be minimum.So select following Nonlinear programming Model for use:
Min ( w 1 , w 2 , . . . . . . , w r ) Σ i = 1 r | | u 0 - u i | | 2
s . t . Σ i = 1 r w i = 1 , w i ≥ 0 , ( i = 1,2 , . . . . . . r ) - - - ( 3 )
Find the solution above Nonlinear programming Model, can try to achieve and the most satisfied combination evaluation u * = ( u 1 * , u 2 * , . . . . . . u n * ) T The most satisfied corresponding combined weights vector w * = ( w 1 * , w 2 * , . . . . . . w r * ) T . We can try to achieve the most satisfied combination evaluation like this
u * = Σ i = 1 r w i * u i - - - ( 4 )
Three, the consistency check of combination evaluation conclusion
The consistency check of combination evaluation conclusion is meant the combination evaluation u that check is the most satisfied *Whether concentrate the evaluation conclusion of all methods compatible on the whole with compatible method.
R evaluation conclusion vector and the most satisfied combination evaluation u to the r kind method among the compatible method collection M1 *Do fuzzy cluster analysis.Under the situation of given threshold values ε, we always can be divided into two classes, if a vector of being told separately is not the most satisfied combination evaluation u *, judge that then the most satisfied combination evaluation conclusion and r evaluation conclusion of the r kind method among the M 1 have compatibility generally; Otherwise, ask the most satisfied combination evaluation u *Correlation coefficient r with the average vector u of r evaluation conclusion of r kind method among the compatible method collection M1 0, under certain level of signifiance according to r 0Check u *With the correlativity of u, and then judge whether the evaluation conclusion of the most satisfied combination evaluation conclusion and compatible method is all compatible, if assay obtains u *Closely related with u, judge that then the evaluation conclusion of the most satisfied combination evaluation conclusion and compatible method is totally compatible; Otherwise, incompatible, should seek the method combination again, up to satisfied conclusion is arranged.
Instance analysis:
The power distribution network evaluation system based on combination evaluation method that the present invention will propose is applied in the actual power distribution network assessment.The power distribution network in this assessment district is divided into five sub-electrical networks.The power distribution network evaluation system that utilization the present invention proposes is assessed five word electrical networks, the score of having calculated five word electrical networks that this area line ordering of going forward side by side, it the results are shown in Table 2, simultaneously for the result of calculation of the model among the present invention relatively, also listed the evaluation of simple deviation weighted comprehensive, desirable method in the table 2, closed the result of calculation of evaluation method based on the combining of entropy, principal component analysis (PCA), fuzzy overall evaluation.
Table 2 power distribution network assessment result
Figure A20081004065500131
According to the evaluation result of five sub-electrical networks in the table 2 as can be known, use traditional appraisal procedure and carry out the power distribution network assessment, there is certain difference in ranking results; The ranking results of application combination evaluation method is followed successively by: E, B, C, D, A, and wherein the E regional distribution network is compared other zone has than remarkable advantages, the power distribution network poor-performing in A, D zone; In application combination evaluation method process, because principal component analysis (PCA) is incompatible with other four kinds of methods, this is assessed its rejecting.Therefore, the utilization the present invention of this area carries out the power distribution network assessment, has finally found out the weakness zone of power distribution network, for distribution network planning provides foundation.
Combination evaluation method among the present invention, theoretical clear, compared with other methods is science, more objective more, and does not ignore subjective factor; Determining of compatible method collection effectively screened traditional power distribution network appraisal procedure; The combination evaluation conclusion has overcome the contradiction of subjective factor and objective factor; Make the population deviation between the evaluation vector of the most satisfied definite combination evaluation vector and all compatible methods be minimum based on the Nonlinear programming Model of method collectionization, objectively reflected the situation of power distribution network; Example calculation proves that the present invention is better than other method, and every index all is better than other method.
Need the scheme number of the decision making package planned generally can (not be less than 10) too much in the urban power network planning work of reality, the inventive method can be suitable for.

Claims (4)

1, a kind of power distribution network appraisal procedure based on combination evaluation method, described power distribution network appraisal procedure comprises the following steps:
(1) collects the power distribution network data, carry out statistical study, and whole assessment district is divided into several zonules according to the character of power distribution network with by compass of competency;
(2), set up the index system structure of power distribution network assessment to every index analysis of evaluation item;
(3), gather in the power distribution network assessment needed data in the index system, and quantitative data and qualitative data are handled respectively according to the target of power distribution network assessment;
(4) respectively power distribution network is assessed with the single evaluation method earlier;
(5) assessment result of each single evaluation method is carried out fuzzy cluster analysis, determine the compatible method collection,, draw the combination evaluation conclusion a plurality of assessment result collection;
(6) the combination evaluation result is carried out consistency check, until reaching a conclusion.
2, according to the described power distribution network appraisal procedure based on combination evaluation method of claim 1, definite method of wherein said compatible method collection is as follows:
Definition: possess the set M that maybe can be converted into all methods that possess comparability between its conclusion when the utilization distinct methods is estimated same group objects; Be applicable under the given test stone condition by the set M1 of all evaluation methods of evaluation object, and M 1 ⊆ M ;
M={m 1, m 2..., m s, object set X={x to be evaluated 1, x 2..., x n, can obtain evaluation conclusion vector u with i kind method to n object evaluation to be evaluated i=(u I1, u I2..., u In) T, (i=1,2 ..., s);
1), above-mentioned S evaluation conclusion vector done fuzzy cluster analysis, we always can be divided into two classes in the situation of given threshold values ε, and the first kind is only by the evaluation conclusion u of k kind method k=(u K1, u K2..., u Kn) TForm, second class is by removing u kAll vectors are in addition formed.
2), order
u ‾ j = Σ i = 1 i ≠ k s u ij , (j＝1，2，……，n) (1)
Then can obtain the average vector u=(u of the second class evaluation conclusion 1, u 2... u n) T, to represent the second class evaluation conclusion overall.
3), ask u kCorrelation coefficient r with u kUnder certain level of significance according to r kCheck u kWith the correlativity of u, and then judge whether the k kind method and second class methods are all compatible.
4) if assay is thought u kClosely related with u, judge that then the S kind method among the set M all has compatibility, M is compatible method collection M1; Otherwise judge that k kind method is a kind of incompatible method among the M and it is rejected, and tests by above step to S-1 kind method remaining among the M, then until finding compatible method collection M1 again from M.
3, according to the described power distribution network appraisal procedure of claim 1 based on combination evaluation method, wherein said to a plurality of assessment result collection, be in different compatible evaluation conclusions, to seek consistent or compromise, make the population deviation between the evaluation vector of the most satisfied definite combination evaluation vector and all compatible methods be minimum.
4, according to the described power distribution network appraisal procedure based on combination evaluation method of claim 1, wherein said consistency check is meant whether the most satisfied combination evaluation of check concentrates the evaluation conclusion of all methods compatible on the whole with compatible method.
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CN107220498A (en) * 2017-05-26 2017-09-29 中南大学 A kind of mechanical material evaluation method and its system
CN108734404A (en) * 2018-05-24 2018-11-02 华南理工大学 A kind of intelligent grid information management system complexity evaluation method and system
CN110264032A (en) * 2019-05-08 2019-09-20 上海电力学院 A kind of acquisition methods of direct current distribution Plan mode result
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